Spring 2013 UNC AshevilleATMS/LSIC 179 Global Climate Change and China

Alex Huang, Atmospheric Sciences

Students will learn the science of global climate change and its impacts to China. The subjects include geography, climate zones, and historical climate of China. The environmental challenges of China in the modern century will be discussed.

Spring 2013 UNC AshevilleATMS/LSIC 179 Global Climate Change and China

• Global Climates• Climate Processes• Climate Global Climate Change• Future Global Climates • China• Impacts of Climate Change to China• China’s Strategy to Deal with Climate Change• Challenges

Republic of China (ROC)

People’s Republic of China (PRC)

http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/asia/cn.htm#.Ud6SDqyd6So

23 Provinces, 4 Municipalities, 5 Autonomous Regions and 2 Special Administrative Regions (SARs) of PRC.

One Time Zone in China;

It is UTC + 8 hours;

No daylight saving time in summer.

http://managingchina.blogspot.com/2009_01_01_archive.html

4 Municipalities

Shanghai, 22 million people (2010) Beijing, 18 million

Tianjin, 11 millionGuangzhou, 11 millionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

Topography of China

High mountains

Plateau

DesertArid/Steppe

Hills

Plains

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_100.78713E_35.63718N.jpg

Climates of China

http://www.voyagesphotosmanu.com/chinese_climate.html

http://www.harpercollege.edu/mhealy/geg101i/regions/easlecture/easlecture.htm

Climates of United States and China

Tendency of mean annual temperature in China from 1951 to 2001. (Ren Guoyu 2004).

Temperature Changes of the Past 50 Years in China

• China is under international pressure for actions• Climate change interrupts agriculture production• Climate change affects people’s lives and properties• Climate change hinders economic growth and

political stability

Why should China be concerned about climate change?

9,872 billion (ranked 2)

14,720 billion

World Total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) listed by United Nation in 2010

GDP per capita: 7,369 (ranked 123)GDP per capita: 49,000 (ranked 13)

Source: CIA World Factbooks

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC/countries/all?display=graph

5.817.3

7,687,114,0005,299,563,000

World CO2 Emission in 2009

World CO2 Emission per capita in 2009

Carbon Dioxide Emissions by China: 7.7 billion metric tons (ranked 1st in the world of 31.5 billion metric tons)

• China has to continue its rapid economic development• China has to maintain political stability• China has to mitigate the impacts of climate change• China has to reduce the dependency of coal• China has to upgrade its infrastructure of industry• China has to defend its international reputation

Why should China do about climate change?

Controlling carbon dioxide emissions without hindering economic development is a major challenge for China and the world (Zeng et al 2008).

The Bottom Line is

Goals:

• To reduce energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16 percent by 2015 from the level in 2011 (2% reduction in 2011).

• Cut CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 17 percent by 2015 (40% by 2020) compared to 2005 levels.

• Raise the proportion of non-fossil fuels in the overall primary energy mix to 11.4% by 2015 ( 8.6% in 2011).

China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Chang by the National development and Reform Commission, PRC (2012)

1. Mitigating Climate Change2. Adapting to Climate Change3. Promoting Low-Carbon Pilot Projects4. Strengthening Capacity Building5. Participation of the Whole Society6. Proactive Participation in International Negotiations7. Enhancing International Exchange and Cooperation

China’s Policies and Actions

(I) Adjusting Industrial Structure• Transformation and upgrading of

traditional industries• Supporting the development of

strategic and newly emerging industries• Vigorously developing the

(hi-tech) service industry• Speeding up the elimination of

backward (obsolete) production capacity

1. Mitigating Climate Change

Residential, 11%

Commercial, 4%

Industrial, 77%

Transportation, 8%

http://astrohow.org/energy/energy_breakdown.html

• Coal Consumption: 3.8 billion short tons (2011)(ranked 1st in the world)

• Oil Consumption: 9.8 million barrels per day (2011)(ranked 2nd in the world)

• Natural Gas Consumption: 3.8 trillion cubic feet (2011)(ranked 5th in the world)

http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=CH

Coal, 70% Hydroelectric, 6%

Oil, 19%

Natural gas, 4%

Nuclear, 1%

Other renewables, 0.3%

China total energy consumption: 2.5 Billion Metric Tons of Oil Equivalent (2011) (ranked 1st in the world)

http://www.climate-connect.co.uk/Home/?q=node/2170

Non-fossil fuels

Coal, 70%

China energy use per capita: 1,807 kg of oil equivalent per capita per year(2010) (ranked 61st in the world)

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE/countries/1W?display=default

Why should we take the blame?

http://astrohow.org/energy/energy_breakdown.html

Comparison of Energy Use in China and US

Transportation, 29%

Residential, 21% Commercial, 18%

Industrial, 32%

Residential, 11%

Commercial, 4%

Industrial, 77%

Transportation, 8%

United States

Data from Energy Information Administration

China

6. Proactive Participation in International Negotiations(III)China’s Basic Positions and Stand on Participation in

the Doha 2012 UN Climate Change Conference

•Addressing climate change is based on the principles of fairness and the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and own

capacities.”

•Developed countries should fulfill their promises to reduce emissions and provide support in terms of funding, technology transfer and capacity

building, and ensure that the already-established mechanisms and institutions start substantive work, and play a substantial role in offering support to developing countries in coping with climate change.

China recognizes the urgency and importance of the climate change issue and attempts to mitigate the impacts of climate change; however,

China is vast and the overhaul of infrastructure is a demanding challenge.

The Bottom Line is

Predictions of future atmospheric composition

Fig. 8.4 Atmospheric abundances of carbon dioxide for the four emissions families.

Feeding emission scenarios into a carbon-cycle model to estimate CO2 concentration

CO2 is responsible for 80% of the radiative forcing caused by the increase of greenhouse gases.

A2: high but uneven economic growth

A1: high but even economic growth/efficient technologies

B2: slow but uneven economic growth

B1: slow but even economic growth

USA

CHINA

New Supercritical and Ultra-Supercritical Coal-Fired Power Plants Installed Annually, by Capacity

http://www.china.usc.edu/

World, US, China Energy Consumption, 1990-2020

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/19/markets/global_energy_use/index.htm

Projected World Energy Mix in 2035

Coal, 27%

Oil, 19%

Natural gas, 24%

Nuclear, 7%

Other renewables, 14%