State of the Economy St. John's Metro

Published by:

Office of Strategy & Engagement

City of St. John's

Email: business@stjohns.ca

Although every effort has been made to ensure the completeness and accuracy of the information

contained in this publication, the City of St. John’s does not guarantee, warrant or make any

representations, express or otherwise, that the information contained herein is complete and

correct. All numbers are nominal unless otherwise stated.

Publication date: March 2014

2

St. John's is an economic driver.

St. John's CMA’s1 share of total provincial GDP is 48%.

In 1992, 32.1% of the NL

population lived in the

St. John's CMA. By

2013, that had risen to

38.7%

1 St. John’s Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) is a geographic area defined by Statistics Canada that includes St. John’s and several neighbouring

communities. St. John’s CMA may also be referred to as St. John’s metro throughout this document. Please refer to the following website for a map of

St. John’s CMA http://stats.gov.nl.ca/Maps/

Source: Government of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL), Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

48.0%

52.0%

St. John's CMA Share of Provincial GDP - 2013

CMA

3

St. John's metro economic indicators

Table shows change from previous year. 2013 data is estimated.

Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e:estimate

2012 2013e % Chg

2012-13e

Real GDP (2007$M) 13,364 13,953 4.4%

Retail trade ($M) 3,736 3,882 3.9%

Personal income ($M) 9,200 9,630 4.7%

CPI (2002=100) 123.8 125.7 1.5%

4

St. John's metro labour force experienced

modest declines in 2013. Unemployment rate

reached historic low.

Table shows change from previous year. 2013 data is estimated.

Source: Statistics Canada; Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division. e: estimate

2012 2013e % Chg

2012-13e

Labour force 117,700 115,000 -2.3%

Employment 109,200 108,000 -1.1%

Unemployment rate 7.2% 6.1% -1.1 ppt

Participation rate 72.3% 69.2% -3.1 ppt

5

Economic growth and oil production

Real GDP growth in the St. John’s CMA is sensitive to changes in oil production.

The majority of oil industry activity is resident in the area, therefore most of the

province’s oil-related Real GDP is allocated to the CMA.

Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

5.0

1.1

-0.4

4.4 4.4 2.4

6.3

2.0

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Real GDP Growth With and Without Oil & Gas St. John's CMA (%)

With Oil & Gas Exclude Oil & Gas

2013 2010 2011 2012

6

Source: CNLOPB

Oil production is projected to decline in the long

term, impacting local and provincial economies.

7

Millions of dollars in ongoing developments

Project ≥ $30 M

St. John's International Airport 2014-20 Capital Plan $200

Convention Centre expansion, New Gower St. $64

Three Fifty One office building, 351 Water St. $54

Fortis Tower, 5 Springdale St. $50

Wedgewood Park Recreation Complex, 47 Gleneyre St. $32

Henry Bell Developments - two condo projects including

parking garage, Duckworth/Henry St.

$150

Note: Table is not a complete list of all projects.

8

Growth areas offer significant residential and

commercial development opportunities.

• Harvey’s Power Centre, east side of Torbay Rd (51.35 acres)

• Field Power Centre, west side of Torbay Rd (50.44 acres)

• Glencrest Industrial Centre, Phase One (87 acres)

www.glencrest.ca

• Galway – potential 5,000 residential units and 650,000 sq. ft.

of retail www.galwaynl.ca

9

Major projects in the province are making significant

investments and boosting the local economy.

Note : This is not a complete list of Major Projects.

Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

Hebron Offshore Oil Development (2008-2024) $14 B

Lower Churchill Phase 1, Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric

Generation Facility (2012-2017)

$6.2 B

Hibernia Offshore Oil Development, Southern Extension Unit

(2011-2015)

$1.7 B

Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (Kami Project) (2011-2015) 1.273 B

Husky Energy Offshore Oil Project / South White Rose

Extension (2012-2014)

$1.2 B

Tata Steel Direct Shipping Iron Ore Project (2011-2014) $630 M

Vale Long Harbour Nickel Processing Facility (2009-2015) $4.25 B ($US)

10

In 2013, the CMA recorded its 12th consecutive

annual population increase.

