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Tensions are on the edgerecent BMD, ASAT, and Laser tests means that the next push send the

arms race over the edge

Ross, Wyatt, and Hope 11(Tim, Holly, and Christopher, WikiLeaks: US and China in military standoff

over space missiles, The Telegraph, February 2,

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.html, BS)

The two nuclear superpowers both shot down their own satellites using sophisticated missiles in separate

show of strength, the files suggest. The American Government was so incensed by Chinese actions in space

that it privately warned Beijing it would face military action if it did not desist. The Chinese carried out

further tests as recently as last year, however, leading to further protests from Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of

State, secret documents show. Beijing justified its actions by accusing the Americans of developing an

offensive laser weapon system that would have the capability of destroying missiles before they left

enemy territory. The disclosures are contained in the latest documents obtained by the Wikileaks website, which have

been released to The Telegraph. Theydetail the private fears of both superpowers as they sought mastery of the

new military frontier.

Over 30 national security leaders in China are pushing for weaponizationand attacks on US assets - theyre not pacifistPillsbury 7(Michael, PhD, Defense Policy Advisor on China, AN ASSESSMENT OF CHINAS ANTI-SATELLITE

AND SPACE WARFARE PROGRAMS, POLICIES AND DOCTRINES, Jan 19,http://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2007/FINAL_REPORT_1-19-2007_REVISED_BY_MPP.pdf, )

The first two parts of this study present the results ofa survey of Chinese writings that discovered 30proposals that China should acquire several types of anti satellite weapons. Manyforeignobservers have mistakenly claimed that China is a pacifistic nation and has no interestsuch weapons. The Director of the US National Reconnaissance Office Donald Kerr confirmed a Chinese laser hadilluminated a US satellite in 2006. These skeptical observers dismissed that laser incident, but then appeared to bestunned by the reported Chinese destruction of a satellite January 11, 2007. China declined to confirm the event, but manyforeign governments immediately protested,1 including Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Britain, while Russiasdefense minister suggested the report may not be fully accurate. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, while declining toconfirm the incident, said other countries should not be alarmed. A US NSC spokesman said China fired a missile todestroy an orbiting weather satellite, making it the third country after the United States and the former Soviet Union to

shoot down anything in space. If confirmed, the test would mean China could now theoretically shootdown spy satellites operated by other nations. Parts 3 and 4 of this study recommend policy measures theUS and other nations may consider. The ten measures are: 1. Possible US Countermeasures Awareness, AssessingDamage, Forensics, Counter Strikes Of the thirty Chinese proposals, one set would be particularly challenging to US

military vulnerabilities in a crisis. In each of their books, Chinese Colonels Li, Jia and Yuan all advocatedcovert deployment of a sophisticated antisatellite weapon system to be used againstUnited States in a surprise manner without warning. Even a small scale antisatellite attackin a crisis against 50 US satellites [assuming a mix of targeted military reconnaissance, navigation satellites, andcommunication satellites] could have a catastrophic effect not only on US military forces, but ofthe US civilian economy. It is not clear from US open sources how rapidly--if at all--United States could launch spare satellites to replace a few dozen that had been incapacitated in orbit by aChinese attack. US sources refer to many [very expensive] countermeasures such as maneuvering satellites in orbit toescape destruction, using constellations of small satellites, rapid replacement with spares, and even prompt counter

strikes on the Chinese launchers.2 A second set of Chinese concepts proposed in these open sourcewritings would also be particularly challenging. Many of the concepts recommended includeboth jamming

and attacking ground stations, rather than the permanent destruct ruction of US satellites. In both cases, theChinese authors imply the United States may lack the forensic ability to know which nation had neutralized US spacesystems through covert attack, jamming or destruction of ground stations by missile or Special Forces raids. The USDefense Department currently has put before Congress various proposals for enhancing situational awareness of spaceattack, but the ultimate approval of multiple-year funding is unknown.

