Startup Metrics for Pirates (Sept 2012)
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Startup Metrics 4 Pirates!
GeeksOnaPlane 2012 Zagreb, Croatia
Sept 2012 - #GOAP #AARRR
Dave McClure @DaveMcClure http://500.co
http://500hats.typepad.com http://slideshare.net/dmc500hats
AARRR!
WARNING:
WARNING!!! this deck is guaranteed to offend,
provide tragically incorrect advice, and perhaps get you arrested.
Fucking Deal with it.
Dave McClure Developer, Entrepreneur, Marketer, Investor, GEEK!
00’s & 10’s: • Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media • Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook
80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups Seed Fund & Accelerator
(350+ companies, 20+ countries)
[ This Talk ]
Topics
• Basic Concepts of “Startup Metrics 4 Pirates” • 3 Steps to AARRR: Product, Market, Revenue • Constructing MVP: Just ONE Feature? • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) • Winning: Market, Revenue, Profit?
Key Concepts
• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) • AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) • WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
Geek Renaissance
• Tech Innovation • Finance Innovation • Design Innovation • Social Innovation • Global Innovation
Platforms 2.0 Search, Social, Mobile
What’s a Platform?
Users . . Money
Features
Growth Profit
Profitable Growth
Awesome
Successful Pla,orms have 3 Things: 1) Features 2) Users 3) Money
Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M+
• Search: Google (SEO/SEM)
• Social: Facebook, Twitter, Zynga, LinkedIn
• Mobile: Apple (iPhone, iPad), Android
• Media: YouTube (Video), Blogs, Photos
• Comm: Email, Chat, SMS, Voice
DO Marketing! (It’s Not Evil)
• Marketing is Both Qualitative + Quantitative • Qualitative: Create Emotion, Drive Action • Quantitative: Measure Results of Action • Design (UX) & Distribution (MKTG) Matter • Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%)
[ Interesting Shit. ]
Read Geoffrey Miller Sex + Evolution + Consumer Mktg = Awesome Sauce
More Great Shit. Psychology + Comics
[The Lean Startup]
[Startup Metrics 4 Pirates]
Just Gimme the GOOD Metrics. Users, Pages, Clicks, Emails, $$$...?
Q: Which of these is best? How do you know? • 1,000,000 one-time, unregistered unique visitors • 500,000 visitors who view 2+ pages / stay 10+ sec • 200,000 visitors who clicked on a link or button • 20,000 registered users w/ email address • 2,000 passionate fans who refer 5+ users / mo. • 1,000 monthly subscribers @ $5/mo
the good stuff.
The Lean Startup
• Talk to Customers; Discover Problems • Progress ≠ Features (Less = More) • Fast, Frequent Iteration (+ Feedback Loop) • Measure Conversion; Compare 2+ Options • Focus on Product/Market Fit (don’t “launch” b4) • Keep it Simple & Actionable
Discover Customers (Steve Blank, SteveBlank.com)
LEARN BUILD
MEASURE
IDEAS
CODE DATA
Iterate, Dammit. (Eric Ries, StartupLessonsLearned.com)
Product/Market Fit b4 “Launch” (Sean Ellis, Startup-Marketing.com)
Startup-Marketing.com
Growth
Transition to Growth
Product/Market Fit
AARRR!: 5-Step Startup Metrics Model
Website.com
Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce
Homepage / Landing Page
Product Features
ACQUISITION
SEO SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Retention
Emails & Alerts
System Events & Time-‐based Features
Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
Emails & widgets
Affiliates, Contests
Viral Loops
Startup Metrics for Pirates
• Acquisition: users come to site from various channels • Activation: users enjoy 1st visit: "happy” experience • Retention: users come back, visit site multiple times • Referral: users like product enough to refer others • Revenue: users conduct some monetization behavior
AARRR!
(note: If you’re in a hurry, Google “Startup Metrics” & watch 5m video)
One Step at a Time.
