statistika ekonomikisa da biznesisaTvis-2 - tsu.ge · 1 ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis...

1

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universiteti

ekonomikuri da socialuri statistikis kaTedra

statistika ekonomikisa

da biznesisaTvis-2

leqciebis mokle kursi

Tbilisi 2017

2

Sinaarsi

winasityvaoba - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 3

Tema 1. Sromis bazris statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 4

Tema 2. ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - 23

Tema 3. makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema - - - - - - - - 36

Tema 4. sabazro koniunqturis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 52

Tema 5. safinanso-sabanko statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 105

Tema 6. cxovrebis donis statistika - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 122

Tema 7. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika - - - - - - - - - - 141

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w i n a s i t y v a o b a

Tanamedrove msoflioSi statistikuri mecnierebis meTodebi farTod

gamoiyeneba sazogadoebrivi cxovrebis yvela sferoSi da gansakuTrebiT ki

ekonomikasa da biznesSi. amitom aucilebelia, rom studentebma

safuZvlianad Seiswavlon konkretuli statistikuri meTodebis gamoyenebis

Taviseburebebi sxvadasxva sferoSi, rac gaafarToebs SemdgomSi maTi

dasaqmebis SesaZleblobas. swored am miznis miRwevas emsaxureba

winamdebare leqciebis kursi, romelic did daxmarebas gauwevs rogorc

studentebs, aseve praqtikos specialistebs. misi struqtura srulad

Seesabameba Sesabamisi saswavlo disciplinis - ,,statistika ekonomikisa da

biznesisaTvis-2” – damtkicebul silabuss.

leqciebis kursis momzadebis procesSi gamoyenebuli iqna rogorc

qarTul, ise inglisur, germanul da rusul enebze gamocemuli

Tanamedrove specialuri literatura. winamdebare leqciebis kursi

moamzada ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo

universitetis ekonomikuri da socialuri statistikis kaTedram (saerTo

redaqcia, winasityvaoba da Tema 7 - ,,sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis

statistika” - simon gelaSvili; Tema 1 - ,,Sromis bazris statistika” –

merab xmalaZe da qeTevan CitalaZe; Tema 2 - ,,ZiriTadi da sabrunavi

kapitalis statistika” da Tema 3 - ,,makroekonomikuri statistikis

maCvenebelTa sistema” – marine mindoraSvili; Tema 4 - ,,sabazro

koniunqturis statistika” – qeTevan marSava; Tema 5 - ,,safinanso-sabanko

statistika” – nino abesaZe da zamira Sonia; Tema 6 - ,,cxovrebis donis

statistika’’ – merab xmalaZe da irine maisuraZe.

igi gankuTvnilia umaRlesi saswavleblebis nebismieri ekonomikuri,

biznesis, socialuri da sxva specialobebisa da fakultetebis

studentebisaTvis. igi did daxmarebas gauwevs aseve praqtikos

specialistebs da am sakiTxebiT dainteresebul mkiTxvelTa farTo wres.

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Tema 1

Sromis bazris statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi amocanebi;

2. statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb;

3. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

4. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika;

5. umuSevrobis statistika;

6. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika;

7. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika;

8. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi;

9. Sromis nayofierebis statistika.

1. Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqti da ZiriTadi

amocanebi

Sromis bazris statistikis Seswavlis obieqtia Sromis bazarze

mimdinare movlenebi da procesebi, xolo Seswavlis sagania am

movlenebisa da procesebis raodenobrivi mxare. statistika adgens

Sromis bazris raodenobriv kanonzomierebebs. aRniSnuli

kanonzomierebebis Sesaswavlad gamoiyeneba statistikur maCvenebelTa

sistema, romlis saSualebiTac dgindeba Sromis bazarze mimdinare

procesebis moculoba, struqtura, done, dinamika da sxv. sakiTxebis

Seswavla-analizisaTvis gamoiyeneba statistikuri meTodebis mTeli

arsenali, rogoricaa: Sromis bazris Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis

mopovebis da pirveladi damuSavebis meTodebi, absoluturi, SefardebiTi

da saSualo sidideebi, variaciis maCveneblebi, dinamikuri mwkrivis

saanalizo maCveneblebi, korelaciur-regresiuli analizi.

Sromis bazris statistika konkretulad Seiswavlis Sromis

statistikis iseT mniSvnelovan sakiTxebs, rogoricaa: ekonomikurad

aqtiuri da araaqtiuri mosaxleoba, maTi ricxovnoba da Semadgenloba,

dasaqmeba, dasaqmebis done da struqtura profesiebis, ekonomikis

seqtorebis, dargebis, genderul, qalaq–soflis da regionebis mixedviT

da a.S.

Sesabamisad, Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgens

umniSvnelovanes makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia

saxelmwifos socialuri da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.

dakisrebuli funqciebis Sesasruleblad Sromis bazris statistikam

unda gadawyvitos Semdegi amocanebi:

_ Sromis bazris Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis Segroveba da

analizi;

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_ mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

– dasaqmebis da umuSevrobis Seswavla;

– samuSao Zalis moZraobis analizi;

_ Sromis anazRaurebis Seswavla;

– samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis moculobis struqturis da dinamikis

dadgena;

– Sromis nayofierebis donis da dinamikis analizi.

2. statistikuri informaciis wyaroebi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb

Sromis bazris statistika, rogorc ekonomikuri statistikis

Semadgeneli nawili, Seiswavlis Sromis statistikasTan dakavSirebul

iseT mniSvnelovan sakiTxebs, rogoricaa ekonomikurad aqtiuri da

araaqtiuri mosaxleoba, maTi ricxovnoba da Semadgenloba, dasaqmeba,

dasaqmebis done da struqtura profesiebis, ekonomikis seqtorebis,

dargebis, genderul da qalaq-soflis WrilSi da a.S. Sromis bazris

zemoTaRniSnuli da maTTan dakavSirebuli sakiTxebi warmoadgens Sromis

bazris Seswavlis obieqts, xolo maTi raodenobrivi daxasiaTeba Sromis

bazris statistikis Seswavlis sagans.

gegmuri meurneobisgan gansxvavebiT sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi

umuSevrobis Seswavlam didi socialuri da ekonomikuri mniSvneloba

SeiZina. Tu socializmis pirobebSi formalurad umuSevroba ar arsebobda,

sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi is realobad iqca da Sesabamisad

dasaqmebasTan erTad did gavlenas axdens qveynis socialur-ekonomikur

ganviTarebaze, cxovrebis doneze.

Sromis bazris statistikis maCveneblebi warmoadgenen umniSvnelovanes

makroekonomikur indikatorebs, romlebic aucilebelia saxelmwifos

socialuri da ekonomikuri politikis SemuSavebisaTvis.

saqarTvelos sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis pirobebSi Seicvala

Sromis statistikis informaciis mopovebis xerxebi. socializmis

pirobebSi Sromis bazris Sesaxeb informacia moipoveboda saxelmwifo

sawarmoebze sruli dakvirvebiT yovelwliurad, xolo 3-5 weliwadSi

erTxel tardeboda sawarmoebis sruli gamokvleva dasaqmebulTa

Sesaswavlad sqesis, asakis, profesiebis, Tanamdebobebis da sxva niSnebis

mixedviT.

amasTan erTad, informacias samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da sqesobriv-

asakobrivi Semadgeblobis, misi dargobriv_teritoriuli ganawilebis,

dasaqmebis donis da sxvaTa Sesaxeb iZleva mosaxleobis aRwerebi.

saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2014 wlis sayovelTao aRweriT aseve

mopovebuli iqna monacemebi samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis,

arsebobis saSualebaTa wyaroebis, dasaqmebis, ZiriTadi saqmianobis an

Sesrulebuli samuSaos sruli dasaxelebis Sesaxeb, monacemebi 15 wlis da

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ufrosi asakis dausaqmebel mosaxleobaze. magram mosaxleobis aRwerebi,

rogorc viciT, tardeba 10 weliwadSi erTxel, maSin, rodesac monacemebi

Sromis bazris Sesaxeb saWiroa ara Tu 10 weliwadSi erTxel an

yovelwliurad, aramed sistematiurad, yovelTviurad, yovelkvartalurad.

amitom Sromis bazris statistikis mniSvnelovan wyaros warmoadgens

SinameurneobaTa gamokvlevebi, romelic iZleva sistematiur informacias

samuSao Zalis ricxovnobis da Semadgenlobis, ekonomikuri statusis,

dasaqmebis da umuSevrobis Sesaxeb.

garkveuli informacia miiReba sawarmoebidan. amasTan msxvili

sawarmoebi Seiswavleba sruli dakvirvebiT, xolo saSualo da mcire

sawarmoebi - SerCeviTi dakvirvebiT.

saqarTveloSi Sromis bazris statistikis Sesaxeb informaciis

mopovebis, damuSavebisa da maCveneblebis gamoTvlis meTodologia

eyrdnoba Sromis saerTaSoriso biuros, Sromis saerTaSoriso

organizaciis (Sso) da sxva saerTaSoriso organizaciebis rekomendaciebs.

Sromis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad saWiroa

Seswavlili iqnas Semdegi sakiTxebi:

1. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT;

2. dasaqmeba da umuSevroba; SromiTi resursebis balansi;

3. samuSao Zalis moZraoba;

4. Sromis anazRaureba;

5. Sromis nayofiereba;

6. danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze.

3. mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT

mosaxleobis ganawileba ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT warmoadgens

klasifikacias statusis mixedviT gaweul saqmianobaSi. am SemTxvevaSi

statusi aRniSnavs adamianis mdgomareobas, rols, funqcias Sesrulebuli

saqmianobis procesSi.

saqarTvelos statistikaSi ekonomikuri statusis gansazRvra xdeba

saerTaSoriso standartebTan misadagebiT, kerZod Sromis saerTaSoriso

organizaciis (Sso) kriteriumebis gaTvaliswinebiT.

saqarTvelos statistikaSi aRiricxeba ekonomikuri statusis Semdegi

saxeebi:

ekonomikurad aqtiuri – piri, romelic muSaobs an sTavazobs Tavis

Sromas saqonlis an momsaxurebis sawarmoeblad. ekonomikurad aqtiur

mosaxleobas miekuTvneba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis

zemoTaRniSnuli nawili. saerTaSoriso statistikuri standartebis

mixedviT ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis yvelaze xSirad gamoyenebuli

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saxelwodebaa samuSao Zala. ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba moicavs or

kategorias: dasaqmebulebs da umuSevrebs.

dasaqmebuli (momuSave) – piri, romelic gamokiTxvis momentis wina 7

dRis ganmavlobaSi muSaobda (sul mcire, erTi saaTi mainc) Semosavlis

(xelfasis, naturaluri Semosavlis, mogebis da a.S.) miRebis mizniT,

exmareboda usasyidlod sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebs, an raime mizeziT ar

imyofeboda samuSaoze, Tumca formalurad iricxeboda momuSaved.

dasaqmebis cneba uSualodaa dakavSirebuli warmoebis sazRvrebTan,

romelic ganmartebulia erovnul angariSTa sistemiT (eas). aRniSnuli

midgomis Tanaxmad dasaqmebulebs miekuTvnebian pirebi, romlebic qmnian

produqcias (saqonels, momsaxurebas) warmoebis sazRvrebSi. aqedan

gamomdinare, dasaqmebis da warmoebis maCveneblebi (kategoriebi)

urTierTSesadari sidideebia, rac maTi erToblivi analizis saSualebas

iZleva.

rac Seexeba dasaqmebis kriteriumad kviraSi sul cota erTi saaTis

muSaobas, gamowveulia imiT, rom qveyanaSi arsebobs dasaqmebis mravali

moklevadiani, SemTxveviTi da sxva araregularuli saxeobebi, romelTa

aRricxva aucilebelia ekonomikaSi maTi wvlilis dasadgenad, rac

obieqturad Txoulobs aRniSnuli kriteriumis gamoyenebas.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba Tavis mxriv iyofa daqiravebul,

TviTdasaqmebul, damxmare da gaurkveveli saqmianobis mosaxleobad.

daqiravebuli – piri, romelic saangariSo periodis ganmavlobaSi

asrulebda gansazRvrul samuSaos xelfasis an sxva saxis anazRaurebis

miRebis (fuliT an naturiT) mizniT. mas aseve miekuTvneba samuSao adgilis

mqone magram ar momuSave piri Svebulebis, avadmyofobis, samuSaodan

droebiT daTxovnis an sxva msgavsi mizezebis gamo.

TviTdasaqmebuli – mesakuTris saqmianoba saangariSo periodSi

mogebis an ojaxuri Semosavlis (fuliT an naturiT) miRebis mizniT.

damxmare – sxva Sinameurneobis wevrebisTvis usasyidlod momuSave

piri.

gaurkveveli – Sromis bazris statistikaSi statusiT gaurkveveli _

aRiricxebian pirebi, romelTa samuSaos saxe dauzustebelia, maT Sesaxeb

arsebuli informacia ar aris sakmarisi imisaTvis, rom isini mivakuTvnoT

CamoTvlili statusis romelime kategorias.

statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis struqtura da garkveuli periodis

ganmavlobaSi am struqturaSi momxdari Zvrebi mosaxleobis

socialur_ekonomikuri struqturaSi momxdari cvlilebebis analizis

mniSvnelovan saSualebas warmoadgens.

statusis mixedviT mosaxleobis klasifikacia warmoebs maTi statusis

mixedviT ZiriTad samuSaoze. Tu gamokvlevis momentSi adamiani muSaobs

kidev sxva samuSaoze, maSin ganisazRvreba ZiriTadi da meoradi saqmianoba.

ZiriTadad iTvleba is samuSao, romelsac gamosakiTxi piri TviTon Tvlis

ZiriTadad (Semosavlis ZiriTad wyarod). sxva samuSao iTvleba meoradad.

8

umuSevari – 15 da meti wlis piri, romelsac gamokiTxvis momentis

wina 7 dRis ganmavlobaSi ar umuSavia erTi saaTic ki, mzad iyo

muSaobisaTvis da eZebda samuSaos gamokiTxvamde 4 kviris ganmavlobaSi.

umuSevrebis da momuSaveebis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi dadgenilia

e.w. `mkacri kriteriumiT~. Sso-s standartebiT Sromis bazris

Camoyalibebis procesSi myofi qveynebisaTvis rekomendirebulia

umuSevrobis monacemebi gamoqveyndes `Serbilebuli kriteriumiT~-ac. am

kriteriumiT umuSevrad iTvlebian is pirebic, romlebmac xeli Caiqnies

samuSaos povnaze. eseni arian adamianebi, romlebic ar muSaoben, mzad

arian muSaobisTvis da surT muSaoba, magram ukve aRar eZeben mas. cxadia,

umuSevarTa raodenobac da donec Serbilebuli kriteriumiT maRali

iqneba mkacri kriteriumiT Sefasebul umuSevrobaze.

umuSevrobis zemoTmotanili ganmartebebi eyrdnoba Sso-is

rekomendaciebs xolo monacemebi mis Sesaxeb miiReba specialurad

organizebuli statistikuri dakvirvebis (Sinameurneobebze dakvirvebis)

masalebiT. amas garda umuSevrobis registracia mimdinareobs dasaqmebis

saxelmwifo samsaxurebis mier moqalaqeTa sacxovrebeli adgilis

mixedviT.

sxvaoba 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobas da ekonomikurad

aqtiur mosaxleobas Soris warmoadgens ekonomikurad araaqtiur, anu

samuSao Zalis gareT myof mosaxleobas (ixileT Semdegi cxrili.

cxrili 1.1.

saqarTvelos 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis ganawileba

ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT 1998-2015 wlebSi (aTasi kaci)*

1998 1999 2002 2004 2008 2013 2015

sul 15 wlis da

ufrosi asakis

mosaxleoba

3016,8

3026,2

3239,5

3146,9

3627,1

3026,2

2979.8

aqedan:

ekonomikurad aqtiuri 1972,8 1939,3 2104,2 2041,0 1917,8 2003,9 2021,5

dasaqmebuli, m.S. 1728,5 1694,4 1839,2 1783,3 1601,9 1712,1 1779.9

daqiravebuli 724,4 697,6 650,9 600,9 572,4 658,2 753,4

TviTdasaqmebuli 987,1 918,6 1184,9 1180,8 1028,5 1043,8 1018,1

gaurkveveli 17,0 78,4 3,4 1,6 1,1 10,0 8,4

umuSevari 244,2 244,9 265,0 257,6 315,8 291,8 241,6

mosaxleoba samuSao

Zalis gareT 1044,0 1086,9 1135,3 1105,9 1145,2 1022,3 958,3

*saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi. 2004-2005. Tb., 2006, gv. 28. saqarTvelos Sinameurneobebi 2008. Tb., 2009, gv. 15. Sso-is mkacri kriteriumebiT. SemdgomSi, Tu miTiTebuli ar aris, monacemebi motanili iqneba mkacri kriteriumebis mixedviT.

4. mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis da dasaqmebis statistika

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dasaqmebisa da umuSevrobis statistikaSi erT-erT mniSvnelovan

adgils ikavebs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis daxasiaTeba. aRniSnuli

daxasiaTeba moicavs ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis saerTo

raodenobis gansazRvras, mis Semadgenlobas statusis mixedviT rogorc

absolutur, ise SefardebiT (struqturis SefardebiTi sidideebi)

sidideebSi, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba Seiswavleba aseve

sqesobriv-asakobriv da regionul WrilSi, dinamikaSi.

rogorc cxrili 1.1-dan Cans, ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleoba

saqarTveloSi 1998-2015 wlebSi 1972,8 aTasidan gaizarda 2021.5 aTasamde, e.i.

2,4 %-iT. zrda mniSvnelovania, miT umetes, rom am periodSi ekonomikurad

aqtiuri mosaxleobis mniSvnelovani nawili sazRvargareT wavida samuSaos

saZebnelad.

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis dasaxasiaTeblad

statistikaSi gamoiyeneba iseTi makroekonomikuri maCvenebeli, rogoricaa:

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti. is gviCvenebs

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis xvedriT wils (procentebSi) 15 wlis

da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobaSi da gamoiTvleba

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da

ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnobasTan. koeficienti

gamoiTvleba formuliT:

100.T15

ek.aqt.

aqt.

TK , sadac (1.1)

aqt.K - aris mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis koeficienti;

ek.aqt.T _ ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

15T _ 15 wlis da masze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnoba.

saqarTvelos statistika ekonomikuri statusis mixedviT ganixilavs ara

marto 15 wlis da ufrosi, aramed 25 welze ufrosi asakis mosaxleobasac.

ekonomikurad araaqtiuri, anu mosaxleoba samuSao Zalis gareT

moicavs 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleobidan invalidebs,

pensionerebs, moswavleebs da sxv. aRniSnuli kategoria SeiZleba

davaxasiaToT iseTi statistikuri maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: ekonomikurad

araaqtiuri mosaxleobis ricxovnoba, misi xvedri wili 15 wlis da

ufrosi asakis mosaxleobaSi, ricxovnobis da xvedri wilis dinamika,

struqtura, ori periodis ganmavlobaSi momxdari struqturuli Zvrebi.

mosaxleobis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis donis sapirispirod SeiZleba

gamovTvaloT `ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ donis maxasiaTebeli, kerZod,

`ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ koeficienti, romelic gamoiTvleba samuSao

Zalis gareT myofi mosaxleobis ricxovnobis SefardebiT 15 wlis da

ufrosi asakis mosaxleobis ricxovnobasTan, gamosaxuli procentebSi.

10

100.T15

ek.pas.

pas.

TK , sadac (1.2)

pas.K - aris mosaxleobis `ekonomikuri pasiurobis~ koeficienti;

ek.pas.T - samuSao Zalis gareT myofi mosaxleoba.

ramdenadac 15 wlis da ufrosi asakis mosaxleoba iyofa ekonomikurad

aqtiur da pasiur nawilebad, aqtiurobis da pasiurobis koeficientebs

erTi da igive mniSvneli aqvT. Sesabamisad mocemuli maCveneblebis jami

100,0%-is tolia:

%100 pas.aqt. KK (1.3)

Sesabamisad, Tu cnobilia erTis mniSvneloba, SeiZleba gaangariSebis

gareSe gavigoT meores mniSvneloba:

pas.aqt. KK %100 (1.4)

aqt.pas. KK %100 (1.5)

ekonomikurad aqtiuri mosaxleobis mniSvnelovan nawils rogorc

raodenobrivad, ise socialur-ekonomikuri mniSvnelobiT warmoadgens

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba. dasaqmeba gansazRvravs mosaxleobis Semosavlebs

da Sesabamisad cxovrebis dones. misi zrda iwvevs umuSevrobis Semcirebas

da Sesabamisad – qveyanaSi arsebuli socialuri fonis gaumjobesebas.

aqedan gamomdinare statistikas dasaqmebis Seswavlis kuTxiT

mniSvnelovani amocanebis Sesruleba akisria. kerZod saWiroa

ganisazRvros: dasaqmebulTa mTliani ricxovnoba da misi ganawileba

dasaqmebis statusis, ekonomikis seqtorebis, ekonomikuri saqmianobis

saxeebis (dargebis), dakavebuli Tanamdebobebis mixedviT da igive WrilSi

Seiswavleba meoradi dasaqmeba.

dasaqmeba ganixileba sqesobriv-asakobriv, aseve regionul da qalaq-

soflis WrilSi. Sinameurneobebis kvlevis masalebis dajgufeba

saSualebas iZleva dadgindes da gaanalizdes dasaqmebis donis, dinamikis

da struqturuli Zvrebis tendenciebi. saqarTvelos statistika jerovan

yuradRebas uTmobs meoradad (araZiriTadad, SeTavsebiT) dasaqmebulTa

statistikur aRricxvas da analizs, romelic moicavs igive niSnebis

registracias, rac xdeba ZiriTadi dasaqmebis SemTxvevaSi.

mosaxleobis dasaqmebis statistikaSi ZiriTad maCvenebels warmoadgens dasaqmebis done. dasaqmebis done xasiaTdeba mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficientiT, romelic miiReba dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis SefardebiT ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. dasaqmebis koeficienti gamoiTvleba rogorc:

11

100.T aqt.ek.

das.

das.

TK , sadac ( 1.6)

das.K - aris mosaxleobis dasaqmebis koeficienti;

das.T - dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis ricxovnoba.

dasaqmebuli mosaxleoba statusis mixedviT iyofa daqiravebul da TviTdasaqmebul mosaxleobad. dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriebis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi ricxovnebis, dinamikisa da struqturis maCveneblebi. dasaqmebulebs miekuTvneba agreTve gaurkveveli saqmianobis pirebi. dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis struqtura statusis mixedviT gvixasiaTebs

calkeuli kategoriis dasaqmebulTa xvedriT wils procentebSi

dasaqmebuli mosaxleobis mTlian ricxovnobaSi. Sesabamisi maCveneblebi

1998-2015 wlebSi saqarTveloSi Semdeg suraTs iZleva:1

wlebi 1998 1999 2002 2004 2008 2013 2015

sul dasaqmebulebi 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0

maT Soris:

daqiravebulebi 41,9 41,2 35,4 33,7 35,7 38,4 42,3

TviTdasaqmebulebi 57,1 54,2 64,4 66,2 64,2 61,0 57,2

gaurkveveli 1,0 4,6 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,6 0,5

monacemebi gviCvenebs dasaqmebis struqturaSi momxdar Zvrebs, rac imaSi

gamoixateba, rom ganxiluli periodis manZilze mniSvnelovnad izrdeba

TviTdasaqmebulTa xvedri wili, odnav mcirdeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa

xvedri wili da mniSvnelovnad mcirdeba gaurkveveli saqmianobis mqone

pirTa xvedri wili.

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT moicavs

dasaqmebulTa ganawilebas ekonomikis saxelmwifo da arasaxelmwifo

seqtorebSi. ekonomikis saxelmwifo seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa saxelmwifo

sakuTrebis sawarmoebad da sabiujeto organizaciebad an dawesebulebebad.

arasaxelmwifo seqtori Tavis mxriv iyofa arasaxelmwifo sakuTrebis

sawarmoebad da ucxoeTis an erTobliv sawarmo-organizaciebad.

dasaqmebulTa ganawileba ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis

(dargebis) mixedviT moicavs dasaqmebulTa ganawilebas ekonomikuri

saqmianobis im saxeebis mixedviT, romlebSic dasaqmebulia dasaqmebulTa 3

da meti procenti. saqmianobis aRniSnuli saxeebia:

_ soflis meurneoba, nadiroba da satyeo meurneoba;

_ damamuSavebeli mrewveloba;

1 gamoTvlilia cxrili 1.1-is safuZvelze, procentebSi

12

_ vaWroba, avtomobilebis, sayofacxovrebo nawarmisa da piradi moxmarebis

sagnebis remonti;

_ transporti da kavSirgabmuloba;

_ saxelmwifo mmarTveloba;

_ ganaTleba;

_ janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri daxmareba;

_ danarCeni.

saqarTvelos statistika aseve Seiswavlis dasaqmebulTa ganawilebas

Semdegi Tanamdebobebis mixedviT:

_ marTvis organoebis xelmZRvanelebi;

_ umaRlesi donis kvalificiuri specialistebi;

_ saSualo donis kvalificiuri specialistebi;

_ sakancelario saqmiT da aRricxviT dakavebuli pirebi;

_ momsaxurebis sferoSi dasaqmebulebi;

_ soflis meurneobis muSakebi;

_ warmoebis kvalificiuri muSakebi;

_ operatorebi, memanqaneebi da meaparateebi;

_ arakvalificiuri muSebi;

_ danarCeni

saqarTvelos statistikaSi mTlianad dasaqmebasTan erTad didi

mniSvneloba eniWeba daqiravebiT dasaqmebulTa statistikur Seswavlas

igive niSnebis mixedviT, rogoricaa saerTod dasaqmebulTa Seswavlis

SemTxvevaSi, ramdenadac dasaqmebulTa aRniSnuli kategoriis absoluturi

da SefardebiT zrda sabazro ekonomikaze gadasvlis piroba da

imavdroulad Sedegicaa.

meoradad dasaqmeba (SeTavseba) dRevandel saqarTveloSi mniSvnelovan

rols asrulebs. jer erTi, paradoqsulia, Tumca faqtia, rom umuSevrobis

pirobebSi adgili aqvs samuSao Zalis deficits. magram laparakia ara

raodenobriv, aramed kvalificiuri, dRevandeli samecniero-teqnologiuri

revoluciis moTxovnebisadmi adekvaturi donis samuSao Zalaze.

Sesabamisad maRalkvalificiuri samuSao Zalis deficitis pirobebSi

aseTi kvalificiis samuSao Zalis meoradad dasaqmeba saWirocaa da

aucilebelic. meore-meoradad dasaqmeba ojaxis biujetis Sevsebis

garkveuli wyaroa da meoradad dasaqmebis ZiriTadi mizezi.

meoradad dasaqmebis dones gansazRvravs masze moTxovna, e.i

vakanturi adgilebis arseboba. meoradad dasaqmebis statistikuri

analizi mimdinareobs saerTod dasaqmebis statistikuri analizis

identurad, ramdenadac es SesaZlebelia arsebuli statistikuri

informaciis pirobebSi.

5. mosaxleobis umuSevrobis statistika

13

umuSevroba warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes makroekonomikur maCvenebels.

esaa movlena, rodesac samuSao Zalis miwodeba aRemateba masze moTxovnas.

umuSevrobis statistika Seiswavlis umuSevarTa ricxvs, umuSevrobis dones

sqesis, asakis, qalaqisa da soflis, regionebis mixedviT.

umuSevrobis dones vaxasiaTebT umuSevrobis koeficientiT, romelic gamoiTvleba mocemul wels umuSevarTa ricxvis SefardebiT ekonomikurad aqtiur mosaxleobasTan da gamoisaxeba procentebSi. kerZod:

100.aqt.ek.

umuS.

umuS.T

TK (1.7)

sadac umuS.K _ aris umuSevrobis koeficienti;

umuS.T _ umuSevrebis ricxvi.

dasaqmebis da umuSevrobis maCveneblebis jami 100%-is tolia. Sesabamisad, Tu cnobilia erTi maTgani, iolad gamovTvliT meoresac. dasaqmebis saxelmwifo samsaxuri awarmoebs umuSevarTa registracias

Semdegi maCveneblebiT.

1. registrirebuli samuSaos maZieblebi, (aTasi kaci)

2. registrirebuli umuSevrebi, aTasi kaci

3. maT Soris qali, aTasi kaci

4 maT Soris qali, procentulad

5. Semweobis mimRebi umuSevarTa ricxvi, aTasi kaci

6. saSualoTviuri Semweoba, gacemuli erT umuSevarze, lari

7. registrirebuli vakansiebi, aTasi

8. umuSevarTa raodenoba erT vakansiaze

9. dasaqmebis samsaxuris mier dasaqmebuli samuSaos maZieblebi, aTasi kaci

10. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba asakis mixedviT:

absolutur sidideebSi, aTasi kaci, struqtura _ procentulad

sul umuSevrebi maT Soris asaki:

16-29, 30-49, 50 da meti

11. registrirebul umuSevarTa ganawileba ganaTlebis donis mixedviT

umuSevari sul

maT Soris aqvT ganaTleba: dawyebiTi an sabazo, arasruli saSualo,

sruli saSualo, umaRlesi.

umuSevrobis bunebriv doned miCneulia 5,5-6,0%.

6. samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistika

ekonomikuri saqmianobis procesSi adgili aqvs sawarmo-

dawesebulebebSi da organizaciebSi dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis moZraobas.

saqme isaa, rom rogorc wesi, garkveuli mosazrebebidan gamomdinare

14

adamianebi icvlian samuSao adgils, mimdinareobs samuSaoze miRebis da

ganTavisuflebis uwyveti procesi, romelic warmoadgens samuSao Zalis

moZraobas. aRniSnuli procesis Sedegad adgili aqvs samuSao Zalis

gadanawilebas sawarmoebs, dargebs da regionebs Soris. Teoriulad es

procesebi SeiZleba mimdinareobdes erovnul ekonomikaSi das aqmebulTa

saerTo ricxovnobis ucvlelobis pirobebSic.

samuSao Zalis moZraoba aris obieqturi procesi da mimdinareobs

uwyvetad. misi gamomwvevi mizezebi SeiZleba iyos mravalnairi: pensiaze

gasvla, armiaSi gawveva, samuSao asakSi Sesvla, ojaxis Seqmna da

Sesabamisad sacxovrebeli adgili Secvla, axali samuSao adgilebis

Seqmna, ukeTesi samuSaos povna, SromiTi konfliqtebi, gardacvaleba da

sxva.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikis amocanebia daaxasiaTos samuSao

Zalis moZraobis saerTo moculoba, misi mimarTulebebi, intensivoba,

gamomwvevi mizezebi.

dasmuli amocanebis gadasawyvetad samuSao Zalis statistikaSi

gamoiTvleba absoluturi da SefardebiTi sidideebi. absolutur

sidideebs miekuTvneba garkveul periodSi samuSaoze miRebulTa da

samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi. miRebulTa da wasulebis ricxvis jams

ewodeba samuSao Zalis brunva. Sesabamisad, samuSao Zalis brunva

gamoiTvleba samuSaoze miRebis da wasvlis mixedviT.

samuSaodan wasvlis mixedviT samuSao Zalis brunva iyofa aucilebel

da zedmet brunvad.

samuSao Zalis aucilebel brunvas miekuTvneba samuSaodan wasvla

iseTi mizezebiT, rogoricaa magaliTad: pensiaze gasvla, gardacvaleba,

SromiTi xelSekrulebis (kontraqtis) damTavreba da kanoniT

gaTvaliswinebuli sxva SemTxvevebi: samxedro samsaxurSi gawveva,

dainvalideba, Statebis Semcireba sawarmos reorganizaciis an gakotrebis

Sedegad da sxva.

samuSao Zalis zedmet brunvas miakuTvneben samuSaodan sakuTari

surviliT, disciplinis darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad

wasulebs. samuSao Zalis zedmeti brunva cnobilia kadrebis (samuSao

Zalis) denadobis saxeliTac da warmoebis efeqtian funqcionirebaze

uaryofiTad moqmedebs, ramdenadac saWiroa wasulebis Secvla aranaklebi

kvalifikaciis mqone samuSao ZaliT rac dros moiTxovs. Sesabamisad

adgili eqneba samuSao drois dakargvas mocemul periodSi. axali

kadrebis miReba moiTxovs maT adaptacias da integracias mocemul

sawarmoSi, rac aseve garkveul fsiqologiur barierebTan aris

dakavSirebuli. amasTan is danaxarjebi. romelic (Tu) gaswia sawarmom

wasuli muSakebis kvalifikaciis asamaRleblad, ubralod ikargeba.

Sesabamisad, saWiro statistikuri informaciis arsebobis pirobebSi

samuSao Zalis moZraobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba gamoTvlili iqnes

sawarmos, dargis, erovnuli ekonomikis, regionebis WrilSi sqesis, asakis,

15

profesiebis, ganaTlebis donis da sxva niSnebis mixedviT, romelTagan

umniSvnelovanesia samuSao Zalis denadoba mizezebis mixedviT. samuSao

Zalis denadobis sulyofili analizi SeiZleba miRebuli iqnes mxolod

misi kompleqsuri statistikur-sociologiuri gamokvlevis safuZvelze.

kerZod, samuSao Zalis denadobis statistikuri, raodenobrivi analizi

Seivseba denadobis mizezebis siRrmiseuli sociologiuri SeswavliT,

Sesabamisi sociologiuri gamokiTxviT, am mizniT Sedgenili kiTxvaris

safuZvelze, romliTac gamoikiTxebian samuSaodan wasulebi.

gansakuTrebuli yuradReba unda mieqces SromiTi konfliqtebis Sedegad

gamowveul samuSao Zalis denadobas.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis statistikuri daxasiaTeba SeuZlebelia

momuSaveTa siobrivi da saSualo siobrivi ricxvis codnis gareSe.

sawarmoSi momuSaveTa siobriv ricxvSi aRiricxeba yvela, vinc mocemul

sawarmoSi muSaobs erT dReze meti xniT. momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi

ricxvi gaiangariSeba Tvis ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis Tvis yoveli dRis

momuSaveTa siobrivi ricxvis jami gaiyofa Tvis kalendaruli dReebis

ricxvze. arasamuSao da uqme dReebis siobriv ricxvad CaiTvleba maTi wina

dRis siobrivi ricxvi. arasruli samuSao Tvis SemTxvevaSi namuSevari

dReebis siobrivi ricxvis jami iyofa aseve Tvis kalendaruli dReebis

ricxvze. Tu monacemebi siobrivi ricxvis Sesaxeb saerTod ar gvaqvs raime

Tvis ganmavlobaSi, maSin am Tvis saSualo siobrivi ricxvi SeiZleba

miviRoT rogorc wina Tvis bolo da momdevno Tvis pirveli dRis

siobrivi ricxvis jamis saSualo ariTmetikuli. momuSaveTa

saSualoTviuri siobrivi ricxvis safuZvelze saSualo ariTmetikulis

daxmarebiT gamoiTvleba saSualokvartaluri, saSualonaxevarwliuri da

saSualowliuri siobrivi ricxvi, risTvisac sami, eqvsi da Tormeti Tvis

saSualo siobriv ricxvTa jamebi Sesabamisad gaiyofa samze,eqvsze da

Tormetze.

samuSao Zalis moZraobis maxasiaTebeli statistikur maCvenebelTa

sistema moicavs Semdeg maCveneblebs:

1. absoluturi maCveneblebi:

_ samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi;

_ samuSaodan wasulebis ricxvi:

_ samuSao Zalis saerTo brunva _ samuSaoze miRebulebisa da samuSaodan

wasulebis ricxvis jami;

_ mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi saangariSo periodSi _ miiReba periodis

dasawyisSi momuSaveTa siobriv ricxvs gamoklebuli mocemul periodSi

samuSaodan wasulebi.

2. SefardebiTi maCveneblebi: gamoiTvlebian konkretuli periodis

mixedviT, rogoricaa Tve, kvartali, naxevari weli, weli.

1. samuSao Zalis mudmivobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

16

K1

mudmivad momuSaveTa ricxvi100;

momuSaveTa saSualo siobrivi ricxvi

(1.8)

2. samuSao Zalis ganaxlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K2

samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi100;


(1.9)

3. samuSao Zalis wasvlis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K3

samuSaodan ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi100;


(1.10)

4. samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

1004 ricxvi siobrivi saSualo momuSaveTa

brunva) (zedmeti denadobaK (1.11)

samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti zemoTmotanili formuliT

SeiZleba gamovTvaloT mizezebis mixedviTac, rogoricaa: sakuTari

surviliT, disciplinis darRvevis da SromiTi konfliqtis Sedegad

wasulebi. samuSao Zalis denadobis koeficienti aseve cnobilia rogorc

kadrebis denadobis koeficienti.

5. samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogoorc:

K5

samuSaoze miRebulTa da ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvis jami100;


(1.12)

samuSao Zalis saerTo brunvis koeficienti ( K5 ) samuSao Zalis

ganaxlebis (K2 ) da samuSaodan Zalis wasvlis (

K3 ) koeficientebis jamis

tolia.

6. samuSao Zalis Canacvlebis koeficienti, gamoiTvleba rogorc:

K6

samuSaoze miRebulTa ricxvi 100;

samuSaodan yvela mizeziT ganTavisuflebulTa ricxvi

( 1.13)

Canacvlebis koeficienti SeiZleba miviRoT samuSao Zalis

ganaxlebis koeficientis (K2 ) gayofiT wasvlis koeficientTan (

K3 );

K K K: .6 2 3

(1.14)

17

K K2 3da -s mniSvnelSi erTi da igive sidide aqvT: momuSaveTa saSualo

siobrivi ricxvi, romlebic gayofisas erTmaneTs Sekvecavs da miviRebT K6 -

is gamosaxulebas.

7. Sromis anazRaurebis statistika

Sromis anazRaureba, anu xelfasi warmoadgens Sesrulebuli

samuSaosaTvis daricxul anazRaurebas fuladi formiT. is moicavs aseve

sxvadasxva saxis waxalisebebs, Svebulebebis, sadResaswauli dReebis da

sxva umuSevari drois anazRaurebas, romlebic SromiTi kanonmdeblobiT an

individualuri SromiTi xelSekrulebiT eqvemdebareba anazRaurebas.

Sromis anazRaurebis statistikis winaSe dgas Semdegi amocanebi:

1. xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra;

2. xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi;

3. xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi;

4. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi.

xelfasis fondis moculobis gansazRvra. xelfasis fondi warmoadgens

sawarmoebis da organizaciebis mier Sromis anazRaurebisaTvis daricxul

Tanxas. xelfasis fondi moicavs sxvadasxva danamatebsac, rogoricaa

premiebi, anazRaureba avadmyofobis SemTxvevaSi da a.S.

sawarmoebis da organizaciebis xelfasis fondebis jami gvaZlevs

dargis xelfasis fonds, xolo dargebis xelfasis fondebis jami –

erovnuli ekonomikis xelfasis fonds. statistikis mier aRiricxeba

xelfasis saaTobrivi, dRiuri da Tveobrivi fondebi – romlebic

ukavSirdeba Sesabamis namuSevar dros. xelfasis kvartaluri,

naxevarwliuri da wliuri fondebi miiReba 3, 6 da 12 Tvis xelfasis

fondebis SekrebiT.

xelfasis fondi mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri kategoriaa, romelze

dayrdnobiTac gaiangariSeba saSualo xelfasis maCveneblebi. is

warmoadgens produqciis TviTRirebulebis Semadgenel nawils. xelfasis

fondis absoluturi moculobis maCveneblebi gamoiyeneba mosaxleobis

cxovrebis donis da samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis analizisTvis da a.S.

xelfasis donis da dinamikis analizi. xelfasis done xasiaTdeba

saSualo xelfasis maCvenebliT da gaiangariSeba xelfasis fondis

SefardebiT namuSevar drosTan an rogorc wesi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan.

statistikaSi gamoiTvleba saSualo xelfasis Semdegi maCveneblebi:

saSualo saaTobrivi xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis saaTobrivi

fondis SefardebiT namuSevari kac-saaTebis raodenobasTan. kac-saaTi

warmoadgens srulad namuSevar erT saaTs.

saSualo dRiuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis dRiuri fondis

SefardebiT namuSevari kac-dReebis raodenobasTan. kac-dRe aris

18

namuSevari erTi dRe. is moicavs momuSavisgan damoukidebel dRis Siga

mocdenebsac.

saSualoTviuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba xelfasis Tviuri fondis

SefardebiT Tvis ganmavlobaSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvTan. xelfasis Tviuri

fondi moicavs yvela saxis anazRaurebas.

saSualo kvartaluri, naxevarwliuri da wliuri xelfasi: gamoiTvleba

saSualoTviuri xelfasis analogiurad. Tumca gamoTvlebis

gasamartiveblad saqarTvelos saxelmwifo statistikis praqtikaSi

dasaqmebulis saSualoTviuri xelfasis misaRebad saSualowliuri

xelfasi gaiyofa 12-ze.

saSualo xelfasi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

T

Ff

; ( 1.15)

sadac f _ aris saSualo xelfasi;

F _ xelfasis fondi;

T _ dasaqmebulTa ricxvi.

xelfasis donis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT. kerZod,

0

1

f

fi ( 1.16)

xelfasis donis dinamikasTan erTad statistikis mniSvnelovan

amocanas warmoadgens xelfasis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebis

gavlenis gazomva. saqme isaa, rom erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa

xelfasis done yalibdeba saqmianobis sxvadasxva dargebis saSualo

xelfasebis Sedegad. Sesabamisad, romelime dargSi saSualo xelfasis

zrda an Semcireba aisaxeba mTeli ekonomikis saSualo xelfasis zrdaze

an Semcirebaze. meore mxriv, Tu dasaqmebulebSi gaizrdeba an Semcirdeba

maRal (dabal) xelfasian dargSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvi da xvedri wili,

esec gazrdis an Seamcirebs saSualo xelfasis maCvenebels.

Sesabamisad, erovnul ekonomikaSi dasaqmebulTa saSualo xelfasis

cvlilebaze moqmedebs ori faqtori: saSualo xelfasis cvlileba

calkeul dargebSi da dasaqmebulTa ricxvis (xvedri wilis) cvlileba

dargebis mixedviT, e.w. `struqturuli Zvrebi~.

orive faqtoris gavlenas xelfasis doneze vadgenT xelfasis

cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsiT, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

1 0

1 0

F F

T T : ,

J =

rac igivea,

1

0

f

f ( 1.17)

19

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom xelfasis fondi 1F gamomdinare 1.15

formulidan tolia Tf da am gamosaxulebas F 1F-is nacvlad SevitanT

1.17 formulaSi, miviRebT xelfasis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqss.

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

1 0:

ffJ =

( 1.18)

xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze calkeul dargebSi saSualo

xelfasis cvlilebis gavlenas vadgenT xelfasis fiqsirebuli

Semadgenlobis indeqsiT.

1 1

1 1

T T

T T

1 0:

ffJ =

( 1.19)

xelfasis saerTo donis cvlilebaze dasaqmebis dargobrivi

struqturis cvlilebis gasazomad gamoiyeneba xelfasis struqturuli

Zvrebis indeqsi.

1 0

1 0

T T

T T

0 0:

ffJ =

(1.20)

saerTod, saindeqso analizi saSualebas gvaZlevs davadginoT saSualo

xelfasis absolutur cvlilebaze calkeuli faqtoris gavlena.

xelfasis diferenciaciis analizi. dasaqmebulis xelfasis sidide

damokidebulia mis ganaTlebaze, kvalifikaciaze, asakze da sxva

faqtorebze, romlebic iwveven dasaqmebuli samuSao Zalis Sromis

anazRaurebis diferenciacias.

xelfasis diferenciacias adgili aqvs makrodonezec, rogoricaa:

ekonomikuri saqmianobis saxeebis da sqesis mixedviT, aseve regionebis

mixedviT.

saqstatis monacemebiT, 2015 wlisaTvis ekonomikaSi daqiravebiT

dasaqmebulTa saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi Seadgenda 773,1 lars;

mSeneblobaSi _ 868,2 lars, jandacvasa da socialur daxmarebaSi _ 667,9

lars, ganaTlebaSi _ 422,9 lars, safinanso saqmianobaSi _ 1505,8 lars,

saxelmwifo mmarTvelobaSi _ 1152,1 lars da a.S.

amave, 2015 wels, kacebis saSualoTviuri nominaluri xelfasi toli

iyo 920,3 laris,xolo qalebis 585,0 laris, e.i. 335,3 lariT naklebi.

saqarTveloSi istoriulad arsebuli qalis kultis pirobebSi, saxezea

maTi diskriminaciis samarcxvino faqti (lekvi lomisa sworia, Zu iyos

Tunda xvadia?).

20

nominaluri xelfasi aris daricxuli xelfasi. misi gayofiT

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze (sfi) miviRebT realur xelfass. kerZod,

Tu 2015 wels saqarTveloSi nominaluri xelfasi aris 773,1 lari, xolo

sfi 99,5%, maSin realuri xelfasi tolia: 773,1 : 0,995 = 777 laris. e.i.

fasebis Semcirebam gamoiwvia realuri xelfasis zrda nominalurTan

SedarebiT 5,9 lariT. fasebis zrdis pirobebSi, reluri xelfasi

nominalurTan SedarebiT Semcirdeba.

statistikasa da ekonomikaSi gamoiTvlian realuri xelfasis

msyidvelobiTunarianobas. es ukanaskneli gaizomeba im saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis moculobiT, romlis SeZenac SeiZleba realuri xelfasiT.

magaliTad, Tu 2015 wels 1 kg. kartofili Rirda saSualod1,5 lari, maSin

amave wlis 777 lari realuri xelfasis msyidv- elobiTi unari aris _ 777:

1,5 (erTi kg. kartofilis fasi)= 518 kg. kartofils da a.S.

8. samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis statistikuri analizi

danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze warmoadgens sabazro ekonomikis

damaxasiaTebel kategorias. is warmoadgens danaxarjebs, romlebic

dakavSirebulia samuSao Zalis daqiravebasa da uzrunvelyofasTan.

statistikis amocanebia samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis donis,

struqturis da dinamikis dadgena.

samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis done gaizomeba danaxarjebis

moculobiT saSualod erT muSakze gaangariSebiT. saqarTvelos

ekonomikaSi aRniSnuli maCvenebeli 2002 wels 1806,47 laridan 2004 wels

gaizarda 2403,4 laramde, xolo 2005 wels – 3051,8 laramde.

samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis struqturis Sesaswavlad saWiroa

danaxarjebis dajgufeba erTgvarovan jgufebad, xolo Semdeg

ganisazRvreba TiToeulis xvedri wili danaxarjebis mTlian jamSi.

samuSao Zalaze danaxarjebis saerTaSoriso standartuli klasifikacia

moicavs danaxarjebis 10 jgufs:

1. xelfasi;

2. arasamuSao drois anazRaureba;

3. premiebi da saCuqrebi;

4. kveba, sasmelebi da sxva anazRaurebebi naturaluri formiT;

5. danaxarjebi momuSaveTa sacxovrebelze, romelsac Tavis Tavze

iRebs damqiravebeli;

6. damqiraveblis xarjebi socialur uzrunvelyofaze;

7. danaxarjebi profesiul momzadebaze;

21

8. danaxarjebi socialur momsaxurebaze;

9. sxva danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze;

10. gadasaxadebi, ganxiluli, rogorc samuSao Zalis danaxarjebi.

saqarTveloSi, ZiriTadi danaxarjebi samuSao Zalaze modis xelfasze

(≈80,0%) da socdazRvevis danaricxebze (16,0%).

saqarTvelos statistika samuSao Zalaze gaweuli danaxarjebis

Sesaxeb informacias moipovebs da amuSavebs ekonomikuri saqmianobis

saxeebis mixedviTac.

9. Sromis nayofierebis statistika

Sromis nayofiereba aris adamianis unari, drois erTeulSi awarmoos

produqciis garkveuli raodenoba. amis mixedviT gaiangariSeben saaTobriv,

dRiur, Tviur, kvartalur da wliur Sromis nayofierebas.

