South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San...

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US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 with Project Conditions U.S. Army Corps of Engineers San Francisco District Ms. Lisa Andes Mr. Craig Conner Dr. Frank Wu Dr. Jen-Men Lo Dr. Michael MacWilliams Dr. Chia-Chi Lu Dr. Robert Dean

Transcript of South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San...

Page 1: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

US Army Corps of Engineers

BUILDING STRONG®

South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies

for EIA 11 with Project Conditions U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

San Francisco District

Ms. Lisa Andes

Mr. Craig Conner

Dr. Frank Wu

Dr. Jen-Men Lo

Dr. Michael MacWilliams

Dr. Chia-Chi Lu

Dr. Robert Dean

Page 2: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Project Site

2

Focus Area

Page 3: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Project History

2004 - 2005 Funds received/FSCA signed/Project Start

October 2005 – May 2010 Modeling of without project

conditions to support Feasibility Scoping Meeting (FSM)

September - December 2010 – FSM held, HQ comments

resolved, and approved to continue project

November 2010 - February 2011 – Project re-scoped

(reduced size)

October 2011 – Switched hydrodynamics model

June 2012 – Most technical work completed and Decision

Making Conference held

March 2013 – 1st Draft of Feasibility Report & EIS/EIR

April 2013 – Preparing for the Alternative Formulation

Briefing with HQ USACE

Page 4: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Project Sponsors

Page 5: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Technical Team Dr. Frank Wu – Co – Technical Manager

► USACE, San Francisco District

Dr. Jen-Men Lo – Co – Technical Manager

► Santa Clara Valley Water District

Dr. Michael MacWilliams – Hydrodynamic Modeling

► Delta Modeling Associates, Inc.

Dr. Chai-Chi Lu – Statistical Analysis/Monte Carlo Simulation

► Noble Consultants, Inc.

Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

► USACE, San Francisco District

Dr. Robert Dean – Technical Review

► University of Florida

Mr. Craig Conner – Flood Risk Manager

► USACE, San Francisco District

Page 6: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Project Purpose

1. Flood Risk Management –

Estimate a combined fluvial

and coastal design water

surface elevation for levee

construction

2. Ecosystem Restoration –

include in wetland restoration

alternatives in design water

surface elevation

100

101

102

103

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

Wa

ter

Su

rfa

ce

Ele

va

tio

n (

fee

t, N

AV

D8

8)

Return Period (years)

YR0 NED - Water Surface Elevation at Point 3

Expected Value

90% Confidence Limit (5% & 95% Confidence Level)

Flood Stage Frequency Curve

South San Francisco Bay

(Risk and Uncertainty Based Approach)

Page 7: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Project Challenges

1. Lack of site specific

water surface

elevation data at the

project site

2. Over 150 years of

measured water

surface elevation at

the San Francisco

Tide Station

NOAA Tide Stations in the Central and

South Bay

Page 8: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Coastal Engineering Components

• Physics (tide, surge wind, wave run-up & over topping, levee stability & fluvial flow)

• Numerical Modeling (Yr-0 and Yr-50, With-Project Conditions)

• Statistical Analysis: 1. Extreme Probability Method

(EPM)

2. Joint Probability Method (JPM)

3. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)

• Sea Level Rise (NRC Curve III)

Page 9: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

12/02 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Date (mm/dd/1983)

WS

E, N

AV

D 8

8 (

fee

t)

Measured Tide

Predicted Tide

Residual Tide

Tide and Surge Analysis at the San

Francisco Tide Station

Residual Tide and Astronomical Tide are in Phase

Residual Tide ~= 2.4’

Page 10: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Astronomical Tidal

Amplification

Astronomical

Tide is

amplified from

San Francisco

to South Bay 05/16 05/17 05/18 05/19 05/21-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Date mm/dd/2011

WS

E, N

AV

D8

8 (

fee

t)

WSE Measured at Coyote (9414575)

WSE Measured at San Francisco (9414290)

Page 11: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Residual Tide in the

South Bay

Approximately no change in

residual tide as it propagates to the

south bay

Resid

ual T

ide (

m)

Page 12: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

South Bay Model Grid Model Domain

Note: Bathymetry used in grid development

was CEPD* compliant

*CEPD – Comprehensive Evaluation of Project Datums, EM 1110-2-6056

Page 13: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Look-Up

Table

Tide at San Francisco Evaluation Location

Event Astronomical

(feet, MLLW)

Residual

(feet) 7 16

1 5.15 0.5 6.09 5.74

2 5.15 2.5 7.84 7.76

3 5.85 0.5 6.54 6.36

4 5.85 2.5 8.57 8.50

5 6.55 0.5 7.04 6.88

6 6.55 2.5 9.08 9.02

7 7.25 0.5 7.72 7.61

8 7.25 2.5 9.98 9.90

Outer Levee

Proposed Inner Levee 1

Proposed Inner Levee 2

Model Simulations Include:

with and without wind and

with and without levee

failure scenarios

Page 14: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Conditional Sampling Criteria

