Solar Photovoltaic Technology - Markit PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY (December 2010) Industrial Scale...

© SRI Consulting PEP Report 276

Abstract Process Economics Program Report 276 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

(December 2010)

Industrial Scale (>200 KWe) and utility scale (>1 MWe) photovoltaic (PV) systems that absorb light photons and convert them to electricity (electrons) are at the edge of commercial cost competitiveness (grid parity) in geographical regions characterized by high priced electricity. Two technologies dominate commercial practice: silicon based systems and thin-film systems. Advances in technology have significantly improved cost competitiveness, but the commercial business still relies upon government subsidies. Like other ‘renewable energy’ technologies, societal concerns over greenhouse gas-caused climate change provide the justification for the subsidies.

In this study, we examine the process technology, preliminary engineering design, and corresponding economics (capital cost, unit production cost) for commercial scale, grassroots PV installations involving three technologies: 1) silicon-based, 2) thin-film, and 3) concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) offerings of several commercial vendors.

Between 2002 and 2008, demand growth rates for PV systems, on a global annualized basis, averaged over 40% per year. The global recession of 2008–2009 virtually eliminated growth, but (as of 2Q, 2010) growth is resuming at a modest level. Installed global PV capacity in 2010 was only 6,000 MW, representing less than 0.1% of total global electrical generating capacity. The hypothetical opportunities for market share gain are enormous.

Whether significant PV demand growth can resume will depend upon 2 factors: 1) the willingness of governments to continue subsidies, primarily through feed-in tariffs, and 2) the ability of proposed PV systems to compete not only with conventional power generation technologies, but more importantly with other ‘renewal generation technologies’ that achieve the same societal goals (fewer CO2 emissions) at lower generating costs. Alternative ‘green generation’ technologies include biomass conversion, wind and wave power, conventional nuclear and hydro power, and solar thermal power.

Looking beyond the next ten years, PV business viability will certainly be affected by improvements in process technology, most often related to sunlight energy capture efficiency. However, the total installed cost of a viable PV system includes many cost components driven more by labor costs than by technology improvements, such as the physical installation infrastructure and electrical tie-in of solar modules. Whether total production cost improvements can be driven to market-competitive levels is not knowable at this time.

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGY

Report No. 276

by Anthony Pavone

December 2010

Menlo Park, California 94025

Process Economics Program

A private report by the

SRIC agrees to assign professionally qualified personnel to the preparation of the Process Economics Program’s reports and will perform the work in conformance with generally accepted professional standards. No other warranties expressed or implied are made. Because the reports are of an advisory nature, neither SRIC nor its employees will assume any liability for the special or consequential damages arising from the Client’s use of the results contained in the reports. The Client agrees to indemnify, defend, and hold SRIC, its officers, and employees harmless from any liability to any third party resulting directly or indirectly from the Client’s use of the reports or other deliverables produced by SRIC pursuant to this agreement.

For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI Consulting programs specializing in marketing research. THE CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most major chemicals and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD PETROCHEMICALS PROGRAM covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition the SRIC DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States, Western Europe, Canada, and East Asia, South America and Mexico.

CONTENTS

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1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................1-1

POLICIES TO PROMOTE PV COMMERCIAL INSTALLATIONS ............................. 1-5

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND .................................................................................... 1-5

SCOPE OF THIS REPORT........................................................................................ 1-6

HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ................................................................................... 1-6

PHOTOVOLTAIC INTEGRATED PRODUCT CHAIN................................................ 1-6

COMPOSITION OF SOLAR WAFERS ......................................................................1-9

ENERGY CONVERSION EFFICIENCY.....................................................................1-11

HISTORICAL PV BUSINESS GROWTH ...................................................................1-14

MAJOR PV INDUSTRY PRODUCERS...................................................................... 1-17

2 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 2-1

3 VALUE PROPOSITION FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS .................................................... 3-1

COST PENALTY TO OVERCOME FOR PV POWER............................................... 3-1

PHOTOVOLTAIC VALUE PROPOSITION ................................................................ 3-7

ADDRESSING PHOTOVOLTAIC COST COMPETITIVENESS ISSUES.................. 3-8

Feed-In Tariffs ............................................................................................................3-9

Other Governmental Subsidy Mechanisms................................................................ 3-12

ACHIEVING ‘GRID PARITY’ ...................................................................................... 3-12

IMPACT OF ECONOMIC INCENTIVES .................................................................... 3-16

WHERE PHOTOVOLTAICS ARE COMMERCIALLY COST COMPETITIVE ........... 3-18

PV Power as Peaking Power...................................................................................... 3-19

PV Power versus No Power ....................................................................................... 3-20

TECHNOLOGY DRIVEN PRODUCTION COST REDUCTIONS ..............................3-20

Quantum Dots.............................................................................................................3-25

Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) ................................................................... 3-25

CONTENTS (Continued)

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Dow Chemical’s Residential Roofing Solar Shingles ................................................. 3-25

Aggregate Effect of Technology Improvements ......................................................... 3-26

INSTITUTIONAL BARRIERS TO COMMERCIALIZATION ....................................... 3-27

Misrepresentation of Claims....................................................................................... 3-27

Market Hype ...............................................................................................................3-28

Technical Performance............................................................................................... 3-29

Cost Competitiveness................................................................................................. 3-30

Durability.....................................................................................................................3-32

System Degradation over Time.................................................................................. 3-32

Macro Economic Impacts ........................................................................................... 3-33

Benign Environmental Impacts................................................................................... 3-34

Energy Independence ................................................................................................ 3-34

PV Business Job Creation.......................................................................................... 3-35

OVERCOMING ANCILLARY FACILITIES LIABILITIES ............................................ 3-36

ROOFTOP FIRE PROBLEMS IN LOS ANGELES..................................................... 3-38

CERTIFYING PV PERFORMANCE (INDUSTRY STANDARDS) ............................. 3-39

Providing Adequate Grid Transmission Capacity....................................................... 3-41

Financing Renewable Energy that Depends upon Subsidies .................................... 3-42

Overcoming Local Environmental Opposition to Specific Project Plans .................... 3-42

Overcoming Stagnant Electrical Demand Markets .................................................... 3-43

ENVIRONMENT, HEALTH AND SAFETY (EHS) CONSIDERATIONS .................... 3-43

MARKET POSITION OF PV WAFER TECHNOLOGIES........................................... 3-44

COST COMPARISON OF POLYSILICON VERSUS THIN FILM PV CELLS............ 3-46

Organic PV Systems .................................................................................................. 3-48

SECTION 3 APPENDIX—PV STANDARDS..............................................................3-48

4 PHOTOVOLTAICS INDUSTRY STATUS.................................................................. 4-1


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ECONOMICS OF PV POWER................................................................................... 4-1

PRODUCT DESCRIPTION ........................................................................................ 4-1

PV Life Cycle Description ........................................................................................... 4-2

Solar Module Dimensions and Characteristics .......................................................... 4-3

CRYSTALLINE SILICON VERSUS THIN-FILM TECHNOLOGY .............................. 4-6

Thin-Film PV Manufacturing Cost Advantage ............................................................4-12

