S&P 500 Analysts' Consensus Earnings SquigglesS&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles...
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S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles (yearly & quarterly, since 1994) Yardeni Research, Inc. May 11, 2020 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected] Joe Abbott 732-497-5306 [email protected] Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com thinking outside the box
Transcript of S&P 500 Analysts' Consensus Earnings SquigglesS&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles...
S&P 500Analysts’ ConsensusEarnings Squiggles
(yearly & quarterly, since 1994)Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 11, 2020
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2020 1S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2019 2S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2018 3S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2017 4S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2016 5S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2015 6S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2014 7S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2013 2S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2012 3S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2011 4S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2010 5S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2009 6S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2008 7S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2007 8S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2006 9S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2005 10S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2004 11S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2003 12S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2002 13S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2001 14S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2000 15S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1999 16S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1998 17S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1997 18S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1996 19S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1995 20S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1994 21
I II III IV I II III IV I II2019 2020 2021
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2020 2021 Frwd Apr 30 130.90 168.04 143.76 May 7 128.02 166.03 141.91
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2020(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus ForecastsAnnual Earnings
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2019 2020 2021
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Apr 30 32.70 25.91 33.56 37.83 May 7 33.19 24.47 32.38 37.13
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Q2
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2020 By Quarter as of 05/07/20
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGSPER SHARE:QUARTERLY FORECASTS 2020(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly)
Figure 2.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2020
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2018 2019 2020
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18 19
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2020 2021 Frwd Apr 30 130.90 168.04 143.76 May 7 128.02 166.03 141.91
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2019(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2018 2019 2020
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Q1
Q2
Q3 Q4
2019 By Quarter
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: QUARTERLY FORECASTS 2019(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly)
Figure 4.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2019
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I II III IV I II III IV I II2017 2018 2019
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2020 2021 Frwd Apr 30 130.90 168.04 143.76 May 7 128.02 166.03 141.91
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2018(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2017 2018 2019
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Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 By Quarter
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2018(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly)
Figure 6.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2018
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2016 2017 2018
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2016 2017 2018
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Q2
Q3
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2017 By Quarter
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2017(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Figure 8.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2017
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I II III IV I II III IV I II2015 2016 2017
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2016(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly) Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2015 2016 2017
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Q1
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Q4 2016 By Quarter
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2016(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Figure 10.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2016
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2014 2015 2016
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2015(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2014 2015 2016
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Q1
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2015 By Quarter
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2015(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Figure 12.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2015
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2013 2014 2015
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2014(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2013 2014 2015
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Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2014(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Figure 14.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2014
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I II III IV I II III IV I II2012 2013 2014
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2013(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*
Annual Earnings
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2012 2013 2014
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2013 By Quarter
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2013*(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Figure 4.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2013
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2011 2012 2013
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2012(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts52-week Forward*
Annual Estimates
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2011 2012 2013
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2012 by Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
Figure 6.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2012
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I II III IV I II III IV I II2010 2011 2012
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2011(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts52-week Forward*
Annual Estimates
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 7.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2010 2011 2012
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2011 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 8.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2011
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2009 2010 2011
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2010(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts52-week Forward*
Annual Estimates
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 9.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2009 2010 2011
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2010 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 10.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2010
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2008 2009 2010
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2009(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts52-week Forward*
Annual Estimates
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 11.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2008 2009 2010
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2009 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 12.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2009
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2007 2008 2009
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2008(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 13.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2007 2008 2009
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2008 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 14.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2008
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I II III IV I II III IV I II2006 2007 2008
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2007(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 15.
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2007 By Quarter
Q2
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 16.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2007
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2005 2006 2007
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2006(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 17.
III IV I II III IV I II2005 2006 2007
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2006 By Quarter
Q2
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 18.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2006
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2004 2005 2006
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2005(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2004 2005 2006
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2005 By Quarter
Q2
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2005
Page 10 / May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2003 2004 2005
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2004(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2003 2004 2005
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(weekly, analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2004 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2004
Page 11 / May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2002 2003 2004
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2003(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 23.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2002 2003 2004
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S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2003 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2003
Page 12 / May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2001 2002 2003
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2002(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 25.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2001 2002 2003
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Q1
Q2 Q3Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2002 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2002
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2000 2001 2002
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
99
00
01
02
03
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2001(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
I II III IV I II III IV I II2000 2001 2002
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Q1Q2
Q3Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2001 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2001
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1999 2000 2001
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
98
99
00
0102
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-2000(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1999 2000 2001
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
2000 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 30.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 2000
Page 15 / May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1998 1999 2000
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
9798
99
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1999(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts52-week Forward*
Annual Estimates
00
01
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 31.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1998 1999 2000
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1999 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 32.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1999
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1997 1998 1999
40
45
50
55
60
40
45
50
55
60
96
97
98
99
00S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1998(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward*
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 33.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1997 1998 1999
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1998 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 34.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1998
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1996 1997 1998
35
40
45
50
55
60
35
40
45
50
55
60
95
96
97
99
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1997(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
52-week Forward* 98
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 35.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1996 1997 1998
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
13.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1997 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 36.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1997
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1995 1996 1997
30
35
40
45
50
55
30
35
40
45
50
55
94
95
96
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1996(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
12-month Forward*
97
98
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 37.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1995 1996 1997
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
Q1
Q2Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1996 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 38.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1996
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1994 1995 1996
25
30
35
40
45
50
25
30
35
40
45
50
93
94
95
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1995(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
12-month Forward*96
97
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 39.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1994 1995 1996
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1995 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 40.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1995
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1993 1994 1995
20
25
30
35
40
45
20
25
30
35
40
45
92
93
94
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE-1994(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Estimates
12-month Forward*
95
96
* Time-weighted average of current and next years’ consensus earnings estimates.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 41.
I II III IV I II III IV I II1993 1994 1995
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY FORECASTS*(analysts’ average forecasts in dollars)
1994 By Quarter
* Consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share for each quarter shown.Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
yardeni.com
Figure 42.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles: 1994
Page 21 / May 11, 2020 / S&P 500 Analysts’ Consensus Earnings Squiggles www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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