Scenario Measured Tide

>= MLLW (ft)

Residual Tide

>= (ft)

Number of

Events

Sampled

Rate of

Occurrence

(Event #/yr)

1 6.9 0.0 522 4.97

2 6.9 0.5 276 2.63

3 6.9 1.0 93 0.89

4 Annual Maximum -- 105 1.0

12/01 12/06 12/11 12/16 12/21 12/26 12/31-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Date (mm/dd/2002)

Tid

e (

ft)

Measured Tide

Predicted Tide

Residual Tide

6.9 Feet Above MLLW

What WSE is

justified to be

considered as a

storm event in

extreme coastal

and fluvial flood

statistics?

Page 15: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Extreme Probability Method

100

101

102

103

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

Return Period (yrs)

Flo

od

Sta

ge

(ft, M

LL

W)

Gumbel Fit: Measured Tide >= 6.9 & Residual Tide >= 0.0

Gumbel Fit: Measured Tide >= 6.9 & Residual Tide >= 0.5

Gumbel Fit: Measured Tide >= 6.9 & Residual Tide >= 1.0

Gumbel Fit: Annual Maximum Measured Tide (Reference Senario)

Page 16: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Wind Speed (MPH)

Pro

ba

bility

Wind : 292.5o

Wind : 315.0o

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 3500

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

Wind Direction (0, True North)

Pro

ba

bility

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 30

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

Pro

ba

bility

Residual Tide (feet)

4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.50

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

Pro

ba

bility

Astronomical Tide, MLLW (feet)

Probability Distribution Functions

(PDFs)

Residual Tide

Predicted Tide

Wind Speed

Wind Direction

Page 17: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Monte Carlo Simulation Process

Astronomical Tide Residual Tide / Surge

Wind Speed / Direction Riverine Inflows

Long Wave Model Short Wave Model

Hydrodynamic Forcing on Levee

Outboard Levee Failure

Inboard Levee Failure

Basin Flooding Analysis / End Result

LWM No Breach LWM w/ Breach

Forcing Functions

Fluvial Flow Rate

Hydraulic Modeling (HEC-RAS)

Breakout Flow

No YES No Fail Fail

No Fail Fail

Page 18: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Risk & Uncertainty

Analysis

18

100

101

102

103

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

Wa

ter

Su

rfa

ce

Ele

va

tio

n (

fee

t, N

AV

D8

8)

Return Period (years)

Water Surface Elevation at Point 7

Joint Probability Distribution

Gumbel Maximum Distribution

Expected Value

5% & 95% Confidence Levels

Page 19: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Risk & Uncertainty

Analysis

Effect of Outer

Levee Breach:

1. Breach

Condition

2. No Breach

Condition

100

101

102

103

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Wa

ter

Su

rfa

ce

Ele

va

tio

n (

fee

t, N

AV

D8

8)

Return Period (years)

Water Surface Elevation at Point 16

Expected Value

90% Confidence Limit (5% & 95% Confidence Level)

Page 20: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Sea Level Rise Comparison of Water Surface Elevation between

Year 0 and Year 50 NRC Curve III

100

101

102

103

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

Wa

ter

Su

rfa

ce

Ele

va

tio

n (

fee

t, N

AV

D8

8)

Return Period (years)

Water Surface Elevation at Point 16

Expected Value

90% Confidence Limit (5% & 95% Confidence Level)

100

101

102

103

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Wa

ter

Su

rfa

ce

Ele

va

tio

n (

fee

t, N

AV

D8

8)

Return Period (years)

Water Surface Elevation at Point 16

Expected Value

90% Confidence Limit (5% & 95% Confidence Level)

Year 0 (2017) Year 50 (2067)

WSE between 4.5 and 9.5, feet NAVD88 WSE between 11.3 and 13.0, feet

NAVD88

Includes: Sea Level Rise (2.13 feet) and

estimated bathymetric change

Page 21: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Summary and Conclusions

1. Correct coastal physics associated with

tide (predicted and residual) were used

2. The wind set up contribution is negligible

3. MCS provides reasonable estimates of

coastal flood stage frequency curve with

uncertainty limits

4. MCS, EPM and JPM seem to compare

well and demonstrate consistency

Page 22: South San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies for EIA 11 … Shoreline Study_Andes.pdfSouth San Francisco Bay Shoreline Studies ... Mr. Brian Hubel / Dr. Nick Malasavage – Levee Failure

Next Steps

Technical work (including modeling) is currently

in the Corps review process

~ July 2013 - will hold the Alternative

Formulation Briefing (AFB) with HQ USACE

~ August – September 2013 - AFB material will

be available to the public

~ September 2013 – will hold a public meeting on

the Administrative Draft Feasibility

Report/EIR/EIS

~ June 2014 Report of the Chief of Engineers

released

~ 2017 – Start of Project Construction*

* Pending authorization & appropriations