PRODUCT APPLICATIONS....................................................................................... 4-17

Migration from Off-Grid to On-Grid Applications ........................................................ 4-18

Cost Advantaged PV Applications..............................................................................4-22

WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK ................................................................................... 4-23

100 Year Energy Forecast.......................................................................................... 4-23

Electrification .............................................................................................................. 4-24

EIA FORECAST ELECTRICITY DEMAND ................................................................4-27

U.S. Energy Demand Forecast ..................................................................................4-29

Renewable Energy Policy Prescriptions.....................................................................4-29

Feed-in Tariffs.............................................................................................................4-30

MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT....................................................................... 4-31

Recession Impact on PV Business ............................................................................ 4-37

PHOTOVOLTAIC DEMAND....................................................................................... 4-38

Historical Photovoltaic Demand .................................................................................4-38

The PV Business in the 1980s and 1990s .................................................................4-40

The 2000s Decade and Global Warming ................................................................... 4-41

2008 and the Year of Change .................................................................................... 4-43

PV MARKET REBOUND FROM 2008 GLOBAL RECESSION ................................. 4-45

GLOBAL PV MODULE DEMAND 2009 ..................................................................... 4-51

2009 Position of Western Europe...............................................................................4-52

2009 Position of USA ................................................................................................. 4-52


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Global PV Demand in 2010........................................................................................ 4-55

Quantification of Spanish PV Demand .......................................................................4-57

Lessons Learned by PV Industry from 2008–2009 Global Recession ...................... 4-57

PV Demand Forecast Post 2010................................................................................4-59

The PV Business in Germany .................................................................................... 4-62

The PV Business in Spain .......................................................................................... 4-65

The PV Business in USA............................................................................................ 4-66

The PV Business in China.......................................................................................... 4-72

The PV Business in Japan ......................................................................................... 4-75

PV SUPPLY................................................................................................................ 4-76

Historic Global PV Capacity ....................................................................................... 4-76

Forecast Global PV Capacity ..................................................................................... 4-79

MAJOR SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC COMPETITORS................................................. 4-85

2009 Status of Competitors ........................................................................................ 4-85

Regional Distribution of Solar Wafer/Cell Capacity.................................................... 4-89

Key Solar Cell and Module Industry Participants ....................................................... 4-90

2010 Status of Competitors ........................................................................................ 4-91

First Solar Capacity Expansions ................................................................................4-94

Dow Corning Road Map for Success .........................................................................4-95

Tool Makers ................................................................................................................4-95

PV System Installers .................................................................................................. 4-96

Product Chain Integration........................................................................................... 4-96

Wall Street Perceptions .............................................................................................. 4-97

Entrance of Established Companies ..........................................................................4-98

PV PRICES................................................................................................................. 4-99

Historic PV Module and Panel Prices.........................................................................4-99

Comparison of PV Cell and Module Prices ................................................................4-102


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2008 Module Pricing................................................................................................... 4-103

2010 Module Pricing................................................................................................... 4-104

PV Module Producer Costs ........................................................................................ 4-104

Segmented PV Component Prices............................................................................. 4-105

Balance of System Costs ........................................................................................... 4-106

Forecast Module Prices Post 2010 ............................................................................4-107

SECTION 4 APPENDIX—REPRESENTATIVE PV MODULE SPECIFICATIONS.... 4-108

5 THE PHOTOVOLTAIC EFFECT—PHYSICS ............................................................ 5-1

OBSERVED PHENOMENA ....................................................................................... 5-1

The Photoelectric Effect ............................................................................................. 5-1


Max Planck’s Quantum Theory Explanation for the Photoelectric Effect................... 5-3

Photoelectric Effect..................................................................................................... 5-5

Albert Einstein and the Photoelectric Effect ............................................................... 5-5

NATURE OF LIGHT AND OTHER ELECTROMAGNETIC RADIATION................... 5-6

Dual Nature of Photons and Electrons .......................................................................5-6

Wave Theory of Light ................................................................................................. 5-6

Quantum (Particle) Theory of Light ............................................................................5-8

Reconciliation of Wave and Quantum Theory of Light............................................... 5-8

EARLY PHOTOELECTRIC EFFECT DEVICE ARCHITECTURES........................... 5-9

Nikola Tesla’s Solar Cell Apparatus ...........................................................................5-9

Practical Photovoltaic Cell .......................................................................................... 5-9

DESIGN ARCHITECTURE FOR MODERN PV CELLS ............................................5-11

Use of Semiconductor Solids ..................................................................................... 5-12

Semiconductors Made with P-N Junctions.................................................................5-12

Modern Configuration of PV Cells ..............................................................................5-12

Front Side Electrical Contact ...................................................................................... 5-13


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Surface Reflection and Anti-Reflection Coatings ....................................................... 5-13

Rear Electrical Contact............................................................................................... 5-13

Encapsulants .............................................................................................................. 5-14

Multi-Junction (Tandem) Solar Cells ..........................................................................5-14

ENHANCED SOLAR CELL ARCHITECTURES ........................................................ 5-15

CURRENT-VOLTAGE RESPONSE OF A SOLAR CELL..........................................5-18

COMMERCIAL SOLAR CELL ENERGY CONVERSION EFFICIENCY.................... 5-20

6 SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS.............................. 6-1

PV MODULE INTEGRATED PRODUCT CHAIN....................................................... 6-1

BASIC ROOF TOP ON-GRID PV SYSTEM............................................................... 6-2

SOLAR CURRENT INVERTERS ............................................................................... 6-3

Solar Inverter Function & Design ............................................................................... 6-3

Inverter Ancillary Capabilities ..................................................................................... 6-3

Solar Inverter Function & Design ............................................................................... 6-4

Solar Inverter Manufacturers ......................................................................................6-4

Solar Inverter Specifications....................................................................................... 6-5

Representative Inverter Costs.................................................................................... 6-8

OTHER ON-GRID PV CONSIDERATIONS AND COMPONENTS ........................... 6-9

Design Standards .......................................................................................................6-9

Module Framing System............................................................................................. 6-9

On-Grid Component Enhancements .......................................................................... 6-9

Tracking Systems .......................................................................................................6-10

BASIC ROOF TOP OFF-GRID PV SYSTEM............................................................. 6-12

Dual Master Switches................................................................................................. 6-13

Electrical Sub-Stations ............................................................................................... 6-14

Building Integrated Photovoltaics ............................................................................... 6-14


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COMPONENT ECONOMICS..................................................................................... 6-14

7 DESIGN BASIS FOR INDUSTRIAL SCALE PHOTOVOLTAICS SYSTEMS .......... 7-1

BUSINESS OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................... 7-1

SCOPE OF PROJECT ............................................................................................... 7-2

Plant Design Criteria................................................................................................... 7-3

PRODUCTION CAPACITY ........................................................................................ 7-3

PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS................................................................................... 7-4

MODULE SPECIFICATIONS AND PACKAGING...................................................... 7-5

Module Packaging ......................................................................................................7-6

