S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuationptmbook.yardeni.com/pub/peacockfeval.pdfStock...

Stock Market Briefing:S&P 500/400/600 Weekly

Forward Earnings & ValuationYardeni Research, Inc.

September 25, 2017

Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683

[email protected]

Joe Abbott732-497-5306

[email protected]

Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents

September 25, 2017 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings 3S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues 4S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins 5S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 6S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 7S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 8S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Earnings 9S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 10S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings 11S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins 12S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 13S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales 14S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 15S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 16S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 17S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels 18S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings 19S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings 20S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2017 21S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 22S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues 23S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 24S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 25S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales 26S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 27S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 28S&P 400 Sectors Forward Earnings 29S&P 400 Sectors Forward Revenues 30S&P 400 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 31S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Es 32S&P 400 Sectors Forward P/Sales 33S&P 400 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 34S&P 400 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 35

continued...

September 25, 2017 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com


S&P 600 Sectors Forward Earnings 36S&P 600 Sectors Forward Revenues 37S&P 600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 38S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Es 39S&P 600 Sectors Forward P/Sales 40S&P 600 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 41S&P 600 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index 42S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin 43S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es 44S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales 45

Figure 1.

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201850

75

100

125

150

175

50

75

100

125

150

175

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 131.28 145.76 141.58 Sep 21 131.12 145.45 141.59

17 189/21

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201825

45

65

85

105

125

25

45

65

85

105

125

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 90.80 102.78 99.32 Sep 21 90.57 102.97 99.63

17 18 9/21

S&P 400

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201810

15

20

25

30

35

40

455055

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

455055

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 39.23 47.25 44.94 Sep 21 39.26 47.23 45.08

1718

9/21

S&P 600

Consensus Forecasts

Annual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings

Page 3 / September 25, 2017 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Forward Earnings & Valuation www.yardeni.com


Figure 2.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018900

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130018

9/1417

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual RevenuesForward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

18 9/1417

S&P 400


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018350

450

550

650

750

850

950

350

450

550

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750

850

950

17

18

9/14S&P 600


* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues



Figure 3.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20186

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

189/14

17

S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

Consensus Forecasts

Forward Margins* (11.1)

Annual Margins

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20184

5

6

7

8

4

5

6

7

8

189/1417

S&P 400

Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183

4

5

6

7

3

4

5

6

7

17

18

9/14

yardeni.com

S&P 600

Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201850

75

100

125

150

175

50

75

100

125

150

175

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 131.28 145.76 141.58 Sep 21 131.12 145.45 141.59

17 189/21

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

Forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 4.

I II III IV I II III IV I II2016 2017 2018

29

31

33

35

37

39

29

31

33

35

37

39

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 30.90 32.63 32.93 35.05 Sep 21 30.90 32.58 32.80 34.98

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2017 By Quarter as of 09/21/17

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 5.

S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings



2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201825

40

55

70

85

100

115

25

40

55

70

85

100

115

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 90.80 102.78 99.32 Sep 21 90.57 102.97 99.63

17 18 9/21

S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual

52-Week Forward*

* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 6.


18

20

22

24

26

28

18

20

22

24

26

28

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 20.30 23.05 23.04 24.61 Sep 21 20.30 23.05 22.72 24.64

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 7.




2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201810

20

30

40

50

60

10

20

30

40

50

60

2017 2018 Frwd Sep 14 39.23 47.25 44.94 Sep 21 39.26 47.23 45.08

1718

9/21

S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly)

Consensus Forecasts

Annual

52-Week Forward*

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 8.


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

8

9

10

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12

13

14

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 8.70 9.73 9.90 11.29 Sep 21 8.70 9.75 9.84 11.27

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

Figure 9.




Figure 10.


