SPS X Report - Front - AERC · 2019-03-14 · documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, produced by...

i

ClimateChangeClimate Change andEconomic Development inSub-Saharan Africa

AERC Senior Policy Seminar XAddis Ababa, Ethiopia7–9 April 2008

Seminar Report

African Economic Research ConsortiumConsortium pour la Recherche Economique en Afrique

PO Box 62882 – City SquareNairobi 00200, Kenya

Middle East Bank Towers, 3rd Floor, Milimani RoadTel: (254-20) 273-4150Fax: (254-20) 273-4173

www.aercafrica.org

SPS X Report - Front.pmd 31/03/2009, 14:031

ii

The African Economic Research Consortium (AERC), established in 1988, is a public not-for-profit organization devoted to the advancement of economic policy research andtraining. AERC's mission is to strengthen local capacity for conducting independent,rigorous inquiry into problems facing the management of economies in sub-SaharanAfrica. There are two principal approaches to this: learning by doing research inthematic, collaborative and other modalities, and support for postgraduate trainingthrough collaborative master's and PhD programmes.

Networking – the linking of individuals and institutions in a knowledge sharing,experience sharing framework – is the key strategic instrument for implementingAERC's activities. The network approach links economists within and outside the regionand promotes professional esprit de corps.

The Consortium is itself a network of 16 funders who support a commonly agreedprogramme of research activities, its dissemination and the training of future potentialresearchers. The Board of Directors sets broad policy, provides support for a multi-yearprogramme of activities, approves annual work programmes and budgets, and appointsthe Consortium's international staff. An independent Programme Committee sets theresearch agenda, advises on scientific matters, and reviews and approves proposals forresearch and training grants. Academic Boards for the collaborative master’s and PhDprogrammes oversee the implementation of their respective programmes. A smallSecretariat, based in Nairobi, Kenya, manages the programme and provides technicalsupport to researchers, students and participating institutions. This organizationalstructure allows for ownership of AERC activities by the network of local researchers, anindependent determination of the research agenda, and a programme of activities that isresponsive to the professional and policy needs in the region, while at the same timeensuring accountability to funders.

Climate Change and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa – AERC SeniorPolicy Seminar X, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 7–9 April 2008: Seminar Report

Published by: African Economic Research ConsortiumPO Box 62882 – City SquareNairobi 00200, Kenya

Printed by: Signal Press LimitedPO Box 12714Nairobi 00100, Kenya

ISBN: 9966-778-38-1

© 2008, African Economic Research Consortium


iii

Contents

List of Abbreviations ivAcknowledgements vClimate Change ... Seminar Rationale 1Climate Change and Economic Development – Issues, Challenges andOpportunities for Africa 4Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture: The Challenges of Climate

Change in SSA 8Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness 11Climate Change and Economic Growth in SSA: An Assessment of Climate

Risk 14Lessons and Policy Options 16

Impact of Climate Change on Economic Development 16Lessons Learnt from Other Parts of the World 17Opportunities Presented by Climate Change for Economic Development 18Challenges Presented by Climate Change for Economic Development 18Strategies and Policy Options for Managing the Impact of Climate Change 19Policy Relevant Research Issues Based on Identified Challenges 20

Closing 20AnnexesA Seminar Papers 21B Seminar Participants 22C Seminar Programme 31


iv

AERC African Economic Research ConsortiumAfDB African Development BankAIDS Acquired immune deficiency syndromeAU African UnionCDM Clean Development MechanismCH4 MethaneCO2 Carbon dioxideDRC Democratic Republic of CongoFAO Food and Agriculture OrganizationECOWAS Economic Community of West African StatesGDP Gross domestic productGHG Greenhouse gasHIV Human immuno-deficiency virusIIASA International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisICT Information and communication technologyIDRC International Development Research CentreIPCC United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeMDGs Millennium Development GoalsNAPAs National Adaptation Programmes of ActionN2O Nitrous oxidePRSP Poverty reduction strategy paperSPS Senior Policy SeminarSSA Sub-Saharan AfricaSST Sea surface temperatureUNECA United Nations Economic Commission for AfricaUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Abbreviations


v

As projections of the adverse impacts of climate change and globalwarming continued to worsen, we at the African Economic ResearchConsortium realized that we needed to be more proactive in identifying

the economic policy issues underlying the problem – and the solutions. Thatrealization, reinforced by requests from policy makers, was the genesis of thechoice of theme for our tenth Senior Policy Seminar. This is a new area for us, andenlisting the necessary expertise required looking beyond our traditional network.

AERC is immensely grateful to the Government of Ethiopia for welcomingus to the country. We also appreciate the cooperation of the United NationsEconomic Commission for Africa - UNECA - for hosting the event at theirheadquarters. We are especially thankful to the scholars who were more thanwilling to share the results of their research in this forum, and to the policymakers who joined us for discussions. Their interest was manifest throughoutthe proceedings, making for dynamic discussions. We thank them all.

We also thank Prof. Olu Ajakaiye, AERC Research Director, Charles Owino,Communications Manager, and Lydiah Auma, Publications Administrator, fortheir tireless efforts in planning and implementing the seminar. And weacknowledge Jacqueline Macakiage, Resource Mobilization Manager, Dr. DamianoManda, Thematic Research Manager, and Dr. Felix N’zue, Collaborative ResearchManager, for their role as rapporteurs. Miriam Rahedi, Publications andCommunications Assistant, assisted with the preparations; Winston Wachanga,Information Resources Administrator, worked on promotional materials, DamarisMichoma, Human Resources Administrator, assisted with logistics, and MargaretCrouch, publications consultant, edited and designed the report. To all of theseand the many others who were involved, AERC extends its sincere appreciation.

William LyakurwaExecutive DirectorAfrican Economic Research Consortium

Acknowledgements


vi


1

ClimateChangeThis is the word on everyone’s lips these days, as it portends potentially

massive alterations in weather patterns around the world and disruptionsto economic growth in many regions. Coping with the impact of climate

change is a major policy challenge, especially in Africa, which is projected tobear the brunt of adverse effects even though its contribution to thephenomenon has so far been minimal.

For all these reasons, climate change was chosen as the topic for the tenthSenior Policy Seminar to be convened by the African Economic ResearchConsortium (AERC). The theme is a major departure for the Consortium, butthe policy connection compels AERC’s involvement in this issue. Thus theseminar addressed the physical, socioeconomic and global impacts of climatechange with reference to sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in terms of povertyreduction measures since agriculture forms the backbone of the continent’seconomies and the livelihoods of Africa’s poor. Nearly 80 participants from 21countries came together for the event. They included top African policy makersand advisors, scholars, resource persons, and directors of various researchinstitutes.

To policy makers who feel that poverty issues are more pressing thanclimate change, Prof. Richard S. Odingo, one of the presenters, pointed out that“we can’t solve poverty until we stop climate change”. This was the challengefacing the participants at this seminar. That many of them also found thechallenge compelling can be seen in the attendance of six full ministers and twoassistant ministers who remained partners in the proceedings throughout.

Discussions at the seminar revolved around four major areas:Climate change and economic development – Issues, challenges andopportunities for AfricaClimate change, agriculture and food securityClimate change, trade and competitivenessClimate change and economic growth

Climate Change... SeminarRationale

SPS X Report - Body.pmd 31/03/2009, 14:041

2

Nearly all of the impacts of climatechange – in Africa and elsewhere – areexacerbated by inappropriate policychoices.

Also on the programme was a screening of the award-winningdocumentary, An Inconvenient Truth, produced by former U.S. vice-president AlGore. Mr. Gore shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) for their efforts to “change the world’sconsciousness” about the challenges of global warming.