PLANT LOCATION.....................................................................................................7-7

Location of PV Power Plant........................................................................................ 7-7

Location of Module Manufacturing Plant ....................................................................7-7

REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT AND EHS STANDARDS.......................................7-7

REAL ESTATE REQUIREMENTS ............................................................................. 7-8

PV Power Plant Requirements—Utility Ground Mounted Scale ................................ 7-8

PV Power Plant Requirements—Industrial Roof Mounted Scale............................... 7-12

PROCESS TECHNOLOGY SELECTION .................................................................. 7-13

Design Philosophy...................................................................................................... 7-14

Design Priorities .........................................................................................................7-15

Process Safety............................................................................................................7-15

Reliability ....................................................................................................................7-15

Environmental Conformance...................................................................................... 7-16

Hazardous Waste Incineration ................................................................................... 7-17

Flexibility for Economic Optimization..........................................................................7-17

Ease of Operations & Maintenance............................................................................7-17

Buildings ..................................................................................................................... 7-18


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Security and Vulnerability Analysis ............................................................................ 7-18

LOCATION FOR CAPITAL COST ESTIMATING ......................................................7-19

CONSTRUCTION METHODOLOGY......................................................................... 7-21

OFFSITE FACILITIES ................................................................................................ 7-21

Black Start Capability ................................................................................................. 7-23

PROCESS CONTROL PHILOSOPHY....................................................................... 7-23

Provide Machine Condition Monitoring Instrumentation............................................. 7-23

ENGINEERING AND DESIGN STANDARDS............................................................7-24

PV Cell and Module Product Standards.....................................................................7-27

SITE SPECIFIC DESIGN CONDITIONS ................................................................... 7-28

CAPITAL AND OPERATING COST BASES.............................................................. 7-28

Capital Investment...................................................................................................... 7-28

Construction Capital Cost Index.................................................................................7-30

Project Construction Timing ....................................................................................... 7-33

Available Utilities......................................................................................................... 7-33

Production Cost Factors ............................................................................................. 7-33

Feedstock, Product and Energy Pricing .....................................................................7-34

Rating Level on Production Costs .............................................................................. 7-34

PLANT LAYOUT.........................................................................................................7-35

ECONOMIC BENCHMARKS ..................................................................................... 7-36

Historical Installed PV Costs ...................................................................................... 7-36

Itemized PV Costs ......................................................................................................7-37

Inverter Prices in Germany.........................................................................................7-39

Module Prices in Germany ......................................................................................... 7-40

8 SILICON BASED PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL SYSTEMS............................................. 8-1



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Plant Location.............................................................................................................8-1

PROCESS TECHNOLOGY SELECTION .................................................................. 8-2

Market Share of PV Cell Technologies ......................................................................8-2

Key Elements of High-Efficiency Monocrystalline Silicon PV Cells ........................... 8-2

SunPower Corporation as Representative Monocrystalline Silicon PV Cell Producer ........................................................................................................8-3

Architecture of SunPower Generation-2 A-300 PV Cell............................................. 8-5

Levelized Cost of Electricity........................................................................................ 8-7

Chemistry of SunPower PV Cells ............................................................................... 8-8

SunPower High Conversion Efficiency PV Cells........................................................8-9

SunPower Financial History ....................................................................................... 8-9

SCOPE OF DESIGN EFFORT................................................................................... 8-11

Manufacture of Cells and Modules in Integrated Plant .............................................. 8-11

Use of PV Cells in Large Scale Power Plant..............................................................8-11

Choice of Starting Material—Silicon or Wafers? ........................................................ 8-12

SunPower’s Starting Material .....................................................................................8-13

Production Design Capacity ....................................................................................... 8-14

SunPower PV Cell Design Features and Benefits ..................................................... 8-14

SunPower PV Cell Architecture..................................................................................8-17

Back Scattering Reflection ......................................................................................... 8-20

Commercial Warranty................................................................................................. 8-21

PV CELL PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS...................................................................8-21

PV MODULE PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS ............................................................8-22

Representative SPWR Module Dimensions...............................................................8-24

PRODUCT PACKAGING TO SHIP STANDARDS .................................................... 8-28

GENERIC MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON PV CELL DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING .................................................................................................... 8-29

PV Furnace Processing Operations ...........................................................................8-32


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Metallization Drying and Firing ...................................................................................8-32

Rapid Thermal Annealing ........................................................................................... 8-34

Encapsulating PV Cells via Lamination......................................................................8-34

Inspection, Testing and Measuring (ITM)...................................................................8-35

SRIC’S UNDERSTANDING OF SUNPOWER’S MONOCRYSTALLINE SILICON PV CELL DESIGN AND MANUFACTURING.............................................8-36

SunPower Performance Claims ................................................................................. 8-38

Capturing Photons from a Broad Range of Sunlight Wavelengths ............................ 8-39

Basic Backside Contact Architecture of SunPower PV Cells..................................... 8-40

Early SunPower PV Cell Patents................................................................................ 8-41

Basis of Current SunPower PV Cell Manufacturing ................................................... 8-48

SunPower’s Organo Metallic Conductive Polymer Contacts ..................................... 8-52

Sources of Inefficiency in SunPower PV Cell............................................................. 8-58

INSPECTION, TEST AND MEASUREMENT (ITM)...................................................8-59

Quality Control Routine Tests Conducted During Manufacturing Process ................ 8-60

GENERIC PV MODULE MANUFACTURING ............................................................8-64

Manufacturing Cost Benchmarking ............................................................................8-64

Module Components ..................................................................................................8-65

Stringing Cells Together ............................................................................................. 8-66

Module Testing Requirements ................................................................................... 8-67

Module Manufacturing Plant....................................................................................... 8-68

Wafer and Cell Transfer Machines.............................................................................8-69

SunPower Cell String Optimization ............................................................................8-72

SUNPOWER MANUFACTURING PLANT CONSIDERATIONS ............................... 8-73

Manufacturing Economics—SunPower Experience...................................................8-77

SUNPOWER EXPERIENCE WITH UTILITY SCALE INSTALLED PV SYSTEMS............................................................................................................. 8-78

SunPower Experience with PV Module Surface Polarization .................................... 8-78


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Periodic Washing Capability....................................................................................... 8-78

Tracking Devices ........................................................................................................8-79

SunPower Built Utility Scale Power Plants................................................................. 8-79

Module Layout in Power Plant....................................................................................8-80

MANUFACTURING COST—INTEGRATED PV CELL AND MODULE PLANT ........ 8-83

FOB Process Equipment Capital Costs ..................................................................... 8-83

Total Capital Cost Estimate ........................................................................................ 8-86

Plant Unit Manufacturing Cost Estimate Basis........................................................... 8-88

Module Unit Variable Manufacturing Cost Estimate................................................... 8-88

Total Unit Manufacturing Cost Estimate.....................................................................8-89

MANUFACTURING COST—CRYSTALLINE SILICON PV POWER PLANT............ 8-91

Crystalline Silicon PV Power Plant Capital Cost ........................................................ 8-91

Crystalline Silicon PV Power Plant Operating Cost ................................................... 8-92

