Source Everywhere, Manufacture Everywhere, Sell Everywhere
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Transcript of Source Everywhere, Manufacture Everywhere, Sell Everywhere
Yang Yongliang, "Viridescence, Stock World“ 2009 LMIN Gallery, San Francisco, http://limnartgallery.com/artwork/952850_Yang_Yongliang_Viridescence_Stock_World.html
Source Everywhere, Manufacture Everywhere, Sell Everywhere
A Presentation to CALSIAN Trade Association, Board of Directors, San Francisco, June 29, 2012Presenter: Gus Koehler, Ph.D., President, Time Structures, Inc.
1545 University Ave., Sacramento, CA 916-564-8683 [email protected]
Whom Do We Trade With?What Is Traded?
How Are Both Likely to Change?
US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012
Sweden
Philippines
United Arab Emirates
Chile
Switzerland
Thailand
Italy
France
Malaysia
Belgium
Israel
Brazil
Australia
India
Singapore
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Germany
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Korea, South
Japan
China
Canada
Mexico
2524
2322
2120
1918
1716
1514
1312
1110
98
76
54
32
1
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
California's Top Export Countries by 2011 Value
Millions $s Time Structures
US Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012
TaiwanThailand
United KingdomSwitzerlandPhilippines
United Arab EmiratesSweden
FranceChile
SingaporeGermany
BrazilKorea, South
CanadaItaly
JapanNetherlands
MalaysiaHong Kong
ChinaIndia
AustraliaBelgiumMexico
Israel
2524
2322
2120
1918
1716
1514
1312
1110
98
76
54
32
1
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
California Trade Percent Change by Country 2010 - 2011
Percent
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Economist, The World in 2036, Nov. 22, 2010. Time Structures
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/05/18/business/growth-in-the-g-20.html?ref=world
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70 Trillion Rupees
17 Trillion Rupees
400%
3 Trill
41 Trillion
1,370% Increase
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Middle and Upper248 Billion
2.4 Trillion
Middle and Upper 1.7 Trillion
452 Billion
500% In
creas
e
685%
Increase
Foreign Direct Investment Now Flows to Developing Nations
Source: World Bank, Financial Data, Foreign Direct Investment Net Flows
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Loosers WinnersIndonesia FranceArgentina Netherlands
Malaysia United StatesColombia BelgiumSaudi Arabia Luxembourg
Loosers WinnersUnited Kingdom IndonesiaNetherlands Brazil
HungaryHong Kong SAR, China
Canada United StatesAustria China
Foreign Direct Investment 1997-01
Foreign Direct Investment 2007-11
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING UNITS,...
PARTS OF AIRPLANES OR HELICOPTE...
OPTICAL INST FOR INSPECTING SE...
PARTS & ACCSESORIES FOR MACH T...
LIGHT OILS& PREP (NOT CRUDE) FR...
PHONES FOR CELLULAR NTWKS OR ...
DIGITAL PROCESSING UNITS, N.E.S.O.I.
MED NEEDLES. NESOI, CATHERERS E...
ANTISERA AND BLOOD FRACTIONS,...
COMPOSITE DIAGNOSTIC/LAB REAG...
INSTR & APPL F MEDICAL SURGICAL ...
PORT DIGTL AUTOMATIC DATA PRO...
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P E...
ELECTRONIC INTEGRATED CIRCUITS, ...
ALMONDS, FRESH OR DRIED, SHELLED
MACHINES FOR MAN. SEMICONDUTOR...
PASS VEH SPK-IG INT COM RCPR P ...
FERROUS WASTE & SCRAP NESOI
PROCESSORS AND CONTROLLERS, EL...
AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING STORA...
OIL (NOT CRUDE) FROM PETROL & B...
MACH FOR RECP/CONVR/TRANS/RE...
DIAMONDS, NONINDUSTRIAL, WO...
PARTS & ACCESSORIES FOR ADP MA...
CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT, ENGINES, AND P...25
2423
2221
2019
1817
1615
1413
1211
109
87
65
43
21
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
2011 25 Highest Value CaliforniaOriginated Exports
Millions of DollarsUS Census Bureau, State Exports for California (Origin of Movement) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/statistics/state/zip/index.html#2012
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United States
China
Germany
Japan
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EU (All Members)
United States
China
California’s Largest Metropolitan Centers Drove 73% of the State Exports in 2010
Metropolitan AreaExport Value
(bln $)Direct Export Production
Jobs 2010, (1000s)
Total Export Jobs, 2010
(thousands)
Annuallized Growth rate (2003-2008)
Exports Growth Rate
by Value (2009-10)
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 79.8 312.7 540.7 7.70% 9.00%San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 31.8 110 194.3 13.70% 8.20%San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara 22.8 72.9 144.8 6.10% 12.20%San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos 16 65.5 113.4 9.30% 11.10%Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario 10.9 39.4 73.6 9.30% 9.50%Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura 6.2 16.6 34.2 7.70% 11.90%Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville 6 26.8 44.3 8.10% 6.80%Bakersfield-Delano 4 12.1 23.9 14.40% 9.00%Fresno 3.7 14.5 28.5 9.30% 8.30%Stockton 2 7.5 15.3 7.40% 6.20%Modesto 1.9 6.3 13.4 7.70% 9.00%
Total 185.1 684.3 1,226 9.15% 9.20%
Export Performance of the 11 Largest California Metros of the Top 100 US Metros, 2010
Brookings, Export Nation 2012.
