Spies, Lies and Sunken Subs

Jim Isaak

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The Sixties• JFK elected in 1960, assassinated 1963• Berlin wall raised 1961• Cuban Missile Crisis – Oct.1962 • Dasiy ad –’64 election• Vietnam war –

US Combat troops enter 1965• Movements: Free Speech,

Woman’s Rights, Anti-war, Hippie• Martin Luther King and RFK

assassinated,1968• Beatles (1960-1970)• Neil Armstrong steps on moon 21-July-1969

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Movie Time

Project Azorian

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Homework

Take a book and/or try some web research

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Books

1. White, Michael & Polmar, Norman: Project Azorian; 20102. Sewell, Kenneth; Red Star Rogue; 20053. Sharp, David; The CIA’s Greatest Covert operation; 2012 (Principal)4. Burleson, Clyde; The Jennifer Project; 19775. Collier, Wayne & Vamer, Roy; A Matter of Risk; 1978 (Principal)6. Craven, John Pina; The Silent War; 2001 (Principal)7. Sontag, Sherry & Drew, Christopher; Blind Man’s Bluff; 1998 (hard copy &

Paper back)8. Reed, Craig; Red November; 2011 (ref. to Sanders Assoc.)9. Offley, Ed; Scorpion Down; 2007 (hard copy, paper back)10. Sewell, Kenneth; All Hands Down; 200811. Vyborny, Lee & Davis, Don; Dark Waters; (NR1) 200312. Dunham, Roger; Spy Sub; 1996 (Halibut, “Viperfish”)13. Rule, Bruce; Why the USS Scorpion Was Lost; circa 2011

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Spies, Lies and Sunken Subs

Class 2Delving Deep

“Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free”

(John 8, and CIA motto)

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Azorian “Documentary”

• June 10, 1974 oval office tapes – final go/no go on Glomar Explorer (what meeting when)– (oops, Nixon flew to Austria that day!)

(Nixon Library visitor log http://www.nixonlibrary.gov/virtuallibrary/documents/PDD/1974/080%20June%201974.pdf )

• Hammer on sub in video• Bell transferred to Soviets• 9,000 vs 22,000 pictures from Halibut • Redaction in log entry of “Bel Hudson”?

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ReturnsJune 19After

Middle East tour

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Just for orientation

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Subs

• “Boomers” (Missile subs) are for strategic “MAD” defense• Attack subs, and some others, are spy subs – they can attack

shipping (WWI, WWII), or other subs; but also offshore monitoring of radio signals; wiretapping of undersea cables, photographing opponents latest devices – like subs – even in the opponents harbors.

• Most sub activities are secret – 30 year gag rule is normalsome are more secret

• Subs can land SEALS, spies, et al – and extract them• Most subs have a ~1000 ft limit; special systems like NR-1 may

go deeper; and of course Trieste, Alvin, et al can do this• The majority of the ocean is between 2000 & 20000 ft deep

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The Context

1967 Dec. – John Walker starts selling US Navy info to Soviets, starting with Codes used to communicate to/from US Subs (caught 1985)

1968 Jan 23– USS Pueblo (& KW-7) captured by North Korea (/Soviets)

1968 Mar. 11 1200Z – Soviet Sub K129 Sinks in North Pacific

1968 May 22 – US Sub Scorpion Sinks in the Atlantic

1968 Summer – USS Halibut locates & photographs K129

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K 129

1968 Mar. 11 1200Z – Soviet Sub K129 Sinks in North Pacific (local midnight)

1968 Summer – USS Halibut locates & photographs K129(“Red September” designation by CIA)

1969 Apr. – Project initiated to recover key parts of K1291972 – Glomar Explorer Launched –

CIA project under Hughes Summa Corporation cover: “Mining Manganese Nodules”

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K129

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Rendition of K129

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K129 Picture

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ActII

Glomar Explorer

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A Cover Story

• “For the first two hours, Ito’s detailed monologue described the Hughes empire and Summa’s plans for undersea mining…”

• “Next came an hour on the organizational structure of the independent drilling company, Global Marine…”

