Staffing Industry Report Webinar December...

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Staffing Industry Report Webinar December 2010

© 2010 Crain Communications Inc.

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Barry Asin

President

Jon Osborne

VP, Research

Tony Gregoire

Sr. Research Analyst


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Staffing Industry Analysts Executive Forum 2011March 1-3 ~ Fontainebleau Resort, Miami Beach, FL

www.siexecutiveforum.com


Thank You to Our Sponsor…

Eric GilpinPresident Staffing and Recruiting Group


• Trends in economy & employment

• Staffing trends by segment & sector

• U.S. Staffing Industry Forecast

• Questions and answers

Agenda


Source: Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index

100

110

120

130

140

150

Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10

Leve

l of W

eekl

y Le

adin

g In

dex

ECRI gradually getting more optimistic


PM Manufacturing Index: still indicates expansion, but at a decelerating rate

Source: Purchasing Manager’s Manufacturing Index

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


Inde

x

Recession

PMI

EI


PM Non-Manufacturing Index: accelerating expansion

Source: Purchasing Manager’s Nonmanufacturing Index

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65


Inde

x

Recession

PMI

EI


Source: U.S. Department of Labor

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Nov-00 Nov-02 Nov-04 Nov-06 Nov-08 Nov-10 Initi

al C

laim

s fo

r U

nem

ploy

men

t (4-

Wee

k A

vera

ge)

Initial unemployment claims finally resume decline


U.S. GDP growth, actual & projected, 2007-2011

GDP Growth

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

3Q07

4Q07

1Q08

2Q08

3Q08

4Q08

1Q09

2Q09

3Q09

4Q09

1Q10

2Q10

3Q10

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

GD

P G

row

th

GDP growth Phi ladelphia Fed Conference Board


Trends in total employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Staffing Industry Analysts

Change in Nonfarm Employment Versus Year Earlier

-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%

Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10

Change in Nonfarm Employment Versus Previous Month

-800

-600-400

-200

0

200400

600


Thou

sand

s

+39,000


Trends in state & local govt employment


Monthly Change in State & Local Government Employment

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Nov

-06

Jan-

07

Mar

-07

May

-07

Jul-0

7

Sep-

07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-0

8

Sep-

08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

J ul- 1

0

Sep-

10

Nov

-10

Thou

sand

s


Trends in total private employment


Change in Private Employment Versus Year Earlier

-6%-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%


Change in Private Employment Versus Previous Month

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400


Thou

sand

s

+50,000


In November, which sectors gained/lost jobs?


-28

-13

-11

-9

-8

-5

1

3

5

10

11

14

30

40

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Retail tradeManufacturing

GovernmentFinancial activities

OtherConstructionInformation

Natural resources/miningWholesale trade

Transportation & util itiesLeisure and hospitality

Professional srs (excluding temp)Education and health

Temporary help

Thousands of Jobs


Best-performing U.S. metro employment markets



Worst-performing U.S. metro employment markets



Trends in hours worked


Average Weekly Hours of All Employees

33.2

33.4

33.6

33.8

34.0

34.2

34.4

34.6

34.8

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Hou

rs

Average Weekly Overtime of Production & Non-Supervisory Employees

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

May-08

Aug-08

Nov-08

Feb-09

May-09

Aug-09

Nov-09

Feb-10

May-10

Aug-10

Nov-10

Hou

rs


Seasonal peaks in hiring—who hires when


Child day care services

Clothing and clothing accessories stores

Educational services

Arts, entertainment, and recreation

Couriers and messengers

General merchandise stores

State/Local government education

Amusements, gambling, and recreation

Accounting and bookkeeping

Department stores

Educational services

Transit and ground transportation

Motor vehicles and parts

Scenic and sightseeing transportation

DecNovOctSepAugJul


Trend in total unemployment


Change in Number of Employed & Unemployed (Thousands), 3 Month Moving Avg

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Change in Number Unemployed Change in Number Employed

