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Introduction“The future ain’t what it used to be.” Famous

words from philosopher and National Baseball Hall ofFamer, Yogi Berra. While his words are applicable indescribing most situations, they are particularly rele-vant to this topic—future operational ocean forecastingin the U.S. Navy. To appreciate Berra’s quote in thiscontext, it is important to understand that operationaloceanographic forecasting is a compromise betweenthe scientifically possible and the operationally neces-sary and practical. Research and Development (R&D)advances provide the push of higher resolution andmore sophisticated, physics-based, numerical modelsand prediction techniques. Meanwhile, the operationalpull for accurate, rapid, and long-range, oceanograph-ic products, based firmly on sound Navy requirements,is constrained by the personnel, communications capa-bilities, and computational resources available toaccomplish the mission. This tension between R&Dand operations likewise arises in the transitions ofocean observation systems, ocean products, and visu-alization systems. Numerous factors such as missionchanges or technological breakthroughs can impactR&D programs and operational plans over time. Notethat predictions made 10 years ago (Peloquin, 1992),regarding future operational ocean forecasts, could notanticipate the breadth of today’s web connectivity anddistributed computing.

This article first presents an overview of the cur-rent Department of Defense’s (DOD), U.S. Navy’s, andOceanographer of the Navy’s missions and require-ments, to provide the reader with some rationalebehind today’s plans for operational oceanographicsupport. Next, a review of the support since 1992 up tothe present provides the reader with an understandingof the enormous R&D and operational successes dur-ing the last ten years. Finally, a discussion of the future

Overview of Operational Ocean Forecasting in the U.S. Navy: Past, Present & FutureWilliam BurnettNaval Meteorology and Oceanography Command • Stennis Space Center, Mississippi USA

John Harding Naval Research Laboratory • Stennis Space Center, Mississippi USA

George HeburnMississippi State University • Stennis Space Center, Mississippi USA

operational capabilities is provided. Each subsequentsection revolves around the central issues that concernoperational oceanographic prediction: computers andcommunication; ocean data assimilation and modelingtechniques; and ocean applications.

What Drives the Navy’s Mission?The future employment of the nation’s armed

forces is conceptually described in documents such asthe “National Military Strategy1,” “Joint Vision 20102,”“Joint Vision 20203,” and, most recently, the second edi-tion of the Chief of Naval Operation’s “Navy StrategicPlanning Guidance With Long Range PlanningObjectives4.” These documents prioritize a set of capa-bilities that determine DOD’s planning and budgetprocess. The National Military Strategy contains threecomponents for how forces: 1) engage in peacetimeoperations, 2) deter and prevent conflict, and 3) fightand win wars. The Navy executes this strategy throughoverseas presence and power projection from the sea tothe land. Operational oceanographic support must sup-port these objectives.

The National Military Strategy also requires that theUnited States remains the pre-eminent military force inthe world. This standing largely depends uponadvances in technology, especially in InformationTechnology (IT), leading to information superiority.Future Naval oceanographic support must use ITadvances to rapidly collect, quality control, and dissem-inate oceanographic observations and forecasts, in nearreal-time, to on-scene Fleet personnel, mission planningsystems, and even weapon platforms. While the Navaloceanographic community already supports the Fleet inthe manner described above; i.e. creating forecast prod-ucts at the U.S. based Production Centers, enhancingand tailoring data at theater Regional Centers, and for-

SPECIAL ISSUE – NAVY OPERATIONAL MODELS: TEN YEARS LATER

1http://www.dtic.mil/jcs/nms/2http://www.dtic.mil/jv2010/jvpub.htm3http://www.dtic.mil/jv2020/4http://www.hq.navy.mil/cno/n8/n80/PPBS/NSPG.pdf

This article has been published in Oceanography, Volume 15, Number 1, a quarterly journal of The Oceanography Society. Copyright 2001 by The Oceanography Society. Allrights reserved. Reproduction of any portion of this article by photocopy machine, reposting, or other means without prior authorization of The Oceanography Society is strictlyprohibited. Send all correspondence to: info@tos.org, or 5912 LeMay Road, Rockville, MD 20851-2326, USA.