• “What you’ve heard about our plans in the last three hours is a complete lie … We are going to recover a sunken Russian

submarine and you are working for the CIA”Wayne Collier, Summa HR manager [5]

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Manganese Nodule

Documented as typically swag from Summa corporation

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Dated June 1974(xfer of ship to Hughes)

With misleading return address

Coin not mentioned in any of the Azorian books to the best of my knowledge

The Coin

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Glomar Explorer

1972 – Glomar Explorer Launched – CIA projectHughes Summa Corporation cover: “Mining Manganese Nodules”

1974 Aug – Part of K129 recovered from 16,500 Ft below ocean (July 10 – Aug 9)(Nixon resigned Aug 8)

30 years of limited revelations about these events – 1975 News break; 2001 -2012 series of related books

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Long baseline positioning

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“Captain, you are very young and inexperienced, but you will learn that there are some things that both sides have agreed not to address, and one is that event [USS Scorpion] and our K-129 loss, for similar reasons.”

Soviet Admiral Navoytsev to US Capt. Peter Huchthausen in 1987 [9]

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Assignment• Read one of the books

– What happened to the K129/Scorpion?– What was it doing at the time?

• Does this seem believable?• For given "facts", how solid are they?

Which are clearly well founded, which need confirmation?• How might you confirm specific information?• Are there obvious flaws in the source that might indicate other errors as well?

(Note: spelling, grammar, and such all affect perception and credibility)• What experience does the author/source have that might add credibility?• What interest might the author/source have that might undermine credibility?• How would the author/source "know" that?• Is the author holding back information or misleading in some area and

acknowledging it?

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Week 3

Test Depth

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Big Questions

• What are the questions we have?

• What related information would help us sort things out?

• What do we seem to know?

• Do we believe it?http://is.gd/7KYNYU

The Big QuestionWhy did K129 sink?

“The CIA will not permit me to publish any information I have relating to the cause of the loss. However, I can state that I find inconsistencies between every one of the hypotheses that have been presented by AZSORIAN authors and my own personal knowledge of the target’s condition and its contents. None of the proposed scenarios convincingly explain all of the existing data and facts relevant to the loss of the K-129”

“I don’t know what caused the loss of the K-129, but I believe there is a fairly strong likelihood that the truth, if exposed, could still be embarrassing to the governments of the United States and the Russian Federation. The list of people who actually know the cause of the K-129’s loss is very small – and that list is getting smaller every year. I suspect if I knew the truth, I would choose not to publish it.”

David Sharp, CIA Mission Director of Recovery Systems [3]

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SOSUS, AFTAC

• AFTAC info (from Project Azorian)

• Test explosions on June 9th to validate/calibrate

• Note: Soviet Subs work on Moscow Time this is 4PM

Station 1st Event 2nd Event

Midway 12:14:30 12:20:28

Adak (SOSUS) 12:18:56 12:24.55

Wake 12:30:12 12:36:10

Hawaii 12:33:22 12:39:20

Eniwetok 12:40:30 na

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Stories

• USS Swordfish collided with K129 (Soviet assertion)• USS Scorpion was sunk by Soviets in revenge for K129• K129 went rogue and was trying to launch an attack on Hawaii

perhaps as if they were a Chinese sub• Trieste II recovered an (outer space) alien from the K129 site in 1972• K129 materials provided to Soviets and China resulted in significant

changes in relations between the US and these countries• Glomar Explorer got more than reported front 20% of K129

• The “Glomar Response” – Freedom of Information Act response by CIA “We cannot confirm or deny that we have any records relevant to … but if we did they would be classified” (upheld in 1976)

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What might you hear?

Bayesian search theory used by Craven to identify area for Scorpion

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Toys & Tools

• USS Halibut – reconfigured forspecial ops

• Trieste II – Deep with devices for retrieval

• NR1

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Trieste

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Built 1953, US Navy acquired 1958

Decommissioned 1966

23 January 1960, - 35,797 ftChallenger Deep

Trieste II

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In service, Sept., 1969

Test depth 20,000+

Operated as if Trieste I for many years

DSRV

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Depth 5,000 ft

In service 1979

Can be loaded into cargo plane as well as piggyback with sub

NR1

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Length 150 Ft Launched Jan 1969Depth ??