9 CDTE THIN FILM BASED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS ......................................... 9-1


Why Thin-Film?...........................................................................................................9-1

Reported Manufacturing Costs................................................................................... 9-2

Potential Benefits of Thin-Film PV.............................................................................. 9-2

Potential Liabilities of Thin-Film PV............................................................................ 9-3

Participating Thin-Film Producers .............................................................................. 9-4

Why First Solar? .........................................................................................................9-4

Utility Scale PV Plants ................................................................................................ 9-7

THIN-FILM TECHNOLOGY BASICS ......................................................................... 9-8

Technology Differences between Thin-Film and Crystalline Silicon .......................... 9-12

SRIC’S UNDERSTANDING OF FIRST SOLAR’S CELL ARCHITECTURE.............. 9-13

Module Architecture.................................................................................................... 9-13

High-Rate Vapor Transport Deposition Benefits ........................................................ 9-14


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High Rate Vapor Transport Deposition Technology................................................... 9-14

High Rate CdTe Deposition Research at the University of Delaware........................9-15

First Solar Key Patent Position...................................................................................9-17

First Solar Foundation Patent Position.......................................................................9-21

First Solar Design Enhancements.............................................................................. 9-21

Overview of First Solar Manufacturing Procedure ..................................................... 9-22

First Solar Thin-Film Deposition ................................................................................. 9-23

FIRST SOLAR MANUFACTURING ........................................................................... 9-29

Manufacturing Plants.................................................................................................. 9-29

First Solar Manufacturing History ............................................................................... 9-29

First Solar Manufacturing Modules.............................................................................9-30

PROPOSED PROCESS DESIGN.............................................................................. 9-31

Module Line Layout ....................................................................................................9-31

Process Sequence and Tools .................................................................................... 9-32

CDTE MODULE MANUFACTURING ECONOMICS ................................................. 9-34

Basis for Manufacturing Plant Costs ..........................................................................9-34

Manufacturing Plant Costs ......................................................................................... 9-34

Manufacturing Plant Total Fixed Capital Cost ............................................................ 9-36

Unit Manufacturing Cost ............................................................................................. 9-38

CDTE POWER PLANT ECONOMICS ....................................................................... 9-41

10 CONCENTRATED PHOTOVOLTAIC CELL SYSTEMS........................................... 10-1

VALUE PROPOSITION.............................................................................................. 10-1


INDUSTRY STATUS 2010 ......................................................................................... 10-2

Product Standards......................................................................................................10-3

PRINCIPLES OF OPERATION.................................................................................. 10-4

Types of Configuration ............................................................................................... 10-4


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Levels of Concentration.............................................................................................. 10-5

The Lens Approach ....................................................................................................10-7

The Parabolic Mirror Approach .................................................................................. 10-7

The Waveguide Approach.......................................................................................... 10-8

The Design of the PV Cell .......................................................................................... 10-8

PROCESS DESIGN BASIS........................................................................................ 10-8

MANUFACTURING ECONOMICS............................................................................. 10-10

11 OTHER PHOTOVOLTAIC TECHNOLOGIES ........................................................... 11-1

DYE SENSITIZED SOLAR CELLS (DSC) ................................................................. 11-1

ORGANIC PV DEVICES ............................................................................................ 11-2

VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY SOLAR CELLS................................................................11-2

FILM-BASED PV SHEET CELL ................................................................................. 11-3

12 RECENT TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................... 12-1

MANAGING PV THERMAL ENERGY (HYBRID PV SYSTEMS) .............................. 12-1

EU PROGRAM FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC RESEARCH PRIORITIES .......................... 12-1

UPGRADED METALLURGICAL GRADE SILICON...................................................12-2

IMPROVED GLASS ................................................................................................... 12-3

SILICON SUBSTITUTES ........................................................................................... 12-3

WAFER SLICING IMPROVEMENTS.........................................................................12-3

INCORPORATING OPTIMIZER ON INDIVIDUAL MODULE .................................... 12-5

QUANTUM DOTS ......................................................................................................12-5

KEEPING SOLAR PANELS CLEAN .......................................................................... 12-5

IMPROVED WET FILM DEPOSITION.......................................................................12-5

APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY ...............................................................................................A-1

APPENDIX B: PATENT SUMMARY TABLES..................................................................B-1

CONTENTS (Concluded)

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APPENDIX C: DESIGN AND COST BASES ....................................................................C-1

APPENDIX D: CITED REFERENCES...............................................................................D-1

FIGURES

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1.1 Basic Photovoltaic Cell .......................................................................................... 1-1

1.2 Connecting the PV System to the Power Grid ...................................................... 1-2

1.3 Electron Source and Sink on a Solar Wafer.......................................................... 1-2

1.4 Incident Sunlight on the USA ................................................................................ 1-3

1.5 Historical Cost of PV Generation Systems............................................................ 1-4

1.6 Economically Attractive PV Markets...................................................................... 1-5

1.7 Photovoltaic Product Chain ................................................................................... 1-7

1.8 Hemlock’s Polysilicon Product Chain....................................................................1-8

1.9 Demand for PV Systems by Technology...............................................................1-10

1.10 PV Market Share for Crystalline and Thin Films in the United States................... 1-11

1.11 PV Technology Conversion Efficiencies ............................................................... 1-12

1.12 SRIC Forecast Market Share for PV Technologies............................................... 1-13

1.13 U.S. Shipments of PV Systems 1999–2008.......................................................... 1-15

1.14 Number of U.S. Firms Selling PV Systems ........................................................... 1-16

3.1 Electricity Production Cost by Technology............................................................ 3-2

3.2 MIT’s Incremental Cost of Carbon Capture........................................................... 3-4

3.3 Installed Capital Cost of California PV Systems ................................................... 3-7

3.4 PV Group’s Estimate of Installed PV Capacity...................................................... 3-10

3.5 Regions Where PV Grid is Likely to be Achieved ................................................. 3-13

3.6 Average U.S. Residential Power Prices................................................................3-14

3.7 Historical Cost of Photovoltaic Power ................................................................... 3-15

3.8 EPIA Forecast of PV Cost Parity...........................................................................3-16

3.9 2008 Installed U.S. PV Power by State................................................................. 3-17

3.10 2008 Installed Global PV Power............................................................................ 3-18

3.11 U.S. Solar Intensity as Function of Geography ..................................................... 3-19

3.12 Hemlock’s Polysilicon Integrated Product Chain................................................... 3-21

3.13 Wafer Economic Improvements from Conversion Efficiency and Capital Cost Efficiency........................................................................................... 3-21

FIGURES (Continued)

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3.14 Nitol Solar Expectation of Average Wafer Thickness............................................ 3-24