5Oceanography • Vol. 15 • No. 1/2002

sible for interpreting the Navy’s policy and vision rela-tive to ocean prediction, understanding ONR’s andNRL’s R&D possibilities, and coalescing them into anoperational program that meet the Fleet’s require-ments. This is accomplished with the support of theSpace and Naval Warfare Systems Command(SPAWAR) Meteorology and Oceanography ProgramOffice. The Oceanographer works with ONR andSPAWAR to ensure that R&D performed for opera-tional support meets the Navy’s mission. TheOceanographer developed a visionary roadmap titled“Strategy for Research and Development5” for opera-tional oceanography which states that all R&D spon-sored by The Oceanographer will be in direct supportof the Navy’s mission as established by formal navaldoctrine and policy. It is important to remember that allR&D investments and future naval operational oceano-graphic support must be translatable into impacts andrecommendations tied directly to Navy missions.

ONR’s and The Oceanographer’s current require-ments and R&D investments in operational ocean pre-diction focus on three key areas: 1) Data—the Navy willrapidly collect accurate oceanographic observationson-scene and via remotely-sensed systems, 2)Information—the Navy will rapidly assimilate and

warding the information to the Fleet (Figure 1); theNavy believes future IT advances will further increasethe amount of products produced at sea.

The Office of Naval Research (ONR) performs a keyrole in making the Navy’s future vision today’s realityby tailoring new science and technology to meet Fleetrequirements. ONR’s Ocean Modeling and PredictionProgram (Curtin and Harding, 1999) supports researchin and development of new ocean forecast systems overa hierarchy of scales from the global scale to the surfzone. In ocean prediction, the Naval ResearchLaboratory (NRL) merges the potential of R&D to thereality of Fleet operations, with the support of ONR,through collaborations with ONR-supported Universityresearchers, and by teamed transitions with the Navaloperational oceanographic community. NRL conductsbasic and applied ocean R&D focused on understandingoceanic processes via the combination of models,remotely sensed data, and in situ data. From these stud-ies, real-time model/data combinations are developedand applied to the numerical prediction of coastal oceanconditions including temperature, salinity, currents,tides, waves, and surf (Harding et al., 1999a).

The Oceanographer of the Navy, CNO (N096)—(referred to hereafter as The Oceanographer), is respon-5http://oceanographer.navy.mil

Figure 1. The Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command’s operational oceanography support structure. Two ProductionCenters (red stars) have responsibility for oceanographic data acquisition, assimilation and application. Regional Meteorologyand Oceanography (METOC) Centers (yellow triangles), Facilities (green upside down triangles), and Detachments (orangecircles) provide expert advice, products, and recommendations concerning theater or local oceanographic impacts and forecasts.Mobile Environmental Teams are small (1-3 person) components that augment ships without on-board oceanographic capabil-ities.

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analyze all oceanographic data to create a 4-dimen-sional characterization of the ocean environment at thehighest resolutions capable—both on-scene and at theProduction Centers and the Regional Centers, and 3)Knowledge—the Navy will provide products andservices that not only characterize and predict theocean environment, but also describe the ocean envi-ronment’s effect on people, marine life, weapons, sensors, and platforms. Carrying out The Oceano-grapher’s operational guidance, the Commander,Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command’s(CNMOC) mission is to operationally collect, interpret,and apply the global oceanographic data, information,and knowledge to ensure safety at sea and increase theeffectiveness of the Fleet in peacetime and in time of conflict. The next section will describe the CNMOC concept of operations based on the Navy’snew littoral mission.