China is continuing to develop multiple ASAT capabilitiesAFP 11(China's hostile spacecapabilities worry US: official, Feb 4,http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinas_hostile_space_capabilities_worry_US_official_999.html, )

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.htmlhttp://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2007/FINAL_REPORT_1-19-2007_REVISED_BY_MPP.pdfhttp://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinas_hostile_space_capabilities_worry_US_official_999.htmlhttp://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Chinas_hostile_space_capabilities_worry_US_official_999.htmlhttp://www.uscc.gov/researchpapers/2007/FINAL_REPORT_1-19-2007_REVISED_BY_MPP.pdfhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.htmlhttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.html

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China is developing "counterspace" weapons that could shoot down satellites or jamsignals, a Pentagon official said Friday as the United States unveiled a 10-year strategy for security in space. "Theinvestment China is putting into counterspace capabilities is a matter of concern to us,"deputy secretary of defense for space policy Gregory Schulte told reporters as the defense and intelligence communitiesreleased their 10-year National Security Space Strategy (NSSS). The NSSS marks a huge shift from past practice, outlininga 10-year path for the United States to take in space to ensure it becomes "more resilient" and can defend its assets in adramatically more crowded, competitive and challenging environment, Schulte said. A key reason for developing the new

strategy was "concern about the number of counterspace capabilities that are being developed," said Schulte. "China isat the forefront of the development of those capabilities," he said. China in 2007 shot downone of its own weather satellites using a medium-range ground missile, sparking internationalconcern not onlyabout how China "weaponizing" space, but also about the debris from the satellite thatis still floating around in space. Beijing is alsoworking on ways to jam satellite signals and isdeveloping directed energy weapons, which emit energy towards a target without firing a projectile, Schultesaid. US concerns over China's space activities have led Defense Secretary Robert Gates to seek to include space in thestability dialogue with the Chinese, Schulte said.

China will engage the US in a space war inevitably - official statements prove- your authors make unsubstantiated assumptionsNavrozov 9 (Lev, Writer @ the Center for the Survival of Western Democracies, Citing Chi Haotian, FormerMinister of National Defense of China, and chinse Senior office Yao, Weaponizing space inevitable, says a reasonable-

sounding Chinese communist lady, Aug 27,http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/lev0684_08_21.asp, )

In short, space war is possible, since the owners of China believe that this is the best war toannihilate the United States and thus become the owners of the world, as was predicted several years agobyChi Haotian, who is now 80 years old, butwho was the Minister of National Defense of China upto 2003. America has to defend itself against Chinas space war, since the outer space spreadsabove every country, including the United States. The division of the outer space into areas will notprevent a country such as China from violating the borders of these areas. A lot of legal andgovernment paper has been used in the past decades to conclude outer space agreements. In the democraticcountries, it has often been assumed(even with respect to Hitlers invasions) that wars originatefrom misunderstanding, and present or potential totalitarian aggressors can be persuaded to keeppeace. Hence manysavants in the democraticWest wouldnt hear what General Chi Haotian of

China said about the need for China to be the first to annihilate the U.S.A. and for Chinato rule the world for the next century. The Chinese newspaper The China Post, published in English and sold, forexample, in Australia, carried an article entitled ChineseOfficer Predicts Weapons in Space ( seeYahoo!). The seniorofficer namedYao, who directs the Asia-Pacific Office at the Academy of Military Science in Beijing, proves to be awoman. Of course! Let the English-speaking in Australia and elsewhere know about the scrupulous equality between menand women in the new China. Says Yao: My wish is we really want to keep space as a peaceful place for human beings. Ofcourse! Let the English-speaking all over the world see what an advanced woman she is, thinking above all about humanbeings. Shouldnt she appeal to the like-minded people and complain to the government? Oh, no! The government and

the party cannot be wrong, and to complain in this case would be treasonable. SaidYao: But personally, I ampessimistic about it [the consensus]. My prediction: Outer space is going to be weaponized in ourlifetime. So it looks like a predicted fate. There has been no one in China to speak publicly for the

weaponization of the outer space. But this is what will happen in our lifetime. For theowners of China, the advantage of the space war is that it is new to all countries . The

advanced countries had many years to develop tanks and aviation for WWI, then two decades to develop them betweenWWI and WWII, and six decades to continue to develop them between 1945 and today. As for the space war, China andthe United States began from the beginning. The owners of China fight for their world domination as per Chi Haotian,

and the U.S.A. is against it. But in the 21st century, China and the United States began evensome space war excanges. The space war is on. Who will win it? What is clear is that U.S. PresidentObama has been siding with the U.S. enemy when he proclaimed that the U.S.-China relations will shape the 21stcentury, and the U.S. and China are poised to make steady progress in some of the most important issues of our time