Opening SessionWelcome: William Lyakurwa, Executive Director, AERCWelcome: Lalla Ben Barka, Deputy Executive Director, UNECAKeynote: Louis Kasekende, Chief Economist, AfDB,Programme Overview: Olusanya Ajakaiye, Director of Research, AERC

In his introductory remarks, William Lyakurwa highlighted the aimsof AERC’s tenth Senior Policy Seminar (SPS). Through the focus onclimate change and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa, Professor

Lyakurwa explained, “It is expected that policy makers in the seminar wouldspell out a proactive stance for African policy makers in general, particularly asthe international community prepares to arrive at global consensus onmanaging climate change. The tenth SPS is aimed at making a strong andpositive contribution to the policy making process for the long term-benefit ofsub-Saharan African countries by increasing awareness among national andregional policy makers on climate change”. He pointed out that it is importantto keep in mind that nearly all of the impacts of climate change – in Africa andelsewhere – are exacerbated by inappropriate policy choices, often those takinga short-sighted view of what is best for some definition of economicdevelopment. Such choices arise from the “they-did-it-why-can’t-we”syndrome, as well as from the idea that business may suffer if controls are putin place. Or simply from the failure to recognize the importance of soundurbanization, population, agriculture, land use and water policies in overalleconomic development.

Lalla Ben Barka, Deputy Executive Director of the United Nation EconomicCommission for Africa (UNECA), which hosted the event, followed Professor


3

Lyakurwa with welcoming remarks on behalf of the UNECA ExecutiveSecretary, Abdoulie Janneh. Ms. Ben Barka acknowledged the significance ofclimate change to African economies and congratulated AERC for taking theinitiative of mainstreaming climate change into its research agenda. Climatechange is also important to UNECA, she said, which has taken steps to establisha Climate Policy Centre to build the capacity of African policy makers whoparticipate in international discussions on climate change.

Louis Kasekende’s keynote address stressed the need for an African voice inthe international arena. This requires stronger collaboration between researchinstitutions (such as AERC) and continental bodies (such as the AfDB andUNECA). It is in the search for such collaboration that three organizations(AfDB, UNECA and AERC) arrange the annual African Economic Conference,which brings in African researchers including those in the diaspora. Dr.Kasekende pointed out that climate change is always associated with economicgains as well as losses. If the losses outweigh the gains, the human populationwill be at risk. It is therefore necessary to minimize the risks associated withclimate change by trying to limit cost to around 1% of GDP, rather than permitcosts to reach 20% of GDP, a level and more that is possible if the impacts arenot minimized. Moreover, he said direct and indirect impacts of climate changethreaten to reverse decades of economic development efforts.

By bringing together renowned African scholars, the seminar intended toexplore ways of sensitizing the region’s governments to advise theircommunities to take a proactive stance to climate change in order to reducevulnerability to the vagaries of drought and flooding.

Climate change is always associatedwith economic gains as well as

losses. If the losses outweigh thegains, the human population will be

at risk.

One can’t talk about economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa withoutaddressing agriculture, and one can’t address agriculture without

considering climate change. The policy issues are intertwined and havemajor potential for impact on poverty reduction efforts.


4

Climate Change and EconomicDevelopment – Issues, Challenges andOpportunities for AfricaChair: Prof. William Lyakurwa, Executive Director, AERC, Nairobi,

KenyaPresenter: Prof. Richard Odingo, Vice Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC); and Distinguished Professor ofHydrology, Geography Department, University of Nairobi,Kenya

Anthropogenic – human induced – climate change is the culprit in theglobal warming phenomenon seen today, according to Professor Odingo,mainly through agriculture and fossil fuel use. Although Africa’s

contribution to climate change problems is minimal, he said, the continent willsuffer enormous adverse impacts, and yet very little empirical evidence isavailable to date on the impact of African countries’ development plans onclimate change. One result, he said, is that little effort has been made tomainstream climate change into countries’ economic planning. Consequently,one of the challenges facing the continent today is simply to undertake empiricalstudies in this field, which have been left so far to Western countries. ProfessorOdingo presented findings from research conducted under the IPCC. Amongothers, he pointed out the following:

Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) andnitrous oxide (N2O) have increased significantly as a result of humanactivity. These are among the greenhouse gases contributing to thephenomenon of global warming.Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident fromobservations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.Changes in precipitation, increased drought and more frequent extremeweather events, have become common.

To date, little effort has been made tomainstream climate change intocountries’ economic planning.


5

Professor Odingo called for policy makers and the general public to build abetter understanding of climate change and its causes (specifically theanthropogenic causes). He argued that the attribution to human activity arisesbecause most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures sincethe mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Discernible human influencesnow extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.

The observed widespread warming of the atmosphere and ocean, togetherwith ice mass loss, support the conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that theglobal climate change of the past 50 years can be explained without externalforcing, and very likely that it is not due to known natural causes alone.Anthropogenic forcing is also likely to have contributed to changes in windpatterns as well, affecting extra-tropical storm tracks and temperature patternsin both hemispheres. Temperatures of the most extreme hot nights, cold nightsand cold days are likely to have increased. Projections of future changes inclimate, according to IPCC data, include the following:

For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projectedfor a range of emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of allgreenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, afurther warming of about 0.1°C per decade would be expected andcontinued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would causefurther warming and induce many changes in the global climate systemduring the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observedduring the 20th century.Snow cover will contract. There will be widespread increases in thaw depthover most permafrost regions. The glaciers on Mt. Kilimanjaro and Mt.Kenya may be gone by 2020. Sea ice will shrink in both the Arctic and theAntarctic. Arctic late-summer sea ice will disappear almost entirely by thelatter part of the 21st century. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat wavesand heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.Results from a range of climate models indicate that it is likely that futuretropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, withlarger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated withongoing increases of tropical sea surface temperatures.

As long as the CO2, CH4, N20 and othergreenhouse gases continue to be released

into the earth’s atmosphere, globalwarming will not only persist but all the

consequences associated with it willhappen globally and in the African region.


6

It is very likely that the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of theAtlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Temperatures in theAtlantic region will increase despite such changes as a result of the muchlarger warming associated with projected increases of greenhouse gases.The population at risk of increased water stress in Africa is projected to bebetween 75 million and 250 million people by 2020, rising to 350–600 millionpeople by 2050.

Moreover, Professor Odingo reported, anthropogenic warming and sealevel rise would continue for centuries because of the timescales associated withclimate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were tobe stabilized. Contraction of the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue tocontribute to sea level rise after 2100.

The continent’s already bad situation of water resources will beexacerbated. Climate variability and change, coupled with human inducedchanges, may also affect ecosystems (mangroves and coral reefs), withadditional consequences for fisheries and tourism.

Rising sea level would increase flooding in low lying coastal areas, whichwill in turn increase the physical and socioeconomic vulnerability of coastalcities. Climate change, interacting with human drivers such as deforestation andforest fires, are a threat to Africa’s forest ecosystem. For example, by 2020, theice cap on Mt. Kilimanjaro could disappear; others like Mt. Kenya and Mt.Ruwenzori will equally suffer. Countries like Kenya, Guinea and Eritrea willsuffer crop losses and infrastructure damage because of the rise in sea level.Flood risks and water-borne diseases in low-lying regions (coastal areas), aswell as coral reef bleaching as a result of climate change, could have a negativeimpact on tourism. The latter would also affect the productivity of fisheries.

In sum, anthropogenic climate change will negatively affect human healthin Africa. Indeed, by 2100, areas of dense human population in Zimbabwe thatwere previously unsuitable for distribution of malaria will become suitable fortransmission. Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya,Rwanda and Burundi could also experience modest changes that would makethem suitable to malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmissionbecoming highly suitable by the 2080s.

Current research shows that 70% of theemissions now found in the atmospherehave taken place in just the last 30 years –since 1970.


7

The professor called on African leaders to undertake “common sensemitigation” – efforts that would cost little or nothing – and not to wait for thewestern world, which has been reluctant to fulfil promises to help vulnerableAfrican countries since the signing of the United Nations Framework onClimate Change (UNFCC) in 1992. He urged Africans to continue thedevelopment of coping strategies to adapt to climate change. The factors thatdetermine the adaptive capacity of a nation or a continent include: technology,education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and variouspsychological factors and management capabilities. Africa is very poor in mostof these areas.

Discussions following Professor Odingo’s presentation pointed out that:Poverty eradication initiatives must be linked with policies to addressclimate change.

