Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8%...
Transcript of Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8%...
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Southwest IDEAS Conference
November 15, 2012
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Forward Looking Statement
Certain statements in this report, including information incorporated by reference, are “forward‐looking statements” as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”). The PSLRA provides a safe harbor under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for forward‐looking statements. These statements relate to our intentions, beliefs, projections, estimations or forecasts of future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry's actual results, levels of activity, or performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward‐looking statements. In some cases, you can identify forward‐looking statements by use of words such as "may," "will," "could," "would," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "target," "project," "intend," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential," "pro forma," "seek," "likely" or "continue" or other comparable terminology. These statements are only predictions, and we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. We undertake no obligation, other than as may be required under the federal securities laws, to publicly update or revise any forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Factors, that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected, forecasted or estimated by us in forward‐looking statements are discussed in further detail in Selective’s public filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. These risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a continually changing business environment, and new risk factors emerge from time‐to‐time. We can neither predict such new risk factors nor can we assess the impact, if any, of such new risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor or combination of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward‐looking statements in this report. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward‐looking events discussed in this report might not occur.
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Foundation for SuccessTony HarnettSVP, Corporate Controller
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Who We Are
• $1.5B 2011 NPW• Super‐regional carrier• Standard lines distributed through
independent agents• Excess & Surplus (E&S) lines
distributed through wholesale agents
• 80% standard commercial lines• History of financial strength
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Business Diversification
• 22 state footprint• 1,100 independent agency relationships• Average account size of $9,000
Standard Commercial Lines
• 13 state footprint• 600 independent agents• Agents want joint C/L & P/L markets• Flood 2011 net income of $11M
Personal Lines
•Right time to enter business•Wholesale agents have controlled binding authority and no claims authority
•Within E&S, lower hazard and dollar limits•Average policy size of $2,200
E&S Contract Binding Authority
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Diversification Leads to Profit Opportunities
80%
18%
2%
65‐70%
20%
10‐15%
Net Premiums Written %
Standard Commercial Personal Excess & Surplus
2011Projected5‐Year View
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• Underwriting stability• Disciplined reserving• Conservative investments• Benefits of leverage
Financial Strength is our Foundation for Success
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85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6/30/12YTD
Statutory Combined Ratio – SIGI vs. Industry
SIGIIndustry
(STD. DEV 3.8)(STD. DEV 4.3)
Source: A.M. Best, IIINote: Industry excluding Mortgage and Financial Guaranty Segments since 2007
Underwriting Stability
%
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 6/30/12YTD
SIGI Industry
Impact of CATs on Combined Ratio
SIGI Avg = 2.5 ptsInd. Avg. = 4.6 pts
Source: AM Best
pts
SIGI September YTD CAT Losses of 4.0 pts
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Managing Increased Catastrophes
• In 2011, increased CAT reinsurance program from $360M in excess of $40M to $435M in excess of $40M
• Personal Lines• Maximizing rate in homeowners• Age of roof restrictions• Deductible changes
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‐6%
‐4%
‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 6/30/12YTD
Industry SIGISource: AM Best, IIINote: Industry excluding Mortgage and Financial Guaranty Segments*2010 Industry development includes $4B charge from AIG
Calendar Year Development(Favorable)/Ad
verse Po
ints
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Bonds 89%
Short‐Term 4%
Alternatives 3%
Equities 4%
$4.3B Invested AssetsSeptember 30, 2012
“AA‐” Avg Rating
Conservative Investment Portfolio
• Well diversified, laddered portfolio
• Deployed high dividend yield equities strategy in 2011
• Only 1.7% of bond portfolio rated “BB” & below
• 3.5 year average duration, excluding short‐term
• Investment leverage of 3.85 x yield of 2.3% ~ 9% ROE
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1.91.8
1.71.6
1.5 1.5
1.7
1.5
1.31.4
1.31.2
1.11.0
0.9 0.9 0.90.8
0.70.8
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
SIGI Industry
Selective’s Use of Underwriting Leverage
Sources: ISO, AM Best, IIINote: Industry excluding Mortgage and Financial Guaranty Segments since 2007
Prem
ium to
Surplus Ratio
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Impact of Leverage
Combined Ratio Required for 12% ROE
~95%
70
80
90
100
2011
SIGI Industry
Industry Source: AM Best
Investment Leverage 3.7xU/W Leverage 1.4x
Investment Leverage 2.4xU/W Leverage 0.8x
~87%
%
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103.3
~95.0
85
90
95
100
105
110
1156.5
(2.0)
1.0(12.5)(1.5)
Combined Ratio Improvement Plan
*Adjusted for excess CATS and favorable reserve development
%
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Strategic OverviewJennifer DiBerardinoSVP, Investor Relations & Treasurer
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What Makes Us Unique
• Empowered decision makers
• Superior agency relationships
• Sophisticated tools
• Focus on customer experience
• Excellent risk management
Culture of Continuous Improvement
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• Franchise value• Greater share of wallet• Strong feedback loop
Relationships with the Highest Caliber Agents
2011• $1.5M NPW per agency• 8.3/10 on agency survey
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A Regional with National Capabilities
Capabilities of a National• Sophisticated pricing• Fraud and recovery models• Advanced data and technology
Nimbleness of a Regional• Relationships• Local decision making
Selective:A Unique
Super‐Regional
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Pricing Sophistication – Dynamic Portfolio Manager
What if?
• ~20 factors driven through DPM generate individual policy guidance and portfolio level impact• Line of business and segment strategy• CAT modeling• Predictive modeling• Agency profitability• Risk characteristics• “What‐if” profitability analysis of an underwriter’s book
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Pricing Sophistication – Dynamic Portfolio Manager
60%
70%
80%
90%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Above Average Average Below Average Low
Commercial Lines Pric
e
September 2012 YTD Pricing by Retention Group
Retention
September YTD Price = 6.0%
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60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2Q:09 1Q:10 1Q:11 1Q:12 3Q:12
Commercial Lines Pric
e Relationships Drive Pricing Through the Cycle
14 Consecutive Quarters of Positive Price
Qua
rterly Reten
tion
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Homeowners• Increasing rate• By‐peril rating• Encourage whole account customers
Personal Lines Sophistication
Auto• Increasing rate• Continued mix improvements• Underwriting restrictions• Claims initiatives• Age of book
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Homeowners Pricing
65%
75%
85%
95%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 9/30/12 YTD
Rene
wal Pure Price
Retention
Total impact of all 2012 rate increases ~ 11%Targeting upper‐80’s combined ratio in normal CAT year
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Personal Auto Pricing
65%
75%
85%
95%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2008 2009 2010 2011 9/30/12 YTD
Rene
wal Pure Price
Total impact of all 2012 rate increases ~ 6%
Retention
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Achieving Better Outcomes in Claims
2011
20122013
• Fraud detection model • Recovery model• Triage • Comprehensive data management tools
• Complex claims• Medical management
Projected 3 Point Loss Cost Savings
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Why Invest in Selective?
