Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-Decade ...
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Transcript of Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-Decade ...
Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicagofor the U.S. Department of Energy
Work sponsored by[sponsor name for logo inserted above]
Status of Hybrid Light Duty Vehicles in the U.S., Mid-
Decade, 2000-2010By Danilo J. Santini
Center for Transportation Research
For presentation at the Annex I Experts Meeting,
under the International Energy Agency Implementing Agreement
for Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Technologies and ProgramsRome ItalyOct. 5, 2005
2
EPA’s “Green” Top 10 Includes 5 Hybrid Powertrains, 3 Hybrid Models
(4 cyl)2FORD Focus(4 cyl)2MAZDA 3(4 cyl)1.8NISSAN Sentra(4 cyl)1.8NISSAN Sentra(4 cyl)2.3FORD Escape HEV(4 cyl)1.7HONDA Civic (Compressed Natural Gas)(4 cyl)2.3FORD Escape HEV(4 cyl)1.3HONDA Civic Hybrid(4 cyl)1.3HONDA Civic Hybrid(4 cyl)1.5TOYOTA PriusCylDisplModel
3
Where Available, HEVs are “Greenest”within Size Class
13Ford E150Large Van 67Nissan Frontier Pickup 67Honda OdysseyMinivan 89.5Ford Escape HybridSUV
Trucks
67Toyota AvalonLarge car79.5Ford FocusStation Wagon109.5Toyota Prius HybridMidsize Car109.5Honda Civic HybridSmall Car
Cars
GreenhouseScore
EPA Air ScoreMake and ModelEPA Size Class
4
The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance in a Vehicle Body Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration
> 40
% d
eclin
e vs
. gas
olin
eThe Estimate of HEV Fuel Consumption Reduction (or Fuel Economy Gain) Depends on Basis of Comparison
36%
5
Weight and Fuel Consumption Comparisons of HEV with Non-HEV Model Depends on Who Does the Comparison
Note: The Prius does not have a direct ‘non-hybrid’ version, is not included in comparisons.* CO2 reduction based on comparison of base model to HEV EPA ratings
26.5 % [36%]7.4 %4365 AWD4065 AWDLexus 400H (Parallel – Series)
36.7 % [58%]13.3 %3792 AWD3346 AWDFord Escape (Parallel – Series)
23.7%[31.1%]4.5 %35013349Honda Accord (IMA)
30.6 %[44.1%]2.7 %26842612Honda Civic (IMA)
CO2Reduction*(Percent)
[MPG increase]
WeightIncrease(Percent)
Weight of Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (pounds)
Weight of Base Vehicle
(pounds)Vehicle
Center for Automotive Research Estimates, 2005
6
Hybrid Technologies Vary
Center for Automotive Research Comparison of Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Source: Company Literature
288 (V)Front: 123ks/109kw (Gen)Rear: 50 kw
Parallel – Series (AWD)
Lexus 400h
330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)Parallel – Series (AWD)
Escape
202 (V)49kw/10kw (Gen)Parallel – SeriesPrius THS II (2004)
274 (V)33kw/10kw (Gen)Parallel – SeriesPrius THS I (2000)
144 (V)12kwIMA Accord
144 (V)10kwIMA Civic
Battery(Volts)
Electric Motor/Generator(GEN)TypeModel
7
Hybrid Technologies Vary
Source: ORNL/TM-2004-181
8
Hybrids and diesels are expected to deliver both higher MPG and more torque.
• Hybrids
• Diesels
35%15%Full Lg. Trk.
40%20%Full Car & Sm. Trk.
20%15%IMA
12.5%10%ISAD7.5%0%S/S
MPGTorque
35%15%Full Lg. Trk.
40%20%Full Car & Sm. Trk.