Concept of OperationsThe current CNMOC Concept of Operations

(CONOPS) for operational oceanographic supportevolved during and after the Cold War. The goal is tomaintain the capability for, in the words of the military,“peacetime forward presence, crisis response, andregional conflict, with emphasis on flexibility, mobility,and interoperability.” Operational oceanographic focushas moved, since the Cold War, from the deep ocean tothe shallow water environment—the coastal seas andhinterland. The Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW)emphasis of the Cold War has shifted toward littoralwarfare concerns (Kelso et al., 1992; Dalton et al., 1994).

During the 1991 Gulf War, oceanographic productsand forecasts such as drifting mines and oil dispersion,wave, thermal structure, and circulation ocean modelswere produced at the Production Centers. TheRegional Centers produced ASW and tactical oceano-graphic summaries, based on the Production Center’sproducts, and tailored information for specific Fleetneeds. Staff oceanographers, who directly support theFleet/Battle Commanders and joint forces, wouldprocess this information to determine what effects theoceanographic environment would have on their Fleetassets. Similarly, small (1–3 person) component MobileEnvironmental Teams would augment ships withoutan on-board oceanographic department and supportthe ship using information provided by the RegionalCenters. Fleet decisions would be made based on theavailable information disseminated to the warfighter.This CONOPS was required since: (1) communicationsbetween ship and shore were of low-band width, and(2) computational processing power resided at thelarge Production Centers and not on the ship, nor forthat matter at the Regional Centers.

This CONOPS and changes to future CONOPS arebest understood in the context of the military decisionprocess. Military decisions are based on theObservation, Orientation, Decision, Action (OODA)loop. In the past, the OODA loop included the deci-

sion-makers located in the Continental United States(CONUS). Observations and data streams were usuallytoo large to be handled in the battlefield, and had to berelayed and processed in CONUS. Thus, the OODAloop took a long time to complete.

The goal is to minimize the military OODA loop.Remotely-sensed and in situ observations of the battle-field—for example, from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAV) or Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV)—will go directly to decision makers in the field. Thisdata stream might be too large and too perishable tosend back to CONUS, so the “orient, decide, and act”aspects of the loop will stay within the battlefield. Anyopportunity for the operational oceanographer to influ-ence and support the OODA loop will reside at the bat-tlefield level, and the future CNMOC CONOPS willaddress this type of support.

CNMOC’s future CONOPS synthesizes the Navy’sfuture mission, the Oceanographer’s R&D strategy, andthe changing IT landscape (Figure 2). The name for thisCONOPS is “NETCENTRIC Support” which reflectsthe OODA structure, while taking on a more networkor web-like configuration. Current Navy exercises andoperations are pointing to a future where network con-nectivity, communication bandwidth and computation-al processing power available to a battle group could bequite large. This fact is not only true for the ships, butalso for the Regional and Production Centers that willhave ever increasing connectivity to the warfighter.Therefore, the CNMOC CONOPS must flexibly addresswhat military operations look like today as well as inthe future, and how the operational oceanography com-munity will support the Fleet based on changing mili-tary capabilities (Matthews and Willis, 2000).

The Past Ten YearsRather than duplicate detailed descriptions of

available ocean forecasting capabilities over the pastten years (refer to Harding et al., 1996, for furtherdetails), this section relates more to changes in technol-ogy and conceptual approaches that have driven pres-ent day ocean predictions.

In 1992, ONR’s Robert Peloquin stated, “The futuredirection of ocean prediction certainly depends oncomputational capabilities and our ability to efficientlyaccess and use new high-speed computers.” (Peloquin,1992). The promise of operational oceanography cameto lie in the capabilities of large computational systemslike the newly installed Naval Oceanographic Office’s(NAVOCEANO) CRAY C-90 supercomputer. Theoceanographic community justified the need for thenew supercomputer by proposing that R&D and oper-ational numerical modelers share the system to ensurenew oceanographic models are rapidly transitioned to operations.

