STABILIZE NAIRA NATIONAL SECURITY FOREIGN...

170PROMISESACCOUNTABILITYASSETS DECLARATION

FIGHT CORRUPTIONDEVOLVE POWER TO STATES

STABILIZE NAIRANATIONAL SECURITY

ANALYSING

POLICE REFORMSECONOMYSPORTSICT

FOREIGN RELATIONS

JOB CREATION

BUHARI’S

POWERINFRASTRUCTURE

ENFORCE FOI

REDUCE COST OF GOVERNANCEREVIVE COAL INDUSTRY

N300BILLION REGIONAL GROWTH FUNDSMALL BUSINESS LOAN GUARANTEE SCHEME

DEVELOP OIL & GAS SECTORGROW EDUCATION SECTOR

DEVELOP HEALTH CARE

DISCLOSE CONTRACTS ABOVE N100M

DESIGNED BY:

www.yourbudgit.com

ABOUT SBM INTELLIGENCE

Founded in 2012, SBM Intelligence, an arm of SB Morgen, is an organisation devoted to the collection and analysis of information. We offer comprehensive analysis for, and support to governments, businesses and NGOs.

SBM Intelligence runs a Nigeria-wide network of contacts and associates. In 2015, SBM Intelligence became a partner to Stratfor, one of the leading private intelligence agencies in the world.

[email protected]@sbmintelligenceFacebook.com/sbmintel

DISCLAIMER

The data contained in this report is only up-to-date as at Wednesday, 25 May, 2016. Some of it is subject to change during the natural course of events. SB Morgen cannot accept liability in respect of any errors or omissions that may follow such events that may invalidate data contained herein.

Our researchers employed methods such as one-on-one interviews, desk research and polling to collate the available data. Our editors sifted through the data and prepared the report, using various proprietary tools to fact-check and copy edit the information gathered.

All forecasts were built using data from a variety of sources. A baseline of accurate and comprehensive historic data is collected from respondents and publicly-available information, including from regulators, trade associations, research partners, newspapers and government agencies.

1

In the build-up to the 2015 elections, both the APC and PDP candidates, through their parties' campaign machineries, in documented manifestos as well as on the campaign trail, made promises to the Nigerian people.

These promises formed the basis upon which Nigerians made their choices at the ballots in the general elections. On May 29, 2015, Muhammadu Buhari of the APC was sworn in as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, having beaten the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan. It was, in the first time in Nigerian history that power had moved to the opposition through peaceful means. Many viewed this as a watershed moment, and as an opportunity to recalibrate Nigeria.

SBM Intelligence has curated the promises made by President Muhammadu Buhari's campaign, to make a purposeful attempt at measuring the government's performance against two benchmarks: actual achievement against electioneering promises and the country's socioeconomic performance against that of its peers.

The first benchmark takes into consideration the timeframe whilst analysing the government's achievements.

The second benchmark, which measures the government's performance against those of its peers (in this case 2 South American countries facing similar economic difficulties as Nigeria), is important as the country cannot afford to lag behind others on developmental indices which its creditors, benefactors and trade partners use to judge it, after all the President has placed much importance on interfacing with external partners during his first 12 months in office.

SBM produced a similar performance report when the Buhari administration reached the hundred day milestone in office and this report builds on that earlier one significantly. The purpose of this is to provide the Nigerian people, and other interested observers, with requisite empirical information to judge the government by.

INTRODUCTION

SBM Intelligence spoke with different people across different fields in Nigeria to put this report together. Each of these respondents cut across party lines as well as the public and private sector. The 170 curated promises of the Buhari administration were divided in 24 categories and were circulated to these experts and they were required to fill feedback using the following categorization:

METHODOLOGY

CATEGORIZATION MEANING

All actions that need to be taken to fulfil this promise have been completed and the quantum of promised results possible as at year 1 have been achieved.DONE

Some actions have been taken towards fulfilling this promise. However, these actions have either not been completed or the quantum of promised results as at year 1 have not been achieved.NOT DONE

2

The respondents were required to provide explanations and corroborating evidence for the positions taken on each promise. SBM Intelligence then collated these and conducted desk research to arrive at a final consensus position on each promise.Based on the above, a final table collating the score for each promise category was developed and the following formula applied to determine the final percentage achievement of the government for each category.

Explanation – We weighted count ongoing by 25% to reflect the different weights a completed promise carries over an ongoing promise. We have also included a 25% of negative count deteriorated to include the effect that such situations have on the performance of government and quality of lives of Nigerians.

Little or no action has been taken towards fulfilling this promise. The quantum of promised results achieved as at year 1 is negligible.

ONGOING

Action have not been taken for this promise and/or actions taken have only resulted in the situation becoming significantly worse than as at May 29, 2015.DETERIORATED

((Count Done) + (Count Ongoing * 25%) – (Count Deteriorated * 25%))

Total Number of Promises in Category

FORMULA APPLIED:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

3

“Tough times will soon be over” President Buhari declared during his 2016 Workers Day address to Nigerians. These are tough times indeed for Africa's largest economy.

A quick scan through key economic indicators as highlighted in the table below show steep declines in GDP growth, oil production and revenues over the past 12 months, whereas inflation rates have risen by a whopping 4.5% in the same time period.

The country's over-dependence on oil has been chastised for decades and now with oil prices declining the nation cannot generate enough income to invest in new oil fields and other critical areas of the economy.

Unfortunately, the bad news does not end with the state of the economy. Nigeria is currently suffering serious socio-political challenges with the government constantly firefighting crisis situations in various corners of the country's map.

Whilst President Buhari has been quick to engage key issues like corruption and the Boko Haram insurgency, other areas have been left to spiral out of control – from farmer-herdsmen clashes in the Middle-belt states, and Niger Delta militants attacks in the oil producing states and tomato crops annihilation by disease in the core Northern states.

Clearly, Nigeria cannot afford the same dismal performance in the next 12 months.

MAY-16 MAY-15 VARIANCE

INFLATION 13.70%

-0.37%

197.00

350.00

27.1

1.4

409.3

9.20%

3.96%

197.00

220.50

29.6

1.65

281.5

4.50%

3.59%

-

129.50

(2.5)

(0.25)

127.80

GDP Growth Rate

NGN/USD Exchange Rate (Official)

NGN/USD Exchange Rate (Parallel)

Foreign Reserves ($bn)

Oil Production (Mb/day)

FAAC (Nbn)

