STAGE II HYDROLOGY REPORT FOR THE MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE RIVER ... River catchment ab… ·...
Transcript of STAGE II HYDROLOGY REPORT FOR THE MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE RIVER ... River catchment ab… ·...
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Consultative Group Meeting
20 July 2011
STAGE II HYDROLOGY REPORT FOR
THE MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE
RIVER CATCHMENT
Bryce Graham
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
•The Catchment
•Stream Flow Monitoring
•Stream Flow Pattern
•Catchment Model
•Water Management Regions
•Surface Water Yields
•Sustainable Allocation Limits
•Surface Water Allocations
•Combining Allocation Limits and Water Allocations
•Summary
OVERVIEW
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
MACQUARIE RIVER ABOVE LAKE RIVER CATCHMENT
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
MACQUARIE RIVER
ABOVE LAKE RIVER
CATCHMENT RAINFALL
ANNUAL AVERAGE 500 MM
IN LOW LYING AREAS TO
1200 MM IN HIGHLAND
CATCHMENT ANNUAL
AVERAGE 580 MM
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
CURRENT DPIPWE
OPERATED STREAM
GAUGES WITHIN THE
CATCHMENT
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
HISTORICAL & CURRENT GAUGING STATIONS
Site LocationCatchment
area (km2)Period of Record
8 Elizabeth River at Campbell Town 352.0 01/01/1922 – 30/09/1930
9 Elizabeth River at Lake Leake 64.8 01/08/1993 – 25/03/1997
20 Macquarie River at Ross 1497.0 02/10/1990 – 19/11/1993
83 Blackman River at Tunbridge 233.0 01/07/1925 – 31/08/1930
91 Isis River at Barton 241.0 26/05/1937 – 31/01/1947
259 Macquarie River at Morriston 387.0 23/04/1991 – 19/11/1993
18205 Birralee Creek u/s Kittys Rivulet 33.0 13/05/1971 - 29/08/1986
18206 Tooms River d/s Tooms Lake 60.2 03/07/1973 – current
18210 Macquarie River d/s Longmarsh Dam 89.7 22/05/1975 - 05/10/1990
18211 Elizabeth River d/s Lake Leake 69.7
06/09/1976 – 23/09/1996
and
03/03/2007 -- current
18217 Macquarie River at Trefusis 365.0 11/07/1979 – current
18228 Back Run Creek 16.0 02/07/1985 – 16/06/1994
18304 Macquarie River at Coburg 2683.0 09/01/1990 – 05/07/1994
18309 Macquarie River u/s Lake River (‘Coburg’) 2694.0 06/06/2007 – current
18310 Elizabeth River u/s Macquarie 399.95 01/01/1988 – 05/09/1995
18312Macquarie River d/s Elizabeth River
Junction (‘Morningside’)1953.0 24/01/1989 - current
18313Macquarie River u/s Elizabeth River
junction (‘Fosterville’)1525 26/07/2004 – current
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
1.0
10
100
1000
10000
18217.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [AT TREFUSIS] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (Full period of record)
Flow (Ml/Day)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
1.0
10
100
1000
10000
18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (Full period of record)
Flow (Ml/Day)
Gauging Station
Observed
Average Annual
Yield (ML)
Observed Median
Annual
Yield(ML/d)
Macquarie River at Trefusis 54789 37907
Macquarie at Morningside 118319 93766
OBSERVED FLOW AND YIELD @ GAUGING STATIONS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
OBSERVED FLOW AT STREAM GAUGES (TREFUSIS)
1980 1990 2000 2010
1.0
10
100
1000
10000
Period(01/07/1979 @ 00:00:00 to 18/07/2011 @ 11:00:00)
18217.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [AT TREFUSIS] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day
Const(10.000000)
Const(100.000000)
Const(1000.000000)
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
OBSERVED FLOW AT STREAM GAUGES (MORNINGSIDE)
1990 2000 2010
1.0
10
100
1000
10000
Period(01/01/1989 @ 00:00:00 to 18/07/2011 @ 11:00:00)
18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day
Const(10.000000)
Const(100.000000)
Const(1000.000000)
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
CATCHMENT WATER
BALANCE MODEL
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
WHY DO WE NEED A CATCHMENT MODEL??
Forecasts of future seasonal stream flows are valuable to a range of water
managers and users, including irrigators, urban and rural water supply
authorities, environmental managers and hydroelectricity generators.
Such forecasts can inform planning and management decisions
available water resources and to ensure security of supply.
While the catchment has a reasonable coverage of stream flow
monitoring sites, only a handful have a long term record and the
coverage across the catchment does not allow for yield
estimates for all rivers and streams.
Model can generate stream flow trends over long periods: into past and
into the future. Allows statistical analysis to be performed.
Macquarie River above Lake River catchment model is a simple rainfall-
runoff water balance model.