28

30

32

34

36

38

28

30

32

34

36

38

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 30.90 32.63 32.93 35.05 Sep 21 30.90 32.58 32.80 34.98

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4




16

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22

24

26

28

16

18

20

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 20.30 23.05 23.04 24.61 Sep 21 20.30 23.05 22.72 24.64

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4




7

8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

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11

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13

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 8.70 9.73 9.90 11.29 Sep 21 8.70 9.75 9.84 11.27

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4



yardeni.com


S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Earnings



Figure 11.


4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

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22

4

6

8

10

12

14

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 14.6 10.2 5.5 12.1 Sep 21 14.6 10.0 5.1 11.8

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

2017 By Quarter as of 09/21/17S&P 500: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)


6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 13.9 14.0 11.0 13.3 Sep 21 13.9 14.0 9.4 13.4

Q1Q2

Q3

Q4

2017 By Quarter as of 09/21/17S&P 400: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Sep 14 8.7 6.1 5.4 17.5 Sep 21 8.7 6.3 4.8 17.3

Q1

Q2Q3

Q4



yardeni.com

S&P 600: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly)

S&P 500/400/600 2017 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

2550

2950

150

550

950

1350

1750

2150

2550

2950

9/25S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES(daily, ratio scale)

S&P Stock Price IndexesS&P 500 LargeCap (2496.66)S&P 400 MidCap (1771.85)S&P 600 SmallCap (877.30)

Source: Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 12.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201810

35

60

85

110

135

160

10

35

60

85

110

135

1609/21S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS

(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Earnings*S&P 500 LargeCap (141.59)S&P 400 MidCap (99.63)S&P 600 SmallCap (45.08)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 13.

S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

1675

275

475

675

875

1075

1275

1475

1675

9/14

S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES(dollars per share, ratio scale)

Forward Revenues*S&P 500 LargeCap (1267)S&P 400 MidCap (1398)S&P 600 SmallCap (880)

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 14.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

9/14

yardeni.com

S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent)

S&P 500 (11.1)S&P 400 (6.7)S&P 600 (4.9)

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 15.

S&P 500/400/600 Forward Revenues & Margins



1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20188

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

9/22

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*(weekly)

S&P 500 LargeCap (17.7)S&P 400 MidCap (17.8)S&P 600 SmallCap (19.4)

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 16.

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

9/25

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)


* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

yardeni.com

Figure 17.

S&P 500/400/600 P/Es



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

9/14

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(weekly)


* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 18.

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

9/22

FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*(daily)


* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

yardeni.com

Figure 19.

S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales



Figure 20.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

130018

9/1417

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201850

75

100

125

150

175

50

75

100

125

150

175

9/2117 18


Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings

Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20186

7

8

9

10

11

12

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

18

9/14

17

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins


S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins



Figure 21.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

18 9/1417

S&P 400


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201830

50

70

90

110

130

30

50

70

90

110

130

9/2117 18



Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20184

5

6

7

8

4

5

6

7

8

189/1417

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins





Figure 22.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018350

450

550

650

750

850

950

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

17

18

9/14S&P 600 REVENUES PER SHARE(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)

Consensus ForecastsAnnual Revenues

Forward Revenues*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201815

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

9/211718



Forward Earnings*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20183

4

5

6

7

3

4

5

6

7

17

18

9/14

yardeni.com


Consensus Forecasts


Annual Margins





Figure 23.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION

S&P 50009/25/17

S&P 500 Blue AngelsImplied Price Index*09/21/17

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

x10

x12

x14

x16

X18

X20S&P 40009/25/17


2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018150

250

350

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550

650

750

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950

150

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

x10

x12

x14

x16

x18

x20

S&P 60009/25/17


* Implied stock price index calculated using actual 52-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es. Source: Standard & Poor’s and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels



79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010

35

60

85

110

135

160

185210

10

35

60

85

110

135

160

185210

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS& REVENUES PER SHARE

(ratio scale) 9/21

ForwardEarnings* (141.6)

ForwardRevenues*Divided by 10 (126.7)

7% GrowthRate**

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

Figure 24.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

11

12 1314

15

18

16

17

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S&P 500 CONSENSUS ANNUAL OPERATING EARNINGS GROWTH FORECASTS(percent)

2011 (14.9)2012 (6.0)2013 (6.1)2014 (7.0)2015 (0.5)2016 (1.5)2017 (10.6)2018 (11.0)

Latest data thru 09/14/17

Figure 25.