China space weapons causes World War III

Robb 99

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Senator Charles S. Robb, Senate committees on armed services, foreign relations andintelligence, Washington Quarterly, 1999 WinterIn a second, more likely scenario, the United States deploys the samecapabilities, but other nations do not simply acquiesce. Understanding the tremendous advantages of military spaceoperations, China deploys nuclear weapons into space that can either bedetonated near U.S. satellites or delivered to the earth in just minutes.

Russia fields ground-based lasers for disabling and destroying our satellites,then deploys satellites with kinetic-kill munitions for eradicating groundtargets. It also reneges on the START treaties, knowing that, rather than trying to replicate America's costlydefensive systems, its incremental defense dollar is better spent on offensive warheads for overwhelming American defenses. Other

rogue nations, realizing that their limited missile attack capabilities are now useless against our new defense screen, focuson commercially available cruise missiles, which they load with chemicaland biological warheads and plan to deploy from commercial ships and aircraft. Still others bring tofruition the long-expected threat of a nuclear weapon in a suitcase. If history hastaught us anything, it is that a future more like the second scenario will prevail. It defies reason to assume that nations would sit idle whilethe United States invests billions of dollars in weaponizing space, leaving them at an unprecedented disadvantage. This second scenariosuggests three equally troubling consequences. The first is that Americans would, in a relative sense, lose the most from a space-based armsrace. The United States is currently the preeminent world military power, and much of that power resides in our ability to use space formilitary applications. A large percentage of our military communications now passes through space. Our troops rely on weather satellites,our targeteers on satellite photos, and virtually all of our new generations of weapons on the Global Positioning System satellites for pin-point accuracy. By encouraging potential adversaries to deploy weapons into space that could quickly destroy many of these systems, a

space-based arms race would render many of these more vulnerable to attack than they are today. Even if our potential adversaries wereunable to build a competing force, they could still position deadly satellites disguised as commercial assets near or in the path of our mostvital military satellites. And even if we could sustain our space advantage, the costs would be extraordinary. Why pursue this option whenthere is no compelling reason to do so at this time? Why make a battlefield out of an arena upon which we depend so heavily? The second

consequence would be that a space-based arms race would be essentially irreversible -- wewould face the difficulty, if not impossibility, of assessing what is being put into space. Under the START regime, signatories currentlycooperate in inspecting and monitoring each other's intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers, and submarines, all of which operatewithin a narrow band above and below sea level. Most space payloads, however, are built and launched wi th great secrecy and c an operateat any distance from the earth, even on celestial bodies such as the moon. Most satellites would operate up to geostationary orbit, or about22,000 miles from the earth's surface, yielding a total operational volume millions of times greater than that now occupied by missiles,bombers, and submarines. Attempting to monitor weapons in this vast volume of space would be daunting. We would no longer be countingwith reasonable confidence the number of concrete silos at missile wings or submarine missile tubes at piers or bombers on airfields. Inmany cases we would have no idea what is out there. Military planners, conservative by nature, would assume the worst and try to meetenemy deployments in space with an equal or greater capability. Of course, for about $ 400 million per launch, we could use the spaceshuttle to make closer inspections, assuming that other nations would be willing to tolerate our presence near their critical space assets. Dueto orbital constraints, however, the shuttle could reach only a fraction of the total number of satellites in orbit. Another option would be toexpand and improve our space monitoring assets -- but only at a cost of tens of billions of dollars. Once this genie is out of the bottle, thereis no way to put it back in. We could never afford to bring all these systems back to earth, and destroying them would be equally unfeasible,because the billions of pieces of space debris would jeopardize commercial satellites and manned missions. The third consequence of U.S.

space weaponization would be the heightened probability of strategic conflict. Anyone familiar with the destabilizing impact of MIRVs willunderstand thatweapons in space will bring a new meaning to the expression "hairtrigger." Lasers can engage targets in seconds. Munitions fired fromsatellites in low-earth orbit can reach the earth's surface in minutes . As in theMIRV scenario,the side to strike first would be able to destroy much of itsopponent's space weaponry before the opponent had a chance to respond. Thetemptation to strike first during a crisis would be overwhelming; much of thedecisionmaking would have to be automated.Imagine that during a crisis one of our key militarysatellites stops functioning and we cannot determine why. We -- or acomputer controlling our weapons for us -- must then decide whether or notto treat this as an act of war and respond accordingly. The fog of war wouldreach an entirely new density, with our situational awareness of the course of battle in space limited and ourdecision cycles too slow to properly command engagements.

