Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose...

17
Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose Populations Glenn D. DelGiudice, Ph.D Forest Wildlife Populations & Research Group, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, and Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, & Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota-St. Paul St. Lo ui s Itas ca Lak e Polk Beltrami Pine Aitkin Coo k Kooc hic hin g Ros eau Otter Tail Becker Marsh al l Ste arn s To dd Kittson Pope Swift Lyon Morrison Ren vil le Car lton Hub ba rd Ric e Wilkin Nor man Martin Nob le s Wright Gra nt Fi llm ore Mowe r Crow Wing Sibl ey Murray Red wo od Cle arw ater Lak e of th e Wo od s Brow n Roc k Jacks on Dou gl as Go od hue Meek er Kand iyo hi Win ona Isa nti Dak ota Fa rib au lt Fre eb orn Olmsted Ste ven s Scott Ste el e Lin col n Blue Earth Hou ston Wad ena Dod ge Tra vers e Mill e La cs Kana be c Wabasha McLe od Benton Chi pp ew a Nic oll et Waseca Lac Qui Parle Penn in gton Chi sag o Car ver Big Stone Cotton wo od Mahn om en Le Su eu r Pipe ston e Red Lak e Sher bur ne Yell ow Me di cin e Wash in gton Watonwan Hen ne pi n Ram sey Cla y Cas s Anok a St. Lo ui s Itas ca Lak e Polk Beltrami Pine Aitkin Coo k Kooc hic hin g Ros eau Otter Tail Becke r Marsh al l Ste arn s To dd Kittson Pope Swift Lyon Morrison Ren vil le Car lton Hub ba rd Ric e Wilkin Nor man Martin Nob le s Wrig ht Gra nt Fi llm ore Mowe r Crow Wing Sibl ey Murray Red wo od Cle arw ater Lak e of th e Wo od s Brow n Roc k Jacks on Dou gl as Go od hue Meek er Kand iyo hi Win ona Isa nti Dak ota Fa rib au lt Fre eb orn Olmsted Ste ven s Scott Ste el e Lin col n Blue Earth Hou ston Wad ena Dod ge Tra vers e Mill e La cs Kana be c Wabasha McLe od Benton Chi pp ew a Nic oll et Waseca Lac Qui Parle Penn in gton Chi sag o Car ver Big Stone Cotton wo od Mahn om en Le Su eu r Pipestone Red Lak e Sher bur ne Yell ow Me di cin e Washington Watonwan Hen ne pi n Ram sey Cla y Cas s Anok a St. Lo ui s Itas ca Lak e Polk Beltrami Pine Aitkin Coo k Kooc hic hin g Ros eau Otter Tail Becke r Marsh al l Ste arn s To dd Kittson Pope Swift Lyon Morrison Ren vil le Car lton Hub ba rd Ric e Wilkin Nor man Martin Nob le s Wrig ht Gra nt Fi llm ore Mowe r Crow Wing Sibl ey Murray Red wo od Cle arw ater Lak e of th e Wo od s Brow n Roc k Jacks on Dou gl as Go od hue Meek er Kand iyo hi Win ona Isa nti Dak ota Fa rib au lt Fre eb orn Olmsted Ste ven s Scott Ste el e Lin col n Blue Earth Hou ston Wad ena Dod ge Tra vers e Mill e La cs Kana be c Wabasha McLe od Bento n Chi pp ew a Nic oll et Waseca Lac Qui Parle Penn in gton Chi sag o Car ver Big Stone Cotton wo od Mahn om en Le Su eu r Pipe ston e Red Lak e Sher bur ne Yell ow Me di cin e Wash in gton Watonwan Hen ne pi n Ram sey Cla y Cas s Anok a 7 _ _ _ l/ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ‘I _LJ_L||U L:__‘N+ ‘F W l_|T_ >Jll _J Vl ‘I 7'7 F l_||__‘_l|l _ _ _ ‘IIIr _V|:L ___ L fi__ :_]‘__ _J__ _ _ __ 1 (I _ lT}y|";‘_\||:_“ _|_i|4_ (4. _ _ _ In _ l1 1| I“ _ _ r)“ l'L4|| (J: ||"_ _Ll|_ I1 r“l|‘ ’||‘_ w _ __ _ ‘VI’! _ _ _ H: \ll_ u i[ ‘J WV ll __ __ _[|\|‘_"|_[|__| Ii _ __ __ 1 I _k_ 1" I‘ r‘_T“_ l 7_ / l_:_|_|+jL|H L1 Q2 qI % i ii? ______|_Ui “L\|_"L|)fl|‘|_ JFTHTIH _ j _ _ _ _ _ _|‘ _|,,'|_ _ _‘ I L 4}" ‘_||L _ J] I V‘ IIWIIIN _ N|__:J_ _ ‘_‘_F“ ‘L _|L_ __ _ __ :+‘ _‘ _ I: _L ‘:__ I] __4:_1[; V H,||' _I\i[ U "El. ( A_F J__‘|{_::1 _ V “I __ _ _ % "EM

Transcript of Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose...

