STATE OF THE INDUSTRY presentations/13-06_1st... · Consumer Confidence Survey –Q1 –2013 Field...
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6/13/2013 1 SNACKEX 2013 13 TH JUNE - GOTHENBURG Jean-Jaques Vandenheede Knut Gartland STATE OF THE INDUSTRY Copyright ©2013 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprieta 2 AGENDA • Consumer Confidence • FMCG development • Category status • Private label • Retail Formats • Consumer bevaior
Transcript of STATE OF THE INDUSTRY presentations/13-06_1st... · Consumer Confidence Survey –Q1 –2013 Field...
6/13/2013
1
SNACKEX 2013
13TH JUNE - GOTHENBURG
Jean-Jaques Vandenheede
Knut Gartland
STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
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AGENDA
• Consumer Confidence
• FMCG development
• Category status
• Private label
• Retail Formats
• Consumer bevaior
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
56 % of global consumers think their country is in a economic recession at the moment.
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE PILOTS DEMAND
9598 100102
9894
8884
7782
86 8792 93
90 90 9289 88 89
9491 92 91 93
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
Global USA W. Europe China India
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8
30
50
70
90
110
130
2005Q1
2005Q3
2006Q1
2006Q3
2007Q1
2007Q3
2008Q1
2008Q3
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
France Italy Spain Ger UK
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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9Consumer Confidence Survey – Q1 – 2013 Field Dates: February 17 to March 8, 2013
122120118115
112108108108107105
102100 98 98 96 96 96 95 93 9391 90 90 89 89 87
83 83 81 80 80 78 78 76 76 75 74 74 73 73 72 7269 67 66 65 62 62
57 5754 51
46 44 43 42 40
33
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Changes Q1’13 vs. Q4’12Q1 2013 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Global average 93
Base : All respondents n=32187
5 -1 -1 1 0 23 0 -5 4 3 2 4 0 3 -16 8 6 1 -2 4 0 3 -4 3 3 -6 3 -7 -3 -15 4 12 1 7 2 -4 3 -20 14 0 -3 -13 -3 5 -3 0 5 -6 -4 -4 1 13 0 5 2 5 5 -6
▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
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10Consumer Confidence Survey – Q1 – 2013 Field Dates: February 17 to March 8, 2013
PERCEPTIONS OF STATE OF PERSONAL FINANCES OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
6 5 9 917
9
29 2931 30
44
33
53 5249
45
32
47
9 10 77
3 7
AP LA NA MEAP EU Global Average
%
Bad Not so good Good Excellent
Base : All respondents n=32434
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11Source: Q1, 2013 Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns & Spending TOTAL EUROPE
WHAT IS YOUR BIGGEST + 2ND BIGGEST CONCERN?
FMCG MARKET DEVELOPMENT
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Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
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EUROPE OVERVIEWFast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics (Weighted average)
(*):Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.
4,0% 6,3% 6,1% 6,4% 4,1% 2,7% 2,2% 1,3% 1,3% 0,5% 0,8% 1,1% 1,5% 2,1% 3,1% 3,9% 4,5% 4,5% 4,2% 3,5% 3,0% 3,1%
2,9%
2,6%
0,4% 0,2%
0,6%
0,4%
1,7%
1,3% 1,6%2,0%
0,1%
1,2%1,1%
0,2%
2,1%0,6%
0,7%0,2%
-0,8% -0,4% -0,2%
0,2%
6,9%
8,9%
6,5%6,6%
4,7%
3,1%3,9%
2,6% 2,9%2,5%
0,9%
2,3% 2,6% 2,3%
5,2%4,5%
5,2%4,7%
3,4% 3,1% 2,8%3,3%
Q4'07Q1'08Q2'08Q3'08Q4'08Q1'09Q2'09Q3'09Q4'09Q1'10Q2'10Q3'10Q4'10Q1'11Q2'11Q3'11Q4'11Q1'12Q2'12Q3'12Q4'12Q1'13-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Unit value change Volume change Nominal Value Growth
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15
100106
114 117 120125
129
100 103 104 106 107 108 108
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Value Volume
DEVELOPMENT INDEX TOTAL EUROPEBase 100 = 2006
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VALUE INDEX 2012 (base 100 = 2006)
98
109
111
112
113
115
115
116
118
120
121
122
124
124
125
126
128
130
137
156
194
0 50 100 150 200
GreeceSwitzerland
IrelandGermany
ItalyDenmarkPortugal
AustriaFrance
BelgiumFinland
Czech Rep.Spain
SwedenNetherlands
HungaryUK
SlovakiaNorwayPolandTurkey
DEVELOPMENT INDEX BY COUNTRYVOLUME INDEX 2012 (base 100 = 2006)
91
93
94
98
100
101
101
103
103
104
104
104
105
109
111
113
114
116
119
123
134
0 50 100 150 200
GreeceHungary
DenmarkGermany
FinlandIrelandAustria
BelgiumFrance
NetherlandsUK
SwedenItaly
SwitzerlandCzech Rep.
