State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to...

ENERGY CENTERState Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)


Indiana Energy StatusIndiana Energy Statuspresented topresented to

Indiana Chamber of CommerceConference on Energy ManagementConference on Energy Management

September 2, 2009

presented by

Doug GothamState Utility Forecasting Group



“It’s the economy, stupid”• Attributed to James Carville during the

1992 presidential election campaign1992 presidential election campaign

A li bl t I di ’ t• Applicable to Indiana’s current energy situation



Indiana - an Industrial State• In 2007, Indiana accounted for 2.9% of

the nation’s retail electricity salesthe nation s retail electricity sales– 11th most in the U.S.

• But Indiana accounted for 4 9% of the• But Indiana accounted for 4.9% of the nation’s industrial sector retail electricity salessales– 4th most in the U.S.



2007 R id ti l El t i it2007 Residential Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )

120

140

80

100

60

20

40

0

DC AK VT WY RI

HI

ND SD ME

DE

NH

MT

NM ID UT

NE

WV

NV CT

KS IA AR CO

MS

OR

MA

OK WI

MN KY MD LA SC NJ

AL AZ IN MI

WA

MO TN VA IL NY

OH PA NC

GA

CA FL TX



2007 C i l El t i it2007 Commercial Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )

120

140

80

100

60

80

20

40

0

VT AK HI

RI

SD ME

WY

ND DE

NH

MT ID WV

NM NV

NE

DC UT

AR IA MS CT

KS OR

OK

KY CO SC MN AL LA WI

IN MA

WA TN AZ MD

MO MI

NJ

NC VA GA

PA OH IL NY FL TX CA



2007 I d t i l El t i it2007 Industrial Electricity Sales (million MWh)Sa es ( o )

120

140

80

100

60

80

20

40

0

DC RI

AK VT SD NH DE

ME

ND HI

CT

MD

MT

NM

WY UT

NE ID MA

KS NJ

AZ CO

OR

NV

WV

OK

MS

AR MO VA IA FL NY

WA

MN WI

LA NC SC TN MI

GA AL KY IL PA IN CA

OH TX



2007 T t l El t i it S l2007 Total Electricity Sales (million MWh)( o )

350

400

250

300

150

200

50

100

0

VT AK RI

HI

SD NH

ME

DE

ND

DC

MT

WY

NM ID UT

NE CT

WV

NV

KS IA AR MS

OR

CO

OK

MA

MD

MN WI

AZ LA NJ

SC MO

WA AL KY TN MI

IN VA NC

GA IL NY

PA OH FL CA TX



Ch i El t i it S lChanges in Electricity Sales from 2007 to 2008o 00 o 008

• Investor owned utilities 3 0%• Investor-owned utilities -3.0%

• Not-for-profit utilities +1.8%

• All utilities -2.0%



Was it the Economy?• Indiana Gross Domestic Product

dropped by 0 6% from 2007 to 2008dropped by 0.6% from 2007 to 2008• But 2008 was an exceptionally cool

summer which reduces electricitysummer, which reduces electricity demand

Cooling degree days in Indianapolis– Cooling degree days in Indianapolis dropped by 30% from 2007



F th I t O dFor the Investor-Owned Utilities:U es

• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to 20082.4% from 2007 to 2008– More sensitive to weather than other

sectorssectors• Commercial and industrial sales

dropped by 3 3% from 2007 to 2008dropped by 3.3% from 2007 to 2008– More sensitive to economic factors than

the residential sectorthe residential sector



U S G D ti P d tU.S. Gross Domestic Product (trillions of 2005 dollars)( o s o 005 do a s)

13.4

13.5

13 1

13.2

13.3

12.9

13

13.1

12.7

12.8

12.62007 I 2007 II 2007 III 2007 IV 2008 I 2008 II 2008 III 2008 IV 2009 I 2009 II



This Year – Effects are More PronouncedPronounced

• Economic impact largely confined to last• Economic impact largely confined to last quarter of 2008E i i t ill b f lt ll 4• Economic impact will be felt across all 4 quarters of 2009

• The mild summer of 2008 has been repeated



Indiana’s Reliance on Coal• Relatively low electric rates• Relatively high emissions of CO NO• Relatively high emissions of CO2, NOx,

and SO2

I di ’ ti fl t i i• Indiana’s generation fleet is aging



F l S f El t iFuel Sources for Electric Power in 2007o e 00

United Indiana• Indiana numbers do

t i l d t fUnited States

Indiana

Coal 49 % 94 %Nuclear 19 % 0 %

not include out-of-state generators that serve IndianaNuclear 19 % 0 %

Natural Gas 22 % 3 %Petroleum 1.6 % 0.1 %

serve Indiana customers– Cook (nuclear) in

Renewables 8.5 % 0.5 %( )

Michigan– Madison (natural gas) in

Ohio– Trimble County (coal) in

Kentucky



In 2007….• Indiana produced 3.1 % of the electricity

generated in the U Sgenerated in the U.S.• Indiana produced 6.1 % of the electricity

generated from coal in the U Sgenerated from coal in the U.S.• Indiana produced 0.4 % of the electricity

t d f t l i th U Sgenerated from natural gas in the U.S.