• Proven ability to manage the market cycle
• Growth at the right time• Grew faster and longer inlast hard market
• Strong balance sheet limits downside
• Attractive valuation with~3% dividend yield
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Financial Highlights 2008 – Q3 2012
2008 2009 2010 2011 Q1:12 Q2:12 Q3:12
NPW Growth (4.5)% (4.7)% (2.3)% 6.8% 16.1% 13.6% 13.5%
Operating EPS* $1.43 $1.39 $1.38 $0.38 $0.28 $0.01 $0.34
Net Income per Share* $0.82 $0.68 $1.23 $0.40 $0.33 $0.01 $0.33
Dividend per Share $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.52 $0.13 $0.13 $0.13
Book Value per Share* $15.81 $17.80 $18.97 $19.45 $19.76 $19.75 $20.44
Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6%
Operating Return on Equity* 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 0.1% 6.9%
Statutory Combined Ratio ‐ Total 99.2% 100.5% 101.6% 106.7% 99.1% 106.2% 98.4%
‐ Commercial Lines 98.5% 99.8% 100.8% 104.3% 99.2% 105.6% 100.5%
‐ Personal Lines 103.7% 104.4% 106.4% 117.3% 97.7% 109.2% 88.8%
GAAP Combined Ratio – Total* 100.0% 99.9% 101.4% 107.2% 100.4% 106.9% 99.8%
‐ Commercial Lines* 99.2% 98.8% 100.0% 104.8% 101.4% 106.1% 101.9%
‐ Personal Lines* 105.1% 105.6% 108.3% 117.8% 95.5% 110.6% 89.9%
*Historical values have been restated to reflect impact of DAC accounting change
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Net Operating Cash Flow
386
241 228
159123
40
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($ in millions)
25%16% 16%
11%
Cash Flow as % of NPW
8%
YTD September 2012: $168M
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Investment Income – After‐tax
134
10596
111 111
405060708090100110120130140
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
($ in millions)
YTD September 2012: $74M
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3%
16%
4%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1% Probability 0.4% Probability
Long Term Near Term
Conservative Reinsurance Program
Percentages are after tax and include applicable reinstatement premium.Data as of 7/11; Equity data as of December 31, 2011.
% of Equity at RiskBlended Model Results (RMS v11 & AIR v13)
CAT cover: $435M in excess of $40M
31
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26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 9/30/12 YTD
Focused Expense Management
Peers include CINF, CNA, HIG, STFC , THG, TRV, UFCS, and WRBSource: SNL Financial; includes policyholder dividends
GA
AP
Exp
ense
Rat
io
SIGI Peer Median
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Insurance Operations Productivity
($ in 000s) %
*Excludes E&S Operations
797 797766
761791
816
2929.5
3030.5
3131.532
32.533
300
500
700
900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 9/30/12*
NPW per Employee Statutory Expense Ratio
![Page 34: Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6% Operating Return on Equity* 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 0.1% 6.9% Statutory](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050107/5f456721c6b59a49605282ae/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
101.1
98.5
93.9 93.3 93.895.0
96.4
99.397.5 97.9 98.7
1.12.4
1.5 0.31.2 0.9 2.1
0.53.3
6.43.1
85
90
95
100
105
110
115%
104.3102.2
100.9
Impact of Catastrophe LossesCombined Ratio excluding CATS
95.4
Statutory Combined Ratios
93.695.0 95.9 98.5
99.8 100.8
Commercial Lines Profitability
101.8
![Page 35: Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6% Operating Return on Equity* 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 0.1% 6.9% Statutory](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050107/5f456721c6b59a49605282ae/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Contractors34%
Manufacturing & Mercantile
41%
Community and Public Services
23%
Bonds2%
Premium by Strategic Business Unit2011 Standard Commercial Lines
Direct Premium Written
![Page 36: Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6% Operating Return on Equity* 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 0.1% 6.9% Statutory](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050107/5f456721c6b59a49605282ae/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
General Liability29%
Auto23%BOP
6%
Bonds2%
Other3%
Commercial Property16%
Workers Compensation
21%
Premium by Line of Business2011 Commercial Lines Net Premium Written
![Page 37: Southwest IDEAS Conference/media/Files/S/Selective-V2/...Return on Equity* 4.7% 4.1% 6.8% 2.1% 6.8% 0.1% 6.6% Operating Return on Equity* 8.2% 8.3% 7.7% 2.0% 5.7% 0.1% 6.9% Statutory](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050107/5f456721c6b59a49605282ae/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Long‐Term Shareholder Value Creation
11.5712.96
14.9616.44
17.8718.82
15.8117.80
18.97 19.4520.44
0.300.31
0.350.40
0.440.49
0.520.52
0.52 0.520.52
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep‐12
Book Value Dividend
Per S
hare
*Annualized indicated dividendNote: Book value restated for change in deferred policy acquisition costs (2002‐2006 Estimated)
*