3.15 Kerf Associated with Saw Blade Design ...............................................................3-24

3.16 Function of Dow Chemical’s Solar Shingles ......................................................... 3-26

3.17 False PV Advertising Claims ................................................................................. 3-29

3.18 Production Cost of Electricity Generating Technologies....................................... 3-31

3.19 Residential PV Capacity Utilization Experience at PG&E..................................... 3-33

3.20 PV Group Assessment of Power Source Labor Intensity ..................................... 3-36

3.21 Willingness of PV Stakeholders to Collaborate..................................................... 3-41

3.22 Estelux Estimate of PV Technology Market Share ............................................... 3-45

3.23 Nitol Solar’s Forecast of PV Technology Capacity................................................ 3-46

3.24 GTM Research PV Business Model Components ................................................ 3-47

4.1 Silicon Integrated Product Chain........................................................................... 4-2

4.2 PV System Life Cycle ............................................................................................ 4-3

4.3 2007 PV Technology Market Shares.....................................................................4-7

4.4 PV Thin-Film Market Shares ................................................................................. 4-7

4.5 Greentech Media Estimate of Thin-Film Market Share ......................................... 4-9

4.6 Displaybank Estimate of Thin-Film Market Share ................................................. 4-10

4.7 Forecast Thin-Film Production Capacity ............................................................... 4-11

4.8 GTM Research Estimate of Technology Market Share ........................................ 4-12

4.9 iSuppli Estimate of Technology Market Share ...................................................... 4-13

4.10 GTM Research Estimate of Technology Production Costs................................... 4-14

4.11 Cost Components of Silicon Based PV Modules .................................................. 4-15

4.12 GTM Research Forecast of 2012 Regional Thin-Film Production Capacity ......... 4-16

4.13 GTM Research Forecast of 2012 Thin-Film Production Capacity ........................ 4-17

4.14 Off-Grid Market Share as % of Total Installed Capacity ....................................... 4-20

4.15 2009 Segmentation of Off-Grid PV Capacity ........................................................ 4-21

4.16 Historical Demand Growth for Off-Grid PV Power ................................................ 4-21

4.17 Power Generation Technology Unit Contribution to CO2 Emissions .................... 4-23

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xix PEP Report 276

4.18 IPCC Forecast of Energy Consumption by Source............................................... 4-24

4.19 World Marketed Energy Consumption .................................................................. 4-25

4.20 World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type ........................................................... 4-26

4.21 World Liquids Production ......................................................................................4-27

4.22 World Net Electricity Generation by Fuel Type ..................................................... 4-28

4.23 World Renewable Electricity Generation by Energy Source, Excluding Wind and Hydropower .................................................................................................... 4-28

4.24 Global Recession Impact on Industrial Production ............................................... 4-32

4.25 IMF Historic and Forecast GDP Growth................................................................ 4-34

4.26 IMF Data Showing Industrial Sector Reversals..................................................... 4-35

4.27 IMF Commodity Price Data ................................................................................... 4-36

4.28 IMF Inflation Rate Data.......................................................................................... 4-36

4.29 IMF Government Balance Sheets .........................................................................4-37

4.30 Early Commercial Global Demand for PV Systems .............................................. 4-39

4.31 Early Improvements in PV Capital Cost Efficiency................................................ 4-39

4.32 Global PV Demand Growth between 1980–2000 ................................................. 4-41

4.33 Historical Crude Oil Prices ....................................................................................4-42

4.34 Global PV Demand Growth between 2000–2007 ................................................. 4-43

4.35 Segmented 2008 Demand for PV Systems .......................................................... 4-44

4.36 Geographical 2008 Demand for PV Systems .......................................................4-45

4.37 Geographical 2008 Demand for PV Systems .......................................................4-46

4.38 Chemical Week Magazine Estimate of 2008 PV Sales......................................... 4-47

4.39 PV-Tech’s Forecast of Industry Capital Investment .............................................. 4-48

4.40 iSuppli Global PV Demand Forecast Before and After Reduction in Spanish Subsidies ................................................................................................. 4-49

4.41 iSupply Forecast of Photovoltaic Demand Growth................................................ 4-50

4.42 GTM’s Forecast of Photovoltaic Demand Growth................................................. 4-52

4.43 2008 Global PV Demand....................................................................................... 4-54

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xx PEP Report 276

4.44 2009 Global PV Demand....................................................................................... 4-54

4.45 2009 Global PV Demand....................................................................................... 4-55

4.46 iSuppli Forecast of 2010–2013 PV Demand .........................................................4-57

4.47 IMS Research PV Forecast Post 2010..................................................................4-60

4.48 IMS Research PV Forecast Post 2010..................................................................4-61

4.49 SolarBuzz Forecast 2014 U.S. PV Demand .........................................................4-62

4.50 Historical Demand Growth of German PV Market ................................................ 4-63

4.51 2009 Distribution of European PV Demand ..........................................................4-64

4.52 2009 Top 10 U.S. PV Producing Utility Companies .............................................. 4-69

4.53 2009 Segmentation of U.S. PV Demand by State ................................................ 4-70

4.54 Solar Projects in the California Desert .................................................................. 4-71

4.55 Distribution of China PV Demand..........................................................................4-73

4.56 Historic PV Demand in China................................................................................ 4-74

4.57 PV Industry Clusters in China ...............................................................................4-75

4.58 2010 PV Price Trends in Japan.............................................................................4-76

4.59 SRIC Segmentation of Regional Photovoltaic Capacity........................................ 4-77

4.60 Historical Global Demand for PV Systems............................................................ 4-78

4.61 GTM Forecast for PV Industry Capacity................................................................ 4-79

4.62 EPIA Forecast of Photovoltaic Capacity Growth................................................... 4-80

4.63 EPIA Forecast of Photovoltaic Product Chain Components ................................. 4-81

4.64 EPIA Forecast Distribution of PV Capacity In 2020 .............................................. 4-82

4.65 Navigant’s 2009 Estimate of PV Module Capacity................................................ 4-84

4.66 PV-Tech’s Forecast of Industry Capital Investment .............................................. 4-85

4.67 2008 Production of Photovoltaic Competitors ....................................................... 4-87

4.68 Installed 2008 Capacity of Photovoltaic Competitors............................................ 4-88

4.69 2007 Distribution of Solar Cell Manufacturing Capacity........................................ 4-90

4.70 2007–2009 Quarterly Revenues of Sharp and First Solar .................................... 4-92

4.71 IMS Estimate of 2010 PV Module Market Shares................................................. 4-93

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxi PEP Report 276

4.72 Q-Cell’s Assessment of Photovoltaic Competitor Integration ............................... 4-97

4.73 Siemens Concept of Reference Utility Scale PV Power Plant ..............................4-99

4.74 Historic PV Panel Prices........................................................................................4-100

4.75 Historic PV Panel Prices........................................................................................4-101

4.76 Historic Japan PV Module Prices ..........................................................................4-102

4.77 Comparison of PV Cell And Module Prices...........................................................4-103

4.78 First Solar Estimate of Its Own PV Costs.............................................................. 4-104

4.79 Trina Solar Estimate of Its Own PV Costs............................................................. 4-105

4.80 Historic PV Component Prices ..............................................................................4-106

4.81 Forecast Unit Module and ‘BOS’ Costs.................................................................4-107

4.82 IMS Forecast of PV Module Prices .......................................................................4-108

5.1 Emission of Electrons ............................................................................................ 5-1