Source: Population estimates, Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

160

170

180

190

200

210

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Population - St. John's CMA 1986 - 2013

203,600

173,258

11

Between the 2001 and 2011 census years, the population of the

communities surrounding the capital city grew by 23.1% while the

population of the City of St. John’s increased 7.0%.

Source: Statistics Canada

13.9%

7.0%

23.1%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

St. John's CMA City of St. John's Metro area excluding St.John's

Population Growth Between 2001 and 2011 CMA, City, Non City CMA

12

Source: Census 2011, Statistics Canada

Seniors are the fastest growing age group. There were

25,055 adults aged 65+ in the St. John’s CMA in 2011, a

20.7% increase since 2006.

6.7 7.3

20.7

0.5

5.7

14.1

0

5

10

15

20

25

0-14 15-64 65+

Growth Rates by Age Category , 2006 to 2011 St. John's CMA (%)

CMA

Can

Age Category

13

Approximately one in four (27.7%) students enrolled at

Memorial University in 2013 were from out of province

(5,172 out of 18,678).

Source: Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador - Fact Book 2013.

1598 1797

1991

2373

2602 2852 2861

3021 3196 3211 3300

574 689 797 864

978 948 1143

1273 1423

1694

1872

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of International Students and Other Canadian Students Enrolled at MUN 2003 - 2013

Other Canadian

International

14

Eighty-five per cent of businesses in St. John’s CMA

have less than 20 employees.

Source: Statistics Canada, Business Register

15

Source: Statistics Canada

St. John’s CMA labour force participation rate

declined slightly in 2013 but remained higher

than the national rate.

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

Labour Force Participation Rates (%) St. John's CMA vs Canada

St. John's CMA Canada

69.2%

66.5%

64.7%

63.4%

16

The annual unemployment rate in the St. John's CMA

reached historic low of 6.1% in 2013.

Source: Statistics Canada

14.0

13.5 12.2

10.2

9.5

9.2

9.2

9.9

9.0

8.8

8.1

6.9

7.8

8.3

7.7

6.6

7.2

6.1

4

6

8

10

12

14

161

99

6

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Annual Unemployment Rate (%) St. John's CMA 1996 - 2013

%

17

Earnings are on the rise, increasing 57% since

January 2005, 10.3% over the past two years

and 3.9% in the past year.

Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), adapted from Statistics Canada (CANSIM)

$605

$658

$640

$748

$781

$805 $860

$913 $949

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average January Weekly Earnings St. John's CMA

2005 - 2013

18

Source: Statistics Canada

St. John’s CMA had the second largest increase in median

total income among major Canadian cites between 2010 and

2011. The median family income rose by 3.1% compared to

an increase of 0.5% in Canada.

Median total income of census families,

by census metropolitan area

% Change

2010 2011

2010 to

2011

Greater Sudbury 78,950 82,220 4.1%

St. John's 80,490 83,020 3.1%

Saskatoon 82,920 84,730 2.2%

Regina 87,370 88,750 1.6%

Edmonton 90,500 91,860 1.5%

Calgary 92,100 93,410 1.4%

Edmonton 90,500 91,860 1.5%

Quebec 78,680 79,140 0.6%

Montreal 68,970 69,150 0.3%

Halifax 78,730 78,690 -0.1%

Winnipeg 74,150 74,040 -0.1%

Vancouver 69,050 68,970 -0.1%

Toronto 70,100 69,740 -0.5%

Canada $71,900 $72,240 0.5%

$

19

Driven by gains in personal income and high levels of

consumer confidence, retail sales have increased

71% over the past 10 years.

Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

2.27

2.28 2.53

2.61

2.76 3.03

3.12

3.25

3.44 3.74

3.88

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Billio

ns

$

Retail Sales - St. John's CMA

2003 - 2013

20

The average MLS®1 housing price has more than

doubled since 2005 (+113.4%), and increased 12.2%

in 2013.

1 MLS® (Multiple Listing Service) is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Source: CMHC, adapted from MLS® data.

141.2 139.5

157.0

178.5

218.9

251.2

268.6

285.5 301.3

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Th

ou

sa

nd

s $

Average MLS Housing Price in St. John's

2005 - 2013

21

Note: CMA housing starts include St. John's housing starts.

