Stability and change in public

policymakingJanuary, 2009

Goal: better understanding of the political system

We use Kuhn and Allison to analyze “the system”

Analyze public policy theories focusing on the political sphere

Main concepts in presentation:

Address the tension with Reut’s main concepts

Windows of opportunity

Positive feedback

Punctuated equilibriumBounded rationality

Parallel thinking

Negative feedback

Incrementalism

Serial thinking

Goals:

Our understanding of the political system

Fragmentation within all parts of the system

Lack of incentives for strategic long term thinking

Short and unstable terms

System overloaded and responding to crises

Bounded rationality and incrementalism

Reliance on standard operating procedures lead towards Incrementalism

Bounded rationality

Criticism on rationality

“The basic problem with Incrementalism surfaced when it was tested empirically”

Incrementalism

Simon (1954) , Tversky and Kahnman (1974), Lindblum (1959), Thaler, Sunstein (2008) , Allison (1971)

Simon: people cannot deal with several problems at the same time

stability and change – Punctuated Equilibrium

PE argues such cycles characterize most political systems

True, Jones and Baumgartner,”punctuated Equilibrium Theory”

Parallel processing, stability and incrementalism

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Macro political arena

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True, Jones and Baumgartner “punctuated Equilibrium Theory”

Policy monopoly on Clean-Tech

Policy monopoly on Agriculture

Policy monopoly on Holocaust survivors: experts, lobbyists, media

Israel 15

Serial processing, positive feedback, punctuation

True, Jones and Baumgartner” punctuated Equilibrium Theory”

Positive feedback

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Policy monopoly on Clean-Tech

Policy monopoly on Agriculture

Policy monopoly on Holocaust survivors

Israel 15

Issue punctuates the equilibrium

When changes in circumstances could lead to majors changes in policy outcomes in the long run

punctuation

Windows of opportunity allow positive feedback

Politics Stream

Policy Stream

Problem Stream

Window of opportunity allows positive feedback

Kingdon (1995)

Positive change in practice

Summary (or let’s try to make it linear)

Window of opportunity

Positive feedback

Punctuated equilibrium

Bounded Rationality

Parallel thinkingNegative feedback

Incrementalism

Points for discussion

How does the window of opportunity relate to Heifetz’s terms?

Punctuated Equilibrium and Kuhn’s paradigm shift?

How can these theories help us do more effective ‘sensoring’?

Bibliography

• Tversky Amos and Daniel Kahnman. “judgement under uncertainty:Heuristics and Baised.” Science185 (1974), 1124-31

• Kingdon John. 1995. “Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies”. 2nd ed. Boston.

• Simon, Herbert, A. 1957 “Models of Man.”New York: willie.• Lindeblom, Charles. 1959 “The science of Muddling Through.”

Public Administration Review 1959. 79-88.• James, L. True, Bryan, D. Jones, and Frank baumgartner. 2006 “

Punctuated Equilibrium Theory – Explaining Change and Stability in In P. Sabatier Theories of the Policy Process, 1999