An assessment of the catchment tributary yields is required for water
management planning.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
2001 May 2001 Jun 2001 Jul 2001 Aug 2001 Sep 2001 Oct 2001 Nov
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Period(01/05/2001 @ 00:00:00 to 01/11/2001 @ 00:00:00)
Trefusis Observed Flow (Ml/day)
Trefusis Modelled Flow (Ml/day)
Macquarie River catchment Hydrological Model
Hydrological Model Calibration
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Poor, R2<0.65;
Fair, 0.65<R2<0.70;
Good, R2>0.70
2001 2002
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Period(01/01/2001 @ 00:00:00 to 01/01/2002 @ 00:00:00)
observed flow
current flow
natural flow
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 1001
10
100
1000
10000
100000
18312.1/100.00/1: MACQUARIE RIVER [D/S ELIZABETH] (PTo(140.02,0)) - Flw Ml/day (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)
C:\CATCHMENT_MODELS\Macquarie_Model_Upgrade\Output\report_calibration\morningside_J17_current_2001.tsf (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)
C:\CATCHMENT_MODELS\Macquarie_Model_Upgrade\Output\report_calibration\morningside_J17_natural_2001.tsf (01/01/2001 to 01/01/2002)
Flow (ML/day)
Flow (ML/day)
(a) Time Series Analysis (2001) at Morningside
(b) Duration Analysis (2001) at Morningside
Current flow Observed flow Natural flow
Monthly R2
Trefusis 0.77
Morningside 0.68
Hydrological Model Calibration
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Regulated catchment, difficult to match
observed and modelled flow.
Water restrictions not taken into account.
Change in topography, lower part of
catchment low lying compared to upper
catchment.
Difficulties in understanding use patterns and
amounts of water extracted.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
WATER MANAGEMENT
REGIONS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
SURFACE WATER
YIELDS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Macquarie
above
Blackman
Blackman
Macquarie
above
Elizabeth
ElizabethMacquarie
above IsisIsis
Macquarie
above Lake
Jan 5270 2213 8347 2801 12651 1202 14598
Feb 2074 895 3509 1203 5678 532 6720
Mar 3152 941 4596 2127 7404 684 8247
Apr 2998 1211 4766 1988 7537 979 8669
May 8233 2258 12303 6363 21603 2655 25257
Jun 15788 3050 22675 12092 39057 4168 44291
Jul 16831 4446 26645 13568 47905 7003 57923
Aug 16223 4299 24978 13322 44505 6130 52709
Sep 13684 4037 22977 12576 43236 6770 53159
Oct 9113 2376 14368 7332 25650 3365 30748
Nov 6703 3178 11661 4500 18438 2481 21571
Dec 8180 3541 13259 5088 20812 2406 23737
Summer 21674 8801 34477 13207 54082 5803 61971
Winter 86575 23644 135607 69753 240394 32572 285658
Annual 108249 32444 170084 82961 294476 38374 347629
NATURAL FLOW YIELDS
Yields in ML
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
RELIABILITY OF YIELDS IN EACH WMR
Period Reliability
Macquarie
above
Blackman
Blackman
Macquarie
above
Elizabeth
ElizabethMacquarie
above IsisIsis
Macquarie
above Lake
Direct 80% (ML) 5,859 2,333 10,468 3,349 16,631 1,889 19,484
Direct 70% (ML) 7,501 3,107 11,499 4,568 18,265 2,099 20,858
Direct 60% (ML) 8,914 3,568 14,109 5,955 23,910 2,812 28,122
Direct 50% (ML) 10,789 4,397 17,352 6,456 29,010 3,401 33,459
Direct 40% (ML) 13,259 6,146 22,382 8,866 32,464 4,563 38,901
Direct 30% (ML) 20,876 9,490 37,160 13,565 59,006 4,856 68,221
Direct 20% (ML) 25,693 13,694 44,435 16,521 69,550 9,334 79,559
Direct EWR (ML) 3,399 1,725 6,324 1,963 10,305 1,232 12,421
Storage 80% (ML) 21,262 5,135 37,268 26,998 78,979 10,673 97,736
Storage 70% (ML) 27,373 6,528 46,562 35,612 102,921 15,801 130,567
Storage 60% (ML) 46,487 9,403 69,730 43,039 134,122 21,844 157,753
Storage 50% (ML) 60,295 14,518 98,131 53,957 183,808 27,533 224,267
Storage 40% (ML) 85,161 17,311 120,303 72,416 218,920 32,563 262,168
Storage 30% (ML) 121,255 25,962 178,385 101,275 330,645 41,606 393,110
Storage 20% (ML) 147,058 41,354 228,467 109,303 390,061 54,006 477,009
Storage EWR (ML) 11,261 2,580 20,262 11,589 37,279 3,985 45,276
Yields in ML
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
SUSTAINABLE ALLOCATION
LIMITS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
SUSTAINABLE ALLOCATION LIMITS
Surety Level 5 Allocation Limit = 80% Reliability volume - Environmental Water Requirement (EWR).
Surety Level 6 Allocation Limit = 20% x (50% Reliability volume - 80% Reliability volume).
