Specialty Markets & More-than-Moore (MtM) …...Global Wafer Capacity Forecast –200mm/300mm...

Specialty Markets & More-than-Moore

(MtM) Technologies

Llew Vaughan-Edmunds

Director of Strategic Marketing – Power

SEMICON Europe

Munich, Nov. 2019

2

Global Wafer Capacity Forecast – 200mm/300mm

▪ External sources all show 200mm and 300mm capacity growth from 2017 through 2021

* Actual production capacity is lower than Installed Capacity shown – due to Uptime / Utilization and

capacity consumed through Breakage and R&D)

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.7

5.86.0 6.0

5.0 5.2

5.4

5.65.9

6.1

6.3

6.4

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Waf

er

Cap

acit

y (M

wsp

m)

Years

200mm SEMI Capacity Forecast

200mm SEMI Fab Outlook June'18 CAGR 17-21 ~2.6%

200mm SEMI Fab Outlook Jan'19 CAGR 17-21 ~4%

200mm Capacity Demand Shows No Signs of

Slowing – 500K wspm Incr. by 2022

300mm Capacity Demand Shows A

1.2M wspm Incr. by 2023

Changes are happening rapidly – within 6

months SEMI revised its 200mm capacity

forecast up 400K wspm !4…

4.3

4.7

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.7

6.0

6.4

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Waf

er C

apac

ity

(M w

spm

)

Years

300mm SEMI Capacity Forecast

300mm SEMI Fab Outlook Aug'19 CAGR 18-20 ~3.5%

| Applied Materials Confidential

www

3

Semiconductor Market Evolution

PC + Internet

Mobile +

Social Media

Artificial Intelligence

+ Visual Computing

VR / AR

IoT / Smart devices

Big Data

AI / Machine learning

Smart vehicles

Industry 4.0

Additive manufacturing

* 2000 – 2009 ** 2010 – 2016

2000 2010 2016

Av. WFE = $25.5B* Av. WFE = $32.3B** Av. WFE =

External Use


Global Semiconductor Market Outlook

4

► Smart Phone: Chip content increase - driving both new technologies and capacity adds

► Automotive: ADAS, Electrification, Telematics (4G/5G), Infotainment are key factors

► Datacenter/Server: IoT / Increased ‘Cloud’ and ‘AI’ presence - onset of photonic technology inflection

► Communication Infrastructure: 4G/5G transition and 5G preparation at Base Station, Handset and Repeater

► Industrial: Industry 4.0, Building Automation and Control, Robotics & Drones for industrial applications

► Consumer: IoT, Wireless Charging, Virtual & Augmented Reality (VR/AR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), Drones & Robotics,

Smartphones$118B, 25%2% CAGR

PC$53B, 11%-1% CAGR

Tablets$10B, 2%

-4% CAGR

Consumer Electronics$47B, 10%4% CAGR

Industrial$47B, 10%12% CAGR

Storage$30B, 6%13% YoY

Server$48B, 10%9% CAGR

Automotive$43B, 9%

10% CAGR

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Mkt Size ($B)

CAGR '17-'22 (%)

2018 End Markets - Market Size ($477B)~13% YoY Growth CAGR’17-’22 (~5%)

Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018) Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018) Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018) Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018) Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018) Source: Gartner Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide Revenue- by Semiconductor Device (Dec 2018)


Key Segments driving new Technology Inflections

5

IoT Communications Automotive Power Sensors

Smart home

Industry 4.0

Smart transportation

Building and

automation / control

Security and video

surveillance

Mobile / smartphone

5G infrastructure

Increased data /

video demand

Silicon photonics

V2X communications

AR / VR

Autonomous vehicles

Infotainment and

telemetry

Electric vehicle /

Hybrid electric vehicle

Faster battery charge

Datacenters

Renewable energies

Consumer and

appliances

Emissions regulations

Higher efficiency

systems

Smaller system solutions

Wearable

technologies

Voice and touch

interfaces

Gesture recognition

Facial recognition


IC Content Is Growing Rapidly in Automotive

6Source: Infineon, 2018

▪ While semiconductor content increases overall, Power technologies continue to take the majority

share of total BOM Cost

60% of total

semi content


Tesla Powertrain and evolution to SiC

7

Model S/X Power Switches (pcs)

