Stakeholder Technical Working Group

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Transcript of Stakeholder Technical Working Group

Stakeholder Technical Working Group - June 17, 20212
Continue discussion on updated DER forecasts Assumptions for best estimates of the tariff and program values for DER, EE and EoT
Deep dive LoadSEER/Synergi Further disaggregation forecasts by location and rate class Discussion on how LoadSEER is used to inform DER forecasts
Discussion on EV managed and unmanaged charging assumption Stakeholder Presentation: Blue Planet
Legislative updates on EVs in Hawai‘i, and How other jurisdictions account for EVs in IGP.
Hourly charging profiles for managed charging and associated assumptions Finalize inputs and assumptions on bookend sensitivities
Agenda
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Objectives Finalize recommendations for bookend sensitivity assumptions and assumptions for “best guess” DER programs Provide stakeholders information on the purpose of the LoadSEER model and how it is used to inform DER forecasts Determine if EV charging assumptions are reasonable, if not, what adjustments should be made
Key Questions What assumptions should be modified/considered to develop a revised DER forecast based on the “best guess” of new DER programs? What is the intended use case for disaggregation of forecasts by location and rate class? What level of granularity is needed in later years (i.e., post-2030)?
Objectives and Key Questions
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Primary focus is behind the meter PV and battery storage Other technologies included on ad hoc basis for known projects New additions of capacity in each month by island, rate class and program Monthly sales impact Hourly load impact Future capacity on distribution circuits
DER Forecast 5
Economic Choice Model Analyze historical relationship between adoption rate and economics Dependent variable: Percent of potential PV customers that installed
a system Independent variable: Payback time (years)
New capacity additions derived by incorporating 2 additional key assumptions: (% adoption) x (number of potential adopters) x (average system size)
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Federal Tax Credits -* COVID-19 Relief
State Tax Credits -* Increased 2021 to 35%
Includes EDR Program No Partial**
Addressable Residential Market
Occupied/Consumption Threshold
No Change
stories/Consumption Thresholds
No Change
System Size - Oahu [PV kW/BESS kWh] 7 kW/15.5 kWh No Change
Initial Updates to ECM Inputs – Base Case
*Forecasted Federal Tax and State Tax Incentive Rates can be found in previous FAWG presentations or in the IGP Input and Assumptions March 2021 draft. **Update included upfront incentives and general program timeline. Export rates assumed were based on Smart Export+ proposed by DER parties.
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$-
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8$ /k
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2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Installs (2021 IGP Update) Installs (2020 IGP Forecast)
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Non-economic factors that may affect uptake For stakeholders: How to quantify these factors to include into the forecasts?
Technology and installation costs are dropping, citing Ford announcement, DER quick connect, Bill 58 For stakeholders: What type of assumptions should be made on system costs?
Updated to use moderate NREL ATB costs. System size constraints based on limits to export compensation. For stakeholders: What assumptions should be made for export? How should the
average system size assumptions change? Non-traditional DER adoption For stakeholders: What type of other future programs should be modeled to capture
non-traditional DER adoption?
Stakeholder feedback from June 2, 2021 STWG regarding DER forecasts
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Addressable market Increase or decrease? By how much? Use an endpoint forecast (ex. 50% of residential homes by
20XX)? What will the market look like for EDR?
