SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE. HAS THE EARTH WARMED? Climatic Research Unit, UK.
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Transcript of SOLAR VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE. HAS THE EARTH WARMED? Climatic Research Unit, UK.
SOLAR VARIABILITY AND
CLIMATE
HAS THE EARTH WARMED?
Climatic Research Unit, UK
HAS THE EARTH WARMED?
MANKIND - EARTH
CO2
SUN - EARTH
Mathew (5)
SUN - EARTH
The solar open magnetic field, solar wind and energetic particles affect the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere
SUN - EARTH
Correlations between solaractivity and climate indicators
Cycle lengthNH temperature
Friis-Christensen &Lassen (1994)
SUN - EARTH
Correlations between solaractivity and climate indicators
H. Avercamp
SUN - EARTH:Possible Mechanisms
Total irradiance variations: energy input into the Earth's atmosphere
UV irradiance variations: changes in stratospheric chemistry
Modulation of cosmic ray flux by solar magnetism: changes in cloud cover
VARIABLE SUN
1996 2000
PASSAGE OF A SUNSPOT GROUP
FLUX TUBES
PASSAGE OF A FACULAR GROUP
3- COMPONENT MODEL
F() - quiet Sun flux (Fontenla et al. 1993)
F() - sunspot flux; separate umbra/penumbra (cool Kurucz models)
F() - facular flux (modified P-model; Fontenla et al. 1993; Unruh et al. 2000)
(t) - filling factor of sunspots (MDI continuum)
(t) - filling factor of faculae (MDI magnetograms)
s
f
FILLING FACTORS
= 1 (or 0) s
f
= 1--q s f
TOTAL FLUX
TSI: 1996 - 2001
Krivova et al. 2002
MODEL VS. OBSERVATIONS
SPECTRAL IRRADIANCE
SECULAR CHANGE:Stellar Evidence
Baliunas & Jastrow 1990
SECULAR CHANGE:Heliospheric Evidence
SECULAR CHANGE:Heliospheric Evidence
1996 2000
SECULAR CHANGE:Heliospheric Evidence
SOLAR VARIABILITYAND CLIMATE
Solanki & Krivova 2002