5.2 Impact of Sunlight Emitting Electrons....................................................................5-2

5.3 Frequency Impact of Incident Radiation................................................................ 5-3

5.4 Planck’s Frequency Observation........................................................................... 5-4

5.5 Einstein’s Concept of the Photoelectric Effect ...................................................... 5-5

5.6 Visible Light Range................................................................................................ 5-6

5.7 The Electromagnetic Wave ................................................................................... 5-7

5.8 Wave Functions..................................................................................................... 5-7

5.9 Nikola Tesla’s PV Cell Apparatus..........................................................................5-9

5.10 Bell Labs Solar Cell Patent (USP 2780765).......................................................... 5-10

5.11 Conventional Solid State Semiconductor .............................................................. 5-11

5.12 Modern PV Cell Operation .................................................................................... 5-12

5.13 Front Side Electrode Design .................................................................................5-13

5.14 Multi-Junction Design ............................................................................................ 5-15

5.15 Sanyo Design Reversing N/P Layer Orientation ................................................... 5-16

5.16 Sanyo Design Incorporating Thin-Film Layers ...................................................... 5-17

5.17 Sanyo’s Claimed Performance Improvement........................................................ 5-18

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxii PEP Report 276

5.18 Current-Voltage Response of Solar Cell ...............................................................5-19

5.19 Current-Voltage Response of Solar Cell ...............................................................5-19

6.1 Steps in PV System Manufacturing.......................................................................6-1

6.2 Essential Elements of Household Grid Connected System .................................. 6-2

6.3 Conventional Ground Mounded Tracking System ................................................6-10

6.4 Design Configuation of Tracking System ..............................................................6-11

6.5 Scale of a Tracking System...................................................................................6-11

6.6 Power Production from Tracking PV Systems ...................................................... 6-12

6.7 PV Wiring Configuration for Off-Grid Power.......................................................... 6-13

6.8 Dual Master Switches............................................................................................6-14

6.9 Segmented PV Installed Costs.............................................................................. 6-14

6.10 Cost Allocation—Crystalline vs. Thin Film............................................................. 6-15

7.1 Project Scope of Work........................................................................................... 7-2

7.2 Transformer Use for Transmission Lines ..............................................................7-5

7.3 U.S. Solar Insolation Map...................................................................................... 7-9

7.4 German Solar Insolation Map................................................................................ 7-10

7.5 Bavarian SolarPark Location of BOS Components............................................... 7-13

7.6 U.S. PEP Cost Index ............................................................................................. 7-31

7.7 California Roof Top PV Installed Capital Costs..................................................... 7-36

7.8 Segmented California Roof Top PV Installed Capital Costs ................................. 7-37

8.1 SunPower PV Cell Production Capacity History ................................................... 8-4

8.2 Module Cost Reduction Due to Increased Efficiency............................................ 8-7

8.3 Silicon Integrated Product Chain........................................................................... 8-13

8.4 Relationship between Wafer Thickness and Cell Efficiency ................................. 8-15

8.5 SunPower Reduction in Silicon Consumption....................................................... 8-15

8.6 SunPower Silicon Consumption as Function of Wafer Thickness and Cell Efficiency ........................................................................................................8-16

8.7 SunPower PV Cell Architecture.............................................................................8-17

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxiii PEP Report 276

8.8 Contact Holes in Back Side Passivation Layer ..................................................... 8-19

8.9 Comparison of PV Cell Architectures ....................................................................8-19

8.10 Back Scattering Photon Reflection........................................................................8-20

8.11 SunPower’s Back Scattering Design.....................................................................8-21

8.12 SunPower PV Module Dimensions .......................................................................8-25

8.13 SunPower Typical PV Module Data Sheet............................................................8-26

8.14 SunPower Typical Current/Voltage Module Curve................................................ 8-28

8.15 Wafer Preparation Processing ..............................................................................8-30

8.16 Wafer Feature Incorporation Processing .............................................................. 8-31

8.17 Electrical Contact Dryer Temperature Profile........................................................ 8-33

8.18 Electrical Contact Firing Furnace ..........................................................................8-33

8.19 SunPower Wavelength Capture Efficiency ........................................................... 8-39

8.20 Comparison of PV Cell Architectures ....................................................................8-40

8.21 Back Contact Architecture of SunPower Cells ...................................................... 8-41

8.22 Back Contact Architecture of SunPower Cells ...................................................... 8-41

8.23 Manufactured PV Cell Back Side (USP 5053083) ................................................ 8-43

8.24 Semiconductor Etching Methods...........................................................................8-45

8.25 Alternating Back Side Contacts (Interdigitized)..................................................... 8-46

8.26 Passivation Layers on Front and Rear Cell Surfaces ........................................... 8-47

8.27 Structure of SunPower Cell (USP 6423568) ......................................................... 8-50

8.28 SunPower Cell Manufacturing Sequence (USP 6423568) ................................... 8-51

8.29 SunPower Generalized Cell and Module Manufacturing Sequence..................... 8-52

8.30 SunPower Cell Architecture Using Organo Metallic Conducting Polymer Contacts................................................................................................................. 8-54

8.31 Anisotropic versus Isotropic Surface Etching........................................................ 8-55

8.32 SunPower Generalized Cell and Module Manufacturing Sequence..................... 8-56

8.33 Source of Inefficiency in SunPower A-300 PV Cells ............................................. 8-59

8.34 PV Cell as an Electric Current Generation Device................................................8-61

FIGURES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxiv PEP Report 276

8.35 SunPower Segmentation of PV Costs................................................................... 8-64

8.36 Essential Elements of PV Module .........................................................................8-65

8.37 Conventional Module Components ....................................................................... 8-66

8.38 Power and Voltage Relationship of PV Cell ..........................................................8-67

8.39 IEC Module Performance Standards Testing........................................................ 8-68

8.40 Module Manufacturing Steps.................................................................................8-69

8.41 SunPower Module Plant Layout ............................................................................8-71

8.42 SunPower Module String Design ..........................................................................8-72

8.43 SunPower Module Busbar Design ........................................................................8-73

8.44 Layout of SunPower Malaysia Complex................................................................ 8-76

8.45 Artist Rendering of SunPower Malaysia Plant ...................................................... 8-77

8.46 Benefit of Module Tracking System.......................................................................8-79

8.47 SunPower Module Array Layout Plan ...................................................................8-81

8.48 Generic Rooftop Commercial Scale Module Array Layout Plan ........................... 8-82

9.1 Comparison of Cell Technologies .........................................................................9-2

9.2 First Solar’s Unit Manufacturing Cost History ....................................................... 9-7

9.3 Thin-Film Architecture of P and N Electrode Contacts.......................................... 9-9

9.4 Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film Architecture ............................................................9-9

