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![Page 1: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for
Australian Mortality
Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference
Sydney Australia9 and 10 September 2010
Michael Sherris (with Andy Tang)Australian School of Business, UNSW
![Page 2: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Mortality rates are known to vary by geographical location and to depend on socio-economic factors.
Demographic, ethnic and socio-economic mortality factors vary by geographical location.
Spatial variability of Australian mortality is assessed using a spatial model along with explanatory risk factors including age, income, labour force participation and unemployment rate.
Introduction
![Page 3: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Spatial models explain mortality variation by geographical location better than non-spatial models when limited data is available for socio-economic factors.
Explanatory factors, which also vary spatially, reduce the need for spatial models for mortality.
Introduction
![Page 4: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Logistic regression
![Page 5: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Non-spatial frailties model
![Page 6: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Spatial frailties model
![Page 7: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Data – SSD’s
![Page 8: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Data – mortality rates
![Page 9: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Covariates
![Page 10: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Results - GLM
![Page 11: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Spatial Frailties Model
![Page 12: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Model Comparison
![Page 13: Spatial Variability in Mortality and Socioeconomic Factors for Australian Mortality Sixth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062722/56649f2a5503460f94c4425c/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Summary and Main Conclusions
Explanatory factors for mortality are spatially distributed
Spatial models are useful in understanding mortality variation if information about factors is not available
Implications for risk rating of longevity products – postcode, geographical factors – especially when risk factors data is limited.