SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings
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Transcript of SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer October 2011 Findings
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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer
October 2011 Findings
Date: 4th November 2011
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Content of this Presentation
Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition
The October 2011 Survey Findings• High Cost of Living
• ICC Process
• Presidential Candidate Preference
Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition
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Ipsos-Synovate Acquisition
About Ipsos:• Founded in France in 1975 (and was in 68 countries)
• Listed on the Paris Stock Exchange (since 1999)
• Ipsos and Synovate, the 3rd largest global market research company in a consolidating market comprising
Way forward:• Our new corporate identify “Ipsos-Synovate”
• Under Ipsos-Synovate management structure and staff remain the same
Methodology
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Poll Methodology
Dates of polling 15th – 23rd October 2011
Sample Size 2,000 respondents
Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)
Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas
Data collection methodology
Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
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Sampling Frame Statistics
Population Census as at 2009 (18 years
+)
Ipsos-Synovate Sample
Registered Voters as at ECK 2007
Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central 13% 13% 16%Coast 9% 9% 8%Eastern 15% 15% 17%Nairobi 10% 10% 8%North Eastern 5% 5% 2%Nyanza 13% 13% 15%Rift Valley 25% 25% 23%Western 10% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100%
SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections
Findings
Key problems facing Kenyans today
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Base All Respondents : April (n=2,000) ; July (n=2,000)October (n=2,000)
“In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” SINGLE MENTION ONLY (by Total)
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Prices of key commodities
Commodity April 2011 July 2011 October 2011
Maize flour (1 kg) Ksh 40 – 45 Ksh 67 – 80 Ksh 70 - 80
Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000 – 2,600 Ksh 4,000.00 – 4,800 Ksh 3,000 – 3,700
Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94 – 98 Ksh 100 – 130 Ksh 190 - 220
Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104 Ksh 115.39 Ksh 120
Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94 Ksh 106.12 Ksh 110
Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84 Ksh 86. 16 Ksh 88
Milk Ksh 28 Ksh 28 – 32 Ksh 33
Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38 – 40 Ksh 43
1 $ Ksh 83 Ksh 89 Ksh 99
Source: Local shops / retail outlets collected by Synovate
Inflation rate – October (18.9%) ; September (17.3%) ; January (5.42%)Source - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics)
Performance Ratings - Coalition Government
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“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the coalition government over the last three months?”
Base: (All respondents)
July '08 Oct '09 Dec '09 April '09 July '09 Oct '09 Dec '09 Mar '10 Dec '10 Mar '11 July '11 Oct '110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
77%
69%
61%
33%
44%49% 50%
34%
65% 63%
47%43%
% indicating that they are approve/somewhat approve
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“How well do you think our coalition government is dealing with the problem of ..... Are they performing..?” by Total
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Crime Constitution Implementation
Corruption Unemployment Food prices Fuel prices 0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
46%40%
15%8% 6% 4%
% indicating that government is doing very well + doing well in dealing with the problem
International Criminal Court (ICC) Process
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“Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” By Total
Yes; 77%
No; 23%
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
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“Did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Province)
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North eastern
Nyanza Rift valley Western0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%88%
58%
73%
93%
80%73%
85%
50%
11%
41%
26%
7%
19%27%
14%
50%
Yes No
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“How did you follow / watch any of the proceedings of the ICC?” (By Total)
Base: n=1,536 (Those who followed proceedings )
I-NET
Public meetings
Newspapers
From friends/colleagues
Radio
TV
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2%
2%
22%
32%
66%
68%
Internet
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“Do you think that the ICC Confirmation Hearings against the Ocampo 6 were conducted fairly?”
