www.swslim.org.uk

South West England

in Recession

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.ukSource: IMF

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

Public sector net borrowing - £bn

-130

-110

-90

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

3012 month sum

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

Public sector net debt

– < 40% of national income

– This is low Company finances were strong

– Companies were one of the few savers in the economy until recently

– With some notable exceptions, they were not saddled with debt

www.swslim.org.uk

Why are things so uncertain?

A horrible combination

– Global imbalances, commodity spiral and financial crisis

– We’ve not had this before Forces for recovery

– Simulative policy, low oil and commodity prices, weak exchange rate

Forces for depression

– No confidence, rising unemployment, weak exchange rate, rising saving, financial paralysis

www.swslim.org.uk

Why are things so uncertain?Multiple plausible outcomes

Confidence returns

Companies borrow

Banks lend

Ventures profitable

Everyone happy

Confidence fails

Companies retrench

Banks hold back

Businesses fail

Everyone vindicated

But unhappy

www.swslim.org.uk

The Crisis and the South West- productivity

Output per person

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

£

South West UK

www.swslim.org.uk

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Aug-Oct

2006

Dec-Feb2007

Apr-Jun

2007

Aug-Oct

2007

Dec-Feb2008

Apr-Jun

2008

Aug-Oct

2008

South West Great Britain

The Crisis and the South West- unemployment

www.swslim.org.uk

The crisis and the South West- Latest unemployment trends

Claimant count (%)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

UK

South West

www.swslim.org.uk

JSA Register

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Thou

sand

s

2006 / 2007 2007 / 2008 2008 / 2009

www.swslim.org.uk

Employment rate

68 70 72 74 76 78 80

Northern Ireland

North East

Wales

London

North West

West Midlands

Yorkshire & the Humber

East Midlands

Scotland

East of England

South West

South East

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

www.swslim.org.uk

Change in Employment, Age & Gender, May to Nov 08

Young people and men are being particularly affected

-160

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

16-17 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-59F/64M

60F/65M+ 16+

Resid

ents

in e

mplo

ym

ent

(000s)

Men Women

www.swslim.org.uk

Unfilled Vacancies by occupation

Occupation Number

Care assistants and home carers 3,391

Postal workers, mail sorters, messengers, couriers 2,035

Sales and retail assistants 1,411

Sales representatives 1,260

Sales related occupations n.e.c. 1,208

Cleaners, domestics 1,090

Chefs, cooks 683

Security guards and related occupations 639

Kitchen and catering assistants 627

Heavy goods vehicle drivers 603

Marketing associate professionals 536

Nurses 507

www.swslim.org.uk

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1997

Q3

1998

Q3

1999

Q3

2000

Q3

2001

Q3

2002

Q3

2003

Q3

2004

Q3

2005

Q3

2006

Q3

2007

Q3

2008

Q3

2009

Q3

Qu

art

erl

y g

row

th (

%)