Source: CMHC

St. John’s CMA housing starts decreased 19.5% to

1,734 units in 2013. In the City of St. John’s, housing

starts decreased 24% to 759 units.

807

935 1029

1350

1604

1834

1534

1275

1480

1863

1703

1816

1923

2153

1734

579

713

398 585

751

932

783

579

713

670

751 701

949

1,001

759

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Housing Starts - St. John's and CMA 1999 - 2013

CMA St. John's

22

The value of commercial building permits in St. John’s

decreased by 50% to $108.3 million in 2013 while

residential permits decreased 16% to $165.2 million.

Source: City of St. John's

Com = Commercial/Industrial Permits, Res = Residential Permits

0

100

200

300

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Value of Construction from Commercial and Residential Building Permits

City of St. John's, 2003- 2013 $Millions

Com Res

$M

illi

on

s

23

Office vacancy rates have declined substantially since

2005. An additional 358,028 sq. ft. of office space is

currently under construction in downtown St. John’s.

* Class A buildings in St. John's are: Baine Johnson Building, Fort William Building, Cabot Place, and Scotia Centre.

Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic, Altus Group

2.3

2.6

1.1

0.1 0.4 0.8

0.0 0.0

0.1

11.7

8.5

5.7

3.9

2.4

4.6 4.1

3.7

5.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1st Quarter Office Market Vacancy - St. John's CMA (%) 2005 - 2013

Class A Overall

%

24

Office market rental rates increased to $31.05 per

sq. ft. in 2013, an increase of 67% over the gross

rental rate in 2006 .

$18.63 $19.05 $18.58 $20.70

$24.57 $27.50

$29.11 $31.05

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

First Quarter Gross Rental Rate (office) St. John's 2006-2013

Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic

25

Industrial market rental rates increased to $12.51 sq. ft.

in 2013, an increase of 43.5% over 2006. The industrial

vacancy rate decreased by 12.0% over the same time

frame.

5.57%

3.60%

5.19%

6.27%

7.27%

5.64% 5.90%

4.90%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

$0.00

$2.00

$4.00

$6.00

$8.00

$10.00

$12.00

$14.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

RENT PER SQ.FT.

First Quarter Gross Rental Rate and Vacancy Rate, Industrial

St. John's 2006-2013

Source: Cushman Wakefield Atlantic

26

PAST YEAR

St. John's 2.7%

PAST 3 YEARS

St. John's 8.5%

PAST 10 YEARS

St. John's 56.5%

Source: St. John's International Airport Authority and Transport Canada

Passenger traffic reached a record high at St. John's

International Airport. The number of passenger movements

increased 2.7% in 2013 to approximately 1.5 million.

802 852

922

869

950

1083

1175

1243

1185

1223

1224

1319

1371

1447 1487

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Airline Passenger Movements at St. John's International Airport 1999 - 2013 (000's)

27

Source: Government of NL, Department of Tourism, Culture and Recreation and City of St. John's

Tourism revenues in St. John’s rose 8.5% to

$214.3 million in 2012.

28

Note: Occupancy rates reflect all rooms sold for all purposes including tourism, conventions, business etc.

Source: Destination St. John’s and PKF Consulting Inc.

St. John's had the 2nd highest hotel occupancy rate

(73.4%) of major Canadian destinations in 2013. The

St. John’s rate increased 1.2% points from 2012.

57.1

57.5 60.8 61.5

62.7 62.8 62.9

64.7

66.5 68 68.1

69 69.7

70.4 72.6

72.7 73.4

75.4

30 40 50 60 70 80

Alberta ResortsWhistlerMoncton

Quebec CityWinnipeg

CanadaHalifax

VictoriaMontrealTorontoOttawa

VancouverEdmonton

Thunder BaySaskatoon

CalgarySt. John's

Regina

Hotel Occupancy Rates (%) Major Canadian Destinations - 2013

29

Source: Government of NL, Department of Finance, Economic Research and Analysis Division

2014 Outlook for St. John’s

• Economic growth is expected to

increase, but at a slower pace than 2013.

• Personal income is expected to continue

to grow driven by continued wage gains.

• Economic growth and income gains are

expected to bolster consumer spending

with retail trade expected to continue to

record steady growth.

30

www.stjohns.ca