9.5 CdTe and CIGS Thin-Film Architecture.................................................................9-10

9.6 Thin-Film Architecture with Enhanced Coatings ................................................... 9-11

9.7 Thin-Film Light Trapping Effect .............................................................................9-12

9.8 SRIC’s Understanding of First Solar Architecture ................................................. 9-13

9.9 Improved CdTe Thin-Film Surface Deposition with Vapor Transport Distributor..9-15

9.10 University of Delaware High Rate Thin-Film CdTe Deposition ............................. 9-16

9.11 Design of CdTe Coating System...........................................................................9-18

9.12 Design of CdTe Rapid Deposition Apparatus ....................................................... 9-19

9.13 Plan View of CdTe Rapid Deposition Apparatus................................................... 9-20

9.14 First Solar Basic Manufacturing Sequence ...........................................................9-23

FIGURES (Concluded)

© SRI Consulting xxv PEP Report 276

9.15 First Solar Thin-Film Deposition Sequence........................................................... 9-25

9.16 First Solar Thin-Film Cell Definition Sequence ..................................................... 9-27

9.17 First Solar Module ITM Sequence......................................................................... 9-28

9.18 First Solar Module Dimensions .............................................................................9-30

9.19 Oerlikon ‘Thinfab’ Thin-Film Plant Layout ............................................................. 9-32

10.1 Parabolic Mirror Concentrated Photovoltaics........................................................ 10-1

10.2 Flat Mirror Concentrator ........................................................................................ 10-4

10.3 Fresnel Lens Concentrator.................................................................................... 10-5

10.4 Parabolic Mirror Concentrator ............................................................................... 10-5

10.5 Efficiency versus Sunlight Concentration.............................................................. 10-6

10.6 Boeing Spectrolab CPV Unit ................................................................................. 10-7

10.7 Sunflower Module Dimensions..............................................................................10-9

10.8 Sunflower Frame Set Dimensions.........................................................................10-10

11.1 Grätzel Cell Architecture .......................................................................................11-1

11.2 Grätzel Cell Sensitized Dye Structure ...................................................................11-2

11.3 Bloo Solar ‘Nano Brush’ ........................................................................................ 11-3

11.4 Sheet Based PV Cell ............................................................................................. 11-4

12.1 Bragg Effect ........................................................................................................... 12-4

12.2 Proton Beam Accelerator ...................................................................................... 12-4

TABLES

© SRI Consulting xxvi PEP Report 276

1.1 Market Share for Silicon Products.........................................................................1-8

1.2 Value of Products Made from Silicon ....................................................................1-9

1.3 Forms of Silicon Based Solar Wafers....................................................................1-9

1.4 Efficiency of U.S. Based PV Production Systems................................................. 1-12

1.5 Segmentation by Type of U.S. PV Production ...................................................... 1-14

1.6 U.S. Shipments of PV Systems 1999–2008.......................................................... 1-15

1.7 Origin of U.S. Imported PV Systems .....................................................................1-17

1.8 Estimated Regional PV Capacity for 2010 ............................................................1-18

1.9 Estimated Regional PV Capacity of Specific Producers for 2010.........................1-18

1.10 Major Public Photovoltaic Companies Listed on U.S. Stock Exchanges.............. 1-19

1.11 Major German (DAX) Listed Public Companies in Photovoltaic Business ........... 1-20

3.1 Electricity Production Cost by Technology............................................................ 3-3

3.2 MIT’s Incremental Carbon Capture Cost Build-up ................................................ 3-5

3.3 U.S. National Academies Electricity Cost with Carbon Tax .................................. 3-6

3.4 Photovoltaic Industry Associations Promulgating Standards................................ 3-40

3.5 Barriers to PV Business Development ..................................................................3-40

3.6 Hazardous Chemicals Used in PV Production Chain ........................................... 3-44

3.7 U.S. DOE PV Cell and Module Shipments by Type.............................................. 3-45

3.8 PV Technology Comparison..................................................................................3-48

4.1 Representative Commercial PV Modules .............................................................4-4

4.2 Japanese Commercial PV Modules ......................................................................4-5

4.3 Displaybank Estimate of Thin-Film Market Share ................................................. 4-10

4.4 Representative Off-Grid Commercial PV Applications.......................................... 4-18

4.5 Off-Grid PV Power Versus On-Grid PV Power ..................................................... 4-19

4.6 Global Recession Impact on Industrial Production ............................................... 4-33

4.7 IMF Historic and Projected GDP Growth ..............................................................4-37

4.8 Photovoltaic Industry Global Capacity...................................................................4-47

4.9 Photovoltaic Industry Targets of Chinese Government......................................... 4-49

TABLES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxvii PEP Report 276

4.10 China Ordos Photovoltaic Project .........................................................................4-50

4.11 Estimates of 2009 Global PV Demand..................................................................4-51

4.12 Regional Change in PV Demand ..........................................................................4-53

4.13 2009 European Demand for PV ............................................................................ 4-55

4.14 Gartner Assessment of 2010 Capacity ................................................................. 4-61

4.15 German Photovoltaic Industry Overview (as of 2008)........................................... 4-65

4.16 Large Scale Spanish PV Installations (as of 2008) ............................................... 4-66

4.17 U.S. PV Demand ................................................................................................... 4-67

4.18 U.S. PV Manufacturing by Type ............................................................................4-68

4.19 SRIC Segmentation of Regional Photovoltaic Capacity........................................ 4-77

4.20 Photovoltaic Industry Global Capacity...................................................................4-79

4.21 EPIA Forecast of 2020 Photovoltaic Installed Capacity ........................................ 4-81

4.22 OECD Member Countries ..................................................................................... 4-83

4.23 Navigant’s 2009 Estimate of PV Module Capacity................................................ 4-84

4.24 Frost & Sullivan Listing of Major Photovoltaic Competitors................................... 4-86

4.25 Capacity Announcements of Major Photovoltaic Competitors .............................. 4-88

4.26 Major Photovoltaic Cell Cost Components............................................................ 4-89

4.27 Dominant Photovoltaic Competitors ......................................................................4-90

4.28 Top 10 Photovoltaic Competitor Rankings............................................................ 4-91

4.29 IMS Top-10 Photovoltaic Module Competitors...................................................... 4-92

4.30 IMS Top-10 Photovoltaic Panel Producers ........................................................... 4-94

4.31 First Solar’s PV Capacity Expansion Record ........................................................ 4-94

4.32 2010 Regional Distribution of PV Module Capacity .............................................. 4-95

4.33 Major Photovoltaic Toolmakers .............................................................................4-96

4.34 Wall Street Recommended PV Stocks..................................................................4-98

4.35 Year End 2008 Module Pricing in Europe .............................................................4-103

5.1 Wavelength Source ............................................................................................... 5-4

5.2 U.S. DOE Energy Efficiency Survey......................................................................5-20

TABLES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxviii PEP Report 276

5.3 EPIA Energy Efficiency Assessment.....................................................................5-20

6.1 Representative Inverter Manufacturers.................................................................6-4

6.2 NEMA Standards for Inverter Enclosure ............................................................... 6-6

6.3 Representative Current Inverter Prices................................................................. 6-8

6.4 Representative Current Inverter Prices................................................................. 6-15

6.5 Estimated Utility Scale Balance of System Costs ................................................. 6-16

7.1 2010 Largest Operating Capacity PV Power Plant ............................................... 7-4

