Designing socio-technical systems: from stakeholder goals to social networks
Stakeholder Technical Working Group
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Stakeholder Technical Working Group June 17, 2021
Transcript of Stakeholder Technical Working Group
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Stakeholder Technical Working GroupJune 17, 2021
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Continue discussion on updated DER forecasts Assumptions for best estimates of the tariff and program values for DER, EE and EoT
Deep dive LoadSEER/Synergi Further disaggregation forecasts by location and rate class Discussion on how LoadSEER is used to inform DER forecasts
Discussion on EV managed and unmanaged charging assumption Stakeholder Presentation: Blue Planet
‒ Legislative updates on EVs in Hawai‘i, and ‒ How other jurisdictions account for EVs in IGP.
Hourly charging profiles for managed charging and associated assumptionsFinalize inputs and assumptions on bookend sensitivities
Agenda
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ObjectivesFinalize recommendations for bookend sensitivity assumptions and assumptions for “best guess” DER programsProvide stakeholders information on the purpose of the LoadSEER model and how it is used to inform DER forecastsDetermine if EV charging assumptions are reasonable, if not, what adjustments should be made
Key QuestionsWhat assumptions should be modified/considered to develop a revised DER forecast based on the “best guess” of new DER programs?What is the intended use case for disaggregation of forecasts by location and rate class?What level of granularity is needed in later years (i.e., post-2030)?
Objectives and Key Questions
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Updated DER Forecasts
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Primary focus is behind the meter PV and battery storageOther technologies included on ad hoc basis for known projectsNew additions of capacity in each month by island, rate class and programMonthly sales impactHourly load impactFuture capacity on distribution circuits
DER Forecast5
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Economic Choice ModelAnalyze historical relationship between adoption rate and economics Dependent variable: Percent of potential PV customers that installed
a system Independent variable: Payback time (years)
New capacity additions derived by incorporating 2 additional key assumptions:(% adoption) x (number of potential adopters) x (average system size)
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Input Initial UpdateCost Projections IHS Markit NREL ATB
Federal Tax Credits -* COVID-19 Relief
State Tax Credits -* Increased 2021 to 35%
Includes EDR Program No Partial**
Addressable Residential Market
Single Family/2-4 Unit Multi-Family/Owner
Occupied/Consumption Threshold
No Change
Addressable Commercial MarketPublic or Private Owned/<6
stories/Consumption Thresholds
No Change
System Size - Oahu [PV kW/BESS kWh] 7 kW/15.5 kWh No Change
Initial Updates to ECM Inputs – Base Case
*Forecasted Federal Tax and State Tax Incentive Rates can be found in previous FAWG presentations or in the IGP Input and Assumptions March 2021 draft.**Update included upfront incentives and general program timeline. Export rates assumed were based on Smart Export+ proposed by DER parties.
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0%
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40%
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2020
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% S
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Oahu Sch-R DER Saturation
Saturation Pool Remaining Pool
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch R
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
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12,000
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/201
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2018
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% S
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Cus
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Oahu Sch-G DER Saturation
Saturation Pool Remaining Pool
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch G
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0%
5%
10%
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30%
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40%
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
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2012
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2012
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2012
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134/
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137/
1/20
1310
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1/1/
2014
4/1/
2014
7/1/
2014
10/1
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1/20
154/
1/20
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1/20
1510
/1/2
015
1/1/
2016
4/1/
2016
7/1/
2016
10/1
/201
61/
1/20
174/
1/20
177/
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2018
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2018
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2018
10/1
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% S
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Cus
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Oahu Sch-J DER Saturation
Saturation Pool Remaining Pool
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch J
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2014
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154/
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1510
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2016
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1/20
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% S
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Cus
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Oahu Sch-P DER saturation
Saturation Pool Remaining Pool
DER Saturation – Oahu Sch P
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IHS Markit vs. NREL ATB Costs
$-
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
$5,000.00
2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
[201
8$/k
W]
IHS Capital - Res PV NREL ATB Capital - Res PV
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Economic Choice Model – Forecasted Installs
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050
Installs (2021 IGP Update) Installs (2020 IGP Forecast)
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Non-economic factors that may affect uptake For stakeholders: How to quantify these factors to include into the forecasts?
Technology and installation costs are dropping, citing Ford announcement, DER quick connect, Bill 58 For stakeholders: What type of assumptions should be made on system costs?
