Project Lead: Environment Canada

Research Partners:Université de MonctonUniversity of New BrunswickMount Allison UniversityDalhousie UniversityUniversité Laurentian UniversityCentre of Geographic SciencesUniversité de SherbrookeNB Department of EnvironmentNB Department of Natural ResourcesEnvironment CanadaNatural Resources CanadaParks Canada AgencyFisheries and Oceans Canada

New Brunswick Sea-level Rise Project

Multi-disciplinary Integrated Approach:• Sea-level Rise and Regional Subsidence• Storm Surge, Wind, Wave and Ice

Climatology• Storm Surge and Meteorological

Modeling• Lidar and Digital Elevation Model• Coastal Erosion• Ecosystems Impacts• Socio-Economic Impacts• Adaptation Strategies

Objective:To quantify the impacts of sea-level rise in support of ….• Sustainable management• Community resilience• Adaptation strategies

Climate-Change Issues in Coastal Zone

• Storms & storm-surgeflooding

• Sea-level rise• Shoreline erosion• Sea ice & open water• Ecosystem impacts• Community impacts• Socio-economic

response

L

1000mb

Jan 22, 200008:00 pm AST98.6 kp

Jan 21, 200002:00 pm AST94.6 kp

Jan 21, 200008:00 am AST95.4 kp

Jan 21, 200008:00 pm AST95.1 kp

Storm ofJanuary 21, 2000

Jan 20, 200008:00 pm AST97.4 kp

Jan 21, 200002:00 am AST96.4 kp

Jan 20, 200002:00 pm AST98.6 kp

Jan 22, 200002:00 am AST95.6 kp

Jan 22, 200008:00 am AST96.8 kp

Jan 22, 200002:00 pm AST98.0 kp

Jan 20, 200008:00 am AST99.6 kp (new)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Water Levels

HighestAstronomicalTide

17-Mar-76

21-Jan-00

Baseline Storm Surge Event – 21 Jan 2000

Shediac Bay Surge

Maximum extentof glaciation18 000 years

ago….

Sea level has risen 120 m since last glaciation

PEI notan island

Courtesy John Shaw GSC

8000 Years Ago

Charlottetown - Annual Mean Water Levels 1911-2002

y = 0.3308x + 145.5

R2 = 0.9174

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

185

1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Heig

ht

above C

hart

Datu

m (

cm

)

Annual Mean Water Level

Average (=162.30 cm)

Linear Regression

The Past Century

(32 cm per century)

Georges Parkes, Environment Canada; Don Forbes, Natural Resources Canada

Sea Level Rise for Next Century (NB Study)

50 ± 356 ± 5Escuminac

51 ± 357 ± 5Kouchibouguac

53 ± 359 ± 5Bouctouche

54 ± 3510 ± 5Shediac

56 ± 3512 ± 5Cap-Pelé

57 ± 3513 ± 5Shemogue

59 ± 3515 ± 5Cape Jourimain

TotalRise(cm)

VerticalMotion(cm)

Site

15 cm / 10 years

0 cm / 10 years

3

-1

3

3

3

3

3

3

-2

-1

Canadian Spatial Reference System (courtesyGeomatics Canada) & vertical velocity from ICE-4G

(courtesy W.R. Peltier University of Toronto)

Vertical Motion of the Earth’s Crust

Don Forbes, Natural Resources Canada

LiDAR Mapping

Shediac Bay

Tim Webster, Centre of Geographic Sciences

Vertical accuracy +/- 10-30 cm

Shediac Town Hall

Scenario – Jan 21, 2000

40 –Year Return Level for Storm Surge EventsLevel of Return Level of Return (m)(m)

Hal Ritchie, Environment Canada; Natasha Bernier, Keith Thompson, Jeff MacDonald, Jie Ou, Dalhousie University

Storm Surge Return Periods – Pointe-du-Chêne

Diminishing Return Periods…

Sea-Level Rise Impact on Tides

Annex / Annexe A Annex / Annexe B

Key message – Future Flooding Risks

The research has shown that ……

– the current 100-year storm-surge return level (the recordflooding event of January 21, 2000) is expected to occur,on average, every 10 years with a 60-cm sea-level risescenario

– and every 5 years with a 1-metre sea-level rise scenario

Coastal Erosion Component

One of the most important consequences of climate change willbe the acceleration of coastline and shoreline recession rates

Cadman Corner, 2004Dominique Bérubé, Stéphane O’Carroll, NB Department of Natural Resources

Cadman Corner, 2004

April 2004

Photo by G. Manson

April 2004July 1999

Dec 28 2004

Erosion – La Dune de Bouctouche

Photo by R. Daigle

Photo by G. Manson

Coastal Erosion/Change

Coastline/Shoreline changes in New Brunswick

(1944/1945 – 2001/2002)

Erosion Rates Changing?