20%15%IMA
12.5%10%ISAD7.5%0%S/S
MPGTorque
33%25%2012
30%25%2008
35%25%2005
MPGTorque
33%25%2012
30%25%2008
35%25%2005
MPGTorque
Greene/ORNL/2005
Oak Ridge Analysts Predict A Mix of Hybrids Will Enter the Market; Expect a Maximum 40% MPG Gain
9
EPA Data Implies Higher HEV MPG Gains than ORNL and CAR
No1042VRWDISADGM 5.3 L Pickups
No942VRWDISADGM 5.3 L Pickups
No30-46
288 (V)45 kWFront:123kW/109k(Gen): Rear 50 kW
4WDParallel/SeriesToyota Highlander
No39
288 (V)45 kWFront:123kW/109k(Gen): Rear 50 kW
4WDParallel/SeriesLexus 400h
Yes57-62330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)4WDParallel/SeriesEscape
Yes46-56330 (V)70kw/28kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesEscape
Yes70 est.202 (V)21 kW49kw/10kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesPrius THS II (2004)
Yes?274 (V)20 kW33kw/10kw (Gen)FWDParallel/SeriesPrius THS I (2000)
Intermittent20-35 +144 (V)12 kW12kwFWDParallel (IMA)Accord
Yes23-47144 (V)10 kW10kwFWDParallel (IMA)Civic
Downsize?%(Volts)(GEN)
Engine~ mpggainBatteryBattery
Electric Motor/Generator
TypeModel
10
“Constant Glider” MPG Gain Approximation for the ’04 Prius Showed One Year Old Estimates Were Obsolete
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
HEV MPG GainEstimates
EEA150VEEA300VTMC/ANL500V
• EEA estimates from 2002 study for California, ANL for actual 2004 Prius
• Lower drag and rolling resistance (than ’04 Prius) in the EEA cases
• EEA estimates greater increase in mass of HEV
• All are “mid-size” cars
Multiple Argonne Analysts Have Estimated a 70% Gain in l/km (mpg) for the Prius Powertrain in a Prius Body, with
Prius-like Engine Power Levels, on Certification Tests
11
The Latest Toyota HEV Powertrain Allows V8 Performance in a Vehicle Body Designed for a Transverse Powertrain Configuration
> 40
% d
eclin
e vs
. gas
olin
eToyota Has Recently Claimed the Equivalent of > 67% l/km Gain (>40% km/l cut) with the New RX400 Hybrid, in the EU
36%
12
M. Duoba’s ANL Analysts Show a Sharp MPG Drop for the Prius When Driven “Hard”
Urban Drive Cycle
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6Scaling Factor
Fuel
Eco
nom
y [m
pg]
Insight
Prius
Echo
Focus
Escape
Jaguar!32% Drop1.0 to 1.4
Investigating Vehicle Fuel Economy Robustness of Conventional and Hybrid Electric Vehicles. M. Duoba et al, Argonne National Laboratory, USA Presented 4/5/05 EVS-21 Monaco
13
The HEV “On-Road” vs. Official Rated Fuel Economy is Being Debated
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
HondaInsight
HondaCivic
ToyotaPrius
HondaAccord
FordEscape
Lexus RX
Lite
rs p
er 1
00 K
ilom
eter
s (U
.S.) U.S. Owner Reports
EPA City Rating
EPA Highway Rating
Owner reports from http://www.greenhybrid.com/compare/mileage/Reported in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_car. 9/30/05
On-road reported fuel economy (5-47 responses) vs. “window sticker” ratings, in l/100 km
14
EPA Evidence to Date Implies a Larger On-Road Discount for FWD HEVs
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Honda
Civi
c 4 A
uto
Accord
4 cy
l Auto
Toyota
Cam
ry 4 A
uto
Accord
V6 A
uto
Scion X
A 4 Auto
Nissan
Altima 4
Auto
Toyota
Coro
lla 4
Auto
Scion X
B4 Auto
Toyota
Matr
ix 4 A
uto
Ford Foc
us 4
AutoCivi
c HEV1
Accord
HEV
Escap
e HEV
Prius
Civic H
EV2
Lite
rs/1
00 k
m
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
On-
road
per
cent
diff
eren
ce
Rated Reported% Difference
Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum)
15
For 4WD, the Scant EPA Evidence Says the HEV Penalty is the Same as Gasoline
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jeep Liberty4WD 4 SUV
Diesel
Honda Pilot4WD V6 SUV
Auto
Equinox 4WDV6 SUV Auto
Escape 4WD 4SUV HEV
Lite
rs/1
00 k
m
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
On-
road
per
cent
cha
nge
Rated Reported% Difference
Data collected from http://www.fueleconomy.gov/ on Sept. 30 by D. Santini (5 reports minimum)
16
Not all hybrids are full hybrids, which increases hybrids’market share but decreases their fuel economy impact.
Hybrid Vehicles by Degree of Hybridization:
2012 "Best Guess Scenario"(Total Hybrid Market Share = 14.9%)
Stop-Start, 4.2%
ISAD, 0.7%
IMA, 2.9%
Full Hybrid, 7.1%
Greene/ORNL/2005
Oak Ridge Analysts Predict the “Full Hybrid” Will Capture the Largest Share of a Growing U.S. Hybrid Market in 2012
Not a hybrid by SAE and EPACT definitions
17Center for Automotive Research Estimates, June 2005
Though Entering Different Market Segments, Both Diesel and HEV Shares of the <10K GVW New Vehicle Market
are Projected to Expand Significantly by 2009
18
Prius vs. Civic HEV Sales Imply the Complete Prius “Package” Attracts Buyers
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005Y E A R
Ann
ual S
ales
(100
0s)
Total
Prius
Civic
Escape
Accord
Insight
Note: 2005 sales = 2 x sales through June
19
9.1%15,0231,363Ford Escape5.1%46,1532,336Honda Accord
11.9%34,7624,146Honda Civic27.0%9,6442,607Toyota Rx400h
22.4%13,0422,925Toyota Highlander
% HybridsFull modelHybridsModel
Hybrids as Percentage of Model Sales August 2005
0.50%288,4291,363Ford4.20%156,1736,562Honda7.50%205,36215,382Toyota
% HybridsTotalHybridsHybrids as Percentage of Total LDV Sales August 2005
Toyota Hybrid Powertrains Are Selling in Higher Percentages of the Model and Brand than Honda or Ford
20
Sources: Fueleconomy.gov, J.D. Power-LMC; Energy & Environmental Analysis (EEA); manufacturer Web sites.