Sromis nayofierebis statistikis amocanebia gansazRvros Sromis

nayofierebis done, dinamika da masze moqmedi faqtorebi.

Sromis nayofierebis done – u gaiangariSeba warmoebuli produqciis

moculobis – q SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa ricxvze, Т. kerZod,

T

qu (1.22)

mocemuli maCvenebeli aris saSualo sidide da gviCvenebs saSualod

erT dasaqmebulze warmoebuli produqciis moculobas.

Sromis nayofierebis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia Sromatevadoba,

romelic gamoiTvleba Semdeg formuliT:

q

Tt (1.23)

sadac t aris Sromatevadoba;

T - produqciis warmoebaze daxarjuli dro;

q - warmoebuli produqciis moculoba.

Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas vaxasiaTebT indeqsebiT:

0

1

u

ui ;

0

0

1

1

T

q

T

qJ (1.24)

Tu mocemul formulaSi SevitanT formula 1.22-idan miRebul q -s

mniSvnelobas, q = и -s, maSin formula 8.24 miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

T

TT

01 1

01

: .

0и и

J =

(1.25)

22

mocemuli indeqsi aris Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis

indeqsi.

rodesac vzomavT Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikas, davuSvaT ori

an meti dargisaTvis, maSin maTi saerTo Sromis nayofierebis dinamikaze

imoqmedebs ori faqtori: Sromis nayofierebis doneTa cvlileba TviToeul

dargSi da struqturuli Zvrebi. struqturuli Zvrebis gavlena niSnavs,

rom calkeul dargSi Sromis nayofierebis ucvlelobis pirobebSic ki

saerTo Sromis nayofiereba gaizrdeba, TuU gaizrdeba im dargSi

dasaqmebulTa xvedri wili, romelSic maRalia Sromis nayofiereba.

Sromis nayofierebis cvalebadi Semadgenlobis indeqsze moqmedebs

orive faqtori.

Sromis nayofierebis donis dinamikaze moqmedi faqtorebi calk_calke

gaizomeba Sromis nayofierebis fiqsirebuli da struqturuli Zvrebis

indeqsiT.

fiqsirebuli indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze

TviToeul dargSi Sromis nayofierebis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi

formulaa:

T

TT

1 1 1

11

:

0и и

J =

(1.26)

struqturuli Zvrebis indeqsiT vadgenT saerTo Sromis nayofierebaze

dasaqmebis dargobrivi struqturis cvlilebis gavlenas. misi formulaa:

T

TT

1 0 0

01

:

0и и

J =

. ( 1.27)

mSp-s indeqsi dasaqmebis da Sromis nayofierebis indeqsebis namravlis

tolia.

23

Tema 2

ZiriTadi da sabrunavi kapitalis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra

2. aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi

3. ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

4. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi

5. ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi

6. ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa

7. ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareobis, moZraobisa da

vargisianobis maCveneblebi

8. ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

9. ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi

10. sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

11. sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis

maCveneblebi

1. erovnuli simdidris zogadi koncefcia da gansazRvra

qveynis erovnuli simdidris obieqturi da sruli Sefaseba, misi

struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla statistikis mniSvnelovan amocanad

gvevlineba. es monacemebi aucilebelia saxelmwifo marTvis

organoebisaTvis, raTa ganaxorcielon ekonomikuri ganviTarebis analizi,

ekonomikuri politikis SemuSaveba, gadawyvetilebebis miReba arsebuli

resursebis gamoyenebis efeqtianobis amaRlebisaTvis, dabegvris

srulyofis problemebis gadawyveta. erovnuli simdidris Sesaxeb

monacemebi aucilebelia samecniero-kvleviTi dawesebulebebisaTvis,

romlebic Seiswavlian makroekonomikas, ageben prognozul modelebs,

aanalizeben ekonomikuri zrdis faqtorebs, gamoikevleven ekonomikaze

ekologiuri procesebis zegavlenas, atareben alternatiul gaangariSebebs,

afarToeben ekonomikuri analizis sazRvrebs. garda amisa, qveynis

erovnuli simdidris Sefasebam SeiZleba daainteresos investorebi, maT

Soris, ucxoelebi.

erovnuli simdidris koncefcia, romelic rekomendebulia erovnul

angariSTa sistemaSi SeiZleba mokled Semdegnairad warmovadginoT:

erovnuli simdidre _ es aris mocemuli qveynis rezidenti instituciuri

erTeulebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami raime TariRisaTvis

(wlis dasawyisSi an bolosaTvis).

24

kapitalis wminda Rirebuleba _ esaa instituciuri erTeulis yvela

ekonomikuri aqtivis (arafinansuri da finansuri) Rirebulebasa da maT

finansur valdebulebaTa sidides Soris sxvaoba.

mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis erovnuli simdidre udris arafinansuri

aqtivebis Rirebulebas damatebuli wminda finansuri moTxovnebi danarCen

msofliosTan. erovnuli simdidre SeiZleba agreTve gansazRvruli iyos,

rogorc ekonomikis seqtorebis kapitalis wminda RirebulebaTa jami, maTi

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis gaTvaliswinebiT. erovnuli

simdidris gaangariSebisas mxedvelobaSi miiReba mxolod sazRvargareTis

finansuri aqtivebisa da valdebulebebis saldo, vinaidan erovnuli

ekonomikis seqtorebs Soris warmoqmnili finansuri aqtivebi da

valdebulebebi urTierTgdaifareba.

erovnul simdidreSi CarTuli unda iyos mxolod is aqtivebi, romlebzec

konkretul sameurneo subieqtebs SeuZliaT gaavrcelon sakuTrebis

ufleba (aseTi aqtivebs ekonomikuri aqtivebi ewodeba).

erovnul simdidres ar miekuTvneba moZiebuli bunebrivi resursebi,

romlebic ama Tu im mizezis gamo ar iyo CarTuli ekonomikur procesSi,

ar warmoadgens konkretuli instituciuri erTeulebis sakuTrebas. yvela

aqtivi da valdebuleba unda Sefasdes im momentisaTvis arsebul sabazro

fasebSi da ara maTi SeZenis fasebSi, rasac xSirad aqvs adgili

sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi.

2. aqtivebis klasifikacia erovnul simdidreSi

ekonomikuri aqtivebi _ es aris Rirebulebis mqone obieqtebi, romlebzec

instituciuri erTeulebis mier individualurad an koleqtiurad

vrceldeba sakuTrebis ufleba da romelTa flobiT (an gamoyenebiT) maT

flobelebs garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi SeuZliaT ekonomikuri

sargeblis miReba.

aqtivebs ar miekuTvneba adamianuri kapitali, bunebrivi aqtivebi, romlebic

ar iTvleba ekonomikur aqtivebad (magaliTad, sahaero sivrce) da

garantiis tipis pirobiTi aqtivebi, romlebic ar warmoadgenen finansur

aqtivebs (magaliTad, valis dafarvis garantia, romelic SemoTavazebulia

mesame mxaris mier, sakredito xazi da a. S.).

erovnul angariSTa sistema-2008-is Sesabamisad yvela aqtivi iyofa ორ

ZiriTad jgufad _ arafinansur da finansur aqtivebad:

I. arafinansuri aqtivebi

1. warmoebuli aqtivebi

25

1.1. ZiriTadi kapitali

sacxovrebeli Senobebi

sxva Senobebi da nagebobebi

arasacxovrebeli Senobebi

sxva nagebobebi

miwis gaumjobeseba

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi

satransporto saSualebebi

sainformacio, kompiuteruli da satelekomunikacio

mowyobilobebi

sxva manqanebi da mowyobilobebi

SeiaraRebis sistemebi

kultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi

produqtuli pirutyvi

mravalwliani produqtuli sasoflo-sameurneo kultu-

rebi da nargavebi

arawarmoebul aqtivebze sakuTrebis uflebis gadacemasTan

dakavSirebuli xarjebi

inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis produqtebi

mecnieruli kvlevebi da damuSavebebi

sasargeblo wiaRiseulis moZieba da maragebis Sefaseba

kompiuteruli programuli uzrunvelyofa da monacemTa

bazebi

literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris

nawarmoebebis originalebi

inteleqtualuri sakuTrebis sxva produqtebi

1.2. materialuri sabrunavi kapitalis maragebi

nedleuli da masalebi

daumTavrebeli warmoeba

kultivirebadi biologiuri resursebis daumTavrebeli

warmoeba

sxva daumTavrebeli warmoeba

mza produqcia

samxedro daniSnulebis materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebi

xelmeored gadasayidi saqoneli

1.3. faseulobani

Zvirfasi qvebi da liTonebi

antikvariati da xelovnebis sxva nimuSebi

sxva faseulobebi

2. arawarmoebuli aqtivebi

2.1. bunebrivi resursebi

miwa

sasargeblo wiaRiseuli

26

arakultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi

wylis resursebi

sxva bunebrivi resursebi

radiosixSireebis diapazonebi

sxva

2.2. kontraqtebi, ijaris xelSekrulebebi da licenziebi

dapatentebuli obieqtebi

saoperacio lizingis gadasacemi xelSekrulebebi

bunebrivi resursebiT sargeblobis nebarTvebi

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis miRebis gansakuTrebuli uflebebi

momaval periodSi

2.3. gudvili da marketinguli aqtivebi

II. finansuri aqtivebi

monetaruli oqro da nasesxobis specialuri uflebebi

naRdi fuli da depozitebi

fasiani qaRaldebi, aqciebis garda

sesxebi

aqciebi da kapitalSi monawileobis sxva saxeebi

dazRvevis teqnikuri rezervebi

kreditorebisa da debitorebis sxva angariSebi.

arafinansuri aqtivebi _ instituciuri erTeulebis mflobelobaSi

arsebuli obieqtebia, romelTa flobas, Senaxvasa da gamoyenebas moaqvs

realuri an potenciuri ekonomikuri sargebeli drois garkveuli periodis

ganmavlobaSi. warmoSobis mixedviT isini iyofa warmoebul da

arawarmoebul aqtivebad.

arafinansuri warmoebuli aqtivebi iqmneba sawarmoo procesis Sedegad da

Sedgeba sami ZiriTadi elementisagan: ZiriTadi kapitali, materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebi (sabrunavi kapitali) da faseulobani.

3. ZiriTadi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitali _ es aris sawarmoo aqtivebi, romlebic sawarmoo

procesSi gamoiyeneba mravaljer an mudmivad, erTi wlisa da meti xnis

ganmavlobaSi.

ganvixiloT ZiriTadi kapitalis zogierTi muxli:

sacxovrebel Senobebs (sacxovriss) miekuTvneba Senobebi, romlebic

mTlianad an nawilobriv gamoiyeneba sacxovreblad binebis saxiT, maT

Sorisaa sacxovrisebTan dakavSirebuli nagebobani, magaliTad, avtofarexi

da yvela mowyobiloba, romelic Cveulebriv gvxvdeba sacxovrebel

27

SenobebSi, agreTve mcuravi saxlebi, gadasatani saxlebi da saxli-

furgonebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba rogorc mosaxleobis ZiriTadi

sacxovrisi, agreTve istoriuli Zeglebi, romlebis identificirebulia

rogorc sacxovrebeli Senobebi.

sxva Senobebi da nagebobani _ es aris arasacxovrebeli Senobebi da

nagebobani (magaliTad, sawyobebi, samrewvelo da savaWro sawarmoebis

Senobebi, sastumroebi, restornebi, saswavlo Senobebi da saavadmyofoebi,

gzatkecilebi, xidebi, metropoliteni, kaSxlebi, kavSirgabrulobisa da

eleqtrogadamcemi xazebi, magistraluri milgayvanilobebi da sxv.).

manqanebi da mowyobilobebi _ esaa adamianebisa da tvirTis gadasazidi

satransporto saSualebebi, manqanebi da mowyobilobebi da sainformacio,

kompiuteruli da satelekomunikacio mowyobilobebi. erovnuli simdidris

es elementi ar moicavs Sinameurneobebis mier saboloo moxmarebisaTvis

SeZenil manqanebs da mowyobilobebs (magaliTad, msubuqi avtomobili).

isini aRiricxeba sacnobaro muxlSi _ `xangrZlivi moxmarebis

samomxmareblo saqoneli SinameurneobebSi”. magram, Tu aseTi manqanebi da

mowyobilobani gamoiyeneba SinameurneobaSi sawarmoo procesis

gansaxorcieleblad, maSin isini unda miekuTvnos ZiriTad kapitals.

SeiaraRebis sistemebi – es aris satransporto saSualebebi da sxva

mowyobilobebi, rogoricaa samxedro gemebi, wyalqveSa navebi, samxedro

TviTmfrinavebi, tankebi, raketebis gadasatani da gamSvebi danadgarebi,

romelTac saomari daniSnuleba aqvT, xolo mSvidobis dros –

Semakavebeli.

kultivirebadi biologiuri resursebi _ soflis meurneobaSi ZiriTadi

kapitalis erT-erTi mTavari elementia, romelic moicavs produqtiuli,

sajiSe da muSa pirutyvis, xexilis baRebis, venaxebis da sxva

regularulad msxmoiare mcenareebis plantaciebis Rirebulebas.

kultivirebadi aqtivebis daumTavrebeli warmoeba (mag. mravalwliani

nargavebi, Tu maT ar miuRweviaT simwifis asakisaTvis, anu arasxmoiare an

mozardeuli da suqebaze dayenebuli pirutyvi miekuTvneba materialur

sabrunav saSualebebs).

aseve, ZiriTadi kapitali Sedgeba sasargeblo wiaRiseulis saZiebo

xarjebisagan, im obieqtebis Rirebulebebisgan, romlebic Seqmnilia

adamianis SromiT da warmodgenilia informaciis saxiT eleqtro-

gamoTvliTi manqanebis (kompiuterebis) programul uzrunvelyofaSi,

agreTve literaturis, xelovnebisa da gasarTobi Janris nawarmoebebis

originalebisagan. am jgufis SemadgenlobaSi Sedis agreTve kompiuteruli

bazebis gafarToebis, SeZenisa da damuSavebisaTvis saWiro msxvili

danaxarjebi. igulisxmeba, rom es bazebi gamoiyeneba erT welze meti

vadiT, miuxedavad imisa, xdeba Tu ara maTi realizacia bazarze.

28

4. ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefasebis saxeebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis mravalferovnebis gamo misi saerTo moculobis

Sefaseba mxolod RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSia SesaZlebeli. Sesyidvis

droisa da kapitalis mdgomareobis mixedviT SeiZleba gamoviyenoT

Sefasebis 4 meTodi: sruli Tavdapirveli, sruli aRdgeniTi, Tavdapirveli

Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT da aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis

gamoklebiT.

sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba faqtobrivad ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebaa misi amoqmedebis dros. masSi Sedis ZiriTadi kapitalis

SeZenaze an damzadebaze gaweuli danaxarjebi, agreTve transportireba da

damontaJeba.

Tavdapirveli Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu Tavdapirveli narCeni

Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba rogorc srul Tavdapirvel Rirebulebas -

cveTis Rirebuleba + modernizaciisa da kapitaluri remontis xarjebi.

sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis

kvlavwarmoebis Rirebulebas Tanamedrove pirobebSi, anu mis Seqmnasa da

SeZenaze gaweul danaxarjebs mimdinare fasebSi. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom

aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba ZiriTadi kapitalis sabazro Rirebulebaa. misi

gansazRvra gadafasebis Sedegad xdeba. ZiriTadi kapitalis amoqmedebis

momentSi sruli Tavdapirveli da sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebulebebi

erTmaneTis tolia.

gansxvaveba Tavdapirvel da aRdgeniT Rirebulebebs Soris fasebis

cvlilebazea damokidebuli. amasTan, aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba SeiZleba iyos

rogorc meti, ise naklebi Tavdapirvel Rirebulebaze. es damokidebulia

masalebis, samSeneblo-samontaJo samuSaoebis, satransporto tarifebis da

a.S. fasebis cvlilebis mimarTulebaze.

aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba cveTis gamoklebiT, anu aRdgeniTi narCeni

Rirebuleba axasiaTebs kapitalis faqtiuri cveTis dones kvlavwarmoebis

axal pirobebSi. mis gasaangariSeblad sruli aRdgeniTi Rirebuleba

mravldeba cveTis koeficientze.

ZiriTadi kapitalis SefasebasTan dakavSirebiT erovnul angariSTa

sistemaSi gansakuTrebuli Canawerebia gakeTebuli, raTa realurad moxdes

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSeba, saxeldobr:

ZiriTadi kapitalis Sesyidvebi SeiZleba wina periodebSi ganxorcielda,

rodesac fasebis done mniSvnelovnad gansxvavdeboda mimdinare

periodisagan. amitom ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefaseba imave fasebSi

29

unda moxdes, rogorc gamoSvebis an Sualeduri moxmarebisa warmoebis

angariSSi. Sesabamisad, is fasebi unda gamoviyenoT, romlebic moqmedebs

maTi gamoyenebis periodSi da ara SeZenisas. “istoriuli fasebis”

gamoyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis Sefasebisas ar aris

mizanSewonili, radgan fasebi droSi icvleba.

5. ZiriTadi kapitalis balansi

ZiriTadi kapitalis balansebi gamoiyeneba ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis

Sesaswavlad. ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis bolos gaiangariSeba

Semdegi sabalanso sqemiT:

ო ო ო

balansis monacemebis safuZvelze SesaZlebelia ZiriTadi kapitalis

saSualowliuri Rirebulebis gaangariSeba. SeiZleba ganvixiloT ramdenime

SemTxveva, mag:

1. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis

dasawyisSi da bolos, gaangariSeba warmoebs martivi saSualo

ariTmetikulis daxmarebiT:

( ო ო )

2. rodesac cnobilia ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba Tanabrad

dacilebuli momentebisaTvis (mag. yoveli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis),

saSualowliuri Rirebuleba SeiZleba gaviangariSoT saSualo

qronologiuriT:

= (

,

sadac ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebebia

TiToeuli Tvis 1-eli ricxvisTvis;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis sabalanso Rirebulebaa momdevno wlis 1

ianvrisTvis.

6. ZiriTadi kapitalis cveTa

produqciis realizaciis Sedegad sawarmos ukan ubrundeba ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebulebis nawili, romlis akumulirebis Sedegad iqmneba

saamortizacio anaricxebis fondi, anu amortizaciis fondi.

amortizaciis fondSi Tanxebis akumulireba xdeba yovelwliurad

saamortizacio anaricxebis safuZvelze, rac Tavis mxriv Sedis

30

produqciis TviTRirebulebaSi. amortizaciis wliuri fondi (

gaiangariSeba Semdegi saxiT:

( რ რ რ ო რ ) , sadac

რ _ ZiriTadi kapitalis sruli Tavdapirveli Rirebulebaa;

რ _ narCeni(salikvidacio) Rirebulebaa;

რ _ kapitaluri remontis Rirebulebaa;

ო რ _ modernizaciis Rirebulebaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis samsaxuris normatiuli vadaa.

amortizaciis wliuri norma _ aris amortizaciis wliuri fondis

fardoba ZiriTadi kapitalis srul (srul Tavdapirvel an srul

aRdgeniT) RirebulebasTan da ganisazRvreba formuliT:

რ

Cveulebriv, amortizaciis normebi diferencirebulia ZiriTadi kapitalis

saxeebis mixedviT.

7. ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis, mdgomareobisa da

vargisianobis maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis absoluturi maCveneblebia: ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis dasawyissa da wlis bolos, aseve, wlis

ganmavlobaSi Semosuli da gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba.

ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba wlis bolos gaiangariSeba sabalanso

meTodiT: ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebas wlis dasawyisSi emateba wlis

ganmavlobaSi Semosuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba da akldeba wlis

ganmavlobaSi gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebuleba:

ო ო ო

ZiriTadi kapitalis moZraobis SefardebiTi maCveneblebia:

1. Semosvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli ZiriTadi kapitalis

Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan

saangariSo wlis bolos:

31

ო ო

ო ო

2. ganaxlebis koeficienti gaiangariSeba Semosuli axali ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis

RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis bolos. is gviCvenebs ganaxlebis

dones:

ო

ო ო

3. gasvlis koeficienti gaiangariSeba moqmedebidan gasuli ZiriTadi

kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT ZiriTadi kapitalis

RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis dasawyisSi. is gviCvenebs gasvlis

intensivobas:

4. likvidaciis koeficienti gaiangariSeba siZvelisa da cveTis gamo

moqmedebidan gasuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT

ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan saangariSo wlis dasawyisSi.

5. likvidirebuli ZiriTadi kapitalis Rirebulebis fardobiT

Semosuli ZiriTadi kapitalis RirebulebasTan angariSoben ZiriTadi

kapitalis Secvlis intensivobas.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mdgomareoba(vargisianoba) Seiswavleba Semdegi

maCveneblebiT:

1. cveTis koeficienti gaiangariSeba cveTis Tanxis fardobiT

ZiriTadi kapitalis srul Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is

axasiaTebs ZiriTadi kapitalis xvedriT wils, romelic

axladSeqmnil produqciazea gadatanili. wlis bolosaTvis ZiriTadi

kapitalis cveTis absoluturi Tanxis gansazRvra xdeba mocemuli

TariRisaTvis srul Tavdapirvel da narCen Rirebulebebs Soris

sxvaobiT: რ რ .

რ რ

რ

2. vargisianobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba narCeni Rirebulebis

fardobiT srul Tavdapirvel RirebulebasTan. is axasiaTebs

32

ZiriTadi kapitalis im xvedriT wils, romelic jer ar aris

gadatanili axladSeqmnil produqciaze:

რ ო რ

რ

cveTisa da vargisianobis koeficientebs Soris urTierTkavSiri Semdegi

saxiT gamoisaxeba:

რ ო

manqana-mowyobilobebis asakis dasaxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba maTi saSualo

asaki, sadac ZiriTadi kapitalis TiToeuli erTeulis asaki Sewonilia mis

Sesabamisi asakis manqana-mowyobilobebis raodenobasTan.

8. ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebis maCveneblebi

statistikaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis gamoyenebas swavloben Semdegi

maCveneblebis saSualebiT:

1. kapitalukugeba, romelic gviCvenebs warmoebuli produqciis

moculobas ZiriTadi kapitalis 1 fulad erTeulze, mag. larze:

sadac

_ warmoebuli produqciis Rirebulebaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.

2. kapitaltevadoba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis

moculobas warmoebuli produqciis 1 larze da kapitalukugebis

Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia:

3. kapitalSeiaraReba, romelic gviCvenebs ZiriTadi kapitalis

moculobas 1 momuSaveze:

, sadac

_ samuSao Zalis saSualo raodenobaa;

_ ZiriTadi kapitalis saSualo Rirebulebaa.

am maCveneblebs Soris Semdegi urTierTkavSiria: Tu

kapitalukugebas gavamravlebT kapitalSeiaraRebaze, miviRebT

Sromis mwarmoeblurobas:

33

9. ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamikis maCveneblebi

ZiriTadi kapitalis dinamika Seiswavleba indeqsebis saSualebiT.

ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba individualuri indeqsebi da maTi urTierTkavSiri.

dinamikis maCveneblebis gaangariSebebi mocemulia praqtikuli damxmare

saxelmZRvanelos amoxsnil amocanebSi 2 da 3.

10. sabrunavi kapitalis gansazRvra da klasifikacia

ZiriTadi kapitalisgan gansxvavebiT sabrunavi kapitali (materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebi) sawarmoo procesSi erTjeradad

monawileobs da mTeli Rirebuleba gadaaqvs Seqmnil produqciaze. mis

SemadgenlobaSi Sedis: nedleuli da masalebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba,

mza produqcia, samxedro daniSnulebis materialuri sabrunavi

saSualebebi, xelmeored gadasayidi saqoneli.

nedleuli da masalebi

daumTavrebeli warmoeba

kultivirebadi biologiuri resursebis daumTavrebeli

warmoeba

sxva daumTavrebeli warmoeba

mza produqcia

samxedro daniSnulebis materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebi

xelmeored gadasayidi saqoneli

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebs miekuTvneba saqoneli,

romelic Seqmnilia mimdinare an wina periodSi da inaxeba gasayidad, an

maTi gamoiyeneba warmoebaSi mogvianebiTaa gaTvaliswinebuli. esenia _

masalebisa da nedleulis sawarmoo maragebi, daumTavrebeli warmoeba,

gadasayidi saqoneli, mza produqcia, samxedro daniSnulebis materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebi.

nedleuli da masalebi moicavs saTbobs, instrumentebs,

naxevarfabrikatebs, SesafuT masalas, asawyob komponentebs, sasursaTo

saqonels, sakancelario nivTebs, Tesls, pirutyvis sakvebs da sxva

saqonels, romlebsac maTi mflobeli gamoiyenebs Sualeduri

moxmarebisaTvis sawarmoo procesSi, e.i. saqoneli, romelic gadasayidad

ar aris gankuTvnili. sawarmoo maragis, nedleulisa da masalebis

damaxasiaTebeli Taviseburebaa monawileoba warmoebis erTi ciklis

34

ganmavlobaSi. rogorc wesi, maTi Rirebuleba srulad gadadis maTgan an

maTi monawileobiT warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis RirebulebaSi.

daumTavrebeli warmoeba _ es aris saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelTa

warmoeba dawyebulia, magram bolomde ar aris miyvanili da gagrZeldeba

imave mwarmoeblis mier momaval periodSi. daumTavrebeli warmoeba

saqmianobis yvela saxeSi gvxvdeba, Tumca is ufro mniSvnelovania im

dargebSi, sadac warmoebis xangrZlivi ciklia an rTuli ZiriTadi

kapitali iwarmoeba, rogoricaa gemebi, Senobebi, programuli

uzrunvelyofa an filmebi. daumTavrebeli warmoebis Semcireba

avtomaturad iwvevs mza produqciis zrdas.

mza produqcia _ es aris saqoneli, romelic mzadaa gasayidad, an sxva

sameurneo erTeulebisaTvis gasagzavnad. Tu mwarmoebelma daasrula

produqtis warmoeba, is mza produqtad iTvleba, Tundac SemdegSi is

Sualeduri moxmarebisTvis gamoiyenebodes.

aRsaniSnavia, rom erTi da igive saqoneli SeiZleba mivakuTnoT erovnuli

simdidris sxvadasxva elements imisa mixedviT, Tu rogor gamoiyeneba

mocemul momentSi. magaliTad, Carxi, romelic gamoiyeneba sawarmoo

procesSi, anda romelic unda damontaJdes sawarmoSi, Sedis ZiriTadi

kapitalis SemadgenlobaSi, xolo aseTive Carxi, romelic imyofeba

sawarmo-damamzadeblis mza produqciis sawyobSi, miekuTvneba materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragis kategorias.

samxedro daniSnulebis materialur sabrunav saSualebebs miekuTvneba

erTjeradi gamoyenebis obieqtebi, rogoricaa sabrZolo masalebi, tyviebi,

bombebi, raketebi da a.S.

xelmeored gadasayidi saqoneli warmoadgens sabiTumo an sacalo savaWro

organizaciebSi arsebuli da gasayidad gankuTvnili saqonlis

Rirebulebas.

11. sabrunavi kapitaliT uzrunvelyofisa da gamoyenebis

maCveneblebi

sabrunavi kapitaliT sawarmoo procesis uzrunvelyofisa da efeqturi

gamoyenebis mizniT statistikaSi gamoiyeneba Semdegi maCveneblebi:

1. maragebiT uzrunvelyofis maCvenebeli dReebSi, romelic tolia

faqtiuri maragebis fardobisa maragebis saSualodRiur

moculobasTan:

35

რ რ

რ

2. brunvadobis koeficienti, romelic axasiaTebs sabrunavi kapitalis

saSualo naSTis brunvaTa ricxvs da gaiangariSeba warmoebuli

(realizebuli) produqciis moculobis fardobiT sabrunavi

kapitalis saSualo naSTTan:

რ ო რ

3. datvirTvis koeficienti, romelic gviCvenebs 1 laris realizebuli

produqciis warmoebisaTvis saWiro sabrunavi kapitalis Rirebulebas

da is brunvadobis koeficientis Sebrunebuli sididea:

რ

რ

4. brunvadoba dReebSi anu erTi brunvis saSualo xangrZlivoba,

romelic gviCvenebs dros kalendarul dReebSi, romelic saWiroa

sabrunavi kapitalis erTjeradad amobrunebisTvis. amisaTvis

kalendarul dReTa ricxvi iyofa brunvadobis koeficientze:

რ ო

an რ

36

Tema 3

makroekonomikuri statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

saleqcio sakiTxebi

1. mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da wminda Sida produqti (wSp)

2. mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi

3. mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi

4. erovnuli Semosavali

5. ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli Semosavlebi

6. gankargvadi Semosavali

7. erovnuli danazogi

8. wminda dakrediteba da wminda sesxeba

1. mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) da wminda Sida produqti (wSp)

mTliani Sida produqti (mSp) makroekonomikur statistikaSi yvelaze

xSirad gamoyenebuli indikatoria, romelic qveynis ekonomikuri

saqmianobis Sedegebis daxasiaTebisTvis gamoiyeneba.

mSp-is ganmarteba saerTaSoriso statistikuri standartuli

meTodologiis donezea SeTanxmebuli, romelsac erovnul angariSTa

sistema (eas) ewodeba. eas warmoadgens logikurad Tanamimdevrul,

integrirebul makroekonomikur angariSTa, balansebisa da cxrilebis

sistemas, romelic efuZneba saerTaSoriso doneze SeTanxmebul cnebebs,

ganmartebebs, klasifikaciebsa da aRricxvis wesebs. mSp-is raodenobriv

monacemSi asaxulia mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze drois

garkveul periodSi yvela komerciuli firmis, arakomerciuli

instituciis, saxelmwifo marTvis organosa da Sinameurneobis mier

warmoebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gamoSveba ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis

gareSe. qveynebis umravlesobaSi misi gaangariSeba wliuri da kvartaluri

sixSiriT xdeba, Tumca zogierTi qveynis statistikuri samsaxuris mier

yovelTviuri winaswari Sefasebebic qveyndeba.

mSp-is gaangariSeba martivi ar aris. TvalsaCinoebisTvis SeiZleba

movitanoT regionSi makaronis warmoebis magaliTi. davuSvaT, wlis

ganmavlobSi regionSi saqmianobs mxolod erTi, makaronis mwarmoebeli

firma. maSin, regionis mSp SeiZleba ganvsazRvroT rogorc wlis

ganmavlobaSi gamoSvebuli makaronis raodenoba tonebSi, an misi

Rirebuleba. Tumca, makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad

sakmarisi ar aris mxolod RirebulebiT sazom erTeulebSi gamosaxuli

calkeuli firmebis gamoSvebebis Sejameba, radgan Sedegi didad aris

damokidebuli firmebis organizaciul struqturaze (kerZod, sawarmoo

gadamuSavebis Rirebuleba saamqroebis raodenobis mixedviT), miT ufro

izrdeba gamoSvebis Rirebuleba.

37

swored am faqtoris gaTvaliswinebiT gaCnda idea, rom ekonomikaSi

TiToeuli firmis wvlili ara mTliani gamoSvebis, aramed damatebuli

Rirebulebis mixedviT unda Sefasebuliyo, radgan damatebuli Rirebuleba

warmoadgens danamats firmis danaxarjebis nakadebze, anu sawarmoo

moxmarebaze. damatebuli Rirebulebis gasaangariSeblad firmis gamoSvebis

Rirebulebas akldeba im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebuleba, rac mis

warmoebaze daixarja mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi.

saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelic mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi

ixarjeba warmoebis procesSi, aris Sualeduri moxmareba. gamoSvebidan

Sualeduri moxmarebis gamoricxviT Cven Tavidan vicilebT ganmeorebiT (dublirebul) aRricxvas. ai, amitom aris mSp TiToeuli firmis,

samTavrobo instituciisa da mwarmoebeli Sinameurneobebis damatebuli

Rirebulebebis jami mocemul qveyanaSi: mSp = ∑ damatebuli Rirebulebebi.

radgan TiToeuli damatebuli Rirebuleba gamoSvebisa da Sualeduri

moxmarebis sxvaobis tolia, mSp SeiZleba ase warmovadginoT: mSp = ∑

gamoSvebebi - ∑ Sualeduri moxmarebebi.

axla ganvmartoT, Tu ras niSnavs mTliani Sida produqti, anu mSp. es aris

produqti, anu warmoebis Sedegi _ yvela saqoneli da momsaxureba,

romelic gamoiyeneba saboloo moxmarebis, dagrovebisa da eqsportisTvis;

masSi ar Sedis Sualeduri saqoneli da momsaxureba, romelic

daxarjulia warmoebis procesSi nedleulis, masalis, sawvavis, energiis

da a.S. saxiT; Sida niSnavs, rom produqti warmoebulia qveynis ekonomikur

teritoriaze (mocemuli qveynis administraciulad marTvadi teritoria,

sadac adamianebi, saqoneli da fuli Tavisuflad gadaadgildeba); mTliani

niSnavs, rom mSp-is gaangariSebisas misi Rirebulebidan ar gamoiricxeba

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba. principSi, warmoebis Sedegebis zusti

gazomvisaTvis (ra mizniTac gaiangariSeba sakuTriv mSp) unda gamoiricxos

ara mxolod Sualeduri moxmareba, aramed ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebac,

romelic ekonomikuri TvalsazrisiT Sualeduri anu sawarmoo moxmarebis

analogiuria. Tumca, saqarTvelos da sxva mravali qveynis praqtikaSi

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSeba im meTodiT, rogorc es

gaTvaliswinebulia eas-Si (anu ZiriTadi kapitalis Sefaseba aRdgeniTi

Rirebulebis mixedviT), sakmaod Znelia, vinaidan Cvens xelT arsebuli

sabuRaltro aRricxvis monacemebi ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze

(amortizaciaze) ar Seesabameba eas-is koncefcias; saxeldobr, sabuRaltro

aRricxvaSi ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis gaangariSeba xdeba

Tavdapirveli da ara aRdgeniTi RirebulebiT, rogorc amas moiTxovs eas-i.

garda amisa, amortizaciis gaangariSeba sabuRaltro aRricxvaSi SeiZleba

daCqarebuli amortizaciis safuZvelze, rac eas-Si miuRebelia.

38

amgvarad, eas-is moTxovnebis Sesabamisad ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebaze

monacemebis miRebis SemTxvevaSi (ZiriTadi kapitalis amortizaciis

gaangariSeba aRdgeniTi Rirebulebis bazaze) SesaZlebeli iqneboda

ekonomikuri warmoebis Sedegebis ufro zusti maCveneblis _ wminda Sida

produqtis (wSp) gaangariSeba, rac gaTvaliswinebulia eas-is sqemiT, Tumca

praqtikuli siZneleebis gamo statistikosebi iZulebulni arian gamoiyenon

mSp.

saqarTvelos eas-is praqtikaSi ekonomikuri operaciebi aRiricxeba maTi

ganxorcielebis momentisaTvis arsebul mimdinare sabazro fasebSi daricxvis meTodiT. produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) gamoSvebis

Sefaseba xdeba sabaziso fasebSi, Sualeduri moxmarebis ki _ myidvelis

fasebSi. sabaziso fasi aris Tanxa, romelsac mwarmoebeli iRebs

warmoebuli produqciis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis) sanacvlod (sakompensaciod), misi warmoebis an gayidvis gamo yvela saxis gadasaxadis

gamoklebiT da subsidiis damatebiT. myidvelis fasi aris Tanxa, romelsac ixdis myidveli mocemul drosa da adgilze produqciis (saqonlis da momsaxurebis) miwodebis sanacvlod. amisaTvis, sabaziso fass emateba

mTliani danaricxebi, romelic moicavs: savaWro-satransporto fasnamatebs

da gadasaxadebs produqciaze (dRg, aqcizi da sabaJo gadasaxadebs)

subsidiebis gareSe.

2. mSp-is gaangariSebis meTodebi

rogorc cnobilia, mSp aris drois garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi

mocemuli qveynis ekonomikur teritoriaze warmoebuli saboloo

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis sabazro fasebiT gamoxatuli mTliani

Rirebuleba.

sawarmos, dargisa da seqtoris doneze mSp-s Seesabameba maCvenebeli

mTliani damatebuli Rirebuleba (mdR).

mSp-Si Sedis agreTve ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba (Cvens praqtikaSi

amortizacia). miuxedavad imisa, rom wminda maCveneblebis gamoTvla Zalian

mniSvnelovania, ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gazomva aRdgeniTi

Rirebulebis bazaze dReisaTvis gaZnelebulia, amitom prioriteti eniWeba

mTliani maCveneblebis gamoTvlas.

sagareo vaWrobis gaTvaliswinebiT, mSp SeiZleba gaviangariSoT

kvlavwarmoebis ciklis yovel stadiaze Sesabamisi meTodebis daxmarebiT:

warmoebis

Semosavlebis (ganawilebi )

39

saboloo gamoyenebis (danaxarjebis)

warmoebis meTodiT mSp-is gaangariSeba sxvadasxva xerxiT aris

SesaZlebeli:

1. mSp sabazro fasebSi = saqonlisa da momsaxurebis mTliani

gamoSveba sabaziso fasebSi _ Sualeduri moxmarebis saerTo Rirebuleba +

gadasaxadebi produqciaze – subsidiebi produqciaze.

cxrili 1. mSp-is gaangariSeba warmoebis meTodiT, saqarTvelo, 2014-15ww.

(mimdinare fasebSi; mln lari) 2014 2015

mTliani gamoSveba sabaziso fasebSi 43,927.3 48,250.5

(-) Sualeduri moxmareba 18,831.6 20,782.0

damatebuli Rirebuleba sabaziso fasebSi 25,095.7 27,468.4

(+) gadasaxadebi produqciaze 4,203.6 4,445.4

(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 148.8 158.3

mSp sabazro fasebSi 29,150.5 31,755.6

2. mSp sabazro fasebSi = mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebebis (mdR)

jams saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT sabazro fasebSi, e.i is moicavs wminda

gadasaxadebs produqciaze (gadasaxadebi _ subsidiebi). amasTan, mdR

saqmianobis saxeebis (dargebis) mixedviT gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba

mTlian gamoSvebasa da Sualedur moxmarebas Soris.

cxrili 2. mSp-is gaangariSeba warmoebis meTodiT (45 saqmianobis saxis

damatebuli Rirebulebebis Sejamebis gziT)

2014 2015

marcvlovani kulturebisa da sxva kulturebis moyvana, romlebic ar Sedian sxva kategoriebSi

350,8 338,5

xilis, kaklis, sasmelebisa da sunel-saneleblebis warmoebisaTvis saWiro kulturebis moyvana

476,3 499,4

bostneulis moyvana, specializebuli mebaReoba da sanerge produqciis warmoeba

287,6 282,7

mecxoveleoba 1 018,1 1 158,9

sasoflo sameurneo momsaxureba 106,0 127,7

metyeveoba da xe-tyis damzadeba 77,5 88,4

TevzWera, meTevzeoba 11,8 11,9

samTomopovebiTi mrewveloba 204,3 300,1

40

safqveli mrewvelobis produqtebis warmoeba; mza sakvebis warmoeba pirutyvisaTvis

73,4 78,5

puris, orcxobilis, namcxvrisa da comeuli sakonditro nawarmis warmoeba

103,6 157,0

kvebis sxva produqtebis warmoeba 337,3 373,6

mineraluri wylebisa da ualkoholo sasmelebis warmoeba

275,3 278,1

alkoholiani sasmelebis warmoeba 327,7 226,8

Tambaqos nawarmis warmoeba 16,7 17,6

msubuqi, celuloza-qaRaldis, merqnis mrewveloba, sagamomcemlo saqme

294,8 364,3

navTobproduqtebis, qimiuri, plastmasebis, mineraluri da saSeni masalebis warmoeba

547,1 638,4

metalurgiuli produqciisa da liTonis mza nakeTobebis warmoeba

499,1 447,0

manqanebis, eleqtro, satransporto mowyobilobebisa da sxva damamuSavebeli warmoeba

189,6 172,5

eleqtroenergiis, airisa da wylis warmoeba da ganawileba 712,0 847,7

produqciis gadamuSaveba SinameurneobebSi 662,9 713,8

nagebobaTa saerTo mSenebloba da samoqalaqo-sainJinro samuSaoebi

1 153,1 1 424,2

avtostradebis, gzebis, aerodromebisa da sportuli nagebobebis mSenebloba

316,3 333,0

sxva samSeneblo samuSaoebi 303,0 400,6

sacalo vaWroba avtomobilebisa da maTi nawilebiT vaWrobis CaTvliT

2 295,1 2 374,4

sabiTumo da sakomisio vaWroba, avtomobilebiTa da motociklebiT vaWrobis garda

1 441,7 1 589,1

avtomobilebis, sayofacxovrebo saqonlisa da piradi moxmarebis sagnebis remonti da teqnikuri momsaxureba

413,8 383,4

sawvavis sacalo gayidva Sidawvis Zraviani satransporto saSualebebisaTvis

235,0 241,8

sastumroebisa da kempingebis momsaxureba 222,5 284,4

restornebis, barebis, sasadiloebis momsaxureba da mza sakvebis miwodeba

373,2 409,5

sarkinigzo transporti 71,0 76,2

sxva saxmeleTo transporti da sazRvao da kabotaJuri wylis transporti

319,4 306,1

milsadenebiT transportireba 293,0 320,4

sahaero transporti 55,4 61,7

tvirTis satransporto damuSaveba da Senaxva 290,4 323,6

sxva damxmare satransporto saqmianoba 354,5 389,5

samogzauro biuroebisa da turistuli agentebis saqmianoba; turistebisaTvis daxmarebis aRmoCena

545,3 704,2

kavSirgabmuloba 692,9 714,8

safinanso saqmianoba 863,8 1 044,5

operaciebi uZravi qonebiT, ijara da momxmareblisaTvis momsaxurebis gaweva

1 517,8 1 784,6

41

saxelmwifos mmarTveloba 2 478,9 2 546,2

ganaTleba 1 276,1 1 338,6

janmrTelobis dacva da socialuri daxmareba 1 514,9 1 647,5

sxva komunaluri, socialuri da personaluri momsaxurebis gaweva

1 032,4 1 199,9

sakuTari sacxovrisis gamoyenebis pirobiTi renta 841,0 887,8

Sinamomsaxureba 28,4 30,3

finansuri Suamavlobis momsaxurebis arapirdapiri Sefaseba

-405,1 -471,1

mSp sabaziso fasebSi 25 095,7

27 468,4

(+) gadasaxadebi produqciaze 4 203,6 4 445,4

(-) subsidiebi produqciaze 148,8 158,3

mSp sabazro fasebSi 29 150,5

31 755,6

* dazustebuli monacemebi gamoqveyndeba 2017 wlis 15 noembers.

3. mSp sabazro fasebSi = ekonomikis seqtorebSi1 mdR-ebis jami

(sabazro fasebSi). saqarTveloSi am meTodiT mSp ar iangariSeba, radgan ar

gvaqvs monacemebi ekonomikis yvela seqtoris mixedviT.

Semosavlebis (ganawilebis) meTodi gamoiyeneba mSp-is ganawilebis

stadiaze. es aris pirveladi Semosavlebis jami, romelic rezidenti

ekonomikuri erTeulebis mier nawildeba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

mwarmoebelTa Soris: daqiravebul momuSaveTa Sromis anazRaurebas +

wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze + mTliani saoperacio mogeba

+ mTliani Sereuli Semosavlebi.

cxrili 3. mSp-is gaangariSeba Semosavlebis meTodiT, saqarTvelo, 2014-15 ww.

(mimdinare fasebSi, mln. lari) 202014 2015

Sromis anazRaureba 8,590.3 9,189.8

xelfasebi 8,590.3 9,189.8

socialuri anaricxebi 0.0 0.0

gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze 4,448.4 4,778.8

(-) subsidiebi 148.8 158.3

mTliani saoperacio mogeba 10,980.2 12,222.2

mTliani Sereuli Semosavali 5,280.4 5,723.0

mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 29,150.5 31,755.6

1 eas-Si ekonomika dayofilia 6 seqtorad: arafinansuri, finansuri, samTavrobo, Sinameurneobebis, Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli organizaciebi(Smako) da “danarCeni msoflio”.

42

saboloo gamoyenebis (danaxarjebis) meTodiT mSp gaiangariSeba rogorc

saboloo moxmarebisa da mTliani dazogvis jami eqsport-importis saldos

gaTvaliswinebiT.

cxrili 4. mSp-is gaangariSeba saboloo gamoyenebis meTodiT, saqarTvelo,

2014-15ww.

(mimdinare fasebSi, mln. lari) 2014 2015

xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze 25,570.7 28,456.9

Sinameurneobebi 20,117.4 21,518.2

Smako (Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli organizaciebi)

587.7 659.5

saxelmwifo marTvis organoebi 4,865.6 6,279.2

individualuri saqoneli da momsaxureba 1,544.1 2,882.0

koleqtiuri momsaxureba 3,321.5 3,397.2

(+) mTliani kapitalis formireba 8,688.9 9,595.8

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani formireba 7,534.7 9,032.0

maragebis cvlileba 1,154.1 563.8

faseulobis SeZena, wminda .. ..

(+) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsporti 12,518.3 14,274.6

saqonlis eqsporti 7,192.4 7,113.6

momsaxurebis eqsporti 5,325.8 7,161.0

(-) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis importi 17,627.3 20,571.7

saqonlis importi 14,668.9 16,780.5

momsaxurebis importi 2,958.5 3,791.2

(=) mTliani Sida produqti sabazro fasebSi 29,150.5 31,755.6

mSp-is saboloo gamoyeneba iyofa Semdeg muxlebad: Sinameurneobebis,

Smakoebisa da saxelmwifo marTvis organoebis saboloo moxmareba,

kapitalis mTliani dagroveba (ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani formireba,

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba da faseulobebis wminda

SeZena kapitaldabandebebi) da saqonlisa da momsaxurebis eqsport-

importis saldo.

3. mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi

43

makroekonomikur cxrilebSi Zalian cota adgili eTmoba mimdinare fasebSi

asaxul (nominalur) mSp-s. rogorc wesi, ZiriTadi aqcentebi keTdeba

realur mSp-sa da mis deflatorze. Tumca, mimdinare fasebSi asaxuli mSp

mravali mniSvnelovani agregatisaTvis Sesadar bazad (mniSvnelad)

gamoiyeneba _ magaliTad, biujetis deficitTan, eqsport-importis

saldosTan, erovnul dazogvasTan da a.S. koeficientebi, romlebic

mimdinare fasebSi gamosaxuli mricxvelisa da mniSvnelis gayofis Sedegad

miiReba, saerTaSoriso SedarebebisTvis gamoiyeneba, radgan sxva

SemTxvevaSi isini damokidebuli iqneba qveynis sidideze.

cxrili 5. mSp-is dinamika mimdinare da mudmiv fasebSi, mSp deflatori

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

mSp mimdinare fasebSi, mln. lari 20743.4 24344.0 26167.3 26847.4 29150.5 31755.6

mSp 2010 wlis mudmiv fasebSi, mln.

lari 20743.4 22241.4 23653.8 24454.9 25585.6 26322.5

mSp-is realuri zrda, procentuli

cvlileba 6.2 7.2 6.4 3.4 4.6 2.9

mSp deflatori, procentuli

cvlileba 8.6 9.5 1.0 -0.8 3.8 5.9

rogorc wesi, mSp-is fizikuri moculobis (realuri mSp-is) dinamikis

SeswavlisaTvis aucilebelia fasebis faqtoris eliminireba. amisaTvis mSp-

s gadaafaseben mudmiv fasebSi, anu mas gamosaxaven sabazisod miCneul

romelime mimdinare fasSi. am mizniT mSp-is deflators iyeneben. mSp-is

mimdinare Rirebulebis fardobiT deflatorze miiReba mSp-is fizikuri

moculobis indeqsi, romelic gamosaxavs mSp-is moculobis cvlilebas

erTsa da imave mudmiv fasSi. am mizniT SesaZlebelia agreTve

samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsis(sfi) gamoyenebac, Tumca am indeqsiT

ZiriTadad inflacias angariSoben. sfi yovelTviurad iangariSeba da

mosaxleobis interesis sferoSi ufro xSirad xvdeba, radgan saboloo

moxmarebas ukavSirdeba. erTi mxriv, deflatori mocvis xarisxiT ufro

srulia, vidre sfi, radgan is warmoebis saSualebebsac moicavs; Tumca,

meore mxriv, sfi-ze naklebad srulia, radgan mxolod Sida inflacias

moicavs da masSi pirdapir ar gaiTvaliswineba importis fasebis cvlileba.

aRsaniSnavia is faqtic, rom qveynebis mcire gamonaklisis garda, romlebic

erovnul angariSebs yovelTviurad angariSoben, mSp-is deflatori

ZiriTadad kvartalurad gaiangariSeba. rogorc me-5 cxrilidan Cans,

saqarTveloSi amJamad sabazisod miCneulia 2010 wlis fasebi.

SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTveloSi realuri mSp-is matebis tempebi

sakmaod arastabiluria, rac savsebiT damaxasiaTebelia ganviTarebadi

44

ekonomikebis qveynebisaTvis, Tumca aRniSnulis gamo ar iqmneba mimzidveli

garemo ucxouri investiciebis ganxorcielebisaTvis.

mSp-is gadaangariSeba mudmiv fasebSi warmoebisa da saboloo moxmarebis

stadiebze xdeba. gansxvaveba maT Soris minimaluri unda iyos.

statistikis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba mSp-is gadaangariSebis ramdenime

meTodi:

1. pirdapiri gadaangariSebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

naturalur gamosaxulebaSi amravleben mis sabaziso fasze da miiReba

mimdinare periodis gamoSvebis moculoba mudmiv fasebSi:

pq o1 = q1 po ,

es meTodi gamoiyeneba maSin, Tu produqcia sakmaod erTgvarovania.

2. deflirebis meTodi

warmoebuli an moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenobas

mimdinare fasebSi yofen Sesabamis fasebis indeqsze (paaSes indeqsi).

Secdomebis Tavidan acilebis mizniT deflireba mimdinareobs

maqsimalurad detalizebul doneze.

1011 : qpqp p

inflireba deflirebis sapirispiroa da gulisxmobs produqciis mimdinare

moculobis gamosaxvas mimdinare fasebSi.

3. eqstrapolaciis meTodi

sabaziso periodis produqciis moculoba Sesadar fasebSi mravldeba

produqciis fizikuri moculobis indeqsze:

qpoo I q= qp

o 1 ,

Tu ara gvaqvs monacemebi naturalur sidideebSi gamosaxuli produqciis

moculobis Sesaxeb, eqstrapolaciis meTodis gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi

fizikuri moculobis indeqsi icvleba dasaqmebulTa ricxovnobis

indeqsiT, an Sesabamisi naturaluri maCveneblis indeqsiT (moswavleTa

raodenoba, pacientebis ricxvi, gamomuSavebuli dro da a.S.).

4. ormagi deflirebis meTodi

mSp-is moculobis Sefaseba mudmiv fasebSi SesaZlebelia saqmianobis

saxeebis mixedviT warmoebuli mTliani damatebuli Rirebulebis (mudmiv

45

fasebSi) Sejamebis saSualebiT. am SemTxvevaSi SeiZleba gamoviyenoT

ormagi deflatirebis meTodi, romlis arsi imaSi mdgomareobs, rom cal-

calke gadaiTvlian mTlian gamoSvebas da Sualedur moxmarebas mudmiv

fasebSi da Semdeg akleben erTmaneTs.

mSp-is mudmiv fasebSi gadayvana saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT xdeba mxolod

warmoebis meTodiT gaangariSebuli maCveneblebis mixedviT ormagi

deflirebis gziT. es xorcieldeba fasebis Sesabamisi indeqsebis

meSveobiT, saqmianobis saxeebis mixedviT mTliani gamoSvebisa da

Sualeduri moxmarebis cal-calke deflirebiT da Semdeg maTi sxvaobis

gamoTvliT.

4. erovnuli Semosavali

eas-is meore mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia erovnuli Semosavali, romelic

SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes rogorc ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis

gaTvaliswinebiT, romlis Sedegad miiReba mTliani erovnuli Semosavali

(meS), ise ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gamoklebiT _ wminda erovnuli

Semosavali (weS).

erovnuli Semosavali _ warmoadgens mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis

(fizikuri da iuridiuli pirebi, romlebic xangrZlivad, 1 welze meti xnis

ganmavlobaSi cxovroben an saqmianoben mocemul ekonomikur teritoriaze)

mier miRebuli pirveladi Semosavlebis (Sromis anazRaureba, mogeba,

Sereuli Semosavali, Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan, gadasaxadebi warmoebasa

da importze) jams.

erovnuli Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rezidentebis mier

sazRvargareTidan miRebuli da ararezidentebisaTvis sazRvargareT

gadacemuli pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT. amgvarad, erovnuli

Semosavali gansxvavdeba Sida produqtisagan rogorc Sinaarsobrivad,

aseve raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT. Sinaarsobrivi TvalsazrisiT am or

maCvenebels Soris gansxvaveba imaSi mdgomareobs, rom Sida produqti

(mTliani an wminda) axasiaTebs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis nakadebs

(saboloos), xolo erovnuli Semosavali – Semosavlebis nakadebs

(pirvelads). raodenobrivi TvalsazrisiT, rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, isini

gansxvavdebian sazRvargareTidan miRebuli (sazRvargareT gadacemuli)

pirveladi Semosavlebis saldos sididiT.

makroekonomikuri parametrebis Sefasebisas erTmaneTisgan unda

ganvasxvaoT terminebi „Sida“ da „erovnuli“. mTliani erovnuli

Semosavali, romelsac adre mTliani erovnuli produqtis saxelwodebiT

icnobdnen (da dResac Cveulebis gamo zogjer ase iyeneben) zomavs

46

rezidentebis mTlian Semosavals, amrigad, mSp-is gansazRvraSi amosavali

kategoria qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriaa, xolo meS-Si ki – rezidentoba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom did qveynebSi gansxvaveba mSp-sa da meS-s Soris didi ar

aris (mag. germania 1.87%, 2003 wels ki meS meti iyo mSp-ze 0.7%-iT), magram

didia patara qveynebisTvis, rogoricaa mag. luqsemburgi, romelic Tavisi

mSp-is did nawils xelfasisa da sxva pirveladi Semosavlebis saxiT uxdis

„danarCen msoflios“. pirvelad SemosavlebSi Sedis agreTve luqsemburgSi

investirebuli Tanxebidan miRebuli sargebeli. miuxedavad imisa, rom

luqsemburgi mniSvnelovan sargebels iRebs garedanac, is 15.3%-iT naklebia

gacemul Semosavlebze. luqsemburgis msgavsad, irlandiac maRal

dividendebs uxdis danarCen msoflios. irlandiaSi mravladaa amerikuli

multinacionaluri firmebis mSobel kompaniebi, romlebic nawilobriv

gadasaxadebis gamo saqmianoben irlandiaSi. Sedegad, irlandiis meS 17.1%-

iT naklebia mSp-ze da es Tanafardobac 2003 welTan SedarebiT TiTqmis

1%-iT aris gazrdili. luqsemburgsa da irlandiaSi meS naklebia mSp-ze,

xolo Sveicariasa da germaniaSi sapirispiro situaciaa. 2003 wlidan

dawyebuli, 2008 wlis garda, Sveicariis meS yovelTvis aWarbebda mSp-s.

germaniaSi meS-is gadameteba mSp-ze 2004 wlidan daiwyo da dRemde

grZeldeba.

rac Seexeba saqarTvelos, 2003-2007 wlebSi meS sWarbobda mSp-s, 2008

wlidan ki daiwyo uku procesi, romelic dRemde grZeldeba.

naxazze 1. naTlad Cans es procesi. marTalia, did ryevebs am periodSi

adgili ar hqonia, magram aSkaraa, rom Semosavlebis gadinebis procesi

ukve tendenciis saxes iRebs (nax.1), rac imaSi gamoixateba, rom 2010

wlisaTvis pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxdam danarCeni msofliosTvis 1.6-

jer gadaaWarba Semosavlebis miRebas. Tu aseTi tempebiT gagrZeldeba es

procesi, 2020 wlisaTvis gadaxdili Semosavlebi 2-jer gadaaWarbebs

miRebuls da mSp-s zrdadi Tanafardoba meS-Tan SedarebiT Seuqcevad

xasiaTs miiRebs.

naxazi 1. sazRvargareTidan miRebuli da sazRvargareT gadaxdili pirveladi

Semosavlebis dinamika saqarTveloSi 2003-14ww.

47

kvlav davubrundeT mTlian da wminda makroekonomikur maCveneblebs.

warmoebis procesis ganxorcielebisaTvis saWiro faqtorebia: samuSao

Zala, saqoneli da momsaxureba (Sualeduri moxmareba) da kapitali

(manqana-mowyobilobebi). es faqtorebi Seadgens danaxarjebs. wminda

makroekonomikuri maCveneblebis misaRebad aucilebelia mTliani

damatebuli Rirebulebis gaangariSebidan gamovricxoT ZiriTadi

kapitalis (Senobebi, nagebobebi, Carxebi, danadgarebi, satransporto

saSualebebi, muSa da produqtuli pirutyvi da sxva) moxmareba. Sedegad

miviRebT wminda damatebul Rirebulebas. wminda Sida produqti, wSp = ∑

wminda damatebuli Rirebulebebi. wSp da weS, miuxedavad imisa, rom ufro

iSviaTad gamoiyeneba, vidre mSp da meS, ufro ukeT asaxaven warmoebisa da

Semosavlebis masStabebs, Tumca zemoT motanili mizezebis gamo maTi

gamoyeneba SezRudulia. es mizezebi SeiZleba orad davajgufoT: pirveli,

ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebis gaangariSebis meTodebi rTulia da

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi gansxvavebulia, rac Sesadarisobis problemebs qmnis

da meore, qveynebis ranJirebisas an zrdis tempebis analizis dros mSp-sa

da wSp-s Soris gansxvavebebi didi ar aris da es daskvnebze gavlenas ver

moaxdens. cxrilSi motanilia dinamikaSi weS-is gaangariSebis etapebi

saqarTvelos erovnuli angariSebis meTodologiis mixedviT:

cxrili 6. wminda erovnuli Semosavlis gaangariSeba, saqarTvelo, 2010-2015 ww.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

mTliani erovnuli Semosavali 20102.8 23631.7 25925.6 26340.7 28882.5 30884.8

(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba 2126.8 2660.8 2797.0 2809.5 3012.0 3273.5

(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali 17976.0 20970.9 23128.6 23531.2 25870.6 27611.3

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

(-) რ

ო

რ

ო ო

(+) რ

ო

რ

ო ო

48

5. ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba da Sereuli

Semosavlebi

ekonomikis mTliani saoperacio mogeba (emsg) yvela dargisa an seqtoris

mogebaTa jamis tolia. es aris damatebuli Rirebulebis is nawili,

romelic rCeba mwarmoebels xarjebis (Sromis anazRaureba, gadasaxadebi

warmoebasa da importze) dafarvis Semdeg. am muxlis saSualebiT izomeba

warmoebis mogeba (an zarali) sakuTrebidan miRebuli Semosavlebis

gaTvaliswinebamde. mTliani saoperacio mogebis misaRebad mSp-s akldeba

Sromis anazRaureba da wminda gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze

ekonomikis wminda saoperacio mogeba (ewsm) eas-Si aris makroekonomikuri

mogebis maCvenebeli, romelic gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba ekonomikis

mTlian mogebasa da ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmarebas Soris.

Sinameurneobebis arakorporirebuli sawarmoebisaTvis, sadac SeiZleba

adgili hqondes aunazRaurebel Sromas, mogeba icvleba Sereuli

SemosavlebiT, radgan es muxli Seicavs rogorc mewarmis Semosavlebs, ise

xarjebs.

cxrili 7. mTliani da wminda saoperacio mogebisa da Sereuli Semosavlebis

dinamika saqarTveloSi, 2010-2015ww.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ო რ ო ო 8720.97 9717.20 9873.01 9741.80 10980.15 12222.24

რ ო 3866.91 4559.40 5038.57 5265.22 5280.44 5723.03

ო რ ო ო , 6813.21 7294.35 7320.50 7212.71 8266.30 9259.09

(-) რ

რ ო ორ 219.03 237.92 244.47 280.43 298.12 310.37

რ ო , 3647.88 4321.48 4794.11 4984.79 4982.32 5412.66

* ო ო 2017 15 ო რ .

6. gankargvadi Semosavali

Semosavlebis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis Sedegad warmoiqmneba

erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (mTliani _ megS, an wminda _ wegS),

romelic gansxvavdeba erovnuli Semosavlisagan sazRvargareTidan

miRebuli da sazRvargareT gadacemuli mimdinare transfertebis saldoTi.

aseT transfertebs miekuTvneba: humanitaruli daxmareba, gadasaxadebi

49

Semosavlebze, saCuqrebi sazRvargareT mudmivad mcxovrebi naTesavebisagan

da sxv.

cxrili 8. wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavlis gaangariSebis

meTodologia saqarTveloSi

2014 2015

რო 29150.5 31755.6

(+) რ ო რ ო ო 1738.0 1893.9

(-) რ ო რ ო ო 2005.9 2764.6

(=) რო ო 28882.5 30884.8

(-) ძ რ ო რ 3012.0 3273.5

(=) რო ო 25870.6 27611.3

(+) რ რ რ რ ო ო 2766.3 3682.6

(-) რ რ რ რ ო ო 240.4 229.4

(=) რო რ ო 28396.4 31064.5

mTliani erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali (megS) aris mSp sabazro

fasebSi wminda saldo erovnul ekonomikasa da danarCen msoflios

Soris Semdegi elementebis mixedviT: gadasaxadebi warmoebasa da importze.

subsidiebi. Sromis anazRaureba. Semosavlebi sakuTrebidan da samewarmeo

saqmianobidan. dazRvevis operaciebi da sxva mimdinare transfertebi.

megS _ es aris realuri Semosavlebis sazomi. romelic gamoiyeneba

rogorc saboloo moxmarebisaTvis. ise dazogvisaTvis. e. i. es aris yvela

Semosavlis wyaro. romelic aucilebelia ekonomikis Semdgomi

ganviTarebisa da erovnuli simdidris zrdisaTvis.

7. erovnuli danazogi

erovnuli saboloo moxmareba _ es aris Sinameurneobebis. saxelmwifo

marTvis organoebisa da Sinameurneobebis momsaxure arakomerciuli

organizaciebis(Smako) xarjebi saboloo moxmarebaze.

erovnuli danazogi _ es aris gankargvadi Semosavlis is nawili. romelic

ar aris daxarjuli saboloo moxmarebaze da SeiZleba mimarTul iqnes

dagrovebis dafinansebisaTvis.

50

cxrili 9. wminda danazogis, kapitalis mTliani dagrovebisa da wminda

dakrediteba/sesxebis gaangariSebis meTodologia

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

რო რ

ო

19932.6 23184.8 25454.4 25969.2 28396.4 31064.5

(-) ო ოო ო რ 19 960.8 22 487.3 23 733.2 23 671.8 25 570.7 27871.9

(=) ო -28.2 697.5 1 721.2 2 297.5 2 825.7 3192.5

(+) რ რ რ

რ ო ო

368.7 260.5 221.3 224.0 203.9 147.8

(-) რ რ რ

რ

ო ო

0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.6

(=)

რ

ო რ

რ რ

340.3 957.7 1 941.8 2 520.5 3 029.0 3339.8

(-) ორ რ 4 477.7 6 368.0 7 575.4 6 652.9 8 688.9 10180.8

(+) ძ რ

ო რ

2 126.8 2 660.8 2 797.0 2 809.5 3 012.0 3273.5

(-) რ რ ო რ რ

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(=) რ (+).

(-)

-2 010.6 -2 749.6 -2 836.6 -1 322.9 -2 647.9 -3567.5

danazogi da kapitaluri transfertebi erTobliobaSi qmnian erovnuli

dafinansebis wyaroebs investiciebisaTvis, romlebic Sedgeba Semdegi

elementebisagan:

1. ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba.

2. materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba.

3. faseulobebis wminda SeZena.

4. arawarmoebuli aqtivebis wminda SeZena (miwa, sasargeblo

wiaRiseulis sabadoebi, patentebi, saavtoro uflebebi da sxva).P

am CamonaTvalis pirveli sami elementi qmnis mTlian dagrovebas.

mTliani dagroveba moicavs sawarmoo aqtivebis wminda SeZenas (SeZenas

minus gasvla) ZiriTadi kapitalis, sabrunavi kapitalisa da faseulobebis

dagrovebis mizniT.

ZiriTadi kapitalis mTliani dagroveba warmoadgens rezidenti

erTeulebis mier ganxorcielebul dabandebebs Semdegi mimarTulebebiT:

ZiriTadi kapitalis SeZena;

danaxarjebi arawarmoebuli aqtivebis gaumjobesebaze;

51

arawarmoebul aqtivebze sakuTrebis uflebis gadacemasTan

dakavSirebuli danaxarjebi.

materialuri sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis cvlileba moicavs:

nedleuls da masalebs, daumTavrebel warmoebas, mza produqciasa da

saqonels xelaxali gadayidvisTvis, samxedro daniSnulebis materialur

sabrunav saSualebebs.

8. wminda dakrediteba da wminda sesxeba

eas-is Semdegi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia wminda dakrediteba/wminda

sesxeba.

wminda dakrediteba (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis finansuri aqtivebis gadametebaa mocemuli qveynis

rezidentebis finansuri valdebulebebis jamze.

wminda sesxeba (mTlianad ekonomikisaTvis) _ es kategoria wminda

dakreditebis simetriulia. is uCvenebs mocemuli qveynis rezidentebis mier

sazRvargareTidan miRebuli resursebis moculobas.

eas-is ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris urTierTkavSiri

SeiZleba gamovsaxoT Semdegi sqemiT:

sqema 1. urTierTkavSiri ZiriTad makroekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris

mTliani Sida produqti

(+) pirveladi Semosavlebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) pirveladi Semosavlebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) mTliani erovnuli Semosavali

(-) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba

(=) wminda erovnuli Semosavali

(+) mimdinare transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) mimdinare transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavali

(-) saboloo moxmareba

(=) wminda danazogi

(+) kapitaluri transfertebis miReba danarCeni msofliodan

(-) kapitaluri transfertebis gadaxda danarCeni msofliosaTvis

(=) kapitalis wminda Rirebulebis cvlileba danazogebisa da

kapitaluri transfertebis Sedegad

(-) mTliani kapitalis formireba

(+) ZiriTadi kapitalis moxmareba

(-) arawarmoebuli arafinansuri aqtivebis wminda Sesyidva

(-) statistikuri gansxvaveba

(=) wminda dakrediteba (+) ∕ wminda sesxeba(-)

52

Tema 4

sabazro koniunqturis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

1. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

2. koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi

3. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema, arsi da

gaangariSebis meTodikasabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi

4. riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba

5. bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da proporciulobis

gansazRvra

6. bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis tendenciaTa analizi

7. moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis statistikuri

meTodebi

8. sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

1. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis sagani da amocanebi

sabazro koniunqtura aris is konkretuli ekonomikuri situacia,

romelic Seqmnilia bazarze mocemuli momentisaTvis an drois SezRudul

monakveTSi. is yalibdeba socialur-ekonomikuri, demografiuli, bunebrivi,

organizaciuli, sazogadoebriv-politikuri da agreTve SemTxveviT

faqtorTa kompleqsis gavleniT, amdenad sabazro koniunqtura warmoadgens

rTul da swrafad cvalebad movlenas.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis Seswavlis sagans warmoadgens

is masobrivi procesebi da movlenebi, romelic gansazRvravs konkretul

sabazro situacias da eqvemdebareba raodenobriv da xarisxobriv

Sefasebas.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis (koniunqturuli statistikis) mniSvnelovani Taviseburebaa is, rom igi operatiulia da farTod iyenebs xarisxobriv, atributul da alternatiul Sefasebebs, aRwerilobiTi

xasiaTis mimoxilvas, logikur daskvnebs, winaswari da prognozuli xasiaTis informacias, saeqsperto Sefasebebs, ganviTarebis scenarebs, specialur sabazro gamokvlevebis masalebs da sxvadasxva gziT mopovebul

informacias.

yovelive aRniSnuli warmatebiT SeiZleba iqnes gamoyenebuli

statistikur gaangariSebebSi. amdenad, sabazro koniunqturis statistika

konkurentunarianobis amRlebisa da konkurentuli brZolis mZlavr

saSualebad iTvleba, ris gamoc saSualo da msxvil firmebSi

koniunqturis qvedanayofi kargad uTavsdeba statistikisa da marketingis

samsaxurebs da praqtikulad dasaSvebia maTi erT samsaxurSi

(ganyofilebaSi) funqcionireba.

53

amasTan erTad, miRebulia, rom sabazro koniunqturas sami

principulad gansxvavebuli niSani gaaCnia. esenia: variantuloba,

cikluroba da dinamikuroba. rogorc cnobilia, bazars stiqiurobisaken

mniSvnelovani midrekileba aqvs. amitomacaa, rom mas axasiaTebs meryeoba,

romelic rogorc SemTxveviTi, ise mudmivi xasiaTisaa. is aris cikluri da

sezonuri, agreTve Zalze moqnili, mgrZnobiared reagirebs rogorc

socialur-ekonomikuri xasiaTis faqtorebis nebismier cvlilebebze, ise

politikuri da fsiqologiuri tipis faqtorebze. ufro metic, igi

mgrZnobiarea sxvadasxva Worebis mimarTac.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri Seswavla SeiZleba moxdes

rogorc integrirebuli da diferencirebuli, ise lokaluri bazrebis

mixedviT, agreTve mTeli qveynisa da misi calkeuli regionis, aseve

mTlianad sasaqonlo masisa (momsaxurebis masis) da calkeuli sasaqonlo

bazris mixedviT. amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris koniunqtura qveynis ekonomikuri

koniunqturisnawils warmoadgens da mWidrodaa dakavSirebuli

investiciebis, fasiani qaRaldebisa da Sromis bazrebTan. aRsaniSnavia

isic, rom calkeul bazarze Seqmnili situacia gavlenas axdens sxva

danarCeni bazrebis situaciis formirebasa da mTlianad ekonomikur

koniunqturaze.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikur analizs, operatiulTan erTad,

strategiuli mniSvneloba aqvs. misi mizania gamoavlinos da modelireba

gaukeTos sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis kanonzomierebas. es aucilebelia

ara marto bazarze Seqmnili situaciis gasarkvevad, aramed imisTvisac,

rom sworad ganisazRvros bazris ganviTarebis mimarTulebebi momavalSi.

amrigad, operatiuli da strategiuli miznebis erToblioba ayalibebs sabazro koniunqturis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs, romlebic aSuqeben sabazro situaciis sxvadasxva mxareebs da elementebs:

koniunqturuli informaciis mopoveba da damuSaveba;

damuSavebuli informaciis safuZvelze bazris mdgomareobis

integrirebuli da diferencirebuli Sefaseba;

sabazro situaciis tipologia da bazris mdgomareobis xarisxobrivi

gradacia;

bazris masStabis (moculobis) daxasiaTeba;

bazarze damyarebuli ZiriTadi proporciebis Sefaseba da analizi;

bazris ganviTarebis tendenciebisa da misi dinamikuri mdgradobis

gamovlena, analizi da prognozireba;

bazris ganviTarebis meryeobis, sezonurobisa da ciklurobis

analzi;

saqmiani aqtiurobis Sefaseba da analizi;

komerciuli (sabazro) riskis Sefaseba;

54

bazris monopolizaciis donisa da konkurenciis intensiurobis

daxasiaTeba.

sabazro koniunqturis an bazris mdgomareobis statistikuri

Seswavlis aRniSnuli amocanebis praqtikuli gadawyveta SeiZleba moxdes or etapad.

pirvel etapze analizdeba sabazro koniunqtura, romlis drosac

unda daxasiaTdes bazris masStabebi da tipologia, misi mTavari

proporciebi, ZiriTadi parametrebis cvlilebis veqtori da siCqare,

ganviTarebis mdgradobis done.

meore etapze xorcieldeba ufro maRali donis analizi, romlis

procesSic dgindeba is mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebi da pirobebi, romelic

gansazRvravs sabazro situacias. yovelive amis safuZvelze xdeba sabazro

koniunqturis da bazris ganviTarebis prognozireba.

aucilebelia aRiniSnos, rom mikrodoneze, calkeuli firmis

mixedviT, firmis mmarTvelobas SeuZlia sabazro koniunqturis

statistikis winaSe dasvas ufro lokaluri da specifikuri amocanebi,

romlebic dafuZnebuli iqneba im dargis an dargTa jgufis

Taviseburebebze, romelSic firma moRvaweobs.

komerciul saqmianobaSi gansxvavebuli amocanebi SeiZleba

ganpirobebuli iyos sabiTumo da sacalo vaWrobis firmebis mixedviT,

savaWro da sazogadoebrivi kvebis firmebis mixedviT, mTlianad

momsaxurebis sferosa da misi calkeuli dargebis (qvedargebis) firmebis

mixedviT da a.S. am SemTxvevaSi mTavaria firmis mmarTvelebma sworad

gansazRvron rogorc statistikuri gamokvlevis amocanebi, ise maTi

gadaWris Tanmimdevroba (etapebi), raTa miRebuli Sedegebi maRalefeqturi

iyos.

2. koniunqturuli informaciis wyaroebi

sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri analizisaTvis gamoiyeneba

produqciis warmoebis, saqonelbrunvis, sasaqonlo maragis, fasebis,

finansebis statistikis, socialur-demografiuli statistikis da sxva

wyaroebis monacemebi. iseTi informaciis mosapoveblad ki, romelic arc

erT statistikur krebulsa Tu sxva informaciis wyaroSi araa

warmodgenili, gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva xerxi. kerZod, SerCeviTi dakvirvebis

meTodi, specialuri samomento an perioduli gamokvlevebi.

specifikuri koniunqturuli informaciis miRebaSi didi rols

TamaSoben: savaWro agentebi, mosaxleobis azris Semswavleli punqtebi,

TviT savaWro obieqtebi, gamofena-gayidvisa da bazrobebis organizebis

adgilebi da a. S. informaciis wyaro SeiZleba iyos vaWrobis muSaki

(gamyidveli, saqonelmcodne, administraciis muSaki), agreTve informacia,

55

romelsac Rebulobs marTvis umaRlesi rgolis xelmZRvaneli firmis

qvedanayofebSi momuSaveebisagan.

informaciis mniSvnelovani nawilis mopovebas awarmoebs firmis

marketingis ganyofileba, risTvisac igi xSirad iyenebs sxvadsxva

Sinaarsisa da moculobis specialur marketingul kvlevebs.

amrigad, sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri SeswavlisaTvis aucilebeli informaciis misaRebad mravali wyaro arsebobs rogorc

saxelmwifo, ise arasaxelmwifo struqturebidan da organizaciebidan Sesabamis organoebSi savaldebulod warsadgen angariSgebaTa saxiT.

magram im SemTxvevaSi, Tu aseT wyaroebSi ar aRmoCndeba Sesabamisi

informacia, maSin am ukmarisobis Sesavsebad gamoiyeneba informaciis

mopovebis iseTi meTodebi, rogoricaa: saanketo gamokiTxva da saeqsperto

Sefaseba. aseve gamoiyeneba SedarebiT ufro axali, Tanamedrove meTodebi,

romelTagan aRsaniSnavia `delfis~ meTodi, gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis),

sineqtikis meTodi da sxv.

`delfis meTodi~ _ saxelwodeba momdinareobs Zveli berZnuli

qalaqis delfosagan, sadac arsebobda misanTa, winaswarmetyvelTa

uZvelesi centri. es meTodi SemuSavebulia aSS-is kvleviTi korporacia

`rend~-is mier. misi arsi SemdegSi mdgomareobs: dgeba mecnierulad

dasabuTebuli kiTxvarebi, romelsac eqspertTa jgufi avsebs anonimurad.

miRebuli Sefaseba muSavdeba statistikurad. pasuxebis saSualo

mniSvneloba iTvleba eqspertul Sefasebad. miRebul SefasebaTa

saimedooba mniSvnelovnadaa damokidebuli eqspertebis sworad SerCevaze,

maT kvalifikaciaze, erudiciasa da Sesaswavli sakiTxebis Sesaxeb maT

informirebulobaze. eqspertebis mier sagnis codna da analizuri

SesaZleblobebi mowmdeba testirebis gziT. Sefasebis sizuste agreTve

damokidebulia kvlevis Sedegebis statistikuri damuSavebis doneze.

upirveles yovlisa, SemuSavdeba principebi, romelic daismeba

eqspertebis winaSe, gamoiyeneba logikuri dasabuTebis meTodi, igeba

hipoTezebi kvlevis Sedegebis Sesaxeb. amis safuZvelze muSavdeba anketa.

pirvel etapze xdeba eqspertTa warmomadgenlobiTi jgufis formireba.

eqspertTa raodenoba optimaluri unda iyos. jgufis gacilebiT didi

raodenoba gaaZnelebs monacemebis damuSavebas, gaaZlierebs azrebis

gafantvas da gaadidebs kvlevis Rirebulebas, xolo eqspertebis zedmetad

mcire jgufi adidebs individualur SefasebaTa gavlenasa da SemTxveviTi

Secdomebis daSvebis albaTobas. saWiroa, gonieri sakmarisobis principis

gamoyeneba, romlis Tanaxmadac eqspertebis raodenobis erTi erTeuliT

gadideba (N+1) praqtikulad ar moaxdens gavlenas eqspertTa kiTxvebze

gacemuli pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis doneze. SesaZlebelia eqspertTa

kompetenturobis Sefasebis miReba (maTi ganzogadebuli Sexeduleba),

Semdegi formuliT:

56

, (4.1)

sadac aris SefardebiTi mniSvnelobis Sefaseba (balebSi) j-uri

eqspertis mier i-uri elementis mixedviT.

C - i-uri korespondentebis kompetenturobis koeficienti, romelic

iTvaliswinebs gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnisa da pasuxis

argumentirebis dones.

, (4.2)

sadac aris gansaxilveli sakiTxis codnis done;

_ pasuxis argumentirebis done;

i = 1... m _ eqspertebis nomrebi;

m - eqspertebis raodenoba;

j = 1... n,

n - Sesaswavli elementebis nomrebi miznebis xeze.

pasuxis saSualo mniSvneloba varirebs 1 da 100 bals Soris.

.

rac ufro metia , miT ufor metia j-uri elementis mniSvneloba

miznebis xeze.

calkeuli j-uri elementisaTvis ganisazRvreba saeqsperto

SefasebaTa dispersia:

, (4.3)

rac ufro mcirea meryeoba, miT metia pasuxebis SeTanxmebuloba da,

maSasadame, pasuxebis saimedooba.

gamokvlevis am meTodis dros eqspertebis gamokiTxva anonimuria,

calkeulma eqspertma ar icis, Tu mis garda kidev vin aris Cabmuli am

samuSaoSi. aseve ucnobia danarCeni anketebis Sinaarsi. dgindeba pasuxebis

ranJirebuli ganawileba atributuli da raodenobrivi niSnebis mixedviT.

gamoiTvleba pasuxebis statistikuri maxasiaTeblebi: saSualo sidideebi,

meryeobis maCveneblebi, mediana, kvartili (pirveli da mesame). am

SemTxvevaSi mediana ganixileba rogorc eqspertTa jgufuri azri

(Sexeduleba), xolo kvartilSorisi daSoreba warmoadgens eqspertTa

Sexedulebebis SeTanxmebulobis maCvenebels. rac ufro axloa eqspertebis

m

i

i

n

i

iij

j

C

CX

X

jX

2

an CCCi

nC

aC

100X1 j

jX

m

i

i

m

i

i

2

iij2

C

C)XX(

57

pasuxebis dispersiis meryeobis done nulTan, miT ufro maRalia

SeTanxmebuli Sefasebis reprezantatiuloba.

eqspertebis upirates gansjaTa (SexedulebaTa) gamovlenis Semdeg,

tardeba muSaoba maTi Tvalsazrisis dasaaxloveblad. mesame etapze yvela

eqsperts, romelTa Sefasebebic kvartilSorisi dacilebis (manZilis)

sazRvrebSia, acnoben im eqspertTa Sexedulebebis dasabuTebuli

gansxvavebebis mizezebs, romelTa Sefasebebic gamovida kvartilSorisi

dacilebis (manZilis) sazRvrebidan.

jgufSi darCenil TiToeul eqsperts eZleva ufleba Secvalos

Tavisi Sefaseba. amis Semdeg mTeli procedura meordeba axlidan,

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi ramdenjerme, sanam Sefasebebi ar dauaxlovdeba

erTmaneTs. daaxloeba unda gagrZeldes manamde, sanam maTi saSualo

saimedod (misaRebad) ar iqneba miCneuli, SexedulebebSi arsebuli

gansxvavebebi ki _ minimumade dayvanili.

praqtikaSi xSirad es procedura tardeba gamartivebulad da

SexedulebaTa mkacri gansxvavebis (gafantvis) SemTxvevaSi kmayofildebian

anketirebis erTi turiT.

eqspertis saimedobis donis maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

(4.4)

sadac n aris mocemuli eqspertis mier gakeTebuli Sefasebebis

saerTo ricxvi;

N - swor SefasebaTa saerTo ricxvi.

`gonebrivi Sturmis (ieriSis)~ meTodi warmoadgens sabazro

koniunqturis Sefasebis ufro operatiul da saimedo meTods. am meTodis

gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi xorcieldeba kvalificiuri specialistebis

SerCeva, Sefasebebi da daskvnebi keTdeba sxdomis mimdinareobisas. yvela

damswre iyofa or jgufad. pirveli jgufi koncentracias anu generacias

ukeTebs ideebsa da Sefasebebs, xolo meore aanalizebs maT. orive jgufs

hyavs saerTo xelmZRvaneli.

ganxilvisas didi yuradReba eqceva azrTa Tavisufali gacvlis

waxalisebas, amasTan, ikrZaleba wamoyenebul ideaTa da daxasiaTebaTa

aqtualobis (faseulobis) mimarT kritikuli SeniSvnebis gamoTqma.

xelmZRvaneli unda iyos miukerZoebeli da diskusia warmarTos saWiro

mimarTulebiT. rac ufro metia variantebis raodenoba, miT ufro maRalia

im namdvilad Rirebuli ideebisa da daxasiaTebaTa gamovlenis albaToba,

romelzedac daTanxmdeba monawileTa umravlesoba.

praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba sineqtikis meTodi (gansxvavebuli da

erTmaneTTan aSkarad Seusabamo elementebis SeerTeba). am dros xdeba

saqmianobis (moRvaweobis) sxvadasxva sferodan specialistebis Sekreba.

calkeuli monawile TaTbirs Rebulobs rogorc Sejibrebas da

N

nR

58

gansaxilvelad Seaqvs winaswar momzadebuli idea. miiReba is realuri

idea, romelsac mxars dauWers monawileTa umravlesoba.

aRniSnuli meTodebi farTod gamoiyeneba marketingul gamokvlevebSi

da koniunqturul gamokvlevebSi, myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)

moTxovnis gansazRvrisa da prognozirebis mizniT.

3. sabazro koniunqturis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis amocanebis gadawyveta xorcieldeba

maCvenebelTa sistemis meSveobiT. marTalia, sabazro koniunqtura

TavisTavad sakmaod rTuli sazogadoebrivi movlenebisa da procesebis

ricxvs miekuTvneba, magram is ufro iseTi rTuli sazogadoebrivi

movlenis erT-erTi Semadgeneli nawilia, rogoricaa saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis bazari.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema Sedgeba 5 blokisagan:

1. bazris (sabazro koniunqturis) formirebisa damdgomareobis

maCveneblebi;

2. fasebis mdgomareobis,cvlilebebis da maTi qcevis maCveneblebi;

3. saqonelmoZraobis maCvenebelebi;

4. bazris infrastruqturismaCvenebelebi;

5. sabazro saqmianobis socialur-ekonomikuri Sedegebis

maCvenebelebi.

amrigad, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris statistikis

maCvenebelTa sistemaSi umniSvnelovanesi adgili sabazro koniunqturis

statistikis maCvenebels ukavia. ramdenadac bazari rTul mravaldonian da

mravalstruqturul sistemas warmoadgens, imdenad misi statistikuri

daxasaiTeba qmnis urTierTdakavSirebul da ierarqiul sistemas, blokebsa

da elementebs, romlebic orientirebulia bazris statistikis

konceptualur da funqciur amocanebze.

statistikuri Seswavlis TvalsazrisiT, sabazro procesi

sqematurad SeiZleba aRweril iqnes Semdegnairad: upirveles yovlisa, ganasazRvrul proporciebSi yalibdeba moTxovna da miwodeba; maTi

urTierTkavSiri warmoSobs yidva-gayidvis aqts (saqonelbrunvas); saqoneli icvleba fulze Tanabrad Sewonili fasebis Sesabamisad, romelic gamodis

sasaqonlo-fuladi gacvlis ekvivalentad sabazro meqanizmis moqmedebis kanonis Tanaxmad.

es procesi Seqmnil pirobebze damokidebulebiT mimdinareobs

sxvadasxva siCqariTa da sxvadasxva veqtoriT, amasTan, adgili SeiZleba

hqondes procesis rogorc daCqarebas, ise Senelebas. aRniSnuli procesi

xorcieldeba masobrivi masStabiT da moiTxovs Sesabamis materialur,

satransporto, informaciul, SromiT da finansur uzrunvelyofas.

59

procesis saboloo mizans ki socialur-ekonomikuri efeqtis miReba

warmoadgens, rac imas niSnavs, rom momxmarebeli ikmayofilebs moTxovnas

(socialuri efeqti), xolo saqonlis (momsaxurebis) mwarmoebeli da

Suamaval-gamyidveli Rebulobs mogebas (ekonomikuri efeqti).

pirveli, anu sabazro koniunqturis bloki da masSi Semavali

maCvenebelTa kompleqsi gankuTvnilia sabazro situaciis kompleqsurad

dasaxasiaTeblad. is Seicavs bazris mTavar kategoriebs _ moTxovnasa da

miwodebas da asaxavs bazris masStabebsa da mTavar proporciebs, mis

tendenciebsa da meryeobas. mocemuli bloki Seicavs 9 qvejgufs, romlebic,

Tavis mxriv, aerTianebs erTgvarovan an msgavs maCveneblebs da sxvadasxva

kuTxiT axasiaTebs sabazro koniunqturas.

aRniSnuli qveblokebia (qvejgufebia): 1. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) miwodeba: mTlianad da calkeuli

saqonlis, gamyidvelebis (mwarmoeblebis, savaWro Suamavlebisa da sabazro

procesis sxva monawileebis) da regionebis mixedviT. qvejgufi Seicavs

maCveneblebs:

1.1 miwodebis moculoba, struqtura da dinamika;

1.2 miwodebis sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali;

1.3 miwodebis elastikuroba;

2. gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTunariani) moTxovna, saqonelze

(momsaxurebaze): mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlis, myidvelebisa

(masobrivi da piradi momxmareblebis) da regionebis mixedviT;

2.1. diferencirebuli moTxovna Semdegi niSnebis mixedviT:

dakmayofilebis donis, cvlilebebis veqtoris, aRmocenebis formebis,

myidvelobiTi qcevis, bazris mdgomareobisa da yidvis adgilis mixedviT;

2.2. samomxmareblo potenciali (mTlianad da calkeuli saqonlisa

da momsaxurebis mixedviT): warmoebis saSualebaTa bazris tevadoba,

moxmarebis sagnebis bazris tevadoba da momsaxurebis bazris tevadoba;

2.3. moTxovnis elastikuroba.

3. bazris proporciuloba.

3.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardoba;

3.2. warmoebis saSualebaTa, moxmarebis sagnebisa da momsaxurebis

bazrebis Tanafardoba;

3.3. saqonelbrunvis sasaqonlo struqtura;

3.4. mwarmoeblebs, sabiTumo da sacalo gamyidvelebs Soris bazris

dayofa(xvedriTi wona);

3.5. gamyidvelebis struqtura sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT;

3.6. myidvelTa struqtura (sabiTumo _ sakuTrebis formebis

mixedviT,

sacalo _ socialur-demografiuli da sxva samomxmareblo

niSnebis mixedviT);

3.7. bazris regionaluri struqtura.

4. bazris ganviTarebis tendencia.

60

4.1. gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis, investiciebis da mogebis

zrdis tempebi; trendebis veqtorebi da parametrebi.

5. bazris meryeoba, mdgradoba da cikluroba.

5.1. gayidvis, fasebisa da sasaqonlo maragis variaciis

koeficientebi

drosa da sivrceSi (ekonomikuri da geografiuli);

5.2.bazris ganviTarebis sezonurobisa da ganviTarebis ciklurobis

modelTa parametrebi.

6. bazris mdgomareobisa da ganviTarebis regionaluri gansxvavebebi.

6.1. moTxovnisa da miwodebis Tanafardobisa da bazris sxva

proporciaTa regionuli variacia;

6.2. moTxovnis donis regionuli variacia (erT mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT);

6.3. bazris dinamikuriganviTareba: veqtori siCqare,

7. saqmiani aqtiuroba.

7.1. SekveTebis `portfeli~, misi Semadgenloba, Sevsebuloba da

dinamika;

7.2. garigebaTa raodenoba, zoma, sixSire da dinamika;

7.3. sawarmoo (savaWro) simZlavreTa datvirTvis done.

8. komerciuli (sabazro) riski.

8.1. saivesticio riski;

8.2. marketingul gadawyvetilebaTa miRebis riski;

8.3. SemTxveviTi sabazro ryevaTa riski.

9. bazris masStabi (zoma), monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis done.

9.1. calkeuli saqonlis mixedviT bazarze warmodgenili firmebis

ricxvi, maTi ganawileba sakuTrebis formebis, organizaciuli

formebisa da specializaciis mixedviT;

9.2. saqonlis (momsaxurebis) realizaciis (gayidvis) mTliani

moculoba bazarze da firmebis ganawileba gayidvis moculobis

mixedviT;

9.3. privatizaciis done: privatizebuli firmebis ricxvi da

xevdriTi

wona, maTi organizaciuli formebi, maTi xvedriTi wona bazris

mTlian moculobaSi;

9.4. bazris dayofa (firmebis dajgufeba gayidvis moculobis

xvedriTi wonis mixedviT);

9.5. mcire, saSualo da msxvili firmebis xvedriTi wona bazris

mTlian moculobaSi.

rogorc warmodgenil maCvenebelTa sistemidan Cans, masSi Sedis

sabazro koniunqturis ara marto specifikuri maCveneblebi, aramed bazris

statistikis sxva blokebis mTeli rigi maCveneblebic.

sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa Taviseburebas warmoadgens im

statistikuri modelebis parametrebad gamoyeneba, romlebic asaxaven

61

bazris tendenciebsa da ciklurobas. garda amisa, saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis bazris statistikis sxva blok-maCveneblebisagan gansxvavebiT,

koniunqturis blokSi mravali mniSvnelovani maCvenebeli asaxavs ara

statikur (uZrav) mdgomareobas (movlenas), aramed dinamikur da variaciul

process, xolo danarCeni maCveneblebi axasaiaTeben movlenis struqturas,

Tanafardobasa da Zvrebs (cvlilebebs).

zogierTi koniunqturuli daxasiaTebebi, kerZod, tendenciebi da

maTi mdgradoba, SesaZlebelia miRebul iqnes mxolod trenduli

modelebis Sesabamisi damuSavebis Sedegad. erT-erTi ZiriTadi

moculobiTi maCvenebeli _ moTxovna, warmoadgens iseT sidides, romlis

Sefaseba (gazomva) mxolod arapirdapiri gziTaa SesaZlebeli. meore

moculobiTi maCveneblis, bazris masStabis (zomis) daxasiaTeba ki

SesaZlebelia sxva blokebis iseT maCvenebelTa gamoyenebiT, rogoricaa:

gayidvebis moculoba, garigebebis ricxvi, gamyidvelebisa da myidvelebis

raodenoba da a.S.

sabazro koniunqturis maCvenebelTa sistemis ukeTesad gagebis mizniT

ganvixiloT ZiriTad maCvenebelTa arsi da gaangariSebis Taviseburebebi.

miwodeba bazris umniSvnelovanesi maCvenebelia da Sesabamisad, sabazro

koniunqturis amosaval maCvenebels warmoadgens. miwodeba aris saqonlis

(momsaxurebis) is moculoba, romelic gankuTvnilia gasayidad da bazarze misi myidvelisaTvis SeTavazeba xdeba garkveuli periodis manZilze, gansazRvruli fasebiT.

sabazro koniunqturis operatiul analizSi gamoiyeneba firmis mier

saqonlis moklevadiani miwodebis maCvenebeli, e. i. saqonlis raodenoba

(moculoba), romelsac firma yidis (sTavazobs) sxvadasxva fasebSi mokle

periodis ganmavlobaSi.

bazris daxasiTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saqonlis deficiturobis donis maCvenebeli (kerZod, gamyidvelis bazarze, rodesac moTxovna

aRemateba miwodebas), agreTve arsebobs specifikuri Taviseburebebi

warmoebis saSualebebis, samomxmareblo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

miwodebaSi. miwodebis specifikuri formebi gamoiyeneba sabiTumo da

samomxmareblo bazrebze.

miwodebis determinatebad bazarze gamodis fasismieri faqtorebi, kerZod, mocemuli saqonlis an momsaxurebis fasi, nedleulisa da

resursebis fasi, mosalodneli inflaciuri procesebi. mas miekuTvneba

agreTve nedleulisa da mza produqciis dabegvra da dotacia,

konkurentebis ricxvi bazarze, teqnoligiis Taviseburebebi (upiratesobebi)

da mecnierul-teqnikuri miRwevebi.

cnobilia, rom gansazRvrul situaciebSi miwodebasa da moTxovnas Soris arsebobs kavSiri. kerZod, moTxovna warmoSobs miwodebas, magram

miwodebac garkveulwilad gavlenas axdens moTxovnaze, magaliTad, gamyidvelis bazarze, moTxovna uTanabrdeba miwodebebis SezRudul SesaZleblobebs, xolo myidvelis bazarze miwodeba orientacias akeTebs

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moTxovnaze. garkveul situaciebSi miwodeba, Tavis mxriv, warmoSobs moTxovnas, kerZod, amas adgili aqvs bazarze zogierTi axali saqonlis

gamoCenisas. yovelive es kargadaa Seswavlili marketingisa da ekonomikuri

Teoriis mecnierebis mier da aucileblad unda iqnes gaTvaliswinebuli bazris koniunqturis analizis procesSi.

garda aRniSnulisa, miwodebis moculobaze did gavlenas axdens sawarmoo da sanedleulo potenciali (warmoebiTi SesaZleblobebis done).

is miuTiTebs warmoebis im SesaZleblobaTa doneze, romelic

uzrunvelyofs Sesabamisi moculobisa da struqturis saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis miwodebas bazarze.

miwodebis ara naklebmniSvnelovan maCveneblad SeiZleba miCneul

iqnes miwodebis elastikuroba, e. i. misi cvlilebis done, romelic

xorcieldeba miwodebis determinatebis, kerZod, resursebis fasebis,

warmoebis teqnologiis, gadasaxadebisa da dotaciebis, saqonlis fasebis,

gamyidvelTa raodenobis da sxva cvlilebis gavleniT.