S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings



Figure 26.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV2014 2015 2016 2017

0

10

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80

0

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9/14

S&P 500 SECTORS:FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials

Information TechnologyMaterialsReal EstateTelecommunication ServicesUtilities


-20

0

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40

60

80

100

120

140

-20

0

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9/14

S&P 400 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials



-40

-20

0

20

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100

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140

-40

-20

0

20

40

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80

100

120

140

9/14

S&P 600 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth CareIndustrials


* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings



Figure 27.

I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II2015 2016 2017 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

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50

60

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9/14

S&P 500 SECTORS:2017 EARNINGS PER SHARE*

Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care

IndustrialsInformation TechnologyMaterialsReal EstateTelecommunication ServicesUtilities


-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-20

0

20

40

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160

9/14

S&P 400 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care



-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

9/14

S&P 600 SECTORS: Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer StaplesEnergyFinancialsHealth Care


* Consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Annual Earnings: 2017



Figure 28.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1860

80

100

120

140

16017 18

9/14S&P 500(forward earnings*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward earnings

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813

19

25

31

3717 18 9/14INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

17

29

4153

17 189/14

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

27

39

51

63

17 18 9/14INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813

19

25

31

37

17 18 9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

11

16

21

2617

18 9/14MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

28

48

6888

108

1718

9/14

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

3

5

7

9/1417 18REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

20

32

4456

189/1417

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 187

9

11

13

15

1718

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820

32

44

56

6817 18

9/14HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1811

12

13

14

15

16

1718 9/14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings



Figure 29.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1718 9/14

S&P 500(forward revenues*)

Annual consensusestimatesForward revenues

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18210

250

290

330

370

1718

9/14INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

325

400

475

550

17

18 9/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18125

175

225

275

325

1718 9/14

INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

250

300

350

400

450

1718 9/14CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18160

180

200

220

240

17

189/14

MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18275

375

475

575

675

775

1718

9/14

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820

25

30

35

40

45

9/14

17 18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18120

160

200

240

280

18

9/14

17

FINANCIALS


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1895

105

115

125

135

17 18

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18175

275

375

475

575675

17 18 9/14HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red). Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18120

135

150

165

180

17

189/14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Revenues



Figure 30.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

17 189/14

S&P 500(profit margin, percent)

AnnualForward* (11.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

1718

9/14

INDUSTRIALS

(9.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

3

5

7

9

11

1718

9/14


(7.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

17 18 9/14

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(20.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.517 18

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

(6.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

6

8

10

12

1718 9/14

MATERIALS

(10.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

3

6

9

12

15

17 189/14

ENERGY

(4.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

9

12

15

18

21

24

9/1417 18

REAL ESTATE

(17.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

189/14

17FINANCIALS

(16.4)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

1718 9/14


(11.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 189.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

17 18

9/14

HEALTH CARE

(10.7)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

9

10

11

12

17

189/14

UTILITIES

(11.3)yardeni.com

S&P 500 Sectors Forward Profit Margin



Figure 31.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

9/14S&P 500(forward P/E) P/E (17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

11

14

17

20

9/14INDUSTRIALS

(17.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

30

9/14


(19.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

12

16

20

24

9/14

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY(18.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

12

14

16

18

20

22

9/14CONSUMER STAPLES

(19.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

MATERIALS(17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

15

25

35

45

55

65

9/14

ENERGY(27.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

25

35

45

55

65

75

9/14

REAL ESTATE(38.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

9/14

FINANCIALS


(13.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(12.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

9/14

HEALTH CARE

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s.