Long term program and compensation structure Future incentives Biden Infrastructure Plan
Uncertainty factors
LoadSEER
Distribution Planning Process – LoadSEER
Purpose of the LoadSEER model To create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing
historical data and corporate level forecasts To help in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure
that there is adequate capacity Established planning criteria provide the basis for
determining the adequacy of the electric distribution system
In situations where the criteria are not met grid needs will need to be identified
Update Integrated
tactical action plans
Resource and T&D
Solution/Bid Evaluation (5 months)
grid needs
Standard Contract Working
PUC & CA Review Point
Working Group/Process Step Deliverable
P P We are
Needs
• CBRE (Dkt. 2015-0389) • Stage 2 RFP (& Stage 3 RFP) • DER, DR Programs and Advanced Rate Design
(Dkt. 2019-0323) • NWA • EV Managed Charging (Dkt. 2016-0168)
• Microgrid Services Tariff (Dkt. 2018-0163) • Grid Modernization Strategy (Dkt. 2017-0226,
2018-0141, 2019-0327) • Performance Based Regulation (Dkt. 2018-
0088)
LoadSEER/SYNERGI
(Incl. Bookends)
(Prior-Year Data)
incorporating advanced inverter functions
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Takes hourly data and analyzes it for trends Normalizes periods where planned maintenance or system interruptions occurred Applies factor for weather normalization In other words “cleans” the raw SCADA data Create Base Load with SCADA data when available
LoadSEER: SCADAScrubber Module - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing historical data
Hourly kw data (8760) for a sample circuit
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Disaggregate corporate demand forecast Create LoadSEER input files based on corporate demand forecast and other inputs Create LoadSEER runs (ex. Load growth, DER, EE, EV) that can be “layered” onto the base load Create circuit and transformer level forecasts with the spatial allocation layers and SCADA base load
LoadSEER: Spatial Allocation Forecast - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing Corporate Demand Forecast
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Each LoadSEER run (ex. Load growth, DER, EE, EV) can be “layered” onto the base load
LoadSEER: Spatial Allocation Forecast - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing Corporate Demand Forecast
Hourly kw data (8760) for sample spatial allocation “layer”
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Adds known new spot load/generation location to the model Adds known customers and associated class load shape types
LoadSEER: Map Adjustments
Forecasted Load – Base Load, Spatial Allocation Forecast, and Map Adjustments
LoadSEER: Circuit Level Forecasts - helps in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure that there is adequate capacity
Capacity
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To Year 5
LoadSEER: Circuit Level Forecasts - helps in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure that there is adequate hosting capacity
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92%
% OF CIRCUITS IN HC ANALYSIS STEPS (CURRENT STATUS)
Step 1: Initial Screen Step 2: SYNERGI Analysis Step 3: SYNERGI/EPRI Analysis
Analysis to determine if grid needs are required due to local constraints to meet 5-yr DER forecast.
Updates HC based on multiple load flow runs (probabilistic analysis) • % of circuits HC being evaluated. If
DER forecast > HC, grid need identified.
Updates HC based on loadflow analysis • % of circuits HC being evaluated.
Determine if issues can be resolved with setting changes (vs. grid need).
Check available HC to meet DER forecast. • % of circuits that have sufficient HC for
the 5-yr forecast. No upgrades needed.
Initial Screen
SYNERGI Analysis
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Average charging profile inputs into the EV forecast Assumes that the driver will plug in their vehicle and begin charging as soon as they arrive at a location with charging access
Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging
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Utilizes proposed time-of-use rates for new EV pilot programs in Docket 2020-0152 Underlying trip data is the same; managed and unmanaged charging have the same annual loads Assumes the driver will optimize their charging and shift usage to minimize cost
Managed Electric Vehicle Charging
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What is the appropriate uptake to assume for higher or lower levels of EV and EE? What are the policy drivers that would affect DER, EE, and EV? Do the bookends create a reasonable envelope around the potential for each of these layers?
Proposed Bookend Sensitivity
Stakeholder Technical Working Group
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch R
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch G
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch J
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch P
IHS Markit vs. NREL ATB Costs
Economic Choice Model – Forecasted Installs
Stakeholder feedback from June 2, 2021 STWG regarding DER forecasts
Additional Bookend Sensitivities Discussion
Distribution Planning Process – LoadSEER
LoadSEER: Disaggregation of Corporate Forecast
LoadSEER: Spatial Allocation Forecast - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing Corporate Demand Forecast
LoadSEER: Map Adjustments
LoadSEER: Circuit Level Forecasts - helps in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure that there is adequate capacity
Slide Number 27
Electric Vehicle Charging Assumptions
Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging
Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging
Managed Electric Vehicle Charging
Managed Electric Vehicle Charging