Semdeg umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels sabazro koniunqturis

maCvenebelTa sistemaSi moTxovna, anu gadaxdisunariani (myidvelobiTi)

moTxovna warmoadgens. gadaxdisunariani moTxovna aris is moTxovnileba (moTxovnilebis nawili), romelic uzrunvelyofilia fuladi saxsrebiT da

warmodgenilia bazarze. moTxovnilebaSi ki igulisxmeba survili an saWiroeba daeuflo

(isargeblo) raime produqts an sagans, romelic aucilebelia adamianis

cxovrebisaTvis. arsebobs moTxovnisa da moTxovnilebis ramdenime

gansxvavebuli ganmarteba.

moTxovnis formirebisa da dakmayofilebis procesi SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: survili, saWiroeba, moTxovnileba, fuli, moTxovna, fasebi, miwodeba, yidva, dakmayofileba. aRsaniSnavia, rom mocemuli Tanmimdevrobis calkeuli etapi eqvemdebareba

statistikur, marketingul da sxva saxis kvlevebs. statistikuri kvlevebis dros moTxovnis danawevreba saSualebas

iZleva ufro moqnilad Sefasdes bazris mdgomareoba da mocemuli

saxeobis moTxovnis prognozirebisas gamoyenebul iqnes mxolod is

faqtorebi, romelic uSualo gavlenas axdens masze.

statistikuri kvlevebis ganxorcielebisas gansakuTrebuli miSvneloba

eniWeba bazris mdgomareobis mixedviT moTxovnis dayofas, kerZod, gamoiyofa moTxovnis Semdegi saxeobebi:

negatiuri moTxovna, rodesac myidvelis mxridan arsebobs

winaswarCamoyalibebuli uaryofiTi damokidebuleba saqonlis

mimarT, an saqonelma Tavi moabezra myidvels;

moTxovnis sruli ar arseboba, roca raRac mizeziT saqonels ar

cnobs myidveli da aRar yidulobs mas;

63

dafaruli moTxovna, rodesac arsebobs gansazRvruli moTxovna,

magram Sesabamisi Tvisebebis mqone saqoneli ar (jer ar) iwarmoeba;

srulyofili moTxovna, roca moTxovna saqonelze umaRles fazaSia

da gamyidvelebi kmayofilebi arian gayidvis moculobiT (amonagebiT,

saqonelbrunviT).

zogjer gamoiyofa gadaWarbebuli moTxovna, rodesac ise izrdeba

moTxovna, rom warmoeba ver akmayofilebs mas. moTxovnis am saxeobis

mixedviT Catarebuli statistikuri analizi saSualebas aZlevs

komerciul firmas sworad SeimuSavos sabazro starategia da

miaRwios maRal rentabelobas.

Zviri saqonlis bazarze gamoyofen gadadebul (dagrovebiT) moTxovnas, romlis dasakmayofileblad saWiroa fulis dagroveba

garkveuli periodis manZilze. aseTi moTxovnis arsebobis codna

metad aucilebelia produqciis warmoebis dagegmvis an saqonlis

ganvadebiT gayidvis organizebisas. aRniSnuli saxeobis moTxovna

vlindeba mosaxleobis fuladi danazogebis matebis saxiT.

moTxovnis saxeobad dayofa, agreTve, warmoebs teritoriuli

TvalsazrisiTac. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu moTxovnis statistikuri analizi

moicavs qveynis mTlian teritorias, maSin mas uwodeben globalur

moTxovnas, romlisagan gamoiyofaqalaqisa da soflis moTxovna. regionaluri moTxovnis analizisas gamoiyofa adgilobrivi mosaxleobis

moTxovna, romelsac uwodeben stacionalur (sabaziso) moTxovnas da

mobiluri (migrirebadi) moTxovna, romelic vlindeba mudmivi sacxov-

rebeli adgilis sazRvrebs miRma. am ukanaskneli moTxovnis saxesxvaobas

warmoadgens rekreaciuli moTxovna, romelic dakavSirebulia turizmsa

da dasvenebasTan.

sabazro koniunqturis analizisas gamoiyofa dakmayofilebuli moTxovna, romelic ZiriTadad utoldeba gayidvis moculobas da

daukmayofilebeli moTxovna, romelic vlindeba saWiro saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis SeZenis SeuZleblobaSi.

statistikur analizSi agreTve gamoiyeneba deficiturobis donis maCvenebeli, romelic gansazRvravs im saqonlis xvedriT wonas, romelic

ar imyofeba regularul gayidvaSi. rodesac deficiturobis donis

maCvenebeli uaxlovdeba 100%-s, saqme gvaqvs totalur deficitTan.

imis gamo, rom moTxovna metad moqnilia, igi mgrZnobiarea mravali

faqtoris zemoqmedebis mimarT.

rogorc cnobilia, moTxovnis determinantebad, upirveles yovlisa,

fasismieri faqtorebi gvevlineba. Tu moTxovnis kanons, romelic

dawvrilebiTaa ganxiluli ekonomikuri Teoriisadmi miZRvnil

saxelmZRvaneloebSi (ekonomikuri Teoriis safuZvlebi, ekonomiksi,

ekonomika da a.S.), grafikuli modelis saxiT gamovxatavT, miviRebT fasebis

cvlilebebze moTxovnis damokidebulebis amsaxvel hiperbolur mruds.

64

sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, Tu fasi izrdeba, maSin moTxovna saqonelze

klebulobs.

gasaTvaliswinebelia isic, rom moTxovnaze mniSvnelovan gavlenas

axdens mosaxleobis realuri Semosavlebis done anu momxmarebelTa gadaxdisunarianoba.

amasTan, moTxovnas gaaCnia sazRvrebi, romelic izRudeba bazris gajerebulobis doniT da ganisazRvreba bazarze arsebuli saqonlis

moculobiT. sabazro koniunqturis analizisas erTob Znelia faqtobrivi

monacemebis safuZvelze moTxovnisa da miwodebis moculobaTa Sedareba.

aseT SesaZleblobas iZleva moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi (ix. sqema 1),

magram misi ageba SesaZlebelia mxolod saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

mTliani erTobliobiT (moculobiT).

sqema 1.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansis sqema

msyidvelobiTi fondebi sasaqonlo resursebi

mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi,

Semosuli yvela wyarodan, savaldebulo

gadasaxadebis da danazogis im nawilis

matebis gamoklebiT, romelic

gankuTvnilia socialuri

saWiroebisaTvis da saqonlis yidvasTan

kavSirSi armyofi sxva miznebisTvis.

fuladi saxsrebi (danazogebi),

dauxarjavi gadadebuli moTxovnisa da

daukmayofilebeli moTxovnis gamo

jami

saSualo sasaqonlo maragi

weliwadSi

realizebulia saqoneli

weliwadSi

gaweulia momsaxureba weliwadSi

jami

saldo (+, _)

bazris proporciulobis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia sabalanso meTodis meSveobiT, struqturisa da koordinaciis SefardebiTi MmaCveneblebiT (Sefardebis koeficientebis, xvedriTi wonebis), zrdis tempis indeqsebiT,

struqturuli cvlilebebis indeqsebiT, saSualo kvadratuli an wrfivi

gadaxrebiT. proporciebi agreTve gamoisaxeba elastikurobis koeficientiT,

romelic uCvenebs saSedego maCveneblis cvlilebas faqtoruli niSnis

erTi procentiT cvlilebisas (gadidebis an Semcirebisas).

bazari diniamikuri movlenaa, misi drois mixedviT cvlileba

gamoisaxeba dinamikis maCvenebelTa sistemiT. kerZod, es xdeba dinamikuri

mwkrivebis maCveneblebiTa da maTi analizis saSualebiT.

65

sabazro procesebis cvlilebis tendenciaTa (zrdis, Semcirebis)

gamovlenis ZiriTad meTods trenduli modelis ageba warmoadgens. masTan

erTad aseve gamoiyeneba grafikuli meTodebi.

bazari, Tundac regulirebadi, warmoudgenelia stiqiuri

gamovlinebebis gareSe. bazris es Tviseba vlindeba sxvadasxva

parametrebis ryevadobaSi. statistikurad igi xasiaTdeba gayidvis, fasebis, sasaqonlo maragis variaciis sxvadasxva maCveneblebiT. bazris

ganviTarebis mdgradobis done droSi xasiaTdeba ZiriTad tendenciebidan

(trendidan) faqtiuri donis gadaxrebiT, rac gaizomeba aproqsimaciis koeficientiT, gamosaxuliT procentebSi saSualo donesTan mimarTebiT.

bazris ganviTrebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia ganmeorebadoba, anu

cikluroba. ciklebs axasiaTebs gansxvavebuli xangrZlivoba da

Tanmimdevroba. wlis ganmavlobaSi Cveulebriv SeiniSneba sezonuri

meryeoba, romlis intensivobac ganisazRvreba variaciis koeficientiT.

sezonuri ciklebi gansxvavebulia calkeuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebisaTvis da sxvadasxvanairad vlindeba sxvadasxva ekonomikur da

klimatur zonebSi. sezonuroba, Cveulebriv, modelirdeba me-3 da ufro maRali rigis paraboliT.

saqonelbrunva

savaWro saqmianobisa da saerTod, bazris statistikis mTavar

maCvenebels saqonelbrunva warmoadgens.

saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba bazris koniunqturis

Sesafaseblad, sasaqonlo masis moculobis gasazomad, savaWro firmis

zomis gansazRvrisaTvis, savaWro firmis fuladi amonagebis maCveneblad

da misi finansur-ekonomikuri mdgomareobis dasadgenad. is aCvenebs

myidvelebis mier saqonlis SeZenaze daxarjuli fulisa da moxmarebuli

sasaqonlo masis moculobas. Ggarda amisa, saqonlis gayidvis maCveneblebi

gamoiyeneba wonebad fasebis indeqsebis gaangariSebisas.

amrigad, saqonelbrunva metad mravalmxriv da didmniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens, romelsac makroekonomikur doneze, rogorc ekonomikuri, ise socialuri mniSvneloba aqvs.

aseve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva realizebuli fasebis

jamobrivi maCvenebelia, romelsac safuZvlad udevs sami ZiriTadi

faswarmomqneli elementi: saqonlis warmoebis danaxarjebi, mimoqcevis sferoSi (gayidvaze) gaweuli danaxarjebi da saqonelmoZraobis yvela

doneze miRebuli mogeba.

saqonelbrunva ZiriTadad izomeba RirebulebiT erTeulebSi, rac ar

gamoricxavs mis gazomvas naturalur an pirobiT-naturalur erTeulebSi.

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RirebulebiT erTeulebSi saqonelbrunvis sidide Q damokidebulia

gayiduli saqonlis raodenobaze (q) da erTeuli saqonlis fasze (p),

amrigad, saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes Semdegi formuliT:

Q= pq.

nebismier qveyanaSi mTliani saqonelbrunva SeiZleba warmodgenil

iqnes Semdegi ierarqiuli sistemis saxiT: saqonlis yidva-gayidvis aqti

uSualod xorcieldeba firmaSi, romelic SeiZleba iyos rogorc msxvili

savaWro firma, ise individualuri an saojaxo. Tavis mxriv, nebismieri

savaWro firmis saqonelbrunvis moculoba, iqneba es sabiTumo Tu sacalo

vaWrobis firma, moicavs erTeuli yidva-gayidvis aqtebis erTobliobas.

amrigad, SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqonelbrunva yidva-gayidvis aqtebis

erTobliobaa.

amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda miviRoT is garemoeba, rom

saqonelbrunvis aRricxva xorcieldeba saqonlis momxmarebelTan

(myidvelTan) faqtobrivad gagzavnis momentSi. myidveli swored am droidan

xdeba saqonlis mesakuTre. saboloo Sedegobrivi TvalsazrisiT

(magaliTad, qveynis an dargobriv doneze), saqonelbrunva maCvenebelTa

sistemaSi makromaCveneblis rolSi gamodis. is SeiZleba diferencirebul

iqnes saxadasxva niSnis mixedviT da warmoqmnas mikromaCveneblebi,

romlebic asaxaven saqonelmoZraobis calkeul mxareebs.

imis gamo, rom saqonelbrunva warmoadgens sinTezur maCvenebels,

misi analizi SeiZleba gakeTdes Semadgeneli struqturuli erTeulebis

mixedviT. kerZod, qveynis masStabiT saqonelbrunva SeiZleba gaanalizdes

teritoriul WrilSi _ msxvili regionebis, qalaqebisa da raionebis, aseve

gayiduli saqonlis daniSnulebis an sxva niSnis mixedviT.

vaWrobis dargis firmebis saqonelbrunva savaWro-saSuamavlo

saqonelbrunvaa.

makrodoneze SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes saqonelbrunvis saerTo

moculobis naerTi maCvenebeli, romelSic gaerTianebulia zemoT

dasaxelebuli yvela elementi. am maCvenebliT SeiZleba ganisazRvros

saqonelbrunvis roli ekonomikaSi (saqonelbrunvis xvedriTi wona mTlian

Sida erovnul produqtSi), piradi moxmarebis xvedriTi wona ekonomikaSi

(samomxmareblo produqtebisa da momsaxurebaze gaweuli danaxarjebis

xvedriTi wona mTlian erovnul produqtSi) da sxv.

rogorc aRvniSneT, saqonelbrunvis procesSi monawileobas iReben

savaWro Suamavlebi. rac ufro metia Suamavlebi, miT ufro izrdeba

saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli, radgan izrdeba erTi da imave saqonlis

gayidvaTa ricxvi da mas saerTo (mTliani) saqonelbrunva ewodeba.

67

amrigad, mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde mimaval gzaze

ganxorcielebuli yvela gayidvis jami qmnis mTlian saqonelbrunvas.

advili misaxvedria, rom am SemTxvevaSi adgili aqvs ganmeorebiT aRricxvebs, ris gamoc xelovnurad izrdeba saqonelbrunvis faqtobrivi

moculoba, romlis sididec saqonelmoZraobis rgolebis ricxvis

pirdapirproporciulia. amitom mTliani saqonelbrunvis maCvenebeli ar

SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes seriozuli ekonomikuri gaangariSebebis

dros.

saqonelbrunvis realuri moculobis dasadgenad, romelic gaivlis

mTlian gzas mwarmoeblidan momxmareblamde, gaiangariSeben maCvenebels,

romelic gamoricxavs ganmeorebiT aRricxvas da mas uwodeben wminda saqonelbrunvas.

wminda saqonelbrunvaSi igulisxmeba saqonlis saboloo,

ganumeorebadi (ganuaxlebadi) gayidva.

saboloo gayidva niSnavs, rom saqonlis mocemuli partia (mocemuli

saqoneli) metad aRar gaiyideba. imis gamo, rom wminda saqonelbrunva

gaTavisuflebulia ganmeorebiTi aRricxvisagan, is warmoadgens

saqonelbrunvis statistikis mTavar SefasebiT da sabazo maCvenebels.

wminda saqonelbrunva gamoiyeneba savaWro (gamsaRebeli) firmis

(organizaciis) komerciuli saqmianobis Sedegebis Sesafaseblad, misi

zomis dasadgenad, mimoqcevis danaxarjebis gasaangariSeblad da

rentabelobis donis gansazRvrisaTvis.

praqtikuli TvalsazrisiT, firmebis mier erTmaneTisaTvis saqonlis

miyidva TiToeulisaTvis iqneba wminda saqonelbrunva, magram firmebis

mTeli erTobliobisaTvis igi mTliani (sabiTumo) saqonelbrunvaa.

gayidvebis aseTi saerTo jami ganmeorebiTi aRricxvis Sedegadaa

miRebuli, amitom monacemebis Sekrebisas igi unda gamoiricxos.

yovelive aRniSnuli SeiZleba warmodgenil iqnes sqemis saxiT (ix.

sqema 2). gaangariSebaTa gaadvilebis mizniT, mxedvelobaSi ar miiReba

SesaZlo danakargebis moculoba, saqonlis fasis cvlileba (romelic

SeiZleba gamowveuli iyos mimoqcevis xarjebis cvlilebiT) da erovnuli

valutis inflacia.

rogorc sqemidan Cans, saqonelmoZraobis mTeli sistemisaTvis

saqonelbrunvis moculoba Seadgens 300 mln lars (180+120).

pirvel arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva udris 180 mln lars

(60+60+60=180), xolo wminda saqonelbrunva Seadgens 60 mln lars.

68

meore arxze mTliani saqonelbrunva 120 mln laris tolia

(80+20+20=120), xolo wminda saqonelbrunva udris 20 mln lars.

amasTan, mTliani wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba ar aris toli

saqonelmoZraobis calkeuli arxis (ori arxi) wminda saqonelbrunvis

moculobis jamis, anu 140 mln larisa (80+60=140), radgan sabiTumo

saSuamavlo firmis mier wvril sabiTumo firmaze miyiduli saqoneli 60

mln laris moculobiT sistemaSi mocemuli mTeli vaWrobisaTvis

warmoadgens Sida saqonelbrunvas da ganmeorebiTaa aRricxuli. wminda

saqonelbrunva ki udris saboloo gayidvas (romelic am SemTxvevaSi

mosaxleobis mier moixmareba) da Seadgens 80 mln lars (20+60=80).

amave Sedegs miviRebT, Tu zemoT gaangariSebul orive arxis wminda

saqonelbrunvaTa jamidan gamovricxavT ganmeorebiT aRricxvas. kerZod,

140-60=80 mln lars.

produqciis mwarmoebeli

firma

sabiTumo saSuamavlo firma

wvrili sabiTumo firma sacalo vaWrobis firma

#1

sacalo vaWrobis firma

#2

m o s a x l e o b a

60 mln lar

i 60 mln lar

i 20 ml

n lar

i

80 mln lari

20 mln 60

mln

lar

i

sqema 2.

saqonelmoZraoba firmaTSorisi kavSirebis

69

maSasadame, realuri an wminda saqonelbrunvis moculobis

dasadgenad mTavaria saqonlis xelaxali gayidvis ricxvis dadgena, anu

saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficientis gaangariSeba.

saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti ganisazRvreba mTliani saqonelbrunvis SefardebiT wminda saqonelbrunvasTan.

es damokidebuleba SeiZleba gamoisaxos Semdegi formuliT:

, Q

QC

wm

mTrg.

sadac C aris saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koeficienti;

Q _ mTliani saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Q – wminda saqonelbrunvis moculoba.

Cvens magaliTSi saqonelbrunvis rgolurobis koeficienti pirveli

arxisaTvis udris:

25,280

180rg.C rgols.

meore arxisaTvis rgolurobis koeficienti tolia:

5,180

120rg.C rgolis.

mTeli sistemisaTvis (orive arxisaTvis) saqonelmoZraobis

rgolurobis saSualo koeficienti Seadgens:

75,380

300

80

120180C

saS. rgols.

rogorc ukve aRiniSna, aseTi gaangariSeba swor Sedegs iZleva im

SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqonlis mTlianma moculobam danakargebisa da

sasaqonlo maragebis cvlilebis gareSe miaRwia bolo rgols.

aRniSnuli gaangariSebis praqtikuli gamoyenebisaTvis saWiroa

sasaqonlo maragis cvlilebebis gansazRvra da maTi Setana gaangariSebaSi.

sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba SeiZleba ganisazRvros saangariSo wlis bolosa da axali wlis (periodis) dasawyisisaTvis arsebuli

sasaqonlo maragis sxvaobiT. is gaiangariSeba formuliT:L

,ZZZ dg

70

sadac ΔZ aris sasaqonlo maragis cvlileba (mateba an kleba),

Z _ maragi wlis (periodis) bolosaTvis;

Z _ maragi wlis dasawyisisaTvis.

rodesac aRricxvis an sxva mizezebis gamo firmaSi ar moipoveba

monacemebi sasaqonlo maragis Taobaze, maSin SesaZlebelia

saqonelmoZraobis sabalanso formulis meSveobiT ganisazRvros

sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi cvlileba:

dd ZSqZ ,

sadac q _ saqonelbrunvis sferoSi Semosuli saqonlis moculoba

mocemul periodSi;

S _ saqonlis gayidvis moculoba amave periodSi.

zogadad, sasaqonlo maragis mateba udris saqonlis Semosvlasa da

gayidvas Soris sxvaobas. im SemTxvevaSi, Tu Semosuli saqonlis gayidvis

moculoba aRemateba saqonlis gayidvis moculobas, maSin adgili aqvs

sasaqonlo maragis zrdas, xolo Tu Semosvla gayidvaze naklebia,

sasaqonlo maragi mcirdeba. Tu saqonlis Semosvla gayidvis tolia, maSin

sasaqonlo maragi ucvleli rCeba.

praqtikuli miznebisaTvis, saqonelmoZraobis rgolurobis koe-

ficientis gaangariSebisas, aucilebelia sasaqonlo maragis cvlilebis

gaTvaliswineba. kerZod, sasaqonlo maragis gadidebis SemTxvevaSi matebis moculoba (Tanxa) emateba rgolurobis koeficientis mricxvels da mniSvnels, xolo sasaqonlo maragis Semcirebisas _ Semcirebis moculoba

(Tanxa) gamoakldeba aRniSnuli koeficientis mricxvelsa da mniSvnels. amasTan, gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, rom Tu maragis cvlileba moxda ara sacalo, aramed sabiTumo rgolSi, maSin Sesworeba Setanil unda iqnes koeficientis mxolod mricxvelSi.

savaWro saqmianobis analizisas aranaklebi mniSvneloba eniWeba

iseTi xarisxobrivi mikromaCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa:

saqonelbrunvis sasaqonlo struqtura, romlis drosac jer gaiangariSeba,

xolo Semdeg analizdeba calkeuli saqonlis an sasaqonlo jgufis

(erTgvarovnebis mixedviT) xvedriTi wona gayidvis mTlian moculobaSi.

saqonelbrunvis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia saqonelbrunvis

moculoba erT mcxovrebze. is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi

(Cveulebriv weliwadSi) saqonelbrunvis moculobis SefardebiT qveynis

71

(regionis) mosaxleobis saSualo (saSualowliur) raodenobasTan. es

damokidebuleba SeiZleba gamoisaxos formuliT:

,N

QQ

m

sac

mcx

sadac Qmcx aris saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze;

Qsac _ sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculoba;

Nm _ mosaxleobis saSualowliuri raodenoba.

magaliTi. qveynis (regionis) mosaxleobis raodenobam wlis dasawyisSi

Seadgina 4560 aTasi kaci, xolo wlis bolos 4750 aTasi kaci anu

saSualowliuri raodenoba udris 4655 aTas kacs ( 46552

47504560

aTasi

kaci). qveyanaSi (regionSi) sacalo saqonelbrunvis moculobam Seadgina

3450 aTasi lari.

amrigad, saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT mcxovrebze udris 741 lars

lari aTasi

lari aTasi

lari aTasi 741

4655

3450.

es maCvenebeli asrulebs ormag funqcias: zomadobis faqtoris

gamoricxviT (mosaxleobis ricxovnobis) uzrunvelyofs regionaluri

saqonelbrunvis maCveneblebis Sesadarisobas da, axasiaTebs ra saqonlis

Sesyidvebis saSualo individualur dones, gamoiyeneba dinamikur

SedarebebSi e. i. igi vaWrobis socialuri efeqtianobis maCvenebelia.

sabazro ekonomikis pirobebSi nebismier firmaSi mimarTaven

marketingul gamokvlevebs, romlis drosac gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba

eniWeba iseTi maCveneblis gaangariSebas, rogoricaa bazris tevadoba.

bazris tevadoba gaiangariSeba calkeuli saqonlis an msgavs saqonelTa

jgufis mixedviT. is SeiZleba ganisazRvros Semdegi formuliT:

H = N·S·C – (Q – Kf – Km) – A – V ,

sadac H aris bazris tevadoba, anu saqonlis is raodenoba, romelic

SeiZleba aiTvisos bazarma garkveul pirobebSi;

N – firmis gavlenis (momsaxurebis) sferoSi arsebuli momxmareblis

raodenoba;

S – saqonlis saSualo moxmarebis moculoba (zoma) erT momxmarebelze

72

gaangariSebiT (normativiT, saeqsperto SefasebiT, prognoziT, an sabaziso

periodSi);

C _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti Semosavlebze an fasebze

damokidebulebiT, romelic gaiangariSeba formuliT:

,P

Q:

P

CC

0

0

sadac Q aris moxmarebis (moTxovnis) zrda erT mcxovrebze;

0Q da 1Q _ moxmareba fasebis cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

P _ fasebis zrda;

0P da 1P _ fasi Sesabamisad cvlilebamde da cvlilebis Semdeg;

Q _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqoneli;

Kf da Km _ momxmareblis mflobelobaSi arsebuli saqonlis

fizikuri da moraluri cveTa;

A – moTxovnis alternatiuli dakmayofilebis wyaroebi;

V _ konkurentebis mier gayiduli (an mosalodneli gayidvis)

saqonlis (saqonelbrunvis) moculoba (xvedriTi wona).

magaliTi. momxmarebelTa ricxvma Seadgina 550 aTasi kaci. sabaziso

periodSi saqonelis moxmarebis done erT sul mosaxleze Seadgenda 25

erTeuls kacze. elastikurobis koeficientma uCvena, rom fasebis donis

1%-iani zrdisas moTxovna saqonelze 0,2% mcirdeba (E = _ 0,8).

prognozuli SefasebiT mosalodnelia fasebis 10%-iani zrda. maSin

moxmarebis saSualo done erT sul mosaxleze Seadgens:

Q=2,5 _ (25 X(1_0,8) X10=20 erT/kac.

bazris sabaziso tevadoba toli iyo: erT/kac. Tumca

wlis dasawyisisTvis mosaxleobas gaaCnda saqonelis 600 aTasi erTeuli,

eqspertuli SefasebebiT 120 aTasi erTeuli uvargisi gaxdeba momsaxurebis

vadis gasvlis gamo, xolo moraluri cveTis mizeziT 80 aTasi erTeuli

Seicvleba modernizirebuli saqoneliT. garda amisa, mosaxleoba

saqonelis 100 aTas erTeuls Cveulebriv Sav bazarze iZens. Aam SesworebiT

bazris tevadoba Seadgens:

E=1100 – (600-120-80)-100=200

73

wina wlebis monacemebiT bazris 2/3 ekuTvnis konkurentebs,

maSasadame, mocemuli firmisaTvis saqonelis bazris tevadoba Seadgens

200 aTas erTeuls.

savaWro saqmianobis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi maCveneblia

sasaqonlo maragi.

sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi garkveuli periodis manZilze uZrav mdgomareobaSia da misi arseboba ganpirobebulia obieqturi

aucileblobiT. sasaqonlo maragi warmoadgens firmaSi mocemuli momentisaTvis arsebuli saqonlis im masas, romelic jer kidev ar aris gayiduli da elodeba gayidvis periodis dadgomas.

ganasxvaveben sasaqonlo maragis or maCvenebels: sasaqonlo maragis

absoluturi moculoba da sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi

maCvenebeli.

sasaqonlo maragis absoluturi moculoba gviCvenebs, nebismieri

mocemuli momentisaTvis Tu ra moculobis maragi unda iyos firmaSi, rom

man Seuferxeblad imuSavos.

sasaqonlo maragis donis SefardebiTi maCveneblis gaangariSebis or

variants ganasxvaveben: maragtevadoba da saqonlbrunvis

uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT.

maragtevadobis maCvenebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc maragebis

procentuli Sefardeba saqonelbrunvasTan (maragi yovel aTas lar

saqonelbrunvaze).

saqonlbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT gaiangariSeba periodis (wlis, kvartlis da a.S.) bolosTvis arsebuli sasaqonlo maragis

moculobis SefardebiT mocemuli periodis saSualo erTdRiuri

saqonelbrunvis moculobasTan. is gviCvenebs sasaqonlo maragiT

uzrunvelyofili dReebis raodenobas.

sasaqonlo maragis moculobis sidide dakavSirebulia

saqonelbrunvis moculobasTan da sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, rac ufro

didia saqonelbrunva, miT ufro metia saqonelbrunvis uwyvetobis uzrunvelmyofi sasaqonlo maragi.

magaliTi: saqonelbrunvam Tvis ganmavlobaSi Seadgina 5 mln lari,

sasaqonlo maragi Tvis bolos udrida 2 mln lars. maragtevadoba am

SemTxvevisaTvis udris 0,4 mln lars (2:5=0,4). uzrunvelyofadobis

gaangariSebisaTvis aucilebelia ganisazRvros saqonelbrunvis saSualo

moculoba erT dReSi, romelic 5:30=0,16 mln laris tolia. amrigad,

74

saqonelbrunvis uzrunvelyofadoba sasaqonlo maragiT udris 13 dRes

(2:0,16=13).

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadoba warmoadgens ZiriTad

saanalizo maCvenebels sasaqonlo maragis Sefasebisas da gviCvenebs Tu

ramden dRes eyofa mocemuli sasaqonlo maragi firmas arsebuli

saqonelbrunvis moculobis pirobebSi, raTa Seuferxeblad imuSaos man.

sasaqonlo maragiT uzrunvelyofadobis saerTo maCvenebelis

gaangariSebasTan erTad aucilebelia aRniSnuli maCvenebeli ganisazRvros

saqonlis calkeuli saxeobisa da saqonlis jgufis anu sasaqonlo struqturis mixedviT.

rogorc cnobilia, sasaqonlo maragis aRricxva xdeba drois

romelime momentisaTvis. amitom drois gansazRvrul periodSi maragis

donis dasaxasiaTeblad gaiangariSeba saSualo sasaqonlo maragi saSualo qronologiuris formuliT:

,1

...2/1 11

n

ZZZZ n

l

sadac iZ aris sasaqolo maragi i -uri TariRisTvis;

n _ sasaqonlo maragis daregistrirebis TariRis ricxvi.

mocemul periodSi sasaqonlo maragis donis Sesafaseblad

gaiangariSeben sasaqonlo maragis saSualo maCvenebls mocemuli periodis mixedviT da gamoiyeneben saSualo sididis (ZiriTadad saSualo ariTmetikuli) gaangariSebis Sesabamis xerxs. kerZod, kvartalSi an ufro

xangrZlivi periodisaTvis saSualo sasaqonlo maragi SeiZleba

ganisazRvros rogorc saSualoTviuri maCveneblebis saSualo sidide.

magaliTi: sasaqonlo maragi firmaSi 1 ianvrisaTvis udrida 5 mln

lars, 1 TebervlisaTvis _ 6 mln lars, 1 martisaTvis _ 7 mln lars da 1

aprilisaTvis _ 6 mln lars. jer gaiangariSeba maragis saSualo Tviuri

moculoba. is ianvrisaTvis udris (5+6):2=5,5 mln lars; TebervlisaTvis _

(6+7):2=6,5 mln lars; martisaTvis _ (7+6):2=6,5 mln lars. Semdeg gaian-

gariSeba maragis saSualo moculoba pirvel kvartalSi, romelic udris

(5,5+6,5+6,5):3=18,5:3=6,2 mln lars.

savaWro firmis efeqtianobis yvelaze mniSvnelovan maCvenebels saqonelbrunvadoba warmoadgens.

savaWro sawarmoSi, marTalia, ganuwyvetliv xdeba saqonlis

wrebrunva, magram es procesi xorcieldeba ise, rom komerciul (savaWro)

firmaSi mudmivadaa SenarCunebuli saqonlis gansazRvruli gardamavali

75

maragi, romlis moculobac SeiZleba meryeobdes sxvadasxva faqtorebis

zemoqmedebis gamo. swored am process ewodeba saqonelbrunvadoba, romlis

Sefasebac SeiZleba moxdes ori ZiriTadi maCveneblis mixedviT.

pirveli maCveneblia saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare, romelic gviCvenebs,

Tu mocemul periodSi ramdenjer xdeba sasaqonlo resursebis ganaxleba,

anu ramdeni brunvaa Sesrulebuli am periodis manZilze.

is gaiangariSeba gansazRvrul periodSi wminda saqonelbrunvis

moculobis SefardebiT amave periodSi saSualo sasaqonlo maragis

moculobasTan:

saSZ

QW

,

sadac W aris saqonelbrunvadobis siCqare, anu brunvaTa ricxvi mocemuli

drois monakveTSi;

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba (lari);

Z _ sasaqonlo maragis saSualo moculoba mocemul periodSi

(lari).

saqonelbrunvis meore maCvenebelia erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi, anu dReebis is raodenoba, romelic saWiroa (daixarja) erT

brunvis gakeTebaze.

is gaiangariSeba mocemul periodSi saqonelbrunvis moculobis

gayofiT saqonelbrunvis siCqareze, anu brunvaTa ricxvze:

,W

QV

sadac V aris erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba dReebSi (mocemul periodSi);

Q _ saqonelbrunvis moculoba mocemul periodSi (lari);

W _ brunvaTa ricxvi mocemul periodSi.

sxvanairad, meore maCvenebels ewodeba sasaqonlo mimoqcevis dro, anu saqonelis mimoqcevis dro (V). is aRniSnavs dReTa im raodenobas,

romlis ganmavlobaSic saqoneli imyofeba sasaqonlo mimqocevis sferoSi

da gaiangariSeba mocemuli periodis sasaqonlo maragis saSualo

moculobis SefardebiT amave periodis erTdRiuri saqonelbrunvis

moculobasTan:

76

tQ

z

q

zV

.

magaliTi: Tu kvartalSi, romelic 90 dRes moicavs, saqonelbrunvis

moculobam 27 mln lari Seadgina da saSualo sasaqonlo maragi

kvartalSi udris 5 mln lars, maSin saqonelbrunvis moculoba erT dReSi

toli iqneba 0,3 mln laris (27:90+0,3), brunvis siCqare udris 5,4 brunvas

(27:5+5,4), xolo erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba _ 5 dRes (27:5,4=5).

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizis meTodebi

sabazro urTierTobis pirobebSi nebismieri firmis mTliani

sameurneo saqmianoba sakontraqto (saxelSekrulebo) urTierTobebs

efuZneba.

komerciuli saqmianobis (savaWro) firmaSi kontraqti (xelSekruleba) iuridiuli dokumentia, romelic gansazRvravs saqonlis yidva-gayidvis

urTierTobaSi Cabmuli mxareebis ufleba-movaleobebs. is gulisxmobs mxareebis mier kontraqtSi gaTvaliswinebuli pirobebis aucilebel dacvasa da Sesrulebas.

ganviTarebuli sabazro ekonomikis qveynebSi kontraqtiT

gaTvaliswinebuli pirobebis damrRvevi mxareebi isjebian ara marto

peniebis, jarimebisa da sxva sanqciaTa sistemiT, aramed TviT bazridan

gaZevebiT. yovelive aRniSnulTan erTad kontraqtis mniSvnelobas isic

zrdis, rom is SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc statistikuri

informaciis SesaniSnavi wyaro, radgan masSi aRiricxeba gasayidad

gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) da asortimenti,

saqonlis xarisxis maCveneblebi, fasi da saqonlis partiis mTliani

Rirebuleba. amasTan erTad, kontraqtSi ganisazRvra saqonlis miwodebis

pirobebi da vadebi.

aRniSnuli informaciuli masala saSualebas iZleva miwodebis

faqtobrivi Sedegebi Seudardes kontraqtiT (xelSekrulebiT)

gaTvaliswinebuls da gakeTdes Sesabamisi daskvnebi sakontraqto

valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis Sesaxeb.

sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis analizi iwyeba miwodebis

moculobis mixedviT kontraqtis Sesrulebis SefasebiT. meorenairad, mas

kontraqtis Sesrulebis koeficientsac uwodeben. is gaiangariSeba

formuliT:

77

k

f

q

qC

sadac C aris sakontraqto valdebulebaTa Sesrulebis done (koeficienti);

qf _ miwodebuli saqonlis faqtobrivi raodenoba;

qk _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis raodenoba.

kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulTan SedarebiT, saqonlis faqtobrivi

miwodebis gadaxris absoluturi zoma ganisazRvreba rogorc sxvaoba faqtiur da kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebul miwodebebs Soris:

.qqC kf

aRniSnuli formulebi gamoiyeneba im SemTxvevaSi, Tu saqoneli

aRiricxeba naturalur maCveneblebSi.

magram Tu kontraqtSi saqonlis miwodeba mocemuli da

gaangariSebulia RirebulebiT erTeulebSi, maSin aucilebelia mkacrad

iqnes daculi fasebis Sesadarisobis principi. am SemTxvevaSi gaiangariSeba

kontraqtis Sesrulebis indeqsi Rirebulebis mixedviT (C ) da

absoluturi gadaxra ( c )

,qp

qpC

kk

fk

sadac kp aris kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis sabiTumo fasi.

.kkfk qpqpc

gaangariSebis aRniSnuli meTodi ZiriTadad gamoiyeneba maSin,

rodesac kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebulia sxvadasxva saxeobis da

gansxvavebuli fasis mqone saqonlis miwodeba.

aRsaniSnavia, rom komerciul saqmianobaSi xSirad gaiTvaliswineba

saqonlis Semdgomi gayidva ufro maRali fasiT. amitom arasruli

miwodebis SemTxvevaSi firma izaralebs, armiRebuli sargeblis odenobiT.

armiRebuli sargebeli gaiangariSeba rogorc sxvaoba sacalo fasebSi

faqtobrivad miwodebuli saqonlis Rirebulebasa da kontraqtiT

gaTvaliswinebuli sabiTumo fasebiT gansazRvruli saqonlis Rirebulebas

Soris:

78

,qpqpC ksabfsaczar

sadac sacP aris faqtobrivi sacalo fasi;

sabP _ sabiTumo fasi.

im SemTxvevaSi roca mimwodebeli bevria, an aucilebelia meryeobis

intensivobis Sesaxeb obieqturi raodenobrivi monacemebi, iyeneben

variaciis koeficientis gaangariSebis meTods. misi gaangariSebis formula

aseTia:

,100

c

v

sadac aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra miwodebis saSualo donidan,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, gaangariSdeba formuliT:

,N

)( 2

i

sadac i aris miwodeba i –ur periodSi;

_ miwodebis saSualo done, romelic gaangariSebulia formuliT:

,

N

sadac N - periodebis ricxvia.

variaciis koeficienti SeiZleba icvlebodes 0-dan 100-mde, rac ufro

metia is, miT ufro araTanabaria saqonlis miwodeba.

saqonlis Tanazomieri miwodebis garda, kontraqtiT SeiZleba

saqonlis sicocxlis cikluri da sezonuri xasiaTiT gamowveuli cikluri miwodebis gaTvaliswineba. kerZod, wlis sxvadasxva sezonsa da saqonlis

sxvadasxva sasicocxlo ciklSi sxvadasxvanairia moTxovna saqonlis

miwodebis raodenobaze (moculobaze), rac Sesabamisad aisaxeba

kontraqtSi.

am SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia gaangariSebis ori xerxis gamoyeneba:

1. saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficientis gaangariSeba roca

kontraqtSi miTiTebulia calkeuli periodisaTvis miwodebis moculoba.

is gaiangariSeba formuliT:

79

, 1Ci

i

k

f

rit

sadac fi aris saqonlis faqtobrivi miwodeba drois i-ur monakveTSi;

ki _ kontraqtiT gaTvaliswinebuli saqonlis miwodeba drois i-ur

monakveTSi.

rac ufro axlosaa saqonlis miwodebis ritmulobis koeficienti

nulTan, miT ufro ritmulia miwodeba da piriqiT, rac ufro didia is, miT

ufro aritmulia miwodeba.

2. mocemuli periodis ganmavlobaSi faqtiuri miwodebis trendidan (miwodebis ciklurobis an sxva mudmivi cvlilebebis amsaxveli ZiriTadi tendenciisa) gadaxris Sefaseba. is arsebiTad emTxveva aproqsimaciis

koeficientis:

,100

k

t

iC

sadac ki aris faqtobrivi miwodebis saSualokvadratuli gadaxra

trendidan i-uri drois monakveTSi;

_ miwodebis mosworebuli mniSvneloba drois Sesabamis

monakveTSi (trendi), anu f(t), sadac t aris drois Sualedis nomeri.

gaTanabrebisaTvis gamoiyeneba erT-erTi droiTi funqcia (trenduli

produqciis xarisxi ganisazRvreba mravali maCvenebliT (maCvenebelTa

sistemiT) da sxvadasxva produqciis (saqonlis) xarisxis gansazRvrisaTvis

xSirad sxvadasxva maCvenebeli gamoiyeneba.

xarisxis zogadi, integraluri maCvenebeli ganisazRvreba, rogorc

saSualo ariTmetikuli sidide parametrebis balebidan, romelic

Sewonilia parametrebis rangebis mixedviT. am mizniT SeiZleba gamoyenebul

iqnes formula:

,

W

WR

Rn

i

i

n

i

ii

sadac R aris i-uri parametris bali (qula), romelic axasiaTebs saqonlis

80

Sesabamisobas teqnologiur da samomxmareblo moTxovnebTan:

Wi_ i-uri parametris wona (rangi);

n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.

bazris dinamikisa da meryeobis maCveneblebTan mWidrodaa

dakavSirebuli riskis maCveneblebi. cxadia, rom bazris ganviTarebis

xasiaTi, veqtori, siCqare, misi mdgradobis done da Camoyalibebuli

proporciebi mniSvnelovnad gansazRvravs biznesmenis (komersantis) risks.

riskis cnebaSi igulisxmeba komerciuli warumateblobis miRebis (gancdis) albaToba.

bazarze ganasxvaveben riskis sxvadasxva saxeobas, romlebic

SeiZleba dakavSirebuli iyos gakotrebis saSiSroebasTan, investiciebis

mTlian an nawilobriv dakargvasTan, dagegmili mogebis miuReblobasTan,

bazridan gamoZevebasTan an SeviwroebasTan.

sabazro koniunqturis statistikis umniSnelovanesi maCvenebelia

monopolizaciisa da konkurenciis donis Sefaseba. mas miekuTvneba

firmebis raodenoba da zoma (sidide), maT mier bazarze dakavebuli

xvedriTi wona, am niSnebis mixedviT maTi ganawileba. es saSualebas iZleva

ganisazRvros bazris tipi, aigos bazris tipologiis Sesabamisi matrica,

mieces Sesabamisi daxasiaTeba bazris dayofis (segmentaciis) process.

sasaqonlo bazris koniunqturis arapirdapir daxasiaTebad unda

CaiTvalos situacia, romelic Seqmnilia fasiani qaRaldebis bazarze.

aqciebze moTxovnis moculoba da misi kursi mniSvnelovnadaa

damokidebuli bazarze firmis (firmebis) mdgomareobasTan. amitom aqciebis

sabirJo indeqsebi SeiZleba ganxilul iqnes rogorc sabazro koniunqturis damoukidebeli indikatorebi.

sabazro situaciis koniunqturuli Sefasebebi

bazris koniunqturis analizis gansaxorcieleblad, marTalia,

gamoiyeneba specifikuri meTodebi, romlebic ZiriTadad eyrdnoba sabazro

situaciis xarisxobriv da atributul maCveneblebs, magram praqtikulad

yvela maTgani saeqsperto meTodis kategorias miekuTvneba.

sabazros koniunqturis gasazomad da Sesafaseblad gamoiyeneba e. w.

koniunqturuli indikatorebi. sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSi aseTi

indikatorebia fasebi, sasaqonlo maragi, saqmiani aqtiurobis maCveneblebi,

agreTve specifikuri xarisxobrivi da atributuli koniunqturuli

Sefasebebi, romlebic efuZneba specialistebis gamocdilebasa da

mosazrebebs.

koniunqturis indikatorebi analizis miznebidan da bazris

ganviTarebis Taviseburebebidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba iyos rogorc

absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi sidideebi.

81

bazari SeiZleba Sefasdes saqmiani aqtiurobis indeqsebiT, magram

gasaTvaliswinebelia calkeuli maTganis Taviseburebebi. magaliTad,

garigebaTa ricxvis mateba gayidvis moculobis zrdis gareSe ar SeiZleba

CaiTvalos bazris gamococxlebis maCveneblad da miuTiTebs sabazro

procesSi iseTi firmebis Cabmaze, romlebic dakavebulni arian mcire

operaciebiT (garigebebiT). maragis zrda, inflaciisa da deficitis

arsebobis pirobebSi, miuTiTebs krizisis dawyebaze, rodesac fasebis

matebis gamo mkveTrad mcirdeba moTxovna.

koniunqturul SefasebaTa sistemaSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia

bazrebis masStabebisa da tipebis maCvenebels. bazris moculoba

ganisazRvreba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis gayidvis moculobiT, agreTve

bazarze gasuli im firmebis raodenobiTa da zomiT (sididiT), romlebic

gamyidvelis rolSi gvevlinebian.

konkurenciisa da monopolizaciis niSnis mixedviT bazris tipebis

dasaxasiaTeblad igeba matrica (ix. qvemoT cxrili), romelSic Seitaneba

rogorcstatistikuri monacemebi, ise institucionalurad dadgenili da

saeqsperto SefasebebiT miRebuli informacia (monacemebi). cxrili

SeiZleba aigos bazrebis iseTi tipebis mixedviT, rogoricaa: monopoliuri, oligopoliuri da wminda konkurenciis bazari.

bazris tipologiis matrica

bazris tipebi

F

firmebis

raodenoba

saqonlis

saxeoba

fasebis

kontroli

arafasismieri

konkurencia

wminda

konkurencia

Zalian

bevri

standarti-

zebuli

ar aris

ar aris

monopolosturi

konkurencia

bevri

diferenci-

rebuli

viwro

CarCoebSi

reklama, ser-

visi da a. S.

oligopolia

ramdenime

standarti-

zebuli an

diferenci-

rebuli

SezRudu-

li

sxvadasxva

formebi

wminda

monopolia

erTi

unikaluri

mniSvnelo-

vani

konsiumerizmi

82

4. riskis faqtorebi bazarze da maTi Sefaseba

komerciuli saqmianobis ganxorcielebisas aucileblad

gasaTvaliswinebelia riskis faqtori, radgan igi komerciuli saqmianobis

Seucvlel komponents warmoadgens da mniSvnelovanwilad konkurentuli

brZolis arsebobiTaa ganpirobebuli.

rogorc cnobilia, riskSi igulisxmeba imis SiSi, rom firma an

komersanti miiRebs (ganicdis) danakargebs, ver miaRwevs Tavis miznebs,

dakargavs Tavis poziciebs bazarze, ver Seasrulebs sakontraqto

valdebulebas, ver miiRebs gaTvaliswinebul (dagegmil) mogebas da a.S.

riski, warmoadgens ra rTul sazogadoebriv movlenas, ganuyoflad aris

dakavSirebuli sabazro procesebTan, saerTo ekonomikur koniunqturasTan,

socialur-politikur mdgomareobasTan, erovnul TaviseburebebTan,

demografiul faqtorebTan da a.S. riski, imis gamo, rom miekuTvneba

albaTur kategorias, uSualo gazomvas ar eqvemdebareba, rac aZnelebs

riskis obieqtur statistikur gamokvlevasa da gansazRvras.

riski ganpirobebulia bazarze moqmedi mravali faqtoriT, romelTa

warmoSobis zusti winaswarmetyveleba da maTi sabazro procesebze

zegavlenis gansazRvra sakmaod rTulia. am SemTxvevaSi igulisxmeba

firmis rogorc Sida, ise garegan garemoSi moqmedi is faqtorebi, romelic

uaryofiT gavlenas axdens komerciul saqmianobaze da did saSiSroebas

uqmnis firmis ara marto efeqtianobas, aramed mis arsebobasac ki. amis

gamo gansakurebiT didi mniSvneloba eniWeba aseTi faqtorebis warmoSobis

winaswarganWvretas raime zomiT mainc, raTa miRebul iqnes Sesabamisi

gadawyvetilebebi maTi zegavlenis Tavidan asacileblad an uaryofiTi

gavlenis Sesamcireblad.

calkeuli riski (R) aRiwereba i-uri faqtorebis (riskis

kriteriumis) gansazRvruli ricxviT (n), romelic ar aRemateba 10-s.

calkeuli maTgani ranJirdeba riskis albaTobis donis mixedviT da xdeba

misi normireba, e. i. calkeuls miakuTvneben gansazRvrul bals (Bi), 1-dan

10-mde. amasTan, riskianobis donis gaTvaliswinebiT, calkeul aseT

faqtors eqspertuli gziT miakuTvneben Tavis wonas (Wi), romelmac unda

asaxos faqtoris gavlenis xvedriTi wona riskis mTlian sidideSi. wonebis

jami utoldeba 1-s. romelime faqtoris ararseboba fasdeba nulad.

faqtoris bali mravldeba Sesabamis wonaze. xolo Sedegebis jami

gansazRvravs mocemuli riskis sidides. es damokidebuleba gamoixateba

formuliT:

(4.5) n

i

i )RW(R

83

rac ufro axloa R 1-Tan, miT mcirea riski, xolo rac ufro axloa

10-Tan, miT ufro maRalia riski. amasTan, arsebobs riskis zonis cneba.

riskis zona warmoadgens sazRvrebs, romlebSic riski ar aWarbebs

gansazRvrul sidideebs. riskis sazRvrebi gamoixateba riskis saSualo

donis sididiT ( ).

riskis sazRvrebis skala mocemulia qvemoT cxrilSi:

riskis sazRvrebis skala

riskis

zonis

sazRvrebi

0

0,1-2,5

2,5-5,0

5,1-7,5

7,6-10,0

riskis

zonebi

urisko

zona

minimaluri

riskis

zona

amaRlebuli

riskis zona

riskis

kritikuli

zona

dauSvebeli

riskis

zona

riskis zonis operatiuli gansazRvra xorcieldeba marketinguli

matricis meSveobiT. am dros bazarze firmis poziciis dadgena xdeba ori

kriteriumis mixedviT. es kriteriumebia: bazris mdgomareoba da firmis

sakuTari SesaZleblobebi. aRniSnuli ori maxasiaTebeli gamoisaxeba

koordinantebis saxiT, romelTa gadakveTac aRniSnavs firmis

mdgomareobasa da, Sesabamisad, riskis dones.

garda amisa, riskis albaToba ganisazRvreba rogorc eqspertuli gziT _ analogebis analizis safuZvelze, agreTve riskis Teoriis daskvnebs dafuZnebuli meTodikis meSveobiT, (statistikur

gadawyvetilebaTa Teoriebs). zogierT mkvlevars riskis Sefasebisas Semoaqvs saqonlis

sargeblianobis funqcia (a. pervozvanski).

naSromSi `riski Tanamedrove biznesSi~, romlis avtorebi arian: p.

grabovi, s. petrovi da sxv. ganxilulia danakargebis albaTobis analizis

statistikuri meTodi lorencis mrudis meSveobiT da zogierTi donis

danaxarjebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis) sixSire formuliT:

(4.6)

sadac F aris zogadi donis danakargebis aRmocenebis (warmoSobis)

sixSire;

_ danakargebis konkretuli donis dadgomis SemTxvevaTa ricxvi;

R

saerT.N

NF

1

1N

84

_SemTxvevaTa saerTo raodenoba statistikur SerCevaSi,

romelicagreTve Seicavs warmatebiT ganxorcielebul operaciebs.

firmis finansuri mdgomareobis Sefasebis praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba e.

w. skoringuli modelebi (inglisuri sityvaa da niSnavs davalianebas), e. i.

firmebis gakotrebis albaTobis modelebi.

am modelebs Semdegi saxe gaaCniaT:

(4.7)

sadac aris qulaTa jami, romelic miekuTvneba firmis finansur-

ekonomikuri mdgomareobis calkeul i-ur paramets.

