SOUTH AFRICA What is the state of our nation? SARMA - 18 June 2012

We have come a long way since 1994 Miracle transition to democracyBlack snr managers up from 4% - 26%Percentage of people below $2 a day: down from 12.1% - 5% Highest tax bracket: down from 43% - 40%Murders per day: down from 71- 44Deaths per 1000 below 5 y down from 62-49 Consumer inflation: Down from 9.2% 5%

Or not?Unemployment up from 31.5 35.4% (4.2m people)Black income as percentage of white income down from 21.5 20.4%Registered security guards up with 256% (from 115 331 411 109)Percentage people with HIV up from 1.5% - 17% of populationNumber of farms down from 60 901 39 966

On balance? Is South Africa moving in the right direction?

1994 = 43%2011 = 55.3%

Answer depends on individual or collective vantage point (perception is stronger than fact)

Weakness 1: Incapable stateOur development strategy requires a capable state and active citizens (8)A capable state focussed on service delivery requires a passionate public service (13)

Only 68% spent of infrastructure budget in 2011 (R178bn - R260bn; local government!)Examples of mining and agriculture (5) The time has come to confront uncertainty (31)

Report to Parliament last week.

Budget spend over 95% but delivery targets below 40%Fruitless expenditure = R3.7bn

UN Human Development Index

HDI South Africa 1980 = 0.6591990 = 0.6981994 = 0.6442005 = 0.6782007 = 0.683(2011= 0.619)

Weakness 2: Culture of corruptionNew procurement rulesNew chief procurement officerOfficials with unspent budgets to held liable

Counter-evidence in both public and private sectors is quite strong

Corruption Perception Index

Relative CPI scores for 2011 1. N Zeeland = 9.52. Denmark = 9.45. Singapore = 9.246. Mauritius = 5.164. S Africa = 4.1154 Zimbabwe = 2.2182 Somalia = 1.0

Weakness 3: EducationGood participation rate in primary edWeak throughput rate in high schoolDrop in standards for NSCMisfit of post-school structuresUniversities: low participation and low throughputNB This is the key source of unemployment/unemploy-ability

Weakness 4: Poverty and inequality Dangerous levels of unemployment 18-24 year olds Growing inequalities social alienation and the demand for economic liberationService delivery protests

Gini CoefficientThe Gini coefficient is a summary statistic of income inequality that varies from 0 (in the case of perfect equality where all households earn equal income) to 1 (in the case where one household earns all the income and other households earn nothing).

(Source: http://www.sarpn.org.za/documents/d0000990/)

Top 10 Countries with lowest Gini Coefficients(Source: adapted from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality)

Gini CoefficientColumn1Column2RankUN FigureCountry10.247Denmark20.249Japan30.25Sweden40.254Czech Republic50.258Norway60.258Slovakia70.262Bosnia & Herz80.269Finland90.269Hungary100.281Ukraine

South Africas relative position

Gini CoefficientColumn1Column2RankUN FigureCountry1120.538Honduras1130.549Chile1140.551Guatemala1150.561Panama1160.57Brazil1170.578South Africa1180.584Paraguay1190.586Colombia1200.592Haiti1210.601Bolivia

Opportunity 1: Use democracy

Defend democratic freedoms/institutionsExpose and hold leaders accountableDiminish one party power to below 50%Constitution as supreme law/Independent judiciary

Ordinary people are NOT powerlessParticipate in civil society Anti-retroviral medicine Arms deal re-openedE-toll saga

Opportunity 2: Ride the global power shift

The wave of the new global orderFrom West to East and South From G8 to BRICSFrom old economies to emerging onesFrom commodity exports to beneficiationFrom weak to excellent infrastructure (over R800bn)

RSA in new global order Stable macro-econ and monetary policies Stable non-toxic financial/banking systemIndependent Reserve BankEfficient tax system with on-target collectionAttractive governance rules (JSE rules, King III, FICA)Positive economic growth in global context

Opportunity 3: Green economies SA is perfectly placed to develop leading technologies in wind and solar energyWell positioned to benefit from eco-tourism (quickest job creation)

Opportunity 4: Positive mindset

Positive attitude makes the difference If a situation is on the knifes edge: A positive mindset creates positive effectsA negative mindset is a self-fulfilling prophecy My personal verdict: SA one of the best bets in the period 2012-2020

Thank you very much!

Piet Naude Nelson Mandela Metro University Port Elizabeth

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