STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2011* Shelly...
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Transcript of STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF STATE FINANCE November 1, 2011* Shelly...
STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS
OFFICE OF STATE FINANCENovember 1, 2011*
Shelly PaulkRevenue Analyst
*To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November.
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures
(In Millions)
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
FY-05
FY-06
FY-07
FY-08
FY-09
FY-10
FY-11
FY-12
FY-13
FY-14
FY-15
FY-16
Actual Collections
Appropriations
$772.8$527.2
($104.3)
$503$621.3
OFFICIAL ESTIMATE$5,916.4m
$5,665.4m
$5,759.2m
Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1%
Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31%
Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8.22%) and ROADS increases (11 Session)
Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2012 Act – Normalized Ave. 2.97%
$5,969.3m
$267.9$156.9
$429.1
Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OSF actual numbers and effects of current law.
$5,236.3
$2,1
09.1
$2,1
48.4
$2,1
60.1
$2,3
00.3
$274
.3
$202
.8
$229
.5
$259
.6
$275
.9
$333
.1
$301
.8
$269
.4
$1,6
68.3
$1,7
47.4
$1,8
11.4
$1,8
77.6
$198
.6
$221
.3
$223
.1
$225
.0
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
FY-2011 FY-2012 FY-2013 FY-2014
Personal Income Tax
Corp. Income Tax
GP Gas
Sales Tax
Motor Vehicle Tax
General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions
(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)Ave.3.0% Growth
Ave. 0.1% Growth
Ave. 0.2% Growth
Ave. 4.0% Growth
Ave. 4.4% Growth
OSF ACTUAL 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED OSF PROJECTIONS
FY-2012 – FY-2014
SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS, LESS INC TAX CHANGE
JUNE BOE EST
$4,8
60
$4,0
20 $4,5
26
$4,6
53
$4,7
26
$4,9
32
$5,1
40
$5,4
15
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
FY-2009
FY-2010
FY-2011
FY-2012
FY-2013
FY-2014
FY-2015
FY-2016
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)
1.6%4.4% 4.2%
(17.3%)
OHLAP or ROADS Funding Not Removed
(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)
(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)
2.8%12.6%(6.7%)
ACTUALS Based on OSF 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, Less Pers Inc Tax Rate Change
5.4%
JUNE BOE ESTIMATE