_ i-uri parametris mniSvneloba;

A _ calkeuli parametris wona an rangi, romelic ganisazRvreba

empiriulad;

n _ i-uri parametrebis ricxvi.

winaswar, empiriuli gziT dgindeba parametrebis jamis normativi ( );im

SemTxvevaSi, rodesac parametrebis jami normativze mcire an tolia ( >

) firmis finansuri mdgomareoba myaria da gakotrebis albaToba didi

ar aris; parametrebis jami im SemTxvevaSi,rodesac igi normativze mcirea (

< ), firmas emuqreba gakotreba.

5. bazris potencialis, tevadobis, gajerebulobis da

proporciulobis gansazRvra

nebismieri bazris potenciuri SesaZleblobebi udides gavlenas

axdens bazris rogorc arsebuli mdgomareobis ganmsazRvrel nebismier

parametrze, ise misi strategiuli ganviTarebis yvela mimarTulebaze.

bazris potencialis cnebaSi igulisxmeba sawarmoo da

samomxmareblo Zalebis prognozuli erToblioba, romelic ganapirobebs moTxovnisa da miwodebis sidides (moculobas).

sawarmoo potenciali aris mocemul periodSi (weliwadSi)

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebis is moculoba, romelic firmas

(firmaTa jgufs, mocemuli regionis firmaTa erTobliobas) SeuZlia

waradginos bazarze sawarmoo faqtorebis maqsimaluri efeqtianobiT

gamoyenebis pirobebSi. misi sawinaaRmdegoa samomxmareblo potenciali,

romelic gulisxmobs bazris SesaZleblobas, gansazRvruli periodis

manZilze (weliwadSi) Caylapos (iyidos) saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

gansazRvruli moculoba.

amasTan, aRsaniSnavia, rom sawarmo potencialis Sefaseba da analizi myidvelebis interesTa, xolo samomxmareblo potenciali

gamyidvelebis interesTa wres miekuTvneba, ramdenadac saqonlisa da

saerT.N

n

i

1iXAZf

fZ

fZ

normZ

fZ

normZ

fZnormZ

85

momsaxurebis bazris potencialis realizaciis Sedegs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani) moTxovnis dakmayofileba, sasaqonlo da momsaxurebis

masis mimoqcevis sferoSi CarTva da misi moxmarebis sferoSi gadasvla

warmoadgens. sayuradReboa is faqtic, rom bazris potencialis cneba faqtobrivad, ufro farToa, vidre is sabazro koniunqturis statistikaSia

warmodgenili. saqme isaa, rom bazris saerTo potencials miekuTvneba:

safinanso-sakredito potenciali, sasaqonlo mimoqcevisa da momsaxurebis

sferos materialur-teqnikuri baza da masSi dasaqmebuli muSakebi. bazris

potencialis Sefasebis mizani ki calkeuli firmebis sabazro

SesaZleblobaTa daxasiaTebaSi mdgomareobs.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazris potencialis gaangariSeba warmoebs Semdegi TanmimdevrobiT: ganisazRvreba sawarmoo da

samomxmareblo erTeulTa raodenoba, gaiangariSeba xvedriTi simZlavris maCveneblebi warmoebisa da moxmarebis Sesabamisad. gaangariSebaSi

(formulaSi) Seiyvaneba miwodebisa da moTxovnis elastikurobis maCveneblebi fasebze, Semosavlebsa da bazris sxva faqtorebze damokidebulebiT, SeiZleba aseve gamoiyos bazris is xvedriTi wona, romelic firmis gaangariSebiT konkurentebs rCebaT. gaangariSebaSi aseve

SeiZleba Setanil iqnes maCveneblebi, romlebic zRudaven an afarToveben warmoebisa da moxmarebis moculobas.

bazris sawarmoo potenciali ganisazRvreba formuliT:

(4.8)

sadac aris bazris potenciali;

_ warmoebis erTeulebi;

_ sawarmoo erTeulis simZlavris maCveneblebi;

_ moTxovnis an miwodebis elastikuroba;

_ potencialis sxva faqtorebi da elementebi;

n _ warmoebis an moxmarebis erTeulTa ricxvi.

vrceli saxiT sawarmoo potencialis (sasaqonlo miwodebis

potencialis) gaangariSeba mocemul periodSi SeiZleba moxdes Semdegi

formuliT:

, (4.9)

sadac aris bazris sawarmoo potenciali, anu saqonlis moculoba,

romelic SeiZleba warmoebul iqnes da miewodos bazars

gansazRvruli periodis ganmavlobaSi;

_ firma an firmaTa jgufi, romlebic awarmoeben -ur

saqonels (momsaxurebas);

_ firmis an firmaTa jgufis saSualo simZlavre -uri

n

i

jxii FZWNP )(b

bP

iN

iW

xZ

jF

CBKETRDWNPn

i

koefelastpmatiiii )******( ...s.m.

s.m.P

Ni i

Wi i

86

saqonelis gamoSvebaze;

_ sawarmoo simZlavreebis datvirTvis saSualo done;

_ resursebiT uzrunvelyofis done, romelic aucilebelia

sawarmoo programis realizaciisaTvis (SesrulebisaTvis);

_ sabiTumo fasebis cvlilebaze Sesworeba, sadac

_fasebis matebis tempia, xolo _ produqciisa da

nedleulis miwodebis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT;

_ saqonlis konkurentunarianobaze Sesworeba;

B _ Sida sawarmoo moxmareba normativebis mixedviT;

C _konkurirebadi importi;

n _ i-uri sawarmoo firmaTa ricxvi.

praqtikaSi, SekveTebis portfelis informaciaze dayrdnobiT

SesaZlebelia sawarmoo potencialis Semdegi ufro martivi modelis

gamoyeneba:

(4.10)

sadac aris saqonlis (momsaxurebis) moculoba, romelic dagegmilia

gamosaSvebad i-ur sawarmoo firmaSi SekveTebis portfelis

Sesabamisad

_ firmaTa ricxvi, romlebTanac gaformebulia kontraqti -uri

saqonlis miwodebaze.

bazris potencialis gansazRvris mniSvnelobas zrdis is faqtic, rom

is umniSvnelovanes rols TamaSobs myidvelobiTi (gadaxdisunariani)

moTxovnis SeswavlaSi.

samomxmareblo potenciali xasiaTdeba bazris tevadobiT. Ges

maCvenebeli, marTalia, axlos dgas moTxovnis moculobasTan, magram

mTlianad ar aris gaigivebuli masTan.

bazris tevadoba warmoadgens saqonlis im raodenobas (Rirebulebas),

romelic SeuZlia Caylapos (gayidos) bazarma garkveul pirobebSi drois

romelime monakveTSi.

bazris tevadoba zogjer ganisazRvreba moTxovnis msgavsad,

moTxovnis mravalfaqtoruli prognozuli modelis meSveobiT. es

gaangariSeba albaTuri, xSirad mravalvariantuli xasiaTis matarebelia.

bazris tevadobis gaangariSebis meore meTodi _ multiplikaciur-aditiuri modeli _ warmoadgens ZiriTads normatiul da eqspertul

Di

Ri

.. * pelstymatp ET

matpT . elastpE .

K

n

l

elastppmatlj BETqP .**p

jiq

n j

87

maCveneblebSi. igi universaluria da gamoiyeneba rogorc warmoebis

saSualebaTa, ise moxmarebis sagnebis samomxmareblo bazrebisaTvis.

bazris tevadoba ganisazRvreba konkretuli saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis calkeuli lokaluri bazrebis WrilSi. bazris tevadoba am

SemTxvevaSi ganisazRvreba formuliT:L

, (4.11)

sadac bazris tevadoba (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis raodenoba da

Rirebuleba, romelic SeiZleba gaiyidos gansazRvrul periodSi);

_ i-uri momxmarebelTa raodenoba;

_ moxmarebis done (koeficienti) sabaziso periodSi, an i-uri jgufis

momxmarebelTa moxmarebis normativi (normativebi: teqnologiuri _

warmoebis saSualebebisaTvis, fiziologiuri _ kvebis produqtebisaTvis,

racionaluri _ arasasursaTo produqtebisa da momsaxurebisaTvis);

Z _ moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficienti fasebsa da Semosavlebze

damokidebulebiT;

V _ saqonlis normaluri sadazRveo rezervis (maragis) moculoba;

Q _ bazris gajerebuloba _ mosaxleobis saojaxo meurneobaSi

arsebuli saqonlis moculoba an firmebSi arsebuli warmoebis

saSualebaTa moculoba mocemuli periodisaTvis;

_ saqonlis fizikuri cveTa;

_ saqonlis moraluri cveTa;

R _ bazris gareT moTxovnis dakmayofilebis alternatiuli formebi

(moxmarebis naturaluri wyaroebi, Savi bazari);

C _ konkurentebis xvedriTi wona bazarze.

bazris gajerebulobis maCvenebeli damoukidebel rols TamaSobs

sabazro koniunqturis analizis dros, radgan zRudavs ra moTxovnas, igi

Zlier gavlenas axdens bazris ciklurobaze, bazris gajerebuloba

uCvenebs saqonliT uzrunvelyofis dones, romelic ganisazRvreba an

eqspertuli gziT, an saojaxo meourneobaTa SerCeviTi gamokvlevis

safuZvelze. xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlisaTvis gamoiyeneba

gaangariSebis sabalanso meTodi, romelic xorcieldeba Semdegi

formulis mixedviT:

, (4.12)

sadac aris saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) periodis bolos;

_ arsebuli saqonlis raodenoba periodis dasawyisSi;

R _ SeZenili saqonlis raodenoba (moculoba) mocemul periodSi;

C _ gasuli saqonlis raodenoba mocemul periodSi, romelic moxda

saqonlis (xangrZlivi moxmarebis) fizikuri da moraluri cveTis gamo.

CR)ddQ(V)ZS(Pn

i

i mfR

RP

iS

fd

md

CRQQ b

bQ

Q

88

am SemTxvevaSi gaTvaliswinebul unda iqnes, rom saqonlis gasvla

gaiangariSeba xangrZlivi moxmarebis saqonlis samsaxuris saSualo

xangrZlivobis normativebis safuZvelze.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis bazari warmoadgens ra rTul, mraval-

struqturul kompleqss, misi ganviTareba (cvlileba) sabazro

urTierTobis sxva komponentebTan kavSirSi mimdinareobs.

proporciuloba, e. i. bazris sxvadasxva elements Soris

optimaluri Sefardeba, bazris sijansaRisa da misi Tanmimdevruli normaluri ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) umniSvnelovanesi pirobaa, xolo bazris Semadgeneli elementebis disproporciuloba da deformaciuli cvlilebebi Zlier arTulebs sabazro urTierTobebs da bazars

araefeqturs xdis. aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, bazris makro da mikroproporciebis

Seswavla sabazro koniunqturis statistikis mniSvnelovan da aqtualur amocanas warmoadgens. amasTan, sabazro koniunqturis statistikam ara

marto konstatacia (fiqsireba) da Sefaseba unda gaukeTos bazarze

Seqmnil proporciebs, aramed unda daaxasiaTos kidec proporciaTa

cvlilebis tendenciebi da gaanalizos struqturuli cvlilebebi (Zvrebi).

bazris proporciulobis kvlevis statistikuri aparati Seicavs

analizis Semdeg instrumentebs: sabalanso meTodi, struqturisa da koordinaciis SefardebiTi sidideebi, SefardebiTi (komparatiuli) indeqsebi, elastikurobis koeficientebi da mravalfaqtoruli modelebis beta-koeficientebi.

elastikurobis empiriuli da Teoriuli koeficientebi ara marto avlens ama Tu im faqtorze moTxovnisa da miwodebis damokidebulebas,

aramed agreTve adgens gamovlenil damokidebulebaTa proporciulobasac,

radgan aCvenebs Sedegobrivi niSnis procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli

niSnis erTi procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebisas), xolo beta-

koeficienti, romelic gamoTvlilia regresis mravalfaqtoruli

gantolebis parametrebiT iZleva calkeuli strqturuli faqtorebis

gavlenis Zalis SeTanazomadobis SesaZleblobas.

struqturul analizSi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes

proporciulobis maCvenebelTa meryeobis (cvalebadobis) analizis meTodebi, maTi trenduli da regresiuli modelebi, analizis indeqsuri

meTodi, firmebisa da regionebis dajgufeba struqturuli maCveneblebis mixedviT da a.S.

bazris proporciulobis analizSi umTavresad gamoiyeneba

struqturis ori ZiriTadi SefardebiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wona, e. i. nawilis adgili mTelSi da Sefardebis koeficienti, e. i. erTi

erTobliobis ori movlenis uSualo Sepirispireba. pirveli uCvenebs im

adgils, romelsac mocemuli nawili ikavebs mTlian erTobliobaSi.

rogorc wesi, xvedriTi wona gamoiTvleba procentebSi e.i. movlenis 100

erTeulze da koeficientebSi movlenis erT erTeulze.

89

bazris proporciebis Seswavlisas farTod gamoiyeneba grafikuli meTodi, kerZod seqtoruli diagramebi. amosavali monacemebi gamoixateba

rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT erTeulebSi. RirebulebiTi

erTeulebis dros xvedriTi wonis sidide damokidebulia ara marto

moculobaTa proporciebze, aramed Sesaswavl erTobliobaSi Semavali

sasaqonlo erTeulebis fasebis Sefardebazec.

bazris proporciulobis analizi unda ganxorcieldes rogorc

statikaSi, ise dinamikaSi. xvedriTi wonis Sedarebisas gamoiTvleba Sefar-

debiTi maCvenebeli: xvedriTi wonis indeqsi. saboloo angariSiT, xvedriTi wonis indeqsi (zrdis tempi)

damokidebulia movlenis mocemuli nawilis da mTlianad movlenis

veqtorisa da siCqaris cvlilebebis Tanafardobaze. bazris proporciulobis gansakuTrebul maCvenebels miekuTvneba

komparatiuli indeqsi, romelic iZleva dinamikuri proporciebis

Sedarebis saSualebas.

komparatiuli indeqsi warmoadgens ori movlenis indeqsis (zrdis

tempebi) Sefardebas. magaliTad, samomxmareblo saqonlis gayidvis indeqsis

Sefardeba momsaxurebis gayidvis indeqsTan an sacalo saqonelbrunvis

indeqsis Sefardeba mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebis indeqsTan. Tavisi

arsiT komparatiuli indeqsi mosworebis koeficientis gaangariSebis erT-

erTi variantia.

tendenciebis, mdgradobis, xvedriTi wonis damokidebuleba da

proporciulobis sxva maCveneblebis Seswavla xorcieldeba Sesabamisi

statistikuri meTodebis meSveobiT, sadac saqonlis (bazris da a.S.)

xvedriTi wona ganixileba rogorc varirebadi SemTxveviTi sidide:

(4.13)

xvedriTi wonis variacia ganisazRvreba dispersiiT:

(4.14)

sadac aris varirebadi xvedriTi wona (magaliTad, mosaxleobis

sxvadasxva socialuri jgufebis mTlian danaxarjebSi momsaxurebaze

gaweuli danaxarjebis xvedriTi wona;

_ xvedriTi wonis saSualo mniSvneloba mTlian erTobliobaSi;

_ wonebi, romlebadac SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes erTobliobis

erTeulebis zomis maxasiaTeblebi (magaliTad, mosaxleobis

raodenoba TiToeul socialur jgufebSi).

rogorc cnobilia, proporciulobis gansazRvrisas arsebobs maCve-

nebelTa ierarqiuloba maTi mniSvnelobis mixedviT.

bazris proporciulobis umniSvnelovanes maCvenebels miekuTvneba

miwodebisa da moTxovnis Tanafardoba, romelic asaxavs bazris kanonis

)....( 21 ni XXXfd

n

i

i

n

i

i

2

i

F

F)dd(

id

d

iF

90

gamovlinebas da gansazRvravs bazris danarCeni kategoriebis ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) xasiaTsa da mis socialur da ekonomikur efeqtianobas.

damoukidebeli amocanaa momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva socialur-

ekonomikuri jgufebis moTxovnis Tanafardoba. saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

mTliani erTobliobis mixedviT mocemuli proporciis gazomvis erT-erT

xerxs warmoadgens moTxovnisa da miwodebis balansi, romelSic xdeba

myidvelobiTi fondebis (gadaxdisunariani moTxovnis) sasaqonlo

resursebTan da momsaxurebis potencialTan Sepirispireba. am gziT

gamovlenili saldo gamoiyeneba bazris disproporciis dasaxasiaTeblad

da Sesabamisi niSnebis (+ an _) arsebobis mixedviT dgindeba deficitis

arseboba an gasaRebis krizisi.

magram es xerxi Zneli gamosayenebelia calkeuli saqonlis bazrebis

proporciulobis Sesafaseblad, Tumca principSi SeiZleba ganisazRvros

eqspertuli gziTa da analogiuri meTodebiT myidvelobiTi fondebis jami,

romelic orientirebulia swored mocemuli saqonlis SesaZenad. Semdeg

amave sqemiT xorcieldeba misi Setoleba sasaqonlo resursebis

moculobebTan.

moTxovnis maxasiaTebel maCvenebelTa proporciuli damokidebuleba

faqtorul maCvenebelze SeiZleba gamoixatos elastikurobis

koeficientiT, romelic aCvenebs procentul cvlilebas faqtoruli

maCveneblis erTi procentiT gadidebisas (cvlilebebisas).

moTxovnisa da miwodebis proporciis Sefaseba saqonlis bazarze

koreqtirdeba miwodebis mTlian moculobaSi importis xvedriTi wonis

SetaniT gaangariSebaSi.

6. bazris ganviTarebis, meryeobis da ciklurobis tendenciaTa analizi

sabazro koniunqturis Sefasebisa da analizis centralur amocanas

misi ganviTarebis tendenciebisada TaviseburebaTa, agreTve mdgradobis Seswavla warmoadgens.

bazris ganviTarebis veqtoris da siCqaris gansasazRvravad aigeba maCveneblebis - bazris indikatorebisa da saqmiani aqtiurobis - dinamikuri

mwkrivebi. gamoiTvleba mocemul periodSi sabaziso, jaWvuri da saSualo

zrdis tempebi, agreTve mizanSewonilia gaangariSdes komparatiuli zrdis

tempebi urTierTganmapirobebeli faqtorebisaTvis _ gansakuTrebiT im

SemTxvevaSi, rodesac erTi maCvenebeli ufro swrafad an ufro nela

icvleba, vidre meore.

bazris ganviTarebis tendencia, TvalsaCinoebis mizniT, SeiZleba

gamoisaxos grafikulad. grafikze aRniSnuli doneebi an tempebi yvelazexSirad asaxavs

ganviTarebis uTanabrobas: daCqarebas, Senelebas, amaRlebebsa da

91

Cavardnebis naxtomebs. aseT pirobebSi mkafio tendenciaTa aRmoCena da

koniunqturis Sefaseba rTulia.

grafikze aRniSnuli doneTa meryeobebi SeiZleba moswordes sami

xerxiT, TiToeul maTgans Sesabamis situaciaSi Tavisi analizuri

Rirebuleba aqvs:

teqnikuri gaTanabrebis meTodi, rodesac grafikze vizualurad

tardeba Tanabarmoqmedi (gamTanabrebeli) xazi, pirdapiri an mrudi,

romelic mkvlevaris azriT, asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias

meqanikuri mosworebis meTodi (3, 5 da meti donis sriala saSualoTa

gaangariSeba, romelic asaxavs ganviTarebis tendencias an ciklurobas).

analizuri gaTanabrebis meTodi (trendis statistikuri modelis ageba).

aseTnairad gamovlenili mimarTuleba warmoadgens bazris ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) ZiriTadi tendenciis maxasiaTebels. igi agreTve SeiZleba

gmoyenebul iqnes prognozis gasakeTeblad, ufro zustad

eqstrapolaciisaTvis, e. i. Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis momaval periodSi

gasavrceleblad.

tendenciaTa Sefasebis teqnikuri meTodis Rirsebaa koniunqturuli

Sefasebis siswrafe da simartive, miuxedavad imisa, rom misi sizuste am

dros ar aris maRali. meqanikuri mosworebis meTodis moxerxebuloba ki

gaangariSebis simartiveSi mdgomareobs. rac Seexeba analizuri

gaTanabrebis meTodis (statistikuri trenduli modelis) upiratesobas, is

ufro maRali donis saimedobiT xasiaTdeba; garda amisa, igi saSualebas

iZleva moxdes trendis gaTanabrebis parametrebis ekonomikuri inter-

pretireba da sakmaod TvalsaCinod gamoxatavs tendenciasa da gadaxras

misgan.

ganviTarebis xasiaTis Sesabamisad, airCeva pirdapiri an mrude wrfis

Sesabamisi funqcia da aigeba Semdegi tipis trendis modeli:

(4.15)

sadac t aris periodis nomeri;

a _ gantolobis Tavisufali wevri;

bi _ gantolobis parametrebi.

teqnikuri da trenduli modelebis safuZvelze SeiZleba gamov-

lindes da bolo SemTxvevaSi gaizomos bazris ganviTarebis mdgradoba

droSi. teqnikuri xerxi ki mxolod imis saSualebas iZleva, rom vizualurad Sefasdes wrfidan (xazidan) mwkrivis faqtobrivi gadaxris done, romelic axasiaTebs tendencias da gakeTdes mdgradobis donis

atributuli Sefaseba: maRali, dabali da a.S. bazris dinamikuri ganviTarebis mdgradoba (an aramdgradoba)

vlindeba ZiriTadi tendenciidan (anu trendidan) faqtobrivi ganviTarebis

donis gadaxris xasiaTSi, rac saSualebas iZleva bazris ganviTarebis

n

i

i

ii tbaY

92

mdgradoba gaizomos aproqsimaciis koeficientis maCvenebliT.

gaiangariSeba trendidan empiruli doneebis saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:

(4.16)

sadac aris dinamikuri mwkrivis empiruli doneebis, saSualo

kvadratuli gadaxra trendidan;

dinamikuri mwkrivis - ri done;

dinamikuri mwkrivis mosworebuli - uri done;

n _ dinamikuri mwkrivebis - uri doneTa ricxvi.

saSualo kvadratuli gadaxris Sefaseba saSualo donesTan

gamoxatavs dinamikuri procesebis mdgradobis dones standartizebul

masStabSi (0-dan 100%-mde):

(4.17)

am maCvenebels ewodeba aproqsimaciis koeficienti. bazris tendenciebisa da meryeobis analizi sakmaod Sromatevadi

procesia, romelic moiTxovs Sesabamisi informaciis mopovebas, dinamikuri

mwkrivebis agebas, ganawilebis mwkrivebis Sedgenas, statistikur gaanga-

riSebasa da statistikur gaangariSebaTa ganxorcilebas kompiuteruli

teqnologiebis gamoyenebiT.

sabazro koniunqturis analizis praqtikaSi farTo gamoyeneba pova

tendenciurma gamokiTxvebma, romlebic faqtobrivad eqspertuli gamokvlevis variantia. swored mis safuZvelze muSavdeba koniunqturuli

testebi, romelic warmoadgens bazarze Camoyalibebuli cvlilebis

(ganviTarebis) tendenciis sami SesaZlo Sefasebis saSualo

ariTmetikuls:zrdis, stabilurobis da Semcirebis (Cavardnis), da

TiToeul maTgans miakuTvneben Sesabamis balebs. Sedegad miiReba bazris

ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) tendenciaTa ganzogadebuli Sefaseba.

bazris meryeobis maCvenebelTa Sefasebebi statikaSi, rogorc geog-rafiuli, ise ekonomikuri sivrcis mixedviT, xorcieldeba variaciis

koeficientis meSveobiT Semdegi formulis safuZvelze:

, (4.18)

sadac aris saSualo kvadratuli gadaxra:

(4.19)

n

yyn

i

ti

yy ti

2)(

ti yy

iy i

ty i

i

.100y

K tyy

a

100

y

V

y

n

i

i

n

i

ii

F

Fyy 2)(

93

sadac aris - ur erTeulTa ricxvi (sawarmo);

- uri erTeulis zomis maxasiaTebeli wona (saqonelbrunva, mosaxleobis

ricxovnoba da a. S.);

_ -uri sawarmos bazris parametri;

_ parametris saSualo mniSvneloba (saSualo done), gaiangariSeba

Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikulis mixedviT:

(4.20)

im SemTxvevaSi, roca SeuZlebelia Sewonvis ganxorcieleba, an roca

struqtura met-naklebad erTgvarovania, dasaSvebia mivmarToT arapiradpir

daxasiaTebas an gamoviyenoT Seuwonavi saSualoebi.

bazars, rogorc erTiani ekonomikuri sivrcis ganviTarebaSi

(cvlilebaSi), aseve nebismieri lokaluri bazris ganviTarebaSi

(cvlilebaSi), SeiZleba gamovlindes gansazRvruli ganmeoradoba,

cikluroba, romelic ganpirobebulia bazris rogorc Sida TvisebebiT, ise

garegani mizezebiT (faqtorebiT).

ganasxvaveben Sidawliur, sezonur ciklurobas da mravalwlian ciklurobas.

bazris Sidawliuri cikluroba, Cveulebriv, sezonuri xasiaTisaa.

misi gamovlena SesaZlebelia sezonurobis indeqsebiT, meqanikuri

mosworebis meTodebiT, analizuri gantolebebiT da ufro xSirad furies

formuliT:

(4.21)

sadac t aris sidide, romelic gansazRvravs furies formulis

(`garmonikis~) rigis nomers;

, da _ parametrebi, romlebic ganisazRvreba umcires

kvadratTa meTodiT;

R _ furies formulis rigebis (`garmonis~) ricxviT, romelic

tolia 1, 2 da a.S.

sezonuri ciklebis analizis procesSi gamoiricxeba SemTxveviTi

ryevebi (am mizniT calkeuli periodisaTvis gaiangariSeba mravalwliani

saSualo) da trendi, romelic axasiaTebs ganviTarebis (cvlilebis)

ZiriTad tendencias, e. i. yvela faqtobrivi done mosworebulia.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis sezonuri ryevebi bazris ganviTarebis

(cvlilebis) mniSvnelovan komponents Seadgens. sezonuri ciklurobis

Zala SeiZleba gaizomos Cveulebrivivariaciis koeficientiT, agreTve

n i

iF i

y i

y

y .

n

i

i

n

i

ii

F

FY

m

R

RR0 )RtsinbRtcosa(ay

oa Ra Rb

94

trendis gamoricxvis gaTvaliswinebiT (aproqsimaciis koeficientis analogiurad).

bazris cikluroba agreTve dakavSirebulia saqonelTa sasicocxlo

ciklebTan, romelic sabazro meqanizmis ganuyofeli komponentia.

mocemuli movlena Seiswavleba marketinguli gamokvlevis procesSi, magram

igi agreTve warmoadgens statistikuri modelirebisa da prognozirebis

obieqts.

saqonlis sasicocxlo ciklebis sxvadasxva etapebi _ saqonlis bazarze gayvana, zrda, simwife da Cavardna SeiZleba modelirebul iqnes Sesabamisi konfiguraciis mrudiT, ufro xSirad paraboloiduriT.

ciklebis cvla sabazro ekonomikis erT-erTi umniSvnelovanesi

Tvisebaa. aRmavloba iwvevs gajerebas, gasaRebis krizissa da depresias,

romelic, Tavis mxriv, gadadis gamococxlebaSi da cikli meordeba

mravaljer.

harvardis skolis klasikuri ciklebi Semdegnairi xasiaTisaa

(sasaqonlo bazris mixedviT):

depresia; sasaqonlo bazris aqtiuroba sustdeba, fasebs gaaCniaT

Semcirebis tendencia;

gamococxleba; sasaqonlo warmoebasa da vaWrobaSi iwyeba zrda;

aRmavloba; sasaqonlo bazarze saqmiani aqtiurobis tempi maRldeba,

fasebi ganagrZoben zrdas;

inflacia; warmoebisa da vaWrobis zrdis SeCereba, saqonlis fasebi

anelebs zrdas;

krizisi; samrewvelo da savaWro saqmianoba kvdeba (iyineba),

kontraqtebi ara umcires 50 %-isa ar realizdeba, miwodeba ar

nazRaurdeba, izrdeba sasaqonlo maragi, fasebi ecema.

cnobili amerikeli ekonomisti k. mitCeli gamoyofs oTx koniun-

qturul cikls: gamococxleba, aRmavloba, krizi, likvidacia. aRniSnuli ciklebi moqmedebas iSviaTad avlenen `wminda saxiT~,

TaviaTi sisrulisa da Tanmimdevrobis mixedviT.

ciklurobis gamovlenis meTodika SemdegSi mdgomareobs. kerZod,

airCeva is sabazro maCveneblebi, romlebic ufro met ryevadobas avlenen

da igeba maTi dinamikuri mwkrivebi xangrZlivi periodisaTvis. TiToeul

maTganSi gamoiricxeba trendi, romelic asaxavs zrdis an Semcirebis

erTian tendencias (`saukunovani moZraoba~), agreTve sezonuri meryeobebi.

narCeni mwkrivebi ki, romlebic asaxaven marto koniunqturul an wminda

SemTxveviT ryevebs, standartizdeba, e. i. moiyvaneba erT mniSvnelamde, rac

uzrunvelyofs maT Sesadarisobas. Semdeg dgindeba maCvenebelTa

sinqronuloba da urTierTkavSiri (korelaciis koeficientebis

gaangariSebis meSveobiT). mravali kavSiris ganzomilebis uzrunvelyofa

miiRweva maCvenebelTa erTgvarovan klasterul jgufebad dayofiT.

grafikze klasteruli Sefasebebis gadatanam unda aCvenos ZiriTadi

95

sabazro procesebis cvlilebis Tanmimdevroba da koniunqturuli

ciklebis fazebis mixedviT maTi moZraoba.

maRalganviTarebuli qveynebis ekonomikur literaturaSi

damuSavebulia mravalfaqtoruli statistikuri prognozuli modeli,

romelmac ekonomikuri barometris saxelwodeba miiRo. masSi Setanilia

bazris ganviTarebis donis maxasiaTebel faqtorTa nakrebi.

7. moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikurobis gazomvis statistikuri

meTodebi

moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens specifikur

sabazro movlenas da ganpirobebulia bazris kanonis moqmedebiT.

moTxovnis elastikurobis arsi mdgomareobs imaSi, rom igi

gansakuTrebiT moqnili da cvalebadia sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri faqtorebis, gansakuTrebiT fasebisa da fuladi Semosavlebis zemoqmedebis gamo.

analogiuri Tvisebebis matarebelia sasaqonlo miwodeba, romelic

mgrZnobiared reagirebs fasebis cvlilebebze.

garegani faqtorebis zegavlenaze miwodebisa da moTxovnis

mgrZnobiarobis fenomens swavlulma ekonomistebma jer kidev XIX

saukuneSi miaqcies yuradReba. kerZod, frangma mecnierma o. kurnom

gamoTqva mosazreba, rom garkveuli azriT, moTxovna warmoadgens fasebis

funqcias. es idea ganaviTara ingliselma mkvlevarma a. marSalma, romelmac

igi formulis saxiT Camoayaliba:

D=f(p) (4.22)

sadac D aris moTxovna;

P _ fasi.

magram mkvlevrebma maSinve miaqcies yuradReba imas, rom moTxovna

calkeul saqonelze damokidebulia ara marto am saqonlis fasze, aramed

sxva saqonlis fasebzec. XIX saukunis 80-ian wlebSi Sveicarielma

swavlulma ekonomistma l. valrasma kurnos pirveladi gantolebis

safuZvelze wamoayena moTxovnis elastikurobis Tavisi varianti, romelic

gamoxata Semdegi formuliT:

(4.23)

sadac aris moTxovna saqonelze;

_ X saqonelis fasi;

_ danarCeni saqonlis fasebi.

aRsaniSnavia, rom am ideaze dafuZnebuli jvaredini elastikurobis

Teoria kurno-marSalis Sexedulebebi SemdgomSi ganviTarebuli iqna sxva

mkvlevarTa mier, romlebmac elastikurobis cnebaSi Semoitanes

Semosavlis faqtori.

)P,...P,P,P,P(fd n321xx

xd X

xP

n1 P...P

96

`ekonomiksis~ avtori p. samuelsoni moTxovnis elastikurobas

fasebze damokidebulebiT ganixilavs, rogorc Sesyiduli saqonlis

raodenobis reaqciis dones sabazro fasebis meryeobaze.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis elastikuroba warmoadgens reagirebas

bazarze momxdar socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebis cvlilebaze.

elastikurobis zoma statistikurma mecnierebam gansazRvra iseTi

raodenobiTi maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: elastikurobis koeficienti.

elastikurobis koeficianti aris erTi niSnis (Sedegobrivi)

procentuli cvlileba meore niSnis (faqtoruli) erTi procentiT

gadidebisas (cvlilebisas).

a. marSalma gamoiyvana elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis

formula Semdegi saxiT:

(4.24)

sadac aris moTxovnis mateba

_ faqtoruli niSnis mateba;

y _ moTxovnis sabazo maCvenebeli;

x _ faqtoruli niSnis sabazo maCvenebeli.

zogjer arniSnuli formula gamoisaxeba SefardebaTa warmoebulis

saxiT, zogjer ki _ procentuli cvlilebebis saxiT:

, , (4.25)

rodesac vlindeba infraelastikurobis movlena, saqoneli

iTvleba mcireelastikur an araelastikur saqonlad; rodesac

aRiniSneba ultraelastikurobis movlena da saqoneli warmoadgens

elastikurs an Zlier elastikurs; rodesac , maSin saqoneli

sustelastikuria (e. w. unitaruli moTxovna). am SemTxvevaSi, rogorc wesi,

fasebis Semcirebas ar mosdevs komerciuli efeqti (fuladi amonagebis

zrda).

elastikurobis koeficientis dadebiTi mniSvneloba niSnavs, rom

faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas moTxovna izrdeba, e. i. kavSiri pirdapiria

(aseTi damokidebuleba aRiniSneba Semosavlebze damokidebulebiT);

uaryofiTi mniSvneloba ki niSnavs, rom faqtoruli niSnis gadidebisas

moTxovna mcirdeba, e. i. kavSiri arapirdapiria (aseTi damokidebuleba

aRiniSneba fasebze damokidebulebiT (igulisxmeba fasebis zrda).

amasTan, mxedvelobaSi unda iqnes miRebuli, rom arsebobs zogierTi

saqoneli, romelic sxvanairad reagirebs fasebisa da Semosavlebis

cvlilebaze. magaliTad, Semosavlebis zrda iwvevs moTxovnis Semcirebas

dabali samomxmareblo Tvisebebis (xarisxis) saqonelze.

praqtikul gaangariSebebSi elastikurobis koeficienti SeiZleba

gamoiTvalos dinamikaSi da statikaSi, e. i. asaxavs moTxovnis cvlilebas

y

x

x

y

y

x

x

y:

x

y

x

x

y

y

1

1

1

97

an droSi, an erTobliobis romelime sxva erTeulTan SedarebiT

(magaliTad, moTxovna sxvadasxva samomxmareblo jgufebis, sxvadasxva

regionebis da a. S.). pirvel SemTxvevaSi formula transformirdeba

Semdegnairad:

, (4.26)

sadac da aris saSedego niSani (moTxovna) Sesabamisad sabaziso da

mimdinare periodSi;

da _ faqtoruli niSani Sesabamisad sabaziso da mimdinare

periodSi.

statikaSi (Cveulebriv dajgufebis monacemebiT) es formula

Semdegnairad gamoiyureba (calkeuli i-uri jgufis mixedviT):

, (4.27)

sadac aris moTxovna dasaxasiaTebel jgufSi;

_ moTxovna winamorbed jgufSi;

, , _ faqtoruli niSnebi n-ur jgufSi, winamorbed n-1-ur

jgufSi.

yvela jgufis mixedviT elastikurobis saerTo koeficienti

gaiangariSeba rogorc Sewonili saSualo ariTmetikuli:

, (4.28)

sadac aris elastikurobis saSualo koeficieti;

_ elastikurobis jgufuri koeficienti;

_ calkeulii-uri jgufebis wonebi;

_ jgufebis ricxvi (pirvelis garda).

elastikurobis jgufuri koeficientis gaangariSebas didi

mniSvneloba aqvs, radgan sxvadasxva socialur-ekonomikuri jgufebis

moTxovna sxvadasxvanairad reagirebs erTsa da imave faqtorze. kerZod,

mcire Semosavliani momxmareblebisaTvis fasebis 1%-iT zrda iwvevs

moTxovnis mniSvnelovan Semcirebas, maSin, roca maRalSemosavlianma

ojaxebma SeiZleba saerTod ar gaakeTon reagireba fasebis aseT zrdaze.

jer kidev gasuli saukunis 80-ian wlebSi germaneli ekonomistis e.

engelis mier dadgenil iqna, rom ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad,

danaxarjebi kvebaze izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.

analogiuri kanoni, romelic dakavSirebulia sacxovreblis

danaxarjebis elastikurobasTan, formulirebul iqna XIX saukunis meore

ymatxmat TTx

xx

y

yy::

0

01

0

01

0y 1y

0x 1x

1

1

1

1 :

n

n

nn

nn

x

y

xx

yy

ny

1ny

nx 1nx

n

i

i

n

i

ii

W

W

i

iW

n

98

naxevarSi aseve germaneli ekonomistis a. Svabes mier, romlis Tanaxmadac,

ojaxis Semosavlebis zrdasTan erTad misi danaxarjebic sacxovrebelze

izrdeba absoluturad, magram mcirdeba SefardebiTad.

moTxovnaze fasis gavlenis veqtori ukudamokidebulebaSi imyofeba Semosavlis gavlenis veqtorTan. magram am wess ramdenime gamonaklisi aqvs.

jer erTi, elastikurobaze moqmedebs saqonlis sargeblianobis xarisxi

(done), anu misi adgili moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi. rac ufro mniSvnelovania

saqoneli moxmarebisTvis, miT ufro naklebelastikuria igi.

Tumca arsebobs movlena, wodebuli jifenis paradoqsad: ramdenad

ufro Zviria puri, miT ufro yiduloben mas. fasebis zrda, pirvel rigSi,

amcirebs moTxovnas maRalxarisxovan, magram ZviradRirebul im saqonelze,

romelic moTxovnilebaTa pirveli jgufis saqonelTa ricxvSi ar imyofeba.

fasebis zrdisas mas yiduloben naklebad, vidre es elastikurobis

moTxovniTaa gaTvaliswinebuli, xolo mis magivrad yiduloben pirveli

moTxovnilebis saqonels. es niSnavs, rom moTxovnaSi xdeba erTi saqonlis

Senacvleba meore saqonliT.

Senacvlebis efeqti vlindeba imaSi, rom fasebis Semcireba mas xdis

ufro maRal, xolo fasebis zrda _ ufro dabal konkurentunarians. amas

mivyavarT iqamde, rom, pirvel SemTxvevaSi, igi aviwrovebs sxva saqonels,

xolo meore SemTxvevaSi, TviTon ganicdis Seviwrovebas (gamodevnas) ufro

iafi saqonlisagan.

meore mxriv, vlindeba e. w. vebelenis paradoqsis moqmedeba. am dros fufunebis sagnebi iyideba ara maTi samomxmareblo Tvisebebis, aramed maTi

socialuri mniSvnelobis gamo, kerZod, prestiJulobis, modis da a.S.

ufro metic, cnobili amerikeli ekonomistisa da sociologis

maslous moTxovnaTa ierarqiaSi TviTdamkvidrebisa da TviTgamoxatulebis

moTxovnileba, mis mier SemoTavazebuli Teoriis mixedviT, moTxovnilebis

motivaciis piramidis mwvervalze imyofeba. es agreTve dasturdeba

samamulo praqtikiT. cnobili ekonomisti r. badueni Tvlis, rom jifenis

efeqti warmoSobilia siRaribiT, xolo vebelenis efeqti _ simdidriT.

inflaciis pirobebSi ufro saimedod iTvleba moTxovnis

elastikurobis modelireba fasebis SefardebiT donesTan

damokidebulebiT, romelic gamosaxulia saSualo SemosavliT:

, (4.29)

sadac D aris moTxovna

P _ fasi;

R _ momxmarebelTa saSualo Semosavali.

moTxovnis struqturis elastikuroba, fasismieri faqtoris zemoqmedebiT, erTi saqonlis mier meoris Seviwroeba atarebsjvaredini

elastiurobis saxelwodebas.

R

PfD

99

arsebobs misi gamovlenis sxvadasxva meTodi. ufro gavrcelebulia

jvaredini elastikurobis Semdegi empiruli koeficienti:

, (4.30)

sadac aris moTxovnis jvaredini elastikurobis koeficienti;

_ moTxovnis mateba x saqonelze;

_ moTxovnis mateba y saqonelze;

_ y saqonlis fasi;

_ x saqonlis fasi

elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis erT-erT naklovanebas

warmoadgens is, rom am dros xorcieldeba moTxovnaze moqmedi yvela

faqtoris ignorireba da iTvleba, rom moTxovnis cvlileba

ganpirobebulia mxolod erTi faqtoruli niSniT. maSin, rodesac

praqtikulad moTxovnis cvlilebaze erTdroulad mravali faqtori

axdens gavlenas. amasTan, moTxovnisa da sabazro sxva faqtorebis kavSiri,

rogorc wesi, arsebobs ara funqciuri, aramed albaTur-korelaciuri.

elastikurobis koeficientis maCvenebelTa gaangariSeba mWidrod

unda iyos dakavSirebuli urTierTkavSirebis modelirebasTan regresiis

wyviladi da mravalfaqtorul gantolebaTa meSveobiT. am SemTxvevaSi

marSalis elastikurobis empiruli koeficientis formula gardaiqmneba

alen-boulis elastikurobis Teoriul koeficientad. moTxovnisa da

fasebis urTierTkavSirze masobrivi monacemebis gamokvlevisas

elastikurobis koeficienti iRebs Semdeg saxes:

, (4.31)

xolo radgan aris , e.i. mixedviT pirveli

warmoebuli funqcia, romelic gamoisaxeba simboliT , maSin

elastikurobis Teoriuli koeficienti iRebs saxes:

(4.32)

sadac _saSedego niSnis gaTanabrebuli mniSvneloba, e. i.

damokidebulebis gamoxatuleba:

_ Sesabamisi funqciispirveli warmoebuli.

mocemuli formula saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros elastikuroba

mrudis calkeuli wertilisaTvis da misi ekonomikuri interpretacia

y

x

y

xy,x

P

P:

q

q

y,x

xq

yq

yP

xP

y

x

x

ylim

0x

x

y

x

0

lim)(xf

d

d

y

x X y

y

,xy

xy

xy

)(xfY

,y

100

momxmarebelTa TiToeuli jgufis moTxovnis elastikurobis daxasiaTebaSi

mdgomareobs.

Sedegobrivi da faqtoruli niSnebis saSualo mniSvnelobis

aRebisas, gansazRvruli iqneba saSualo elastikuroba. amasTan, praqtikaSi

gaTanabrebuli Sedegobrivi niSnis saSualo sidides Cveulebriv

cvlian Sedegobrivi niSnis empiruli mniSvnelobis saSualo sididiT ( ),

ramdenadac yx da mniSvnelobaTa jamebi unda daemTxves erTmaneTs. maSin

elastikurobis saSualo koeficientis formula miiRebs Semdeg saxes:

(4.33)

praqtikaSi faqtobrivad myidvelobiT moTxovnaze erTdroulad

mravali faqtori moqmedebs da TiToeuli maTgani ganapirobebs moTxovnis

elastikurobis gansazRvras. amitom aucilebelia ganisazRvros moTxovnis

elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi, romlebic ganTavisuflebuli

iqneba danarCeni faqtorebis gavlenisagan. am mizniT igeba regresiis

mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba, ufro xSirad ki wrfivi formis:

, (4.34)

sadac aris regresiis koeficienti;

_ faqtorebi.

Teoriulad elastikurobis `wminda~ koeficientebi gaiangariSeba

Semdegi formuliT:

(4.35)

moTxovnis damokidebuleba, rogorc wesi, arawrfivia. mravali

arawrfivi mravalfaqtoruli funqciebis an Sereuli modelebis gamoyeneba

ki sakmaod rTulia, magram regresiis gantolebis wrfivi formidan

advilad SeiZleba misvla xarisxobriv funqciasTan da imis damtkicebiT,

rom moTxovnis mudmivi elastikurobis kanoni SesaZlebelia gamoisaxos

Semdegi tipis gantolebiT:

, (4.36)

maSin SeiZleba aigos multiplikaciuri xarisxobrivi mravalfaqtoruli

modeli:P

. (4.37)

am SemTxvevaSi elastikurobis koeficienti udris regresiis

koeficients:

.

moTxovnis elastikuroba fasebze damokidebulebiT SeiZleba

ganisazRvros ara marto statistikuri aRricxvis monacemebis safuZvelze,

aramed momxmarebelTa gamokiTxvis safuZvelzec.

)xy(

y

y

y

xy

nnxx xbxbxbayn

...2211...1

1b

1x

,y

xb i

ii

2

x axy

n21

n1

b

n

b

2

b

1x...x x...xaxy

ii b

101

nebismier saqonelze moTxovnis elastikurobis koeficientis

gaangariSebis meTodisa da xerxis optimaluri arCeva komerciul firmaSi

unda moxdes mocemuli firmisa da bazris specifikuri pirobebisa da

arsebuli situaciis gaTvaliswinebis safuZvelze.