(16.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

9/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(18.2)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es



Figure 32.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

9/14S&P 500(forward P/S ratio)

P/S (1.97)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

9/14INDUSTRIALS

(1.68)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

9/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(1.48)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.09/14INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(3.79)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES(1.34)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.009/14MATERIALS

(1.88)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

9/14

ENERGY(1.31)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9/14REAL ESTATE

(6.84)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

9/14FINANCIALS


(2.24)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

9/14

HEALTH CARE

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

(1.79)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.259/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(2.05)

S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Sales



Figure 33.

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

S&P 500

Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (3.1)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(5.4)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep


(-0.4)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep


(14.8)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-40-30-20-10

010203040

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-1.3)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep

MATERIALS

(-0.8)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep

ENERGY

(-22.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(-1.1)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040

Sep

FINANCIALS

Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016(8.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-40-30-20-10010203040

Sep


(-0.9)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

HEALTH CARE

* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

(9.2)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-40-30-20-10010203040

Sep

UTILITIES

(1.0)

S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index



Figure 34.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

S&P 500

Net Revenue Revisions Index*NERI (6.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(10.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep


(3.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep


(16.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(5.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep

MATERIALS

(7.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep

ENERGY

(-27.6)

95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(0.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

FINANCIALS

(3.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep


(-7.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

SepHEALTH CARE


(12.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

UTILITIES

(-1.4)

S&P 500 Sectors Net Revenue Revisions Index



Figure 35.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1830

50

70

90

11017 18 9/14S&P 400

(forward earnings)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

25

35

45

5565

17 18 9/14INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 189

19

29

394959

17 18 9/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1830

50

70

90

110130

1718 9/14INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1825

45

65

85

105

1718


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 189

14

19

24

2934

17 18 9/14MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-25

0

25

50

75

100

125

17

18 9/14

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182

4

6

8

10

9/1417

18REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

25

35

45

5565

17 18

9/14FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-20

-10

0

10

20

30

17 18

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

35

55

7595



06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1813

16

19

22

25

2817 18 9/14UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 36.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18600

750

900

1050

120013501500 18 9/1417S&P 400

(forward revenues*)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300

400

500

600

700800900

1718 9/14INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

400

550

700

8501000

1718 9/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18500

900

1300

1700

210017 18

9/14INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18600

1200

1800

2400

3000

1718

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

250

300

350

400450500

17 18

9/14MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

500

750

100012501500

17

189/14

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1825

35

45

55

65

9/14

17 18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

250

300

350

400

450

18

9/14

17

FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18100

300

500

7009001100

17 189/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

600

1000

14001800


* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red).Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18225

250

275

300

325

17

18

9/14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 37.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

5

6

7

8

9

18 9/1417

S&P 400(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

17

189/14

INDUSTRIALS

(6.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

17 18 9/14


(5.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

17 18

9/14


(6.9)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182

3

4

5

6

7

17 189/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

(4.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

5

6

7

8

9

17 189/14

MATERIALS

(6.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1718 9/14

ENERGY(0.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

9/1417 18

REAL ESTATE

(13.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 186

9

12

15

18

18 9/1417

FINANCIALS

(14.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-4

0

4

8

12

17 18

9/14


(-1.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

5

6

7

8

17

189/14

HEALTH CARE

(6.4)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

6

7

8

9

10

11

1718

9/14UTILITIES

(10.3) yardeni.com




Figure 38.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

9/14

S&P 400(forward P/E)

P/E (18.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

INDUSTRIALS(18.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14


(14.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

MATERIALS(15.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

20

40

60

80

9/14

ENERGY(60.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

20

30

40

50

60

9/14

REAL ESTATE(31.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14

FINANCIALS(15.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185101520253035404550

3/16TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

(NA)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

30

9/14

HEALTH CARE


(18.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

12

16

20

24

9/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(20.7)




Figure 39.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

9/14

S&P 400(forward P/S ratio)