Dual mission sub – research & military – under guise of “DSRV” programRickover’s baby

Possible NR2

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Youtube video asserts this US mini-sub was fireing a laser at Somali pirates circa 2011

Screen shot has many problems for a “real” picture

Ship appears to be 190 ft long or so

Rand report on NR2 is publicly availableImplication is that it was not built

Different Data• 11 plus non-crew were on K129 (typically KGB or GRU?)• US satellite detected a missile fuel explosion [2] on surface• U. Hawaii research vessel Teritu located radioactive oil slick off

leeward islands [8, 2]• Body near sub in Halibut pictures was wearing outdoor gear –

implies sub on surface at time of explosion [8, 6, 2, but variations in other books]

• K129 could launch R-21 missiles underwater, while moving, with a range of 900+ miles (1700 w/lighter load?)

• Chinese subs could launch R-13 Missiles, Thought to beSurface Launchat defined longitude/latitude pointswhile stationary with a range of 350 miles

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Spies, Lies and Sunken Subs

Getting to the bottom(It is not always a good idea)

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A Test

True or False?Explain …

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The Collision Assertion• If the USS Swordfish hit K129, why did it go to Japan for repairs rather

than Hawaii?• Conflicting stories of “entering Yokosuka harbor with veiled damage”

vs simply a bent periscope -- & picture in Asahi newspaper from March 17, 1968

• Boat logs provided to Soviets show sub in N. Japan Seaand that it surfaced under unexpected ice flow

• This is “still” the perspective of key Soviet military personsand Soviets may have decoded radio signals from the Swordfish

• Subs collide – Nov 1969 K19 collides with USS Gato– June 1970 K108 collides with SSN-639 Tautog– Feb 1992 K276 (SSN) hit by SSN 698 Baton Rouge “Tailing to close”– Mar 1993 K407 (SSBN) hit by SSN 646 Grailing “passing in front”– Aug 2000 Kursk sunk, indications that SSN- Memphis may have struck Kursk

Why might US or Soviets lie about this situation?What information would we need to sort it out?

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The Accident

If K129 had an onboard mishap, resulting in a fuel explosion of one or two of the missiles, it could sink the boat.

Clearly the US would cover up information until all chance of recovery and possible recovery had passed --- but why be concerned after that?

While the Soviets would be embarrassed – clearly they lost the sub in any case; why cover up or refuse to acknowledge an accident? – They have admitted other sub accidents.

What information would support/or discount this theory?

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Rogue AttackSuggested by Craven, thesis for Sewell“Published” Position of sub – 40n 180w appears too far for R21

missiles to reach Hawaii (but Midway?)Was status/location consistent with emulating Chinese attack?

(surface, long/lat, distance?)How does this theory align with the Russian and US agreement

to remain silent?

“But the secret hiding within the secret – the motivations of that Soviet captain and his crew – had remained in tact and that, ironically, is the secret that ought to be reveled” J Craven

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3-Way Cold War

1968 Nov. – Nixon Elected President high Sino-Soviet Tension

1969 Apr. – Project initiated to recover key parts of K129 (crypto, missiles, torpedoes, code books)

1969 Nov – SALT I Strategic Arms Limitation Talks Start

1971/72 – Kissinger, Nixon trips to China 1969 – Border fights

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Where?

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4 reported positions

Pearl Harbor

and theSoviet search

area

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Critical Thinking

• We know many of the things being said are not correct– Loose Lips Sink Ships– Great hooks to sell books– Governments hiding secrets/ embarrassments– Censorship of (or by) knowledgeable authors

• So what tools do we have to sift the facts from the noise? What are they missing pieces? What questions might we ask and/or research to resolve key points?