8. sabazro koniunqturis statistikuri prognozirebis meTodebi

sabazro koniunqturis analizis mizani ar amoiwureba bazarze

faqtobrivad Seqmnili situaciis fiqsirebiTa da sabazro procesebis

mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis gamovleniT. man agreTve unda uzrunvelyos

bazris ganviTarebis (cvlilebis), pirvel rigSi, moTxovnisa da miwodebis

dasabuTebuli prognozireba.

moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozireba sabazro procesebis mizez-Sedegobrivi kavSirebis, tendenciebisa da kanonzomierebaTa Seswavlis

safuZvelze momaval periodSi maTi ganviTarebis (cvlilebis) mecnierulad dasabuTebuli ganWvretaa.

prognozis gaangariSebis SedarebiT martiv meTods eqstrapolacia warmoadgens, e. i. rodesac xdeba warsulSi Camoyalibebuli tendenciebis

momaval periodSi gavrceleba, magram am meTods sakmaod seriozuli

naklovanebebi (SezRudvebi) gaaCnia. is ver iTvaliswinebs sabazro

situaciis ganmsazRvrel bazarze mosalodneli cvlilebebis albaTobas.

amasTan, isic unda aRiniSnos, rom prognozirebis sxva meTodebic

aucileblad iyenebs warsulSi miRebul informacias momavlis winaswar

ganWvretisaTvis. miuxedavad imisa, rom firmis garegani garemo, maT Soris

bazari, sul ufro amoucnobia, sabazro procesebs mainc axasiaTebs

garkveuli inerciuloba da SedarebiT mokle periodSi ZiriTad

tendenciebs inarCunebs. amis gaTvaliswinebiT eqstrapolaciis meTodis

gamoyeneba SedarebiT ukeTes Sedegs iZleva moklevadian prognozirebaSi, gansakuTrebiT ki bazris im segmentebSi, sadac SedarebiT naklebi

intensivobiTa da siZlieriT warmoiSoba miwodebaze da moTxovnaze

moqmedi faqtorebi.

amave dros, farTo da grZelvadiani prognozireba aucileblad

moiTxovs im mniSvnelovani faqtorebis warmoSobis albaTobis

gaTvaliswinebas, romelic gamoiwvevs sabazro situaciis cvlilebebs. imis

gamo, rom TiTqmis SeuZlebelia sabazro faqtorebis warmoSobis drois,

siZlierisa da sxva maxasiaTeblebis zusti gansazRvra, dasaSvebadaa miCneuli prognozirebis mravalvariantuloba.

sxvadasxva variantebis SemuSavebisas gaiTvaliswineba sabazro

pirobebis sxvadasxvanairi cvlileba da mis safuZvelze muSavdeba bazris

ganviTarebis (cvlilebebis) is gansazRvruli mimarTulebebi (orientirebi),

romelic unda iqnes miRweuli garkveuli periodisaTvis. amasTan, sabazro

procesebis prognozirebisas aucileblad gasaTvaliswinebelia

102

kompleqsurobis principi, romelic gulisxmobs bazris yvela ZiriTadi

parametrebis erTdroulad prognozirebas, radgan isini mWidro

urTierTkavSirSi imyofebian da erTmaneTs ganapirobeben.

prognozi Tavisi momcvelobis mixedviT SeiZleba iyos globaluri, regionuli da lokaluri, rac imas niSnavs, rom bazarma SeiZleba moicvas

mTeli mocemuli qveyana da sazRvargareTis erTi an ramdenime saxelmwifo,

mocemuli qveynis romelime lokaluri regioni, an mocemuli lokaluri

regionis nawili, romelzedac romelime firmaa gasuli.

prognozma SeiZleba agreTve moicvas romelime saxeobis

funqcionaluri bazari, rogoricaa: samomxmareblo saqonlis bazari,

firmaTa (sawarmoTa) bazari (samrewvelo daniSnulebis saqonlis bazari,

romelic daniSnulia sxva saqonlisa da momsaxurebis warmoebisaTvis, anu

warmoebis saSualebaTa bazari) da sxv.

sabazro koniunqturis prognozi agreTve gansxvavdeba winaswar-Wvretis vadebis mixedviT. amis Sesabamisad, prognozi pirobiTad iyofa

Semdeg saxeobebad:

operatiuli prognozi, romlis vadaa dekada, Tve, kvartali, naxevari

weli;

moklevadiani prognozi, romelic grZeldeba erTi wlis manZilze;

saSualovadiani prognozi, romelic moicavs 1-dan 5 wlamde periods;

grZelvadiani prognozi, anu perspeqtiuli prognozi, moicavs 5

welze met periods.

prognozi SeiZleba iyos:

wertilovani, rodesac prognozirebis Sedegi gamoixateba erTi donis

saxiT;

intervaluri da mravalfaqtoruli, rodesac Sedegi warmodgenilia

intervalis an varirebadi sididis saxiT.

prognozis sizuste damokidebulia:

sabazro procesebisa da faqtorebis amsaxveli im informaciis

utyuarobasa da sisruleze, romelic gansazRvravs bazris

cvlilebebs da ZiriTad tendenciebs;

bazris mdgomareobisa da qveynis ekonomikis doneze (radgan rac

ufro mdgradia bazari da Zlieria ekonomika, miT ufro zusti

prognozis gakeTebaa SesaZlebeli);

saprognozo modelis adekvaturobaze (anu modelis saxeobis sworad

SerCevaze);

prognozis gakeTebis teqnikuri SeiaraRebis doneze, programis

xarisxze, algoriTmebze da a.S.).

arsebobs prognozirebis sxvadasxva xerxi da meTodi, romelTagan

moTxovnisa da miwodebis prognozirebaSi ufro xSirad gamoiyeneba Semdegi:

103

analogiuri modelebi, rodesac prognozis gasakeTeblad gamoiyeneba

mocemul qveyanaSi an regionSi ukve arsebuli sabazro situaciis

maCveneblebi;

imitaciuri modelebi, rodesac realuri monacemebis magivrad

gamoiyeneba specialur programiTa da egm-is gamoyenebiT agebuli

modelebi. imitacia aris realuri sistemis adgilas modelis

dayenebis praqtikuli xerxi. am modelze eqsperimentiT SeiZleba

dadgindes, Tu rogor reagirebas moaxdens igi gansazRvrul sabazro

cvlilebebze an mdgomareobaze. es maSin, roca realobaSi amis

gakeTeba SeuZlebelia;

normatiuli, anu racionalizebuli prognozuli gaangariSebebi, roca prognozi keTdeba racionaluri biujetidan an moxmarebis

dasabuTebuli normebidan gamomdinare;

prognozireba eqspertuli Sefasebebis safuZvelze;

eqstrapolaciis meTodebi: dinamikuri mwkrivebis mosworebis

meqanikuri xerxebi, trenduli modelis ageba;

statistikuri modelirebis meTodebi (regresiis mravalfaqtoruli

gantolebebi);

prognozireba elastikurobis koeficientebis gamoyenebis safuZvelze.

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis saxeobebis mixedviT myidvelobiTi

moTxovnis statistikuri gamokvlevebisa da prognozirebis praqtikaSi

gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva tipis maTematikuri modelebi, romelTa SerCevisas

gaiTvaliswineba mocemuli bazris cvlilebebis (ganviTarebis) xasiaTTan

da kanonzomierebebTan misi Sesabamisoba.

moTxovna mTel rig arasasursaTo saqonelze ganisazRvreba

xarisxovani funqciiT, xolo moTxovnis saerTo kanonzomierebani xSirad

gamoisaxeba gompercis mrudiT. moTxovnaze Semosavlis gavlenis

Seswavlisas SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes logistikuri mrudi (sigmoidaluri mrudi). moTxovnis zrdis Caqrobis procesi maRali

Semosavlis mqone mosaxleobis jgufebSi gadasvlisas warmatebiT

gamoisaxeba naxevarlogariTmuli funqciiT.

xSirad sabazro situaciis prognozi keTdeba mravalfaqtoruli

modelirebis meSveobiT, am dros gauTvaliswinebeli faqtorebis

akumulirebisa da avtoregresiis aRmosafxvrelad dinamikuri mwkrivebis

safuZvelze agebul modelSi SeyavT drois faqtori:

(4.38)

aRniSnul SemTxvevebSi siZneles warmoadgens is, rom moTxovnis

ganviTareba (cvlileba) iSviaTadaa wrfivi (sworxazovani). xSirad misi

kanonzomierebani gamoixateba mrudwiruli (mrudxazovani) fuqnciebiT,

Tumca Sereuli mravalfaqtoruli modelis ageba erTob rTulia.

....~12211...1tbxbxbay ntxx n

104

imisaTvis, rom Tavidan aviciloT modelis wrfiuloba, xdeba misi yvela

wevris galogariTmeba, e. i. igeba mravalfaqtoruli gantoleba xarisxiani

an maCvenebliani funqciis mixedviT:

, (4.39)

,

prognozirebis mniSvnelovan moments warmoadgens prognozis saimedoobisA da sizustis Semowmeba. bolo etapze gaiangariSeba prog-

nozis Secdoba, anu misi faqtobrivi donidan gadaxra. prognozis xarisxis

sazomad gamoiyeneba maCvenebeli:

, (4.40)

sadac p aris damtkicebuli prognozirebis raodenoba, e. i. sworad

gakeTebuli prognozirebis raodenoba;

q _ daumtkicebeli prognozirebis raodenoba.

maSasadame, am wesis Tanaxmad, prognozis saimedoobis, anu verifikaciis Semowmeba xdeba misi faqtobriv SedegebTan Sedarebis meSveobiT.

magram Zalian mniSvnelovania Semowmeba ganxorcieldes ara

saprognozo vadis damTavrebis Semdeg, aramed TviT prognozis Sedgenis

procesSi.

am mizniT gamoiyeneba inversiuli verifikaciis meTodi, romelic

xorcieldeba retrospeqtuli prognozirebis gziT. es niSnavs, rom

prognozuli modelis sisworis Semowmeba xdeba ukve gasuli periodis

prognozis SedgeniT da misi faqtobriv monacemebTan SedarebiT.

aseve arsebobs teilis meTodi, romelic prognozis Secdomis

Sefasebis saSualebas saprognozo vadis dadgomamde iZleva. gaangariSeba

xdeba Semdegi formuliT:

, (4.41)

sadac Pt da At aris Sesabamisad koniunqturis Sesaswavli maCveneblis

tendenciis (cvlilebis) prognozuli da faqtobrivi mniSvnelobebi;

V _ prognozis saimedoobis maCvenebeli.

Tu V=0, maSin prognozi absoluturad zustia. Tu V=1, niSnavs, rom

prognozi axloa ubralo eqstrapolaciasTan, Tu V>1-ze, maSin prognozi

iZleva uares Sedegs, vidre mocemuli movlenis ucvlelad datoveba.

n21

n1

x

n

x

2

x

1x...x b...baby~

n21

n1

b

n

b

2

b

1x...x x...xaxy~

qp

pC

t

n

t

2

tt

A

)AP(

V

105

Tema 5

safinanso-sabanko statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

1. monetaruli da sabanko statistikis arsi da amocanebi; fuladi agrega-

tebi da maTi statistikuri Seswavlis meTodebi;

2. fiskaluri statistikis arsi da amocanebi; sabiujeto - sagadasaxado

Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis statistika; biujetis proficitisa da

deficitis gamovlenis meTodebi;

3. kreditis statistikuri Seswavlis maCveneblebi;

4. sadazRvevo bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi;

5. inflaciis donisa da dinamikis statistikuri analizi;

6. safinanso birJisa da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

7. savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi.

1. monetaruli da sabanko statistikis arsi da amocanebi; fuladi ag-

regatebi da maTi statistikuri Seswavlis meTodebi

monetaruli statistikis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mimarTulebaa qveynis

fuladi sistemis mdgomareobis Seswavla. fulis mimoqcevis statistikis

ZiriTadi amocanebia: fulis mimoqcevis asaxva da fulis gaufasurebaze

moqmedi faqtorebis Sefaseba, fulis mimoqcevaSi sezonuri ryevebis gan-

sazRvra, mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis balansis

analizi da a.S.

fulis raodenobrivi Teoriis pirveli warmomadgeneli gaxlavT

Sotlandieli ekonomisti iumi. es Teoria Semdegi tolobiT gamoisaxa:

k

qpQ

sadac Q - ekonomikis normaluri funqcionirebisaTvis fulis niSnebis

raodenobaa, q – saqonlis an momsaxurebis raodenoba, p- saqonlis an momsa-

xurebis saSualo fasi, k -fulis niSnebis brunvis siCqarea.

fulis saerTo masis gansazRvra mimoqcevaSi

fulis mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani raodenobrivi maCvenebelia fuladi masa,

romelic warmoadgens sameurneo brunvis momsaxure da saxelmwifos, kerZo

pirebisa da dawesebulebebis kuTvnili msyidvelobiTi da sagadasaxdelo

saSualebebis erTobliv moculobas.

gansazRvruli TariRisaTvis da gansazRvrul periodSi fulis mimoqcevis

raodenobrivi cvlilebebis analizisaTvis da agreTve fuladi masis

106

moculobis da zrdis tempebis regulirebis RonisZiebebis SesamuSaveblad

gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva maCvenebeli _ fuladi agregatebi.

mTliani fuladi masa SeiZleba warmovidginoT, rogorc fuladi agre-

gatebis erToblioba, romelSic yoveli momdevno agregati moicavs wina ag-regats. likvidurobis donis mixedviT TiToeul qveyanaSi arsebobs detalizaciis

xarisxiT gansxvavebuli, fuladi agregatebis sakuTari sistema.

fulad masaSi ganasxvaveben:

aqtiur fuls (mosaxurebas uwevs naRd da unaRdo brunvas);

pasiur fuls (dagroveba, rezervebi, naSTi sabanko angariSebze), romlTa

potenciuri gamoyeneba SesaZlebelia angariSsworebisaTvis.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis definiciebiT, fuladi agregatebi Semdegi

saxiT gamoiyureba:

MO Mo _ esaa naRdi fuli mimoqcevaSi. naRdi fuladi masa Sedgeba

mosaxleobis xelT arsebuli naRdi fulisagan, iuridiuli pirebis

salaroebSi fuladi naSTisa da sabanko dawesebulebebis sabrunav

salaroebSi arsebuli naRdi fulisagan.

mosaxleobaSi naRdi fulis arseboba imis Sedegia, rom fulis miReba da

daxarjva droSi erTmaneTs ar emTxveva. mosaxleobis naRdi fulis

raodenoba damokidebulia fuladi Semosavlebis moculobaze, maTi miRebis

sixSireze, saqonliTa da momsaxurebiT uzrunvelyofaze da a. S.

naRdi fulis arsebobas adgili aqvs organizaciebisa da dawesebulebebis

salaroebSi, maT mier sakaso operaciebis normaluri warmoebisaTvis.

fuladi agregati MMM1 = Mo+ depoziti moTxovnamde (angariSebi

moTxovnamde da saSualebebis naSTs dawesebulebebis, organizaciebisa da

sawarmoebis angariSebze).

fuladi agregati M1 asrulebs fuladi masis sididis dominirebuli

maCveneblis rols. saxeldobr, agregati M M1 axdens mTliani Sida

produqtis, erovnuli Semosavlis ganawilebisa da gadanawilebis,

dagrovebisa da moxmarebis realizaciis operaciebis momsaxurebas. am

maCveneblis statistikuri aRricxva uzrunvelyofilia imiT, rom fulis

mniSvnelovani masa gadis depozituri dawesebulebebis angariSebiT.

agregati M1 moicavs fulis brunvis yvela im saSualebebs, romelic

SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iqnes konversiis, winaswari gayidvebis gareSe an

romelime sxva finansuri operaciis gaangariSebebSi da xasiaTdeba didi

likvidurobiT. fuladi masis danarCeni maCveneblebi SeiZleba

gamoyenebuli iqnes gadasaxadebis saxiT, mxolod rigi Sualeduri

operaciebis Semdeg.

fuladi agregati M M2 = M M1 + uvado depozitebi. uvado depozitebi _ esaa

Semnaxvel da komerciul bankebSi iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis vadian

angariSebze (3 wlamde) narCeni saSualebebi. Tavisi SedgenilobiT M2

ramdenimejer aRemateba M M1 agregats.

107

fuladi agregati M M3 = M2 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis sxva

depozitebi (sadazRvevo polisebi, fizikuri pirebis anabrebi 3 welze meti

vadiT, bankebis rezervebi da a.S.).

fuladi agregati M M4 =M3 + saSualebebi fasian qaRaldebSi (aqciebi.

obligaciebebi, veqseli da a.S.)

fuladi agregati M M5 = M4 + iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis saSualebebi

ucxour valutaSi.

fuladi agregatebi agebulia maTi likvidobis klebadobis wesiT.

agregatebs Soris aucilebelia wonasworoba; sxvanairad dairRveva

fuladi mimoqceva.

saerTaSoriso standartebi iTvaliswineben 4-dan 7-mde fulad agregats.

sxvadasxva qveyanaSi fuladi masa nawildeba agregatebis sxvadasxva

ricxvebad. gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikaSi upiratesobas

aniWeben agregats, romelic aerTianebs naRd da depozitur fuls.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondi yvela qveynisaTvis gaiangariSebs saerTo

agregat M M1, romelic moicavs naRd fuls da Cekuri anabrebis yvela

saxeobas.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciiT gaiangariSeba:

viwro fuli (agregati M1 saSualebebi);

kvazi-fuli (uvado da saSemnaxvelo sabanko angariSebi da bazarze

formirebadi yvelaze likviduri finansuri operaciebi);

farTo fuli = viwro fuli + kvazi-fuli.

zemoT CamoTvlili fuladi agregatebi _ esaa samomento maCveneblebi,

gaangariSebuli periodis dasawyisisaTvis (bolosaTvis). mTeli rigi

gaTvlebisaTvis saWiroa agregatebis saSualo zomaze monacemebi periodis

ganmavlobaSi. amisaTvis gamoiyeneben martivi saSualo ariTmetikulis

formulas:

M I = i M (periodis dasawyisisaTvis) + i M (periodis bolosaTvis)/2.

saerTaSoriso praqtikaSi gaiangariSeba Sesabamisi fuladi agregatis wili

mTlian Sida produqtSi. es maCvenebeli iwodeba monetarizaciis

(monetizaciis) koeficientad da axasiaTebs realizebuli mSp-s im nawils,

romlis uzrunvelyofa xdeba Sesabamisi agregatiT: monetizaciis

koeficienti = i M / mSp.

magaliTad, Tu agregat MI-is Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan Seadgens

20%, maSin amboben, rom mSp-s 20% realizaciis uzrunvelyofa xdeba am

agregatiT.

monetizaciis koeficienti aris fuladi mimoqcevis mniSvnelovani

indikatori, ramdenadac misi donis Sefaseba SesaZlebelia mxolod

saerTaSoriso SedarebebiT. ganviTarebul qveynebSi monetizaciis

108

koeficienti (gaangariSebuli agregat M M2 safuZvelze) Seadgens 60-dan

80%-

mde.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris maCveneblebi

mimoqcevaSi fulis raodenoba damokidebulia Semdeg faqtorebze:

mSp-is sidideze;

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqareze.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqare xasiaTdeba ori maCvenebliT:

fuladi masis brunvis raodenobiT (br.r.);

erTi brunvis xangrZlivobiT (x.br.).

fuladi masis brunvis raodenoba ganisazRvreba mTliani Sida produqtis

sididis SefardebiT fuladi masis saSualo sididesTan (_

M ), e.i.:

br.r. = mSp/_

M .

brunvadobis koeficienti uCvenebs, saSualod ramdeni brunva ganaxorciela

fuladma masam wlis ganmavlobaSi. sxva sityvebiT _ wlis ganmavlobaSi

ramdenjer iqna gamoyenebuli valuta saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

Sesasyidad. brunvis ricxvis zrdisas matulobs fuladi masis mimoqcevis

siCqare. es aris fuladi masis siCqaris maxasiaTebeli pirdapiri

maCvenebeli.

erTi brunvis xangrZlivoba gaiangariSeba dReebSi, (D) periodSi sabanko

dReebis ricxvis SefardebiT brunvis raodenobasTan.

br. x. = D/br. r.

saerTaSoriso standartebiT, weliwadSi sabanko dReebis raodenoba tolia

360 dRis, kvartalSi _ 180 dRis, TveSi _ 30 dRis. Ees maCvenebeli

axasiaTebs ramden dReSi ganxorcielda fuladi masis erTi brunva. Tu

dReebis raodenoba mcirdeba, es niSnavs imas, rom erTi da igive

moculobis

mTliani Sida produqtis momsaxurebisaTvis saWiroa naklebi dReebi. es

brunvis siCqaris uku maCvenebelia.

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba iwvevs misi brunvidan

amoRebas (mimoqcevaSi gaSvebis), romelic ganisazRvreba formuliT:

M = (br. x1 _ br. x0) x mSp/D,

sadac, mSp/D _ saangariSo periodSi mTliani Sida produqtis erTdRiuri

realizaciis sididea.

109

fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris Seswavlisas gansakuTrebiT mniS-

vnelovania naRdi fulis mimoqcevis siCqaris analizi, e.i. agregat MO -is.

fuladi masidan am agregatis gamoyofiT miviRebT fuladi masis mimoqcevis

siCqaris models: mSp/M= mSp/ MO x MO/ M.

am modelis Cawera SeiZleba gamartivebuli saxiTac: r.br = a x b,

sadac MO/ M aris naRdi fulis wili saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevaSi.

saerTo fuladi masis mimoqcevis siCqaris absoluturi cvlileba ga-

nisazRvreba Semdegnairad: r.br. = r.br1 _ r.br0.

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (a) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(a). = (a1 _

a0)* b1

mimoqcevis siCqaris cvlileba (b) faqtoris xarjze: r.br(b) = (b1 _

b0)* a1

2. fiskaluri statistikis arsi da amocanebi; sabiujeto - sagadasaxado

Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis statistika; biujetis proficitisa da

deficitis gamovlenis meTodebi

fiskaluri statistika Seiswavlis sabiujeto Semosulobebisa da

gadasaxdelebis dones maT struqturas, dinamikas da axdens masze moq-

medi faqtorebis korelaciur-regresiul analizs.

fiskaluri statistika iTvaliswinebs biujetis Semosulobebisa da

gadasaxdelebis analizs, pirvel rigSi Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis

struqturis gansazRvras. amisaTvis iyenebs struqturis SefardebiT

sidides da Semosulobebis (an gadasaxdelebis) TiToeuli muxlisaTvis

gansazRvravs xvedriT wils Semosulobebis (an gadasaxdelebis) mTlian

moculobaSi. kerZod, Semosulobebis (an gadasaxdelebis) yoveli muxlis

moculoba procentulad unda SevafardoT Semosulobebis (an

gadasaxdelebis) saerTo moculobasTan. garda amisa, saWiroa biujetis

Sesrulebis xarisxobrivi analizi, rogorc biujetis saerTo moculobis

aseve Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis calkeuli muxlebis mixedviT.

amisaTvis ki gamoiyeneba gegmis Sesrulebis SefardebiTi sidide, romelic

axasiaTebs faqtiuri Sesrulebis procentul Tanafardobas biujetis

sagegmo maCveneblebTan. Sedegad vRebulobT biujetis Sesrulebis

xarisxis maCvenebels.

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikuri Seswavla iTvaliswinebs aseve

biujetis Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis dinamikur analizs. amisaTvis

yvelaze martivi saSualeba aris dinamikis SefardebiTi sidideebis

gaangariSeba.

biujetis statistikuri analizis dros metad mniSvnelovan sakiTxs

warmoadgens Semosavlebis yvelaze mTavari muxlebis – sagadasaxado

110

Semosavlebis statistikuri analizi, romlisaTvisac saWiroa

gadasaxadebis indeqsebis gamoyeneba.

radgan sagadasaxado Semosavlebis moculoba gadasaxadebis sagadasaxado

ganakveTebisa da dasabegri bazis sididis namravlis tolia, amitom

sagadasaxado Semosavlebis indeqsi sagadasaxado ganakveTebisa da

dasabegri bazis sididis indeqsTa namravliT miiReba, kerZod,

BCH III . Tavis mxriv, 0

1

C

CIC , xolo

0

1

B

BIB , sadac,

C1 da C0 aris Sesabamisad mimdinare da sabaziso periodSi sagadasaxado ga-

nakveTi, xolo B1 da B0 - saangariSo da sabaziso periodebSi sagadasaxado

Semosavlebis sidide.

saqarTvelos saxelmwifo finansebi aRiricxeba sabiujeto sistemis

ZiriTadi doneebis – saxelmwifo biujetis, avtonomiuri respublikebisa

da adgilobrivi biujetebis mixedviT. saxelmwifo biujeti – saqarTvelos

parlamentis mier damtkicebuli saqarTvelos centraluri xelisuflebis

Semosulobebis, agreTve misi funqciebisa da valdebulebebis Sesrulebis

mizniT gasawevi gadasaxdelebisa da naSTis cvlilebis erTobliobaa.

biujetis Semosulobebia: Semosavlebi – gadasaxadebi, grantebi, sxva

Semosavlebi, arafinansuri aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan

miRebuli saxsrebi), finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebidan

miRebuli saxsrebi, naSTis gamoyenebis garda), valdebulebebi

(valdebulebebis aRebis Sedegad miRebuli saxsrebi).

biujetis gadasaxdelebia saangariSo periodSi biujetidan gasacemi

fuladi saxsrebis erToblioba. maT miekuTvneba: xarjebi, arafinansuri

aqtivebi (arafinansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi),

finansuri aqtivebi (finansuri aqtivebiT operaciebze mimarTuli saxsrebi,

naSTis dagrovebis garda), valdebulebebi (valdebulebebis ZiriTadi

nawilis dafarvaze mimarTuli saxsrebi).

biujetis proficiti da deficiti:

1. biujetis Semosavlebsa da xarjebs Soris sxvaoba aris biujetis

saoperacio saldo, xolo saoperacio saldosa da arafinansuri aqtivebis

cvlilebas Soris sxvaoba – biujetis mTliani saldo;

2. dadebiTi mTliani saldo aris biujetis proficiti, xolo uaryofiTi

mTliani saldo – deficiti.

saxelmwifo biujetis statistikis ZiriTad amocanebs warmoadgens:

111

• biujetis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis maCveneblebis dadgena;

• saxelmwifo biujetis Semosavlebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• saxelmwifo biujetis xarjebis struqturis gansazRvra;

• biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebis an proficitis gamoyenebis

mimarTulebebis dadgena;

• sagareo saxelmwifo valis moculobis dadgena.

statistika biujets axasiaTebs sxvadasxva absoluturi da SefardebiTi

maCveneblebiT.

biujetis statistikis absolutur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

Semosavlebi (grantebis CaTvliT);

xarjebi;

Semosavlebis mateba xarjebze (saoperacio saldo);

saqarTvelos sagadasaxado kodeqsis Tanaxmad, biujetis saSemosavlo

nawilis formirebis ZiriTad wyaroebad iTvleba:

biujetis xarjviTi nawili iTvaliswinebs iseTi saxis sferoebis

dafinansebas, rogoricaa:

• saerTo daniSnulebis saxelmwifo momsaxureba;

• Tavdacva;

• sazogadoebrivi wesrigi da uSiSroeba;

• ekonomikuri saqmianoba (soflis meurneoba, transporti da a.S.);

• garemos dacva;

• sabinao-komunaluri meurneoba;

• janmrTelobis dacva;

• dasveneba, kultura da religia;

• ganaTleba;

• socialuri dacva.

grantebi - es aris usasyidlo aradabrunebadi, arasavaldebulo

Semosavlebi, romelsac aqvs araregularuli, erTdrouli, nebayoflobiTi

xasiaTis subvenciisa da reparaciis saxe. mocemuli finansuri nakadi

Semoedineba saxelmwifo marTvis dawesebulebebidan an saerTaSoriso

112

organizaciebidan. Ggrantebi saqarTvelos sabiujeto klasifikaciis

damtkicebis Taobaze saqarTvelos finansTa ministris 2010 wlis 25

agvistos N 672 brZanebiT, mokled rom vTqvaT aris arasavaldebulo

transferi, romelsac saxelmwifo erTeuli iRebs sxva saxelmwifo

erTeulidan, sxva qveynis mTavrobidan, an saerTaSoriso organizaciidan.

biujetis deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebia:

1. arafinansuri operaciebi (kapitaluri Semosavlebis saxiT);

2. finansuri operaciebi (kreditsa da fasian qaRaldebTan dakavSirebuli

operaciebi);

3. operaciebi valdebulebebze (sesxebTan dakavSirebuli operaciebi).

arafinansuri operaciebidan miRebuli saxsrebi gaiTvaliswineba biujetis

deficitis (mTliani uaryofiTi saldos) gansazRvrisas.

rogorc finansuri operaciebidan, ise operaciebidan valdebulebebze,

deficitis dafinansebis wyaroebidan gamoiyofa saSinao da sagareo

wyaroebi. kerZod, finansuri operaciebi saSinao wyaroebi moicavs

sesxebs, valutasa da depozitebs, fasian qaRaldebs, garda aqciebisa,

sadazRvevo teqnikur rezervebs, aqciebs da sxva kapitals, warmoebul

finasur instrumentebs, sxva debitorul/kreditorul davalianebebs.

sagareo dafinanseba moicavs: saxelmwifo fasiani qaRaldebis gamoSvebas

(garda aqciebisa); saerTaSoriso safinanso organizaciebis kredits;

ucxouri saxelmwifoebis mTavrobis mier saqarTvelosadmi gamoyofil

kreditebs, sxva saxis dafinansebas.

drois garkveul manZilze biujetis deficitis dasafinanseblad moziduli

saxelmwifo valdebulebebis erToblioba warmoadgens saxelmwifo vals.

saxelmwifo vali warmoadgens xelisuflebis organoebis valdebulebas

iuridiuli da fizikuri pirebis, ucxo saxelmwifoebis, saerTaSoriso

organizaciebis da saerTaSoriso samarTlis sxva subieqte-bis mimarT.

rogorc ukve aRvniSneT, sagareo valis statistikis amocanebia misi zomisa

da masStabebis, struqturisa da dinamikis dadgena.

yvela donis biujetis Sesrulebis analizi xorcieldeba: biujetis

ZiriTadi maCveneblebis (Semosavlebi, xarjebi da a. S.), agreTve, mTlianad

Semosulobebisa da gadasaxdelebis mixedviT gegmis Sesrulebis

SefardebiTi maCveneblebis safuZvelze.

AsaqarTvelos sabiujeto kodeqsis mixedviT arsebobs biujetis sxvadasxva

saxe, maT Soris: saqarTvelos naerTi biujeti, saxelmwifo biujeti,

113

avtonomiuri respublikis respublikuri biujeti, adgilobrivi

TviTmmarTveli erTeulis biujeti.

maTgan, saqarTvelos naerTi biujeti waredgineba saqarTvelos parlaments

informaciis saxiT, xolo saxelmwifo biujets amtkicebs saqarTvelos

parlamenti;

avtonomiuri respublikis respublikuri biujets amtkicebs avtonomiuri

respublikis umaRlesi sabWo; adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulis

biujets amtkicebs adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis warmomadgenlobiTi

organo (sakrebulos).

saqarTvelos naerTi biujeti – saqarTvelos saxelmwifo, avtonomiuri

respublikebis respublikuri da adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis

konsolidirebuli biujeti. naerTi biujeti ar eqvemdebareba arc erTi

xelisuflebis warmomadgenlobiTi organos mier damtkicebas;

saxelmwifos erTiani biujeti – centraluri, avtonomiuri respublikebis

erTiani respublikuri da adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis

erTiani municipaluri biujetebis konsolidirebuli biujeti.

saxelmwifos erTiani biujeti ar eqvemdebareba arcerTi xelisuflebis

warmomadgenlobiTi organos mier damtkicebas;

saxelmwifo biujeti – saqarTvelos parlamentis mier damtkicebuli,

saqarTvelos centraluri xelisuflebis funqciebisa da valdebulebebis

Sesrulebis mizniT misaRebi Semosulobebis, gasawevi gadasaxdelebisa da

naSTis cvlilebis erToblioba;

centraluri biujeti – saxelmwifo biujetis da saqarTvelos mTavrobis

dadgenilebiT an kanonis safuZvelze saxelmwifo mmarTvelobis organos

administraciuli aqtiT da saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili

wesiT saqarTvelos centraluri xelisuflebis organos an/da mis mier

dafuZnebuli sajaro samarTlis iuridiuli pirebisa da arasamewarmeo

(arakomerciuli) iuridiuli pirebis biujetebis konsolidirebuli

biujeti. centraluri biujeti ar eqvemdebareba arcerTi xelisuflebis


avtonomiuri respublikis naerTi biujeti – afxazeTis an aWaris

avtonomiuri respublikis respublikuri da Sesabamisad mis

SemadgenlobaSi Semavali adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis

konsolidirebuli biujeti. avtonomiuri respublikis naerTi biujeti ar

eqvemdebareba arc erTi xelisuflebis warmomadgenlobiTi organos mier

damtkicebas;

114

erTiani avtonomiuri respublikis biujeti – avtonomiuri respublikis

erTiani respublikuri biujetis da mis SemadgenlobaSi Semavali

TviTmmarTveli erTeulebis erTiani municipaluri biujetebis

konsolidirebuli biujeti. erTiani avtonomiuri respublikis biujeti ar

eqvemdebareba arcerTi xelisuflebis warmomadgenlobiTi organos mier

damtkicebas;

avtonomiuri respublikis respublikuri biujeti – avtonomiuri

respublikis umaRlesi sabWos mier damtkicebuli, avtonomiuri

respublikis xelisuflebis funqciebisa da valdebulebebis Sesrulebis

mizniT misaRebi Semosulobebis, gasawevi gadasaxdelebisa da naSTis

cvlilebis erToblioba;

avtonomiuri respublikis erTiani respublikuri biujeti – avtonomiuri

respublikis respublikuri biujetis da avtonomiuri respublikis

umaRlesi aRmasrulebeli organos normatiuli da saqarTvelos

kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili wesiT avtonomiuri respublikis xelisuflebis

organos an/da mis mier dafuZnebuli sajaro samarTlis iuridiuli

pirebisa da arasamewarmeo (arakomerciuli) iuridiuli pirebis biujetebis

konsolidirebuli biujeti. avtonomiuri respublikis erTiani

respublikuri biujeti ar eqvemdebareba arcerTi xelisuflebis


adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulis biujeti – adgilobrivi

TviTmmarTvelobis warmomadgenlobiTi organos (sakrebulos) mier

damtkicebuli, adgilobrivi xelisuflebis funqciebisa da

valdebulebebis Sesrulebis mizniT misaRebi Semosulobebis, gasawevi

gadasaxdelebisa da naSTis cvlilebis erToblioba;

erTiani municipaluri biujeti – adgilobrivi TviTmmarTveli erTeulis

biujetis da adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis warmomadgenlobiTi organos

– sakrebulos normatiuli aqtiT, saqarTvelos organuli kanoniT

„adgilobrivi TviTmmarTvelobis kodeqsi“ gansazRvruli wesiT da

saqarTvelos kanonmdeblobiT dadgenili wesiT TviTmmarTveli erTeulis

xelisuflebis organos mier daqvemdebarebuli/dafuZnebuli sajaro

samarTlis iuridiuli pirebisa da arasamewarmeo (arakomerciuli)

iuridiuli pirebis biujetebis konsolidirebuli biujeti. erTiani

municipaluri biujeti ar eqvemdebareba arcerTi xelisuflebis


biujetis Semosavlebi formirdeba 3 wyarodan: gadasaxadebi grantebi da

sxva Semosavlebi.

saxelmwifos mier fiskaluri politikis ZiriTadi instrumenti

ekonomikuri politikis realizaciaze zemoqmedebis TvalsazrisiT,

115

sagadasaxado sistemaa. DsaqarTveloSi dRes moqmedi kanonmdeblobiT

sagadasaxado sistema moicavs Semdeg gadasaxadebs: _gadasaxadi

Semosavalze, mogebaze da kapitalis Rirebulebis zrdaze:

adi;

_ sayovelTao gadasaxadebi saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze:

_gadasaxadebi sagareo vaWrobasa da sagareo-ekonomikur operaciebze:

importis gadasaxadi;

_ gadasaxadi sakuTrebaze:

sxva gadasaxadebi;

gadasaxadebi arsebobs saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi, pirdapiri da iribi,

saerTo da specialuri (gamoyenebis niSnis mixedviT), fiqsirebuli,

progresuli, regresuli (sagadamxdelo ganakveTebis mixedviT).

fiskaluri statistika Seiswavlis sabiujeto Semosulobebisa da

gadasaxdelebis dones da maT struqturas, dinamikas da axdens masze moq-

medi faqtorebis korelaciur-regresiul analizs.

Ddinamikis dasaxasiaTeblad statistika iyenebs saindeqso meTods, rom-

lis safuZvelzec angariSobs sagadasaxao Semosavlebis saerTo indeqss.

sagadasaxo Semosavlebis saerTo indeqsi ase gamoiTvleba2:

00

11

q

qq

sadac aris sagadasaxado ganakveTi;

- sagadasaxado baza.

sagadasaxado bazebis indeqsi ase aigeba: 00

01

q

qq

sagadasaxo ganakveTebis indeqsi ki ase aigeba: 01

11

q

q

am indeqsebs Soris arsebobs Semdegi urTierTkavSiri:

00

01

q

q

01

11

q

q

00

11

q

q

, e. i. q q .

2 . ძ რ . ., 2003, .

116

absolutur maCvenebelTa safuZvelze SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes

Semdegi saxis SefardebiTi statistikuri maCveneblebi, romlebic

axasiaTeben saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris saqmianobis ekonomikur Sedegebs:

1. saxelmwifo marTvis seqtoris xarjebis wili gaiangariSeba saxelmwifo

marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul produqtTan;

2. gadasaxadebis wili gaiangariSeba gadasaxadiT dabegrili saxelmwifo

marTvis seqtoris xarjebis SefardebiT erovnul produqtTan;

3. gadasaxadebisa da mosakreblebis wili – gadasaxadisa da socdazRvevis

anaricxebis SefardebiT erovnul produqtTan.

AsaerTaSoriso SedarebebisaTvis gamoiyeneba saxelmwifo biujetis

deficitis ara absoluturi, aramed SefardebiTi done, romelic SeiZleba

gaangariSebul iqnes sxvadasxva meTodiT.

saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis (ssf) rekomendaciebiT, deficitis

SefardebiTi sidide gaiangariSeba, rogorc deficitis absoluturi

sididis Sefardeba mTlian Sida produqtTan. saqarTvelos

kanonmdeblobiT deficitis normatiuli sidide mSp-sTan Seadgens 3%. is

gamoiyeneba ssf-is mier kreditebis gacemisa da ssf-Si qveynebis wevrad

miRebisas.

aranakleb mniSvnelovania saxelmwifo valis statistikuri maCveneblebis

gaangariSeba. saxelmwifo valis momsaxureba xorcieldeba procentebis ga-

daxdisa da sesxis ZiriTadi Tanxis dafarviT.

sesxis wliuri momsaxurebis sidide SeiZleba gaangariSebul iqnes Sem-

degi formulis safuZvelze: ,21 DDD

sadac 1D - aris sesxze daricxuli procentis sidide;

2D - dafaruli ZiriTadi sesxis sidide.

statistika gansazRvravs momsaxurebis moculobas Semdegi formuliT:

,21

Э

DDK

sadac Э aris qveynis saeqsporto sargeblis sidide.

M momsaxurebis moculobis gaangariSebis meore meTodi iTvaliswinebs va-

lis momsaxurebis absoluturi sididis Sefardebas mSp-Tan, e. i. GDP

DDK 21

3. kreditis statistikuri Seswavlis maCveneblebi

saqarTveloSi sabanko sistemis ZiriTad rgols warmoadgens erovnuli

banki. igi axorcielebs qveyanaSi fulad-sakredito regulirebas.

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki Sesabamisi kanonmdeblobis safuZvelze

117

SeimuSavebs fulad-sakredito politikis strategias da taqtikas. am

politikis Sedegebi SesaZlebelia Sefasdes monetaruli indikatorebiT.

aseTi indikatorebi garkveulwilad fulis bazarsa da ZiriTad socialur-

ekonomikur maCveneblebs Soris damakavSirebeli rgolia.

sabanko kreditis ZiriTad statistikur maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

• ekonomikisa da mosaxleobis dakreditebisaTvis bankebis mier gacemuli

Tanxebis moculoba;

• sakredito dabandebebis saerTo TanxaSi moklevadiani da grZelvadiani

kreditebis xvedriTi wili;

• sawarmoebis mier bankebSi aRebuli sesxebis vadagadacilebuli

davalianeba.

sakredito Tanxebis gamoyenebis analizisas statistikaSi gaiangariSe-

ba Semdegi maCveneblebi: kreditis brunvis ricxvi (K), kreditis brunvadoba

dReebSi (T), produqciis gamoSvebis moculoba sakredito resursebis erT

larze.

brunvaTa ricxvi ganisazRvreba Semdegi formuliT:

,S

QK

sadac K - brunvaTa ricxvia mocemul periodSi;

Q - kreditis brunva gacemis an dafarvis mixedviT;

S kreditis saSualo naSTi.

K kreditis dReebSi brunvadobis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa mocemuli pe-

riodis kalendaruli dReebis ricxvis Sefardeba brunvadobis koeficien-

tTan.

maSasadame, K

Tt

gacemuli kreditis yovel erT larze damatebiT gamoSvebuli produqciis

raodenoba gaiangariSeba gamoSvebuli produqciis SefardebiT gacemuli

kreditis mTlian moculobasTan.

nebismieri safinanso, sakredito an komerciuli operacia warmoadgens maT

monawileebs Soris SeTanxmebaTa erTobliobas Semdegi pirobebiT:

kreditis moculoba, saqonlis fasi, procentis daricxvisa da ZiriTadi

valis dafarvis xerxi da sxva.

finansur gaangariSebaSi procentis qveS igulisxmeba nebismieri formis

valis saxiT aRebuli Tanxidan miRebuli Semosavlis absoluturi sidide.

118

procentis gadaxda kreditorisaTvis xdeba valis sidideze daricxviT an

masTan erTad.

finansur raodenobriv analizSi saprocento ganakveTi warmoadgens ara

marto savalo Tanxis gazrdis instruments, aramed aseve finansuri

operaciis Semosavlis sazomsac.

arsebobs saprocento ganakveTis ori ZiriTadi saxe: martivi da rTuli.

sawyisi Tanxis zrdis meqanizmi martivi saprocento ganakveTis dros maTe-

matikurad Semdegnairad SeiZleba gamovsaxoT:

)21()1( iPiiPPiPiP ,

)1( niPs ;

xolo rTuli saprocento ganakveTis dros

)1(1 iPPiPS ,

2

1112 )1()1)(1()1( iPiiPiSSiSS ,

niPS )1( ,

sadac, P - Tavdapirveli Tanxaa;

i - saprocento ganakveTi;

n - welTa ricxvi;

S - dagrovili fuli, Tavdapirveli Tanxa masze daricxuli procentiT va-

dis (periodis) bolos.

Tu sesxis gacema unda moxdes erT wlamde vadiT, maSin bankisaTvis

ufro momgebiania martivi, xolo erT welze meti periodisaTvis – rTuli

saprocento ganakveTi.

4. sadazRvevo bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi

sabazro ekonomikis funqcionireba xdeba bazrebis saSualebiT.

pirobiTad SegviZlia gamovyoT sasaqonlo da finansuri bazari. Cven

SevexebiT finansur bazars, romelic moicavs sadazRvevo bazars, fasiani

qaRaldebis bazars, savaluto bazars, sakredito bazars.

119

ganviTarebuli qveynebisaTvis damaxasiaTebelia sami tipis sadazRve-

vo sistema: kerZo sadazRvevo sistema, saxelmwifo sadazRvevo sistema da

Sereuli.

dazRvevis bazris statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema moicavs absolu-

tur sidideebs, SefardebiT sidideebs da saSualo sidideebs.Aabsoluturi

sidideebia: sadazRvevo mindori, sadazRvevo portfeli, sadazRvevo Sem-

Txveveis ricxvi, dazaralebuli obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxa da a.S.

SefardebiT sidideebs mieku vneba:

D ) dazRvevis zaralianobis done:

sadac W - anazRaurebuli zaralia;

- dazaralebulo obieqtebis sadazRvevo Tanxa.

) zaralebis fardobiTi sixSire, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:

sadac q-zaralebis raodenobaa, xolo N-dasazRvevod miRebuli riskebis

raodenoba(xelSekrulebebis raodenoba).

g) sadazRvevo Tanxis done, romelic gaiangariSeba formuliT:

sadac sadazRvevo Tanxis donea, xolo dazaralebuli obieqtebis

sadazRvevo Tanxaa, S - yvela sadazRvevo obieqtis sadazRvevo Tanxa.

d) sadazRvevo anazRaurebis done gaiangariSeba formuliT:

100nP

WK

sadac W aris anazRaurebuli zarali; P n - moziduli jamuri premia.

e) dazaralebuli obieqtebis xvedriTi wili gamoiTvleba formuliT:

100N

nKn

sadac n aris dazaralebuli obieqtebis, xolo N - dazRveuli obieqtebis

saerTo ricxvi.

v) sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis sixSiris maCvenebeli gamoiTvleba formuliT:

sadac m aris sadazRvevo SemTxvevebis ricxvi, xolo N - dazRveuli obieq-

tebis ricxvi.

az vevis statistika angariSobs iseT saSualo maCveneblebs, rogoricaa:

premiis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazRvevo obieqtze,

100n

sS

WK

100N

qV

100S

SK n

s

sK nS

100N

mKm

nS

120

zaralis moculoba saSualod, romelic modis erT sadazRvevo obieqtze

da a.S.

zaralis saSualo sidide gaiangariSeba mTlianad anazRaurebul za-

ralis SefardebiT zaralebis raodenobasTan, rac formuliT Semdegnai-

rad SeiZleba iqnes gamosaxuli: ;S

qv

5. inflaciis donisa da dinamikis statistikuri analizi

inflaciis kvlevis msoflio praqtikaSi inflaciis donis saerTo da-

xasiaTebisaTvis gamoiyeneba ori maCvenebeli: pirveli, samomxmareblo fase-

bis indeqsi, romelic saSualebas iZleva Sefasdes inflaciis done samom-

xmareblo bazarze da zomavs im fasebis saSualo cvlilebas, romelsac

qalaqis mosaxleoba ixdis saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fiqsirebuli kala-

Tis SesaZenad; dReisaTvis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi erTaderTi maCve-

nebelia, romlis saSualebiTac izomeba qveyanaSi inflaciis done; meore,

mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori, romelic afasebs inflaciis dones

saxelmwifoSi warmoebuli da moxmarebuli mTliani dovlaTis mixedviT.

inflaciis done izomeba fasebis indeqsis gamoyenebiT, anu:

Iinf=

0

01

p

pp

I

II100,

sadac - inflaciis done procentulad;

1pI - saqonlis fasis indeqsia saangariSo periodSi;

0pI - saqonlis fasis indeqsia sabaziso periodSi.

mocemuli formula SeiZleba Caiweros asec: 1001

0

1

p

p

I

II inf. .

magaliTi: Tu 07.11pI , 03.1

0pI , maSin inflaciis done Seadgens:

%9.3100103.1

07.1

.

misi cvlileba uCvenebs, Tu ramdeni procentiT Seicvala inflaciis

done drois mocemul periodSi.

inflaciis sidide ki gaiangariSeba Semdegnairad: ( p - 1) x 100.

mTliani Sida produqtis deflatori udris:

,

sadac Im aris fuladi masis indeqsi da igi tolia:

inf.I

q

nm

01 mmm :

121

,

xolo m1 d a m0 aris fuladi masa Sesabamisad saangariSo da sabaziso

wels.