P/S (1.25)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

9/14INDUSTRIALS(1.11)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

9/14


(0.82)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

9/14INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

(1.28)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

9/14

MATERIALS(1.00)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

9/14

ENERGY(0.62)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

6

7

9/14

REAL ESTATE(4.30)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

9/14

FINANCIALS(2.28)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

9/14

HEALTH CARE


(1.20)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.259/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(2.14)




Figure 40.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

S&P 400

Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (-0.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(9.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep


(-0.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep


(5.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-1.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-50-40-30-20-100102030

Sep

MATERIALS

(-4.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

ENERGY

(-12.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-50-40-30-20-100102030

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(-4.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

FINANCIALS

(0.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

Sep


(-4.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

HEALTH CARE


(-3.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

UTILITIES

(-2.2)




Figure 41.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

S&P 400


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(12.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep


(-2.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep


(4.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(-3.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Sep

MATERIALS

(3.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

ENERGY

(-11.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(1.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

FINANCIALS

(3.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep


(-24.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

HEALTH CARE


(1.1)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

UTILITIES

(1.2)




Figure 42.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

20

30

405060

17 18 9/14S&P 600(forward earnings)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

30

45

60

75

9/1417 18INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

15

25

3545

9/1417 18CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

15

25

3545

9/1417 18INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

35

55

7595

1159/14

1718CONSUMER STAPLES

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

15

25

3545

9/1417 18MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-50-25

0255075

100125150

9/1417

18

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

5.5

10.515.520.5

9/1417 18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

25

40

557085

9/1417 18

FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-.25

.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

9/1417 18


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1815

35

55

7595

9/14

17 18HEALTH CARE


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1820

30

40

50

9/1417 18UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 43.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300

450

600

750

9001050

189/14

17

S&P 600(forward revenues*)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18400

600

800

1000

12001400

17 189/14

INDUSTRIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300

500

700

900

1100

17


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18125

225

325

425

525625

1718

9/14INFORMATI0N TECHNOLOGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18500

1300

2100

290037004500

17 18


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18300

400

500

600

700

800

17 18 9/14MATERIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

1250

2250

32504250

1718

9/14

ENERGY

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1825

30

35

40

45

5055

9/1417

18

REAL ESTATE

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18200

250

300

350

400

450

1718

9/14FINANCIALS

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

6

111621

17 18 9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

750

1250

17502250

1718

9/14HEALTH CARE

* Time-weighted average (in blue) of the current year’s and next year’s consensus revenues estimates (in red).Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18250

325

400

475

550625700

17

189/14

UTILITIES

yardeni.com




Figure 44.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

18

9/14

17

S&P 600(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

1718

9/14

INDUSTRIALS

(4.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

6

17

189/14


(3.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

4

5

6

7

8

9

1718 9/14


(7.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

17

18

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

(2.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182

3

4

5

6

7

17 189/14

MATERIALS

(4.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1718 9/14

ENERGY

(0.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

5

10

15

20

25

30

17 189/14

REAL ESTATE

(12.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

17 189/14

FINANCIALS

(14.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-5

0

5

10

15

17 189/14


(3.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182

3

4

5

6

7

8

1718

9/14

HEALTH CARE

(3.3)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

6

8

10

12

17

18

9/14

UTILITIES

(10.1) yardeni.com




Figure 45.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 188

12

16

20

24

9/14

S&P 600(forward P/E)

P/E (20.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

INDUSTRIALS(18.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(16.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

MATERIALS(16.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

20

40

60

80

9/14

ENERGY(60.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

20

30

40

50

60

70

9/14

REAL ESTATE(35.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14

FINANCIALS(15.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185101520253035404550

9/14TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES

(40.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

30

35

409/14HEALTH CARE


(36.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

259/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(23.6)




Figure 46.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.4

.6

.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

9/14

S&P 600(forward P/S ratio by sector)

P/S (0.97)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.4

.6

.8

1.0

9/14

INDUSTRIALS(0.80)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

9/14


(0.54)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.2

.4

.6

.8

1.0

9/14

MATERIALS(0.73)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

9/14

ENERGY(0.82)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

6

7

9/14

REAL ESTATE(4.47)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

9/14

FINANCIALS(2.28)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

9/14


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

9/14

HEALTH CARE


(1.22)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.59/14

yardeni.com

UTILITIES(2.38)