4

%

ACHIEVEDCATEGORY DONE ONGOING

NOT

DONE DETERIORATED

OBTAINABLE

SCORE

ACCOUNTABILITY IN PUBLIC SERVICE

ANTI CORRUPTION

COST OF GOVERNANCE

CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT/LEGISLATIVE CHANGES

NATIONAL SECURITY

POLICE REFORMS

CONFLICT MANAGEMENT & RESOLUTION

FOREIGN RELATIONS

ECONOMY

JOB CREATION/ HOUSING/ SOCIAL WELFARE

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT

SPORTS

ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY

ICT

GENDER EQUALITY & WOMEN EMPOWERMENT

ENVIRONMENT

NIGER DELTA

TOTAL

AGRICULTURE

OIL AND GAS

EDUCATION

HEALTHCARE

POWER

INFRASTRUCTURE

SMALL BUSINESSES/ENTERPRENEURSHIP

17%

170PROMISES

TOP 3 SECTORS WITH COMPLETED PROMISES

NATIONAL SECURITY

COMPLETED

ANTICORRUPTION

OF PROMISES

FULFILLED

4% 96%NOT DONE, DETERIORATED

OR ONGOING

44%COMPLETED

THE SCORECARD – SUMMARY BY CATEGORY

67%FOREIGN RELATIONS

COMPLETED

0 0 110 11 0%

0 0 32 1 17%

0 0 20 2 0%

0 1 40 3 -6%

3 0 82 3 44%

0 0 51 4 5%

0 0 31 2 8%

2 0 30 1 67%

0 4 201 15 -4%

0 0 50 5 0%

0 2 51 2 -5%

0 0 171 16 1%

0 2 80 6 -6%

0 0 60 6 0%

0 0 103 7 8%

0

0 0 12

5

4

2

4

6

7

2

0 00

0 00

0 00

0 00

1

1 13 -2%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

8%

4%

4%

5

4

2

4

7

7

3

17010

1

15 140

0

0 0

0 0

0 0

5

0 151 14 2%

5

From the above, it is evident that the government has done very well in the following areas:

· Foreign Relations· National Security

These are evident in the manner in which President Buhari has galvanized the international community to rally behind Nigeria in the fight against Boko Haram as well as various engagements with world leaders in the BRICS, G7, Lake Chad Basin and Gulf of Guinea on anti-corruption and security.

ANALYSIS

On National security, Boko Haram has been

largely defeated and reduced to suicide

bombing attacks, away from when they took

on whole army formations in pitched battles.

However, the failures in dealing with the fast

spreading pastoralist attacks, attacks on the

Shi'a organization in Zaria as well as growing

militancy in the Niger Delta are minuses in

the National Security category.

On many important categories that directly affect the Nigerian people the Buhari led administration has performed rather poorly, and in some cases abysmally. In some areas, things appear to have largely deteriorated since he took office. These include:

Constitutional Amendment/

Legislative Framework

POWER HEALTHCARE

+

ECONOMYJOB CREATION/HOUSING/

SOCIAL WELFARE

6

Nigeria's economic growth over the last five years has been driven by growth in agriculture, oil & gas, telecommunications, financial services and real estate. The 2014 statistical "rebasing" exercise which propelled Nigeria to a $500Billion+ economy also slowed its growth numbers. Many sectors have remained vulnerable to shocks, especially the financial services sector. With economic growth slowing globally, the crash of crude prices and production volumes and the government policy actions or inactions have left the Nigerian economy in tatters. That drop in government revenues has put the country in a precarious position where it cannot adequately fund its own budget and at the same time invest in power & road infrastructure, healthcare and education nor can the government spend on social welfare programs which was promised during the election campaign.

The most recent figures released by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.36% in the first quarter of 2016 from Q4, 2015. Both the oil and non-oil sectors of the economy experienced negative growth during the quarter, whereas, in 2015, the non-oil sector recorded positive growth rates all through. Most worrying is the fact that Agriculture which accounts for 21% of Nigeria's GDP has finally stopped growing as well.

ANALYSIS

0.36% 21%

BUILDING

Gross Domestic Product fell by

Agriculture which accounts for

in Q1 2016 from Q4 2015

has finally stopped growing

Asides improvement of the economy, three of the most important drivers of the Buhari's electioneering campaign were Anti-Corruption, Accountability in Public Service and Reduction of Cost of Governance. On the last two of these, there was zero performance scores recorded measured against the electoral promises. Even on the crucial promise of Anti-Corruption, a low 17% performance score was recorded when measured against the promises. This was because most of the promises required institutional fixes and engagements with the National Assembly, and there was no action on these.

7

Two areas where the Buhari administration has perhaps faced its greatest criticism are:

Whilst the administration's stance on the former has begun to evolve, it remains adamant on defending the value of the naira at almost any cost. Also evolving is the administration’s stance on electricity subsidies. As the government looked to sort the quagmire in the power sector left by previous administrations, it quickly revised the electricity tariffs upwards and allowed the electricity distribution companies cut-off long term debtors, who include government agencies and institutions.

PETROL

AVAILABILITY

& SUBSIDY

FOREIGN

EXCHANGE$

Venezuela which is a socialist nation which was spending in excess of USD15 billion annually of fuel subsidies this year raised petrol prices for the first time in 20 years. Venezuela's economy has been pushed to the brink by the collapse due to the precipitous fall in oil price, which accounts for about 95% of the country's export revenues (according to the BBC). Just like Nigeria, foreign airlines in both Argentina and Venezuela have stopped accepting payment for tickets in local currencies.

When we compare Nigeria to the South

American countries of Argentina and

Venezuela on these issues, we see that for

Argentina which was facing spiking

inflation due to long term government

spending on electricity and fuel

subsidies had to cut those subsidies.

ANALYSIS

8

ECONOMY

GDP Growth rate will contract again by the second quarter of 2016 as consumer demand wanes and company revenues decline.

PREDICTIONS

The FG will be forced to devalue the naira in the third quarter of the year to reflect current realities. However, the FG may want to retain a two tier exchange rate. This will be buoyed by a rebound in oil prices helping government increase revenues, providing the security challenges are contained. This will however create room for arbitrage, uncertainty and will continue to negatively affect manufacturing and industry. Oil volumes will remain low and probably drop further. If the approach President Buhari took with the naira is anything to go by, and his current stance continues, militant activity will only increase until it cripples the oil production, forcing him to reluctantly change approach. We believe that the region will take at least 6 months to pacify. Sadly,

The effect of years of pastoralist

violence in the Middle Belt leading

to greatly reduced domestic food

production coupled with FX

unavailability to import will lead

to scarcity of key food items.

and probably stabilize till about

the end of the year.

Inflation rate will spike to about

15-16% The reduced production of oil due to Niger Delta militant activity will affect the NNPC's ability to meet its obligations in crude swap deals. This, coupled with the non-resolution of the FX issue as well as well as non-removal of subsidy will lead to even more excruciating fuel scarcity in the months to come.

Nigeria might be unable to raise the foreign loans to fund its budget deficit and this will significantly affect budget performance especially as tax income is projected to fall short of government projections.

9

a subsequent increase in production will not translate to increased revenue for Nigeria as the country would have lost market share to other countries who have continued to ramp up production. The PIB will not be passed this year as various interest groups bicker over its contents.

From our interviews with industry experts, power supply from hydro is projected to increase by 300 or so MW in Q3.

Foreign Portfolio Investment may increase gradually following a devaluation of the naira, and the full implementation of the budget. This will however not reach optimal levels as most foreign investors believe the appropriate pricing mechanism for the Naira is to float the currency, which is unlikely to happen following the MPC's recent announcement of a flexible exchange rate in the near future.