However, something interesting happened in 1995.The DOD recognized the need for large computationalcenters, transcending in capability anything that couldbe reached by the individual services, where R&D

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Center, MS. To support theater operations in the Pacificand the Mediterranean, NRL developed the ModularOceanographic Data Assimilation System (MODAS),which ran on a high-end UNIX© desktop computer,ingested in situ oceanographic data, and assimilatedthe data into a background oceanographic field (e.g. a3-dimensional temperature field of the MediterraneanSea) to create a new oceanographic field (Rhodes et al.,1995). The interesting aspect of MODAS was that thesystem could be located at the theater Regional Center,at a Production Center or, more importantly, linked vianetwork where the Regional Center could incorporatethe additional information available from theProduction Center. Thus, the Naval oceanographiccommunity took the advantage of increasing computerprocessing power and networked communications(still at a low-baud rate of 36K) to shrink the oceano-graphic OODA loop to the theater level; a concept thatwas not yet realized by the overall Naval community

could obtain enormous computational power, and sothe DOD Major Shared Resource Centers (MSRC) werecreated. One MSRC was located at NAVOCEANO,with a focus primarily on climate, weather, ocean, andfluid dynamics. The MSRC provided R&D with the lat-est and most powerful computer systems available totest and evaluate large domain ocean models with dif-ferent horizontal and vertical resolutions (Hurlburtand Hogan, 1998). Peloquin (1992) also correctly pre-dicted that ocean prediction systems having 10 km hor-izontal resolution and 40 vertical levels, with completethermodynamics and data assimilation schemes,would require processors with speeds approaching theteraflop range (1 trillion floating point operations persecond). Yet the NAVOCEANO MSRC would not real-ize this computing power for another 5 years.

In the early to mid-1990s a new “concept” for net-work-supported, distributed, ocean prediction evolvedat NRL’s Oceanography Division at Stennis Space

Figure 2. The Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop for the atmospheric and oceanographic community. Global oceanmodels at NAVOCEANO and FNMOC provide initial and boundary conditions to the Regional Center’s models. TheRegional Center’s models feed boundary conditions to the on-scene models. These “Nowcast” models fuse on-scene data withmodel forecasts to create an environmental battlespace awareness cube for the warfighter, and aid in reducing the oceano-graphic OODA loop.

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evolution of operational and near-operational Navalocean prediction capabilities. Operational global atmos-pheric predictions, necessary for forcing the large-scaleocean wave and circulation models, have increased insophistication and resolution (Rosmond et al., thisissue). Regional atmospheric predictions have increasedin capability to become useful in providing input tohigh-resolution coastal ocean predictions even to thepoint where coupled ocean-atmosphere models areadvancing quickly in research and development(Hodur et al., this issue). High-resolution, operationallittoral wave, surf, tide, and ocean dynamic predictionsare now available to the warfighter (Allard et al., Blainet al., Fox et al.; all this issue). Larger scale oceano-graphic models for waves, ice, and ocean dynamicshave also increased in sophistication and resolution tak-ing advantage of available high performance comput-ing capabilities (Jensen et al., Preller et al., Rhodes et al.;all this issue)

This section continues by describing the technologyand programs that have driven the development oftoday’s capabilities. The Navy’s two ProductionCenters, The Fleet Numerical Meteorology andOceanography Center (FNMOC)6 and NAVOCEANO7

require ocean modeling systems to support their specif-ic models and products (Harding et al., 1996). TheseProduction Centers recently addressed the issue ofoperational ocean modeling, including the new aspectof operating distributed ocean models at the RegionalCenters, with an updated ocean modeling CONOPS.FNMOC now concentrates on operating atmosphericand tightly coupled ocean-atmosphere models primari-ly designed to improve atmospheric predictions. NAV-OCEANO concentrates on transitioning and operatingfully 3-D data assimilative oceanographic forecast mod-els. While, the Regional Centers operate theater oceanmodels for direct tactical support, typically with sup-port and guidance from the two Production Centers.