Africa needs to have a holistic view of climate change since it is a crosscutting issue. It should therefore be integrated into development strategiesacross ministries – water, energy, environment, disaster risk, health, finance,economy and planning.

How can Africa take maximum benefit of the opportunity presented byclimate change? For example, how will the continent’s forest ecosystems bevalued as compared with alternative uses, especially since Africacontributes the least to GHG? What will be the opportunity cost to economicdevelopment of saving these forest ecosystems?

Poverty eradication initiatives must be linked with policies to addressclimate change.

Carbon capture and storage, which extracts carbon dioxide from industriesand stores them in the earth, is a promising technology for those countriesthat are geologically stable. Carbon can also be stored under the sea bed.The first country to use this method was Algeria, which is storing carbon inoil wells that are no longer in use.

Mt. Kilimanjaro’s iconic ice capcould disappear by 2020, so toocould the glaciers on Mt. Kenya

and Mt. Ruwenzori.


8

Food Security and SustainableAgriculture: The Challenges of ClimateChange in SSAChair: Louis Kasekende, Chief Economist, African Development BankPresenter: Mahendra Shah, International Institute for Applied Systems

Analysis (IIASA), AustriaDiscussant: Shyam Nath, Professor of Economics, Department of Economics,

University of Mauritius

Comparative costs related to action and inaction in response toclimate change formed the core of Dr. Shah’s presentation, whichsummarized methodological approaches used in conducting the

research. The approach uses a specific methodology (agro-ecological zone)developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) since 1976. It provides aninventory of land resources (soils, terrain, population) and matches the cropmodels best suited for that land. The framework has 18 country models,including Kenya, Nigeria and Egypt.

Findings from these models showed, among other things, that:Bio-fuel production in a country like Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)will deplete the forest cover and upset the ecological rain catchmentbalance. It may result in import dependence as climate change continues tonegatively affect the production of maize and wheat.Neither China nor India (nor Africa combined) will catch up with the US interms of cumulative carbon emissions in the next 50 years.Sub-Saharan Africa does not have the arable land necessary to extendagricultural production. It therefore needs to increase yield per hectare.

Arguing that since Africa and developing countries in general do not havethe necessary financial resources to engage in mitigation, Dr. Shah said the firstand foremost priority for these countries should be to focus on adaptation

Kenya, Guinea and Eritrea willsuffer crop losses and infrastructuredamage because of the rise in sealevel.


9

methods. Moreover, he pointed out that developing countries that havecontributed the least are the worst affected by climate change and that everydeveloped country has used IPCC results to analyse the impacts of climatechange on their economies. It is therefore time for developing countries ingeneral and Africa in particular to also use those IPCC results to assess climatechange impacts on their economies and estimate the cost of adaptation.

Under the guidance of Professor Nath, the floor discussions highlighted thefollowing concerns:

Governments must not wait for disaster to strike before they react.Multinational companies are now seeking to buy land from poor Africans toproduce biomass for bio-fuels, and African governments need to makepolicy decisions to ensure that the poor are not further impoverished.Models on climate change were for the benefit of the North. There istherefore need for Africa to develop African energy data.In certain African countries, water holes used by cattle and wildlife aredrying up faster today than previously. They used to last for around threemonths after the end of the rainy season, but now dry up within twomonths, and this with a decline in the number of cattle. Investigationsshowed that temperatures are increasing and evaporation is much faster.There is the need to establish meteorological infrastructure across thecontinent to monitor climate change.Africa needs to develop capacity to do the research, make the policy deci-sions and implement the actions related to the impacts of climate change.Current data for estimating the impacts of climate change on individualSSA countries are based on global models. Africa-specific models areneeded to estimate the costs of climate change and adaptation technologies.

There is a strong correlation between per capita incomes, the level ofindustrialization and greenhouse gas emissions. In sub-Saharan Africa – the

region with the lowest average per capita income – agriculture accounted foran average of 30% of GDP, with some countries’ share being as high as 50%.

And between 1990 and 2005, the share of manufacturing in most Africancountries had declined, contrary to expectations of most growth theories.

Sub-Saharan Africa, accounting for10% of the world’s population, has

contributed less than 2.5% of globalGHG emissions from fossil fuels and

about 3.5% from agriculture anddeforestation.


10

Africa needs to invest in climate forecasting and individual countries haveto be willing to invest in research and development.Although the arguments for adaptation are unassailable, anticipation,preparation and dissipation are equally important. African institutions needto be effectively placed and structured to cope with climate change. Thiscalls for governments to strengthen existing institutions and to build newones where such institutions do not exist.

Summing up, Dr. Shah made several additional points: He said Africawould be better off working with the best and worst climate change scenarios,rather than the averages, and noted the need for Africa to be careful about thediversion to bio-fuels. African countries must also look at achieving somemeasure of self-sufficiency, for example by revitalizing extension services andutilizing daily radio programmes to provide information on weather conditions,when to plant, when to sell, etc. To move forward, Dr. Shah recommended thatevery African country should look at its resource base, climate change informationand remote sensing data. He assured participants that IIASA would be willingto help in building capacity of African scientists in the area of climate change.

Neither China nor India willcatch up with the US in termsof cumulative carbon emissionsin the next 50 years.

The Kyoto Protocol provides for a measure known as the CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM) that allows a country with an emission-

reduction or emission-limitation commitment under the Protocol toimplement an emission-reduction project in developing countries. Such

projects can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits, eachequivalent to one tonne of CO2, which can be counted towards meeting

their Kyoto targets. CDM project activity might involve a ruralelectrification project using solar panels or the installation of more energy-

efficient boilers. The mechanism aims to stimulate sustainable developmentand emission reductions, while giving industrialized countries some

flexibility in how they meet their emission reduction or limitation targets.There are currently 850 CDM projects in 49 developing countries, but only

23 are in Africa. There is therefore a need to broaden the scope (e.g.,inclusion of agricultural practices) and coverage of the CDM.


11

Climate Change, Trade and CompetitivenessChair: Hon. Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu, Minister for Tourism, Trade and

Industry, UgandaPresenter: John Asafu-Adjaye, Associate Professor of Economics, University

of Queensland, AustraliaDiscussants: Dominique Njinkeu, Executive Director, ILEAP, Canada

Adolf Mkenda, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

John Asafu-Ajaye investigated the impact of climate change on trade andcompetitiveness in sub-Saharan African countries and addressed theimplications for managing the impacts, including the options for mitigation

and adaptation. In his presentation, Professor Asafu-Adjaye outlined variousreasons as to why climate change is a serious threat to sub-Saharan Africa. Firstof all, SSA countries are already warmer compared with other non-tropicalcountries. Moreover, most SSA economies are predominantly based onagriculture, which is the most climate sensitive sector, while the region’sprevailing low per capita incomes and persistent poverty present a majorchallenge for adapting to climate change and variability. In addition,developing responses to climate change, urgent as the need is, could furtherslow progress towards the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals(MDGs) in the region.

With all that, the impact of climate change on trade and competitiveness inSSA is apt to be severe in many aspects. Climate change has already led toaverage crop losses: At least four countries have losses of 100% and anotherthree have losses exceeding 50%. By the 2080s, average losses for SSA areprojected to be about 28% on average, without carbon fertilization and about18% with carbon fertilization.

As a way to reduce the impact of climate change, countries should try toadapt to climate change and to mitigate the impacts. there are major constraintsto adaptation, however. These include lack of information, institutionaldeficiencies, biophysical deficiencies (e.g., ecosystem degradation), futuredevelopment in energy markets including bio-fuels, financial constraints, andthe various types of adaptation costs, such as transition costs and equilibrium

Climate change is a reality thatmust be confronted even if onestill doubts its links with human

activities.


12

costs, which are often unknown making it difficult to plan effective adaptationstrategies.