PREDICTIONS

However as the economy has almost definitely contracted in Q2, more jobs will be lost, taking job losses to about 1.2 million by the end of Q2, an acceleration from Q1's 500,000 job losses.

The unemployment rate will stabilize by Q4 as effects of the budget starts to take hold. There will likely be new tax reforms by Q4 with a mixture of tax increases (particularly VAT) and incentives for smaller businesses to create jobs. The government will borrow more to augment the budget taking our total external debt from $10.7 billion to about $12 billion and local debt from

$10.7bn

2015

external debt$12bn

2016

external debt

1.2mjobs will be lost in Q2

10

N8.8 trillion about N10 trillion. The cost of this borrowing will be significantly higher than in the last couple of years due to Nigeria's removal from key emerging market indices such as the JP Morgan Emerging Market Index.

POLITICAL

In the next year, we may see a more divided Nigeria if President Buhari does not make national reconciliation his priority. Utterances by the president in the first year in office as well as his reaction to issues have not done well to dispel feelings of marginalization by many sections of the Nigerian state.

In the coming year, more people will be charged for corruption. We may get a couple of convictions, but the big guys with the deep pockets will either avoid jail or drag their cases much longer, putting into stark relief the failure to set up the special anti-corruption courts. The President will continue to "look the other way" when it comes to calls to prosecute members of his party

PREDICTIONS

AS AT 2015 AS AT 2016

N8.8tnlocal debt

N10tnlocal debt

The President's belligerent approach to the resurgent militancy in the Niger Delta will escalate things. Since the militants have proved to have better knowledge of the terrain than the Nigerian military, the guerrilla style of the militants will makes it tougher for the army to achieve their objectives, and in frustration, the military may vent their anger on innocent people in the region just as happened in the village of Odi in 1999.

11

accused of corruption. However, if the division between the ACN and CPC caucuses of the APC continues, we may see one or two associates of party leader, Bola Tinubu being charged to court.

The two gubernatorial elections scheduled for this year are critical to both main political parties. INEC has held a slew of elections in the last one year where results have either been inconclusive or mired in controversy. The PDP is yet to get its act together on a national level. However, the party will put up a strong challenge in the gubernatorial elections and the outcomes will go a long way in determining if the APC alliance, already frayed, will continue to hold fast.

The conclusion of the battle for the senate will also be decisive. It is unlikely that Bukola Saraki will be senate president by the second anniversary of the Buhari administration. Precedence from the Obasanjo days has been that if a senate president is removed, rather than the deputy senate president taking over, a new senate president from the deposed senate president's zone is elected. However, with pending inconclusive elections from Rivers State, PDP might decline following this precedence and support the current deputy senate president to emerge as Saraki's successor if he is deposed. We do not expect most of the key legislation that will drive the APC promises to be passed this year due to the drama at the Senate.

PREDICTIONS

We expect a cabinet shake-up as

well as a shake-up of close aides of

the president as the emerging

political realities predicated on the

fraying of the seams of the APC

alliance and the performance of

some of these aides render their

positions untenable.

12

SECURITY

The Nigerian military will further consolidate its defeat of Boko Haram in the North East and more displaced people will return home. The North East will slowly return to normalcy. However, Boko Haram will still continue to adopt a dispersed hit and run strategy and employ suicide bombings in an attempt to spread terror. The border with the Niger Republic region of Diffa will be a critical zone to secure in consolidating this victory

The pastoralist violence will escalate, as communities resort to arming themselves. Reprisals and counter-reprisals will escalate and the Nigerian government will finally be forced into acting. The approach it takes will determine whether the situation will be defused or if it will spiral into low intensity warfare

In the Niger Delta, attacks are expected to increase, both in intensity and in impact. It is also predicted that the government will attempt to deal with this through decisive military force. However, we expect that this will only rally more in the Niger Delta to the militant side and a non-military solution will be explored.

With increased scarcity of essential items, job losses and a contracting economy, there is a high potential that social unrest will begin to flare up in the most affected sections of the country.

CONCLUSION

SBM Intel believes this the points raised in this report can serve as a useful feedback to the government and can inspire policy makers to make relevant adjustment and allocate necessary resources towards tackling areas of serious concern.

If the government is content for Nigeria to continuously be mentioned in the same breath as Cristina Kirchner's Argentina and Venezuela then they may not like the feedback that will be given by Nigerians at the polls in May 2019.

PREDICTIONS

13

APPENDIX: BREAKDOWN OF PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI’S PROMISES BY SECTOR

PROMISE COMMENTS

ACCOUNTABILITY

IN PUBLIC

SERVICE

Publicly Declare Assets and Encourage all appointees to publicly declare assets a precondition to taking up appointments

After foot dragging on the issue for months, PMB released details of his asset declaration to the CCB in a statement. A public release of his CCB forms for independent scrutiny has not occurred. His appointees have largely failed to declare their assets.

NOT DONE

1

Inaugurate National Council on Procurement as Stipulated in the Procurement Act and stop Federal Executive Council from contract awards to refocus on policy making

Controversy has trailed the performance of the BPP since its inception in 2007. This promise was to give the agency a clearer direction & more clout. From available data and sources, the NCPP has not been constituted.NOT DONE

2

Review and Implement NEITI Audit Report including those on re-mediation and remittances

Despite numerous public pronouncements expressing a comitment to clean up the NNPC, a review of the NEITI audit report, a crucial first step has not been carried out.NOT DONE

3

Amend constitution to require Local Governments to publish their meeting minutes /services performance data and details of spending over 10Million Naira

This has not come up for debate in the APC-led National Assembly till date.

NOT DONE

4

Amend constitution to remove immunity from prosecution of elected officers in criminal cases

This has not been considered by the legislature.

NOT DONE

5

Fully enforce FOI so that government held datasets can be requested and used by the public and such datasets are published regularly

The FOI Act was signed into law by the last administration but implementation has been piecemeal at best. The current administration has not made a public pronouncement with respect to its FOI policy. The refusal to publish budget details is a clear indication of government's position.

NOT DONE

6

14


ACCOUNTABILITY

IN PUBLIC

SERVICE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure all MDAs regularly comply with accountability requirements to Nigerians through the NASS

The NASS rather exhaustively excised every aspect of PMB's first budget and weaned out substantial portions of estimates delivered by MDAs. While commendable in principle, the political impasse the inevitable Executive/NASS clash spun was avoidable. Better coordination is required for Budget 2017.

NOT DONE

7

Fully disclose in media outlets government contracts of over 100Million Naira prior to award and at regular intervals during implementation

It is unclear if any government contractual disclosure has been made pursuant to this promise. This may be due to the late passage of the budget which is only just being implemented by the Executive and its organs.NOT DONE

8

Attract the best and brightest Nigerians to public service and politics through aggressive recruitment of academics and professionals within and outside Nigeria

The jury is still out on this promise. For one, the recrutiment of the likes of Kemi Adeosun, Amina Mohammed & Okechukwu Enelamah suggests that this may be part of PMB's recruitment policy. However, the presence of veteran political hands like Ngige, Amaechi & Udoma contradicts the spirit of this pledge as well as Shittu and Adamu who have proven to not be up to the task

NOT DONE

9

Review and regulate import duty waivers to promote transparency and accountability

The only recorded public declaration on this pledge was at the National Economic Council retreat in March. It is not clear if the promised review of the much criticised import duty waiver policy is underway.