Events would occur so quickly that wecould not even be sure which nation had initiated a strike. We would be repeating history,but this time with far graver consequences. In the absence of explicit evidence that another nation with the economic and technical means isdeveloping weapons for space, we should forgo our advanced prototyping and testing of space weapons. We should seek to expand the 1967Treaty on the Exploration and Use of Outer Space to prohibit not just weapons of mass destruction in space, but all space-based weaponscapable of destroying space, ground, air, or sea targets. We should also explore a verification regime that would allow inspection of space-bound payloads. During the Reagan years advocates of the Strategic Defense Initiative ran an effective television spot featuring children

being saved from nuclear attack by a sh ield represented by a rainbow. If we weaponize space, we will face avery different image -- the image of hundreds of weapons-laden satellites orbitingdirectly over our homes and our families 24 hours a day, ready to fire withinseconds. If fired, they would destroy thousands of ground, air and space

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targets within minutes, before there is even a chance of knowing what has happened, or why. This would be a darkfuture, a future we should avoid at all costs.

China is locked in a space race mentalityand they will use a space race as cover for weaponization

Ritter, 08(Peter, Journalist for Time World, The New Space Race: China vs. US 2-13,Time World, http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1712812,00.html, KM)

Both the U.S. and China have announced intentions of returning humans to the moon by 2020 at theearliest. And the two countries are already in the early stages of a new space racethat appears to have someof the heat and skullduggery of the one between Washington and Moscow during the Cold War, when space was a proxy

battleground for geopolitical dominance. On Monday,the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment ofa former Boeing engineer for passing sensitive information about the U.S. space program to the Chinese

government. According to the indictment, Dongfan Chung, a 72-year-old California man who worked forBoeinguntilSeptember 2006,gave China documents relating to military aircraft and rocket technology, as well astechnical information about the U.S. Space Shuttle. U.S. officials say the Chung case is part of a pattern ofescalating espionage by China. "We're seeing this on all fronts," says Dean Boyd, a spokesman for the JusticeDepartment's National Security Division. Since October 2006, the Justice Department has prosecuted more than a dozenhigh-profile cases involving China, including industrial espionage and the illegal export of military technology. In anunrelated case also announced Monday, a Defense Department employee was arrested in Virginia for passing classifiedinformation about the sale of U.S. military technology to Taiwan to alleged Chinese agents. The scale of Chung's allegedespionage is startling. According to the Justice Department, Chung may have been providing trade secrets to Chineseaerospace companies and government agents since 1979, when he was an engineer at Rockwell International, a companyacquired by Boeing in 1996. He worked for Boeing until his retirement in March 2003, and continued to work as acontractor for the company until September 2006. The indictment alleges that Chung gave China documents relating tothe B-1 bomber and the Delta IV rocket, which is used to lift heavy payloads into space, as well as information on anadvanced antenna array intended for the Space Shuttle. According to the indictment, Chinese officials gave Chung ashopping list of information to acquire for them. In one instance, Chung said that he would send documents through anofficial in China's San Francisco consulate. In another, a Chinese contact suggested he route information through a mannamed Chi Mak, a naturalized U.S. citizen who also worked as an engineer in California and who was convicted last year ofattempting to provide China with information on an advanced naval propulsion system. The indictment charges thatChung was a willing participant. "Having been a Chinese compatriot for over 30 years and being proud of theachievements by the people's efforts for the motherland, I am regretful for not contributing anything," Chung allegedlywrote in an undated letter to one of his mainland contacts. (Chung's lawyer has maintained his client's innocence.)China's manned space program, codenamed Project 921, is indeed a matter of considerable national pride

for a country that sees space exploration as confirmation of superpower status. China is pouring substantial

resources into space research,according to Dean Cheng, an Asian affairs specialist at the U.S.-based Center for NavalAnalysis. With a budget estimated at up to $2 billion a year, China's space program is roughly comparable to Japan's.

