South Africa Election and Development Policy Karol Boudreaux Senior Research Fellow [email protected]...
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Transcript of South Africa Election and Development Policy Karol Boudreaux Senior Research Fellow [email protected]...
South Africa Election and Development
Policy
Karol BoudreauxSenior Research Fellow
“Rwanda is our nightmare, South Africa is our dream”-
Wole Soyinka
Background
Brief History Legacies of discrimination
Native Lands Act of 1913 Native Consolidation Act of 1945 Bantu Affairs Act of 1971 1990-1992 negotiations to end apartheid
1994 – Present Peaceful elections in 1994, 1999, 2004 Economic Growth between 3-5 percent per annum Unique International Opportunities
Background Cont.
Importance of the Election Change in ANC political hegemony The Need for Reform
Increase opportunities for all South Africans Frustration with misaligned foreign policy
Poverty in South Africa
At a R322 ($56) a month poverty line: 56% of Africans are poor 95% of poor are Africans Poverty rates for colored = 34% <10% for whites & Indians
Women-headed households are poorer Rural households are poorer
Source: Bhorat, H. & van der Westhuizen, C. 2008, “Economic growth, poverty and inequality in South Africa: the First Decade of Democracy,” paper commissioned for the Fifteen Year Review.
Key Contenders
African National Congress (ANC) Jacob Zuma
Congress of the People (COPE) Mvume Dandala
Democratic Alliance (DA) Hellen Ziller
Unemployment Comparison
Source: Constructed by authors from Labor Force Survey data obtainable from www.statssa.gov.za and fromUS Bureau of Labor Statistics data obtainable from www.bls.labor.gov/data/
Unemployment Rate Comparison
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
% U
nem
plo
yed
South Africa
United States
What explains high unemployment? Legacies of apartheid Lots of supply Limited demand for low-skilled workers High search costs High formal sector wage rates Some labor regulation rigidity (firing)
Education
Shared responsibility Large work force 96% public, 4%
independent Generally poor
outcomes for learners Infrastructure backlogs
significant Split department?
“A South African boy gazes through a school fence in Cape Town.”
LA Times, March 24,2009
Crime in South Africa
Trending down? 50 murders/day each & every day Highest sexual violence rate outside war
zone Costs to businesses/citizens:
Loss of property, work disruptions Spend to protect Limit hiring; limits self-employment
Running Nomzano Butchery
Vicky & Tam Mangoliso run the butchery
Vendors hesitant to drive in – buy from a middleman
Customers don’t want to shop in the later evening hours
Expenses related to crime prevention
Competition spurs violence
Anti-Foreigner Violence Manifestation of underlying problems
Jerome Delay / AP
Policy Recommendations
Creating Jobs Create special economic zones to encourage business
development, job creation, and skills training Create a two-tiered minimum wage structure
Encouraging Educational Entrepreneurship Encourage the entry of more private-sector educational
entrepreneurs Modify teacher certification requirements
Increasing Security for All South Africans Encourage crime reporting and community involvement Improve “customer satisfaction” levels with the police
South Africa and the World since 1994 Unique International Opportunities
Leading voice for democratic governance in Africa Sole African representative to International
Forums Permanent seat on UN Security Council Influential trading partner Host to big sporting events
But…
Case Study
Zambia Member of SADC and COMESA
SADC rules- dismantle all trade barriers COMESA rules- common external tariff
Committed to free trade and maintaining trade barriers with South Africa
An inconsistent voice?
Good Governance? United Nations SC votes
False Dichotomy Failed Elections
Zimbabwe and Kenya
UN Photo by Devra Berkowitz
Joao Silva for The New York Times
Policy Recommendations
Expanding African Economic Integration Reduce the multiplicity of memberships and barriers to
trade Good Governance
Adopt a principled approach to foreign policy Work towards a more robust strategy for monitoring
elections Focus on Public and Cultural Diplomacy
Expand educational, cultural, and professional exchanges throughout the continent
Expand civil society initiatives
Expanding opportunity
SA Finance Minister, Trevor Manuel, on 3.18.09:
"We must diversify. But that is up to the entrepreneurs. Unfortunately governments are bad at producing entrepreneurs.”
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/page1408?oid=281500&sn=Detail