Professor Asafu-Adjaye made a number of recommendations for ways thatSSA could deal with the impact of climate change. At the global level, he saidAfrica should push for expansion of the scope of the Clean DevelopmentMechanism (CDM) to include agricultural practices. He also said that postKyoto negotiations should include the aspect that SSA is the lowest polluter andhas contributed the least to global warming. Moreover, it is necessary tointensify and improve negotiations for economic partnership agreements (EPAs)and the next Doha Round as a means of improving Africa’s advantage in themedium term.

Nationally and regionally, SSA countries could take such steps as investingin public mass transportation systems and improving urban planning, as well asreviewing lifestyles in relation to the consumption of water and electricity useand how the two are priced. Governments could also consider giving tax breaksto firms and households that are environmentally friendly. A review of thepossibility of climate insurance through public-private partnerships was alsosuggested. It is necessary to change the top-down approach of NationalAdaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) to a bottom-up approach byincluding citizens in the decision making and focusing on livelihoods ratherthan on sectors. Other recommendations were that SSA should build adaptivecapacity, set up early warning systems, improve water storage and farmingsystems, invest in rural infrastructure and marketing institutions, improvephysical infrastructure, and construct defensive structures such as mangrovebelts, tree shelterbelts and others.

Dr. Njinkeu and Dr. Mkenda led discussions that made the followingobservations:

There is need to take a wider view by discussing key trade items beyondagriculture, such as minerals and oil. It is also necessary to incorporatepolicy issues arising from trade competitiveness.

With regard to institutional and governance issues, it is crucial to factor incoordination of efforts towards climate change. There must also betimeliness in responses to disasters. Funding of such activities may have tocome from other processes and a fund could be set up for this.

Agricultural lobbies are the weakestlobbies in Africa, and yet agriculture isresponsible for at least 30% of GDP,in contrast to the developed countries.


13

What exactly does “mainstreaming” mean in terms of climate change? Theissue should stand on its own within national policies and programmes.

There should be emphasis on regional coordination. There are manyadvantages in tapping the regional initiatives that Africa has, especially inexploiting trans-boundary resources such as rivers and lakes. Beyondcoordination at regional level, there must be exchange sharing between theregions. SSA countries should take steps to remove the obstacles to tradepromotion and reduce inflation.

There is more potential for CDM to enhance competitiveness of Africanindustries and hence the need for SSA countries to take advantage of CDMtechnologies. On sectoral responses, it would be interesting to get someperspectives on the possibility of SSA gaining an offensive in the DohaRound. Climate change is a good opportunity for SSA to do this. As formultinationals moving operations into Africa, their emissions potentialshould be reviewed against the need for local companies to be at par as wellas ensuring that the local firms can eventually take over.

SSA countries underestimate the tax value of natural resources, e.g., howthe demand for diamonds, oil and tanzanite will be affected by climatechange in 2080. How will trade in our products be affected as a result ofclimate change? There is need to propose cleaner development practices inmanufacturing and to compute how much SSA would save in terms ofenvironmental destruction.

Africa has a strong case to put forward, and the case for climate change is abig bargaining chip, which it could utilize to its advantage.

Governments could consider givingtax breaks to firms and householdsthat are environmentally friendly.


14

Climate Change and Economic Growthin SSA: An Assessment of Climate RiskChair: Essowe Ouro-Djeri, Vice Minister, Environment, Tourism and

Forest Resources, TogoPresenter: Casey Brown, Associate Research Scientist, International Research

Institute for Climate and Society, USADiscussants: Edwin Muchapondwa, Senior Lecturer, School of Economics,

University of Cape Town, South AfricaEphraim Kamuntu, Minister for Tourism, Trade and Industry,Uganda

Much remains unknown in terms of climate change projections for SSA,Dr. Brown reported in his presentation, in part because many climatechange impact projections are based on statistics from North America

and India and extrapolated to other countries. Nevertheless, drought is thesingle largest cause of death due to natural disasters, at approximately 50% ofthe global total, and floods account for the highest property loss. Exposure tothese disasters has doubled over the past 15 years, and quadrupled over thepast 25 years. As examples he said that the impact of droughts and floods hasreduced economic growth in Ethiopia by one-third according to a 2006 WorldBank study, and Kenya’s annual GDP was reduced by 10–16% from 1998 to2000 because of El Niño-related drought and flooding. Globally, as much as 25%of GDP (US$3 trillion) is directly or indirectly affected by climate extremes.IPCC scenarios suggest that such disasters will occur with increasing frequencyin developing regions.

Citing econometric analyses used to study the sensitivity of GDP to climatechange, Dr. Brown reported that results show that about a half of all thecountries have significant climate effects. Precipitation extremes (especiallydrought) have the most important climate effect on economic growth, withabout one-third of countries showing significant negative impact from drought.Temperature effects are less significant.

Uncertainty about futureprojections requires a climate riskmanagement approach, andmanaging current variability is thefoundation of adaptation.


15

Climate risk management focuses on current pressing issues while factoringin projected changes in climate. Protecting against climate hazards is thereforeessential, according to Dr. Brown. Interventions that provide benefits regardlessof climate changes and reduce current climate vulnerabilities are a first step inadaptation. Climate risk management will then require that countries invest inclimate information systems/early warning systems; diversification of cropsand livelihoods; financial risk transfer (e.g., index insurance); and marketdevelopment, transportation and storage.

Dr. Brown concluded with the following observation: Adaptation planningmust be based on an understanding of climate impacts. In SSA, drought is thedominant climate impact. Uncertainty of future projections requires a climaterisk management approach, and managing current variability is the foundationof adaptation. Noting that most current efforts are ad hoc and fragmented, hismain recommendation was that governments should mainstream climatechange risk assessment into all aspects of policy planning.

Floor discussions guided by Dr. Muchapondwa and Professor Kamuntuhighlighted the following issues:

Governments should mainstream climate change risk into all aspects ofpolicy planning.

South Africa – even though a full signatory to the Kyoto protocol – is ranked15th among the top emitters of GHG in the world because of its significantdependence on coal as a source of energy. They have to date ensuredclimate change alignment with the country’s sustainable development.

Greater effort is needed to align the economic data with climate data interms of seasonality.

There is also need to identify the best methodology for capturing the impactof climate change given data issues in sub-Saharan Africa.

Mitigation is important and should not be ignored.

Drought is the single largest cause ofdeath due to natural disasters, at

approximately 50% of the global total,and floods account for the highest

property loss.


16

Lessons and Policy Options

Following the presentations, participants were divided into four groups byregion: Eastern Africa Region, the Sahel Region of West Africa, WestAfrica/Forest Region and Central Africa, and Southern Africa Region. The

groups were charged with continuing and refining discussions according to thefollowing structured terms of reference:

Impact of climate change on economic developmentLessons learnt from other parts of the world that may be applicable to thisregionOpportunities and challenges presented by climate change for economicdevelopmentStrategies and policy options for managing the impact of climate changePolicy relevant research issues based on identified challenges

Results of the separate discussions were considered in the plenary, andprioritized according to issues that were found to be common in the fourgroups. The following presentation arranges the main points according tocategories.

Impact of Climate Change on Economic DevelopmentThe groups noted that climate change was a reality in all four regions. Its impactis evident in terms of sharp reduction and uneven distribution of rainfall acrossthe region, e.g., prolonged drought in some areas and very heavy rains leadingto floods in others, shifts in precipitation, high evaporation, temperature rises ofup 3°C, excessive high dry winds associated with erosion, and encroaching sanddunes in desert areas. These have an impact on many economic activities. Alongthe coastal areas rising water levels affect tourism and higher water temperatureaffects fish stocks.

There has also been an impact on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africagenerally as prolonged drought leads to crop failure and affects livestock, henceresulting in food insecurity. Floods are associated with water-borne diseasesand epidemics in the affected areas. Both drought and floods also affect tourism

At most, we have a 30 year windowof opportunity to deal with the threatsof climate change; if we wait anylonger, it will be too late.


17

through their impact on wildlife and the destruction of the supportinginfrastructure. The decline in rainfall amounts also affects the energy sector,especially hydroelectricity generation.

