Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council...
Transcript of Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council...
Southwest Florida Housing Market Briefing Women’s Council of Realtors
March 14, 2014
David Cobb Regional Director South Florida 239-220-7023 [email protected]
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
This measurement of the market covers 4.5 million lots in 48,000 subdivisions In 41 markets in 19 states - About 65%-70% of all construction in MSAs
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
4th Quarter GDP Growth – Robust!
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%GDP Quarterly Growth Rate
4.1%
3.5% FED TARGET
Source: U. S. Dept. of Commerce
4Q2013: 3.2%
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Fed GDP Projection for 2014
Source: Federal Reserve
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Job Growth is Fair to Middling …
(7,000,000)
(6,000,000)
(5,000,000)
(4,000,000)
(3,000,000)
(2,000,000)
(1,000,000)
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000Annual Job Growth, 2005- 2013
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
+2,193,000 YOY
Almost all jobs lost during recession have been recovered, but…
December: 84,000 January: 129,000 February: 175,000
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Job Growth is Concentrated in (low wage) Services Sector
Government
Natural Resources & Mining
Information
Other Services
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Construction
Leisure & Hospitality
Education & Health Services
Transportation, Trade & Utilities
Prof & Business Services
(100,000) - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000
Employment Growth by Industry, 4Q 2013
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Unemployment Rate Trend…a slow decline
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%Unemployment Rate Trend
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
6.7%
13.3%
Official Unemployment Rate
Expanded Unemployment Rate
(U-6)
U-6: “Marginally attached”, discouraged and part-time seeking full-time workers
February 2014: 6.7%
February 2014: 12.6%
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Consumer Confidence Index
Gov’t shutdown effect
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13
Consumer Confidence Index, Last 12 Months
Source: Conference Board
February: 78.1
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Consumer Confidence Index – Home Buying Plans (New, Existing and Undecided)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Consumer Confidence Index - Undecided Home Buying PlansPlan to Buy a Home Plan to Buy Existing Home Plan to Buy a New Home Uncertain Whether New or Existing
%
Source: Conference Board
2.6 Million Undecided Households
8.3M Total
3.8M Resale
1.8M New
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Household Formation is Stalling December 2013: -203,000
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Closings – 6 Year History
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Annual Closings by State
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Annual Starts & Annual Closings by Price Range
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Vacant Developed Lot Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Quarterly Lot Delivery & Starts
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET Finished Vacant Inventory & Months of Supply – 6 Year History
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Finished Months of Supply – South Dade
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
44.5
2002 2003 2004 2005
4.5!
1,312 units of finished, vacant inventory
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
St.Lucie County
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2Q00
4Q00
2Q01
4Q01
2Q02
4Q02
2Q03
4Q03
2Q04
4Q04
2Q05
4Q05
2Q06
Fin/
Vac
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Mon
ths
Finished Vacant Months of Supply
Normal Level
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
NATIONAL HOUSING MARKET 2013 Annual Starts and Closings by Market
3,194 2,864
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
South Florida Starts
Q4: 2,149 Q3: 2,693 2013: 10,086 2012: 7,512
PREVIOUS YEAR OVER QUARTER YEAR
-20.1% +34.2%
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Starts: 2013 versus 2012 Indian River 427 vs 243 +76% St. Lucie 351 vs 147 +139%
Martin 375 vs 264 +42%
Palm Beach 2053 vs 1818 +13%
Dade 2545 vs 1633 +56%
Collier 1482 vs 1082 +37%
Lee 1712 vs 1289 +33%
Broward 1141 vs 1036 +10%
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Naples/Marco Island Job Growth by Industry
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Collier Scorecard 2013 2012 Trend Finished, Vacant MOS: 1.1 1.6 Total Housing MOS: 9.0 8.9 VDL Inventory: 4,357 4,828 Future Lots: 23,080 21,421
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Collier Top Communities 2013 Starts 1. Riverstone – GL 195 2. Fiddler’s Creek – Len, Stock, DRH 110 3. Ave Maria - DW, Len, Pulte, CC Devco 100 4. Lely Resort – Stock, Cordoba 93 5. The Quarry – Pulte 88 6. Verona Walk – DiVosta 84 7. Quail West – multiple bldrs 81 8. Treviso Bay – Lennar, TM 73 9. Reflection Lakes – Lennar 72 10.Summit Place TH – DRH 70
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Collier VDL Inventory
Ave Maria 359
Quail West 361
Arrowhead Reserve 349
Starts: 1482 Housing Inventory: 882 10 MOS VDL Inventory: 4355 38 MOS
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Collier Future Lot Inventory
Ave Maria 9284
Islands of Collier 1486
Esplanade 1760
Total Future Lot Inventory: 23080 Vacant Land: 16587
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Ft. Myers/Cape Coral Job Growth by Industry
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Lee Scorecard 2013 2012 Trend Finished, Vacant MOS: 1.1 1.2 Total Housing MOS: 5.3 6.2 VDL Inventory: 6,794 7,302 Future Lots: 48,519 49,590
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Lee Top Communities 2013 Starts 1. Pelican Preserve – WCI 138 2. Village Walk – DiVosta 135 3. Preserve at Corkscrew – Len, Pulte 115 4. Reflection Isles – Lennar 104 5. Bonita Isles – Minto 90 6. The Forum – Lennar 74 7. Moody River – DRH 72 8. Sandoval – TM 70 9. Bella Terra – Lennar 68 10.Verandah – Kolter, Neal, DRH, custom 66
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Lee VDL Inventory
River Hall 449
Entrada 396
The Grove 539
Starts: 1712 Housing Inventory: 696 7 MOS VDL Inventory: 6794 58 MOS
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Lee Future Lots
Babcock Ranch 19500
Total Future Lot Inventory: 48519 Vacant Land: 40627
Bonita Nat’l 1902
Entrada 1461
Magnolia Landing 1650
Savannah Lakes 1599
Corkscrew Shores 660
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Final Thoughts & Forecast
•2014 Housing Starts up 10-20% (nearly 25% for single-family)
•Sales price appreciation will not match 2013’s pace •Mortgage Rates edge upward, but stay below 6%
•Job Growth will fuel housing recovery, or not
•Household Formation Rate is another key to demand (+1M needed)
South Florida Briefing Copyright 2014 Metrostudy, Inc. March 14, 2014
Types of Market Studies
• Site-Specific Demand/Absorption Studies
• Strategic Studies (nationwide)
• Product Studies
• Portfolio Analyses
• TMA Analyses
• Market and Submarket Forecasts