PortugalSpain
SlovakiaNorwayTurkeyPoland
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Q1 2013 GROWTH RATES PER COUNTRY (VERSUS Q1 2012)Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
-2,3% -2,3%
0,2% 0,6% 1,1%1,4%
1,4% 1,5% 2,0% 2,1% 2,3% 2,8% 2,8% 2,9% 2,9%3,9% 3,9% 3,9%
5,0% 5,2%
11,6%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Unit value Volume growth Nominal Value Growth
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VALUE MAIN DRIVER FOR GROWTH
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POSITIVE SIGNS OF CONSUMER CAPABILITY
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100106
114 117 120125
129134
141
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Value Forecast
DEVELOPMENT INDEX FORECAST: TOTAL EUROPE
Base 100 = 2006
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THE BATTLE IS WITHIN THE CATEGORY
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CHILLED FOOD
AMBIENT FOOD
NON ALC. BEVERAGES.
CONF. & SNACKS
ALC. BEVERAGES
HEALTH AND BEAUTY
HOMECARE
FROZEN FOOD
PET FOOD
BABY CARE
FR GB BE NL
Confectionary and Snacks have led the growth within FMCG over the last year.
Source : Nielsen Strategic Planner: Total Coverage - Data to 24/03/13
% ChgValue Diff vs prev MAT – GB/FR/BE/NL
+2.7%
+2.9%
+2.3%
+4.2%
+2.7%
+1.4%
+1.4%
+2.5%
+3.9%
+0.2%
Driven by crisps & chocolate
confectionary.
Total FMCG: + 2.6%
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RETAIL BRANDS
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VALUE SHARE RETAIL BRANDS BY COUNTRY
45%
41% 41%
33%32%
28% 28% 28%27%
25% 25%23% 23% 23%
22% 21% 21%
18% 18%17% 17% 17% 17%
15%14% 14%
11%
8%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%3% 3% 2%
2% 1% 0% 0%
Reference period: 2012
Weighted Global Average:
16.5% (+0.5%)
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PRIVATE LABEL SHARE
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24,6%25,4% 25,6%
26,7%27,7%
28,5% 28,6%29,5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK
RETAIL BRANDS VALUE SHARE TREND EUROPE: 8 YEARS AND 17 COUNTRIES
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0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain
Portugal
Poland
Hungary
Netherlands
Norway
VALUE SHARE RETAIL BRANDS: STRONG GROWING
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10,0%
12,0%
14,0%
16,0%
18,0%
20,0%
22,0%
24,0%
26,0%
28,0%
30,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Czech Rep
Slovakia
Finland
France
Italy
Denmark
Austria
VALUE SHARE RETAIL BRANDS: LIGHT GROWING
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10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
50,0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany
Belgium
Switzerland
Sweden
UK
VALUE SHARE RETAIL BRANDS: FLAT/NEGATIVE TREND
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WHERE DOES RETAIL BRANDS PROGRESS ORIGINATE?