1. Make a Good Product: Activation & Retention 2. Market the Product: Acquisition & Referral 3. Make Money: Revenue & Profitability
“You probably can’t save your Ass and your Face at the same time… so choose carefully.” – DMC
Startup Challenges
Startups have problems in 3 key areas:
• Management: Set Priorities, Define Key Metrics
• Product: Build “Right” Features. Measure, Iterate.
• Marketing: Distribution, Distribution, Distribution. (Search, Social, Mobile)
Key Concepts
• MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$) • PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives) • AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics) • ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv) • WIN! = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue)
[ Constructing MVP ]
Role: Founder / CEO
Q: Which Customers? Problems? Metrics? Why? A: Focus on Critical Few Actionable Metrics
(if you don’t use the metric to make a decision, it’s not actionable)
• Hypothesize Customer Lifecycle • Target ~3-5 Conversion Events (tip: Less = More)
• Test, Measure, Iterate to Improve
Optimize 4 Happiness (both User + Business)
• Define States of User + Business Value • Prioritize (Estimate) Relative Value of Each State • Move Users: Lower Value -> Higher Value • Optimize for User Happiness + Business $$$ • Achieve High Cust Value + Low ACQ$ @ Scale
$$$
What is Minimum Viable Product?
MVP = F(Customer, Problem, Time or $$$)
• Focus on CUSTOMER – Qualitative Discovery, Quantitative Validation
• Get to know habits, problems, desires (FUN MATTERS) – what causes pain? what causes pleasure?
• Define 1-5 TESTABLE Conversion Metrics of Value – Attention/Usage (session time, clicks) – Customer Data (email, connect, profile) - Revenue (direct or indirect) - Retention (visits over time, cohort behavior) - Referral (users evangelize to other users)
• Note: Paid Solutions drive FOCUS (& pay rent)
Example Conversion Metrics (note: *not* actuals… your mileage may vary)
Stage Conversion Status Conv. %
Est. Value (*not* cost)
Acquisition Visitors -> Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don’t abandon)
60% $.05
Activation “Happy” 1st Visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)
15% $.25
Retention Users Come Back; Multiple Visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed open rate / CTR)
5% $1
Referral Users Refer Others (cust sat >=8; viral K factor > 1; )
1% $5
Revenue Users Pay / Generate $$$ (first txn, break-even, target profitability)
2% $50
KILL A FEATURE. Something Sucks. Find It. KILL It.
• STOP ADDING FEATURES.
• Find the ONE THING that users LOVE. • How to figure out? TAKE. SHIT. AWAY. • When they SCREAM, you’ve FOUND it. • Then Bring it Back… Only Better.
• Tip: KILL a Feature Every Week.
[ Getting 2 PMF ]
Role: Product / Eng / Design Q: What Features to Build? Why? When are you “Done”? A: Easy-to-Find, Fun/Useful, Unique Features that
Increase Conversion (stop iterating when increase decelerates) • Wireframes = Conversion Steps • Measure, A/B Test, Iterate FAST (daily/weekly) • Optimize for Conversion Improvement
– 80% on existing feature optimization – 20% on new feature development
What is Product/Market Fit? PMF = F(Customer, Solution, Alternatives*)
• Product / Market Fit occurs when: – Customers like your stuff better than other options – Not static, Not optimal – just Local Max 4 F(customers, solution, time) – make sure you’re moving in optimal direction 2 local max
• Q: what competitive solutions are available? – … that your customers know about? – how are you diff/same? – in ways that people care about? (will pay for)
• KILL a FEATURE regularly (or rotate 1% tests) – Q: what is MOST $ cust pay 4 LEAST func MVP relative 2 BEST alt?
• NICHE 2 WIN: RE-define cust + DIFFerentiated features
Better or Different.
Funny!
Shocking !!! Accepted
Not Funny.
[ Testing 4 AUX ]
Discover Meaning Why Should Users CARE About Your Product?
Kathy Sierra: “Creating Passionate Users”
Discover Meaning Keywords, Images, Call-to-Action
Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings
Relevant images • People • Products • Problems • Solutions
Call-to-Action • Words • Images • Context • Button/Link • Emotion
Result • Positive? • Negative? • Neutral (= Death) • A/B test & Iterate
How 2 Tell if Design/UX is Good?
