South Asia Heat Trends and the State of Science in Forecasting/Applications

SC Bhan, Naresh Kumar, Anup Kumar Srivastava and DilipMavalankar

scbhan@yahoo.com, sc.bhan@imd.gov.in

First Global Forum on Heat and Health

Hong Kong17-20 December, 2018

Panel Discussion on Regional Heat issues

Summer Temperatures in the RegionStarts building up from Sri Lanka and the south & central parts of India in March AND

Peaks towards end of May/early June

March 16

June 16

April 16 May16

July 16 July 16 Minimum• Some parts, particularly northwest India and south Pakistan, could remain quite

warm into entire June/ early July in case of late onset OR weak monsoon• Warm Nights and High Humidity are added issue in July in NWI & S Pak

Observed Trends• Annual Tmean Trends

(C/100 yrs) Most Areas Warming

• A few cooling pockets For how long ?

INDIA Summer Tmean Trend 0.63C/100 yrsAll of last 20 yrs warmer

14 El Nino- 9 warmer12 La Nina- 3 warmer

HW days India hot weather season (April-June).

Mean Annual Temp Nepal Annual T max/min DhakaMore Warming in Southern Parts

Mean Monthly Tmax Anomalies. Most warmer than avg. Jan-Feb more marked.

Warmer Post Monsoon & Winters = Prolonged & Early Heat Load AND Stress on Agriculture and on Water resources which

have implications for Heat Management issues Trends in heat waveaffected area in Pakistan

HEAT WAVE OVER INDIA• In spells of 5 to 6 days (recorded up to 15 days in some cases).

Severe HW 2-3 days (upto 7 days).• Originate in April over Central India due to high insolation and

stable atmosphere in absence of thunderstorm activity.• Maximum frequency in May. HWs developing over NW

India/Pak and are advected east & south by prevailing NW’lywinds. Sustained N’wlies result in HW upto Bangladesh.

Typical Low Level flow Associated with HW up to east coast

20-May-15

22-May-15

24-May-15

26-May-15

28-May-15

30-May-15

A prolonged Spell from 20-30 May, 2015

Prolonged Heat Stress during the day

Sudden Increase in Temperature due to onset of w’lies over east coast

Heat Wave 2015Sub-Div

44° C & above 46 ° C & above

Days Period Days PeriodHRY 9 21-29 2 23,25W UP 9 21-29 2 25-26E UP 9 21-29 8 21-27 & 29

W. Raj 8 21-27 & 30 4 23-25 & 27

E. Raj 11 20-30 4 22, 25-27West MP 11 20-30 2 20 & 29

East MP 10 21-30 1 29

Odish 10 20-29 5 22-27Jhkd 9 21-29 6 22-27Chht 11 20-30 5 25-29Tel 11 20-30 11 20-30

C AP 9 20-27 & 30 7 21-27Coincidences with droughts are

conflicting

चार्ट1

421474214742147421474214742147

421484214842148421484214842148

421494214942149421494214942149

421504215042150421504215042150

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Ramagundam

37

41.8

44.4

44

38.6

46.1

36.6

40.6

43.8

43.6

37.6

44.8

36.6

40.6

43.6

42

39.6

44.8

37

41.6

41.8

43.4

38

44.5

Sheet1

Temp

DelhiAjmerGwaliorjabalpur

23-May24-May25-May26-May232425262324252623242526

3 UTC353435.235.43323233.232.6373737.237.63343534.434.4

6 UTC4141.441.24163936.237.236.6414141.242.2640404440

9 UTC4443.244.644.2942.440.440.8414443.44444.494341.842.642

12 UTC434143.44312424140.440.44344.243.443124239.240.230

15 UTC36.83639.835.61538.637.637.837.234.4403536.615363637.432

Max44.543.545.545max43.241.441.641.2max44.944.944.845.9max43.64243.143

RH23242526232425262324252623242526

332423537343454142339444747324384141

624242626624362035636393835614362727

91020201891717202293033302998241928

1217281818121213171812302929311210282756

1534371934152022212215473244401522302948

Temp

OngoleRamagundamNagpur

232425262324252623242526

335.735.235.83733736.636.63733836.436.636.8

640.840.839.842641.840.640.641.6643424344.2

943.644.243.243.6944.443.843.641.894544.645.645

1242.842.843.642124443.64243.4124339.24336.4

1536.23838.8361538.637.639.63815383336.434.8

Max44.344.443.744.5Max46.144.844.844.5Max45.144.945.846.2

RH

OngoleNagpur

232425262324252623242526

348484750338354541327464750

634333534630353839618353433

927202531924272932924282315

122722243112202338281216362833

153536334315253734401522413536

Sheet1

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Gwalior

Sheet2

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Ajmer

Sheet3

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Delhi (Safdarjung)

