South San Francisco Conference Center - WebRTC · PDF fileSouth San Francisco Conference...
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November 27-29, 2012
South San Francisco Conference Center
Service Providers and OTT: WebRTC as a Game Changer?
Dean Bubley
Founder & Director
Disruptive Analysis
November 28, 2012
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About Disruptive Analysis
• London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm • Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent • Advisor to MNOs, vendors, regulators & investors • Focus on 3G, 4G, operator strategies, VoIP, OTT, disruption • Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012 • Workshops on Future of Voice & #TelcoOTT
– With Martin Geddes Consulting (credited for various slides here) – Next event in London & US in H1’13 (futureofvoice.com)
Twitter @disruptivedean . Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
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It’s all looking pretty grim anyway
Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation
Regulation & competitive impacts
Weak content & VAS propositions
Economic pressures
Ecosystem competition
Connecting the last unconnected
Smartphones & data growth
Better segmentation, pricing & promotion
Innovative services & enablers
Embracing & exploiting fragmentation
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“It’s all those nasty OTTs’ fault!!”
STOP looking for a scapegoat & take responsibility
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Voice ≠ Telephony
• Now: 2G & 3G • Future: Smartphones & LTE
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Video, context, sense Video
Gaming, CEBP, surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail Conferencing
PTT
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Service
e.g. Telephony
Product
e.g. Skype, IP-PBX
Feature
e.g. Zynga IM
Function
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A telephony demand cliff?
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Telephony: Catastrophe imminent?
Price & revenue Demand Supply
Core question: Can data services offset the decline of voice & messaging?
Uncomfortable answer: probably not, based on recent evidence
Disruption and innovation are both inevitable & essential, irrespective of WebRTC
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Voice & messaging go in-context
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Peak telephony & SMS is here
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mobile core services revenue, indicative W Europe BASELINE, ie excluding WebRTC Total c40% fall
from peak
Mobile telephony
SMS & today’s mobile data services
Telephony c80% fall from peak
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Personalisation is done by people
Mobile calls SMS MMS Email
Mobile calls SMS (RCS?)
99% of personal comms for all
use cases
Lowest common denominator just
when needed
User-selected portfolio:
perfect fit for specific use
cases
+
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Fragmentation is valuable
Convergence & standards
Fragmentation & innovation
… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
It will fragment “because it can”. Consumer need for
ubiquity is over-rated
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Device diversity = OTT inevitable
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6
# connected devices owned
Probability of all of a user’s Internet / messaging devices being on a single telco’s network
Free 3rd party WiFi
Shared data plans only a partial response
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Telcos already exploiting Internet
Owned & operated by mobile operators Usable by anyone, not just subscribers Via apps & public Internet Telco-OTT Services
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OTT-style services offer the only hope for continued telco services growth & increased relevance
Harsh truth: Telco-OTT mandatory
• Telephony & SMS prices have peaked
• Telephony & SMS demand has peaked
• APIs, HD, Video, Bundles only delay the inevitable
• Need for new voice-based services beyond “calls”
• Too fast-evolving for new “federated” services
• Too uncertain / innovation-driven for standards
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Comms
Content
Cloud
Connec-tivity
Over 100 identified Telco-OTT products in the
market.
Telco-OTT: more than just VoIP/RTC
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Biz models may not be obvious
…. Carriers need to move away from the obsession with
“subscriptions” with WebRTC/OTT
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WebRTC: game-changer & threat
The future?
Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB ???? In the crossfire
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WebRTC is a magnifier & catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
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My enemy’s enemy….
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd. 2012
“WebRTC will hurt OTTs more than Telcos!”
… & create new, better, more disruptive OTT players. Great.
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Telco involvement with WebRTC
• AT&T most visible
– Participant in standards, eg proposing push for notifications
– Developer-centric approach
• Telefonica likely a major player
– TokBox acquisition
– Firefox OS advocacy
– TUMe & other TefDig products
• DT & FT at recent events
– FT on W3C WG
– VF & Telecom Italia also on WG
• Anecdotes about China Mobile but no confirmation
– On W3C WebRTC WG list along with China Unicom, Huawei, Baidu, TenCent & China Academy of Sciences
• Also on W3C working group
– SKT (Korea)
– Smart (Philippines)
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
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Multiple constituencies involved
Telco WebRTC interest
VoLTE & Telco-OTT teams
curious/worried by WebRTC
Enterprise VoIP / UC /
conferencing moving to WebRTC
Ground-up interest in
WebRTC (in labs etc)
Apps, developer & HTML5
initiatives adding WebRTC
+ Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it? Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
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Overlapping universes
Telco services
Pure OTT apps
WebRTC
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd. 2012
“Gateway into IMS” Softphones etc
Browser-based Telco-OTT Network & platform APIs
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“Easy options” for Telcos+WebRTC
• Charging platform
• Legal requirements
• Notifications
• Numbers / directories
• WiFi access (in theory…)
• Network QoS (in theory…)
• But does any of this really move the needle?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd. 2012
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Some myths to avoid for WebRTC
Quality & QoS
• Impending quali-pocalypse
• Users appear to care less than expected – Some high-Q use cases (eg
sales call)
– Internet vs. non-Internet
• Quality driven by much more than network – Eg Coverage (esp for LTE)
WiFi
• “Seamless connection”
• HetNets
• Mobile carriers are very important or in control
• The user & operator are the only stakeholders
A quick diversion to some pet topics of mine:
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Main WebRTC strategies for SPs
Extend on-net services
Turbocharge Telco-OTT
apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriber
Enhance developer platform
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd. 2012
Perpetuate legacy models “Put lipstick on a pig” – eg RCS
Improves relevance… but
revenue?
Sell genuine “new stuff” to existing
audience
Lower costs/complexity &
improve reach & “virality”
Also: invest / incubate
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Conclusions: WebRTC & SPs
• No definitive answers yet
• Makes the threats worse & the opportunities better – Battle new OTTs or old ones: result is the same
• Extending “reach” for poor services doesn’t help
• SPs need to exploit WebRTC to create or resell
• Avoid the “federation trap”
• Manage diverse internal stakeholders & teams – WebRTC will be pervasive across telco “domains”
• Be nimble
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November 27-29, 2012
South San Francisco Conference Center
Thank You
Dean Bubley
Disruptive Analysis
@disruptivedean
Skype: disruptiveanalysis