Computers and communication capabilities contin-ued to increase in the latter part of the 20th Century. Notonly are Regional Centers operating ocean data assimi-lation systems such as MODAS, but they are now run-ning very sophisticated, limited-area, mesoscale, atmos-pheric prediction models (Hodur, 1997), thus shrinkingthe atmospheric OODA loop as well. At the same time,the NAVOCEANO MSRC reached the two teraflopplateau in 2000. This, combined with the real-time oper-ational altimetry processing (Jacobs et al., this issue),has allowed NAVOCEANO to bring on-line the firstoperational, altimetry-assimilating, eddy-resolving,global dynamic ocean model—at 1⁄16

° horizontal resolu-tion and 6 vertical layers (Figure 3) with near-termplans to increase to 1⁄32

° (Rhodes et al., this issue).Similarly, regional coastal circulation prediction sys-tems, available in the last decade, are now able toincrease their resolutions to more tactically relevant

The idea of distributing ocean data assimilation sys-tems did not to stop at the Regional Centers. While theocean modeling CONOPS states that NAVOCEANOgenerates basin-scale oceanographic fields and theRegional Centers generate tactical oceanographic fieldsfor Fleet support, there was a problem in supporting thesubmarine community. In 1998 the submarine commu-nity requested MODAS systems for their own platformssince submarines could not pass their classified operat-ing areas to the Centers. These “MODAS-Lite” systemshad reduced capability relative to those at the RegionalCenters, yet conceptually, the oceanographic OODAloop had now shrunk to the Fleet level.

Remotely-sensed data collection capabilities didincrease during the past ten years with altimetry andsea-surface temperature data becoming critical inputsto ocean systems such as MODAS. In 1992, oceanogra-phers relied on polar orbiting satellites like theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’sAdvanced Very High Resolution Radiometers(AVHRR) to analyze ocean features. It had been sever-al years since the Navy’s Geodetic Satellite (GEOSAT)had carried a satellite altimeter capable of detectingand measuring the ocean’s surface height and the nextNavy altimeter was 8 years away from launch. Thus,the Navy relied on NASA or foreign launched altime-ters. In the middle to late 1990s, two other satellite sys-tems were deployed that provided oceanographerswith additional information: (1) a commercial oceancolor detection satellite, and (2) scatterometer satellitescapable of measuring the wind stress on the ocean.

While data assimilation, modeling, and remotely-sensed data (e.g. altimetry and sea-surface temperature)capabilities increased during the past ten years, in situoceanographic data collection capabilities did notchange significantly. The Fleet was still required to takeoceanographic observations, primarily with expendablebathythermographs, every six hours, and to pass thatinformation to the Production and Regional Centers. In1995, NAVOCEANO developed a new class of surveyships that were able to collect an enormous wealth ofbathymetry and oceanographic information using newcapabilities such as the Integrated Survey System-60(ISS-60), however the data tended to overwhelmNAVOCEANO’s processing capabilities. The promisesof Unmanned Underwater Vehicles, Airborne LaserBathymetry Surveys, and other revolutionary data col-lection capabilities would have to wait for computersand communication capabilities to grow even further.

Current Operational Ocean Forecasting—2002

A list of the Navy’s current oceanographic systemsis provided in Table 1. Harding et al. (1999b) providespecific descriptions of present capabilities as of 1998.However, the past 4 years have witnessed a dramatic

6http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil7http://www.navo.navy.mil

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2000). This pilot project of the Global Ocean ObservingSystem (GOOS) is designed to create a global oceanobserving system capable of providing observations ofseasonal to decadal variability, but will also provideuseful input on the oceanic mesoscale for real-timeNavy applications. The backbone of the global observ-ing system is the array of surface to subsurface profil-ing floats capable of returning a temperature and salin-ity profile from 2000 m depth to the sea surface every10 days. The expected distribution in the global oceanis about one every three degrees in latitude and longi-tude. The information will be returned to FNMOC viasatellite, usually in less than 12 hours, and provided onthe GODAE server.

