Some thoughts about Hong Kong’s recent economic development 28 November 2012 KC Kwok Honorary...
-
Upload
wesley-davis -
Category
Documents
-
view
227 -
download
0
Transcript of Some thoughts about Hong Kong’s recent economic development 28 November 2012 KC Kwok Honorary...
Some thoughts about Hong Kong’s recent economic
development
28 November 201228 November 2012
KC KwokKC KwokHonorary Senior Research FellowHonorary Senior Research Fellow
School of Economics & FinanceSchool of Economics & FinanceUniversity of Hong KongUniversity of Hong Kong
Agenda
Major changes around us -unprecedented challengesunprecedented opportunities
The HK economy – structural changes; “ 深层次矛盾” A brief discussion of
some important financial market developmentssome economic concepts and thoughts
2
新世纪头十年,是世界政治经济格局大调整、大变革的十年,是中国工业化、城镇化快速发展的十年,也是我们全面推进改革开放和现代化建设取得辉煌成就的十年。这十年,中国经济年均增长 10.5% ,国内生产总值由世界第六位上升到第二位,对外贸易总额由第七位上升到第二位 ; 产业结构优化升级,农业基础不断加强,中西部地区发展加快,各具特色的区域发展格局初步形成 ; 各项社会事业蓬勃发展,城乡居民收入大幅提高。中国经济实力、综合国力、人民生活水平迈上新台阶,国家面貌发生了翻天覆地的变化。
中国国务院总理温家宝 , 2011 年 9 月 14日
3
Source: Economist4
The Global Financial Crisis
Source: FinancialCrisis.org5
资料来源 : www.money.cnn.com
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance …We’re still dancing.”
Chuck Prince, former Citigroup Chief Executive, July 2007.
6
7
US Property Price Index, 2001-2012 August
Source : MIT & Standard & Poor’s
… My dad died when I was young. He was a good and decent man. I still remember a couple of things he would say that have really stuck with me. ‘Son you are either part of the problem or part of the solution.’ Regrettably, President Obama has become part of the problem,...and Mitt Romney is the solution.The other thing my dad would say is that every generation of Americans leaves their children better off. That's the American legacy.Sadly, for the first time in our history, we are on a path which will undo that legacy. …
Paul Ryan, 11 Aug, 2012.
8
Source: Google9
Source: European Trade Union Confederation website10
“OCCUPY WALL STREET”
Source: Wall Street Journal11
Will China escape the middle-income trap?
Source: “China 2030”12
China – Exports and Imports value index (2008=100)
Source : CEIC13
China – FDI Inflows and Outflows
Source : UNCTAD, “World Investment Report, 2012”14
*People 25 Years and Over ; ( ) People 18 Years and Over Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2011 & U.S. Census Bureau
China US
(mn)
(Junior College & above) (College, Degree or Above)*
1964 2.89 18.43
1982 6.20 44.74
1990 16.12 61.37
2000 45.71 89.29 (101.54)
2010 119.64 111.76 (126.63)
Number of people with higher education
15
Source : The Daily Beast16
Paul Romer’s New Growth Theory
"Old growth theory says we have to decide how to allocate scarce resources among alternative uses."
"New growth theory says, 'Bullxxxx!' We're in this world, it's got some objects, sure, but it's got these ideas, too, and all that stuff about scarcity and price systems is just wrong.'“
“People are reasonably good at forming estimates based on addition, but for operations such as compounding that depend on repeated multiplication, we systematically underestimate how fast things grow.”
17
Size Matters
China is a world on its own; momentum built up in a continental size economy is not easy to reverse
The rolling stages of development
The resilience to downturns
The speed, non-linearity and complexities of development
The attractions of sizeable markets to investors - the opportunities for scaling up, agglomeration and economies of scale; and the opportunities and potentials for innovation and ideas
China and the Rest of the World have to learn how to live with each other
18
Source: OECD Development Centre19
Source: OECD Development Centre20
GDP per Capita
21 Source : CEIC
Impact of Mainland’s development on HK The rapid growth & evolution of the Mainland
dimension in HK’s economy & businesses The Mainland factor in making HK more global Growth in Mainland-related demand on HK’s
producer services consumer goods & services; healthy, education,
social services fixed assets
Rapid structural transformation of the HK economy winners & losers; income disparity competition & cooperation
Cross boundary issues in public policy
22
Hong Kong searching for its role
Supporting China’s economic integration with the world financial services; trade; investment; “going out”
Headquarters economy From helping China’s hardware development to
promoting China’s soft power ? social services, rule of law, anti-corruption &
open government, governance, NGOs, etc. the overseas Chinese network nurturing mutual understanding & cooperation
between China & the rest of the world
23
HK’s 4 “pillar industries”
Source: C&SD24
Making HK’s financial centre international -- Equity funds raised through HKEx
Source: CEIC & HKEx25
Hong Kong : RMB Deposits
Source: HKMA26
Source: World Economic Forum website27
Source: InvestHK, Regional Headquarters Survey 28
Source: InvestHK, Regional Headquarters Survey 29
Hong Kong dealing with some of its “deep-rooted contradictions”
Inflation & asset price bubbles Income disparity Coping with demands from and integration
with the Mainland Internal restructuring - rising sectors vs
declining sectors Conservation vs development Values and expectations of the younger
generations vs traditional beliefs Ageing & population policy
30
Property Price, Rental and Nominal GDP
Source: CEIC31
Age Profile of HK’s Population
Source : C&SD32
Population Aged 15 and Over by Age Group and Educational Attainment, 1996
Source : C&SD
19961996
33
20112011
Population Aged 15 and Over by Age Group and Educational Attainment, 2011
Source : C&SD34
WORLD DEBT GUIDE
Source: Economist35
Source: Economist36
Source: Economist37
Source: Economist38
Yield on US 10-year treasuries
Source: Wall Street Journal website39
Source: Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, BIS40
M2 – EU, USA and China
Source : CEIC41
中国 : 贷款与M2 对 GDP 比例 , 1978 – 2011
资料来源 :CEIC 及中华人民共和国 2011 年国民经济和社会发展统计公报42
China & Hong Kong – M2
Source : CEIC43
Some conceptual and theoretical issues
“The Great Moderation”, “Financial Triumphalism”& the “Minsky moment”
“irrational exuberance” – what should monetary policy target?
George Soros – theory of reflexivity & “the Super Bubble”
Reforming financial market regulations and supervision
Rethinking the “Washington Consensus”, capitalism, and the welfare state?
Debates about “austerity”, tax cuts, and “QE”
44
资料来源 : YouTube
45
资料来源 : YouTube46
资料来源 : YouTube47
48