, sadac

n1 da n0 aris fuladi masis brunvaTa ricxvi saangariSo da sabaziso wels.

saxelmwifo statistikis mier fuladi masa gaiangariSeba naRdi da

unaRdo fuladi saxsrebis, yvela Semosavlebis jamis (dagrovebis moculo-

bis gaTvaliswinebiT), Senatanebisa da gadasaxdelebis brunvis mixedviT,

xolo sasaqonlo masa – saqonelbrunvisa da momsaxurebis gayidvis mocu-

lobis, saqonlisa da momsaxurebis yidvaze mosaxleobis fuladi danaxar-

jebis mixedviT.

sasaqonlo da fuladi masebis Sesabamisobis done fasdeba rigi

maCveneblebis mixedviT. kerZod, aseTebs miekuTvneba: fuladi da sasaqonlo

masebis Tanafardoba statikasa da dinamikaSi; fuladi masisa da fasebis

zrdis tempebis Tanafardoba; Semosavlebisa da fasebis zrdis tempebis

Tanafardoba. aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom analizisaTvis saWiro

informaciul bazad gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva saxis wyaro, kerZod: saqonlisa

da momsaxurebis fasebis mopoveba xorcieldeba SerCeviTi gamokvlevis

statistikuri meTodiT; samomxmareblo danaxarjebis struqtura saojaxo

biujetis statistikiT regularuli gamokvlevebis safuZvelze;

informacias fuladi masis Taobaze statistikuri organoebi iReben

bankebidan; mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis balansi

saSualebas iZleva ganisazRvros saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenis

danaxarjebi.

inflaciis gasazomad gamoiyeneba agreTve fuladi erTeulis msyidve-

lobiTunarianobis indeqsi, romelic gviCvenebs, Tu mocemul period-

Si ramdeniT gaufasurda an gaZlierda (ganmtkicda) fuladi erTeuli

(erovnuli valuta). igi fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebuli maCvenebelia:

11

101

qp

qp

II

p

.

magaliTad: fasebis indeqsma 2009 wlis dekemberSi 2008 wlis dekemberTan

SedarebiT Seadgina 115,2%. e. i. fasebi gaizarda 15,2%-iT. es ki imas niS-

navs, rom laris msyidvelobiTunarianoba Semcirda 13,2% - iT.

e. i. (1 - 0,868) x 100 = 13,2%.

inflaciis donisa da dinamikis erT-erT ZiriTad maCvenebels warmo-

adgens `samomxmareblo kalaTis~ da mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebis

urTierTdamokidebuleba. igi Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:

01 nnn

86801521

1,

,

122

Iinf= 1001

11

D

pq,

sadac Iinf aris inflaciis done procentebSi;

11 pq - sasursaTo produqtebis Rirebuleba;

1D - mosaxleobis fuladi Semosavlebi.

6. safinanso birJisa da fasiani qaRaldebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

safinanso-sabanko statistika fasiani qaRaldebis bazris raodenob-

rivi daxasiaTebisaTvis angariSobs Semdeg statistikur maCveneblebs: gari-

gebis raodenoba, aqciebis raodenoba, garigebis Rirebuleba, birJis likvi-

duroba da a. S.

birJis likviduroba niSnavs birJis mTliani sabrunavi kapitalis

gadaqcevis siswrafes fulad kapitalSi, anu vaWrobis siswrafes. misi

pirdapiri maCveneblebia brunvadobis koeficienti da brunvadobis dRee-

bi.

B brunvadobis koeficienti gaiangariSeba formuliT:

ANU S

QK

sadac QQ aris birJaze garigebaTa mTliani Rirebuleba sabazro fasebSi;

S ki - birJaze sabrunavi kapitalis saSualo naSTi mocemul periodSi.

B brunvadobis dReebi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

K

Tt , sadac T aris kalendaruli dReebis ricxvi.

7. savaluto bazris statistikuri maCveneblebi3

avaluto bazarze valutiT vaჭroba xorcieldeba valutis kursiT,

romelic gviCvenebs valutis erTi erTeulis fass gamosaxuls meore

valutiT. avaluto kurss bazarze gansazRvravs moTxovna miwodeba,

romelic varirebadia, riTac yalibdeba Tavisuflad mcocavi savaluto

kursebi. avaluto kursis saxeebia: pirdapiri da Sebrunebuli, kros-kursi,

forvarduli, myidvelis, gamyidvelis, gacvliTi da sxv.

tatistika sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT msyidvelobiTunarianobis pa-

ritetis indeqss angariSobs Semdegi formuliT:

3 detalurad ixileT: m. xmalaZe, statistika ekonomikasa da biznesSi. Tb., 2011, gv. 538-548

,100

ba

aa

pq

pqI

123

sadac aris ,,a” qveynis sasaqonlo jgufis, an mTeli sasaqonlo pro-

duqciis fizikuri moculoba;

da - Sesabamisad ,,a” da ,,b” qveynis fasebia mocemul periodSi.

valutis gacvliTi kursis saxeebia: nominaluri, realuri, nominalur-

efeqturi da realur-efeqturi.

or periodSi nominaluri gacvliTi kursis dinamikis dasaxasia eb-

lad angari oben valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursis indeqss:

sadac aris valutis nominaluri gacvliTi kursi Sesabamisad saan-

gariso da sabaziso periodebSi.

valutis realuri gacvliTi kursis indeqsi aigeba Semdegnairad:

sadac aris Sesabamisad saqarTvelosa da aSS-s samomxmareblo fase-

bis indeqsebi; an meorenairad:

aq

ap bp

0

1

e

ekn

01, ee

b

a

I

I

e

eK

0

1

ba II ,

b

a

n I

I

Kk

1

124

Tema 6

cxovrebis donis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis obieqti;

2. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi ZiriTadi komponentebi; humanuri

ganviTarebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologia;

3. Sinameurneobebis statistikuri Seswavla; mosaxleobis Semosavlebisa

da danaxarjebis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

4. mosaxleobis diferenciaciis maCveneblebi cxovrebis donis mixedviT;

k. jinis koeficientis gamoyeneba;

5. samomxmareblo kalaTis gaangariSebis meTodika;

6. siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla; siRaribis donis, siRrmisa da

simwvavis statistikuri maCveneblebi;

7. mosaxleobis jandacvisa da ganaTlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi.

1. mosaxleobis cxovrebis done, rogorc statistikis Seswavlis

obieqti

mosaxleobis cxovrebis done warmoadgens umniSvnelovanes socialur-

ekonomikur kategorias. ekonomikur literaturaSi ar arsebobs misi

erTxmad miRebuli ganmarteba. Sesabamisad rTuldeba im statistikuri

maCveneblebis gansazRvra, romelTa saSualebiTac unda daxasiaTdes

cxovrebis done.

yvelaze gavrcelebulia Sexeduleba, rom cxovrebis done

ganisazRvreba im saqonlisa da momsaxurebis erTobliobiT, romelsac

flobs adamiani an adamianTa jgufi. aris ganmartebac, sakmaod

yuradsaRebi, rom cxovrebis done gulisxmobs rogorc materialuri da

sulieri dovlaTis moxmarebis moculobas, aseve maTze adamianis

moTxovnilebis dakmayofilebis xarisxs.

farTo gagebiT mosaxleobis cxovrebis done moicavs cxovrebis

pirobebs, Sromas, yofas, dasaqmebas, dasvenebas da ganaTlebas. am

SemTxvevaSi ki laparakoben `cxovrebis xarisxze~. saerTod ki SeiZleba

iTqvas rom cxovrebis doneze moqmedebs yvela movlena Tu procesi, rasac

adgili aqvs qveyanaSi. ufro metic ama Tu im qveynis mosaxleobis

cxovrebis doneze SeiZleba mkveTri gavlena moaxdinos saerTaSoriso

urTierTobebis cvlilebebma, risi magaliTebic arc ise iSviaTia Soreul,

axlo warsulSi Tu dRes.

ase rom cxovrebis donis statistikuri Sefaseba da gazomva

garkveulwilad problemuri Temaa. Tumca dReisaTvis miRebulia, rom

cxovrebis donis erT-erT mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens

Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebi, romlebic gansazRvraven maT

SesaZleblobebs SeiZinon saqonlis, momsaxurebis da aqtivebis garkveuli

moculoba. Semosavlebi warmoadgenen agreTve danazogebis wyaros,

romlebic SemdgomSi SeiZleba gamoyenebuli iyos sxvadasxva daniSnulebiT:

125

binebis, miwebis, Zvirfasi liTonebis da sxvaTa SesaZenad, romelTa

flobac adamianebs cxovrebis gaumjobesebis saSualebas aZlevs.

cxovrebis done SeiZleba Seswavlili iqnes sxvadasxva WrilSi:

1. mTeli mosaxleobis mixedviT;

2. qalaqisa da soflis mosaxleobis mixedviT;

3. regionebis mixedviT;

4. socialuri jgufebis mixedviT;

5. Sinameurneobebi Semosavlebis sxvadasxva donis mixedviT;

6. Sinameurneobebi maTSi dasaqmebulTa ricxvis mixedviT.

cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dgas rigi amocanebi, romelTagan

ZiriTadia cxovrebis donis da dinamikis daxasiaTeba, mosaxleobis

Semosavlebis da moxmarebis doneebis da struqturis Seswavla, aseve

Semosavlebisa da moxmarebis doneebSi da struqturaSi momxdari

cvlilebebis asaxva-analizi, xangrZlivi moxmarebis sagnebis dagrovebis

analizi, siRaribis donis da sazRvrebis dadgena.

cxovrebis donis statistikis winaSe dasmuli amocanebis gadawyvetas

statistika axdens maCvenebelTa sistemis daxmarebiT, romelTagan yvelaze

mniSvnelovania sakiTxi: SeiZleba Tu ara cxovrebis done daxasiaTdes

erTi romelime ganmazogadebeli maCvenebliT.

sazogadoebis ganviTarebis da Sesabamisad keTildReobis ZiriTad

determinants warmoadgens ekonomika. amitom cxovrebis donis ZiriTad

ganmazogadebel maCveneblad SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnes ekonomikis

mdgomareobis maxasiaTeblebi, rogoricaa mTliani Sida produqtis (mSp)

moculoba, mTliani erovnuli Semosavlis, wminda erovnuli Semosavlis da

wminda erovnuli gankargvadi Semosavlis moculoba rogorc absolutur

gamosaxulebaSi, ise erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT.

Tu: -Ti aRvniSnavT mTlian Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis

maCveneblebs mocemuli wlisTvis;

-iT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobas amave wlisTvis, maSin

erT mcxovrebze mTliani Sida produqtis da erovnuli Semosavlis

moculoba gaiangariSeba, rogorc

Q X =

Q

S.

aRniSnuli ganmazogadebeli maCveneblebis arsebiT nakls warmoadgens

is garemoeba, rom isini Seicaven iseT elementebs, romlebic pirdapir ar

arian dakavSirebuli cxovrebis donesTan. magaliTad mSp moicavs armiis,

policiis, saxelmwifo aparatis da a.S. Senaxvis xarjebs. amitom zogierTi

ekonomisti sruliad marTebulad gvTavazobs zemoTmotanil

makroekonomikur maCveneblebTan erTad visargebloT CvilTa mokvdaobis da

axladdabadebulis sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivobis

maCveneblebiT. am maCveneblebis upiratesoba isaa, rom maTSi

126

koncentrirebulad aisaxeba qveynis cxovrebis ekonomikuri, samedicino,

ekologiuri da a.S. saerTo jamSi raodenobrivi da xarisxobrivi mxare.

cxovrebis donis maxasiaTeblad gamoiyeneba agreTve realuri

xelfasis indeqsi an TviT realuri xelfasi, romelic miiReba nominaluri

xelfasis gayofiT samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze. amave rangis

maCvenebels miekuTvneba laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi,

romelic fasebis indeqsis Sebrunebul sidides warmoadgens. Tanamedrove

pirobebSi cxovrebis donis amsaxvel erT-erT ganmazogadebel maCveneblad

miCneulia samomomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi (sfi). saqarTvelos

statistikis mier is gaiangariSeba rogorc ori periodis fasebis saSualo

donis Tanafardoba saqonlisa da momsaxurebis fiqsirebuli kalaTis

mixedviT, romelsac SeiZens qalaqis mosaxleoba. saqonlisa da

momsaxurebis fasebi, romlebic gamoiyeneba sfi-s gamosaTvlelad, miiReba

fasebze SerCeviTi statistikuri dakvirvebiT. samomxmareblo kalaTSi

Sedis 311 dasaxelebis saqoneli da momsaxureba.4 moxmarebis struqtura

(indeqsis wonebi – moxmarebuli saqonlisa da momsaxurebis moculoba anu

q) miRebulia Sinameurneobebis gamokvlevaTa safuZvelze. samomxmareblo

fasebis indeqsi gamoiTvleba laspeiresis indeqsiT.

1 0

0 0

p q=

p p q,

J sadac

pJ _ aris samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsi;

p - calkeuli saxeobis saqonlis da momsaxurebis fasi an tarifi

mimdinare da sabaziso periodebSi;

q - SeZenili calkeuli saqonlis da momsaxurebis moculoba sabaziso

periodSi.

cxovrebis dones aseve axasiaTeben Semdegi indeqsebiT:

_ cxovrebis Rirebulebis indeqsiT, romelic warmoadgens samomxmareblo

fasebis harmoniul indeqss da gaiangariSeba formuliT:

11

11

1pq

i

pqI p , sadac

i _ aris calkeuli saxeobis produqciis da momsaxurebis fasis an

tarifis individualuri indeqsi.

_ mosaxleobis msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi, romelic

samomxmareblo indeqsis Sebrunebuli sididea. kerZod:

11

11

1

1

pq

pqi

II

sfi.

,

sadac aRniSvnebi igivea, rac wina formulaSi.5

4 sfi-s formirebaSi monawileobs 282 dasaxelebis saqoneli da momsaxureba.

5 formula 12.8 aris laris msyidvelobiTi unarianobis indeqsi.

127

2. humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsi da misi ZiriTadi komponentebi;

humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsis gaangariSebis meTodologia

gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis ganviTarebis programis

specialistebis jgufis mier 1998w. moxsenebaSi – adamianis ganviTarebis

Sesaxeb (oqsfordi, 1998) SemoTavazebuli iqna cxovrebis donis erTiani

agregirebuli maCvenebeli _ `adamianuri potencialis ganviTarebis

indeqsi~, romelsac kidev uwodeben humanuri ganviTarebis indeqss (hgi).

1998 wels SemuSavebuli hgi warmoadgens sami indeqsis saSualo

ariTmetikuls, romlebic asaxaven cxovrebis donis umniSvnelovanes

aspeqtebs, rogoricaa:

1. sicocxlis mosalodneli saSualo xangrZlivoba axlad

dabadebulisTvis;

2. mosaxleobis ganaTlebis miRweuli done;

3. mSp moculoba erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, gamosaxuli aSS

dolarebSi.

TiToeuli komponentis indeqsi gamoiTvleba formuliT:

I

ax

X

X X

X

i

i i

i min

m min

- ,

sadac Xi - aris i-ri maCveneblis faqtobrivi mniSvneloba;

axXi m

da Xi min- i-ri maCveneblis maqsimaluri da minimaluri mniSvnelobebi

Sesabamisad.

2010 wels hgi-is gaangariSebis meTodologiam mniSvnelovani

cvlilebebi ganicada, amitom aRniSnuls “axali meTodologiis” saxeliT

moixsenieben.

axali meTodologiiT:

1. sicocxlis xangrZlivobis indeqsi (LEI) = 2.63

20LE

LELE – sicocxlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobaa axalSobilTaTvis,

Tu maTi sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi SenarCunebuli iqneba dabadebisas

arsebuli asakobrivi mokvdaobis tendenciebi;

2. ganaTlebis indeqsi (EI) = 951.0

EYSIMYSI

128

2.1 swavlis saSualo xangrZlivobis indeqsi (MYSI) = 2.13

MYS

MYMYS – 25 wlis da zeviT asakis mosaxleobis mier mTeli

sicocxlis ganmavlobaSi miRebuli ganaTlebis xangrZlivobaa

ganaTlebis TiToeuli safexuris Teoriuli xangrZlivobis

gaTvaliswinebiT (wlebSi);

2.2 swavlis mosalodneli xangrZlivobis indeqsi (EYSI) = 6.20

EYS

EY EYS – saskolo asakis bavSvis swavlis mosalodneli

xangrZlivoba, Tu misi sicocxlis manZilze SenarCundeba ganaTlebis

miRebis mimdinare tendenciebi;

3. Semosavlebis indeqsi (II) = )163ln()108211ln(

)163ln()ln(

GNIpc

GHIpc – qveynis mTliani erovnuli Semosavali erT sul mosaxleze

msyidvelunarianobis paritetebiT, aSS dolari.

saboloo saxiT ki, hgi Semdegi saxiT Caiwereba:

3 IIEILEIHDI

humanuri ganviTarebis indeqsis tendenciebi 5 wliani intervalebiT

aris warmodgenili.

hgi maqsimaluri mniSvneloba Teoriulad SeiZleba iyos 100,0%, rac

niSnavs, rom sazogadoebam mTlianad gamoavlina Tavisi potencialuri

SesaZleblobebi. indeqsis mniSvneloba saqarTveloSi 2008 w. – 69,8%

niSnavs, rom qveyanas Tavisi adamianuri potencialis 30,2% realizebuli

ara aqvs (100 - 69,8 = 30,2). 2007 wels Jurnalma ekonomistma (The Economist)

gamoaqveyna cxovrebis xarisxiT msoflioSi pirvel adgilze myofi oci

qveyana. reitingi eyrdnoba adamianuri ganviTarebis indeqsis mniSvnelobas.

cxovrebis xarisxis mixedviT samoTxed dedamiwaze miCneulia norvegia,

romelmac reitingSi daikava pirveli adgili. meore da mesame adgils

ikaveben islandia da avstralia. meoce adgili daikava axalma zelandiam.

oceulSi Sevidnen aseve Svecia da dania, romlebic tradiciulad cnobili

arian cxovrebis maRali xarisxiT. aSS reitingSi ikavebs merve adgils.

129

zemoTganxiluli cxovrebis donis ganmazogadebel maCveneblebs didi

mniSvneloba aqvT, magram srulad ver axasiaTeben cxovrebis dones,

ramdenadac cxovreba gacilebiT mravalaspeqtiania, rac moiTxovs sxva

maCveneblebis gamoyenebasac. cxovrebis donis maxasiaTebeli maCvenebelTa

sistema gaerom SeimuSava 1960 wels, romelic gadamuSavebuli saxiT bolo

variantad warmodgenili iqna 1978 wels da moicavs maCvenebelTa 12 jgufs:

1. Sobadoba, mokvdaoba da sxva demografiuli maCveneblebi;

2. cxovrebis sanitarul-higienuri pirobebi;

3. sasursaTo saqonlis moxmareba;

4. sabinao pirobebi;

5. ganaTleba da kultura;

6. Sromisa da dasaqmebis pirobebi;

7. mosaxleobis Semosavlebi da xarjebi;

8. cxovrebis Rirebuleba da samomxmareblo fasebi;

9. satransporto saSualebebi;

10. dasvenebis organizacia;

11. socialuri uzrunvelyofa;

12. adamianis Tavisufleba.

amerikis SeerTebul StatebSi SemuSavebuli maCvenebelTa sistema

iTvaliswinebs cxovrebis donis iseT sakiTxebsac, rogoricaa: garemos

dacva, erovnuli Tavdacva da moqalaqeTa samarTlebrivi dacva.6

3. Sinameurneobebis statistikuri Seswavla; mosaxleobis

Semosavlebisa da danaxarjebis statistikuri maCveneblebi mosaxleobis Semosavlebis statistika axasiaTebs Semosavlebis

absolutur moculobas, Semosavlebis dones, dinamikas da struqturas.

Semosavlebis absoluturi moculoba an kidev mosaxleobis mTliani

Semosavlebi warmoadgens saqarTvelos mosaxleobis mier fulad

erTeulebSi gamoxatul Semosavlebis mTlian Tanxas. mocemuli maCvenebeli

gamoiTvleba saSualod TveSi, kvartalSi an wlis ganmavlobaSi.

mosaxleobis mTliani Semosavlebi Sedgeba fuladi da arafuladi

Semosavlebisgan, romlebic Tavis mxriv iyofa sxvadasxva saxeebad.

gaeros mier 1993 wels miRebul erovnul angariSTa sistemaSi

Semosavlis gaangariSebisas is eyrdnoba ingliseli ekonomistis j. hiksis

gansazRvras – Semosavali esaa maqsimaluri Tanxa, romelic SeiZleba

daixarjos moxmarebaze garkveuli periodis ganmavlobaSi im pirobiT, rom

sameurneo subieqtis aqtivebi amave periodSi ar Semcirdeba. ra Tqma unda,

qonebis gayidva, fulis sesxeba da danazogis gamoyeneba niSnavs sakuTari

kapitalis Semcirebas.

6 daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005, gv. 246-247

130

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis dones gvixasiaTebs Semosavlebis moculoba

erT mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT, larebSi.

am mizniT Semosavlis moculoba gaiyofa erT SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis

saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi Sinameureobebis ricxvze.

Semosavlebis donis maCveneblebi gaiangariSeba rogorc mTliani

Semosavlebis, aseve fuladi da arafuladi Semosavlebis da maTi

Semadgeneli nawilebis mixedviT.

zemoTmotanili maCveneblebis garda, mosaxleobis Semosavlebs da

Sesabamisad cxovrebis dones axasiaTeben Semdegi statistikuri

maCveneblebiT, rogoricaa: nominaluri Semosavlebi, realuri Semosavlebi,

saSualo nominaluri da realuri xelfasi, saSualo realuri xelfasis

msyidvelobiTi unari, minimaluri Semosavali (saarsebo minimumi),

minimaluri pensia da stipendia.

nominaluri Semosavlebi warmoadgens faqtobrivad daricxul

Semosavlebs. aseTis magaliTia daricxuli nominaluri xelfasi.

nominalur xelfass gamoklebuli gadasaxadebi da savaldebulo

gadasaxadebi gvaZlevs gankargvad, saboloo Semosavlebs.

realuri Semosavlebi is saboloo Semosavlebia, riTac SesaZlebelia

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZena.

nominaluri da realuri Semosavlebis donis statistikuri

daxasiaTebisaTvis gaiangariSeben maT moculobas erT mcxovrebze an erT

Sinameurneobaze, risTvisac Sesabamisi maCveneblebi mocemuli wlisTvis

gaiyofa mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxvze da/an Sinameurneobebis

ricxvze.

mosaxleobis cxovrebis donis mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels

warmoadgens saSualo nominaluri xelfasis da saSualo realuri

xelfasis maCveneblebi. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi SeiZleba gaangariSebuli

iqnes ekonomikis dargebis, regionebis da qveynis masStabiT rogorc

mTlianad, ise kacebisa da qalebis mixedviT.

saSualo nominaluri xelfasi gaiangariSeba daricxuli xelfasis

fondis SefardebiT dasaqmebulTa saSualo ricxvTan. maCvenebeli SeiZleba

gaangariSebuli iqnes Tvis, kvartalis, naxevari wlis da mTeli wlis

mixedviT.

saSualo realuri xelfasi gaiangariSeba saSualo nominaluri

xelfasis samomxmareblo fasebis indeqsze gayofiT.

saSualo realuri xelfasis msyidvelobiTi unari ganisazRvreba im

raodenobis sasursaTo da arasasursaTo saqonlisa da momsaxurebis

moculobiT, romelTa SeZenac SeiZleba aRniSnuli xelfasiT.

mosaxleobis moxmarebis statistikis amocanebia mosaxleobis

moxmarebis absoluturi moculobis, donis, dinamikis da struqturis

Seswavla. mosaxleobis moxmarebis absoluturi moculoba warmoadgens

131

mosaxleobis mier gaweuli xarjebis7 mTlian moculobas, gamosaxuls

fulad erTeulebSi. moxmareba moicavs saqonlisa da momsaxurebis SeZenas.

masSi mniSvnelovani adgili ukavia naturiT moxmarebas. moxmarebuli

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis struqturaSi Sedis samomxmareblo xarjebi

kvebis produqtebze, tansacmelsa da fexsacmelze, saojaxo moxmarebis

saqonelze, janmrTelobis dacvaze, eleqtroenergiaze, ganaTlebaze,

kulturaze, dasvenebaze, dazogvaze, gasesxebaze da sxva.

moxmarebis rogorc absoluturi, ise SefardebiTi (donis, dinamikis,

struqturis) maCveneblebi saqarTvelos statistikaSi gaiangariSeba

Tveebis, kvartlebis da mTeli wlis mixedviT, qalaqisa da soflis

WrilSi.

mosaxleobis moxmarebis dones gvixasiaTebs xarjebis moculoba erT

mcxovrebze da/an erT Sinameurneobaze gaangariSebiT. aRniSnuli

maCveneblebis gasaangariSeblad saWiroa xarjebis moculoba gaiyos erT

SemTxvevaSi mosaxleobis saSualowliur ricxvze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi

Sinameurneobebis ricxvze.

moxmarebis dones gamoiTvlian mTeli mosaxleobis, qalaqisa da

soflis da calkeuli sqesobriv-asakobrivi jgufebis mixedviT,

rogoricaa:8

1. skolamdeli asakis bavSvebi 0 _ 6^wlis;

2. mozardi 7 _ 15 wlis;

3. Sromisunariani mamakaci 16 – 64 wlis;

4. Sromisunariani qali 16 _ 59 wlis;

5. sapensio asakis mamakaci 65 welze meti;

6. sapensio asakis qali 60 welze meti.

sasursaTo saqonlis moxmarebis Sesaswavlad statistikaSi gamoiyofa

mosaxleobis 5 jgufi: (Sromis xasiaTis mixedviT)

1. upiratesad gonebrivi SromiT dakavebulebi.,

2. msubuqi fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

3. saSualo simZimis fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

4. mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi;

5. gansakuTrebiT mZime fizikuri SromiT dakavebulebi.

Sinameurneobebis Semosavlebisa da xarjebis monacemebze dayrdnobiT

SegviZlia SevadginoT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis da xarjebis balansi.

7 vgulisxmobT, rom moxmareba mis SeZenaze gaweuli xarjebis ekvivalenturia, e.i. mocemul paragrafSi ganxilulia samomxmareblo xarjebi.

8 daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 238.

132

4. mosaxleobis diferenciaciis maCveneblebi cxovrebis donis mixedviT;

k.jinis koeficientis gamoyeneba

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis mixedviT ganawilebis dasaxasiaTeblad

gamoiyeneba rigi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa: mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

ganawileba deciluri jgufebis mixedviT, mosaxleobis Semosavlebis

diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti, fondebis koeficienti,

Semosavlebis koncentraciis koeficienti (jinis koeficienti), modaluri

da medianuri Semosavali da sxv.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis ganawileba deciluri jgufebis mixedviT,

gulisxmobs mosaxleobis dayofas 10 jgufad. pirvel jgufSi

gaerTianebulia yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis

Semosavlebi, xolo meaTe jgufSi yvelaze maRali Semosavlebis mqone

mosaxleobis Semosavlebi. aseT jgufebs ewodeba deciluri jgufebi, anu

10 nawilad dayofili jgufebi.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficienti

gviCvenebs ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze mdidari mosaxleobis 10%-is

minimaluri Semosavlebi yvelaze Raribi 10%-is maqsimalur Semosavlebs9.

9d

1

dK =

d,

sadac d

K _ Semosavlebis diferenciaciis deciluri koeficientia;

9

d da 1

d _ mecxre da pirveli decili.

fondebis koeficienti gviCvenebs ramdenjer aRemateba yvelaze maRali

Semosavlebis mqone mosaxleobis 10%-is saSualosuladobrivi Semosavali

TveSi yvelaze dabali Semosavlebis mqone 10%-is analogiur maCvenebels.10

_

10

1

d K =

d

,

sadac - 10

-d da 1d

saSualo suladobrivi Semosavalia TveSi Sesabamis

decilur jgufebSi. deciluri jgufis saSualo Semosavali _

D

S

_

,d

sadac D_ deciluri jgufis mTliani Semosavalia, xolo S - jgufis

ricxovnoba. amasTan, jgufebis ricxovnoba Tanabaria da SerCevis 10%-is

tolia, maSin fondebis koeficienti SeiZleba gamovTvaloT, rogorc:

1

10110 :D

D

S

D

S

DK D ,

9 Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626

10 Экономическая статистика. Под ред. проф. Ю.Н. Иванова, М., 2006, с. 626

133

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis diferenciaciis dasaxasiaTeblad erT-erT

mniSvnelovan maCvenebels warmoadgens jinis koeficienti. korado jini iyo

(1884-1965 ww.) XX saukunis erT-erTi gamoCenili statistikosi. misi

samecniero interesebis sferoSi Sedioda Teoriuli da sabalanso

statistikis, demografiis, sociologiis da konkretuli ekonomikis

problemebi. Tavisi samecniero moRvaweobis periodSi Ggamoaqveyna

daaxloebiT aTasi mecnieruli naSromi. misi naSromebi gadaTargmnilia

bevr evropul enaze.11

jinis koeficienti, an kidev rogorc uwodeben jinis Semosavlebis

koncentraciis koeficienti, axasiaTebs uTanabrobas mosaxleobis

Semosavlebis da danaxarjebis ganawilebaSi. misi sidide meryeobs 0-dan 1-

mde. amasTan rac ufro metad uaxlovdeba misi mniSvneloba 1-s, miT meti

Semosavlebi koncentrirdeba mosaxleobis calkeuli jgufebis xelSi.

jinis koeficienti gamoiTvleba Semdegi saxiT:

iiii qpqpK 11

sadac ip aris _ mosaxleobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis

mixedviT, nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi;

iq _ Semosavlebis moculobis xvedri wili saSualo Semosavlebis

mixedviT, nazardi jamiT, koeficientebSi.

Cven aqamde ganvixileT mosaxleobis Semosavlebis maCveneblebi

saSualod TveSi da saSualod weliwadSi. aRniSnuli maCveneblebi

gamoiTvleba aseve saSualod kvartalebis mixedviT.

jinis koeficientis mixedviT, qveynebi iyofa sam jgufad:

_ socialuri Tanasworobis maRali done, jinis koeficienti naklebia

0,33-ze;

_ socialuri Tanasworobis saSualo done, jinis koeficienti

meryeobs 0,33-0,41-is farglebSi;

_ socialuri uTanasworobis maRali done, jinis koeficienti

aRemateba 0,41-s. socialuri uTanasworobis Zalian maRal doned iTvleba,

Tu jinis koeficienti aRemateba 0,5-s.

mosaxleobis Semosavlebis donis diferenciacias axasiaTeben aseve

modiT da medianiT.

moda aris Semosavlebis yvelaze gavrcelebuli sidide.

medianuri sidide _ Semosavlebis is sididea, romelic mosaxleobas

yofs or Tanabar nawilad. erT nawils aqvs masze naklebi Semosavlebi,

meores – meti.

5. samomxmareblo kalaTis gaangariSebis meTodika

11

Sesavali monografiis: К.Джини. Средные величины. М., 1970. с. 7

134

samomxmareblo kalaTa Sedgeba im sasursaTo da arasasursaTo

saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Rirebulebisgan, romelic saWiroa adamianis

minimaluri moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad.

saarsebo minimumi aris Semosavlebis is done, romelic uzrunvelyofs

im minimaluri dovlaTis da momsaxurebis SeZenas, rac saWiroa adamianis

janmrTelobis da sicocxlis SenarCunebisaTvis. saarsebo minimumi moicavs

danaxarjebs minimaluri raodenobis kvebis produqtebis, arasasursaTo

saqonlis da aucilebeli momsaxurebis SeZenaze. aRniSnuli danaxarjebi

moicavs agreTve gadasaxadebs da savaldebuli gadasaxdelebs.

amrigad, saarsebo minimumi moicavs samomxmareblo kalaTis

Rirebulebas, agreTve, gadasaxadebs da savaldebulo gadasaxdelebs.

saarsebo minimumi dgindeba da mosaxleobis uzrunvelyofa xdeba

qveynis socialur-ekonomikuri ganviTarebis donis gaTvaliswinebiT da

socialuri politikis realizaciis erT-erTi mTavari maCvenebelia.

samomxmareblo kalaTa gaiangariSeba minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis

mixedviT. amisaTvis, saWiroa jer ganisazRvros minimaluri sasursaTo

kalaTis Rirebuleba.

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTa aris kvebis produqtebis gansazRvruli

normatiuli kalaTa, romelic Seicavs Sromisunariani asakis (15-65 weli)

mamakacis normaluri sicocxlisa da SromisunarianobisaTvis

fiziologiurad aucilebeli sakvebis raodenobas, misi Semadgeneli

elementebis (cilebis, cximebis da naxSirwylebis) da kaloriulobis

minimalur odenobas. samomxmareblo kalaTaSi arasasursaTo xarjebis

xvedriTi wili ganisazRvreba 30,0%-iT, xolo sursaTis xarjebis - 70,0%-iT.

aqedan gamomdinare, samomxmareblo kalaTis Rirebuleba gaiangariSeba

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebulebis gayofiT 0,7-ze, anu

samomxmareblo kalaTaSi sasursaTo xarjebis xvedriT wilze.

am xerxiT gaiangariSeba Sromisunariani mamakacis (15-65 w.) saarsebo

minimumi.

saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba:

1. saSualod erT momxmarebelze;

2. Sromisunarian mamakacze;

3. pensionerze; (pensionerebze)

4. bavSvze; (bavSvebze)

5. saSualo ojaxze;

6. erTsulian, orsulian da a.S. eqvs da metsulian ojaxze.

135

saarsebo minimumi gaiangariSeba qveynis mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve

qalebisa da kacebis mixedviT.

sasursaTo minimumi (kalaTi) gulisxmobs im kvebis produqtebis

(sursaTis) nakrebs, rac, Sesabamisi moxmarebis fiziologiuri normebis,

maTi kaloriulobisa da sabazro fasebis mixedviT, minimalurad mainc

saWiroa adamianis fizikuri arsebobisa da sicocxlisunarianobis

SesanarCuneblad. moxmarebis fiziologiur normebs adgenen Sesabamisi

samedicino, Sromisa da sxva samecniero-kvleviTi institutebi adamianTa

asakobrivi, sqesobrivi, cxovrebis bunebriv-klimaturi pirobebis, zne-

Cveulebebis, istoriuli tradiciebis, kulturisa da sxvaTa

gaTvaliswinebiT.12 magaliTad, ruseTSi saarsebo minimums angariSoben

bunebriv-klimaturi zonebis mixediTac.

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba

normatiuli da statistikuri meTodebiT. normatiuli meTodi

iTvaliswinebs moxmarebis minimalur, fiziologiur normebs, xolo

statistikuri-moxmarebis faqtobriv dones. moxmarebis rogorc

normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi doneebi arsebiTad gansxvavdeba asakis, sqesis,

saqmianobisa da rigi faqtorebis mixedviT. Sesabamisad rogorc

samomxmareblo, ise sasursaTo kalaTis Semadgenloba da Rirebuleba

gansxvavdeba momxmarebelTa sxvadasxva tipisaTvis. amis gamo minimaluri

(normatiuli) sasursaTo kalaTi da misi Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba

Sromisunariani mamakacisaTvis, xolo sxva tipis momxmarebelTa

minimaluri sasursaTo kalaTis Rirebuleba ganisazRvreba kaloriebze

moTxovnis normebis proporciulad.13

arasasursaTo saqonelze normativebi gaiangariSeba rogorc

moxmarebis moculobis, aseve cveTis vadebis mixedviT. ganisazRvreba aseve

momsaxurebis moxmarebis normativebi momsaxurebis iseT saxeebze,

rogoricaa: transporti, kavSirgabmuloba, ganaTleba, jandacva da a.S.

saarsebo minimumis rogorc normatiul, ise faqtobriv moculobaze

gavlenas axdens samomxmareblo fasebi, ramdenadac saarsebo minimumis

rogorc normatiuli, ise faqtobrivi moculoba ganisazRvreba

samomxmareblo kalaTaSi Semavali produqciis calkeuli saxeebis

gadamravlebiT maT fasze.

saarsebo minimumis sidides yovelTviurad angariSobs saqstati.

msoflio bankis mier, saarsebo minimumad dawesebulia dReSi 2,15 aSS

dolari, xolo absoluturi, e.i. ukiduresi siRaribis zRvrad -1,25 aSS

dolari dRiuri Semosavali.

12

b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006. gv. 27. 13

daviT kbilaZe. socialur-ekonomikuri statistika. Tb., 2005. gv. 239-240.

136

6. siRaribis statistikuri Seswavla; siRaribis donis, siRrmis da

simwvavis statistikuri maCveneblebi

siRaribe da misi masStabi cxovrebis dabali donis maCvenebelia.14

siRaribe aris Semosavlebis ukmarisoba adamianis materialuri da sulieri

moTxovnilebebis dasakmayofileblad, mis SesaZenad. Tumca Semosavlis

garkveuli sidide erTisTvis SeiZleba iyos sakmarisi, meorisTvis _

arasakmarisi. siRaribis SemTxvevaSi Semosavlebis ukmarisoba masobrivi

movlenaa.

siRaribis statistikuri daxasiaTebisaTvis saWiroa gairkves is

zRvari, romlis qvemoTac adamiani iTvleba Raribad, ufro Raribad da

Ratakad. Ratakebad iTvlebian adamianebi, romelTa moxmareba nols

uaxlovdeba.

statistikaSi ganasxvaveben siRaribis absolutur da fardobiT

zRvrebs. absolutur zRvrad miCneulia saarsebo minimumi, romelSic

gulisxmoben Sromisunariani asakis (15-dan 65 wlamde) mamakacis saarsebo

minimums,xolo fardobiT zRvrad miCneulia medianuri moxmarebis 60% da

medianuri moxmarebis 40%.medianuri moxmareba moxmarebis is sididea,

romelze naklebsac moixmars mosaxleobis 50%, xolo mosaxleobis

danarCeni 50% moixmars masze mets. maT mimarT procentebSi gamoiTvleba

siRaribis iseTi statistikuri maCveneblebi, rogoricaa: siRaribis done,

siRaribis siRrme, siRaribis simwvave.

siRaribis done. Raribebs miekuTvnebian is adamianebi, romlebic

moxmarebis mixedviT siRaribis zRvars qvemoT imyofebian. siRaribis done

gviCvenebs Raribebis xvedriT wils mTel mosaxleobaSi procentulad da

gamoiTvleba formuliT:15

q

H =n

100,

sadac H _ aris siRaribis donis maCvenebeli;

q _ Raribebis ricxovnoba;

n _ mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.

siRaribis dones sxvagvarad uwodeben Raribebis raodenobis indeqss.

siRaribis done aris zogadi maCvenebeli, romelic ver gviCvenebs

ramdeniT naklebia Raribi mosaxleobis moxmareba saarsebo minimumTan

SedarebiT. aRniSnul sxvaobas, anu Raribi mosaxleobis siRaribis

zRvramde daSorebis xvedriT wils gvixasiaTebs siRaribis siRrmis

maCvenebeli, romelic gamoiTvleba formuliT:16

14

b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 10 15

.gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 45 16 b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 46.

137

q

1

У

n Z

P( )

ii=1 ,

sadac: 1

P _ aris siRaribis siRrme;

_ siRaribis zRvari;

Уi _ Raribi mosaxleobis i -uri wevris moxmarebis moculoba;

q _ Raribi mosaxleobis ricxovnoba;

n_ mTeli mosaxleobis saerTo ricxovnoba.

formulis mricxveliT vadgenT Raribi mosaxleobis moxmarebis im

moculobas, romelic maT siRaribis zRvramde misaRwevad sWirdebaT.

faqtobrivad mricxveli gviCvenebs Raribebis moxmarebis deficits.

formulis mniSvneli, Zn warmoadgens mTeli mosaxleobis siRaribis

zRvris donis Sesabamis jamur moxmarebas. esaa moxmareba saarsebo

minimumis pirobebSi.

Tu or periodSi Semcirda siRaribis siRrmis maCvenebeli, es

migvaniSnebs Raribebis moxmarebis zrdaze da maTi mdgomareobis

gaumjobesebaze. magram aseT tendencias, e. i. moxmarebis moculobis zrdas

SeiZleba adgili hqondes Raribi mosaxleobis erTi nawilis kidev ufro

gaRaribebis da meore nawilis mdgomareobis gaumjobesebis, e.i. Raribebis

moxmarebis diferenciaciis gaRrmavebis pirobebSi. aRniSnul tendencias

siRaribis2 siRrmis maCvenebeli ver asaxavs. amisaTvis statistikis

praqtikaSi gamoiyeneba siRaribis simwvavis maCvenebeli. is gvixasiaTebs

RaribTa moxmarebaSi arsebul diferenciacias, e. i. variacias da

gamoisaxeba procentebSi. faqtobrivad es aris variaciis SefardebiTi

maCvenebeli. is gamoiTvleba formuliT:17

q q

2

У У

n nP 2 21 1( ) (1 )

i i

i=1 i=1

.

siRaribis maCveneblebi gamoiTvleba wliurad da kvartalebis

mixedviT mTeli mosaxleobis, aseve Sinameurneobebis mixedviT

Sinameurneobebis suladobis gaTvaliswinebiT qalaqisa da soflis

WrilSi.

saqme isaa, rom ojaxis suladobis zrdasTan erTad izrdeba e. w.

Tanacxovrebis efeqti. kerZod, aris xarjebi, romlebic ojaxis suladobis

zrdis kvalobaze nawildeba ojaxis wevrebze da erTsulian ojaxTan

SefardebiT, anu fardobiTad erT sulze mcirdeba, rac niSnavs

danaxarjebis ekonomias da ojaxis Semosavlis arapirdapir zrdas.

Sesabamisad mcirdeba siRaribis done. magram rogorc Cans, saqarTveloSi

17 b. gabiZaSvili. siRaribis portreti saqarTveloSi. Tb., 2006, gv. 47.

138

Tanacxovrebis efeqti moqmedebs samsuliani ojaxis CaTvliT. oTxsuliani

da ufro didi ojaxisTvis is ukve Zalas kargavs, radgan maTSi siRaribis

done imdenad mniSvnelovnad aRemateba erTsuliani, orsuliani da

samsuliani ojaxebis siRaribis dones, rom Tanacxovrebis efeqti masze

gavlenas veRar axdens.

7. mosaxleobis jandacvisa da ganaTlebis statistikuri maCveneblebi

janmrTelobis dacvis da socialuri uzrunvelyofis statistikis

amocanaa daaxasiaTos mocemul dargSi mimdinare movlenebi da procesebi,

rogorc mimdinare periodSi, ise dinamikaSi. aRniSnuli amocanebis

gadasawyvetad saWiro statistikur informacias saqstats angariSgebas

warmoudgens Sromis, janmrTelobis dacvisa da socialuri

uzrunvelyofis saministro gansazRvrul vadebSi.

mocemul dargs statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa sistemis

daxmarebiT, romelic moicavs: jandacvas da socuzrunvelyofas,

jandacvaSi dasaqmebul personals, mosaxleobis avadobas, pensionerTa

ricxovnobas.

saqarTvelos statistika jandacvis da socuzrunvelyofis

dasaxasiaTeblad sargeblobs Semdegi statistikuri maCveneblebiT:18

_ eqimebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ eqimebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis mixedviT;

_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba sul (aTasi) da 10 000

mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ saSualo samedicino kadrebis ricxovnoba calkeuli specialobebis

mixedviT;

_ saavadmyofoebis ricxvi;

_ saavadmyofos sawolebis ricxvi (aTasi);

_ erTi avadmyofis saavadmyofoSi yofnis xangrZlivoba (dRe);

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa ricxvi;

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebaTa simZlavre (erT

cvlaSi avadmyofTa miRebis ricxvi (SesaZlebloba));

_ ambulatoriul-poliklinikur dawesebulebebSi eqimTan mimarTvebis

ricxvi wlis ganmavlobaSi (maT Soris profilaqtikis CaTvliT

(aTasi));

_ mosaxleobis avadoba sul da daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis

mixedviT (aTasi SemTxveva);

_ avadobis done ganisazRvreba pirvelad dadgenili diagnoziT

avadmyofTa ricxovnobis SefardebiT mudmivi mosaxleobis saSualo

wliur ricxovnobasTan. avadobis done SeiZleba ganisazRvros 18

statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 84-94.

139

mosaxleobis calkeuli sqesobrivi da asakobrivi jgufebis, aseve

daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis mixedviT;

_ bavSvTa (0-14 wlis asakis) avadoba daavadebaTa ZiriTadi jgufebis

mixedviT (aTasi SemTxveva);

_ mosaxleobis avadoba infeqciuri daavadebebiT;

_ mosaxleobis avadoba tuberkuloziT;

_ mosaxleobis momsaxureba saswrafo daxmarebiT (sul, maT Soris:

ubeduri SemTxvevebis, ucabedi avad gaxdomis, mSobiarobis da sxva

garTulebebis SemTxvevaSi);

_ pensionerTa ricxovnoba.

ganaTlebis statistika Seiswavlis skolamdeli da zogad-

saganmanaTleblo, saSualo profesiuli da umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo

dawesebulebebis qsels da maT saqmianobas.

saqarTvelos ganaTlebis sistema eyrnoba ganaTlebis saerTaSoriso

klasifikators. aRniSnuli klasifikatori iTvaliswinebs ganaTlebis

donis Semdeg safexurebs:

nulovani safexuri _ skolamdeli dawesebuleba, rogorc swavlebis

sawyisi etapi;

pirveli safexuri _ dawyebiTi skola, moicavs 1-6-e klasebs;

meore safexuri _ arasruli saSualo (sabazo) skola, moicavs 7-9-e

klasebs;

mesame safexuri _ saSualo skola, moicavs 10, 11, 12-e klasebs. amave

safexurs miekuTvneba dawyebiTi profesiuli da saxelobo saswavleblebi;

meoTxe safexuri _ saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo

dawesebulebebi. 2009/2010 saswavlo wlidan saqarTveloSi isini aRar

funqcionireben;

mexuTe safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis pirveli etapi, moicavs

sabakalavro da samagistro momzadebas;

meeqvse safexuri _ umaRlesi ganaTlebis meore etapi. diplomis

Semdgomi ganaTlebis sistema. saqarTveloSi 2007 wlamde is

funqcionirebda aspiranturis, xolo 2007 wlis Semdeg _ doqturanturis

saxiT. doqtorantura funqcionirebs umaRles saswavleblebSi da

disertaciis dacvis Semdeg doqtorantebs aniWebs doqtoris akademiur

xarisxs.

Sesaswavl sagans ganaTlebis statistika axasiaTebs maCvenebelTa

sistemis daxmarebiT, romelTagan ZiriTadia:19

_ saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis ricxvi saxeebis mixedviT, maTSi

moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba;

_ moswavleTa (studentTa) ricxovnoba 10 000 mcxovrebze

gaangariSebiT;

19

statistikuri weliwdeuli 2009, Tb., 69-80. maCveneblebi motanilia saswavlo wlis

dasawyisisaTvis.

140

_ specialistTa gamoSveba 10 000 mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT;

_ zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis moswavleTa ganawileba

klasebis mixedviT;

_ pedagogebis raodenoba zogadsaganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebSi;

_ sajaro skolebis moswavleTa ganawileba swavlebis enis mixedviT;

_ moswavleTa ganTesva sajaro skolebSi;

_ saxelmwifo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo

dawesebulebebis ricxvi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba swavlebis

saxeebis (dRis da dauswrebel ganyofilebebze) mixedviT;

_ kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis

ricxvi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo saSualo profesiuli saganmanaTleblo

dawesebulebebi da maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi

jgufebis mixedviT;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis

ricxvi da maTSi studentTa ricxovnoba swavlebis saxeebis (dRis,

saramos da dauswrebel ganyofilebaze) mixedviT;

_ saxelmwifo da kerZo umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebi da

maTSi moswavleTa ricxovnoba dargobrivi jgufebis mixedviT;

_ umaRlesi saganmanaTleblo dawesebulebebis profesor-

maswavlebelTa ricxovnoba;

_ doqturanturaSi miReba, doqturantebis ricxovnoba da gamoSveba.