Figure 47.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

S&P 600

Net Earnings Revisions Index*NERI (-1.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(-0.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep


(-2.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep


(4.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(1.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

MATERIALS

(-2.9)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

ENERGY

(-14.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(-7.8)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

Sep

FINANCIALS

(-0.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep


(-6.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Sep

HEALTH CARE


(-1.5)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-20-15-10-505101520

Sep

UTILITIES

(4.3)




Figure 48.

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

S&P 600


04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep

INDUSTRIALS

(7.7)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep


(-0.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

Sep


(6.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

CONSUMER STAPLES

(7.6)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-45

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

Sep

MATERIALS

(6.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep

ENERGY

(-10.4)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

REAL ESTATE

(5.3)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep

FINANCIALS

(1.2)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Sep


(10.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Sep

HEALTH CARE


(2.0)

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Sep

UTILITIES

(3.9)




Figure 49.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

9/14S&P 500/400/600(profit margin)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

3

5

7

9

11

9/14INDUSTRIALS

(9.6)(6.1)(4.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

3

5

7

9


(7.6)(5.6)(3.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

5

10

15

20

25


(20.6)(6.9)(7.1)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

2

4

6

8

10

12

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES (6.8)(4.3)(2.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

2

4

6

8

10

129/14MATERIALS

(10.5)(6.4)(4.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

9/14

ENERGY(4.8)(0.4)(0.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

5

10

15

20

25

30

9/14

REAL ESTATE

(17.6)(13.8)(12.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

FINANCIALS(16.4)(14.8)(14.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-5

0

5

10

15

20

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(11.4)(-1.5)(3.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 183

6

9

12

15

9/14

HEALTH CARE (10.7)(6.4)(3.3)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 184

6

8

10

129/14UTILITIES

(11.3)(10.3)(10.1) yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Profit Margin



Figure 50.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

S&P 500/400/600(forward P/Es)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

INDUSTRIALS

(17.5)(18.1)(18.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

30

9/14


(19.4)(14.6)(16.6)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

30

9/14


(18.4)(18.7)(17.8)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

15

20

25

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES(19.7)(18.7)(18.4)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

MATERIALS

(17.8)(15.6)(16.3)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

40

50

9/14

ENERGY(27.5)(45.0)(NA)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810

20

30

40

50

60

70

9/14

REAL ESTATE

(38.9)(31.1)(35.2)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

30

35

9/14

FINANCIALS(13.6)(15.4)(15.7)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

40

50

60

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(12.5)(NA)(40.0)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

10

20

30

40

9/14

HEALTH CARE

(16.8)(18.6)(36.7)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 185

10

15

20

25

9/14

UTILITIES

(18.2)(20.7)(23.6) yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Es



Figure 51.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.00.25.50.75

1.001.251.501.752.002.25

9/14S&P 500/400/600(forward P/Sales)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.00.25.50.751.001.251.501.752.00

9/14INDUSTRIALS

(1.68)(1.11)(0.80)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.4

.8

1.2

1.69/14CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY

(1.48)(0.82)(0.54)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.00

.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50


(3.79)(1.28)(1.26)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.00

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

9/14

CONSUMER STAPLES

(1.34)(0.81)(0.46)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.09/14MATERIALS

(1.88)(1.00)(0.73)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180

1

2

3

9/14

ENERGY(1.31)(0.62)(0.82)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 181

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9/14REAL ESTATE

(6.8)(4.3)(4.5)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

9/14

FINANCIALS (2.24)(2.28)(2.28)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.0

.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

9/14

TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES(1.43)(0.27)(1.51)

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

9/14

HEALTH CARE(1.79)(1.20)(1.22)


06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

9/14UTILITIES

(2.05)(2.14)(2.38)

yardeni.com

S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward P/Sales



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