South Corridor Development Summary
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Transcript of South Corridor Development Summary
URBANLANDINSTITUTE
112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
SOUTHCORRIDORDEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY
[INSERTIMG]
NCG OVERVIEW
• Noell Consulting Group• Real estate consultant based in Atlanta• Conduct market analyses and consumer
research for both public sector and private sector clients• Conduct numerous studies along transit corridors
and locations• Studied South Corridor since 2002• Three other planned corridors• Conducted numerous TOD analyses in
Washington, DC, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Atlanta, Raleigh & Charlotte
OVERVIEW OF THE SOUTH LINE
• Corridor opened in November 2007
• First corridor in five corridor system
• Includes 11 stations outside of Center City
• Follows existing rail line to the south
SOUTH LINE CONTEXT
• Using existing rail line• Bringing people to the
corridor, not the corridor to people
• Corridor does not traverse any major employment cores outside of Center City
• Higher incomes largely to the east
• Crosses/accesses freeway only at the ends of corridor
CORE
CORE
CORE
CORE
SOUTH LINE CONTEXT
SS
S
S
S
S
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S
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S
CONTEXT—TIMING WAS TOUGH
-1,000,000
-500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mecklenburg Office Absorption
-40,000-30,000-20,000-10,000
010,00020,00030,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mecklenburg Employment Growth
SOUTH LINE SUCCESS TO DATE
• In spite of challenges, TOD has been quite strong
• Completed Projects• $341M in tax value
added• 2,168 MF units
• 9.2% capture• 308,400 SF office
• 1.9% capture• 252,000 SF retail
• 2.5% capture
TALE OF THREE SEGMENTS
• South End• Carson• Bland
• Mid-Corridor Stations• Scaleybark• Woodlawn
• Southern Stations• Arrowood• Sharon West
• East-West• New Bern
• Tyvola• Archdale
• I-485
SOUTH ENDSEGMENT
• Completed Projects• $324M in tax value
added• 95% of corridor total
• 1,976 MF units• 91% of corridor total
• 308,400 SF office• 100% of corridor total
• 190,300 SF retail• 76% of corridor total
SOUTH END SUCCESS
• Leasing agents & Realtors• transit access important for 30% -
40% of residents• South End rental apartments
• 12.5% premium over inner ring, non-rail projects
• Achieving rents that allow more urban product ($1.52/SF)
• Office & retail• Growing design district, restaurants/
nightlife, urban Lowe’s• Commercial generally not achieving
premiums over other intown cores
MID-CORRIDOR
• Completed Projects• $1.76M in tax value
added• 1% of corridor total
• 0 MF units• 0% of corridor total
• 0 SF office• 0% of corridor total
• 7,150 SF retail• 3% of corridor total
SOUTHERNSTATIONS
• Completed Projects• $15.6M in tax value
added• 5% of corridor total
• 192 MF units• 9% of corridor total
• 0 SF office• 0% of corridor total
• 54,600 SF retail• 22% of corridor total
TRANSIT IMPORTANT FACTOR, BUT NOT MOST CRITICAL
• “Transit doesn’t make a bad location good, it makes a good location better”
• Portland TriMet interview
• Transit is a key part of creating convenience and lifestyle, but must have other lifestyle or selling propositions
• Employment proximity• Affluence of neighborhoods
• Create price alternative hsg needs• Walkability• Unique character
CASE STUDY COMPARISON
S
S
Bland Street Station Tyvola Station
CASE STUDY COMPARISON
Bland Tyvola
Predominant Land Use Mix of Loft Commercial, Residential, some Ind.
Mix of Strip Retail, Bus. Park
Shortest Walk to Exist Res, 2005 .19 miles .31 miles
Walk Score 82 68
Avg Area Home Sales Price $291,000 $166,000
Distance to Major Office Core .8 Miles 2.8 Miles
Station Format Surface Elevated
Rental Apt Lease Rates $1.50 $1.00 - $1.10
Parking Supported Decked Surface
Supportable Densities 60 – 100+/Acre 25 – 30/Acre
Retail Rents $22 - $26/SF $12 - $16/SF
WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
• Next wave of apartment construction starting up
• 1,535 new units in next two to three years
• 3,700 new residential units in roughly a decade
• Projects in South End, extending south to New Bern Station
• Developers very tuned into value of transit—emphasize Blue Line access as a key selling feature
• Commercial still a tougher challenge, but housing creates more potential
WHERE ARE WE HEADING?
• Central and Southern sections likely to remain relatively quiet
• City/CATS will need to identify strategies & investment to create value
• Parks & Plazas• Greenways• Institutional units & anchors• Use of financial tools
• Lack of land control around stations an issue
IN CLOSING
• Development has been strong given timing, market struggles, and attributes of corridor
• Residential has been much stronger than commercial
• Transit undoubtedly “elevating” locations where lifestyle proposition/ convenience already exist
• 3,700 units in 10 years• Stations lacking that proposition a much
tougher development scenario• Other investments/steps may be needed to
facilitate development• Lack of CATS property makes this more
challenging
URBANLANDINSTITUTE
112 KROG STREET NE SUITE 14 | ATLANTA, GA 30307 CONTACT | 404.681.0006
SOUTHCORRIDORDEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY
[INSERTIMG]
OTHER FACTORS WEIGH HEAVILY
Factor South End Center Stations
Southern Stations
Housing Value
$325,000 $128,000 $71,000
Walkability Score
76 60 44
Distance to Center City
1.3 4.5 6.75
Character Med. To High Low Low
Station Visibility
High—one parcel deep from S. Blvd
Moreremoved—
generally low
Moderate—somewhatremoved
Feasibility of Development
Redev.Feasible
Redev—not feasible
Mixed—somegreenfield