7.2 SunPower’s Commercial Monocrystalline Modules .............................................. 7-6

7.3 First Solar’s Thin-Film CdTe Modules ...................................................................7-6

7.4 Construction Cost Location Factors ......................................................................7-7

7.5 Abengoa Estimate of Utility PV Land Requirements............................................. 7-11

7.6 Estimate of Utility PV Land Requirements ............................................................ 7-11

7.7 Land Required for Renewable Energy Technologies ........................................... 7-11

7.8 2008 Retail Power Costs....................................................................................... 7-20

7.9 Low Electricity Cost Regions.................................................................................7-21

7.10 Normal SRIC Offsite Cost Components ................................................................7-22

7.11 Relevant Standards Setting Organizations ...........................................................7-24

7.12 SEMI Standards Committees ................................................................................ 7-25

7.13 Relevant SEMI Polysilicon Grouping Standards ................................................... 7-25

7.14 SEMI Standards Setting Topics ............................................................................7-26

7.15 Published SEMI PV Standards.............................................................................. 7-27

7.16 Other SEMI Standards Applicable for PV Manufacturing...................................... 7-27

7.17 Temperature Design Considerations ....................................................................7-28

7.18 U.S. PEP Cost Index ............................................................................................. 7-32

7.19 Project Cost Factors .............................................................................................. 7-34

7.20 Capital Costs for 5 MW PV System.......................................................................7-38

7.21 Variable Costs for 5 MW PV System.....................................................................7-38

7.22 2010 PV Price Scenario ........................................................................................ 7-39

TABLES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxix PEP Report 276

7.23 German Average PV Inverter Prices .....................................................................7-40

7.24 German Average PV Module Prices .....................................................................7-40

8.1 Construction Cost Location Factors ......................................................................8-1

8.2 SEPA Asessment of PV Technology Market Share.............................................. 8-2

8.3 Wacker 2008 Asessment of PV Technology Market Share .................................. 8-2

8.4 Sources of PV Cell Conversion Inefficiencies ....................................................... 8-9

8.5 SunPower 3-Year Profit and Loss Statement ....................................................... 8-10

8.6 SunPower 3-Year Unit Revenue Price.................................................................. 8-11

8.7 SunPower Fill Factor Performance in 2007 .......................................................... 8-17

8.8 Characteristics of SunPower PV Cells ..................................................................8-21

8.9 SunPower Commercial Module Offerings .............................................................8-23

8.10 SunPower 330 Watt Commercial Module Characteristics .................................... 8-24

8.11 SunPower E19/318 Solar Panel Specifications .................................................... 8-27

8.12 SunPower E19/315 Solar Panel Mechanicalspecifications................................... 8-28

8.13 Bulk Module Packaging in ISO Shipping Containers ............................................ 8-29

8.14 Sierra Therm PV Processing Furnaces.................................................................8-32

8.15 Representative PV Module Encapsulants............................................................. 8-35

8.16 Relevant U.S. Patents for SunPower Analysis...................................................... 8-37

8.17 Fundamental PV Cell Tests................................................................................... 8-62

8.18 Routine SunPower Manufacturing Tests............................................................... 8-63

8.19 IEC Module Tests .................................................................................................. 8-68

8.20 SunPower Factory in Philippines (Fab-1 & Fab-2)................................................ 8-74

8.21 SunPower Factory in Philippines (Fab-3).............................................................. 8-75

8.22 SunPower Estimate of Labor Intensity of 1 GW Factory....................................... 8-78

8.23 SunPower Utility Scale PV Power Plants .............................................................. 8-80

8.24 SunPower’s Nellis AFB PV Power Plant ...............................................................8-80

8.25 SunPower’s Resource Estimate of 423 MW PV Plant .......................................... 8-82

8.26 PV Cell and Module Factory Capacity Basis.........................................................8-83

TABLES (Continued)

© SRI Consulting xxx PEP Report 276

8.27 PV Cell Plant Major Equipment Functions and FOB Purchase Cost .................... 8-84

8.28 PV Module Plant Major Equipment Functions and FOB Purchase Cost .............. 8-85

8.29 PV Module Packaging and Shipping Equipment Requirements ........................... 8-86

8.30 Crystalline Silicon Cell and Module Plant Total Capital Investment........................................................................................ 8-87

8.31 Manufacturing Cost Estimate Basis ......................................................................8-88

8.32 Module Variable Unit Manufacturing Cost Estimate.............................................. 8-89

8.33 Module Total Unit Manufacturing Cost Estimate................................................... 8-90

8.34 Crystalline Silicon Unit PV Power Plant Capital Cost............................................ 8-92

8.35 Crystalline Silicon PV Power Plant Capital Cost ................................................... 8-92

8.36 Crystalline Silicon PV Power Plant Operating Cost Basis .................................... 8-93

8.37 Crystalline Silicon PV Power Plant Operating Cost .............................................. 8-94

9.1 Typical Thin-Film Single Junction Efficencies ....................................................... 9-1

9.2 Thin-Film PV Producing Firms .............................................................................. 9-4

9.3 First Solar 5-Year Profit and Loss Statement........................................................ 9-5

9.4 First Solar Capital Asset Position ..........................................................................9-6

9.5 Utility Scale First Solar Power Plants ....................................................................9-8

9.6 Thin Film Deposition Methods...............................................................................9-12

9.7 Foundation Patents for CdTe Processing .............................................................9-17

9.8 Other Important First Solar U.S. Patents............................................................... 9-21

9.9 First Solar Manufacturing Plants 2010 ..................................................................9-29

9.10 First Solar Manufacturing History ..........................................................................9-29

9.11 First Solar Module Characteristics ........................................................................9-30

9.12 CdTe Manufacturing Unit Process Operations...................................................... 9-33

9.13 CdTe Manufacturing Cost Basis............................................................................9-34

9.14 CdTe Manufacturing Unit Fob Capital Costs......................................................... 9-35

9.15 CdTe Thin-Film Module Manufacturing Plant Total Capital Investment........................................................................................ 9-37

TABLES (Concluded)

© SRI Consulting xxxi PEP Report 276

9.16 O&M Manufacturing Cost Factors .........................................................................9-38

9.17 CdTe Variable Manufacturing Cost Factors .......................................................... 9-39

9.18 CdTe Total Manufacturing Cost Estimate ............................................................. 9-40

9.19 CdTe PV Power Plant Capital Cost Estimate........................................................ 9-41

9.20 CdTe PV Power Plant O&M Cost Basis ................................................................ 9-42

9.21 CdTe PV Power Plant Variable Manufacturing Cost............................................. 9-42

9.22 CdTe PV Power Plant Total Manufacturing Cost .................................................. 9-43

10.1 CPV Commercial Firms......................................................................................... 10-3

10.2 Levels of Sunlight Concentration...........................................................................10-6

10.3 5 MW CPV Power Plant Design Basis .................................................................. 10-10

10.4 CPV Power Plant Capital Cost Estimate ............................................................... 10-11

10.5 CPV Power Plant Manufacturing Cost Estimate ................................................... 10-12

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