NOT DONE

10

Work with NASS to enact Whistle-blower Act The VP appealed to CSOs to apply pressure on NASS to pass the WBA. However the government is yet to move on this

NOT DONE

11

ONGOING DETERIORATEDNOT DONEDONEPROMISES

11 110 0 0SECTOR

RATING


3 10 2 0SECTOR

RATING

Reform and strengthen justice system for efficient administration and dispensation of justice with the creation of special courts for accelerated hearing of corruption, drug trafficking, terrorism and other nationally important cases

The Administration of Criminal Justice Act, bequeated to the current administration last year, has been hailed as a maverick and innovative piece of legis lat ion . Nevertheless , the current administration has not accelerated the creation of specialised courts.

2

15


PROMISE COMMENTS

ANTICORRUPTION

Work with NASS to guarantee institutional autonomy for EFCC and ICPC including financial and prosecutorial independence and security of tenure of officials

A House of Representatives bill in January to restructure the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, providing the establishment of witness protection unit and detention unit as well as establishing an Operations Review Committee to perform oversight functions has passed the second reading stage. While there has been no movement yet on the ICPC front, the question of security of tenure for anti-corruption officials has not been addressed.

ONGOING

1

Present a National Anti-Corruption Strategy PMB told the anti-corruption summit that his government had "developed a national anti-corruption strategy document that will guide our policies in the next three years, and possibly beyond.” This strategy has not been publicly presented. However, he presented a detailed document at the London Anti-Corruption summit

ONGOING

3

NOT DONE


20 02 0SECTOR

RATING

16


COST OF

GOVERNANCE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure all political office holders earn only salaries and emoluments as determined by the RMFAC

The RMAFC commenced a review of the salaries and allowances of political office holders in June 2015. It was to last till September. Despite this, political office holders are still known to derive monetary c o m p e n s a t i o n i n d e p e n d e n t o f R M A F C recommendations. A case in point is the recent upvote in the car allowances of federal lawmakers.

NOT DONE

1

Work with NASS and Judiciary to cut down cost of governance

According to civil socitey watchdog BudgIT, the budget's share of recurrent expenditure stood at N2.65tn. This is in addition to N351.4bn in statutory transfers to such agencies like INEC, NASS and the NJC. This is much higher than the capital expenditure portion of the budget (N1.59tn), thus contributing to a N2.2tn deficit.

NOT DONE

2


4 3 10 0SECTOR

RATING

17


PROMISE COMMENTS

CONSTITUTIONAL AMMENDMENT/LEGISLATIVE CHANGES

Initiate action to amend Nigeria's constitution with a view to devolving powers, duties and responsibilities to states to entrench true federalism

Two efforts have been made by NASS to send constitutional amendments to PMB in October 2015 and March 2016. However, it is not clear if the Legislature has been successful in this regard. Furthermore, it must be noted that the amendments in question were those passed by the 7th NASS but errors and differences in procedure prevented their being signed into law by the last President.

NOT DONE

1

Consult and amend the constitution to enable states and Local Governments create city, local government and state policing systems based on resources available at each level to address peculiar needs of each society

There is still little political will to give local governments increased autonomy and introduce state police forces.

2

Amend the Constitution and Land Use Act to create freehold/leasehold interests in land along with matching grants for states to create a nationwide electronic land title register on a state by state basis

Strengthen INEC to reduce and if possible eliminate electoral malpractice from Nigeria's political life

Nothing has been done in regard to amending the LUA. It should be noted that any effort at amendment would require a commensurate constitutional amendment as the basic law of the land regards the LUA as an integral part of itself, underscoring the difficulty of any attempt at updating our land laws.

The AGF in April announced that he has been consultation with NASS and the judiciary towards enacting significant electoral reform.

NOT DONE

DETERIORATED

3

4

NOT DONE


NATIONAL SECURITY

PROMISE COMMENTS

Maintain territorial integrity of Nigeria and ensure Chibok girls are rescued and reunited with their families

The military has recovered significant portions of Nigeria's territory lost to a five-year Boko Haram insurgency. However, sporadic bomb and gun attacks by the Islamist group persist. In a related development, two of the 276 Chibok girls abducted by the group have reportedly been released in recent days.

ONGOING

1

Deliver a Marshall Plan on insurgency, terrorism, ethnic and religious violence, kidnapping, rural banditry

The Presidential committee on North East Interventions presented a 'Marshall Plan for the North East' in October 2015. However, a national plan for tackling rising insecurity hasn't been instituted. Particular failure to address the escalating pastoralist violence against farmers has is an indictment on the administration.

ONGOING

2

Provide armed forces and other security personnel and their families with state-guaranteed life insurance and other welfare packages.

Give due recognition to acts of heroism and valour in service to the nation.

Work closely with governors of states affected by insurgency, and forge closer diplomatic ties with leaders of countries in the region and around the world to coordinate efforts to combat insurgency, oil theft piracy and criminality.

The government has made verbal commitments to improving the welfare of military personnel on the frontline of tackling the Boko Haram insurgency. Whether this is part of a wider push to improve the welfare of military families is unclear.

This has not been done. A case in point is the fact that the government is yet to acknowledge a hero like Chimda Hedima.

Almost from the beginning of his tenure, PMB reached out to Nigeria's neighbours, helped formed a joint task force aimed at fighting Boko Haram and secured international buy-in from the US, UK, France and the EU among others.

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

DONE

3

4

5

18

NATIONAL SECURITY

Establish a properly trained and equipped Federal Anti-Terrorism Multi-Agency Task Force to destroy Boko Haram.

Has traveled widely to ensure a proper kick off for the MNJTF. This is a first step to ensure the defeat of Boko Haram. Secured equipment purchasing and training offers from the US.

7

Introduce an immediate pay rise and improved conditions for all five security services.

There's no indication that this pledge has been fulfilled. Reports of delayed payments have also been received.

NOT DONE

8

DONE


8 2 03 3SECTOR

RATING

19


PROMISE COMMENTS

Push for more robust support for Security and Economic Stability of West Africa, special relationship with South Africa and its sub-region, UK, USA, Canada, EU, Asia and Middle East.

As part of a robust push to secure Nigeria's important diplomatic relations, PMB has visited all the major global powers as well as hosted the South African President as well as the heads of West African nations in an international summit in Abuja. He also sent a mediation delegation to Burkina Faso in the wake of that nation's failed coup in 2015.

DONE

6

POLICE REFORMS


20

PROMISE COMMENTS

Activate regular meetings of National Police Council to ensure discharge of its true constitutional roles in a transparent and accountable way

Apart from the high profile confirmation of the current Inspector-General of Police, it is not clear if the NPC, of which PMB is its head, meets regularly.