AUX = F(Customer, Design/UX, Metrics)
• Don’t "LAUNCH" Until Your Product Doesn't Suck. – In fact, Stop Thinking about it as a Launch – it’s Continuous – Define Metrics, Measurability for Design / UX – Focus on Psychology of User – Relative to Competitive Alternatives (that your customers know about) – Keep Testing 4 Awesomeness! (Q: does it Rock Yet? )
• RAMP Mktg & $$$ AFTER it’s clear your MVP is: – Functional = useful for >1 customers – Differentiated = better than other stuff availabile – Awesome (see above)
• Minimum Viable Design = Minimum Viable Awesomeness – what's the crappiest thing u can release & still be awesome?
[ Metrics 4 ACQ ]
Role: Marketing / Sales
Q: What channels? Which users? Why? A: High Volume (#), Low Cost ($), High Conv (%)
• Design & Test Multiple Marketing Channels + Campaigns • Select & Focus on Best-Performing Channels & Themes • Optimize for conversion to target CTAs, not just site/landing page • Match/Drive channel cost to/below revenue potential
• Low-Hanging Fruit: – Blogs – SEO/SEM – Landing Pages – Automated Emails
Example Marketing Channels
• PR • Contest • Biz Dev • Direct Marketing • Radio / TV / Print • Dedicated Sales • Telemarketing
• Email • SEO / SEM • Blogs / Bloggers • Viral / Referral • Affiliate / CPA • Widgets / Apps • LOLCats ;)
MAARRRketing Plan
Marketing Plan = Target Customer Acquisition Channels • 3 Important Factors = Volume (#), Cost ($), Conversion (%) • Measure conversion to target customer actions • Test audience segments, campaign themes, Call-To-Action (CTAs)
[Gradually] Match Channel Costs => Revenue Potential • Increase Vol. & Conversion, Decrease Cost, Optimize for Revenue Potential • Avg Txn Value (ATV), Ann Rev Per User (ARPU), Cust Lifetime Value (CLV) • Design channels that (eventually) cost <20-50% of target ATV, ARPU, CLV
Consider Costs, Scarce Resource Tradeoffs • Actual $ expenses • Marketing time & resources • Product/Engineering time & resources • Cashflow timing of expense vs. revenue, profit
ACQ = F(Customer, Campaign, Vol, Cost, Conv)
[ What is WINNING? ]
Choose #WINNING Metrics
WIN = F(Customer, Usage, Dist, Revenue) • after MVP functional use, several options:
– better Usage – Activation & Retention (AUX) – more Users -- Distribution / Acquisition – mo' Money --- U Wants 2 Get Paid, Yo.
• understand ACQ$ vs REV$, optimize 4 short-term – High(er) volume usually a priority – costs may change as vol increases
[ The Lean Investor ]
Startup 2.0: “Lean Investor” Model
Method: Invest in startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with lots of small experiments, filter out failure, and expand investment upon success.
• Incubator: $0-250K (“Product Viability”) • Seed: $100K-$2M (“Expand Distribution”) • Venture: $1M-$5M (“Maximize Revenue”)
Investment #1: Incubate (“Product”)
• Structure – 1-3 founders – $25K-$250K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors
• Build Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – Concept->Alpha, ~3-6 months – Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works” – Instrument Basic Dashboard, Conversion Metrics – Test Cust. Adoption (10-1000 users) / Cust. Satisfaction (Scale: 1-10)
• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Follow-on Investment
Investment #2: Seed (“Market”) • Structure
– 2-5 person team – $100K-$2M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds
• Improve Product, Expand Market, Test Revenue: – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months – Customer Sat ≥ 6 => Get to “Doesn’t Suck” – Setup A/B Testing Framework, Optimize Conversion – Test Marketing Campaigns, Cust Acqstn Channels
• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment #3: Venture (“Revenue”)
• Structure – 5-10 person team – $1M-$5M investment – VC Investors
• Make Money, Get to Sustainability: – Beta->Production, 12-18 months – Customer Sat ≥ 8 => “It Rocks, I’ll Tell My Friends” – MktgPlan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget – Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations – Connect with Distribution Partners
• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
NOTE: Don’t Pitch Me, Bro.