Page 1: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose

Populations

Glenn D. DelGiudice, Ph.D

Forest Wildlife Populations & Research Group, Minnesota Department of Natural

Resources, and Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, & Conservation Biology, University

of Minnesota-St. Paul

St. Louis

Itas caLak e

Polk

Beltrami

Pine

Aitkin

Cook

Kooc hic hing

Ros eau

Otter Tai l

Becker

Marshal l

Stearns

Todd

Kittson

Pope

Swift

Lyon

Morrison

Renvil le

Car lton

Hubbard

Ric e

Wilkin

Nor man

MartinNobles

Wright

Grant

Fi llm oreMower

Crow Wing

Sibley

Murray

Redwood

Clearwater

Lak e of the Woods

Brown

Roc kJacks on

Douglas

Goodhue

Meek erKandiyohi

Winona

Isanti

Dak ota

Faribau lt Freeborn

Olmsted

Stevens

Scott

Steele

Lincoln

Blue Earth

Houston

Wadena

Dodge

Travers e

Mille Lacs

Kanabec

Wabasha

McLeod

Benton

Chippewa

Nic ollet

Waseca

Lac Qui Parle

Pennington

Chisago

Car ver

Big Stone

Cottonwood

Mahnom en

Le Sueur

Pipestone

Red Lak e

Sher bur ne

Yellow Medicine

Washington

Watonwan

Hennepin

Ram sey

Clay

Cas s

Anok a

St. Louis

Itas caLak e

Polk

Beltrami

Pine

Aitkin

Cook

Kooc hic hing

Ros eau

Otter Tai l

Becker

Marshal l

Stearns

Todd

Kittson

Pope

Swift

Lyon

Morrison

Renvil le

Car lton

Hubbard

Ric e

Wilkin

Nor man

MartinNobles

Wright

Grant

Fi llm oreMower

Crow Wing

Sibley

Murray

Redwood

Clearwater

Lak e of the Woods

Brown

Roc kJacks on

Douglas

Goodhue

Meek erKandiyohi

Winona

Isanti

Dak ota

Faribault Freeborn

Olmsted

Stevens

Scott

Steele

Lincoln

Blue Earth

Houston

Wadena

Dodge

Travers e

Mille Lacs

Kanabec

Wabasha

McLeod

Benton

Chippewa

Nic ollet

Waseca

Lac Qui Parle

Pennington

Chisago

Car ver

Big Stone

Cottonwood

Mahnom en

Le Sueur

Pipestone

Red Lak e

Sher bur ne

Yellow Medicine

Washington

Watonwan

Hennepin

Ram sey

Clay

Cas s

Anok a

St. Louis

Itas caLak e

Polk

Beltrami

Pine

Aitkin

Cook

Kooc hic hing

Ros eau

Otter Tai l

Becker

Marshal l

Stearns

Todd

Kittson

Pope

Swift

Lyon

Morrison

Renvil le

Car lton

Hubbard

Ric e

Wilkin

Nor man

MartinNobles

Wright

Grant

Fi llm oreMower

Crow Wing

Sibley

Murray

Redwood

Clearwater

Lak e of the Woods

Brown

Roc kJacks on

Douglas

Goodhue

Meek erKandiyohi

Winona

Isanti

Dak ota

Faribault Freeborn

Olmsted

Stevens

Scott

Steele

Lincoln

Blue Earth

Houston

Wadena

Dodge

Travers e

Mille Lacs

Kanabec

Wabasha

McLeod

Benton

Chippewa

Nic ollet

Waseca

Lac Qui Parle

Pennington

Chisago

Car ver

Big Stone

Cottonwood

Mahnom en

Le Sueur

Pipestone

Red Lak e

Sher bur ne

Yellow Medicine

Washington

Watonwan

Hennepin

Ram sey

Clay

Cas s

Anok a

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Page 2: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northwestern Minnesota

Moose population estimate

Mid-1980s: 4,000+

2007 : < 100 (last State survey in the NW)

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Page 3: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northwestern MN Moose Population Population crash – >4,000 moose in the 1980’s, by the 1990’s, things started to change……. • Stopped hunting in 1997 • Habitat management efforts • Radiocollared (VHF) adult mortality study