NOT DONE

1

Urgently address capacity building mechanisms of law enforcement agents in terms of quality and quantity as it is critical to safeguarding life and properties

A few 'capacity building' workshops have been organised for law enforcement officers. It should be noted that this is fairly typical practice in the federal civil service. However, it is not immediately clear if there has been an improvement in the quality of arms, ammunitions and other crime fighting material.

NOT DONE

2

Establish a well-trained, adequately equipped and goal driven serious crime squad to combat insurgencies, kidnapping, armed robbery, ethno-religious and communal clashes

With the rising spate of communal clashes and settler/herdsmen violence in an area roughly straddling the Niger-Benue river valley (often referred to as the Middle Belt) , it is apparent that the FG and law enforcement are struggling to cope with a growing security challenge.NOT DONE

3

Work with NASS to set and revise when needed the boundaries of operations of the Federal, State and Local Govt. policing units through new Criminal Justice Legislation to replace the existing Criminal Code, Penal Code and Police Act

There has been no movement on this pledge.

NOT DONE

4

Employ at least an extra 100,000 Police Officers There is an on-going police requirement process. The NPF has not indicated that it will reach this target during this exercise. However, it can be inferred from the nation's current economic situation that it will be difficult to fulfill this pledge, at least in the near term.

ONGOING

5


5 40 1 0SECTOR

RATING

Initiate policies to ensure Nigerians are free to live and work in any part of the country by removing state of origin, tribe, ethnic and religious affiliations from documentation requirements in our identification and replace with States of Residence and fashion out minimum qualification for obtaining such state of residency nationwide.

There has been no movement on this pledge. Not seen or read a bill sent to the NASS to amend the constitution in this regard. The Constitution actually guarantees this, but the problem is enforcement

2

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Bring permanent peace and solutions to insurgency issues in the NE and ND and other conflict prone areas

The government has struggled to bring peace to these restive regions. Instead, in the ND, there are clear indications that a bad situation may become worse in the short term. Renewed attacks on oil installations led to Nigeria's crude oil output reaching a 20-year low in May 2016.

ONGOING

3

CONFLICT MANAGEMENT & RESOLUTION


3 2 00 1SECTOR

RATING

21


PROMISE COMMENTS

Establish a conflict resolution commission to help prevent, mitigate and resolve civil conflicts within the polity.


1

FOREIGN RELATIONS


22

PROMISE COMMENTS

Make Regional Integration a priority within ECOWAS including free trade with a view to ensuring a common tariff/currency are in use by the end of PMB's term in office under Nigeria's guidance and leadership.

There has been no deliberate policy by the administration to foster ECOWAS integration

NOT DONE

1

Maintain strong, close and frank relationship within the Gulf of Guinea, Commonwealth, South Africa and the rest of the world

VP has visited quite a number of African countries, the President has visited South Africa, the G7 and the US(the President even visited Equitorial Guinea so yes the administration takes this seriously)

DONE

DONE

2

Establish special relationships with BRIC nations and other strategic partners around the world

As part of a robust push to secure Nigeria's important diplomatic relations, PMB has visited China, as well as pursuing renewed diplomatic efforts with Russia (energy policy), India (energy policy and trade) and Brazil (trade, energy policy and cultural exchanges).

3


3 12 0 0SECTOR

RATING

Restore financial confidence in citizens and around the world by putting in place a more robust monitoring supervising and regulating of financial institutions

His stance on financial issues and the economy have not earned the confidence of citizens and the international investor community especially around management of the FX issue

2

DETERIORATED

Make our economy one of the fastest growing in the world with real GDP growth averaging 10-12% annually

In fiscal year 2015, Nigeria posted its slowest economic growth since the return to democratic rule in 1999. Negative GDP growth of -0.36% for Q1 2016 and projected to be negative for Q2, hence Nigeria will officially enter a recession

3

DETERIORATED

Embark on Export and Product Diversification including investment in infrastructure , promote manufacturing and Agro-based industries; and promote and expand sub-regional trade in ECOWAS and AU

Due to the delay in the passing of Budget 2016, movement on this pledge has been slow in materialising.

4

NOT DONE

Make IT, Manufacturing, Agriculture and Entertainment key drivers of our economy and review present reward system which is based on certification to that based on skills, competencies and performance

No only has not much been done, moves like MOPICON and the Drone Act will have negative impact on these fields

5

NOT DONE

DETERIORATED

PROMISE COMMENTS

Maintain sound micro and macro-economic policy and run an efficient government and preserve the independence of the CBN

One of the administration's most significant missteps, the pursuit of a strong (but artificially propped) naira policy amid loud calls for a devaluation has led to a plunge in the nation's FX reserves, a spike in FX values at the parallel markets, shortages and scarcities of essential commodities and the clearest indication yet that economic policy is not run by the CBN but dictated by Aso Rock. This has led to Nigeria's delisting by major exchange indices providers like MSCI and record outflows in Nigeria-located and naira denominated assets.

1

ECONOMY

23


Integrate informal economy into the mainstream and prioritize the full implementation of the National Identification Scheme to generate relevant data

There has been precious little movement on this pledge.

7

NOT DONE

Encourage local manufacturers by imposing higher taxation on importers

There has been little movement on this pledge.

8

NOT DONE

Revive abandoned coal industry in the SE to generate electricity for the region

Revive Ajaokuta Steel Company

The MoP has made public pronouncements in this regard but no official policy statement has been published or implemented.

There have been public indicators of interest but no executive or legislative action on this pledge.

9

11

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Revive textile industry that has been rendered dormant because of inappropriate economic policies

Reinvigorate the solid mineral sector by revamping aged mining legislation and attract new investment



10

12

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Balance Nigeria's economy across regions by creating Regional Economic Development Agencies to act as sub-regional hubs in order to promote healthy competitiveness

See Pledge 4 in this section. In addition, the government has not announced the creation of the REDAs.

6

ECONOMY


24

Establish domestic demand and undertake public works programmes to achieve this goal


14

NOT DONE

Put in place 300Billion Naira Regional Growth Fund with an average of 50Billion Naira per region to be managed by REDAs to encourage private sector enterprise and support places currently reliant on only public sector to migrate to private sector

The delays in the budget might have affected this. The Finance Minister made a 360Billion Naira injection fund announcement. However, remains to be seen if the signed budget captures this

15

NOT DONE

Present annual report on the state of the economy to the NASS and the Nigerian People

The President is expected to give a major speech on Nigeria's political and economic progress on May 29.

16

NOT DONE

Stabilize the Fallen Naira The naira has shifted little from a band of N197-199, indicating stability but this is illusory as it is being artificially propped. The management of the exchange rate where there is arbitrage of nearly 90% between official rates and parallel market rates is one of the policy failures of this government

17

DETERIORATED

ONGOING

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure the preparation of MTEF and annual budget will be guided by job creation projections

This was highlighted during the drafting process of Budget 2016 but the political imbroglio that the controversies emanating from the budget spun took some shine from the positive aspects of its creation.