Lessons Learnt from Other Parts of the WorldStudies undertaken in other areas show the need for integrating environmentalpolicies with development policies, and promoting private sector participationincluding farmers from elsewhere to invest in agriculture. This should beimplemented cautiously, however, so that the indigenous farmers do not losetheir ancestral land. The prime actor should thus remain the government, heldin check by the citizenry, and governments should invest in infrastructure.There is a need for better storage and use of water in dams to stabilizeagricultural production for perennial irrigation. Among issues, countries’ cropselection should reflect areas of comparative advantage and dykes may beneeded to control flooding and sea creep.

In addition, emphasis should be on developing alternative energy sources,for example a focus on using solar energy in Africa, particularly for households,as it could go a long way towards solving household energy problems.Construction of dams in flood prone areas, which will also contribute to theproduction of hydroelectric energy. There is also need to build capacity at thenational level to analyse the costs and impacts of climate change in SSA.

In coastal areas, a number of steps can help deal with the effect of climatechange. These include non-structural approaches such as avoiding constructionat the river channels and the removal of mangrove swamps and discouragingsettlement on coastal lands. Since sea walls have been found to be less thaneffective, other approaches are needed to prevent sea encroachment and soilerosion. Of critical importance is to improve awareness of the challenges amongcoastal communities. Coastline studies, as done in West Africa, should beemulated elsewhere in the continent.

Other lessons imply the following actions:Ensuring decisive but gradual responses to uncertainty and providingquality information for people to assist them to adapt.Giving farmers the means to adapt, for example access to credit andinsurance, and involving people by enabling them to participate.

There is need to build capacity at thenational level to analyse the costs and

impacts of climate change in SSA.


18

Developing early warning systems, which are necessary to enable countriesto deal with some of the effects of climate change.

Opportunities Presented by Climate Change for EconomicDevelopment

Possibility of gaining income by reducing emissions from deforestation anddegradation is one of the positive features of the climate change scenario.The World Bank is carrying out studies on carbon stocks potential so thatcountries can enter the carbon market. Countries that can participate naymake some economic gains.Climate change offers an opportunity to strengthen regional integration inAfrica. There is a lot of potential for the Congo and Cameroon river basins,for example, and well developed regional economic communities likeECOWAS can help integrate power resources in West Africa.The need to cope with climate change will oblige African countries to plantheir economies for the long term (10–20 years time).Demands for adaptation and mitigation compel countries to take steps thathave, arguably, been postponed for too long, such as:– Developing alternative sources of energy.– Diversifying agricultural production.– Identifying and investing in alternative livelihoods and diversifying

trade.– Conserving available resources by rain and running water harvesting,

among others.

Challenges Presented by Climate Change for EconomicDevelopment

Lack of funds for dealing with the problems wrought by climate change likeincreased flood and drought.Uncertainty about the actual impacts of climate change, rendering itdifficult to make informed decisions on agriculture.Lack of political will to take measures to respond to climate change.Mobilization of cross-sector collaboration to respond to climate change.Changing the mindset, e.g., moving towards nuclear power.

Climate change is already a reality in all fourregions of sub-Saharan Africa, with sharpreduction and uneven distribution of rainfall,prolonged drought in some areas and veryheavy rains leading to floods in others, shiftsin precipitation, high evaporation, and so on.


19

Mistrust among countries across the region or within subregions, whichmay hinder a common approach to dealing with the issues of climatechange.Provision of enough resources to maintain a system of informationdistribution to farmers.Newness of the concept, and the long-term nature of the projections, whichmeans that it is not easy to integrate into development processes.Lack of appreciation of future risks, despite the widespread publication ofthe projections.High cost of technology to adapt.Low stock of knowledge and inadequate research and capacity to developviable clean development mechanisms (CDMs).The need to reconcile poverty reduction with sustainable development.

Strategies and Policy Options for Managing the Impact of ClimateChange

Adapt/adopt crops resistant to the vagaries of weatherImprove water storage.Improve food storage and post harvest management generally.Develop infrastructure, especially in rural areas.Articulate and implement national irrigation policies and strategies.Develop alternative sources of energy.Address issues of clean technology.Increase productivity, and the quality ad traceability of products.Add value to products.Discourage consumption of goods that pollute the environment.Develop efficiency of production lines.Enhance skills (human resource capacity).Promote research and development to support the production of other typesof crops and provide guidelines for adapting to climate change.Develop and emphasize intra regional trade to reduce reliance oninternational trade.Use more eco-friendly sources of energy in production, e.g., solar and windpower.

The newness of the climatechange concept as a policy

issue, and the long-term natureof the projections, mean that it

is not easy to integrate intodevelopment processes.


20

Mainstream environmental issues in economic policies.Encourage the use of mass transportation and discourage the import of usedvehicles.Retain the use of simple and cheap technologies, e.g., diesel water pumps,to increase agricultural production.Invest in bio-technology and early warning systems.

Policy Relevant Research Issues Based on Identified ChallengesImpact of climate change on the economy, particularly on the costs ofclimate to the economy and agricultural sector.Climate change mitigation and adaptation.How to enhance resilience of specific food crops – and agriculture in generalDeterminants of the vulnerability of nations to climate change.Risk management and risk-sharing mechanisms.More studies specific to Africa to link climate change, trade andcompetitiveness.

Closing

Professor Lyakurwa closed the seminar by thanking everyone forparticipating so fully in the discussions. He said that only with the fullattention of policy makers would sub-Saharan Africa be able to counter or

adapt to the impacts of climate change. He pledged AERC’s continuing interestin supplying the evidence base for policy decisions, and noted that theConsorium was exploring ways of mainstreaming climate issues into itsresearch agenda even as policy makers mainstreamed them into povertyreduction and other frameworks.

Mistrust among countries acrossthe region or within subregionsmay hinder a common approachto dealing with the issues ofclimate change.


21

ANNEX ASeminar Papers

Climate Change and Economic Development – Issues, Challenges and Opportunities forAfrica in the Decades Ahead, by Richard Samson Odingo, Vice Chair,Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and DistinguishedProfessor of Hydrology, Geography Department, University of Nairobi

Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture: The Challenges of Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Mahendra M. Shah, Senior Scientist, Land Use Change andAgriculture Programme, Dean of Young Scientists Summer Programme andCoordinator of UN Science and Policy Relations, International Institute forApplied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; Guenther Fischer, ProgrammeLeader, Land Use Change and Agriculture Programme, IIASA; and Harrij vanVelthuizen, Senior Scientist, Land Use Change and Agriculture Programme,IIASA

Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa, by John Asafu-Adjaye, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia

Climate Change and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Assessment ofClimate Risk, by Casey Brown, Associate Research Scientist, InternationalResearch Institute for Climate and Society, USA, and Assistant Professor,Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University ofMassachusetts, Amherst; Robyn Meeks, Research Assistant, Kennedy School ofGovernment, Harvard University; and Kenneth Hunu, Research Assistant,Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University ofMassachusetts, Amherst.


