$60

0

$63

$61

$64

$65

20k

60k

$62

$66

40k

80k

-20k

RESTAURANTECONOMIC SNAPSHOT

Values greater than 100 = Expansion; Values less than 100 = Contraction

Total eating and drinking place sales(in billions of current dollars)

Eating and drinking place employment(change from the previous month)

RESTAURANT SALES AND JOBS

RESTAURANT PERFORMANCE INDEX

0

-40k

+2.3%

A monthly summary of key indicators from National Restaurant Association research; More details at Restaurant.org/Research

6 months

Source: National Restaurant Association; see reverse for more on RPI

All indicators are for January 2020

1/04 1/20

Same-store sales: 66% report increase over January 2019

Customer traffic: 52% report increase over January 2019

Capital spending: 52% report making expenditure in last 3 months

Sales outlook: 40% expect higher sales in 6 months

Capital spending: 63% plan to make expenditure in next 6 months

Economy: 26% expect economic conditions to improve in

JANUARY 2020: 101.8 +0.7% Current Situation Index: 101.6 +1.1%

Expectations Index: 102.0 +0.2%

2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20

1/19 - 1/20

KEY TAKEAWAYS: Employment in the restaurant industry rose at a steady pace in recent months. According to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, eating and drinking places added a net 24,400 jobs in January on a seasonally- adjusted basis. January represented the fifth time in the last six months that the restaurant industry added more than 20,000 jobs. This was a solid improvement from the modest gains during mid-2019.

KEY TAKEAWAYS: The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in January. The increase was largely the result of same-store sales and customer traffic readings bouncing back from their dampened December levels. January represented the first time in over twoyears that a majority of restaurant operators reported gains in both same-store sales and customer traffic levels during the same month.

2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; figures are seasonally-adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; figures are seasonally-adjusted

KEY TAKEAWAYS: Restaurant sales posted a solid gain for the second consecutive month. Eating and drinking place sales totaled $66.5 billion in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which was up 1.2 percent from December’s volume of $65.8 billion. January’s healthy gain followed a similar increase in December, and propelled restaurant sales to their highest monthly volume on record. As a result of the recent gains, restaurant sales stood 7.4 percent above their year-ago level.

50k

150k

250k

300k

100k

200k

350k

FOOD COSTS & MENU PRICES

THE ECONOMY

Total U.S. employment (change from the previous month)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Wholesale food prices (PPI – All Foods)(percent change from previous month)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Menu prices, grocery store prices & overall U.S. inflation(percent change from same period in previous year)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Overall Inflation RateGrocery Store PricesMenu Prices

1%

1%

0

0

2%

3%

4%

-2%

-3%

0

2%-1%

3.1%

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures +0.1%

2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20

1/19 - 1/20+2.3%

0.7%

2.5%

KEY TAKEAWAYS: The Producer Price Index for All Foods – which represents the change in average prices paid to domestic producers for their output – dipped 0.5 percent in January. January’s decline followed a 0.2 percent downtick in December. However, as a result of steady gains during much of 2019, average wholesale food prices remained 2.3 percent above their year-ago level.

KEY TAKEAWAYS: Menu prices increased 3.1 percent in the 12 months ending January, which represented the eighth straight month with 12-month gains above 3 percent. Within the food-away-from-home sector, fullservice menu prices outpaced growth in quickservice prices in recent months. Fullservice restaurant menu prices increased 3.4 percent in the 12 months ending January 2020, while quickservice prices were up 2.9 percent.

2/19 3/19 4/19 5/19 6/19 7/19 8/19 9/19 10/19 11/19 12/19 1/20

+1.5%1/19 - 1/20

Unemployment rate 3.6%

Average hourly earnings +0.2%

Total nonfarm employment +225,000

Real Disposable Personal Income +0.5%

KEY TAKEAWAYS: The national economy added a net 225,000 jobs in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which representedthe fourth time in the last six months with gains of over 200,000 jobs. The National Restaurant Association expects employment growth to continue at a moderate pace, adding an average of 140,000 jobs each month during 2020. This would be sufficient tokeep the national jobless rate below 4 percent and near a five decade low.

The National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) is a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and the outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry. Launched in 2002, the RPI is released on the last business day of each month. The RPI consists of two components — the Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffc, labor and capital expenditures), and the Expectations Index, which measures restaurant operators’ six-month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions).

Founded in 1919, the National Restaurant Association is the leading business association for the restaurant industry, which comprises more than 1 million restaurant and foodservice outlets and a workforce of 15.6 million employees. We represent the industry in Washington, D.C., and advocate on its behalf. We operate the industry’s largest trade show (NRA Show May 18-21, 2020, in Chicago); leading food safety training and certification program (ServSafe); unique career-building high school program (the NRAEF’s ProStart); as well as the Kids LiveWell program promoting healthful kids’ menu options.