13

ECONOMY

25


Negotiate rule-based oil revenue management process and adopt a rule based excess crude account management process which will entail a fixed percentage of oil revenue each year and also set clear rules when the savings can be used; by whom and what the savings can be used for


19

NOT DONE

Work with the National Assembly to adopt a rule based, realistic and predictable oil-benchmark as a basis for a more transparent management of federation account revenue and excess crude account

The oil benchmark is still calculated by an arbitrary process that is not grounded in any known form of economic methodology.

20

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Work with the legislature to strengthen constitutional provisions to make the meetings of the National Economic Council more periodic and predictable decisions more binding

The NEC has met on a number of occassions sporadically since the administration's inception. However, this is not as a result of a "strengthening of constitutional provisions".

18

ECONOMY


26


20 15 40 1SECTOR

RATING


5 5 00 0SECTOR

RATING

Automate the business registration process to ensure sole proprietorships can be opened within 24hours and incorporate business within 5 days

While there is an administrative directive to this effect, nothing has been done to effect the directives. Businesses still take an unfortunate amount of time to set up.

3

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Forge partnerships with state and local governments and private sectors to promote innovation , entrepreneurship and cottage industries


5

Embark on Vocational training, entrepreneurial and skills acquisition scheme for graduates along with creation Small Business Loan Guarantee Scheme to create at least 5Million new jobs by 2019. A Small and Medium Enterprises Development Commission will be created for this purpose. Also match every job created by each state in that state

The SME Development Commission has not been yet been set up. However, there is a Small and Medium Entreprises Development Agency of Nigeria with roughly the same goals. Vocational training schemes have been announced in a few states. On the SBLGS, see Pledge 60

2

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Reduce the cost of company registration to a maximum of 10,000Naira for sole proprietorships to encourage formalization

There has been some movement on this pledge. However, it is neither law nor subject to an administrative regulation as yet.

4

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Launch a Small Business Loan Guarantee Scheme in partnership with Commercial Lenders to improve access to finance SMEs

A scheme has been announced but has neither been formally launched nor is it in operation. The CBN operates a N200bn Small and Medium Enterprises Credit Guarantee Scheme (SMECGS).

1

SMALL BUSINESSES/ENTERPRENEURSHIP

27



5 2 20 1SECTOR

RATING

Provide allowances to discharged but unemployed Youth Corpers for 12months


3

Create a social welfare program of at least 5,000Naira that will cater for the 25Million poorest and most vulnerable citizens upon the demonstration of children's enrolment in school and evidence of immunisation

The government seems to be close to actualising this pledge if recent comments by the Vice-President are any indication.

2

ONGOING

NOT DONE

DETERIORATED

DETERIORATED

Target the creation of 3Million new jobs per year through industrial ization, public works and agricultural expansion

This pledge was not fulfilled, the situation has deteriorated as the Q1 figures released by the NBS shows the highest unemployment levels in Nigeria's history

5

Create 740,000 (20,000 per state plus FCT) jobs within the 1st 1year

This pledge was not fulfilled, the situation has deteriorated as the Q1 figures released by the NBS shows the highest unemployment levels in Nigeria's history

4

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Create additional middle-class of at least 2 million new home owners in our first year in government and 1 million annually thereafter; by enacting national mortgage single digit interest rate purchase of owner occupier house as well as review the collateral qualification to make funding for home ownership easier, with 15 to 30 year mortgage terms

On the first ambit of the pledge, the government was not able to actualise its 2 million homeowners promise. It has also not been able to formally legislate a single digit interest rate purchase for owner-occupuer homes or control it via market forces or the FMBN.

1

JOB CREATION/ HOUSING/ SOCIAL WELFARE


28

Create a nationwide food inspectorate with a view to improving nutrition and eliminate food borne hazards


2

NOT DONE

Inject extra N30bn to the Agricultural sector to create more agro-allied jobs by way of loans at nominal interest rates for capital investment on medium and commercial scale cash crops;

There is no indication from Budget 2016 that this pledge has been fulfilled since the FG and NASS have been reticent in releasing an itemised breakdown of the budget by ministry. The MoA received N47bn in Budget 2016.

3

NOT DONE

Guarantee a minimum price for all cash crops and facilitate storage of agricultural products

Revive agricultural research institutes that are in a state of comatose

There has been no movement on this pledge

It is unclear if the government made a special budgetary provision for agricultural research institutes.

4

6

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Move the nation to an all year round small, medium and commercial farming through a coordinated integrative irrigation

Review and strengthen veterinary practices nationwide


There has been little movement on this pledge

5

7

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Modernize agriculture and change Nigeria from being a country of subsistence farming to that of large scale farming

The MoA has recently resolved to remove subsidies for fertilisers and help farmers purchase farm machinery through mortgages and loan facilities. Significant traction on this pledge may never occur without much needed land reform.

1

AGRICULTURE

29


Establish agricultural produce storage, pricing and marketing systems to ensure real commercial value and minimize waste


9

NOT DONE

Launch Agricultural Support Programmes in conjunction with state governments to drive agricultural land development and mechanization


10

NOT DONE

Revamp, revitalize and improve on national agricultural extension programme and rural support services system

Revamp Bank of Agriculture, Bank of Industry and NEXIM to fund agricultural value chain operations


The BoI has launched two funds which ostensibly targets entrepreneurs in all industries, including agriculture - the N10bn YES Fund & the GEF Fund for NYSC members. The BoA, in conjunction with the government and the CBN announced a N75bn Agric Intervention Fund in May 2016.

11

13

NOT DONE

ONGOING

Lay the groundwork for a standardized market uptake and aggregation outlets for specific agricultural produce

There has been little movement on this pledge. It must be added that the government indicated in May that it would revive the Abuja Commodities Exchange

12

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Actively promote a well-funded Youth in Commercial Agri-business Programme


8

AGRICULTURE


30

Agricultural cooperative system to drive rural agriculture and improve stake for smallholder farmers will be restored


15

NOT DONE

Develop a system of small scale irrigation systems to ensure all-year round farming

The MoA has recently indicated that it is working out a plan to ensure all-year round farming. However, there is little on the ground

16

NOT DONE

Launch appropriate tariff rectification instruments to support import-export anomalies


17

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Liberalise and expand agricultural and rural insurance systems with premium subventions to support farmers


14

AGRICULTURE

31



17 16 00 1SECTOR

RATING

POWER


32

Give priority to providing electricity for Nigerians The pledge is vague. If priorities are judged by public statements on interest, then it has been fulfilled. If it is assessed by actions, the government is far from actualising this pledge.

2

NOT DONE

Guarantee steady power supply within the next 12-18months. However, there would be notable change within 6months

This pledge was not fulfilled for a myriad of reasons economic headwinds that made power project funding difficult, a mostly directionless power sector policy, the snail pace of power sector reform, sabotage of key power installations as well as a lack or shortage of key commodities that power the value chain (e.g. gas) and an archane, bloated and inefficient distribution system ill fit for 21st century Nigeria.

