Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel
-
Upload
arktisk-forening -
Category
Environment
-
view
100 -
download
6
description
Transcript of Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel
![Page 1: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ole Humlum, University of Oslo and UNIS
February 2014 vs average 1998-2006
![Page 2: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
June 2012
![Page 6: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
September 2013
![Page 7: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
TWO IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
FOR CLIMATE RESEARCH IN 2014:
Are we under communicating
1. Uncertainties associated with climate models 2. Natural explanations for modern climate change
?
![Page 8: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The psychological aspect: Our reaction when presented to new
and perhaps controversial information ?
![Page 9: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Essence of science: The art of thinking with an open mind, without being biased by what you believe
![Page 11: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Is modern climate change unusual ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes Focus on CO2 reduction
![Page 13: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
![Page 14: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
![Page 19: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
IPC
C 1
98
8
66% 90% 95%
![Page 20: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Is modern climate change unusual ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Is CO2 responsible for climate change ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes
Are humans responsible for CO2 increase ?
No Focus on a real problem Yes Focus on CO2 reduction
CO2 increases because of humans
Climate is controlled by CO2
Modern climate change is unusual:
DANGER
![Page 30: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
![Page 31: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
about 1500 MIA NOK
![Page 32: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Assumed natural climate development according to models
Conclusion: More than 100% of the temperature increase since 1965 is caused by man’s activity
![Page 34: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
![Page 35: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
![Page 36: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
![Page 37: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
The spectral signature of measured and modeled data
Do climate models at all reproduce natural climate variations ?
![Page 38: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
![Page 39: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
![Page 41: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Assumed natural climate development according to models
![Page 42: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Storglaciären, northern Sweden
![Page 45: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
![Page 46: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
![Page 49: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
![Page 50: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
![Page 51: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
![Page 52: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
![Page 53: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
![Page 54: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
The "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" (PDO) is a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability. The climatic fingerprints of the PDO are most visible in the North Pacific/North American sector.
![Page 55: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
The thin line indicate annual PDO values, and the thick line is the simple running 7 year average
![Page 56: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
![Page 57: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
![Page 58: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
![Page 59: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
The thin line indicates the annual value, and the thick line is the simple running 11 year average.
The AMO is basically an index of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). The AMO index appears to be correlated to air temperatures and rainfall over much of the Northern Hemisphere. The AMO index also appears to be associated with changes in the frequency of North American droughts and is reflected in the frequency of severe Atlantic hurricanes.
![Page 60: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
![Page 61: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
![Page 62: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
![Page 63: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
![Page 64: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
![Page 65: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
![Page 66: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
![Page 68: Status for klimaet på jorden og i Arktis 2014 etter siste rapport fra FNs klimapanel](https://reader034.fdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022052601/5597c9461a28ab95468b46c8/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
1: Natural variations
2: Sensitivity of CO2
3: Temperature-CO2 dynamics
Thank you for your attention !
CLIMATE ISSUES TO BE RECONSIDERED
4: Modeling based on natural variations