Solsona Pettenella et al pine markets(1) -...
Transcript of Solsona Pettenella et al pine markets(1) -...
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Market developments for pine products: actors and patterns of
trade in a changing market conditions
Davide Pettenella, Mauro Masiero, Hafiz Umair Masood Awan, Enrico Vidale
MEDPINE 5 Solsona, 22-26 September, 2014
Outline
• Ongoing structural changes affecting the pine market economy
• Three commercial products: – Pine nuts – Pine resin – Wood logs and sawnwood from pine
• Conclusion
4 trends:
A. Reduced consumption of pulp and paper
B. Development of the bio-energy segment
C. Growing role of forest plantations in wood supply
D. Increasing importance (and recognition) of NWFP
… under a general feature of the market: structural instability
Ongoing structural changes affecting the pine market economy
A. Reduced consumption of pulp and paper (EU market)
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Reduced consumption of newsprint (US market)
Source: Peter J.Ince, 2008
Reduced employment in the pulp and paper sectors (US market)
B. Development of the bio-energy segment
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Opposite views
However we do have to consider: - The reduced demand for industrial wood - The role of trade (import from outside EU) - The role of prices (higher demand ! higher prices ! higher supply)
Key message: we will face a problem of scarcity
http://www.forthenergy.co.uk/biomass.asp
1300 M! investment 300 MWe + 260 MWt 40 new jobs (32.5 M!/employee) Consumption: 5.3 M ton biomass/yr 90% imported (75% from Florida)
Market distortion by public interventions. An interesting example
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Unfair competition between the bioenergy and the panel industry sectors
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The “cascade approach” (2013 EU Forest Strategy communication, p. 5-6)
Fonte: FAO State of the World’s Forests 2007
" 230 M ha in 2005 " 75% for production, 25% for protection " mainly conifers: 32% gen. Pinus; Eucaliptus 8%
Planted forests in the world according to management objectives and continent (1990 – 2000 - 2005)
C. Growing role of plantations
Pine plantations around the globe: main functions
Source: own elaboration on http://www.fao.org/forestry/plantedforests/67507/en/
Age-classes of pine plantations around the globe: quite a lot of young stands
Source: own elaboration on http://www.fao.org/forestry/plantedforests/67507/en/
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Productive pine plantations by age class and geographical distribution: a great potential in NA
Source: own elaboration on http://www.fao.org/forestry/plantedforests/67507/en/
Total consumption
Wood from plantations
Forecast of industrial roundwood consumption from forest plantations (Source: FAO)
Global forest regions and expected IRRs* from forest investments * Internal Rate of Return
Historical sources of return from forest plantations
Source: Daos Oy, 2012
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Forests as an opportunity for investments: land prices
Source: Daos Oy, 2012
Forests as an opportunity for investments: wood prices
Source: Daos Oy, 2012
“…From Chile to Portugal, from Brazil to Indonesia, from Uruguay to Spain, from South Africa to New Zealand, from India to Thailand, people are organizing to oppose what they have called tree deserts, green cancer, green invading army, selfish trees or socioeconomic deserts…” (www.wrm.org.uy)
D. Increasing importance of NWFP Wood vs. NWFP: general trade overview (raw prod.)
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Bill
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US$
Wild NWFP/Wood % Firewood + Timber Wild NWFP
Wood codes: 4401, 4403 NWFP: only wild raw products collected in EU
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The problem of NWFP definition
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NWFP (all) Mixed source Wild NWFP
Different definitions, different outputs!
NWFP/industrial wood production values in different EU countries
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Source: Forest Europe 2011, modif. (year 2007)
NTFPs (1/2)
Total value: !822.44 M Average marginal value: !18.10/ha
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Lebanon Italy
Spain Morocco*
Bosnia and Herzegovina Cyprus
Slovenia Tunisia
Egypt France Algeria Croatia Albania Turkey
SM EM
NEM NWM
Total Mediterranean
ROUNDWOOD NTFPs
% incidence of wood & NTFP production value in MED countries and sub-regions
Source: own elaboration from FAO, 2010
Relative incidence of NTFP types on the total economic value of NTFPs in the Med region
Acorns and nuts
26,7%
Animal products 24,8%
Mushrooms and truffles 15,1%
Cork 13,8%
Honey 12,2%
Seeds 3,0%
Herbs 2,3%
Fruits 0,6%
Fodder and hay
0,0%
Other 1,5%
FAO FRA 2010 figures date back to 2005, cover just 14 out 21 countries, and do not refer to all products (e.g. Argan oil in Morocco, pine seeds partially reported, cork unclearly classified…)
A general feature of the market: structural instability A good indicator: wood prices
Source: Daos Oy, 2012
-45%
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Instability not only in the demand (economic crisis) but also in the supply.
Schelhaas, 2008
Main large damage event (storms, fires, insect attacks, …) to (ageing) European forests
Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in British Columbia (CAN)
Market more unstable
Schelhaas, 2008 Forests more
vulnerable
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A brief market analysis of the main pine products NWFP Wood products Pine nuts
Resin - Rosin and resin acids - Salts of rosin
Roundwood - Scots pine
sawlogs - Other Scots pine
industrial rough wood
- Industrial rough wood of other pine species
Sawnwood - Scots pine sawnwood - Planed sawnwood of
other pine species - Scots pine small
sawnwood - Other sawnwood of
other pine species
Our main sources: - value of production: a new estimate of Med forest TEV - trada data: EUROSTAT (2014)
Value of the production of pine nuts and resin (Med area)
Pine nuts Pine resin
Production (tons)
Value (M !)