Front Rear

100D 96 (IGBT) 96 (IGBT)

85D,90D 36 (IGBT) 96 (IGBT)

70D 36 (IGBT) 36 (IGBT)

70, 75 96 (IGBT)

Model 3 Power Switches (pcs)

Front Rear

200 miles ($35k) 24 (IGBT)

220 miles 24 (SiC)

320 miles DUAL 24 (IGBT) 24 (SiC)

320 miles RWD 24 (SiC)

X8 per switch

(2 SiC MOSFET)

Source: Tesla, Systems Plus

X16 per switch

(1 IGBT + 1 Si Diode)


Disruptive Technology – Wide Band Gap

8

10x higher dielectric breakdown field strength

2x higher electron saturation velocity

3x higher energy bandgap

3x higher thermal conductivity

Source: Toyota

60% reduction

in size

Silicon SiCGeranium Silicon Gallium Arsenide SiC

GaN Diamond

0.7Ban

dg

ap

En

erg

y (

eV

)

1.4

3.3 3.4

5.5

Wide band

gap

1.1

GaN

Silicon

50% reduction

in sizeLower Power Losses

Faster switching

Lower leakage

Runs cooler


Delivering Inflection Solutions on 200mm/300mm Tools

9

▪ Smartphone / Tablet, Automotive and Wearables will drive MtM device unit growth and new

technology requirement for the next 5+ years

Automotive

(Body, Engine, Infotainment, ADAS)

Wearables

(Fitness, Garments)Smartphones & Tablets

End Use Application(s)

Segments with >70%

MtM Content

Key inflections in high growth application segments drive requirements for new

materials, unit process and CMOS integration

Adv. CMOS Compatible Films

(PECVD SiGe for MEMS)Ultra Uniform AlN Films

(MEMS RF Filters)

Adv. Epi Technologies

(Power Switching)

Adv. Etch Solutions

(Packaging, Power)Adv. Metal Deposition

(Power Technologies)


Supporting the MtM IDM Evolution

10

Vo

lum

e

Customer needs

specific requirements

Maturity

Customer needs

more tools

Customer needs

better performance

Customer wants

to go to 300mm



11

Vo

lum

e

Customer needs

specific requirements

Maturity

Create new processes & utilize

existing technologies


Applied Materials Products & Technology Portfolio

12

150 / 200 / 300mm Wafer Fab Equipment for Silicon and Compound Semiconductors

Spatial ALD

Radical Enhanced ALD

ALD Funnel

Thermal CVD

Thermal CVD w Plasma

A B

METAL

CVD/ALD

Radical Enhanced

Plasma

CCP Plasma

ICP Plasma

Chemical Clean

DRY

CLEANS

Standard

Dual Mode

DEGAS

CCP Etch

ICP Etch

Radical Enhanced

Mask Etch

ETCH

Next Gen RP Epi

RP Epi

ATM Epi

EPI

DualDamascene

Packaging Plating

PLATING

Spatial ALD

A B

ALD funnel

Thermal CVD

Radical Enhanced CVD

HD Plasma CVD

Plasma Enhanced CVD

DIELECTRIC

CVD/ALD

Mask Blank Cleans

CMP Pre-Clean

Brush Box

IPA MarangoniSRD

WET

CLEANS

Triple Platens

Dual Platen

POLISHING

Laser Anneal

ATM Thermal

Backside Thermal

Laser Anneal

UV Cure

ANNEALS

RP Thermal

Decoupled Plasma

NITRIDATION/

OXIDATION

Plasma Doping

Medium Current

High Current

High Energy

IMPLANT

eBeamReview

eBeamMetrology

eBeamInspection

Optical Mask Inspection

Optical Wafer Inspection

METROLOGY/

INSPECTION

300mm≤200mm

& 300mm

RF PVD

MC PVD

DC PVD

Ionized PVD

Pulsed DC

PVD

BROADEST

DE

EP

ES

T


Advanced Deep Reactive Ion Etch (DRIE)