Later this year, China plans to launch its third manned space missiona prelude to a possible lunar forayby 2024. With President George W. Bush vowing to return American astronauts to the moon by 2020, some competitionis perhaps inevitable. China's space program lags far behind that of the U.S., of course. "They're basically recreating theApollo missions 50 years on," says Joan Johnson-Freese, chair of the National Security Studies Department at the U.S.

Naval War College and an expert on China's space development. "It's a tortoise-and-hare race. They're happy plodding

along slowly and creating this perception of a space race." But there may be more at stake than national honor.Some analysts say that China's attempts to access American space technology are less about boosting its

space program than upgrading its military. China is already focusing on space as a potential battlefield. Arecent Pentagon estimate of China's military capabilities said that China is investing heavily in anti-satellite

weaponry. In January 2007, China demonstrated that it was able to destroy orbiting satellites when itbrought down one of its own weather satellites with a missile. China clearly recognizes the significance of

this capability. In 2005, a Chinese military officer wrote in the book Joint Space War Campaigns, put out by theNational Defense University, that a "shock and awe strike" on satellites "will shake the structure of the opponent's

operations system of organization and will create huge psychological impact on the opponent's policymakers."Such astrike could hypothetically allow China to counterbalance technologically superior U.S. forces, which rely

heavily on satellites for battlefield data.China is still decades away from challenging the U.S. in space. But U.S.officials worry espionage may be bringing China a little closer to doing so here on Earth.US-China space race will turn military and snowball out of control to full US-Sino war

Solomone, 06

Stacey, Ph.D. in Futures Studies at the University of Hawaii, China's Space Program: thegreat leap upward, Journal of Contemporary China, rmg

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PLA control of the space program may very likely lead to a space race between China and the United

States. Without more civilian-based space cooperation between the two nations, the Chineseand US militaries will feed off one anothers paranoias and pursue militarization of space in order to always

have an upper hand over the opposing military. This will have a snowball effect on militarization of space .While the United States will remain technologically advanced over China, the US C4ISRsystem will remain vulnerable to the PLAs advancements in counterspace weapons

systems. There also exists the potential for an accidental start of a space war. The same outcome from theCold War can be applied to a SinoUS military contest in space. Did neither the PLA nor the USmilitary learn anything from the Cold War? If the PLA continues to focus on militarization ofspace, then this may hurt the Chinese economy by allocating funds into the military space program which

could effectively be used in peaceful space or Earthbound projects. PLA control over the space programcould also end up hurting Asian regional stability and the Taiwan situation. It also lends potential to further

illegal exportation of WMD from China.

China-Taiwan war goes nuclearMAD doesnt apply

Solomone, 06

Stacey, Ph.D. in Futures Studies at the University of Hawaii, China's Space Program: thegreat leap upward, Journal of Contemporary China, rmg

First, the PLA is suspected of making great strides in counterspace weapons systems. The PLA isbelieved to have made efforts in ASAT weapons such as groundbased lasers and otherdirected energy weapons, small-sized missiles designed to target foreign satellites,parasite satellites, micro- and nano-satellites, nuclear and non-nuclear EMP weapons,EMP satellite shielding, and stealthy satellites. As long as the PLA is successfully makingprogress in developing these weapons, it will continue to do so . A Taiwan crisis, the foremostthreatening issue toward destabilizing peace in the region, could spark a terrible event. During the Cold

War, the United States and the former Soviet Union used mutually assured destruction as a deterrent t odissuade the use of nuclear weapons in space which would destroy all satellites and, with them, allsatellite command, control, and communications. 41 However, should the United States become engagedin a struggle over Taiwan independence, it is regrettably feasible that China could use such a horrible

means to prevent Taiwan from gaining independence. In the case of China, nuclear weapons in space are

not just a means of deterrence or a means of merely producing fear; it simply is a last-effort strategy thatis at Chinas disposal. 42