16,545 48.7
5,295 83.8
18,992 307.7
Data source
FAO FRA 2010
Alternative Min
Alternative Max
Production (tons)
Value (M !)
1,705 0.9
8,343 2.6
9,821 3.2
Production (tons)
Value (M !)
101,428 163.3
142,300 142.3
142,300 327.3 Perez et al., 2004; NFC, 2005 and 2012; Mutke et al., 2012
and 2013; Sfeir, 2011; Daly et al., 2012; GDF, 2009.
IGN, 2013; Spanos et al., 2010; NFC, 2007; Cesefor, 2009;
Magrama, 2011; GDF, 2009; Satil et al., 2011.
Cork
APCOR, 2010; Daly et al., 2012.
Still minor products, in relation to other MED NWFP
Pine nuts Pine nuts production and gathering in “Mediterranean” countries (sorry Portuguese friends!)
nr = not relevant; na =not available * estimated assuming production levels per hectare as defined by Daly et al. (2012) for Tunisia. Source: own elaboration from aPerez et al., 2004; bNFC, 2005; cINC, 2012; dMutke et al., 2012; eSfeir, 2011 [Note: production figures refer to 2005 and assume an average production of 300-320 kg/ha of edible nuts]; fWahid et al., 2010; gMutke et al., 2013; hDaly et al., 2012 [Note: production figures assume an average production of 400 kg/ha of cones, i.e. 60-100 kg/ha of edible nuts]; iGDF, 2009.
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Pine nuts trade: a central role of the EU
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
Pine nuts: increasing EU dependence from other countries (China, Pakistan, US, …)
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
Pine nut prices: huge tensions Driving forces: - many pathogens such as the western conifer
seed bug (Leptoglossus occidentalis); production in the Med region has fallen from 2,500 to 905 tons in 2011 (INC, 2012)
- Pine Mouth Syndrome (PMS): nuts from some species such as Pinus armandii (Chinese white pine) and Pinus massoniana (Chinese red pine) include irritating terpenoids and other compounds
http://espresso.repubblica.it/food/dettaglio/pinoli-boom-di-furti/2203174
Max: 65 !/kg (consumer price)
Price boom, with a recent reduction of trade
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
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Pine resins Areas and species used to pine resin extraction in Mediterranean countries
* tapping activities ceased Source: own elaboration from aFAO,1995; bIGN, 2013; cSpanos et al., 2010; dINFC, 2007; eCesefor, 2009; fMagrama, 2011; gGDF, 2009 [Note: calculated according to average figures for production forests and considering only non degraded pine forests]; hSatil et al., 2011.
Pine resin production value (1,000 Euro) in Med countries The 7 top exporter
in the world (2013)
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
The 7 top importer in the EU (2013)
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Rosin and resin acids: strong trade unbalance, but recent reduction in import from outside EU (China, Brazil and Argentina, Indonesia and Vietnam)
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
Salt of rosin: again the impacts of the economic crisis on trade
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
Average price changes during 2010-2013 for rosin and resin acids
Source: our elaboration on EUROSTAT data
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820000000
2010 2011 2012 2013
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Average Quantity (Kg)
Average unit price (!/Kg)
Pine wood
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Quantity and value of Med pine wood production: no data available (but pines are the predominant species!)
Roundwood production value in Mediterranean countries (1990, 2000, 2005, 2010)
• Leading countries: France, Turkey, Spain, Italy, Croatia;
• Only Turkey has a clear trend (positive), much influencing the overall performance of the region
• Still a large role played by fuelwood
… still a large role played by fuelwood
Overall fuel wood increased five times in the last 10 years
According to FAO (2012), the Mediterranean region hosts the 1st (Italy) and the 4th (Turkey) firewood importers worldwide.
fuelwood
timber
Trade balance Scots pine (EU, value, 2002-13) Industrial roundwood (= timber)
Sawnwood
• Large investment in sawmills in the recent past ! increased avrg. size
• Need for large amount of logs to cover the investment costs
• High prices paid for the raw material
• Stagnant domestic demand, increased export of sawnwood, lower profits for the sawmill
The reduced role of small sawmills is decreasing the stability of markets.
Trade balance other pines (EU, value, 2002-13) Industrial roundwood (= timber)
Sawnwood Same trends! (even more pronounced)
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Summary view: EU pine products imports
Red: industrial pine roundwood Green: semi-finished pine wood products Blue = NWFP
Summary view: EU pine products exports
Red: industrial pine roundwood Green: semi-finished pine wood products Blue = NWFP
Conclusion • More globalized wood and NWFP
markets • Increased demand for low grade
wood assortments • A very dynamic NWFP market, with
new room for expanding EU supply • Economic crisis: limited reduction in
NWFP trade, but not in prices
• Other products (mushrooms, greeneries, …) and ES can be relevant sources of income for pine forests Thanks for your attention!