Stat 662 Lecture Notes -- Tues., 3/28/06

1

Stat 662:

Environmental Statistics

Spring Quarter 2006

Instructor: Dr. Kate Calder

2

Introduction

QUESTION

What is environmental statistics?

3

Introduction

• Variability is inherent to environmental processes at every scale.

• Scientific Method => Experimental Design

•

•

•

• Typically, this framework is not applicable in environmental

studies.

4

Introduction

ENVIROMENTAL STUDIES

• Usually, a randomized controlled experiment cannot be

performed.

• Observations are often temporally and/or spatially dependent.

• Variability in environmental processes can be related to

exogenous factors, which often cannot be controlled.

5

Introduction

ENVIROMENTAL STUDES -- KEY STATISTICAL THEMES

1. Monitoring

2. Determining cause-effect relationships

3. Forecasting

6

Monitoring

EXAMPLE – Concentration of As in Drinking Water

Stat 662 Lecture Notes -- Tues., 3/28/06

2

7

Monitoring

EXAMPLE – Global Warming

(From Washington Post, Oct. 13, 2005)

8

Monitoring

Ice Core Paleoclimatology – Byrd Polar Research Center at OSU

(From http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/)

9

Monitoring

(From http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/) 10

Monitoring

(From http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/)

11

Monitoring

(From http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/)

12

Monitoring

(From http://www-bprc.mps.ohio-state.edu/)

Stat 662 Lecture Notes -- Tues., 3/28/06

3

13

Monitoring

EXAMPLE – Remote Sensing

(From http://www.stat.ohio-state.edu/~sses/ -- Image courtesy of S. Suzuki and E. De

Jong, Solar System Visualization Project, NASA, JPL/Caltech. JPL Image # P-49081)

14

Cause/Effect Relationships

EXAMPLE – Toxic Areas/Breast Cancer

(From the Huntington, Long Island Breast Cancer Action Coalition Survey --

http://www.hbcac.org/mapping.html)

15

Forecasting

EXAMPLE – Sea Level Rise

QUESTION

How will the melting of Antarctic sea ice impact the coastlines of Florida?

16

Forecasting

17

Forecasting

18

Forecasting

Stat 662 Lecture Notes -- Tues., 3/28/06

4

19

Forecasting

20

Course Topics

• Sampling Environmental Processes

• Modeling Environmental Processes

– Regression Models

– Toxicological Models

– Risk Analysis

– Time Series Analysis

– Spatial Statistics

Focus will be on applications and case studies.

21

Course Overview

• Website

http://www.stat.ohio-state.edu/~calder/stat662/

• Required Text

Environmental Statistics, Methods and Applications (2004)

By Vic Barnett

• Homework Assignments – posted on course website

• Midterm Exam – Thursday, May 4th

• Project – detailed description will be handed out in class and

posted on the course website

• Computing – next class

22

Schedule

Thursday, March 30th – regular class

Tuesday, April 4th – NO CLASS, instead you must* attend

MBI Workshop 5 – Uncertainty in Ecological Analysis

--and--

Department of Statistics Seminar

Emerging Capacity to Synthesize Data and Process: Application to the Biodiversity Paradox

James S. Clark, H.L. Blomquist Professor of Biology, Duke University

3:30PM Tuesday, April 4, 2006, Room 170 East Eighteenth Avenue Bldg. (EA 170)

Thursday, April 6th – Guest Instructor: Ms. Jessica Kohlschmidt

Tuesday, April 11th – Guest Instructor: Ms. Hongfei Li

Thursday, April 13th – regular class

* Please let me know as soon as possible if you will be unable to attend this lecture.

23

Notecards

• Name

• Preferred e-mail address

• Department

• Research area (if known)

• Previous experience with R?

• Have you taken the following courses or equivalent courses?1. Applied Regression Analysis (Stat 645)

2. Survey Sampling Methods (Stat 651)

3. Statistical Analysis of Time Series (Stat 635)

4. Generalized Linear Models (Stat 743)

5. Spatial Statistics (Stat 829)

• Reason for taking this course

• Anything else you would like me to know