Updated to use moderate NREL ATB costs.System size constraints based on limits to export compensation. For stakeholders: What assumptions should be made for export? How should the
average system size assumptions change?Non-traditional DER adoption For stakeholders: What type of other future programs should be modeled to capture
non-traditional DER adoption?
Stakeholder feedback from June 2, 2021 STWG regarding DER forecasts
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Addressable market Increase or decrease? By how much? Use an endpoint forecast (ex. 50% of residential homes by
20XX)? What will the market look like for EDR?
Long term program and compensation structureFuture incentives Biden Infrastructure Plan
Uncertainty factors
Additional Bookend Sensitivities Discussion
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LoadSEER & SYNERGI
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Forecast
• Collection of Historical Data
• Load & DER Forecasts
• Load & DER Profiles
Analysis
• Distribution Planning Criteria
• Hosting Capacity• Contingency
Analysis• Grid Needs
Identification
Solution Options
• Solution Requirements
• Wires Solutions• Non-Wires
Solutions
Evaluation
• Evaluation of Solutions
• Solution Sourcing• Solution Selection
Solution Implementation
Stages of the Distribution Planning Process
LoadSEER
Synergi Analysis: Grow/EPRI Methodology
Grid Needs Assessment/Procurement
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Distribution Planning Process – LoadSEER
Purpose of the LoadSEER model To create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing
historical data and corporate level forecasts To help in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure
that there is adequate capacity‒ Established planning criteria provide the basis for
determining the adequacy of the electric distribution system
‒ In situations where the criteria are not met grid needs will need to be identified
Update Integrated
System PlanLong-range resource plans with strategic, policy and
tactical action plans
Integrated Grid Needs Planning
(6 months)Grid Needs Assessment for
Resource and T&D
Integrated Solution Sourcing
(6 months)Energy Efficiency,
Procurements,Programs,
Pricing2020 Forecasts & Other Planning Inputs
Solution/Bid Evaluation(5 months)
Selection of resources to meet
grid needs
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New IGP Cycle
2
Regulatory Approval
Dependent
Resilience Working Group
Competitive Procurement Working Group
Distribution Planning Working Group
Forecast Assumptions Working Group
Solution Evaluation and Optimization Working Group
Standard Contract Working
Group
Technical Advisory Panel
Stakeholder Council
Stakeholder Technical Working Group
Pre-Procurement Preparation
IGP Coordination with Other Initiatives - Programs, Pricing & Procurement
PUC & CA Review Point
Working Group/Process Step Deliverable
Legend
Working Group
Process Step
Regulatory Filing
Board/Council
P Public Meeting
Other InitiativesIGP Workplan Update
P PWe are
here
NWAResilience
Needs
• CBRE (Dkt. 2015-0389)• Stage 2 RFP (& Stage 3 RFP)• DER, DR Programs and Advanced Rate Design
(Dkt. 2019-0323)• NWA• EV Managed Charging (Dkt. 2016-0168)
• Microgrid Services Tariff (Dkt. 2018-0163)• Grid Modernization Strategy (Dkt. 2017-0226,
2018-0141, 2019-0327)• Performance Based Regulation (Dkt. 2018-
0088)
Follow-onSolutionSourcingDist Plng Process
LoadSEER/SYNERGI
Distribution Planning & IGP Process
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DER Hosting Capacity Review
Current Distribution Planning Process
Corporate Demand Forecast (Sales, DER, EE, EV)
(Incl. Bookends)
Substation and Circuit Data (hourly)
(Prior-Year Data)
Service Requests (hourly)
Marketing/ Media (hourly)
Economic, Weather, Spatial Forecasts
LoadSEER
SYNERGI(Distribution Power
Flow) Grid Needs Assessment
(Scenario-Based)
Non-Wires Alternative Solution
Traditional Solution
Incorporated in IGP Process
EPRI Hourly Methodology (as
needed)
Distribution Capacity:• Circuit and transformer overloads• Further analysis can determine N-1
overloads (ie. circuit or transformer failure)Hosting Capacity Analysis:• Voltage issues, DER HC issues• Estimate of secondary upgrades,
incorporating advanced inverter functions
Location-Specific Load Forecast
Forecast Analysis Solution Options
Location-Specific DER Forecast
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Takes hourly data and analyzes it for trendsNormalizes periods where planned maintenance or system interruptions occurredApplies factor for weather normalizationIn other words “cleans” the raw SCADA data Create Base Load with SCADA data when available
LoadSEER: SCADAScrubber Module - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing historical data
Hourly kw data (8760) for a sample circuit