13

New Etch Processes for

SiC and GaN Applications

GaN Etch SiC Etch

DPS-DTM

(≤200mm)

DPS II – Silvia / Silvia-N

(200mm/300mm)

Transitioning MTM Technologies to

200mm/300mm Capable Tools

High Aspect Ratio

(>110:1)

Sub-Micron CD

(<< 200nm)

High Etch Rate

(>25µ/min)

DRIE for Power, MEMS and Packaging Technologies



14

Vo

lum

e

Maturity

Customer needs

more tools

Equipment Availability and Pricing


Refurbished vs. New Tool Builds

15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

50

100

150

200

250#

of

Syst

em

s

Year

New Mainframe Builds

Core Refurb

% of New Mainframe Builds

Used content %

▪ For both 200mm and 300mm MTM percentage of new tools is increasing adding both pricing

challenges AND parts supply issues for older tools

%


150mm/200mm Core Market ASP Trends

16

Mirra Mesa

Mirra Stand Alone

Producer Split

Centura DxZ

CII DPS+ Metal Etch

CII Oxide Etch

TPCC Xe+ (3 CH)

Endura iLB

Endura PVD / Al

Ave

rag

e S

ale

s P

rice (

AS

P)

Revenue Quarters

Product 1

Product 2

Product 3

Product 4

Product 5

Product 6

Product 7

Product 8

Product 9

▪ Specific tool or chamber types are facing ASP pressure through requirement to build new due to

either open market core availability or obsolescence issues



17

Vo

lum

e

Maturity

Migrate engineering processes

from 300mm

Customer needs

better performance


Migrating 300mm processing to 200mm

18

▪ Software & GUI: Latest Common Ground Architecture (CGA) software with

advanced sequencing and tool control. Fast data collection via Fast Data Gateways

▪ Faster servers with more memory to improve system performance and decision

making

▪ Improved Control systems: faster, higher accuracy & more reliable components

and communication with devices (e.g. EtherCat)

| Applied Materials Confidential19

IoT Enabled Manufacturing

MEMS based IoT being used for predictive maintenance and fault detection

Accelerometer Used in CMP Head To Detect

Slurry Arm Impact During Process

Detection of Mechanical Malfunction examples:

• Slurry Arm and Head collision

• Head Wear out (seals, gimbal, other)

• Faulty Bearings

• PC Conditioner Head actuations



20

Vo

lum

e

Maturity

Scalability from 200mm to 300mm

Customer wants

to go to 300mm


200mm/300mm PVD Transition For Thick Aluminum

21

▪ The key challenge is to transition high power density and wafer cooling technologies to

enable high deposition rate for thick single run films

200mm HDR Al300mm Alexandria


200-300mm High Growth Rate Epi-Silicon

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Thickness Profile (nu. <0 .7%)Growth Rate Profile

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0 10 20 30Gro

wth

Rate

(u

m/m

in)

TCS Flow (slm)

STD Chamber GR (um/min) HGR GR (um/min)

95

969798

99100101

102103104

105

-100 -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 100

Th

ick

ne

ss

Distance from center [mm]

Y Axis X Axis

HGR Epi Chamber

▪ Transferring a high growth rate to larger diameter wafers requires new engineering and

process techniques


Summary

▪ MtM technologies are growing significantly, driven by new specialty markets

▪ Applied Materials is focused on supporting these new technologies

▪ Exceeding customer specific requirements, by utilizing our 300mm technologies

▪ Offering a solid supply chain in both refurbished, new tools, and servicing

▪ Improving performance of existing tools, by migrating engineering from 300mm

▪ Scaling processes from 200mm to 300mm, allows customers to increase productivity

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Our Innovations Make Possible the Technology Shaping the Future

Specialty Markets & More-than-Moore (MtM) …...Global Wafer Capacity Forecast –200mm/300mm...

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