Solar Power: A National Perspective

Solar Power: A National Perspective

Julia Judd, Executive DirectorSolar Electric Power Association

Solar Electric Power Association Facilitating Utility Use and Integration of Solar Electric Power

Presentation Overview Who is SEPA? Solar Market Trends and Data Policies that Make a Difference Technologies of Today and

Tomorrow A Look into the Crystal Ball


Who is SEPA?


About SEPA Formed in 1992 as the Utility

PhotoVoltaic Group (UPVG) Association membership:

Electric Utilities – 75 members Solar Electric Industry – 75 members Solar Electric “Stakeholders”

(researchers, consultants, investors, architects, etc) – 30 members


Association Goals Tools - Provide tools to utilities and

electric service providers on the use and integration of solar.

Networking - Foster business to business networking.

Information - Share information on solar electric technologies, applications, and programs.

Policy/Regulation Tracking – Evaluate and report on policies, regulations, and legislation.


Solar Market Trends and Data


Big Name Manufacturers


Wal-Mart US Postal Service Staples Johnson & Johnson Google Microsoft The list goes on and on…

Big Name Customers


Power purchase agreements (PPAs) are emerging as a preferred deal structure No capital investment by building owner Fixed price of electricity for long time period No balance sheet impact Allows customers to benefit from federal tax

credit even if they aren’t allowed to take it

Financing Trend - Purchasing Solar Electricity Rather than Solar Panels


Photovoltaic Installations by Country - 2006

Rest of World

9%

US8%

Rest of Europe

11%Japan17%

Germany55%

Source: Solarbuzz


Solar Resource Compared to Germany


US Grid-Tied Installs

Source: IREC


Grid-Tied Installations by State(kW-dc)

2005 2006 % Change

% of Market

CA 52,015 70,573 36% 70%

NJ 5,526 17,858 223% 18%

NY 1,418 2,709 91% 3%

NV 494 2,619 434% 3%

AZ (e) 1,549 2,088 35% 2%

MA 640 1,452 127% 1%

CO (e) 179 933 521% <1%

TX 593 714 20% <1%

CT 174 541 211% <1%

OR 353 529 50% <1%

All Others (e)

699 1,450 107% 1%

TOTAL 63,640 101.466

59.4% 59.4%

Source: IREC

(e) Includes some estimates


Policies that Make a Difference


Extends ITC for 8 years Removes 30% cap for commercial

systems and $2,000 cap on residential systems

Modifies credit to $1,500 per ½ kW Provides AMT (alternative minimum tax)

relief Provides 3-year accelerated depreciation

for commercial systems

Securing America’s Energy Independence Act (HR 550, S 590)


An 8-year extension of the ITC will: Create more than 55,000 new American jobs

in the solar industry and over $45 billion in economic investment by 2015.

Displace over 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and save American consumers over $32 billion.

SEIA makes it simple for individuals to join letter writing campaign – www.seia.org

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association


California Solar Initiative (CSI) 3,000 megawatts of new, solar-

produced electricity by 2017 CPUC will provide over $2 billion in

incentives for existing residential homes and existing and new commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties

CEC will manage a $350 million program to encourage solar in new home construction through its New Solar Homes Partnership


CSI offers: Incentives starting at $2.50 per watt for

systems up to 1 MW in size Pay-for-performance incentive structure

to reward high-performing solar projects Funds for solar installations for existing

and new low-income and affordable housing

More info at www.gosolarcalifornia.ca.gov


California Senate Bill 1 (SB1) Highlights Mandates the creation of municipal

utility solar programs Increases net metering cap Requires production homebuilders to

offer solar as an option


Technologies of Today and Tomorrow


Today – Crystalline Cells Silicon shortage is driving innovation Higher efficiency

SunPower – 22% efficient cell Sanyo – 21% efficient cell

Thinner wafers Reduces consumption of expensive

silicon


Less so Today - Thin-film

Source: NREL

Production Capacity vs. Calendar Year


Crystalline versus Thin-FilmMarket Share

Today 2010

Crystalline 93% 80%

Thin-film 7% 20%


Entrance of Concentrator PV (CPV)

Source: Sharp Electronics


A Look into the Crystal Ball


Short Term Softening market = price decreases

Saw price increase in 2006 due to polysilicon shortage

Polysilicon supply is not as tight as originally expected

Prometheus Institute anticipates 20% drop in 2007 (from $4/watt to $3.25/watt)


Longer Term - 2010 Thin film growing to ~20% of market Price decreases up to 50%

$4.25 installed

Largest potential problem – pool of qualified installers to meet demand


America’s largest solar eventwww.SolarPowerConference.com


For more information:

Julia Judd, Executive Director (ext. 4)[email protected]

202-857-0898www.SolarElectricPower.org

Solar Power: A National Perspective

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