Leading brands
• Demand
• Equity
• Marketing
• Innovation
Retail brands
• Offering
• Scale
• Value for
money
Secondary
brands
• Listing
• survival
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RETAIL BRANDS ESSENTIALLY GAIN AT THE EXPENSE OF SECONDARY AND SMALL BRANDS
(*): Based upon a sample of frequently purchased categories
UK Spain Germany France Italy USA
40% 34% 31% 38% 37%31%
41%41%
32% 28%17%
17%
19% 25% 37% 34%46% 52%
N°1 brand Retail Brands Other brands
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SHOP FORMAT DEVELOPMENT
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
Format structure by country
28%
56%
4%11%
33%
17%10%
26%
59%
9%
26%
42%
25%
12%
28% 24%29%
39% 38%
16%9%
16%
21%
51%
49%
34%
28%
15%
32%
20%
23%
36% 0% 31%
32%
24% 34%
36%
0%
14%
0% 11%
52%
18%
40% 34%25%
45%
66%
31%
10%
51%
19%
37%
22%
34%26%
19%13%
30%
16%
41%
16%
3% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 10% 10% 11%17% 19% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
31% 31%
42%
64%
Ger Fra Ned Bel Swe Den Aus Por UK Nor Spa Cze Swi Gre Ita Eir Fin Slva Hun Pol Tur
HM (+2500m²) LSM (1000-2500m²) SSM (400-1000m²) Rem (under 400m²)
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Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
Format structure Europe
14% 19%26%
32% 34% 35% 35% 35% 36% 36% 37% 37% 36% 36% 36% 36%12%16%
20%21%
23% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 24% 25% 25%
26%
26%
25%
26%26% 27% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28%48%
39%29%
21% 16% 16% 15% 14% 13% 13% 12% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
HM LSM SSM REM
Confidential & Proprietary • Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company
Number of stores per million inhabitants
4252511178285928222211328142971624171015
1131
11733
5144
4862
888090
11442
797560
5871
3591
3651
83
79132
124114126
124118
106127131
83176
139167
226257
282400
390
51108108
128129
140152
171178
201202
216217
224225
232247249
302340
371445
496
TurUKSlk
USAHunPolCzeGrePorFraSwiEir
SpaNedFinIta
SweBelSloGerDenAusNor
>2500m2
1000-2500m2
400-1000m2
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85
%
85
%
84
%
84
%
84
%
82
%
82
%
81
%
80
%
80
%
79
%
78
%
78
%
78
%
77
%
77
%
76
%
76
%
75
%
75
%
74
%
74
%
74
%
71
%
70
%
70
%
70
%
70
%
69
%
69
%
67
%
62
%
57
%
57
%
56
%
56
%
AUTO PILOT SHOPPING“I shopped at the same
store I always do”
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10,1%11,4%
12,4%13,8%
14,9% 15,4% 15,9% 16,1% 16,2% 16,0% 15,8%17,4%
18,2% 18,9% 19,1%18,0% 18,5%
19,4% 19,2% 18,7% 19,4%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
MARKET SHARE DISCOUNT IN EUROPE
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# of HD per million inhabitants
Ma
rke
t sh
are
DENSITY HD VERSUS MARKET SHARE
R²=95%
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
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Are shoppers changing?
Fast, Faster, Fastest, …
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NUMBER OF SHOPPING TRIPS PER QUARTER
15,0
20,0
25,0
30,0
35,0
40,0
45,0
50,0
55,0
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Germany Italy France UK Spain
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14 1514
1514 15 14
1514
15 1516
15 16 1516
22 22 22
2423 23 23 23 23
23 23
25
23 23 2325
40 4041
42
4141
41
44
4142
42
44
42
44
41
46
1819 19
20
1819 19
21
2021 20
22
2021 21
22
17 17 1817 17
18 1817 18 17 18
Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12
Germany € Italy € France € UK £ Spain €
AVERAGE SPEND PER SHOPPING TRIP
€
€
£
€
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MODIFIED DECISION FUNNEL
AWARENESS CONSITERATION PURCHASE
Expression
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CONSUMERS LOVE THEIR BRANDS!
OF ONLINE DISCUSSION
MENTIONS BRANDS26%
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INTERNET BRAND EQUITY BUILDING ….
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APPLE IAD
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STATE OF THE INDUSTRYSummary
• 56% of global consumers think their country is in a economic recession. In
Europe 3 out of 4 consumers think their country is in recession.
• Value is the main driver of the 2,5 % growth in the big markets in Europe
• The Snacks category is doing well compared to other categories
• Retailer Brands continue to grow: 0,5 percent share per year
• The battle of shop size is over. Discount stores gaining shares.
• Consumers do not change FMCG shopping behavior rapidly.
• Smartphones creates new opportunities for communication
![Insperity Business Confidence Survey: Q4 2013 [Infographic]](https://static.fdocuments.net/doc/165x107/547cb1ffb379595e2b8b5067/insperity-business-confidence-survey-q4-2013-infographic.jpg)