Period
Macquarie
above
Blackman
Blackman
Macquarie
above
Elizabeth
ElizabethMacquarie
above IsisIsis
Macquarie
above Lake
Direct (Dec - Apr)
Surety 5 Allocation
Limit (ML)2,460 609 4,145 1,386 6,326 657 7,063
Surety 6 Allocation
Limit (ML)986 413 1,377 621 2,476 302 2,795
Storage (May-Nov)
Surety 5 Allocation
Limit (ML)10,002 2,555 17,006 15,409 41,701 6,689 52,460
Surety 6 Allocation
Limit (ML)7,806 1,877 12,173 5,392 20,966 3,372 25,306
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
CLIMATE CHANGE
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
TAS SY AND CLIMATE FUTURES FOR TASMANIA
ProjectTasmanian Sustainable
Yields
Climate
Futures for
Tasmania
Scen C
Wet
Scen C
Mid
Scen C
Dry
Central
Estimate#
Projected %
change in future
run-off, relative to
historical record
6% -6% -11% 4%
Use Scenario C dry for future allocation, allocate up to 89%
of Sustainable Allocation Limits to ensure entitlements into
the future under a changing climate
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
SURFACE WATER
ALLOCATIONS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Macquarie above
BlackmanBlackman
Macquarie above
ElizabethElizabeth
Macquarie above Isis
IsisMacquarie above Lake
Total
Type SuretyAllocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML)Allocation
(ML) (ML)Direct 1 114.70 451.70 6.20 572.60
3 277.82 231.00 135.00 643.82
5 4,669.50 117.50 9,274.00 30.00 14,091.006 4,460.00 5,471.00 9,931.008 40.00 40.00
Total 9,129.50 510.02 0.00 15,427.70 6.20 165.00 40.00 25,278.42
Storage 1 25.00 75.00 5.00 8.25 113.25
5 4,204.50 2,203.50 210.00 628.00 4,792.00 618.00 915.08 13,571.086 0.007 1,624.00 1,624.00
8 15,691.00 9,750.50 1,851.90 4,184.80 8,460.50 3,054.00 6,288.00 49,280.70
Total 19,920.50 12,029.00 2,061.90 4,812.80 13,257.50 5,296.00 7,211.33 64,589.03
Unknown 100.00Overall Total 89,967.45
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
ALLOCATION LIMITS AND
WATER ALLOCATIONS
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Management Zones
Allocation
Limit for S5
(ML)
Existing S5
Allocations
(ML)
Cumulative
S5
Allocations
(ML)
Macquarie above Blackman 2,460 4,670 4,670
Blackman 609 118 118
Macquarie above Elizabeth 4,145 0 4,788
Elizabeth 1,386 5,905 5,905
Macquarie above Isis 6,326 0 10,693
Isis 657 30 30
Macquarie above Lake 7,063 0 10,723
DIRECT TAKE PERIOD SURETY 5 LEVEL
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
DIRECT TAKE PERIOD SURETY 6 LEVEL
Management Zones
Allocation
Limit for S6
(ML)
Existing S6
Allocations
(ML)
Cumulative
S6
Allocations
(ML)
Macquarie above Blackman 986 4,460 4,460
Blackman 413 0 0
Macquarie above Elizabeth 1,377 0 4,460
Elizabeth 621 5,471 5,471
Macquarie above Isis 2,476 0 9,931
Isis 302 0 0
Macquarie above Lake 2,795 0 9,931
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Management Zones
Allocation
Limit for S5
(ML)
Existing S5
Allocations
(ML)
Cumulative
S5
Allocations
(ML)
Macquarie above Blackman 10,002 8,844 8,844
Blackman 2,555 2,204 2,204
Macquarie above Elizabeth 17,006 210 11,258
Elizabeth 15,409 9,708 9,708
Macquarie above Isis 41,701 4,792 25,758
Isis 6,689 618 618
Macquarie above Lake 52,460 915 27,291
STORAGE TAKE PERIOD SURETY 5 LEVEL
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
STORAGE TAKE PERIOD SURETY 6 LEVEL
Management Zones
Allocation
Limit for S6
(ML)
Existing S6
Allocations
(ML)
Cumulative
S6
Allocations
(ML)
Macquarie above Blackman 7,806 4,460 4,460
Blackman 1,877 0 0
Macquarie above Elizabeth 12,173 0 4,460
Elizabeth 5,392 5,471 5,471
Macquarie above Isis 20,966 0 9,931
Isis 3,372 0 0
Macquarie above Lake 25,306 0 9,931
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
SUMMARY
• the average annual runoff yield is 347,629 ML;
• 82% of this yield is generated during winter runoff;
• the current annual volume of water allocated is 89,967 ML;
• current allocations represent 26% an 35% of the average and median
annual yields respectively;
• the catchment is fully allocated during the direct take period;
• 40,544 ML of water is potentially available for allocation in the storage
period (May to November inclusive);
• a very large amount of water has been allocated at a Surety Levels 7
and 8 (51,005 ML);
• notwithstanding the potential availability of 40,544 ML in the storage
allocation period, the very large volume of water allocated at Surety
Levels 7 and 8 would need to be considered in regard to the extent to
which, and how, this water might be allocated.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment
QUESTIONS