Average coastal erosion rates for the three sectors

1944-1971: 0.99 m/y (margin of error: ±0.27 m/y)1971-2001: 0.83 m/y (margin of error : ±0.23 m/y)

Cocagne

l’Aboiteau Shemogue

Coastal Erosion Component…In Conclusion:

• Three quarters of the coastline insoutheastern New Brunswick hasmoved inland since 1944;

• Coastline/shoreline recession ratescan highly variable from one area toanother, and from one decade toanother, which make them hard topredict;

• Erosion control structures are amajor threat to coastal habitat integrity.

Ecosystem Impacts - Piping Plover

• Endangered shorebird endemic to NA

• Atlantic Canada population 500 adults

• Recovery goals: 510 adults, 1.65 chicks/yr

Al Hanson, et al. Environment Canada

Key Message – Ecosystem Impacts

Must manage short-term and long-term human impactson wildlife populations and ecosystems

Socio-economic Impacts

Purpose:

• To enhance communities’ understanding of theeconomic implications of climate change in the coastalzone

Research Objectives:• Evaluate potential impacts

• Test various economic assessment tools

• Evaluate community resilience & adaptation capacity

Lisa DeBaie, Kelly Murphy Environment Canada

Socio-Economic Impacts – Shediac Bay

> 2.5M6

2.0M - 2.5M5

1.5M - 2.0M4

1.0M - 1.5M3

0.5M - 1.0M2

0 - 0.5M1

DepthFloodClass

Socio-Economic Impacts – Shediac Bay

> 2.5M6

2.0M - 2.5M5

1.5M - 2.0M4

1.0M - 1.5M3

0.5M - 1.0M2

0 - 0.5M1

DepthFloodClass

Existing properties at risk of flooding,21 Jan 2000 event (current sea level)

$518,40026$47,827,900908$2,397,80014$8,333,40033$58,848,400658Total

$00$00$00$3,5001$006

$00$3,3002$128,3001$00$10,00015

$2,7002$196,8007$00$8001$14,40044

$1,2001$3,309,20065$60,0001$00$1,509,600203

$57,4002$12,212,900234$39,7003$4,163,2008$8,501,700982

$457,10021$32,105,700600$2,169,8009$4,165,90023$48,812,7005351

AssessedValue

No.Assessed

ValueNo.

AssessedValue

No.Assessed

ValueNo.

AssessedValue

No.

Farms &Woodland

RecreationalInstitutionalCommercial &

IndustrialResidential

FloodClass

Existing properties at risk of flooding, 21 Jan 2000 event (50-cm SLR Scenario)

$542,90030$55,155,3001,087$2,615,20017$10,761,60043$70,265,900826Total

$00$3,3002$128,3001$01$10,00016

$2,7002$196,8007$00$3,5001$14,40045

$1,2001$3,192,80062$00$8000$1,072,000164

$00$10,820,800213$99,7004$4,163,2008$6,072,600693

$123,0004$15,706,600336$740,5002$1,857,90013$17,951,7002062

$416,00023$25,235,000467$1,646,70010$4,736,20020$45,145,2005301

AssessedValue

No.Assessed

ValueNo.

AssessedValue

No.Assessed

ValueNo.

AssessedValue

No.

Farms &Woodland

RecreationalInstitutionalCommercial &

IndustrialResidential

FloodClass

B. Process*

Adaptation: Strategy for Community Decision -Making

A. Framework Components

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a Champion, Effective Engagement, and

Alternative Conflict Management Techniques.

Adaptation Framework

Sue Nichols, Hazel Onsrud, UNB

What worked well in NB project….

• The smoking gun!

• The sustained media interest

• The integrity of the science

• The integrity of the mapping

• The multi-disciplinary approach

• THE COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

Thank youMerci

Project Report:http://www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/final_coastal_e.php

Speaker Info: Réal DaigleR.J. Daigle Envirordenviro@nb.sympatico.ca