3

DETERIORATED

Tackle the issue of gas availability for proposed power plants


4

NOT DONE

Start an accelerated training of human resources for the power sector

Work with PenCom to consider giving soft loans to power sector. Explore and develop alternative sources of power such as small, medium and large hydro plants, wind, coal, solar and other forms of renewable energy to ensure efficient and affordable power supply


There has been little movement on this pledge. PenCom has indicated that it will judge the viability of potential investments in the power sector with the rigour of a typical potential institutional investor.

5

6

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Conduct a low demand study for the next 25years and based on that develop a master-plan


1

DETERIORATED

Generate, transmit and distribute from current 5,000 – 6,000 MW to at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years and increasing to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving 24/7 uninterrupted power supply within ten years, whilst simultaneously ensuring development of sustainable/renewable energy.


8

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Explore and develop alternative sources of power such as small, medium and large hydro plants, wind, coal,


7

POWER

33



8 6 20 0SECTOR

RATING

INFRASTRUCTURE


34


6 60 0SECTOR

RATING

Review the PPP enabling environment with a view to addressing legal and regulatory and operational bottlenecks challenging the effective administration of the system by creating enabling legislation and create a National Infrastructural Development Bank to provide loans at nominal interest rates exclusively to rebuild our infrastructure and create employment


2

NOT DONE

Enact new legal and regulatory frameworks to establish independent regulation and incentives to accelerate public and private sector investment in seaports, railways and inland waterways

Rural Water and Sanitation Agencies will develop 10-year plans for extending and upgrading water access in Nigeria

There has been little movement on this pledge. No legislation has been presented by NASS to this effect.


3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Embark on PPP schemes that will ensure all 36 states have functional airports each

RUWASA will go into partnership with private sector to improve access to water sanitation



4

6

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Embark on a National Infrastructural Development Programme as a PPP that will ensure the (a) construction of 3,000km of Superhighway including service trunks and (b) building of up to 4,800km of modern railway lines – one third to be completed by 2019;

The NIDP is in the later stages of its creation. Apart from that, very little traction has been made on this pledge.

1

OIL & GAS

35


Make oil and gas in Nigeria one of the world leading and cutting edge centres for clean oil and gas technology also producing leading oil and gas technologists, scientists and owning mega-structure installations and drilling stations supported by the best scientists, services and research facilities


2

NOT DONE

Fully develop the oil and gas sector's capacity to absorb more of the nation's new graduates in the Labour Market. Provide funding to the sector to produce world class but home grown engineers, technologists and scientists

Enforce the government master-plan for oil companies to end flaring that pollutes the air and damages communities and ensure the oil companies sell at least 50% of their gas produce in Nigeria


There has been little movement on this pledge since May 2015. Any progress in this area must acknowledge the efforts of the last administration.

3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Modernize and unbundle NNPC and make it the national energy champion

The reform and potential unbundling of the NNPC has formed a corner piece of the current administration's anti-corruption, clean government agenda. Having acknowledged this, the NNPC is still substantially the same bloated, inefficient corporate juggernaut that it has been over the last four decades and some.

4

ONGOING

ONGOING

PROMISE COMMENTS

Revive and reactivate our minimally performing refineries to optimum capacity

After some early success in reactivating the Kaduna Refinery, setbacks in the supply of fuel and technical complications have set in. No significant developments in this regard since the start of 2016 as persistent fuel queues across the country will attest to.

1

OIL & GAS


36


10 70 3SECTOR

RATING

Make Nigeria the world's leading exporter of LNG through the creation of strategic partnerships


7

NOT DONE

Commence work with the NASS to review and finalize work on the PIB

Commence organization reform to curb corruption in the NNPC and its subsidiaries

Yet another review on the PIB was announced in June 2015. There has been little movement on this pledge.

The administration has engineered some reforms at the NNPC - including the sack of major directors, an audit of its finances as well as past audits and increased transparency in reporting its activities. The NNPC is set to publish its books for the first time in recent memory.

8

10

NOT DONE

ONGOING

Boost community and local participation in downstream through expansion and promotion of local content development

There has been little movement on this pledge. The Local Content Act was a creation of the past administration. Implementation has been slow. The growth of indigenous oil companies (IOCs) predates the PMB administration.

9

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Speedily pass the PIB and ensure local content issues are fully addressed

The PIB is still mired in the same political rigmarole that has characterised its elongated tenure in the legislature. No progress in this regard.

6

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Target up to 20% of our budget for education whilst making substantial investments in training quality teachers at all levels of the educational system

Education represents only 6.1% of Budget 2016.

2

Reinvigorate technical and vocational education nationwide by giving adequate material support to schools


5

NOT DONE

Provide one meal a day for all primary school pupils After the signing of Budget 2016, the VP indicated that this pledge will soon be implemented.

4

NOT DONE

EDUCATION

37


Enhance teacher training and improve the competence of teachers in the light of the 21st Century


3

PROMISE COMMENTS

Fully review the provisions of the Universal Basic Education act with emphasis on gender equity in primary, secondary enrolment whilst improving the quality and substance of our schools through outcomes based education that addresses the individual, family and societal roles of education and associative skills and competence


1

Establish at least 6 new universities of science and technology with satellite campuses in various states

Some bills for the creation of new universities have been presented to the NASS.

7

NOT DONE

Include vocational skills in the curriculum of Almajiri schools so that they become self employed

Establish technology colleges and vocational centres in each state of the federation



8

10

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Establish a free tuition and scholarship scheme for pupils who show an exceptional aptitude in science subjects

Apart from a few sporadic grants, an organised scholarship and tuition scheme is yet to be instituted.

9

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

EDUCATION


38

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure a greater proportion of expenditure on university education is devoted to helping our youth understand the juxtaposition of science, technology, the humanities and social sciences

The government has made verbal expressions of support of this pledge in principle. Nothing concrete has been done in this regard yet.

6

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Establish 6 centres of excellence to address the needs of special education

Education represents only 6.1% of Budget 2016.

12

Commit to the eventual eradication of illiteracy by guaranteeing and enforcing 9years of compulsory basic education to every Nigerian child as the minimum level of formal education

The MoE has held some workshops on the issue of a 9-year compulsory basic education curriculum. It has not yet become law.

15

ONGOING

Pursue a policy of non-discrimination between universities and polytechnics

The government recently announced proposed plans to convert the HND to B. Tech degree. However, beyond this, there has been little movement on this pledge.

14

NOT DONE

EDUCATION

39


Establish special purpose fund for secondary school level education

Since Budget 2016 as publicly released contains no itemised breakdown by ministry or sector, it is not clear if this fund has been created.

13

PROMISE COMMENTS

Provide a more conducive environment for private sector participation at all levels of education


11


15 140 1SECTOR

RATING

Set effective prosecution and punishment systems for those importing or adulterating drugs in the country

The NAFDAC has been at the vanguard of imposing and enforcing standards of pharma-care and pharmaceutical products in the country. The agency has not been significantly empowered under the current administration over and beyond whatever support it has traditionally received.

