South Bend, INMeteorology 415 – Fall 2012

Second Contest

Fourth Day

South BendPopulation (2010)

 •City 101,168

 • Density 2,787/sq mi (1,075.9/km2)

 • Metro 316,663

South bend - OBS

• KSBN 091754Z 22017G20KT 10SM CLR 16/03 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 19026/1733 SLP144 T01560028 10167 20056 58022=

• KSBN 091854Z 19016G23KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP131 T01670033=

• KSBN 091954Z 20016G25KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 20027/1921 SLP127 T01720028=

• KSBN 092054Z 20016G22KT 10SM CLR 17/03 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 21026/1958 SLP124 T01720033 56019=

• KSBN 092154Z 21013KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP121 T01610039=

• KSBN 092254Z 19010KT 10SM CLR 16/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP118 T01560039=

• KSBN 092354Z 20009KT 10SM CLR 14/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP119 T01440039 10178 20144 56006=

• KSBN 100054Z 19008KT 10SM CLR 13/04 A2988 RMK AO2 SLP120 T01330044=

• KSBN 100154Z 20011KT 10SM BKN100 13/04 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP112 T01330044=

• KSBN 100254Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T01330044 58007=

• KSBN 100347Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=

South bend - OBS• KSBN 100254Z 20011KT 10SM BKN065 OVC095 13/04 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP109 T01330044 58007=

• KSBN 100347Z 32017G21KT 7SM -RA FEW025 BKN042 OVC050 10/08 A2988 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 P0000=

• KSBN 100354Z 32014G22KT 10SM -RA FEW025 BKN035 OVC045 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 WSHFT 0327 RAB36 SLP122 P0000 T00940072=

• KSBN 100408Z 33010KT 5SM RA BR BKN010 BKN024 OVC040 09/07 A2989 RMK AO2 CIG 008V018 P0001=

• KSBN 100429Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0009=

• KSBN 100429Z 32012G19KT 4SM +RA BR BKN008 BKN026 OVC032 08/06A2990=

• KSBN 100436Z 33010KT 4SM +RA BR SCT008 BKN033 OVC046 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0012=

• KSBN 100454Z 32009KT 7SM RA FEW008 SCT024 OVC040 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP126 P0016 T00780061 401780050=

• KSBN 100506Z 33009KT 8SM -RA FEW008 BKN029 OVC049 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002=

• KSBN 100513Z 32008KT 8SM -RA FEW029 OVC047 08/06 A2990 RMK AO2 P0002=

• KSBN 100554Z 31009KT 6SM RA BR FEW020 BKN037 OVC055 07/06 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP129 P0009 60025 T00720056 10144 20072 51018=

• KSBN 100654Z 29008KT 10SM -RA OVC050 07/05 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0003 T00670050=

• KSBN 100754Z 28005KT 10SM -RA BKN035 OVC055 06/04 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0005 T00610039=

• KSBN 100828Z 23005KT 10SM BKN021 OVC030 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 P0000=

• KSBN 100854Z 23007KT 10SM BKN019 BKN027 OVC039 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2 RAE0757 SLP130 P0000 60008 T00610044 53001=

South bend - OBS• KSBN 100909Z 24009KT 10SM FEW012 SCT027 OVC050 06/04 A2991 RMK AO2=

• KSBN 100954Z 24009KT 10SM BKN055 06/04 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP132 T00560039=

• KSBN 101054Z 24008KT 8SM FEW029 SCT037 OVC045 06/04 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP138 T00560044=

• KSBN 101154Z 23009KT 7SM BKN050 05/04 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP145 60008 70033 T00500039 10072 20050 53015=

• KSBN 101254Z 25009KT 7SM FEW032 SCT041 BKN048 05/03 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP156 T00500033=

• KSBN 101354Z 25013G19KT 10SM BKN049 08/04 A3001 RMK AO2 SLP164 T00780044=

• KSBN 101443Z 27012KT 10SM BKN025 OVC045 07/03 A3003 RMK AO2=

• KSBN 101454Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP173 T00720028 51028=

• KSBN 101458Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004=

• KSBN 101458Z 27013KT 10SM BKN023 BKN029 OVC046 07/03 A3004 RMK AO2=

• KSBN 101454Z 27011KT 10SM SCT023 BKN040 OVC048 07/03 A3004=

South bend surface map

South bend - satellite

South bend -radar

South bend - radar

South bend - verifications

South bend - survey scores

South bend – career scores

South bend – up close and personal

South bend – lessons learned

• Timing the front helped to determine the temperature and wind direction change.

• Extra rainfall associated with more convergence and perhaps some added urban condensation nuclei

• The MOS errors were useful mainly for dew point adjustments. The heavier showers dropped the 0-6z min lower than expected due to evap cooling.

• Best forecasts are produced when you are closer to the location (like Madison ).