141

Tema 7

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika

saleqcio sakiTxebi:

1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebi;

2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli Ziri-

Tadi cnebebi da kategoriebi;

3. sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle

meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi sagareo ekonomikuri urTier-

Tobebis statistikis maCvenebelTa sistema;

4. sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri analizi;

5. ucxouri investiciebis statistika;

6. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiuli ganawilebis statis-

tika;

7. saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika;

8. sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika.

1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi

amocanebi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistika warmoadgens

ekonomikuri statistikis erT-erT mniSvnelovan dargs. misi Seswavlis

sfero gansakuTrebiT gafarTovda globalizaciis Tanamedrove etapze,

rodesac qveynebs Soris urTierToba ufro mWidro da mravalmxrivi gaxda.

amJamad ukve sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebi moicavs movlenaTa da

procesTa did simravles - rogorc ormxrivi, ise mravalmxrivi kavSirebiT.

konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT maTi mdgomareobis analizi moiTxovs

saTanado informaciis arsebobas. aseTi informaciis miRebis wyaros

warmoadgens swored sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis

warmoeba. igi moicavs savaWro-ekonomikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso

satransporto tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms,

samecniero-teqnikur urTierTobebs da sxv. maT Sesaxeb monacemebis miReba,

damuSaveba da raodenobrivi analizi statistikuri kvlevis erTiani

procesis mTavari etapebia. aqedan gamomdinare, sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistikis ZiriTadi amocanebia:

1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis Sesaxeb statistikur

monacemTa Segroveba konkretuli droisa da sivrcis mixedviT da

Sesabamisi sainformacio bazebis formireba;

2. miRebuli informaciis pirveladi damuSaveba;

142

3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis analizi, rac

gulisxmobs Semdegs:

3.1. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobis

Seswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

3.2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis struqturis

Seswavla dinamikaSi da adekvaturi maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

3.3. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebs Soris kavSiris

statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

4. ucxouri investiciebis moculobisa da struqturis Seswavla

dinamikaSi da adekvaturi statistikuri maCveneblebis gaangariSeba;

5. saxelmwifos sagareo valis statistikis warmoeba;

6. sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba;

7. saerTaSoriso satransporto gadazidvebis moculobisa da

struqturis Seswavla calkeuli qveynebisa da regionebis mixedviT;

8. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis procesebis moculobisa da

struqturis statistikuri prognozebis gaangariSeba;

9. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis maxasiaTebeli statistikuri

monacemebis publikacia.

aRniSnuli amocanebis Sesasruleblad sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistika axorcielebs statistikuri kvlevis yvela

cnobil etaps (statistikur dakvirvebas, monacemTa pirvelad damuSavebas

da maT analizs). am procesSi igi farTod iyenebs statistikuri

mecnierebis yvela meTods, dawyebuli SerCeviTi da mTliani dakvirvebidan

da damTavrebuli statistikuri prognozirebis mravalricxovani

meTodebiT.

2. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoyenebuli

ZiriTadi cnebebi, kategoriebi da maCvenebelTa sistema

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikaSi gamoiyeneba

mravali cneba da kategoria, romelTa Sinaarsis codna aucilebelia

Sesabamisi maCveneblebis sworad gaangariSebisaTvis. esenia: sagareo

vaWrobis balansi, eqsporti, importi, reeqsporti, sagareo vaWrobis

saldo, sagareo vaWrobis brunva, sasaqonlo klasifikatori, savaluto

kursi da sxv.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikur maCvenebelTa

sistema moicavs rogorc zogad, ise kerZo maCveneblebs. orive maTgani

gamoisaxeba naturalur da RirebulebiT zomis erTeulebSi. naturalur

erTeulebSi umetesad gamoisaxeba produqciis eqsportisa da importis

143

Semadgeneli calkeuli sasaqonlo poziciebi (nomenklatura),

saerTaSoriso tvirTbrunvis (calkeuli saxeobebis tvirTis mixedviT) da

mgzavrTbrunvis sidideebi konkretuli qveynebis mixedviT da a. S. amasTan

erTad, aRniSnuli da sxva krebsiTi maCveneblebi, rogoricaa sagareo

vaWrobis mTliani brunva, eqsportisa da importis sidideebi da sxva,

gamoisaxeba aseve RirebulebiT formaSi (rogorc wesi, aSS dolarSi).

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis movlenebisa da procesebis

Sesaxeb monacemTa mopovebisa da analizisas gamoiyeneba statistikuri

mecnierebis yvela cnobili meTodi, kerZod: statistikuri dakvirveba,

dajgufeba, SefardebiTi da saSualo sidideebi, indeqsebi, droiTi

mwkrivebi, SerCeviTi dakvirveba, korelaciur-regresiuli meTodebi da sxv.

3. sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis warmoebis mokle

meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi*

sagareo vaWrobis oficialuri statistikis monacemTa formireba

xorcieldeba gaerTianebuli erebis organizaciis statistikis

departamentis rekomendaciebis gaTvaliswinebiT SemuSavebuli

meTodologiis, “saqonliT saerTaSoriso vaWrobis statistika,

saxelmZRvanelo SemdgenelTaTvis” (gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu

iorki, 2004 w.) da uaxlesi rekomendaciebis „saqonliT saerTaSoriso

vaWrobis statistika, koncefciebi da gansazRvrebebi, 2010 w.“

(gaerTianebuli erebis organizacia, niu iorki, 2011 w.) Sesabamisad. sagareo

vaWrobaSi saqarTvelo iyenebs aRricxvis “zogad meTods”, rac niSnavs imas,

rom saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvis ZiriTadi kriteriumia mis mier

qveynis ekonomikuri teritoriis gadakveTa. eqsportis moculobaSi

aRiricxeba rogorc erovnuli warmoSobis produqciis gatana

sazRvargareT, ise importirebuli saqonlis reeqsporti. importSi

igulisxmeba qveyanaSi produqciis Semotana da eqsportirebuli saqonlis

reimporti. eqsporti aRricxulia FOB, anu eqsportiori qveynis franko-

sazRvris fasebSi (moicavs eqsportiori qveynis sazRvramde tvirTis

transportirebisa da satransporto saSualebis bortze datvirTvis

xarjebs), xolo importi _ CIF, anu importiori qveynis franko-sazRvris

fasebSi (garda fasisa, moicavs aseve saerTaSoriso fraxts da dazRvevis

------------------------------- * saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri versiis mixedviT.

144

xarjebsac). partniori qveynis dadgenis kriteriumebia: importis dros -

saqonlis warmoSobis an gamomgzavni qveyana, eqsportis dros ki - saboloo

daniSnulebis qveyana.

sagareo savaWro operaciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad wyaros

warmoadgens satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa baza, romelsac

statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri yovelTviurad iRebs saqarTvelos

finansTa saministros Semosavlebis samsaxuridan. amasTan, informacia

satransporto saSualebebiT vaWrobis Sesaxeb damatebiT miiReba Sss-is

momsaxurebis saagentodan, xolo bunebrivi airisa da eleqtroenergiis

eqsport-importis Sesaxeb _ Sesabamisad Sps ~saqarTvelos gazis

transportirebis kompania~-dan da Sps ,,saqarTvelos saxelmwifo

eleqtrosistema“-dan.

saqstati Semosavlebis samsaxuridan miRebuli informaciis safuZvelze

axorcielebs:

- satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis monacemTa bazis kontrols ZiriTadi

informaciuli velebis mixedviT - saqonlis kodi, fasi, wona, damatebiTi

zomis erTeuli, gamgzavni/mimRebi qveynis kodi;

- ZiriTadi saqonlis mixedviT zRvruli fasis kontrols da

Sesabamisad, raodenobis, Rirebulebis an damatebiTi zomis erTeulis

koreqtirebas;

- im saqonlis amoRebas Semosavlebis samsaxuris monacemTa bazidan,

romelic ar ganekuTvneba saqonliT sagareo vaWrobas (mimoqcevaSi myofi

fasiani qaRaldebi, banknotebi da monetebi; droebiT Semotanili da

gatanili saqoneli (maT Soris saerTaSoriso gamofenebze); diplomatiuri

da sxva saxis tvirTebi, romlebic saerTaSoriso meTodologiis mixedviT

ar Sedis saqonliT sagareo vaWrobaSi).

saqonlis eqsport-importis aRricxvisaTvis gamoiyeneba “sagareo

ekonomikuri saqmianobis sasaqonlo nomenklatura (sesn 2012)”, romelic

agebulia saqonlis aRwerisa da kodirebis harmonizebuli sistemis bazaze.

RirebulebiTi maCveneblebi mocemulia aSS dolarebSi. statistikuri

Rirebulebis gaangariSeba aSS dolarebSi xorcieldeba sabaJo organoebis

mier satvirTo-sabaJo deklaraciebis gaformebis momentSi Tbilisis

bankTaSoris savaluto birJaze dadgenili oficialuri gacvliTi kursiT.

saqarTveloSi sagareo vaWrobis statistikis droiTi (dinamikuri)

mwkrivebi xelmisawvdomia 1995 wlidan, rogorc calkeuli qveynebis, ise

sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi. monacemebi muSavdeba da sistematurad

qveyndeba yovelTviuri periodulobiT. 2012 wlidan saqstati axorcielebs

eqspres informaciis gavrcelebas saangariSo Tvis dasrulebidan me-16

dRes, romelic moicavs eqsportis, importis, sagareo savaWro brunvisa da

savaWro balansis agregirebul monacemebs. rac Seexeba detalur

145

informacias calkeuli qveynebisa da sasaqonlo nomenklaturis WrilSi, is

qveyndeba saangariSo Tvis dasrulebidan 24-e dRes.

4. sagareo vaWrobis moculobisa da struqturis statistikuri

analizi

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi farTo

sferoa sagareo vaWrobis statistika. igi gulisxmobs saqonlis moZraobas

qveynis gareT da piriqiT, ,,danarCeni msofliodan“ mocemul qveyanaSi.

saqonlis moZraobis pirveli mimarTuleba aris eqsporti, xolo meore –

importi. aqve aucilebelia reeqsportis cnebis ganmartebac: reeqsporti

aris romelime qveynidan importirebuli produqciis gatana sxva qveyanaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistika reeqsports aRricxavs eqsportis mTlian

moculobaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikaSi erT-erTi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia

aseve sagareo vaWrobis saldo, romelic warmoadgens sxvaobas eqsportisa

da importis sidideebs Soris. igi SeiZleba iyos pozitiuri (dadebiTi,

aqtiuri), rodesac eqsportis moculoba aWarbebs imports da negatiuri

(uaryofiTi, pasiuri), rodesac sapirispiro SemTxvevaa, anu importis

sidide metia eqsportis moculobaze.

sagareo vaWrobis statistika Seiswavlis eqsport-importis rogorc

mTlian moculobas dinamikaSi, aseve calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi

jgufebis mixedviT (magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis

qveynebi da a.S.

sagareo vaWrobis statistikis Seswavlis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani

sferoa aseve produqciis eqsport-importis struqturis Seswavla

sasaqonlo jgufebis mixedviT. maTi raodenobrivi asaxva xdeba rogorc

dinamikaSi, ise calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi jgufebis mixedviT.

eqsportisa da importis moculobisa da struqturis maCveneblebi

gaiangariSeba rogorc naturalur, ise RirebulebiT gamosaxulebaSi.

sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mraval statistikur meTodTan erTad

farTod gamoiyeneba SefardebiTi maCveneblebi. maTgan erT-erTi

mniSvnelovania sagareo vaWrobis moculoba saSualod 1 mcxovrebze,

romlis gaangariSeba xorcieldeba Semdegnairad:

,S

QK br.

sadac Q aris sagareo vaWrobis mTliani brunva;

S - mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnoba.

sagareo vaWrobis analizSi mniSvnelovani maCvenebelia aseve

146

eqsportis saSualo sidide erT mcxovrebze gaangariSebiT, romelic ase

gamoiTvleba:

eqsp.KS

E ,

sadac E aris eqsportis moculoba;


sagareo vaWrobis analizisas aucilebelia aseve importis moculobis

SefardebiTi sididis gaangariSeba, romelic Semdegnairad gamoiTvleba:

SK

Imimp. ,

sadac Im aris importis moculoba;


importisa da eqsportis moculobebs Soris sxvaobas ewodeba sagareo

vaWrobis saldo, romelic mniSvnelovan maxasiaTebels warmoadgens

nebismieri qveynis sagareo vaWrobis analizSi. Tu am absolutur sidides

gavyofT mosaxleobis saSualo ricxovnobaze, miviRebT sagareo vaWrobis

saldos SefardebiT maCvenebels, romelic miuTiTebs sagareo vaWrobis

deficiturobis an proficiturobis mniSvnelovnebaze. igi ase

gaiangariSeba:

S

NK saldo ,

sadac N aris sagareo vaWrobis saldos absoluturi sidide;


sagareo vaWrobis statistikur analizSi mniSvnelovan maCvenebels

warmoadgens importisa da eqsportis moculobis Tanafardoba. igi

SeiZleba gaviangariSoT 2 wesiT, kerZod: pirvel SemTxvevaSi importis

moculoba gaiyofa eqsportis sidideze, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi ki

piriqiT. meore wesis gamoyeneba mizanSewonilia im SemTxvevaSi, rodesac

eqsportis moculoba metia importis sidideze. am maCveneblebis gamoTvlis

wesi aseTia:

EK

ImTanaf. ;

sadac Im aris importis moculoba;

E - eqsportis sidide.

saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi mricxveli da mniSvneli Seicvlian adgilebs.

aqve unda aRvniSnoT, rom es maCvenebeli SeiZleba gamoiTvalos

koeficientis an procentis saxiT.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri

monacemebis mixedviT, saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis ganzogadebuli

maCveneblebi 2007 – 2015 wlebisaTvis aseTia (ix. Semdegi cxrili):

147

cxrili 1. saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba

(mln aSS dolari)

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris monacemTa banki.

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

რ ო ჭრო

რ 6444 7797 5634 6935 9247 10220 10433 11463 9935

ო

რ რ რ

ორ

1232 1495 1134 1677 2189 2377 2911 2861 2205

ო

რ რ რ

ორ

5212 6302 4500 5257 7058 7842 8023 8602 7730

რ ო ჭრო

ო -3980 -4806 -3367 -3580 -4869 -5465 -5112 -5741 -5525

Tanamedrove etapze saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobaSi evrokavSirisEqveynebi

mniSvnelovani partniorebi arian, Tumca maT jamur sidides aRemateba

damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobrobis (dsT) sagareo savaWro

brunvis moculoba.

sainteresoa aseve saqarTvelos sagareo vaWrobis mTlian

moculobaSi eqsportis sididis statistikuri analizi rogorc calkeuli

qveynebis, ise maTi jgufebis mixedviT. amis sailustraciod movitanoT

Semdegi diagrama:

148

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri.

rogorc am diagramidan Cans, 2016 wlis pirvel naxevarSi

saqarTvelos eqsportSi umsxviles savaWro partniori qveynebis jgufs

warmoadgens dsT, romlis wilad modis eqsportis mTliani moculobis 30

procenti. pirvel 3 adgilzea azerbaijani, ruseTi da somxeTi. eqsportis

mTlian moculobaSi Semdegia evrokavSiris qveynebi, romlebic 24 procents

ikaveben. maTgan pirvel 3 adgilze arian bulgareTi, italia da italia.

2003 wels savaWro brunvis moculobis saSualo sididem evrokavSiris

wevr erT qveyanaze gaangariSebiT Seadgina 30,7 mln. aSS dolari (es

maCvenebeli gamoTvlilia martivi ariTmetikuli saSualos formuliT),

anu: n

y

Y

i . Tu am konkretul saSualo sidides aviRebT dajgufebis

safuZvlad, maSin miviRebT qveynebis or jgufs: 1. im qveynebis jgufi,

romlebsac saqarTvelosTan aqvs saSualoze maRali sididis savaWro

brunvis moculoba; 2. qveynebis meore jgufi, romlebsac aqvT saSualoze

dabali savaWro brunvis moculoba. Cveni azriT, aseTi saSualo

maCvenebeli SeiZleba miviCnioT savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis zogad

kriteriumad. am SemTxvevaSi misi konkretuli piroba aseTia: Tu saSualo

sidideze maRali moculoba eqneba gansaxilveli qveynebis mTliani

raodenobis naxevarze mets, maSin savaWro urTierTobis ganviTarebis

masStabi (sazRvrebi) farToa. winaaRmdeg SemTxvevaSi savaWro urTierTobis

ganviTareba arasakmarisi da uTanabroa. es bolo piroba Seesabameba

149

amJamad saqarTvelosa da EUEdsTU-s wevr qveynebs Soris savaWro

urTierTobis ganviTarebis dones: is jer kidev arasakmarisia.

5. ucxouri investiciebis statistika

nebismier qveyanaSi investiciebisaTvis xelsayreli garemos

Seqmna prioritetul mimarTulebad aris miCneuli. Ees gansakuTrebiT

mniSvnelovania saqarTvelosaTvis, roca qveynis ekonomikuri da

politikuri ganviTareba da saerTaSoriso, gansakuTrebiT evropuli,

integraciisaken swrafva xelisuflebis interesis sferoSia moqceuli.

sainvesticio saqmianoba investiciebis dabandebis, anu

investirebis realizaciisaTvis praqtikuli qmedebebis erTobliobaa.

sainvesticio saqmianobis monawileebad iTvlebian fizikuri, aseve

iuridiuli pirebi, maT Soris ucxoelebi, agreTve qveynebi da

saerTaSoriso organizaciebi. investiciebi dabandebis saxeobebis

mixedviT iyofa finansur dabandebad da investiciebad arafinansur

aqtivebSi. dabandebebis wyaroebis mixedviT investiciebi iyofa

sakuTar da nasesxebad. sakuTrebis formebis mixedviT _ adgilobriv

da ucxour investiciebad.

ganviTarebul qveynebSi investiciebis umetes nawils Seadgens

finansuri investiciebi. amis gamo praqtikaSi zogjer gamoiyeneba

investiciebis SedarebiT viwro gageba, romelic Semoifargleba

mxolod finansuri investiciebiT. finansuri dabandebebi warmoadgens

fuladi saxsrebis, materialuri da sxva faseulobebis sxva

iuridiuli piris fasian qaRaldebSi dabandebas; agreTve, dabandebebs

saxelmwifo da adgilobrivi sesxebis obligaciebSi, qveynis

teritoriaze Seqmnili sxva iuridiuli pirebis kapitalSi, ucxouri

sawarmos kapitalSi da a. S., aseve erTi iuridiuli piris mier meore

iuridiuli pirisaTvis gacemul sesxebs.

investiciebs arafinansur aqtivebSi miekuTvneba: investiciebi

ZiriTad kapitalSi, danaxarjebi kapitalur SekeTebaze, investiciebi

miwis nakveTisa da bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebis SesaZenad,

investiciebi aramaterialur aqtivebSi (kompiuteruli programuli

produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, samecniero-kvleviTi da sacdel-

sakonstruqtoro samuSaoebi da a. S.), aseve investiciebi materialuri

sabrunavi saSualebebis maragebis Sesaqmnelad.

ZiriTad kapitalSi investiciebi warmoadgens im xarjebis

erTobliobas, romelic mimarTulia ZiriTadi kapitalis SesaZenad,

Sesaqmnelad da kvlavwarmoebisaTvis. kvlavwarmoebis struqturasa da

ZiriTadi fondebis specifikis Sesabamisad, investiciebi ZiriTad

150

kapitalSi ganisazRvreba rogorc danaxarjebi samSeneblo da

samontaJo samuSaoebze, saproeqto-saZiebo samuSaoebze,

mowyobilobebis SeZenaze, sawarmoo instrumentebisa da sameurneo

inventaris SeZenaze, mravalwliani kulturebisa da tyeebis

gaSenebaze da danarCen kapitalur samuSaoebze.

aramaterialur aqtivebSi igulisxmeba: kompiuteruli programuli

produqtebi, patentebi, licenziebi, savaWro markebi, savaWro niSnebi,

miwis nakveTebiT sargeblobis ufleba, bunebaTsargeblobis obieqtebi,

saavtoro uflebebi, saorganizacio danaxarjebi da sxva.

Tavis mxriv, investiciebi SeiZleba iyos sarisko, pirdapiri da

portfeluri. sarisko investiciebi dakavSirebulia iseTi kapitalis

arsebobasTan, romelic warmoadgens investiciebs axali aqciebis

gamoSvebis formiT. es investiciebi Caideba iseTi saxis obieqtebze an

saqmianobis sferoSi, romelic dakavSirebulia did riskTan. zemoT

xsenebuli kapitali investirdeba erTmaneTisagan damoukidebel

proeqtebSi Cadebuli saxsrebis daCqarebulad amoRebis mizniT.

kapitaldabandebani, rogorc wesi, xorcieldeba mwarmoebeli

klientis aqciaTa nawilis SesyidviT, an masze sesxis gacemiT.

kapitalis riskiani dabandeba ganpirobebulia wvrili firmebis

dafinansebiT axali teqnologiebis sferoSi.

pirdapiri investiciebi warmoadgenen dabandebebs sameurneo

obieqtis sawesdebo kapitalSi Semosavlis miRebisa da investiciebis

marTvaSi monawileobis uflebis miRebis mizniT.

portfeluri investiciebi gulisxmobs fasiani qaRaldebisa da

sxva aqtivebis SeZenas es aris sxvadasxva sainvesticio RirebulebaTa

erToblioba, romelnic gvevlinebian ZiriTad instrumentad

konkretuli sainvesticio miznis misaRwevad. portfelSi SeiZleba

Sevides erTi tipis Ffasiani qaRaldebi, mag: aqciebi, an sxvadasxva

investiciuri Rirebulebebi, mag: obligaciebi, Semnaxveli da

sadepozito serTifikatebi, sagirao mowmobebi, sadazRvevo polisebi

da sxva.

7.5.1. investiciebis statistikuri Seswavlis amocanebi da

informaciis wyaroebi

151

investiciebs ekonomikisa da mTlianad qveynis ganviTarebisaTvis

udidesi mniSvneloba eniWeba nebismier saxelmwifoSi. es

gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania iseTi qveynisaTvis, rogoric

saqarTveloa, gansakuTrebiT maSin, roca ekonomikis ama Tu im dargSi

seriozuli cvlilebebi mimdinareobs da ikveTeba is prioritetebi,

romlebic aucilebelia qveynis Semdgomi ganviTarebisaTvis.

erT-erT aseT prioritetad miCneulia adgilobrivi Tu ucxouri

investiciebis ganxorcielebis xelSewyoba, romelTa raodenobasa da

xarisxze didadaa damokidebuli saerTod qveynis ekonomikis

ganviTareba. ganxorcielebuli investiciebis sworad aRricxva xels

uwyobs im prioritetuli dargebis warmoCenas, romlebSic

investiciebis ganxorcieleba didi finansuri efeqtis momtania

qveynisaTvis.

investiciebis statistikuri Seswavla saSualebas iZleva sworad

gadaiWras mis winaSe dasmuli Semdegi amocanebi: investiciebis

moculobisa da struqturis absoluturi, SefardebiTi da saSualo

maCveneblebis, aseve maTi cvlilebis tempebis gaangariSeba;

investiciebis wyaroebisa da sferoebis analizi; investiciebis

ekonomikuri efeqtianobisa da sainvesticio saqmianobis intensivobis

maCvenebelTa gansazRvra.

statistikis amocana mdgomareobs investiciebis moculobis,

struqturis, Semadgenlobis, misi riskis gawevis SeswavlaSi da

dinamikur analizSi, aseve Sesabamisi prognozebis SemuSavebaSi.

investiciebis Sesaxeb sruli, Sesadarisi da drouli

statistikuri monacemebis miReba ekonomikuri analizis Catarebisa da

qveynis swori ekonomikuri politikis winapirobas warmoadgens. aseT

statistikur monacemebs gansakuTrebuli mniSvneloba aqvs rogorc

qveynis ekonomikisaTvis, ise calkeuli firmebisaTvis.

investiciebis Sesaxeb statistikuri informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis

monacemebi, firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi, administraciuli

monacemebi (magaliTad, monacemebi uZravi qonebis saxelmwifo

registraciis Sesaxeb) da sxv.

firmebis sabuRaltro angariSebi Seicavs informacias

investiciebis finansuri maCveneblebis Sesaxeb, saangariSo periodis

dasawyisisa da dasasrulis mdgomareobiT, maTi saxeebad ganawilebis

(aqciebi, obligaciebi, sesxebi da a. S.), saangariSo periodis

ganmavlobaSi grZelvadiani investiciebis dafinansebis saSualebebis

moZraobis, mimdinare, sainvesticio da safinanso saqmianobis sferoSi

152

fuladi saSualebebis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis, ZiriTadi

kapitalis Semosavlebisa da gasavlebis Sesaxeb.

saxelmwifo statistikuri dakvirvebis farglebSi investiciebis

Sesaxeb cnobebis Segroveba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad, xolo

calkeuli monacemebis mixedviT _ yovelTviurad. statistikuri

dakvirvebis formebi daegzavneba uklebliv yvela organizacias,

romlebic ar warmoadgenen mcire subieqtebs (sawarmoebs). mcire

sawarmoo subieqtebi gamoikvlevian SerCeviT, gamartivebuli formiT,

SerCeviTi statistikuri meTodis gamoyenebiT. Semdeg ki SerCevis

Sedegebi vrceldeba mcire sawarmoTa mTel erTobliobaze.

statistikuri dakvirveba saSualebas iZleva miviRoT Semdegi

saxis informacia:

1. saangariSo periodSi finansuri investiciebis nakadebisa da maTi

sididis Sesaxeb am periodis bolos (rogorc mocemuli

organizaciis mier sxva erTeulebSi mimarTuli investiciebis, ise

mocemul organizaciaSi Cadebuli investiciebis mixedviT);

2. organizaciis mier arafinansuri aqtivebis Seqmnasa da SeZenaze

mimarTuli investiciebis nakadebis Sesaxeb (maTi saxeobebis

WrilSi);

3. investiciebisaTvis gamonaxul saSualebaTa wyaroebis Sesaxeb.

sawarmoebidan miRebul cnobebs ZiriTad kapitalSi

investiciebis Sesaxeb emateba gaangariSebiTi monacemebi im

investiciebis Sesaxeb, romlebic xorcieldeba fizikuri pirebis mier.

investiciebis statistikis formireba moiTxovs adre arsebul

maCvenebelTa sistemis srulyofas. maCvenebelTa klasifikacia

pirobiTad SeiZleba movaxdinoT Semdegi jgufebis mixedviT: 1)

proeqtis efeqtianobis analizis, 2) sawarmos finansuri

mdgomareobisa da 3) investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi.

investiciuri proeqtis efeqtianobis maCveneblebi SeiZleba

daiyos or ZiriTad jgufad: sawarmoo saqmianobis efeqtianobis

maCveneblebad da sawarmos finansuri mdgomareobis maCveneblebad.

investiciebis efeqtianobis maCveneblebs miekuTvneba:

1. yovelwliuri Semosavlis saangariSgebo done

ganisazRvreba, rogorc sxvaoba saerTo investiciebsa da maT

calkeul Rirebulebas Soris proeqtis sicocxlisunarianobis

vadisaTvis.

2. proeqtis aTvisebis periodi. am periodSi iTvleba is dro

(weli, Tve), romlis ganmavlobaSic sawarmos sawarmoo saqmianobidan

ifareba investiciebze danaxarji. aTvisebis vada, Cveulebriv izomeba

153

wlobiT an TveobiT da gamoiTvleba investiciebis (gadasaxadebis)

Tanxis SefardebiT sawarmoo saqmianobis yovelwliur SemosavlebTan.

sainvesticio procesi yovelTvis raRac zomis riskTanaa

dakavSirebuli. axali saqmis dawyebisas, warmoebaSi fulis

dabandebisas, aqciebis paketis SeZenisas, birJaze TamaSisas da a. S.,

riski _ es aris saSiSroeba realuri dabandebuli saxsrebis

dakargvisa, an TiToeul dabandebul larze gaTvaliswinebulze

ufro dabali mogebis miRebis albaToba, agreTve, kapitalis

gaufasureba inflaciuri procesebis Sedegad. mewarmem unda

gaiTvaliswinos, rom is riskavs. investirebis saboloo Sedegi

SeiZleba ar iyos iseTi, rogorsac warmoidgenda investori dagegmvis

dros.

risks SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT, agreTve, SesaZlebeli

moTxovnileba damatebiT, adre gauTvaliswinebel, anu ganusazRvrel

dabandebebze, situaciis gauTvaliswinebel cvlilebebTan

dakavSirebiT. gauTvaliswinebeli danakargebisa da danaxarjebis

riskTan dakavSirebulia ara mxolod investoris gamoCena axal

bazarze, aramed _ misi wasvlac bazridan saqonlis daZvelebis da

masze moTxovnilebis dacemis gamo.

sainvesticio riskis daxasiaTeba da misi regulirebis

SesaZleblobebi SeiZleba miRebul iqnes statistikuri mecnierebis

meTodebis gamoyenebiT. maT ricxvs miekuTneba aseve is meTodebi,

romlebic dafuZnebulni arian statistikuri gadawyvetilebis

Teoriaze (riskis Teoria) da statistikuri cdebis meTodi (e. w.

“monte-karlos” meTodi). statistikuri gadawyvetilebebis Teoria

saSualebas iZleva alternatiuli variantebidan arCeul iqnes

optimaluri sabazro strategia ganusazRvrelobis pirobebSi,

statistikuri dakvirvebis Sedegad miRebuli Sedegebis mixedviT.

optimalurad ki iTvleba is gadawyvetileba, romelic uzrunvelyofs

riskis minimizacias.

7.5.2. pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis (FDI) moculobis gaangariSebis

mokle meTodologia da praqtika saqarTveloSi (saqstatis oficialuri

versiis mixedviT)

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis

erT-erT mniSvnelovan Semadgenel komponents warmoadgens. saqarTveloSi

154

misi moculobis gaangariSeba daiwyo saxelmwifo statistikis samsaxurma

1997 wlidan, rasac safuZvlad daedo saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis

mier SemuSavebuli meTodologia ,,sagadasaxdelo balansis

saxelmZRvanelo”, mexuTe gamocema; vaSingtoni, 1993 weli.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis ZiriTad

wyaroebs warmoadgens saqstatis mier warmoebuli kvartaluri da wliuri

periodulobis statistikuri gamokvleva sawarmoTa sagareo ekonomikuri

saqmianobis Sesaxeb. garda amisa, informacia miiReba saqarTvelos

ekonomikuri da mdgradi ganviTarebis saministrodan da aseve aWaris

avtonomiuri respublikis finansTa da ekonomikis saministrodan

ararezidenti subieqtebis mier privatizebuli obieqtebis Sesaxeb.

saqarTvelos erovnuli banki awarmoebs saqarTvelos safinanso

sferoSi, kerZod, komerciul bankebSi, sadazRvevo kompaniebsa da

mikrosafinanso organizaciebSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri

investiciebis Sesaxeb informaciis Segrovebas, damuSavebas da

yovelkvartalurad saqstatisaTvis miwodebas.

sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb statistikuri gamokvleva

amJamad moicavs saqarTvelos yvela regions (arakontrolirebadi

teritoriebis garda) da 2000-mde samewarmeo subieqts. gamosakvlev

obieqtTa SerCeva xorcieldeba Semdegi ZiriTadi kriteriumebis mixedviT:

- sawarmos hyavs ararezidenti damfuZnebeli;

- axorcielebs eqsport-importis operaciebs;

- ararezidentebisgan aqvs aRebuli sesxi an gacemuli maTze;

- depozitebi aqvs ganTavsebuli ararezident bankebSi;

- flobs ararezidenti sawarmos sawesdebo an saaqcio kapitalis 10%-s da

mets;

- ararezidentebs uwevs an maTgan iRebs momsaxurebas.

yovelkvartalurad xorcieldeba SerCeul sawarmoTa ganaxleba maTi

saqmianobisa da damfuZnebelTa klasifikaciis mixedviT.

pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis ZiriTadi komponentebia: saaqcio

kapitali, reinvesticia da sxva kapitali.

1997 wlidan statistikuri monacemebi muSavdeba investori qveynebis

WrilSi. 2007 wlidan gamokvlevis instrumentarSi Sevida garkveuli

cvlilebebi, ramac saSualeba mogvca monacemebi dagvemuSavebina ekonomikis

seqtorebis WrilSi, rasac safuZvlad udevs sawarmoTa ZiriTadi

saqmianobis mixedviT dayofa. monacemTa sxvadasxva informaciuli

wyaroebis safuZvelze SesaZlebelia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

monacemTa gaangariSeba informaciis wyaroebis mixedviT.

winaswari monacemebis gamoqveyneba xorcieldeba yovelkvartalurad

saangariSo periodis dasrulebidan 70-e dRes. oTxi kvartalis SejamebiT

miiReba winaswari wliuri monacemebi, romlis dazustebac warmoebs

wliuri gamokvlevis monacemebis safuZvelze momdevno wlis 15 agvistos.

155

dazustebuli monacemebi yovelTvis gansxvavebulia winaswarisagan. amis

erT-erTi yvelaze mTavari mizezi isaa, rom sawarmoebi waradgenen

dazustebuli mogeba-zaralis maCveneblebs.

winaswar da dazustebul monacemebs Soris sxvaoba dinamikaSi ar

warmoadgens iSviaTobas, radgan pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi ar aris

mxolod fiqsirebul aqtivebSi ganxorcielebuli investicia. igi finansuri

kategoriaa da misi dadebiTi da uaryofiTi mniSvnelobac saerTaSoriso

meTodologiur CarCoebSi da standartebSi Tavsdeba.

zogadad pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Semcirebis mizezebi

SeiZleba iyos: ararezidentis mier wilis daTmoba rezidentisaTvis,

ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris reklasifikacia portfelis

investorad, rezidenti sawarmos mier ararezidenti pirdapiri investoris

mimarT arsebuli valdebulebebis Semcireba da sxva.

saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuris oficialuri

monacemebis mixedviT (konkretuli wyaro: statistikuri gamokvleva

„sagareo ekonomikuri saqmianobis Sesaxeb“), 2013 wlis II kvartalSi

ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis mixedviT umsxvilesi

seqtorebis wilma 96 procenti Seadgina. yvelaze meti pirdapiri ucxouri

investicia energetikis seqtorSi ganxorcielda da 66 mln. aSS dolari

Seadgina, rac mTliani pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis 29 procentia.

meore adgilze imyofeba damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 59 mln. aSS dolariT,

xolo mesameze - transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 46 mln. aSS dolariT.

ekonomikis seqtorebis mixedviT 2013 wlis II kvartalSi

ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi procentulad ase

ganawilda:

- energetika 29%;

- damamuSavebeli mrewveloba 25%;

- transporti da kavSirgabmuloba 20%;

- mSenebloba 17%;

- safinanso seqtori 6%;

- ekonomikis sxva seqtorebi 3%.

oficialuri statistika Seagrovebs, daamuSavebs da gaaanalizebs

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis Sesaxeb

raodenobriv monacemebs Tveebis, kvartalebis Tu wlebis mixedviT da,

amasTan erTad, ekonomikis seqtorebis WrilSi. garda amisa, aseTi

statistika iwarmoeba teritoriis mixedviTac, anu konkretulad romeli

qveynidan ra moculobis pirdapiri investiciebia Semosuli. am etapebis

ganxorcielebis Semdeg ukve qveyndeba miRebuli Sedegebi.

saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebuli pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis

moculobis mixedviT ranJirebuli qveynebis pirveli aTeuli gamosaxulia

Semdeg diagramaze:

156

wyaro: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri.

motanili diagramidan naTlad Cans saqarTvelos ZiriTadi investori

qveynebi, Tumca isini SeiZleba.

6. sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiuli ganawilebis

statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani sferoa am urTierTobebis geografiuli (teritoriuli)

ganawilebis Seswavla. igi moicavs ara mxolod sagareo vaWrobas, aramed

samecniero-teqnikur, safinanso-sabanko, saerTaSoriso satransporto

tvirTbrunvas da mgzavrTbrunvas, saerTaSoriso turizms, ucxour

investiciebs da sxv. igi gulisxmobs am procesebis amsaxveli maCveneblebis

dajgufebas calkeuli qveynebis da maTi gaerTianebebis mixedviT. cal-

calke aRiricxeba saeqsporto da saimporto urTierTobebi, gamoiTvleba

calkeuli qveynebis xvedriwilebi da xdeba maTi ranJireba. amis Sedegad

gamoiyofa 10 umsxvilesi qveyana rogorc eqsportis, ise importis mixedviT

(saqstatis praqtikidan gamomdinare). aseTi analizi xorcieldeba aseve

produqciis calkeuli jgufebis mixedviT da gamoiyofa umsxvilesi

sasaqonlo jgufebi eqsportisa da importis mixedviT. rogorc wesi,

ranJireba xdeba bolo (uaxlesi) monacemebis mixedviT.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis ZiriTadi

amocanebs miekuTvneba:

157

1. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTan

ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da dinamikis Seswavla konkretuli

mimarTulebebis (sferoebis) mixedviT, rogoricaa, magaliTad, eqsport-

importi, safinanso-sakredito, sainvesticio da sxva saqmianobebi;

2. sazRvargareTis calkeul qveynebTan da maT gaerTianebebTan

ekonomikur urTierTobaTa struqturisa da dinamikis Seswavla

konkretuli procesebis mixedviT;

3. gansazRvros sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa efeqtianoba

partniori qveynebisa da maT gaerTianebebis mixedviT, calkeuli

mimarTulebebis WrilSi;

4. GgaiangariSos sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa moculobisa da

struqturis sxvadasxva vadiani prognozebi calkeuli qveynebisa da maTi

gaerTianebebis mixedviT da aseve calkeuli mimarTulebebis WrilSi.

sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa optimaluri geografiuli

ganlageba xels uwyobs sxva saxelmwifoebTan ekonomikuri

TanamSromlobis Semdgom gaRrmavebas da gafarToebas, sasaqonlo nakadebis

teritoriuli ganawilebis gaumjobesebas ama Tu im qveynis ekonomikuri

Taviseburebebis gaTvaliswinebiT, satransporto gadazidvebis

optimizacias da sxva mniSvnelovani amocanebis gadawyvetas.

mravali qveynis oficialuri statistikis Tanamedrove praqtikaSi ukve

farTod gamoiyeneba sagareo ekonomikur urTierTobaTa procesebis Sesaxeb

monacemTa miRebis, damuSavebisa da analizis saerTaSoriso rekomendaciebi

da meTodologia, maT Soris teritoriul WrilSi Seswavlisas. am

SemTxvevaSi gamoiyeneba sxvadasxva majgufebeli niSnebi da kerZod,

qveynebis oficialuri samarTlebrivi gaerTianebis statusi, rogoricaa,

magaliTad, evrokavSiris qveynebi, damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa

Tanamegobrobis qveynebi, Savi zRvis auzis qveynebi da sxv. garda amisa,

SesaZlebelia dedamiwis kontinentebis mixedviT qveynebis dajgufebis

gamoyenebac, magaliTad, aziis qveynebi, afrikis qveynebi, amerikis qveynebi

da a. S.

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis geografiis statistikis erT-erT

mniSvnelovan amocanas miekuTvneba importisa da eqsportis moculobisa da

struqturis raodenobrivi Seswavla qveynebis gaerTianebebis mixedviT.

7. saxelmwifo sagareo valis statistika

sagareo ekonomikuri urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovan mimarTulebas warmoadgens saxelmwifo sagareo valis

raodenobrivi Seswavla. mas didi mniSvneloba aqvs qveynis

gadaxdisunarianobis gansazRvraSi da momavali kreditebis miRebis

158

moculobis dadgenaSi. Tanamedrove etapze qveynebis umetesobas gaaCnia

sxvadasxva sididis vali sxva qveynebisa Tu saerTaSoriso organizaciebis

winaSe. bevr qveyanaSi xSiria SemTxvevebi, rodesac biujetis deficitis

dasafinanseblad adgili aqvs finansuri valdebulebebis aRebas, romlebic

or kategoriad iyofa - sagareo da saSinao valdebulebebad. sagareo va-

lis moculoba da misi SefardebiTi maCveneblebis zomier standartebSi

moqceva yvela qveynis mTavrobebisTvis ekonomikuri politikis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani nawilia.

sagareo valis oficialuri statistikis warmoeba ZiriTadad emyareba

msoflio bankisa da saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis rekomendaciebs

(ixileT: ,,sagareo valis statistika”, vaSingtoni, 2003 weli).

mTliani sagareo valis statistika harmonizebulia sagadasaxdelo

balansTan. igi moicavs saxelmwifo (samTavrobo seqtori da erovnuli

banki) da kerZo seqtoris (sabanko da sxva seqtorebi) sagareo vals.

msoflioSi miRebuli praqtikis Sesabamisad, saxelmwifo valis zeda

zRvrad mTliani Sida produqtis mimarT valis moculobis 60-procentiani

done miiCneva. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom saqarTvelos sagareo vali mSp-is

37, xolo qveynis mTliani vali ki miaxloebiT 43 procentia. maSasadame,

mSp-s mimar saqarTvelos sagareo vali msoflios bevr sxva qveyanasTan

SedarebiT, ar aris maRali. saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis Semcireba

daiwyo 2003 wlidan. magram 2008 wlidan sapirispiro procesi dafiqsirda,

rac gamovlinda saxelmwifo valis maCveneblebis droebiT zrdaSi 2008-2010

wlebSi globaluri finansuri da ekonomikuri krizisis fonze, romelmac

uaryofiTad imoqmeda ekonomikuri zrdis tempebze ara marto

saqarTveloSi, aramed mTel msoflioSi. saqarTvelos sagareo valis

SefardebiTi maCveneblebis klebis tendencia gagrZelda 2011 wlidan. sxva

qveynebis analogiur maCveneblebTan Sedareba gviCvenebs, rom saqarTvelos

sagareo valis SefardebiTi done gacilebiT ufro dabalia, vidre bevr

ganviTarebul qveyanaSi.

oficialuri statistikis mixedviT, saqarTvelos mTlianma sagareo

valma 2012 wlis 31 martis mdgomareobiT 11,4 miliardi aSS dolari (18,9

miliardi lari) Seadgina. aqedan 3,8 miliardi aSS dolari (6,3 mlrd

lari) iyo samTavrobo seqtoris vali (mTliani valis 33,4%); 783,1 mln aSS

dolari (1,3 mlrd lari, 6,9%) - erovnuli bankis; 2,1 miliardi aSS dolari

(3,5 mlrd lari, 18,3%) - sabanko seqtoris, xolo danarCeni - sxva

seqtorebis.

unda aRiniSnos, rom Tanamedrove etapze saxelmwifo valis

moculobis zrda damaxasiaTebelia ara mxolod ganviTarebadi

159

qveynebisaTvis, aramed bevri ganviTarebuli qveynisTvisac (maT Soris

evrokavSiris wevri qveynebisTvis). davalianebis zrdas ganapirobebs

mravali endogenuri da egzogenuri (anu Siga da gare) faqtorebi. maTgan

SeiZleba gamoiyos Semdegi:

- saxelmwifo biujetis qronikuli deficiti;

- mSp-is zrdis tempebis Semcireba;

- sagadasaxdelo balansis deficitis mniSvnelovani gadideba;

- savaluto kursebis Zlieri ryevebi;

- sesxis momsaxurebis gadasaxdelebis mateba da sxv.

aRniSnuli faqtorebis uaryofiTi zegavlenis raodenobrivi gansazRvra

statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovan amocanas warmoadgens.

8. sagadasaxdelo balansis statistika

sagadasaxdelo balansis warmoeba sagareo ekonomikuri

urTierTobebis statistikis erT-erTi mniSvnelovani funqciaa.

sagadasaxdelo balansi erovnul angariSTa sistemis erT-erTi mTavari

Semadgeneli nawilia, romelic axasiaTebs qveynis savaWro da finansur

urTierTobebs sazRvargareTTan da Sesabamisi operaciebis mixedviT

asaxavs savaluto Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris Tanafardobas.

istoriaSi pirveli sagadasaxdelo balansi SemuSavda aSS-Si meoce

saukunis 70-iani wlebis bolos, Tumca mas win uZRoda Teoriuli da

meTodologiuri safuZvlebis damuSaveba (saTanado cnebebi, kategoriebi,

maCveneblebi, gaangariSebis wesi, forma da meTodebi da a. S.).

sagadasaxdelo balansis ZiriTadi maCveneblebia fuladi

Semosavlebi da gadasaxdelebi, rac dakavSirebulia saimporto da

saeqsporto operaciebTan, qveynis centraluri bankebis savaluto

rezervebisa da oqros maragebis moculobis cvlilebebTan, Semosavlebi

da gasavlebi sxvadasxva saxis momsaxurebisaTvis (saerTaSoriso

satransporto da turistuli momsaxurebisaTvis da sxv.), saerTaSoriso

sakredito Semosavlebi da gadasaxdelebi, ucxour investiciebTan

dakavSirebuli Semosavlebi da gadasaxdelebi da sxv.

nebismieri qveynis sagadasaxdelo balansis zogadi SefasebisaTvis

gamoiyeneba sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos raodenobrivi maCvenebeli.

sagadasaxdelo balansis saldo aris sagadasaxdelo balansis

Semosavlebsa da gasavlebs Soris sxvaoba, romelic SeiZleba iyos

dadebiTi (anu aqtiuri) an uaryofiTi (anu pasiuri). pirvel SemTxvevaSi

Semosavlebi aWarbebs gasavlebs, xolo meore SemTxvevaSi piriqiT,

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gasavlebis moculoba metia Semosavlebze. ra Tqma unda, qveynisaTvis metad

sasurvelia aqtiuri sagadasaxdelo balansis saldos dafiqsireba, rac

drois garkveul periodSi ufro meti savaluto Semosavlebis miRebas

gulisxmobs.

sagadasaxdelo balansis struqtura moicavs 2 ZiriTad nawils. esenia:

1) mimdinare operaciebis angariSi, anu mimdinare angariSi da 2) kapitalisa

da finansuri resursebis angariSi. mimdinare angariSSi aisaxeba saqonliTa

da momsaxurebiT sagareo vaWroba, Semosavlebi da mimdinare transfertebi.

kapitalisa da finansuri operaciebis angariSi moicavs kapitalur

transfertebTan da arawarmoebul arafinansur aqtivebTan dakavSirebul

operaciebs, agreTve finansuri operaciebis angariSs, romelic, Tavis

mxriv, 4 konkretul kategorias aerTianebs (pirdapiri investiciebi,

portfelis investiciebi, sxva investiciebi da sarezervo aqtivebi).

sagadasaxdelo balansi gulisxmobs monacemTa ormag Caweras, rac

imas niSnavs, rom yoveli calkeuli operacia tardeba ormagi Caweris

wesiT, anu: operacia aisaxeba erTi angariSis kreditSi da imavdroulad

meore angariSis debetSi. eqsportis SemTxvevaSi operaciis ekonomikuri

interpretacia aseTia: imdenad, ramdenadac gayiduli saqonlis nacvlad

qveyana Rebulobs ucxour valutas, aucilebelia orive nakadis asaxva

sagadasaxdelo balansSi. mocemuli forma iZleva sagadasaxdelo balansis

aqtiurobis an pasiurobis gamovlenis SesaZleblobas. aqtiuria is, Tu

qveynis Semosavlebi aWarbebs gadasaxdelebs, xolo pasiuria _ Tu

gadasaxdelebi sxva qveynebis mimarT aWarbebs sxva qveynebidan miRebul

Semosavlebs. pasiuri balansis SemTxvevaSi izrdeba sagareo vali, ecema

erovnuli valutis kursi, mcirdeba saerTaSoriso savaluto rezervebis

moculoba da a. S. amitom sagadasaxdelo balansis wonasworobis miRweva

qveynis ekonomikisa da safinanso mdgomareobis gajansaRebis erT-erTi

mniSvnelovani winapirobaa.

statistika ekonomikisa da biznesisaTvis-2 - tsu.ge · 1 ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis...

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