Beyond altimetry and sea-surface temperaturedata, ocean assimilation of remotely-sensed data is stillin its infancy especially for shallow water applications.In situ capabilities are expanding as NAVOCEANOcurrently supplements their survey ship capabilitywith Hydrographic Survey Launches (HSL) and teth-ered unmanned vehicles that can survey shallow-waterareas. Relevant to high resolution, nearshore coastalprediction, Airborne Laser Bathymetry surveys are alsonow operational. However, the numbers of surveys

scales. The NAVOCEANO MSRC also operates aVisualization Center, which allows modelers and oper-ators to visualize their data using new, visually intu-itive graphics that support the Fleet as well as benefitresearchers.

International collaborative opportunities in oceandata assimilation increased in 2000 with the establish-ment of the Global Ocean Data AssimilationExperiment (GODAE), a planned, practical data assim-ilation demonstration for using remotely-sensed and insitu observations and products on a global scale (Smithand Lefebvre, 1997). The primary operational applica-tions of GODAE, besides real-time applications ofinterests to the Navy, include climate and seasonalforecasting, marine safety, fisheries, offshore industry,and management of coastlines. A GODAE Montereydata server was established at FNMOC with oversightfrom the U.S. GODAE Steering Committee and fund-ing from ONR. The types of data available includesatellite, and in situ observations, as well as global andregional model fields created by FNMOC and NAVOCEANO.

A data acquisition project strongly endorsed byGODAE is the ARGO Project (Roemmich and Owens,

OCEAN ANALYSIS3-Dimensional Ocean Multi-Variate Optimal Interpolation System

Modular 3-Dimensional Ocean Data Assimilation System

OCEAN CIRCULATION MODELSUpper Ocean Mixed Layer Forecast (global & fixed regions)

Deep Ocean Mesocale Prediction (global)Upper Ocean & Coastal Ocean Prediction (global initially)Coastal Ocean Prediction (various fixed regions & nests)Rapidly Relocateable Ocean Prediction (regional & nests)Advanced Hydrodynamic Circulation Model for Shelves,

Coasts, and Estuaries

WAVE, SURF, AND TIDE MODELSThird Generation Wave Action Model (global & regional)Wave Watch III - Next Generation Wave Model (global)

Near Shore Spectral Wave Model (regional)Rapidly Relocateable Navy Standard Surf Model

Rapidly Relocatable Tidal Model

ICE MODELPolar Ice Prediction System (Northern Hemisphere to 30°N)

ATMOSPHERIC MODELSAtmospheric Prediction System (global)

High Resolution Atmospheric Prediction System (regional & nests)Tropical Cyclone Model with Imbedded Nests

Data AssimilationOCEAN MVOI

MODAS

ModelTOPSNLOMNCOMSWAFS

ReloPOMADCIRC

WAMWW3

STWAVENSSM

PC TIDES

PIPS

NOGAPS COAMPS

GFDN

Table 1. Operational oceanographic Navy models currently available or undergoing operational evaluation.

OCEAN SYSTEMS

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iment properties) and the SQS-53C (for acoustic rever-beration levels and sound speed measurements usingdata inversion techniques). Other observational datawill come from in situ oceanographic observations likethe Submarine Tactical Environmental Data System(STEDS), Environmental Acoustic Recording System(EARS), and Unmanned Aerial/Underwater Vehicles.Since the volume of information will be enormous, thefocus of R&D over the near term will be on the on-scene quality control, management, and assimilation ofthese observations to ensure the Fleet does not experi-ence “information overload.”

In a Navy “NETCENTRIC” future, the informationcollected by the Fleet will be constantly distributed tothe Production and Regional Centers for assimilationinto global and regional forecasts. Ultimately, NAVO-CEANO will also be tasked with quality controlling thedata and updating their databases. In addition to theirreal-time forecasts, NAVOCEANO will continue toproduce climatological products for long-range mis-sion planning. It remains to be seen if the Fleet willrequire climatological databases if they are receiving areal-time environmental “cube.”

conducted are limited due to the resources available toconduct the survey. NAVOCEANO also took the initia-tive to reduce the oceanographic data collection OODAloop by developing a new concept called Fleet SurveyTeams. These small (3–5) person teams trained ingeospatial information and hydrographic surveyingdeploy to areas of operational concern and rapidly col-lect oceanographic and hydrographic informationusing the HSLs or boats of opportunity. While data canbe rapidly collected on-scene, most of the informationis still processed at NAVOCEANO before it is returnedto the Fleet. This will be one likely new source of datafor future nearshore high-resolution prediction.