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Disaggregate corporate demand forecastCreate LoadSEER input files based on corporate demand forecast and other inputsCreate LoadSEER runs (ex. Load growth, DER, EE, EV) that can be “layered” onto the base loadCreate circuit and transformer level forecasts with the spatial allocation layers and SCADA base load
LoadSEER: Spatial Allocation Forecast - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing Corporate Demand Forecast
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System Load
Residential Contribution
Residential Contribution
(R)
Commercial Contribution
Large Power Directly Served
Contribution(DS)
Public Lighting
Contribution(F)
General Service
Non-Demand
Contribution(G)
General Service Demand
Contribution(J)
Large Power Service
Contribution(P)
Distributed Energy Resources
Residential Programs
Commercial Programs
Energy Efficiency
Electric Vehicles
LoadSEER: Disaggregation of Corporate Forecast
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Each LoadSEER run (ex. Load growth, DER, EE, EV) can be “layered” onto the base load
LoadSEER: Spatial Allocation Forecast - create circuit and transformer level forecasts utilizing Corporate Demand Forecast
Hourly kw data (8760) for sample spatial allocation “layer”
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New Service Requests or known large generation added to map
Adds known new spot load/generation location to the modelAdds known customers and associated classload shape types
LoadSEER: Map Adjustments
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Forecasted Load – Base Load, Spatial Allocation Forecast, and Map Adjustments
LoadSEER: Circuit Level Forecasts - helps in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure that there is adequate capacity
Capacity
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Existing PVCkt 1
Existing PVCkt 2
Existing PVCkt x
Forecasted PV
Ckt 1
Forecasted PV
Ckt 2
Forecasted PV
Ckt x
Year 1
Forecasted PV
Ckt 1
Forecasted PV
Ckt 2*
Forecasted PV
Ckt x
Year 2LoadSEER report
To Year 5
LoadSEER: Circuit Level Forecasts - helps in the analysis of the electrical system to ensure that there is adequate hosting capacity
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Hosting Capacity (HC) Update (5-yr forecast)
92%
71% 75%
6%
29% 25%
1%
HAW AIIAN ELECTRIC MAUI ELECTRIC HAW AII ELECTRIC LIGHT
% OF CIRCUITS IN HC ANALYSIS STEPS (CURRENT STATUS)
Step 1: Initial Screen Step 2: SYNERGI AnalysisStep 3: SYNERGI/EPRI Analysis
Analysis to determine if grid needs are required due to local constraints to meet 5-yr DER forecast.
Updates HC based on multiple load flow runs (probabilistic analysis)• % of circuits HC being evaluated. If
DER forecast > HC, grid need identified.
Updates HC based on loadflow analysis• % of circuits HC being evaluated.
Determine if issues can be resolved with setting changes (vs. grid need).
Check available HC to meet DER forecast.• % of circuits that have sufficient HC for
the 5-yr forecast. No upgrades needed.
Initial Screen
SYNERGI Analysis
EPRI Analysis/SYNERGI
(Oahu only)
DER Forecast
> Hosting Capacity
DER Forecast
> Hosting Capacity
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Electric Vehicle Charging Assumptions
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Average charging profile inputs into the EV forecastAssumes that the driver will plug in their vehicle and begin charging as soon as they arrive at a location with charging access
Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging
See FAWG August 27, 2019 meeting materials
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Unmanaged Electric Vehicle Charging
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Utilizes proposed time-of-use rates for new EV pilot programs in Docket 2020-0152Underlying trip data is the same; managed and unmanaged charging have the same annual loadsAssumes the driver will optimize their charging and shift usage to minimize cost
Managed Electric Vehicle Charging
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Managed Electric Vehicle Charging
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Bookend Sensitivities
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What is the appropriate uptake to assume for higher or lower levels of EV and EE?What are the policy drivers that would affect DER, EE, and EV? Do the bookends create a reasonable envelope around the potential for each of these layers?
Proposed Bookend Sensitivity
Assumption
Slower Customer
Technology Adoption
Base
Faster Customer
Technology Adoption
High Load
DER Market Forecast
HE Company Proposal
DER Parties Proposal
Market Forecast
Electric Vehicles
EV-- Market Forecast
EV++ EV++
Energy Efficiency
EE-- Market Forecast
EE++ EE--
Time-of-Use None Managed EV Managed EV None