2

NOT DONE

The enhancement of epidemiological units /CDC to meet up with global standards in containment of disease outbreaks

Provide Universal Basic Healthcare with 500Naira annual contribution per family in the NHIS

In the wake of the country's successful effort in tackling the Ebola menace of 2014/2015, it is not clear if the Nigerian CDC and associated epidemiological institutions have received significant institutional support.


3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Immediately increase the proportion of Federal spending on healthcare from 5.5% to 10%


6

NOT DONE

Build a network of local and mobile clinics providing free healthcare services and drugs


7

NOT DONE

Create insurance policy for journalists There has been little movement on this pledge.

4

NOT DONE

DETERIORATED

HEALTHCARE


40

PROMISE COMMENTS

Boost the local manufacture of pharmaceuticals and make non adulterated drugs readily available

Due to the forex issue, manufacturers are unable to bring in raw materials and most have reduced the number of production cycles

1

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Implement National Health Act 2014 which guarantees financial sustainability of the health sector and minimum basic healthcare for all and ban medical tourism by government officials

There has been little movement on this pledge save for the ban on medical tourism by civil servants with exceptions.

9

Unveil a health sector review policy to ensure efficient and effective management of health systems

Mobilize health workers needed for all round implementation of primary health programmes for rural communities



12

13

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Review occupational health laws and immediately commence enforcement of provisions


11

NOT DONE

HEALTHCARE

41


Launch Special program to improve availability of water and sanitation


10

PROMISE COMMENTS

Improve life expectancy through grass-roots National Healthy Living programmes


8


13 120 0 1SECTOR

RATING

Unveil a policy that all federal contractors must employ at least 50% young people


2

NOT DONE

Work with private sector to establish innovation fund for young people

Review and make pronouncements, with full political will, on full implementation of the national youth policy

The fund has not been set up. Announced at the International Youth Day in August, 2015 but no further developments


3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Encourage that girls and boys education is prioritized in states where this is established to be a problem


4

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

YOUTH DEVELOPMENT


42

PROMISE COMMENTS

Provide opportunities for youth to realize, harness and develop their potentials to the fullest

It is not clear how the PMB administration hopes to enforce this pledge as it is a wide ranging promises that encompasses education, civic participation, p o l i t i c a l re p re s e n t a t i o n a n d e c o n o m i c empowerment.

1


5 50 0 0SECTOR

RATING

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Revive and restructure the Nigerian Football League and put incentives in place to make it competitive as other nations

The NFF and the League are currently mired in familiar leadership tussles. The Sports Minister has been unable to influence resolution

2

Help as well as mandate schools and communities to create neighbourhood playgrounds/sports centres


4

NOT DONE

SPORTS

43


Put in place measures to identify talents early and ensure their participation in local and international games


3

PROMISE COMMENTS

Establish zonal world class sports academies and training institutes and ensure that Nigeria occupies a place of pride


1


4 40 0 0SECTOR

RATING

Support the creative and performing arts with the necessary environment where entertainers do not end their lives in abject poverty as is currently the case


2

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY


44

PROMISE COMMENTS

Assist Nollywood to fully develop into a world class movie industry that can effectively compete with Hollywood

There has been little movement on this pledge. The only government engagement with Nollywood has been the MOPICON bill which will reverse all the gains Nollywood has made in the past

1


2 20 0 0SECTOR

RATING

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Extend the local content policies to cover software and hardware developments in the youth driven markets

The growth of the tech industry in Nigeria seems to be happening in spite of government, not as a result of its support. The recent fine on industry leader, MTN, as well as the aborted social media legislation count as minuses for the PMB government in this regard.

2

ICT

45


Put in place a quality assurance mechanism to ensure that standards are met and adhered to and make it a policy for companies to procure their ICT needs from the local market


3

PROMISE COMMENTS

Immediately establish linkages with friendly names to champion exchange programmes for acquisition of IT related skills


1

NOT DONE

Hold summit of all ICT providers, OEMs both local and foreign that are doing business in Nigeria

There has been little movement on this pledge. In addition, questions must be raised about how promising to hold a summit should count as an

4

NOT DONE


4 40 0 0SECTOR

RATING

GENDER EQUALITY AND WOMEN EMPOWERMENT


46


7 60 1 0SECTOR

RATING

Provide greater opportunities in education, job creation and economic empowerment for women


2

NOT DONE

Recognize and protect women empowerment and gender equality with special emphasis on economic activities in the rural areas

Implement the National Gender Policy including 35% of appointive positions for women


This has simply not happened. For context, his predecessor only met this threshold once during his six year tenure.

3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Promote amendments of section 14:3 of the constitution to give effect to the expansion of scope of representation to include women and persons with disabilities


6

NOT DONE

Work with the NASS to pass the National Disability Act and the Equal Opportunities Bill


7

NOT DONE

Use the party structure to promote the concept of reserving a minimum number of seats in the state and national assemblies for women


4

ONGOING

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure the rights of women are protected as enshrined in the constitution and guarantee that women are adequately represented in government appointments

PMB appointed six women to his cabinet - this compares with seven in the GEJ government in January 2015, a number which increased to 12 by March of that year. A similar trend can be found in the NASS - only 7 out of 108 senators are female (8 in the 7th Assembly), as well as 11 Reps in the HoR - all new lows for women participation since 1999.

1

Create shelter belts in the states bordering the Sahara Desert to mitigate and reverse the effects of the expanding desert


NOT DONE

Support and accelerate implementation of regional water transport initiatives across the country

Create team of volunteers to plant and nurture economically viable trees in arid regions



3

5

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

Regulate the timber industry to ensure that double the number of trees felled are planted by loggers


6

NOT DONE

Ensure full compliance with town planning laws and edicts


7

NOT DONE

Adopt holistic to erosion and shoreline protection in the country


4

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Ensure compliance with policies and measures to halt the pollution of rivers and waterways in the Niger Delta

In a landmark pronouncement, the PMB administration acknowledged a recent UN report which described the ND as "the most polluted waterway system on earth" and promised to implement his recommendations.

1

ENVIRONMENT

47



7 70 0 0SECTOR

RATING

2

NIGER DELTA


48


3 20 1 0SECTOR

RATING

Implement the United Nations Environmental Programs recommendations on Ogoniland

In a landmark pronouncement, the PMB administration acknowledged a recent UN report which descirbed the ND as "the most polluted waterway system on earth" and promised to implement his recommendations.

2

ONGOING

Unveil a Marshall plan for the regenerative development of the Niger Delta


3

NOT DONE

NOT DONE

PROMISE COMMENTS

Restore the integrity of the Niger Delta by implementing relevant sections of the Ledum Technical Committee report


1

Founded in 2012, SBM Intelligence, an arm of SB Morgen, is an organisation devoted to the collection and analysis of information. We offer comprehensive

analysis for, and support to governments, businesses and NGOs. SBM Intelligence runs a Nigeria-wide network of contacts and associates.

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