पत्रक1

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Jabalpur

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Nagpur

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Ramagundam

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Temperature (°C)

Temperature - Ongole

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative umidity (%)

RH - Delhi (Safdarjung)

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Gwalior

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Ajmer

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Jabalpur

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Nagpur

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Ramagundam

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Relative Humidity (%)

RH - Ongole

Temp

DelhiAjmerGwaliorjabalpur

42147421484214942150232425262324252623242526

33532344235.23535.4373323233.232.6373737.237.63343534.434.4

6412441.42441.226412663936.237.236.6414141.242.2640404440

944.81043.22044.62044.218942.440.440.8414443.44444.494341.842.642

124317412843.418431812424140.440.44344.243.443124239.240.230

1536.834363739.81935.6341538.637.637.837.234.4403536.615363637.432

Max44.543.545.545max43.241.441.641.2max44.944.944.845.9max43.64243.143

RH23242526232425262324252623242526

332423537343454142339444747324384141

624242626624362035636393835614362727

91020201891717202293033302998241928

1217281818121213171812302929311210282756

1534371934152022212215473244401522302948

Temp

OngoleRamagundamNagpur

232425262324252623242526

335.735.235.83733736.636.63733836.436.636.8

640.840.839.842641.840.640.641.6643424344.2

943.644.243.243.6944.443.843.641.894544.645.645

1242.842.843.642124443.64243.4124339.24336.4

1536.23838.8361538.637.639.63815383336.434.8

Max44.344.443.744.5Max46.144.844.844.5Max45.144.945.846.2

RH

OngoleNagpur

232425262324252623242526

348484750338354541327464750

634333534630353839618353433

927202531924272932924282315

122722243112202338281216362833

153536334315253734401522413536

Delhi

23-May242526

temprhtemprhtemprhtemprh

3 UTC3532344235.23535.437

6 UTC412441.42441.2264126

9 UTC441043.22044.62044.218

12 UTC4317412843.4184318

15 UTC36.834363739.81935.634

Max44.543.545.545

3 UTC

6 UTC

9 UTC

12 UTC

15 UTC

Max

Sept IC Oct IC

Seasonal Outlooks & Forecast Skills

July IC August IC

RCC, Pune: Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia every month for next 4 months(Current and FC ENSO, precipitation & temp anomalies FC Afg, B. Desh, Bhutan, India, Myn,Nepal, Pak &S. Lanka. The spatial pattern of Anomalies are reasonably well captured.

FAR MR CSI PODD1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3 D1 D2 D3

2017 .07 .06 .02 .33 .51 .77 .40 .32 .19 .67 .49 .23

2018 .03 .04 .02 .09 .28 .52 .54 .40 .32 .91 .72 .48

Mean Temp Anomaly Observations and FC for December, 2016 The outlooks in India are found to be useful in Heat Wave Mgt. India

D-5 warning accuracy in 2018 ishigher than D-3 accuracy of 2017 .The improvement in D-3 of 2018warning is more than 100% compareto D-3 of 2017.POD

MRCSI

REFERENCES/ACKNOWLEDGEMENTNajeebullah Khan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Tarmizi Ismail, Kamal Ahmed and Nadeem Nawaz

(2018). Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2

IMD (2018). Annual Climate Summary- 2017. http://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Products.htmlPai D.S, Srivastava, A.K. and Nair, S.A. (2017). In M.R. Nair and S. Nayak (eds.), “Observed

Climate Variability and Change over the Indian Region”. Springer Geology, DOI 10.1007/978-981-10-2531-0_4

Mossammat Ayesha Khatun, Md. Bazlur Rashid and Hans Olav Hygen. (2016). Climate of Bangladesh. Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Met Report No. 08/2016

Sagar Dahal. 2007. Climatic Determinants in Malaria and Kala-azar in Nepal. ProceedingReport of National Workshop on “Climate Change and Human Health: Potential Impact, Vulnerability and Adaptation in Nepal” held at Kathmandu, Nepal. December 19- 21, 2007

THANKS

https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-018-1605-2http://rcc.imdpune.gov.in/Products.html

South Asia Heat Trends and the State of Science in Forecasting/Applications��SC Bhan, Naresh Kumar, Anup Kumar Srivastava and Dilip Mavalankar��scbhan@yahoo.com, sc.bhan@imd.gov.in�Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Heat Wave over IndiaSlide Number 5Seasonal Outlooks & Forecast SkillsReferences/Acknowledgement