State of Banking Web

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8 9 2 0 0 2 0 0 nking in the Last Frontier st National Bank Alaska The State of Banking March 31, 2009

description

Expert overview of recent condition of banks in the nation and in Alaska, and of First National Bank Alaska

Transcript of State of Banking Web

Page 1: State of Banking Web

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First National Bank Alaska

The State of BankingMarch 31, 2009

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First National Bank Alaska

David LawerSenior Vice President

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~ More than doubled

~ Call reports of 8,300 U.S. banks

~ Troubled assets totaled $261 billion

~ Up from $123 billion prior year

Nonperforming loans and foreclosed properties on banks’ books:

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First National Bank Alaska

~ As a group, lost money in 4th Q 2008

~ First time since 1990

~ Product of writing off bad loans

Bank profits fell dramatically.

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163 banks had more troubled assets than capital and loan loss reserves, end of 2008.

~ Troubled assets = Nonperforming loans + foreclosed property

~ 97% (holding 98% of industry assets) were well capitalized

~ Highest regulatory designation

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Smaller, community banks continueto perform well.

~ Those that avoided dealing in riskiest types of mortgage lending

~ Losses concentrated among large banks

~ In states with highest rate of mortgage-related

problems/foreclosures

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Likely increase in delinquentconsumer loans.

~ Recession

~ Rise in unemployment rate

~ Currently around 8%

~ 10%? Higher?

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Number of institutions on FDIC’sProblem List tripled.

~ 252 insured institutions

~ Combined assets of $159 billion

~ Up from 76 institutions, $22 billion in assets

~ No change in criteria

~ Just bad loans

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~ High proportion of troubled assets to capital

~ How? Raise new capital

Merge with stronger banks

Hang on long enough until economy improves

Most banks eventually recover.

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20 banks failed last year.17 banks already failed this year.

~ 15 = troubled asset ratio greater than 100%

~ Small number compared to 1986 - 1992

~ More than 180 failed each year

~ 534 in 1989 alone

~ Total = 2,500

~ ABA predicts 120 failures in 2009

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~ Primarily loans for 1– 4 family residences

~ 45 percent of nonperforming loans

~ First mortgages, second mortgages, home equity lines and other loans secured by homes

~ (Indicates value of mortgage backed securities banks are trying to unload on fed. gov’t. …. taxpayers)

Real estate lending causing difficulty.

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We haven’t even begun to see the beginning of the end.

~ $27 billion = real estate (most acquired through foreclosure)

~ $11.5 billion in 1- 4 family homes

~ $8.7 billion construction/dev. property

~ $7.8 billion commercial R.E.

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Troubled commercial real estate loans just starting to surface.

~ New rules of examination

~ Special rules and treatment for banks with commercial R.E. concentrations 500% or more of capital; many of them

~ Lower default rate can still equal catastrophic results

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“It ain’t over ‘til it’s over.”~Yogi Berra~

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Jason L. RothSenior Vice President

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Dear Sirs,

In view of what seems to behappening internationally with banksat the moment, I was wonderingif you could advise me:

If one of my checks is returnedmarked “Insufficient Funds,” howdo I know whether that refers to me,or to you?

Sincerely,Concerned Customer

A letter to my bank.

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Banking in the Last Frontier

AK USAAK USAvsvs

How do Alaska banks compareto those in the “States?”

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12/08 09/08

Performing Mortgages 89.9% 93.3%

Prime Mortgages (2/3 Loans) 2.4% 1.1%

Alt – A 9.10% 5.18%

Sub-Prime Loans 16.4% 10.7%

Re-Default Rate 43% 37%

Source: FDIC

U. S. Mortgage Metrics

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12/08 12/07

Performing Loans 98.9% 99.3%

Default Rate 0.31% 0.31%

1 – 4 Family Serviced Loans

Source: FDIC

Alaska Mortgage Metrics

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2008 2007 Unemployment 6.8% 6.1% Single Family Permits -60.0% -33.4% Home Price Index 0.1% 5.1%

– Fourth Quarter 2008 -0.8%

– Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development

Alaska Indicators

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2008 2007

Loans to Assets 62.8% 58.4%

Non-current / Total Loans 4.12% 3.77%

ALLL / Non-current Loans 0.55% 1.11%

Source: FDIC Uniform Bank Performance Reports 12/31/08

Alaska Banking Indicators

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0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

Source FDIC

`

Return on AssetsMeasures overall effectiveness of managing and investing bank assets

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0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

SWS Associates LLC

Return on EquityMeasures the net after-tax return provided to shareholders

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0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

Regulatory Minimum

SWS Associates LLC

Risk-Based Capital RatioMeasures the level of capital relative to credit risk

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0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

Source FDIC

Leverage RatioMeasures capital relative to bank’s total assets

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0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

SWS Associates LLC

Loan Loss Provision to Average LoansCharge taken to establish reserves for possible future loan losses

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50.00

55.00

60.00

65.00

70.00

75.00

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Alaska Banks

First National Bank Alaska

National Average

Efficiency RatioMeasures a bank’s operating expenses as a percentage of income

SWS Associates

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Mark-to-Market

Devaluation of the U.S. Dollar

Won’t all this lead to inflation?

Just what’s up and why do we care:

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How is First National Bank Alaska doing?

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Total Loans Outstanding

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

$700,000,000

$800,000,000

$900,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,100,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,300,000,000

Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09

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Net Charge-Offs & Reserve for Loan Losses

($5,000,000)

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09

Net Charge-Offs

Reserve Balance

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Quarterly Net Charge-Offs vs. Net Income

($2,000,000)

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

Mar-99 Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09

Net Charge-Offs

Quarterly Income

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Total Average Assets

$1,400,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$1,600,000,000

$1,700,000,000

$1,800,000,000

$1,900,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,100,000,000

$2,200,000,000

$2,300,000,000

$2,400,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$2,600,000,000

Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09

TOTAL ASSETS

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First National Bank Alaska$1,000,000,000

$1,200,000,000

$1,400,000,000

$1,600,000,000

$1,800,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,200,000,000

Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08

Total Deposits

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$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

$40,000,000

$45,000,000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Net Income

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Produce and sell (Investment bank)

Produce and hold (Community bank)

Two different banking models:

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Sometimes ….what you don’t have

is as important as what you do have.

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Leveraged balance sheet

Loans outside of Alaska

Toxic investments (Legacy Assets)

What First National doesn’t have:

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Commodity prices & worldwide demand

- Gas line

- Mineral development

Federal dollars?

Tax & royalty payments to State

Stateside economy – tourism?

What’s the future look like for Alaska?

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If the company does well---

it’s because of good management.

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If the company does poorly---

it’s because of the economy.

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First National Bank Alaska has the capacity and strength to support

business in Alaska.

Our success will reflectthe success of our customers.

Bottom line:

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We view this as an opportunity.

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The State of BankingMarch 31, 2009