Metropolitan Opportunities to Increase Direct Exports
Unexploited CA runways with capacity to land 747 to increase agricultural and other exports:– Central Coast: Santa Maria – Central Valley: Sacramento, Stockton, Castle,
Fresno, and Bakersfield – Inland Empire: Ontario, March, and San
Bernardino
Source: Jock O'Connell, Foreign Trade Consultant, Time Structures, Inc.
What New Dynamics Drive California’s Global Trade Competitiveness?
Can California Be A First Mover?
Core Issues and California’s Future Competitive Advantage
= Brief Competitive Advantage
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New Materials &Invented ProgrammableOrganisms
+Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Machine Learning melds with cognitive Science
Global Logistics Systems
Ubiquitous use of IT, Massive Data Bases and Social Media
Innovative Workforce SkillsIn Groups
+
+ +Diverse Networks(Research, Financial,Production, Energy, Conservation, Supply, etc.)
+
+ Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction vs. Effects of Climate Change
New OrganizationalForms and Services
Level of Unknown Change: Red Highest, Orange Medium High, Green Medium, & Blue Lowest.
Current and Emerging Multinational Firm Characteristics: Elastic
• Globally, locally focused competitive quality, design, technology, and management
• First World brand building and manufacturing and globally marketed via social media
• Excellent Logistics
• Rapid redefinition and response to changing markets using social media
• Small and Medium Company acquisition savvy and fluid networking
• Sustained IT edge to provide insight and transform business
• Unconventional thinking by local engineering, IT, marketing and other staff
• Play both competitor and partner
Source: Agtmael (2007). The Emerging Markets Century.
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Emerging Micro-Multinationals
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• 30,000 multinationals in 1990 vs. 60,000+ today with smaller average size
• Due to access to technology, and IT • Five+ people with local or global contract workers• Recruit skilled workers Locally: Engineers in Argentina at 1/3
US cost• Very specialized services: programing, data processing, typing
transcripts• Business on broadband, social networks, e-mail, wikis • Highly networked suppliers, and partners• Quality products at low cost• In US run by a foreign expatriate
Entrepreneurial
Kauffman Foundation, 2012 at: http://www.kauffman.org/research-and-policy/kiea-2012-infographic.aspx Time Structures
Entrepreneurial
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72%
54%
45%
36%
30%
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http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/pdf/c04.pdf Time Structures
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Technology Review (MIT) May/June 2012Time Structures
USA
NAS, The Role of the Chemical Sciences in Finding Alternatives to Critical Resources: A Workshop Summary, 2012
Global loss of Manufacturing Jobs to Productivity IT and Other Increases: California is not alone
William A. Ward Clemson, Manufacturing Productivity and the Shifting US,China, and Global Job Scenes—1990 to 2005, University Center for International Trade Working Paper 052507, (August 4, 2005) Time Structures
+
Atlantic, June 13, 2012.
bal
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Global
http://www.itif.org/files/2008_State_New_Economy_Index.pdf Time Structures
Source: McKinsey Global Institute, The World at Work 12http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/mgi/research/labor_markets/the_world_at_work
World too few High-Skilled + Medium Skill Worker = Business Magnet for countries with more skilled workers
Global Million Million
Percent of Total Unmet Worker Demand is:
For California:
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Latinos Will Dominate 2020 Workforce
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Graph : Percent of California's Workforce Population by Ethnicity Aged 15-59
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2000 2010 2020
Whi
te a
nd H
ispa
nic
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
All O
ther
Eth
nic G
roup
s
White
Hispanic
Asian
Pacific Islander
Black
American Indian
Multiracial
Source: CA Dept. of Finance and Time Structures
http://measuringup2008.highereducation.org/print/NCPPHEMUNationalRpt.pdf Time Structures
Source: The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, “Measuring-up 2006.” http://measuringup.highereducation.org/_docs/2006/statereports/CA06.pdf Time Structures
California Certificate and Degree Completion Rate Is Low
“Chasing the American Dream: Recent College Graduates and the Great Recession (2012)
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Global Trade Dynamics Are Chaotic Creating Unexpected Market Opportunities and Collapses• It is not “trade as usual”• Culturally complex middle class markets will grow fast in China, India, and
other BRICS• California has underutilized global export capacity• A highly trained, culturally diverse innovative workforce will drive
competitive advantage as long as there is a skewed global distribution of skills
• Exports markets will move more to the internet requiring higher computer and cultural marketing skills, increasing product churn
• California does not have a monopoly on small multicultural Innovative firms which will play an ever increasing trade role
• Research, patenting and collaboration are global threatening any one country’s long-term domination of a single technology sector
• Productivity, logistics, velocity of service as driven by global IT is critical to competitive advantage
Time Structures, Inc. Contact Information
Presentations like this have been made to, among others, the California Community Colleges, Chancellor’s Office, California Workforce Investment Boards, California Redevelopment Association’s Board of Directors, California Student Financial Aid Commission, California Council on Science and Technology, California Association for Economic Development, and the various local economic development organizations. To make arrangements to have this presentation made to your group or to have one created to meet your particular needs contact:
Gus Koehler, Ph.D., PresidentTime Structures, Inc.916-564-8683 or [email protected]