22

ANNEX BSeminar Participants

Host Representatives

1. Ms. Lala Ben BarkaDeputy Executive SecretaryUnited Nations Economic Commissionfor AfricaPO Box 3001Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

2. Hon. Tegenu Argaw AlemayehuMinister, Ministry of Mining and EnergyPO Box 486Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-11 6463357Fax 251-11 6463364Email: [email protected]

Cameroon

3. Mr. Grégoire Mebada Mebada,Permanent Secretary/University LecturerMinistry of the Economy, Planning andRegional DevelopmentEx-CNR Building 1st FloorPO Box 13127Yaoundé, CameroonTel : +237 22 233896Fax : +237 22 233896Email : [email protected]

4. Dr. Haman UnusaAssistant ResearcherMinistry of Environment and Protectionof Nature, Ecological Monitoring UnitBP 320Yaoundé, CameroonTel: 237 99490110Email: [email protected]

Chad

5. Mr. Muhammad Sani AdamuExecutive Secretary, Lake Chad BasinCommissionCBLT SiegeBP 737N’Djamena, ChadTel.: +235 2523938Fax: +235 2524137Email: [email protected], [email protected]

Congo (Brazzaville)

6. Dr. Jean-Christophe BoungouBazika

Directeur Général CERAPE115 bis avenue Boueta MbongoBP 15397Brazzaville, CongoTel : 242 5229312Email: [email protected]


23

7. Mr. Joseph Gabriel MokimaCoordinator General, Unite de Rechercheen Analyse Societale (URAS),89 Avenue de France, Poto PotoBP 421Brazzaville, CongoTel: 242 6620264Fax: (+242) 814136Email: [email protected]@yahoo.fr

Congo (DRC)

8. Mr. Muta Kishimbe RobertFonctionnaire, Université de Kinshasa/Ministère du BudgetAv. N’Sele, Mont NgafulaKinshasa, République Démocratique duCongoTél : +243 81 3652531E-mail : [email protected]

9. Prof. Muen Kabeya NtombiProfesseur/Consultant au Ministère del’Environnement, Université de KinshasaBP 190 KIN XIKinshasa, République Démocratique duCongoTel: +243 999336744E-mail: [email protected][email protected]

10. Mr. Hippolyte NsimundeleCharge D’Etudes, Ministère du Budget279 Avenue Luisa/LingwalaKinshasa/GombeDemocratic République of CongoTel: (243) 810 327841E-mail: [email protected]

Ethiopia

11. Dr. Josué DionéDirector, Food Security and SustainableDevelopment DivisionUN Economic Commission for AfricaPO Box 3001,Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251 11 5510406Fax: 251 11 5510350Email: [email protected]

12. Mr. Michael Charles AkolEnvironmental Affairs OfficerFood Security and SustainableDevelopmentUNECAPO Box 3005Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-11-5443349Fax: 251-11-5514416Email: [email protected]

13. Mr. Ousmane LayeChief, Environment and SustainableDevelopmentUNECAPO Box 3005Addis Ababa, EthiopiaPhone:251-11-5515761Fax: 251-11-5514416Email: [email protected]

14. Mr. Hamdou Raby WaneEconomic Affairs OfficerFood Security and SustainableDevelopmentUNECAPO Box 3005Addis Ababa, EthiopiaPhone: 251-11-5443233Fax: 251-11-5514416Email: [email protected]

15. Mr. Kodjo P. AbassaOfficer in Charge/APSSFood Security and SustainableDevelopmentUNECAPO Box 3005Addis Ababa, EthiopiaPhone: 251-11-5515756Email: [email protected]

16. Dr. Strike MkandlaUNEP Rep to AU, UNECA and EthiopiaLiaison Office5th Floor, UNECA New BuildingPO Box 3001Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-11-5445402Fax: 251 11 5221633Email: [email protected]


24

17. Mr. Johnson Akinbola OguntolaSenior Regional Advisor (IWRM)UNECAPO Box 3001Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-11-5445263Fax: 251-11-5514416Email: [email protected]@un.org

18. Ms. Isatou GayeEconomic Affairs Officer, NEPAD andRegional Integration DivisionUNECAPO Box 3005Addis Ababa, EthiopiaPhone: 251-11-5443089Fax: 251-11-5514416Email: [email protected]

19. Prof. Befekadu DegefePO Box 2858Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251 911 218357Email: [email protected]

20. Mr. Dula ShankoActg Deputy Director GeneralNational Meteorological AgencyPO Box 1090Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-11-6615779; 208024Fax: 251-11-6625292/5517066Email: [email protected]@ethionet.et

21. Dr. Berhanu AdenewEEA/EEPRIBeklo Bet, Near Zefco Building, Infront ofLancha, around 400 metersRed Sea Construction BuildingAddis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251 - (0)11-4162121Fax: 251 - (0)11-4160967email: [email protected]

22. Mr. Meskir Tesfaye AsfawClimatologist/Team LeaderEnvironmental Protection AuthorityPO Box 12760Addis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251-911-751834Fax: 251-11-6464876Email: [email protected]

23. Mr. Abiyot BerhanuHead, Information and DocumentationInstitute of Biodiversity ConservationYeka Sub-CityAddis Ababa, EthiopiaTel: 251 0911 120725Fax: 251 11 6613722Email: [email protected]

Ghana

24. Dr. Sesi AkoenaDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of GhanaPO Box LG 57, LegonAccra, GhanaTel: 233 21 501485Fax: 233 21 501486Email: [email protected]

Kenya

25. Mr. John Kamau MungaiDirector - Policy, Ministry of AgriculturePolicy and Agriculture Devt.Kilimo House, Cathedral RoadPO Box 30028Nairobi 00100, KenyaTel: 254 20 2710817Cell: 254 722 297330Fax: 254 20 2711149Email: [email protected]

26. Ms. Isabella MasindeExecutive DirectorRural Livelihoods ProgrammeCentre for Livelihood OpportunitiesUnlimited and Technology (CLOUT)PO Box 64024Nairobi 00620, KenyaTel: +254 722372225 Email : [email protected]

27. Mr. David Mbugua KahuriaDirector, Kenya Forest ServicePO Box 30513Nairobi 00100, KenyaMobile: 254 722680223Fax: 254 347640Email: [email protected]@wananchi.com


25

28. Dr. Robinson Kinuthia NgugiSenior Lecturer, Land ResourcesManagement and Agric TechnologyUniversity of NairobiPO Box 29083Nairobi 00625, KenyaTel: +254 721-294097Fax: +254 020 631932Email: [email protected]

Liberia

29. Dr. Laurence K. BroplehMinister for Information, Culture andTourismCapital HillPO Box 10-9021Monrovia, LiberiaMobile: 231 6 546166Email: [email protected]@yahoo.com

Madagascar

30. Dr. Lilia RabeharisoaTeacher/Researcher, Director ofLaboratoire des Radio IsotopesUniversity of AntananarivoBP 3383Antananarivo, MadagascarTel: +261 202416103Fax: +261 20 22 369 82Email: [email protected]. [email protected]

Mali

31. Hon. N’diaye BahMinistre, Ministère de l’Artisanat et duTourismeBPE 2211Bamako, Mali Tel: 2236343Fax: 2293917Email: [email protected]

32. Mr. Ibrahima DoumbiaSecrétariat Technique PermanentSecrétariat Technique Permanent ducadre institutionnel de gestion desquestions environnementalesMinistère de l’EnvironnementQuartier du FleuveBP 2357Bamako, MaliTel: 223 6729174Fax: 223 8235867Email: [email protected]@yahoo.fr

33. Mr. Moussa DialloDirecteur Général AdjointOffice Malien de Tourisme et del’HôtellerieBP 191, Rue Mohamed 5Bamako, MaliTél: (223) 222 5673; 6435306Fax: (223) 2225541Email: [email protected]@yahoo.fr

34. Mr. Souleymane CisseConseiller Technique, Ministère del’Environnement et de l’AssainissementBP 1634Bamako, MaliTel : (223) 2295172; 689 424Fax: (223) 223 5867Email: [email protected]

35. Dr. Amadou DialloConseiller Technique enBiodiversité, Ministère del’Environnement et de l’Assainissement BP 1634 Hamdallaye ACI 2000Bamako, République du Mali Cell: (223) 6685179Fax: (223) 2295165Email: [email protected]


26

Mauritius

36. Mrs. Bibi Ameenah RojoaPrincipal Financial and ManagementAnalyst, Management Audit BureauMinistry of Finance and EconomicDevelopmentEmmanuel Anquetil Building, 8th FloorPort Louis, MauritiusTel: (230) 2013727Fax: (230) 2110285Email: [email protected]

37. Mr. Yahyah PathelDivisional Environmental OfficerMinistry of Environment and NationalDevelopment UnitKen Lee Tower, 6th FloorBarracks StreetPort Louis, MauritiusTel: 230 2113198Mobile: 230 9189254Fax: 230 2116687Email: [email protected]

38. Dr. (Ms.) Yeti Nisha MadhooLecturer, Department of EconomicsUniversity of MauritiusReduit, MauritiusTel: 230 4541041Fax: 230 4656184Email: [email protected]@yahoo.com