• Climate change correlation • Health related (liver flukes and

brainworm)

Liver Flukes

likely

31%

Brainworm likely

5%Accidents

4%

Poaching

3%

Unknown

25%

Predation

7%

Disease/Starved

likely

25%

EstmatedMoosePopulaton

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Page 4: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Additional research findings:

1. Low mean annual survival of

ad (0.79) and yrl (0.64), but

high calf survival (0.66)

2. Low pregnancy rates (48%)

3. Annual pop. growth rate

related negatively to mean

summer temperature

Murray et al. (2006): study period 1995-2000

Page 5: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northeastern Minnesota January 2014

Pop. estimate: 4,350 Calves:cow: 0.44

Bulls:cow: 1.24

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Page 6: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Minnesota’s annual aerial moose survey method Consistency and standardization

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Page 7: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Minnesota’s annual aerial moose survey method

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Page 8: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Minnesota’s annual aerial moose survey method

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Page 9: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Minnesota’s annual aerial moose

survey method

2004 – detection probabilities are estimated using a Sightability Model (Giudice et al. 2012)

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Page 10: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014

Survey Estimate

90% Confidence

Interval

2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

2006 8,840 6,670 – 11,710

2007 6,860 5,230 – 9,000

2008 7,890 5,970 – 10,420

2009 7,840 6,190 – 9,910

2010 5,700 4,480 – 7,250

2011 4,900 3,810 – 6,290

2012 4,230 3,190 – 5,600

2013 2,760 2,120 – 3,580

2014 4,350 3,220 – 6,210

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Page 11: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Estimated calf:cow ratios (solid diamonds)

Percent calves (solid squares)

Estimated bull:cow ratios

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Page 12: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northeastern Radiocollared (VHF) Moose Study

Results, 2002-2008 (Lenarz et al. 2009)

Vehicle 8% Train

2%

Hunters 14%

Poached 2%

Wolves 9%

Bacterial Meningitis

1%

Unknown Health Related

31%

Unknown 33%

Page 13: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population

Additional research findings: Lenarz et al. (2009, 2010): Study period 2002-2008

1. Models based on Jan temperatures above a critical physiological

threshold were inversely correlated with subsequent adult survival

2. Explained >78% variability in spring, fall, and annual survival, and 55%

for the next winter’s survival

4. Mean annual adult survival rates were 0.81 (0.68-0.96)

5. No difference in male and female survival

Page 14: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Research, Management, and Future of Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population

Aggressive research efforts studying:

1. Specific causes of adult and calf mortality relative to intrinsic and

extrinsic factors, seasonal and annual survival rates relative to

environmental variables, and reproductive performance

2. Nutrition and use of habitat before and after forest manipulations

3. White-tailed deer-moose interactions and potential of disease

transmission

4. Thermoregulation by moose relative to behavior, habitat type, and

ambient temperature

5. Wolf-moose interactions, seasonal wolf diet composition and impacts on

the moose population

6. And more….

Page 15: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Research, Management, and Future of Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population

Management efforts:

1. Ongoing annual aerial moose survey, with recent inclusion of

assessments of moose use of disturbed areas in northeastern Minnesota

2. Development of Minnesota Moose Research & Management Plan

3. Cancelled the State’s annual moose harvest (2013) until further notice

4. Moose listed by the State as a Species of Concern

5. Fond du Lac Indian Band, 1854 Treaty Authority, and Grand Portage

Band of Chippewa cancelled moose harvests until further notice

6. Annual research/management moose meeting

7. Moose habitat inventory and development of Habitat Suitability Index

(HSI)

Page 16: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Research, Management, and Future of the Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population

7. Ongoing habitat manipulation projects by the many landownerships for

moose habitat improvement (including Habitat Collaborative projects)

8. Development of moose management and research websites, frequent

presentations to the public and special interest groups

9. Development of a moose biennial work plan and a climate change

biennial work plan (including a focus on moose)

Page 17: Status and Trends of Minnesota’s Moose PopulationsB · Northeastern Minnesota’s Moose Population, 2005-2014 Survey Estimate 90% Confidence Interval 2005 8,160 5,960 – 11,170

Acknowledgements

Cooperating parties:

Fond du Lac Resource Management

Division

1854 Treaty Authority

Natural Resources Research Institute, University of Minnesota-Duluth

Voyageurs National Park, U. S. National Park Service

Minnesota Deer Hunters Association, The Nature Conservancy

Grand Portage Band of Chippewa

Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, & Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota-St.

Paul

U. S. Forest Service

U. S. Geological Survey

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