2008Mid-size CarMilan Hybrid Mercury
2008Full-size PickupSierra Hybrid (AHS II)GMC
2008Mid-size CarFusionFord
2008Full-size PickupSilverado Hybrid (AHS II)Chevrolet
2007SUVTribute HybridMazda
2007SUVYukon Hybrid (AHS II)GMC
2007SUVTahoe (AHS II)Chevrolet
2007Mid-size CarMalibuChevrolet
2007SUVEquinoxChevrolet
2006Mid-size CarAltima HybridNissan
2006SUVVUESaturn
June 2005Mid-size SUVHighlanderToyota
Later in 2005Mid-size SUVMariner HybridMercury
Just introducedMid-size SUVRX 400hLexus
Later in 2005Full-size PickupRam HybridDodge
ETATypeModelManufacturer
Several Hybrids Were “On the Horizon” Before June
21
GM May Introduce “Dual Mode” “Full”HEVs In Large Trucks First, Then DC
Manufacturer/Model (CARB Classification1) Type Date Available
Daimler Chrysler Dodge Ram ‘Contractor Special’ (LDT2) ISG 2005 Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles – Resulting From Partnership With GM (PC/LDT1, LDT2)
Parallel – Series2 2009-2010 est.
Ford Ford Escape Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2004 Mercury Mariner Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Mazda Tribute Hybrid (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2006 Ford Fusion Hybrid/Mercury Milan Hybrid (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2008
General Motors GMC Sierra/Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid (LDT2) ISG 2004 Chevrolet Malibu (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 Saturn Vue (PC/LDT1) BAS 2006 GMC Yukon/Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid (AHSII) (LDT2 / MDPV) Parallel – Series 2007
AHSII Hybrid Pickup (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2008 (est.) Dual Mode Hybrid Vehicles – Resulting from partnership with DCX (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2009 (est.) 1 PC/LDT1: Passenger cars and light trucks 0 – 3750 LVW. LDT2: 3751 LVW – 8500GVW. MDPV: Passenger vehicles > 8500GVW. The pickup trucks may qualify as MDV’s (and thus avoid regulation) if used for commercial purposes; however CARB documents state that differentiating those pickups used for commercial and non-commercial purposes is impossible and believes that using 8500 as the cutoff will produce minimal error. Since the ISG pickups and future AHS II pickups have GVWs < 8500 they will be classified as LDT2s.
Center for Automotive Research, June 2005
22
As of June, Asian Companies Had Not Announced HEVs in Their Big Trucks
Honda Insight (PC/LDT1) IMA 1999 Civic (PC/LDT1) IMA 2002 Accord (PC/LDT1) IMA 2004 Nissan Altima (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 Toyota Prius (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2000 Highlander (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Camry(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006(est.) Corolla(expected) (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006 (est.) Sienna (expected) (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2007 (est.) Lexus 400h (LDT2) Parallel – Series 2005 Lexus GS 450 (PC/LDT1) Parallel – Series 2006
Center for Automotive Research, June 2005
23
New Variable Incentives Have Been Incorporated in 2005 EPACT
Fuel cellsLean burn (diesel)HybridsAlternative fuels (Implies flat $4000 for EVs)
24
In EPACT 2005, New Fuel Cell and Lean Burn (Diesel) Incentives Have Been Created Requiring a Percent Increase vs. the City Mpg Baselines Shown Below
Incentive baselines for FCVs and Diesels (lean burn) as defined in EPACT 2005
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1500
-1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
-8500
Inerita Weight Class
2002
Lite
rs/1
00 k
m
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2002
refe
renc
e m
pg
Car l/100 kmTruck l/100 kmCar mpgTruck mpg
25
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
25-50 50-75 75-100 100-125 125-150 150 &above
Lean Burn (Diesel) Percent City MPG Increase over Reference Vehicle
Inco
me
Tax
Cre
dit
The Diesel Has Difficult Hurdles to Obtain Significant Credits
< 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 56000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8
26
The IMA and Full HEVs Can Easily Increase City MPG by > 30% and Exceed Emissions
Requirements to Obtain Credit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
30-40% 40-50% >50%Gain in City MPG over Comparable Vehicle
Cre
dit a
s Pe
rcen
t of I
ncre
men
tal C
ost
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Max
imum
Cre
dit (
$)
% of Incremental CostMaximum $ Amount
< 6000 lb, must meet Tier II, bin 56000-8500, must meet Tier II, bin 8
27
1500-1750
2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000-8500
25%50%
75%100%
125%150%
175%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
Tota
l Cre
dit
Inertia Weight Class
City MPG % Gain
Light Truck “Credit Surface”
Total Credits Are A Complex Combination of % Gains and Lifetime Fuel Savings