Future Operational Ocean Forecasting—2003 and Beyond

Based on the U.S. Navy’s vision that IT will main-tain the United States military superiority, a futureFleet capability will be the collection of massiveamounts of ocean observations from on-scene sensorsand weapon systems. This data, called “through thesensor” observations, will come from a number of tac-tical sonar sensors such as the BQN-17 (for bottom sed-

Figure 3. 30-day forecast valid for 15 March 2002 of global mean sea-surface height created by the NAVOCEANO opera-tional, 1⁄16

°, 6-layer, global ocean model. The model has realistic deep-water bottom topography. Color bar is in centimeters withvalues labeled on the color bar. Real-time output and skill measures of this product are available onhttp://www7300.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom.

°

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With observations available on-scene, and highbandwidth network connectivity to the Production andRegional Centers, the ship’s on-board computing sys-tems will assimilate the information and produce localprognostic forecasts. A series of steps must occurbefore the Fleet produces their own forecasts. First,NAVOCEANO must create high-resolution, globaloceanographic forecast fields, forced by high-resolu-tion atmospheric global forecasts produced byFNMOC. Regional Centers will then access subsets ofthese global oceanographic fields to create theater/tac-tical oceanographic fields for vessels that do not havean oceanographic prediction capability. These forecastfields would extend to 4 days, or longer, with horizon-tal and vertical resolutions similar to the global oceanforecasts. For Fleet components capable of operatingtheir own ocean models, the global ocean fields will beused to initialize very-high resolution, “postagestamp” size ocean forecasts for the ship or for an entirebattle group. These local forecasts might also extend to4 days, however the forecast area would follow the bat-

tle group while in transit instead of being a static fore-cast area.

While there will be a plethora of oceanographicobservations on-scene, there will also be a number ofoceanographic models available; covering the range ofNavy requirements. These could include circulation,wave, surf, tide, biological, riverine, and acoustic mod-els. Can all these models be operated in the Fleet?Shipboard computing systems and available personnelwill only be able to do so much. Most likely it will be adistributed modeling capability that includes the net-work-linked Regional and Production Center comput-ing architectures.

The ocean community will derive additional bene-fits from the DOD MSRC’s enormous computing capa-bilities. One will be the capacity to create ensembleforecasts and the other is the production of high-reso-lution visualization products. The atmospheric com-munity is currently refining ensemble-modeling tech-niques, where a model is operated hundreds orthousands of times to produce forecasts using per-

Figure 4. Virtual environments created by oceanographic models and data will provide the warfighter with “Watch Out”warfighting products and new ways to derive knowledge from binary data sets.

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and PE 62435 by the Office of Naval Research, andunder PE 63207N by the Oceanographer of the Navyvia PMW 155 of the Space and Naval Warfare SystemCommand. This paper, NRL contribution NRL/JA/7320/01/0017, is approved for public release, distribu-tion unlimited.

ReferencesCurtin, T.B. and J.M. Harding, 1999: U.S. Navy research

in ocean modeling and prediction: A Commentary.MTS Jour., 33, 95–96.

Dalton, J.H., J.M. Boorda and C.E. Mundy, 1994:Forward… From the sea. Proceedings of the UnitedStates Naval Institute, December, 46–49.

Harding, J.M., T.B. Curtin, S. Chang, R.M. Clancy and A.Johnson, 1996: Naval coastal ocean prediction.Conference on Coastal Oceanic and AtmosphericPrediction Preprint Volume, American MeteorologicalSociety, 44–51.