U.S. Total Unemployment RateRate up 17 basis points in Nov, to 9.82%

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%

10%11%

Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10


Trend in college-graduate unemployment


Change in Number of Employed & Unemployed (Thousands), 3 Month Moving Avg

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Change in Number Unemployed Change in Number Employed

U.S. College-Graduate Unemployment RateRate up 46 basis points in Nov, to 5.12%

0.0%0.5%

1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

5.0%5.5%

Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-09 Jul-10 Oct-10


Trends in hiring & firing


U.S. Private Sector Job Openings & Layoffs (Thousands)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thou

san

ds

Job Openings Layoffs






Agenda


Trends in staffing employment


Change in Temp Employment Versus Previous Month

-100

-50

0

50

100


Thou

sand

s

+39,500

Percent Change in Temp Employment Versus Year Earlier

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%



Temp Employment Penetration Rate

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

Nov-07

May-08

Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

Temp Employment Penetration Rate

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2003

2005

2007

2009



1.70% = 1997


Polling question:

When do you think temporary help penetration will get back to the 2.0% mark?

A) By the end of 2012B) By the end of 2013 C) By the end of 2014 D) By the end of 2015 E) Later than 2015 F) Never




Percent Change in Exec Search Internal Employment Vs. Year Earlier

-16%

-10%

-4%

2%

8%

14%

Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10

Percent Change in Direct Hire Internal Employment Versus Year Earlier

-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%

Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10




Layoffs as a Percent of Total Employment

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

Sep-07

Mar-08

Sep-08

Mar-09

Sep-09

Mar-10

Sep-10

Percent Change in PEO Covered Employees Versus Year Earlier

-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10


Revenue trends by segment & sector

↑ Widespread Improvement

↗ Mild Improvement

-- Flat ↘ Mild Deterioration

↓ Widepsread Deterioration

Source: Staffing Industry Monthly Pulse Survey

Apr to May

May to Jun

Jun to Jul

July to Aug

Aug to Sep

Sept to Oct

Oct to Nov

Nov to Dec

Dec to Jan

Jan10 to Feb

Feb to Mar

Mar to Apr

Apr to May

May to Jun

Jun to Jul

Jul to Aug

Aug to Sept

Sept to Oct

Temporary Staffing ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Temp-to-Hire -- -- ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑

Direct Hire -- -- -- -- ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

PEO ↑ ↗ -- -- -- --↘

↑ ↑ ↑ ↗ ↗ --

Retained Search↘ ↓ ↘ ↘

↗ --↘

-- ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ -- ↗ ↑

Outplacement -- --↘ ↘ ↘

--↘ ↓

-- --↓

Staffing sectors month-to-month sequential revenue trends


Revenue trends by segment & sector

↑ Widespread Improvement

↗ Mild Improvement

-- Flat ↘ Mild Deterioration

↓ Widepsread Deterioration


Apr to May

May to Jun

Jun to Jul

July to Aug

Aug to Sep

Sept to Oct

Oct to Nov

Nov to Dec

Dec to Jan

Jan10 to Feb

Feb to Mar

Mar to Apr

Apr to May

May to Jun

Jun to Jul

Jul to Aug

Aug to Sept

Sept to Oct

Industrial ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

IT ↗ ↑ ↑ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Office/Clerical ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Engineering ↑ ↗ ↗ -- ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Fin./Accounting -- ↗ -- -- ↑ ↑ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑

Allied/other ↘ ↗ ↑ -- ↗ ↗ ↗ -- ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Clincial/scientific ↗ -- ↗ -- ↗ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↑ -- ↗ ↑

Legal -- -- -- -- ↑ ↗ -- -- -- ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↗ -- ↑

Travel nurse ↘ ↘ -- ↘ -- ↗ -- ↘ ↑ -- ↑ ↘ ↗ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑

Locum tenens -- ↗ ↗ -- -- -- ↗ -- ↑ -- ↑ ↗ ↑

Per diem nurse -- ↓ ↗ -- ↗ ↗ -- ↘ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↗ ↗ ↑ ↘ ↑ ↑ ↑

Marketing/creative ↘ -- ↗ ↗ -- -- ↘ -- -- ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗

Temp staffing segments month-to-month sequential revenue trends


Which is greater challenge—selling or recruiting?


Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10 Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Selling

Recruiting


Staffing industry balance sheet

+ - •BLS reports temp gain of 39.5K, 14th month of increase

•Weak employment report, just 39K jobs

•Selling/recruiting difficulty ratio improving over last nine months

•Unemployment up to 9.8%, likely to stay high for forseeable future

•Pulse: Most staffing firms still reporting sequential improvement

•Economic indicators trending better

•Overtime hours notch up--highest in two and a half years






Agenda


Projected Revenue Growth in 2010

12/2009 Forecast

7%

5%

Current Forecast

11%

10%

Temporary Staffing

Total Staffing Industry


Projected Revenue Growth in 2010 - Industrial

12/2009 Forecast

15%

Current Forecast

25%


Projected Revenue Growth in 2010 – Office/Clerical

12/2009 Forecast

4%

Current Forecast

8%


Projected Revenue Growth in 2010 – IT

12/2009 Forecast

8%

Current Forecast

10%


Projected Revenue Growth in 2010 – Healthcare

12/2009 Forecast

-1%

Current Forecast

-8%


The staffing industry and GDP

Staffing Industry Revenue Growth (Excluding PEO/Outplacement)

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

GDP growth

Staf

fing

grow

th


The staffing industry and GDP

U.S. Staffing Industry Revenue - Estimated and Projected

Industry Segment 2008 (E) 2009 (E) 2010 (P) 2011 (P) 2012 (P)Tempoary Staffing ($B) 94.5 71.2 78.8 88.0 95.7Year-over-year -4% -25% 11% 12% 9%Place & Search ($B) 19.9 9.8 11.7 13.3 14.6Year-over-year -12% -51% 20% 13% 10%PEO ($B) 10.1 9.6 10.1 10.8 11.8Year-over-year 2% -5% 5% 7% 9%Outplacement ($B) 1.2 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.0Year-over-year 16% 40% -35% -10% 0%Total Staffing ($B) 125.7 92.3 101.7 113.1 123.1Year-over-year -5% -27% 10% 11% 9%


Industrial staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

-7%

-25%

25%

15%

7%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Off/clerical staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

-9%

-24%

8%

13%

8%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


IT staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

-4%

-20%

10%12% 12%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Healthcare staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

1%

-28%

-8%

4%

9%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Detailed healthcare staffing forecast

Healthcare Staffing y/y Revenue Growth & Market Size(% change) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Travel nursing 1.5% -50% -25% 7% 15%Per diem nursing -8.0% -30% -6% 3% 6%Locum tenens 13.5% -1% -4% 3% 7%Allied 7.0% -25% -4% 4% 10%Total Healthcare 1.0% -28% -8% 4% 9%

($Billions) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Travel nursing 2.4 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1Per diem nursing 3.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.7Locum tenens 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9Allied 3.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.8Total Healthcare 11.4 8.2 7.6 7.9 8.5Source: Staffing Industry Analysts


Finance/acc staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

-7%

-29%

4%

8% 8%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Engineering staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

2%

-23%

10% 11%

8%

2008A 2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Legal, clin/sci, marketing/creative trend & forecast

-40%

5%

13% 11%

-24%

4%7%

11%

-22%

5%9% 7%

2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P

Legal Clinical/Scientific Marketing/Creative


Place/search staffing: y/y growth, actual & projected

-51%

20%

13% 13%

2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


PEO: y/y growth, actual & projected

-5%

5%

7%

9%

2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P


Outplacement: y/y growth, actual & projected

40%

-35%

-10%

0%

2009A 2010P 2011P 2012P






Agenda


Where to find latest research: staffingindustry.com


Staffing Industry Monthly Pulse Survey

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