State of Banking Web
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8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
The State of BankingMarch 31, 2009
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
David LawerSenior Vice President
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
~ More than doubled
~ Call reports of 8,300 U.S. banks
~ Troubled assets totaled $261 billion
~ Up from $123 billion prior year
Nonperforming loans and foreclosed properties on banks’ books:
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
~ As a group, lost money in 4th Q 2008
~ First time since 1990
~ Product of writing off bad loans
Bank profits fell dramatically.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
163 banks had more troubled assets than capital and loan loss reserves, end of 2008.
~ Troubled assets = Nonperforming loans + foreclosed property
~ 97% (holding 98% of industry assets) were well capitalized
~ Highest regulatory designation
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Smaller, community banks continueto perform well.
~ Those that avoided dealing in riskiest types of mortgage lending
~ Losses concentrated among large banks
~ In states with highest rate of mortgage-related
problems/foreclosures
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Likely increase in delinquentconsumer loans.
~ Recession
~ Rise in unemployment rate
~ Currently around 8%
~ 10%? Higher?
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Number of institutions on FDIC’sProblem List tripled.
~ 252 insured institutions
~ Combined assets of $159 billion
~ Up from 76 institutions, $22 billion in assets
~ No change in criteria
~ Just bad loans
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
~ High proportion of troubled assets to capital
~ How? Raise new capital
Merge with stronger banks
Hang on long enough until economy improves
Most banks eventually recover.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
20 banks failed last year.17 banks already failed this year.
~ 15 = troubled asset ratio greater than 100%
~ Small number compared to 1986 - 1992
~ More than 180 failed each year
~ 534 in 1989 alone
~ Total = 2,500
~ ABA predicts 120 failures in 2009
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
~ Primarily loans for 1– 4 family residences
~ 45 percent of nonperforming loans
~ First mortgages, second mortgages, home equity lines and other loans secured by homes
~ (Indicates value of mortgage backed securities banks are trying to unload on fed. gov’t. …. taxpayers)
Real estate lending causing difficulty.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
We haven’t even begun to see the beginning of the end.
~ $27 billion = real estate (most acquired through foreclosure)
~ $11.5 billion in 1- 4 family homes
~ $8.7 billion construction/dev. property
~ $7.8 billion commercial R.E.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Troubled commercial real estate loans just starting to surface.
~ New rules of examination
~ Special rules and treatment for banks with commercial R.E. concentrations 500% or more of capital; many of them
~ Lower default rate can still equal catastrophic results
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”~Yogi Berra~
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Jason L. RothSenior Vice President
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Dear Sirs,
In view of what seems to behappening internationally with banksat the moment, I was wonderingif you could advise me:
If one of my checks is returnedmarked “Insufficient Funds,” howdo I know whether that refers to me,or to you?
Sincerely,Concerned Customer
A letter to my bank.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Banking in the Last Frontier
AK USAAK USAvsvs
How do Alaska banks compareto those in the “States?”
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
12/08 09/08
Performing Mortgages 89.9% 93.3%
Prime Mortgages (2/3 Loans) 2.4% 1.1%
Alt – A 9.10% 5.18%
Sub-Prime Loans 16.4% 10.7%
Re-Default Rate 43% 37%
Source: FDIC
U. S. Mortgage Metrics
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
12/08 12/07
Performing Loans 98.9% 99.3%
Default Rate 0.31% 0.31%
1 – 4 Family Serviced Loans
Source: FDIC
Alaska Mortgage Metrics
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
2008 2007 Unemployment 6.8% 6.1% Single Family Permits -60.0% -33.4% Home Price Index 0.1% 5.1%
– Fourth Quarter 2008 -0.8%
– Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development
Alaska Indicators
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
2008 2007
Loans to Assets 62.8% 58.4%
Non-current / Total Loans 4.12% 3.77%
ALLL / Non-current Loans 0.55% 1.11%
Source: FDIC Uniform Bank Performance Reports 12/31/08
Alaska Banking Indicators
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
2.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
Source FDIC
`
Return on AssetsMeasures overall effectiveness of managing and investing bank assets
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
SWS Associates LLC
Return on EquityMeasures the net after-tax return provided to shareholders
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
Regulatory Minimum
SWS Associates LLC
Risk-Based Capital RatioMeasures the level of capital relative to credit risk
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
Source FDIC
Leverage RatioMeasures capital relative to bank’s total assets
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
0.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
SWS Associates LLC
Loan Loss Provision to Average LoansCharge taken to establish reserves for possible future loan losses
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Alaska Banks
First National Bank Alaska
National Average
Efficiency RatioMeasures a bank’s operating expenses as a percentage of income
SWS Associates
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Mark-to-Market
Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar
Won’t all this lead to inflation?
Just what’s up and why do we care:
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
How is First National Bank Alaska doing?
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Total Loans Outstanding
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
$900,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,100,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,300,000,000
Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Net Charge-Offs & Reserve for Loan Losses
($5,000,000)
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09
Net Charge-Offs
Reserve Balance
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Quarterly Net Charge-Offs vs. Net Income
($2,000,000)
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09
Net Charge-Offs
Quarterly Income
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Total Average Assets
$1,400,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,700,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$1,900,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,100,000,000
$2,200,000,000
$2,300,000,000
$2,400,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$2,600,000,000
Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
TOTAL ASSETS
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
$1,400,000,000
$1,600,000,000
$1,800,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,200,000,000
Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08
Total Deposits
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
$40,000,000
$45,000,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Net Income
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Produce and sell (Investment bank)
Produce and hold (Community bank)
Two different banking models:
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Sometimes ….what you don’t have
is as important as what you do have.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Leveraged balance sheet
Loans outside of Alaska
Toxic investments (Legacy Assets)
What First National doesn’t have:
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
Commodity prices & worldwide demand
- Gas line
- Mineral development
Federal dollars?
Tax & royalty payments to State
Stateside economy – tourism?
What’s the future look like for Alaska?
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
If the company does well---
it’s because of good management.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
If the company does poorly---
it’s because of the economy.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
First National Bank Alaska has the capacity and strength to support
business in Alaska.
Our success will reflectthe success of our customers.
Bottom line:
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
We view this as an opportunity.
8 92 0 0 2 0 0 Banking in the Last Frontier
First National Bank Alaska
The State of BankingMarch 31, 2009