Namibia

39. Dr. Kalumbi ShangulaPermanent SecretaryMinistry of Environment and TourismCapital Centre, LevinsonArcade, Independence AvenuePrivate Bag 13306Windhoek, NamibiaTel: 0811246812Email: [email protected]

Niger

40. Mr. Adamou IbrahimDirecteur General, Ministere del’Amenagement du TerritoireNiamey, NigerTel: 227 96888759Fax: 227 20735322Email: [email protected]

41. Mr. Ibrahima HarounaDirecteur des Statistiques, Ministere duDéveloppement AgricoleBP 12091, SIS PIP2/ANPIPNiamey, NigerTel: 227 20 752772Fax: 227 20 732008Email: [email protected]

42. Mr. Abdallah SambaChef, Division Sécurité Alimantaire etAccès aux MarchésCentre AGRHYMETBP 11011Niamey, NigerTel: +227 96270323Fax: +227 20315435Email: [email protected]

Nigeria

43. Prof. Lekan OyebandeProfessor of Hydrology and WaterResources, Department of Geography,University of LagosPO Box 160, UNILAG Post OfficeAkoka-YabaLagos 101017, NigeriaTel.: +234 8033 086714 or +234 1 7933223Email: [email protected],

Senegal

44. Mr. Omar DiawIngenieur des Eaux et Foréts, Cheif DeDivision Suivi Evaluation, Ministère DesEaux, et Fôrets Chasse et Conservationdes Sols, Parc Forestier de HannBP 1831 DakarTel: 221 33 8310101Fax: 221 33 8320426Email: [email protected]


27

45. Mr. Abdou Salam KaneConservator of Madelein Island NationalPark, Ministry of Environment andNatural ResourcesBP 5135 Dakar-FannParc Forestier et Soologique de HanDakar, SenegalTel: 221 77 832 23 09; 77 631 18 48Fax: 221 33 8322311Email: [email protected]@gmail.com

46. Dr. Fatima DentonTeam Leader, International DevelopmentResearch Centre (IDRC)Climate Change Adaptation in AfricaProgrammeAv. Cheikh Anta Diop, X Bd. De l’EstBP 11007, PeytavinDakar, SenegalTel: +221 864 0000 ext. 2222Fax: +221 825 3255Email: [email protected]

47. Dr. Marcel NwalozieDirector of ProgrammesConseil Ouest et Centre Africain pour laRecherche et le Developpement Agricole(CORAF)7 Avenue BourguibaBP 48Dakar RP, SenegalTel: +221 338 869 96 18Fax: +221 869 96 31Email: [email protected]

Sierra Leone

48. Hon. Dr. Joseph Sam SesayMinister, Ministry of Agriculture,Forestry and Food SecurityYouyi BuildingFreetown, Sierra LeoneTel: +232 76-610-260Email: [email protected]

South Africa

49. Mrs. Lemao Dorah NteoDirector, Policy and StrategyDepartment of Environmental andTourismCnr Pretoria and Van Der Walt StreetPO Box 27480Sunnyside 0132Pretoria, South AfricaTel: 27 12 3103717Fax: 27 12 2301135Email: [email protected]

Tanzania

50. Hon. Prof. Peter MsollaMinister, Ministry of Agriculture, Foodand CooperativesKilimo Building, TemekeBox 9192Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaTel: +255 22 2862065Mobile: +255 784-384877Fax: +255 22 2862075Email: [email protected]

51. Hon. Dr. Batilda Salha BurianiMinister of State – EnvironmentVice President’s OfficeP.O Box 5380, Dar es Salaam. TanzaniaTel: +255 22 2128771Fax: +255 22 2128749Email: [email protected]

52. Joseph Sulle QamaraSenior Environmental OfficerVice President’s Office (Environment)P.O Box 5380 Dar es Salaam. TanzaniaTel: +255 22 2128771Fax: +255 22 2128749Email: [email protected]@yahoo.com


28

53. Patrick NdakiSenior Environmental OfficerVice President’s Office (Environment)P.O Box 5380 Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaTel: +255 22 2128771Cell: +255 713 764795Fax: +255 22 2128749Email: [email protected]

54. Mr. Swai InvocavitDirector of Policy and PlanningMinistry of Energy and MineralsPO Box 2000Dar es Salaam, TanzaniaTel: 25522110741Fax: 255222120799Email: [email protected]

Togo

55. Mr. Essowé Ouro-DjeriDeputy Minister, Ministry ofEnvironment, Tourism and ForestsRue des NimesBP 4825Lomé, TogoTel: 228 9031738Fax: 228 2210333Email: [email protected]

Tunisia

56. Dr. Louis KasekendeChief Economist, African DevelopmentBankBP 323-1002Tunis Belvedere, TunisiaTel: 216 71102062/71102848Email: [email protected]@afdb.org

Uganda

57. Prof. Kamuntu EphraimMinister for Tourism, Trade and IndustryPO Box 1569Kampala, UgandaTel: 256 772 774876Fax: 256 267 545Email: [email protected]

58. Mr. David O.O. ObongPermanent SecretaryMinistry of Water & EnvironmentPlot 26, Old Port Bell RoadPO Box 20026Kampala, UgandaTel: 256 414 505 945Fax: 256 414 505941Email: [email protected]@dwd.go.ug

59. Eng. Henry Igaga BidasalaActg. Assistant Commissionerfor Electric Power, Ministry of Energyand Mineral DevelopmentPO Box 7270Kampala, UgandaTel: 256 312 262345Fax: +256 414 349342Email: [email protected]@yahoo.com

60. Mr. Onesimus MuhweziDirector, Environmental Monitoring &Compliance, National EnvironmentalManagement AuthorityPO Box 22255Kampala, UgandaTel: 256 772 465154,/0312 108849Fax: 256 41 257521/233680Email: [email protected]

61. Mr. Johnson Owaro,Disaster Management CoordinatorOffice of the Prime MinisterPO Box 341Kampala, UgandaTel: +256 712 859 622Fax: 256 41 236119Email: [email protected]

62. Dr. Bernard BashaashaSenior Lecturer, Department ofAgricultural Economics and AgribusinessMakerere UniversityPO Box 7062Kampala, UgandaTel: 256 772 627249Fax: 256414531641Email: [email protected]@agric.mak.ac.ug


29

Zambia

63. Hon. Vera Tembo ChilubaDeputy Minister, Ministry ofEnvironment and Natural ResourcesPO Box 34011Lusaka, ZambiaTel: 260 955 110670Fax: 260 211 223301Email: [email protected]

64. Mrs. Chiseche MutaleChief Planner, Ministry of Tourism,Environment and Natural ResourcesPO Box 34011Lusaka, ZambiaTel: +260 211 238772Fax: +260 211 238773Email: [email protected]

65. Mrs. Angela Katongo KabusweSenior Environment Management OfficerMinistry of Tourism, Environment andNatural ResourcesPO Box 34011Lusaka, ZambiaTel: +20 977729326Email: [email protected]@mtenr.gov.zm

Zimbabwe

66. Dr. Innocent MatsheChair, Department of EconomicsUniversity of ZimbabwePO Box MP167 – Mt. PleasantHarare, ZimbabweTel: 263 912241587Fax: 263 4 333553Email: [email protected]@hotmail.com

Resource Persons

67. Prof. Richard S. OdingoDistinguished Professor of Hydrology,Department of Geography and Environ-mental Studies, University of NairobiPO Box 30197Nairobi, KenyaTel: 254 020 318262 ext 28016Fax: 254 020 245566Mobile: 254 720 615744Email: [email protected]

68. Dr. Casey BrownAssociate Research ScientistInternational Research Institutefor Climate and Society133 Monell BuildingPalisades, NY 10964 USATel: 1 845 6804464Email: [email protected]

69. Dr. Mahendra M. ShahSenior ScientistInternational Institute for AppliedSystems Analysis (IIASA)Schlossplatz 1A-2361 Laxenburg, AustriaTel: +432236807508Fax:+43 223671313Email: [email protected]@aol.com

