State Budget Update
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Transcript of State Budget Update
State Budget Update
Legislative Analyst’s Office
C.A.S.H. Fall ConferenceOctober 15, 2013
www.lao.ca.gov
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Update on U.S. Economy
Gross Domestic Product Projected to Grow About 3 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change
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Personal Income Projected to Grow About 5 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change
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S&P 500 Volatile But Projected to Grow Over Period Year-to-Year Percent Change
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Employment Projected to GrowLess Than 2 Percent AnnuallyYear-to-Year Percent Change
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Major Concerns
Federal Shutdown Debt Ceiling Impasse Downturn in Stock Market
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Update on California Economy
Payroll Employment GrowingIn Eight Industry SectorsPercent Change From August 2012 to August 2013
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Unemployment Rate for 12 Largest Counties Varies NotablyRate in August 2013
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Significant Increase in Housing Prices in State’s Large Metropolitan AreasPercent Change
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State Revenue Growth Linked With Stock Market GrowthYear-Over-Year Percent Change
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Revenue Update
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Budget Act Revenue AssumptionsGeneral Fund and Education Protection Account Combined(Dollars in Millions)
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General Fund ConditionUnder Budget ActGeneral Fund and Education Protection Account Combined(Dollars in Millions)
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2012-13 State Revenue UpdateYear End (In Millions)
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2013-14 State Revenue Update
Personal Income Tax (PIT) Withholding Above Projections
PIT Estimated Payments Above Projections Sales Tax Revenues Below Projections Corporate Tax Revenues Below Projections
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Education Budget Recap
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Proposition 98 FundingIn Millions
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Major 2012-13 ChangesIn Millions
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Major 2013-14 ChangesIn Millions
Programmatic Per-Pupil Funding ReboundingPer-Pupil Funding in Dollars
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Tracking Deferral PaydownsIn Millions
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Education Budget Outlook
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Pessimistic Scenario
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Best Guess Scenario
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Optimistic Scenario
Visit the LAO website at:www.lao.ca.gov
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