Seriously: Don’t. Fucking. Pitch Me. (and don’t email me either, cuz i won’t read it)
Links & Resources Additional References:
• Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion Robert Cialdini (book)
• The Mating Mind Geoffrey Miller (book)
• Putting the Fun in Functional Amy Jo Kim (etech 2006 preso)
• Futuristic Play Andrew Chen (blog)
• Don’t Make Me Think Steve Krug (book)
• Designing for the Social Web Joshua Porter (book, website)
• Startup Lessons Learned Eric Ries (blog)
• Customer Development Methodology Steve Blank (presentation, blog)
• Startup-Marketing.com Sean Ellis (blog)
• KISSmetrics.com Hiten Shah / Neil Patel (website)
• How To Pitch a VC Dave McClure (slides, NSFW)
• Understanding Comics Scott McCloud (book)
Appendix
Startup Metrics
Activation
Website.com
Activation Criteria:
• 10-30+ seconds
• 2-3+ page views
• 3-5+ clicks
• 1 key feature usage
do LOTS of landing page & A/B tests –
make lots of dumb guesses & iterate FAST
Homepage / Landing Page
Product Features
SEO SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Activation
Activation What do users do on their first visit?
Example Activation Goals • Click on something! • Account sign up / Emails • Referrals / Tell a friend • Widgets / Embeds • Low Bounce Rate
Activation Tips • Less is more • Focus on user experience / usability • Provide incentives & call to actions • Test and iterate continuously
Activation What do users do on their first visit?
Key Metrics to Track ü Pages per visit ü Time on site ü Conversions
Activation Tools
Crazy Egg (Visual Click Mapping) http://crazyegg.com
Google Website Optimizer (A/B & Multivariate Testing) http://google.com/websiteoptimizer
Marketo.com (B2B Lead Generation Management) http://marketo.com
Resources Experimentation and Testing: A Primer
kaushik.net/avinash/2006/05/experimentation-and-testing-a-primer.html Landing Page Design Toolbox: 100 Tips & Tools
http://tinyurl.com/326co6 Landing Page Tutorials & Case Studies
http://www.copyblogger.com/landing-pages/ 101 Easy Easy to use Google Website Optimizer
http://conversion-rate-experts.com/articles/101-google-website-optimizer-tips/
Startup Metrics
Retention
Website.com
Homepage / Landing Page
Product Features
SEO SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Emails & Alerts
System Events & Time-‐based Features
Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
Automated emails:
• lifecycle emails @ +3, +7, +30d
• status / “best of” weekly/monthly
• “something happened” emails
BUT:
• make it easy to unsubscribe
Tip on emails:
• > 80% or more on SUBJECT LINE
• < 20% or less on BODY TEXT
Retention
Cohort Analysis: • Distrib of Visits over Time • Rate of Decay • Effective Customer Lifecycle Retention Methods ü Automated Emails
* Track open rate / CTR / Quantity
ü RSS / News Feeds * Track % viewed / CTR / Quantity
ü Widgets / Embeds * Track impressions / CTR / Quantity
Retention How do users come back? How often?
Example Retention Goals • 1 - 3+ visits per month • 20% open rate / 2% CTR • High deliverability / Low spam rating • Long customer life cycle / Low decay • Identify fanatics and cheerleaders
Retention Tips • Email is simple and it works • BUT make unsubscribe easy • 80% subject line / 20% body text • ACTUALLY 99% subject line / 1% body text • Fanatics = virality + affiliate channel (bloggers?)
Retention How do users come back? How often?
Retention How do users come back? How often?