Harding, J.M., M.C. Carnes, R.H. Preller and R. Rhodes,1999a: The Naval Research Laboratory role in navalocean prediction. MTS Jour., 33, 67–79.

Harding, J.M., R.H. Preller and R. Rhodes, 1999b: Coastalocean prediction at the Naval Research Laboratory.3rd Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and OceanicPrediction and Processes Preprint Volume, AmericanMeteorological Society 236–240.

Hodur, R.M., 1997: The Naval Research Laboratory’sCoupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale PredictionSystem (COAMPS). Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1414–1430.

Hurlburt, H.E. and P.J. Hogan, 1998: Impact of 1⁄8° to 1⁄64°resolution on Gulf Stream model-data comparisonsin basin-scale subtropical Atlantic Ocean models.Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 32, 283–330.

Kelso, F.B., C.E. Mundy and S. O’Keefe, 1992: … Fromthe sea. Proceedings of the United States Naval Institute,November, 93–96.

Matthews, Paul and Cathy Willis, 2000: EnvironmentalCharacterization of the Battle Space EnhancesMaritime Dominance. Surface Warfare, 25(5).

Peloquin, R. 1992: The Navy ocean modeling and pre-diction program. Oceanography, 5, 4–8.

Rhodes, R.C., M.R. Carnes, J.W. Cartmill and J.W. Crout,1995: Software Requirements Specification for theModular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS)Version 1.0. NRL/FR/7322-94-9606, Naval ResearchLaboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS.

Roemmich, D. and W.B. Owens, 2000: The ARGOProject: Global ocean observations for understand-ing and prediction of climate variability.Oceanography, 13, 45–56.

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turbed initial values. Meteorologists use these multipleforecasts to determine the probabilities that an atmos-pheric condition may or may not occur at a certain timeand a certain location. One example is hurricane fore-casting, where ensemble models predict the spread ofprobable locations and strengths of one hurricane, andthis allows forecasters to create strike probabilities forvarious locations. Given the probable size of the NAV-OCEANO MSRC architecture in the future, ensemblesof global or regional ocean models might allow oceanforecasters to determine the probable strength and loca-tion of numerous ocean features that will greatly aid thesafety and tactical strike capabilities of the Fleet.

Visualization of oceanographic information isanother important MSRC benefit. While a ship’s mis-sion planning system will directly ingest the oceano-graphic “cube” of data, on-scene oceanographers anddecision makers will require the ability to derive directknowledge from the enormous amount of information.A number of R&D initiatives are in progress to fullyexploit current distributed visualization techniques(Figure 4). The NAVOCEANO MSRC’s VisualizationLaboratory is testing the ability to create high resolutionvisualization products on their platforms, consolidatethe information to movie formatted products that useless bandwidth, and disseminate the movie files in real-time to the Fleet. This type of support is the ultimateuse of IT and NETCENTRIC operations, with observa-tions, predictions, visualizations, and decisions beingmade in near real-time at all locations to shrink theoceanographic OODA loop as small as possible.

SummaryIn the context of a changing Navy mission and

rapid technology changes, this article addresses thepast, present, and future operational oceanographiccapabilities of the U.S. Navy. DOD and the U.S. Navyprovide the vision and the mission; the Fleet providesthe requirements; ONR and NRL develop the scienceand R&D to address the requirements and meet themission; the Oceanographer, SPAWAR, NRL, and theCNMOC subcommands team to directly support theFleet. These roles will not change significantly.However, scientific and technological breakthroughs inocean prediction, computer, and communication capa-bilities will continue to increase. These InformationTechnology enhancements and increased capabilitieswill result in more information and technology avail-able to the warfighter. The Navy’s oceanographic com-munity has developed an R&D strategy and a Conceptof Operations to address this “new frontier” to ensurethe Fleet’s safety and provide them with tacticaladvantage.

AcknowledgementsThe authors wish to thank Chris Hall and Tom

Cuff for their insightful editorial comments. JohnHarding’s contribution was funded under PE 61153N