City two: paso robles, CA

Paso robles - Obs• KPRB 100253Z AUTO 19008KT 10SM CLR 16/10 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01610100 53013 TSNO=

• KPRB 100353Z AUTO 21006G18KT 10SM CLR 15/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01500106 TSNO=

• KPRB 100453Z AUTO 21007KT 10SM BKN080 15/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP149 T01500106 TSNO=

• KPRB 100553Z AUTO 21006KT 10SM FEW075 BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP148 T01440111 10233 20144 51009 TSNO=

• KPRB 100653Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN085 14/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01440106 TSNO=

• KPRB 100753Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 13/11 A2998 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01280106 402560078 TSNO=

• KPRB 100853Z AUTO 05003KT 10SM CLR 12/10 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP143 T01170100 58004 TSNO=

• KPRB 100953Z AUTO 12004KT 10SM CLR 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T01000083 TSNO=

• KPRB 101053Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP137 T00940078 TSNO=

• KPRB 101153Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 09/07 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T00890072 10144 20089 55005 TSNO=

• KPRB 101218Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN019 09/08 A2995 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 101244Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 101253Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW019 OVC065 09/08 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP141 T00940078 TSNO=

• KPRB 101353Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM FEW021 OVC070 10/08 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01000083 TSNO=

• KPRB 101406Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN021 BKN049 OVC070 10/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 101413Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT021 SCT049 OVC070 11/08 A2996 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 101453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01110089 50004 TSNO=

Paso robles - Obs

• KPRB 101453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM OVC070 11/09 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01110089 50004 TSNO=

• KPRB 101553Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM CLR 12/09 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP145 T01220094 TSNO=

• KPRB 101653Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN031 OVC065 16/11 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP144 T01560106 TSNO=

• KPRB 101753Z AUTO 15006KT 10SM CLR 18/11 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP140 T01830106 10183 20083 58003 TSNO=

• KPRB 101853Z AUTO 20012G19KT 10SM SCT029 BKN060 OVC070 16/12 A2997 RMK AO2 RAB30E48 SLP144 P0002 T01560117 TSNO=

• KPRB 101953Z AUTO 21009KT 10SM -RA FEW042 BKN070 17/12 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP142 P0000 T01720117 TSNO=

• KPRB 102053Z AUTO 22009KT 10SM SCT065 BKN080 18/11 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE09 SLP133 P0000 60002 T01830106 58008 TSNO=

• KPRB 102153Z AUTO 19006KT 10SM SCT090 19/10 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T01890100 TSNO=

• KPRB 102253Z AUTO VRB05KT 10SM FEW070 19/09 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T01940094 TSNO=

• KPRB 102353Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 60002 T01940083 10200 20156 56012 TSNO=

Paso robles - Obs

• KPRB 102353Z AUTO 22005KT 10SM FEW060 BKN090 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 60002 T01940083 10200 20156 56012 TSNO=

• KPRB 110053Z AUTO 23008KT 10SM SCT065 19/08 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP121 T01890078 TSNO=

• KPRB 110153Z AUTO 20005KT 10SM CLR 17/08 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T01670078 TSNO=

• KPRB 110253Z AUTO 20009KT 10SM SCT065 OVC090 15/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP132 T01500106 53011 TSNO=

• KPRB 110353Z AUTO 22003KT 10SM BKN095 14/11 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP134 T01440106 TSNO=

• KPRB 110453Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM BKN100 14/10 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T01390100 TSNO=

• KPRB 110553Z AUTO 30003KT 10SM BKN080 13/09 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 T01280094 10200 20122 50003 TSNO=

• KPRB 110653Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T01280106 TSNO=

• KPRB 110734Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 110748Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 402000083 TSNO=

• KPRB 110653Z AUTO 29006KT 10SM BKN065 13/11 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP135 T01280106 TSNO=

• KPRB 110734Z AUTO 27005KT 10SM SCT007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 TSNO=

• KPRB 110748Z AUTO 28004KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2993 RMK AO2 402000083 TSNO=

• KPRB 110753Z AUTO 27003KT 10SM BKN007 BKN080 12/10 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T01170100 402000083 TSNO=

• KPRB 110853Z AUTO 27004KT 10SM OVC007 12/11 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP129 T01220106 56005 TSNO=

Paso robles - surface

Paso robles – upper air

Paso robles - satellite

Paso robles - radar

Paso robles - verification

Career scores

Up close and personal

• Seems it never rains in southern CaliforniaSeems I've often heard that kind of talk beforeIt never rains in California, but girl, don't they warn ya?It pours, man, it pours

Lessons learned

• The formation of upper level lows along the west coast leads to sporadic showers that are mainly related to local effects.

• Despite the increased daytime instability, the marine layer can and does return at night, particularly on the north side of the low.

• Winds are driven by terrain when there is no distinct surface feature.

• An upper level low drops temperatures below seasonal levels and decreases the diurnal variation.