Key Metrics to Track ü Source ü Quantity ü Conversions ü Visitor Loyalty ü Session Length
Retention Tools
Campaign Monitor / MailChimp (email newsletter software) campaignmonitor.com / mailchimp.com
TriggerMail (site-centric email management) triggermail.net
Litmus (email and website design testing - clients / browsers) litmusapp.com
Resources 30 free HTML email templates
campaignmonitor.com/resources/templates.aspx Best Practices in Writing Email Subject Lines
mailchimp.com/resources/best-practices-in-writing-email-subject-lines.phtml Learning Viral: Viral Emails of Tagged.com
okdork.com/2008/04/10/learning-viral-studying-taggedcom/
Startup Metrics
Acquisition
Website.com
Marketing Channels: • largest-volume (#) • lowest-cost ($) • best-performing (%)
Acquisition SEO
SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Acquisition Where are users coming from?
Acquisition Methods ü SEO / SEM ü Blogs ü Email ü Social Media &
Social Networks ü Domains
Acquisition Keyword Vocabulary
Top 10 - 100 words • Your Brand / Products • Customer Needs / Benefits • Competitor’s Brand / Products • Semantic Equivalents • Misspellings
Things to analyze • Sources • Volume • Cost • Conversion
Acquisition Where are users coming from?
Key Metrics to Track ü Quantity (#) ü Cost ($) ü Conversions (%)
Example
Acquisition Tools
Google Analytics (web analytics) google.com/analytics
Google Keyword Tool (keyword research tool) adwords.google.com/select/KeywordToolExternal
SEO Book Tools (SEO related tools) tools.seobook.com
Resources SEO Book Blog
seobook.com/blog The Social Media Manual: Read Before You Play
searchengineland.com/071120-144401.php Strategies to ruthlessly acquire users
andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/04/10_obvious_stra.html
Startup Metrics
Referral
Website.com
Homepage / Landing Page
Product Features
Acquisition
SEO SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Retention
Emails & Alerts
System Events & Time-‐based Features
Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
Emails & widgets
Affiliates, Contests
Viral Loops
Focus on driving referrals *after* users have a “happy” experience; avg score >= 8 out of 10
Referral
Referral How do users refer others?
Referral Methods ü Send to Friend:
Email / IM ü Social Media ü Widgets / Embeds ü Affiliates
Referral Viral Growth Factor
Viral Growth Factor = X * Y * Z X = % of users who invite other people Y = average # of people that they invited Z = % of users who accepted an invitation
A viral growth factor > 1 means an exponential organic user acquisition.
Referral Tools
Gigya (social media distribution & tracking tool) gigya.com
ShareThis / AddThis (sharing buttons) sharethis.com / addthis.com
GetMyContacts (PHP contacts importing & invitation software) getmycontacts.com
Resources Seven Ways to GO VIRAL
lsvp.wordpress.com/2007/03/02/seven-ways-to-go-viral/ What’s your viral loop? Understanding the engine of adoption
andrewchen.typepad.com/andrew_chens_blog/2007/07/whats-your-vira.html Metrics: Where Users Come From
slideshare.net/guest2968b8/rockyou-snap-summit-32508
Startup Metrics
Revenue
Website.com
Biz Dev Ads, Lead Gen, Subscriptions, ECommerce
Homepage / Landing Page
Product Features
Acquisition
SEO SEM
Apps & Widgets
Affiliates
PR Biz Dev
Campaigns, Contests
Direct, Tel, TV
Social Networks
Blogs
Domains
Retention
Emails & Alerts
System Events & Time-‐based Features
Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
Emails & widgets
Affiliates, Contests
Viral Loops
Revenue
This is the part *you* still have to figure out… (we don’t know jack about your business)
Revenue How do you make money?
Revenue Tips
• Don’t Rely on AdSense (only) • Start Free => 2% “Freemium” • Subscription / Recurring transactions • Qualify your customers -> Lead generation (arbitrage) • Sell something! (physical or virtual)
Revenue Resources & Tools
Revenue Metrics (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/47r63a
How to Create a Profitable “Freemium” Startup (Andrew Chen) http://tinyurl.com/8z9ygk
2008 Affiliate Marketing Review (Scott Jangro) http://tinyurl.com/86wak4