(By province – those who followed/ watched proceedings)
Base: n=1,536 (respondents who watched proceedings)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
76% 73%82%
58%
81%
54%
93%
79%85%
% indicating that the hearings were conducted fairly
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“If the ICC fails to send the Ocampo 6 to trial, do you think they should be tried in Kenya?” (By Total)
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Yes; 25%
No; 63%
No re-sponse;
2%
Don't know; 9%
Those who support trials ICC Process (Trend over 12 months)
% who support ICC Trials
Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
68%
57%61%
56%59%
Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled
After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled
Summons issued to appear at The Hague
Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials
Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials
% who support the ICC Process
Nairobi Central Coast Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western North Eastern0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
64%
73%73%
71% 72%
61%
72%
60%58%
54%
68%
61%66%
49%
59%
41%
67%
46%
75%
59%
80%
43%
76%73%
65%
36%
76%
50%
79%
37%
84%
48%
69%
58%61%
47%
86%
49%
72%
21%
Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jun 2011 Oct-11
Those who support trials ICC Process – By Province (Trend over 12 months)
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“What did Kibaki do recently to support Francis Muthaura in his ICC case?” by Total
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Right answer (President Kibaki wrote a letter to the ICC in de-
fence of Head of Civil Service
Francis Muthaura); 21%
Wrong answer; 15%
Don't Know; 63%NR; 1%
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“Do you think President Kibaki did the right thing by writing a letter to the ICC in defence of Francis Muthaura?”
(by Total)
Base: n=419 (Those aware of letter written by President Kibaki )
YES; 35%
NO; 63%
Don’t know; 2%
Refused to answer; 1%
Presidential Elections 2012
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17 Aspirants have declared interest in the Presidency:
1. Professor James Ole Kiyiapi2. Professor Chirau Ali Makwere3. Isaac Jafar 4. Paul Muite5. Mutava Musyimi6. Eugene Wamalwa7. Moses Wetangula8. Bifwoli Wakoli9. Martha Karua 10.Uhuru Kenyatta11. Raila Odinga12.Kalonzo Musyoka 13.William Ruto14.Charity Ngilu 15.Moses Mudavadi16.Peter Kenneth17.Mike Sonko
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Raila Odinga
Uhuru Kenyatta
William Ruto
Kalonzo Musyoka
Martha Karua
Eugene Wamalwa
Peter Kenneth
Raphael Tuju
Other Undecided0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
34%
24%
10% 9%5%
2% 1% 1% 1%
12%
Reasons for being undecided: • Waiting final list of candidates (39%
of undecided) • Seeking more information on
candidates (40% of undecided)
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Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley Western 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
34%
7%
51%
10%
41% 42%
76%
24%
53%
24%
66%
10%
28% 28% 27%
8%
20%
2%
10%
0%4% 2% 2%
12%
1%
31%
6%9%
6% 7%
37%
3% 3% 4% 5%2%
5% 6% 6% 5%
11%
5% 4% 5% 3%2% 0% 1% 1% 0%3%
8%
Raila Odinga Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Kalonzo Musyoka
Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa
“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total
Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern Nyanza Rift Valley WesternUndecided 12% 8% 20% 17% 10% 7% 5% 9% 22%
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Presidential Candidate Choice -Time Series
Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 2011 Oct-110%
20%
40%
60%
36%36%
48%
42%38%
32%34%
12%12% 12% 12%
13%11%
9%8% 8%
14% 14%
18%21%
24%
7%
11%10%
4%
8%11% 10%
6% 5%7%
5% 6% 5% 5%4%1% 1% 2% 3% 3% 2%
11%14%
5%
16%
8%
13% 13%
Raila Ondiga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta William Ruto Martha Karua
Eugene Wamalwa Others None
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“ If elections were to be held today, how likely do you think it is for any presidential candidate to win on the first round?” by Total
Very likely + somewhat likely (67%)
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“Under the New Constitution, what % of votes must a presidential candidate attain to win in the 1st round of elections?” (by Province)
Those who indicate the right answerMust garner at least 50% + 1 of votes cast
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“Who would you vote for in case of a run off between…..?” By Total
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Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern
Nyanza Rift Valley Western 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
41%
11%
64%
18%
36%
49%
80%
32%
69%
44%
82%
17%
69%
36%43%
11%
56%
8%8%3%
8% 11% 13%6% 5% 8% 10%7%
5% 11%
1%
14%
1% 3% 5%
13%
Raila Uhuru None DK/NR
“Who would you vote for in case of a run off between Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta?” (By Province)
DK (don’t know) : NR (no response) 8% 19% 12% 27% 7% 9% 13% 23%
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Candidate voted for in 2007 viz a viz those they would vote for in 2012. (By Total)
Those who voted for Mwai Kibaki in the 2007
would vote for
Those who voted for Raila Odinga the 2007
would vote for
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The Police
Parliament
Coalition Govt
Vice President
The Judiciary
Chief Justice
Prime Minister
President Kibaki
Speaker
The Media
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
27%
41%
43%
46%
47%
49%
60%
62%
68%
83%
% indicating they highly approve + approve of their performance
“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions? By Total
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Press Kit
• PowerPoint Presentation (on CD)• Additional information on the methodology, sample distribution
by setting (urban and rural), province and district.