70. Prof. John Asafu-AdjayeAssociate ProfessorSchool of EconomicsRoom 653 Colin Clark Building St. LuciaUniversity of QueenslandBrisbane, AustraliaTel: +61 7 3365 -6539Email: [email protected]

Observers/Discussants

71. Dr. Dominique NjinkeuExecutive Director, International Lawyersand Economists Against Poverty (ILEAP)1240 Bay Street, Suite 602Toronto, Ontario M5R 2A7, CanadaTel: 1416 3092330 x 500Fax: 1416 309 2331Mobile: 1647273 5305Email: [email protected]

72. Dr. Edwin MuchapondwaSenior Lecturer, School of Economics,University of Cape TownPrivate Bag Rondebosch 7701Cape Town, South AfricaTel: 27-21-650-5242Fax: 27-21-650-2854Email: [email protected]


30

African Economic ResearchConsortium

3rd Floor, Middle East Bank TowersMilimani Road

PO Box 62882 – City SquareNairobi 00200, Kenya

Telephone: 254 20 273-4150 / 273-4153

Fax: 254 20 273-4170/ 273-4173Email:

ED’s Office: [email protected]:

[email protected]

73. Dr. Adolf Faustine MkendaSenior Lecturer, Department ofEconomics, University of Dar es SalaamTel: 255-22-2410252/661Mobile: 255 754 489275Fax: 255 22 2410252Email: [email protected]

74. Prof. Shyam NathProfessor of EconomicsDepartment of EconomicsUniversity of MauritiusReduit, MauritiusTel: 230 4541041Fax: 230 4656184Email: [email protected]@yahoo.co.uk

75. Mr. Jeffrey C. Fine16 Garand PlaceOttawa, Canada K 1 H 8 M1Tel: 1613 5264258Fax: 1613 5260286Email: [email protected]

76. Dr. Joseph T. KarugiaCoordinator, ReSAKSS, InternationalLivestock Research Institute (ILRI)PO Box 30709Nairobi 00100, KenyaTel: (020) 422 3000Fax: (020) 422 3001Email: [email protected]@cgiar.org

77. Jabavu Clifford Nkomo PhDSenior Programme SpecialistInternational Development ResearchCentre (IDRC)Climate Change Adaptation in Africa(CCAA), Eastern and Southern AfricaRegional OfficeLiaison HouseState House AvenuePO Box 62084Nairobi 00200, KenyaTel: 254 20 271-3160/1Email: [email protected]

AERC Secretariat

78. Prof. William LyakurwaExecutive Director

79. Prof. Olu AjakaiyeDirector of Research

80. Dr. Marios ObwonaDirector of Training

81. Dr. Damiano MandaManager, Thematic Research

82. Dr. Felix N’zuéManager, Collaborative Research

83. Jacqueline MacakiageManager, Resource Mobilization

84. Charles OwinoManager, Communications

85. Lydiah Kiraka-AumaPublications Administrator


31

ANNEX CSeminar Programme

Monday, 7 April09:00–10:40hrs Official Opening

Session Chair William Lyakurwa, Executive Director, AERCOpening Remarks: William LyakurwaWelcome: Lalla Ben Barka, Deputy Executive Director, UNECAKeynote Address: Louis Kasekende, Chief Economist, AfDBProgramme Overview: Olu Ajakaiye, Director of Research, AERC

10:40–11:00hrs Tea break

11:00–13:00hrs Climate Change and Economic Development – Issues,Challenges and Opportunities for Africa

Session Chair: William Lyakurwa, Executive Director, AERCPresenter: Richard Odingo, Vice Chair, Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC); Distinguished Professor ofHydrology, Department of Geography and EnvironmentalStudies, University of Nairobi

Floor Discussion

13:00–14:00hrs Lunch break

14:00–16:00hrs Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecuritySession Chair: Louis Kasekende, Chief Economist, AfDBPresenter: Mahendra Shah, Senior Scientist, International Institute for

Applied Systems Analysis, AustriaDiscussant: Shyam Nath, Professor of Economics, Department of

Economics, University of Mauritius

Floor Discussion


18:00hrs Opening Cocktail


32

Tuesday, 8 April09:00–10:40hrs Climate Change, Trade and Competitiveness

Session Chair: Ephraim Kamuntu, Minister for Tourism, Trade andIndustry, Uganda

Presenter : John Asafu-Adjaye, Associate Professor of Economics,University of Queensland, Australia

Discussants: Dominique Njinkeu, Executive Director, ILEAP, CanadaAdolf Mkenda, Senior Lecturer, University of Dar esSalaam, Tanzania

Floor Discussion

10:40–11.00hrs Tea break

11:00–13.00hrs Award-winning documentary: “An Inconvenient Truth”, byAl GoreFormer US Vice President Al Gore shared the 2007 Nobel PeacePrize with the IPCC for efforts to “change the world’sconsciousness” about the challenges of global warming

13:00–14:00 hrs Lunch break

14:00–16:00hrs Floor Discussion


16:15–17:00hrs Working Group Discussions

Wednesday, 9 April09:00–10:40hrs Climate Change and Economic Growth

Session Chair: Ouro-Djeri Essowe, Vice Minister, Environment, Tourismand Forest Resources, Togo

Presenter: Casey Brown, Associate Research Scientist, InternationalResearch Institute for Climate and Society, USA

Discussants: Edwin Muchapondwa, Senior Lecturer, School ofEconomics, University of Cape Town, South AfricaEphrahim Kamuntu, Minister for Tourism, Trade andIndustry, Uganda

Floor Discussion

10:40–11.00hrs Tea break

11:00–13:00hrs Working Group Discussions

13:00–14:00 hrs Lunch break

14.00–15.00hrs Presentation of Working Group Reports

15.00–15.30hrs Closing SessionWrap Up: Olu Ajakaiye, Director of Research, AERCClosing: William Lyakurwa, Executive Director, AERC

19:00 Closing Dinner


33

Working Group Sessions

Three main topics, in four regionalgroupings:1. Climate Change, Agriculture and

Food Security2. Climate Change, Trade and

Competitiveness3. Climate Change and Economic

Growth

Group A – Eastern AfricaChair: Peter Msolla – TanzaniaSecretary: David ObongAERC rapporteur: Charles OwinoHenry Igaga BidasalaOnesimus MuhweziJohnson OwaroBernard BashaashaErnest DebrahIsabella MasindeBuriani BatildaClifford Nkomo JabavuRobinson Kinuthia NgugiEphraim KamuntuAdolf MkendaJoseph KarugiaMahendra ShahSwai InvocavitPatrick NdakiJoseph S. QamaraJohn MungaiDavid Kahuria

Group B – West Africa – SahelRegion

Chair: Bah N’diaye – MaliSecretary: Doumbia IbrahimaAERC rapporteur: Felix N’zueAbdallah SambaOmar DiawAbdou Salam KaneFatima DentonMarcel Nwalozie

Moussa DialloAmadou DialloCisse SouleymaneAdamu Muhamma SaniAdamou IbrahimIbrahima Harouna

Group C – West Africa – ForestRegion & Central AfricaChair : Joseph Sam Sesay – Sierra

LeoneSecretary: Gregoire Mebada

MebadaAERC rapporteur: Jacqueline

MacakiageSesi AkoenoLaurence K. BroplehLekan OyebandeHaman UnusaJean-Christophe Bongou BazikaJoseph Gabriel MokimaMuta Kishimba RobertMuen Kabeya NtombiHippolyte NsimundeleDominique NjinkeuJohn Asafu-Adjaye

Group D – Southern AfricaChair: Vera Tembo Chiluba –

ZambiaSecretary: Shangula KalumbiAERC rapporteur: Damiano MandaChiseche MutaleAngela Katongo KabusweInnocent MatsheMuchapondwa EdwinBibi Ameenah RojoaYahya PathelYeti Nisha MadhooShyam NathLilia RabeharisoaLemao NteoCasey Brown


34


SPS X Report - Front - AERC · 2019-03-14 · documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, produced by...

Documents

Transcript of SPS X Report - Front - AERC · 2019-03-14 · documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, produced by...