2007 All S t El t i it2007 All Sector Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )

20

25

IN 6.50, rank #9

15

20

10

5

0

ID WY

WV

KY NE

WA UT

ND IN MO IA KS SD AR OR TN VA MT

SC OK

MN

NM AL CO

NC

GA

OH

MS LA IL WI

MI

AZ PA US

NV TX FL DE

MD

DC VT CA NJ RI

AK NH

ME

MA

NY CT HI



2007 R id ti l El t i it2007 Residential Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )

20

25

IN 8.26, rank #14

15

20

10

5

0

ID WV

WA

ND KY NE

MO

WY TN SD UT

KS OR IN OK

AR VA MT

GA

NM

MN SC CO AL MS LA NC IA OH AZ IL MI

US WI

PA DC FL NV

MD TX DE RI

NJ

VT CA

NH AK MA

ME

NY CT HI



2007 C i l El t i it2007 Commercial Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )

20

25

IN 7.29, rank #16

15

20

10

5

0

ID WV

WY

MO VA NE UT

WA

ND SD KY KS AR IA OR IN OK

NC

MN

CO

NM SC GA TN MT AZ IL OH AL WI

MI

MS LA PA US FL TX NV

DE

MD

DC AK VT RI

CA

ME NJ

NH

MA CT

NY HI



2007 I d t i l El t i it2007 Industrial Electricity Retail Price (cents/kWh)e a ce (ce s/ )

25

IN 4.89, rank #11

15

20

10

5

0

ID WV

WY

KY UT

WA IA

MO NE

SC IN OR VA SD KS MT

TN ND AR AL OK

NC

GA

NM

MN

MS

OH

CO AZ WI

US MI IL LA PA FL TX N

VN

Y VT DE

DC

MD CA NJ RI

NH AK CT

MA

ME HI



2007 CO E i i2007 CO2 Emissions(million metric tons)( o e c o s)

250

300

200

250

100

150

50

0

VT DC ID RI

SD AK ME

NH DE HI

CT

OR

WA

NV

MT NJ

NE

MA

MS

AR MD

NM ND

MN UT

KS SC CO IA

WY

VA WI

OK

NY LA AZ TN CA

MO

NC MI

WV AL KY GA IL IN FL PA OH TX



2007 NO i i2007 NOx emissions (thousand metric tons)( ousa d e c o s)

250

300

200

100

150

50

0

DC VT RI

ID NH CT

SD ME

DE

AK OR

WA

MA NJ HI

NV

NE

MT

AR SC MS

MD IA NY

NC VA KS NM ND

CO UT WI

WY

OK AZ MN LA CA TN MO MI IL AL G

AW

VKY PA IN FL O

H TX



2007 SO i i2007 SO2 emissions (thousand metric tons)( ousa d e c o s)

1,000

1,200

800

400

600

200

0

VT DC RI

AK CT ID NV

SD WA

OR

ME HI

CA

NM MT

UT

DE

NH NJ

MA AZ CO NE

MS

AR WY

MN

OK

KS LA NY

ND IA SC WI

VA TN MO

MD IL FL KY WV MI

NC AL TX IN GA

PA OH



Emissions Trends for Indiana Electricity IndustryElectricity Industry

(normalized to 1990 values)1.4

1

1.2

0.6

0.8 Generation

CO2

SO2

NOX

0.2

0.4

NOX

01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007



Since 1990:• Electricity generated in Indiana has

increased by 29%increased by 29%• Carbon dioxide emissions have

increased by 24%increased by 24%• Sulfur dioxide emissions have

d d b 48%decreased by 48%• Nitrogen oxides emissions have

decreased by 60%



C l fi d G tiCoal-fired Generating Capacity by Decade InstalledCapac y by ecade s a ed

6000

7000# of units MW

3000

4000

5000

MW

1940s 1 451950s 20 18471960s 12 2275

1000

2000

3000M

1970s 17 69381980s 9 57361990s 2 289

0

940s

950s

960s

970s

980s

990s

1990s 2 289

1 1 1 1 1 1



Coal Developments• Duke Energy integrated coal

gasification unit at Edwardsportgasification unit at Edwardsport• IMPA share of Prairie State (IL), Trimble

County (KY) and Thoroughbred (KY)County (KY), and Thoroughbred (KY)• Proposed syngas facility



Natural Gas Developments• Hoosier Energy – Wabash Valley Power

purchase of Holland combined cyclepurchase of Holland combined cycle facility (IL)

• NIPSCO purchase of Sugar Creek• NIPSCO purchase of Sugar Creek combined cycle facility (IN)



Wind Developments• 530 MW of operational wind

– Benton County Wind Farm– Benton County Wind Farm– Fowler Ridge Wind Farm (phase 1)

• 506 MW of wind capacity under• 506 MW of wind capacity under construction

F l Rid Wi d F ( h 2)– Fowler Ridge Wind Farm (phase 2)– Meadow Lake Wind Farm (phase 1)– Hoosier Wind Project



Wi d P h b I diWind Purchases by Indiana UtilitiesU es

• 263 MW in operation• 263 MW in operation

• 206 MW approved

• 251 MW pending



Coal Spot Price (from EIA)



Natural Gas Futures ($/mmBtu)18

14

16

18

8

10

12

4

6

8

0

2

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

1

Aug

11,

2

Aug

11,

2

Aug

11,

2

Aug

11,

2

Aug

11,

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Aug

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Aug

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State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG)• Residential electricity sales dropped by 2 4% from 2007 to...

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