• Detailed Press releases in MS-Word (on CD and hard copy)
• Audio recording of Kiswahili version of findings (on CD)
All Synovate polls posted on the website below; www.synovate.co.ke
Questions? Comments?
Detailed Poll Methodology
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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A
sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target
population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 15 th to 23rd, October 2011
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical districts in Kenya
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for quality control.
POLL METHODOLOGY
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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4 households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3 callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided, including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
Poll Methodology (Cont..)
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Sampling Frame Statistics
Population Census as at 2009 (18 years
+)
Ipsos-Synovate Sample
Registered Voters as at ECK 2007
Register Base 19,462,360 2,000 14,088,302 Central 13% 13% 16%Coast 9% 9% 8%Eastern 15% 15% 17%Nairobi 10% 10% 8%North Eastern 5% 5% 2%Nyanza 13% 13% 15%Rift Valley 25% 25% 23%Western 10% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100%
SPEC Survey was based on the 2009 Kenya Population and Housing Censushttp://www.scribd.com/doc/3339642/Official-Results-of-the-2007-General-elections
46© Synovate 2011
Total Central Coast Eastern NairobiNorth Eastern Nyanza
Rift Valley Western
2,000 262 176 299 210 95 262 493 203
Urban 37% 37% 51% 24% 100% 21% 27% 29% 21%
Rural 63% 63% 49% 76% 0% 79% 73% 71% 79%
Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural
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MethodologySample distribution – District Level
Boost sample for Mandera, Kakuma Towns and Daadab Towns; 250 each
Province District Rural Urban Total
Central
Kiambu 20 36 56Murang'a 37 8 45Nyeri 32 11 43Thika 24 29 53Kirinyaga 28 5 33Nyandarua 25 6 31
Coast
Kilifi 25 8 33Kwale 24 7 31Mombasa 0 60 60Malindi 14 9 23Tana River 17 5 22
Eastern
Kitui 23 7 30Machakos 27 34 61Makueni 38 6 44Meru North 39 0 39Mbeere 22 0 22Meru Central 31 5 36Mwingi 22 0 22Meru South(Nithi) 15 8 23Embu 17 6 23
Nairobi Nairobi 0 210 210
North EasternGarissa 21 7 28Mandera 32 8 40Wajir 76 20 96
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MethodologySample distribution (continued)
Province District Rural Urban Total
Nyanza
Gucha 26 0 26Kisii Central 23 12 35Migori 17 13 30Kuria 17 5 22Kisumu 11 22 33Nyamira (North Kisii) 20 5 25Rachuonyo 17 5 22Siaya 27 0 27Bondo 17 5 22Suba 22 0 22
Rift Valley
Kajiado 19 18 37Nakuru 42 43 85Nandi 32 6 38Trans Nzoia 30 9 39Turkana 34 6 40Uasin Gishu 27 21 48West Pokot 26 0 26Kericho 18 12 30Buret 24 0 24Bomet 17 6 23Koibatek 18 5 23Samburu 17 5 22Narok 21 5 26Laikipia 17 6 23
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Province District Rural Urban Total
Western
Bungoma 41 14 55
Butere/Mumias 22 6 28
Kakamega 31 6 37
Busia 23 0 23
Teso 16 7 23
Vihiga 19 9 28
Lugari 22 0 22Total 2,000
MethodologySample distribution (continued)
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