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Some observations• Soviet decode(?) of KW-7 might have disclosed a US sub collision in ‘real time’ – from Swordfish or

other sub• Russia knows what is at 40n 180w by now (has submersibles, etc.)• Actual site has “legs” from Clementine (Claw), and residual sub• Thousands of pictures of K129 exist, most still restricted (Halibut in 68 “Velvet Fist”, Operation

Sand Dollar, Trieste II?, returns of Halibut, et al; Glomar 2, Glomar Explorer, ----post 1974???)• Craven given the Distinguished Civilian Service Award (DoD’s highest),

“I have never seen the citation”• Key Craven assertion – US strategy in many cases has been to convince the Soviet leader that he

was not in control of his armed forces & recovery was intended to be “in Soviet view”• Sewell suggests data was given to both Soviets and China

– facilitating improved relations with each• Howard Hughes was likely a major campaign contributor to Nixon’s Election

a half billion dollar project directed his way may have had political vs military incentives

• Robert Ballard visited Scorpion site in 1985 along with the discovery of the Titanic in NR-1 (a dual purpose operation)

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Resources

1. White, Michael & Polmar, Norman: Project Azorian; 2010 book & PBS show

2. Sewell, Kenneth; Red Star Rogue; 20053. Sharp, David; The CIA’s Greatest Covert operation; 2012 (Principal)

Appendix A: Perception Management and Disinformation4. Burleson, Clyde; The Jennifer Project; 19775. Collier, Wayne & Vamer, Roy; A Matter of Risk; 1978 (Principal)6. Craven, John Pina; The Silent War; 2001 (Principal)7. Sontag, Sherry & Drew, Christopher; Blind Man’s Bluff; 19988. Reed, Craig; Red November; 2011 (ref. to Sanders Assoc.)9. Offley, Ed; Scorpion Down; 200710. Sewell, Kenneth; All Hands Down; 2008

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1962

Subs and the Cuban Missile Crisis

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Cuban Missile Range

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Flash back to 1962

• 1960 Dec.- Soviets start using burst sub transmissions• 1961 US SOSUS network established UK to Iceland• 1962 May – Polaris missile launch success• 1962 Fall – Soviet Union installs nuclear missiles in Cuba• 4 Soviet Diesel subs, each with one nuclear torpedo, approach

Cuba – in theory to start sub base there• 1962 Oct 25 – Sanders suggests simulated burst transmissions• 1962 Oct. US Blockade – brinksmanship situation

– Soviet ships turn back– All four Soviet Subs forced to surface & retreat (one pulled a fast

escape)– All four subs seriously considered firing their nuclear torpedoes

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Oct 14 Foxtrots to Cuba

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With Nuclear Torpedoes – 2 “special weapons” each

The Burst Problem

Short – difficult to detect, but could once nature was identified

Encoded – hard to analyzeShort – limited time to “triangulate” => 10 MileBut … Saunders Associate Nashua contribution

Send a similar signal from a known ship near the sub -- & correct for variations

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Foxtrot locationsB-59 is at top

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• Oct 24, 1962 US directive to Soviets:– Will drop 4-5 harmless explosives– Subs should surface on Easterly course

• Soviet Sub commanders didn’t get “the memo”

• Red November (Reed) suggests that all four considered firing nuclear torpedoes

• “Man who saved the world” suggests at least one

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1 minute to midnight

Soviet sub B-59, commanded by Valentin Savitsky

October 27, 1962“Ok” from Political

OfficerBlocked by Deputy

Brigade Commander Archipov

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Post mortum

• 1963 June 20 -- Red phone agreement – US/Soviet leaders

• 1964 Khrushchev leaves office• 1964 first China nuclear device test• 2001 March - meeting of principles in Havana

disclosed that tactical and some medium range nukes could/would have been used(McNamara, Castro, Soviet folks, etc.)

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Resources– http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB75/ Subs of

October (GWU National Security Archive)– PBS “The Man Who Saved the World” 2012– http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB399/

Update 2012 – McNamara World Affairs Council on FORATV

• http://fora.tv/2005/03/09/Robert_McNamara • Fog of War video http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=afVzS742enE

– Peter Huchthausen, October Fury; New York: John Wiley & Sons. Inc., 2002

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