Comprehensive Land Use/Land Cover Data, Analysis, and Predictive Modeling:

A Partnership Approachfor Michigan

Soji AdelajaHannah Distinguished Professor in Land Policy

Land Policy ProgramMichigan State University

Current Context for Data, Analysis, and Predictive Modeling

• Last statewide, planning-scale land use/land cover data inventory dates to 1978 (MIRIS).

• Lack of current data impedes the ability to assess current patterns, predict trends, and effectively plan for future land use demands in:– Urban revitalization.– Conversion of agricultural lands to other uses.– Land-based industries.– Wetland and other habitat preservation.– Rural residential development.– Economic development.

Michigan Land Use Leadership Council

• Established by Governor Granholm in 2003:– Identify trends, causes and consequences of unmanaged growth

and development.– Make recommendations for the improvement of land use policy.

• Principal recommendations include:– Update of Land Use/Land Cover data.– Support research, development, and training at state universities

to develop and deploy new technologies for monitoring and analyzing environmental conditions.

– Monitor and report land use/land cover change, by county.

Leadership and Capacity of MSU’s Land Policy ProgramResearch Centers and Institutes• Remote Sensing and GIS Research and Outreach

Services (RS&GIS)• Institute for Water Resources (IWR)• Michigan Natural Features Inventory (MNFI)• Victor Institute• Center for Research on Underground Infrastructure

(CURIE)• Center for Global Change and Earth Observations

(CGCEO)

Leadership and Capacity of MSU’s Land Policy Program - ContinuedDepartments

• Geography

• Agricultural Economics

• CARRS

• Urban Planning

• Landscape Architecture

• Construction Management

Leadership and Capacity of MSU’s Land Policy Program - ContinuedMSU Extension – Delivery to Communities

• Land Use AOE Team

• Economic Development AOE Team

MSU Partnership Opportunity

• State Agencies– Department of Agriculture– Department of Community Health– Department of Environmental

Quality– Department of Information

Technology– Department of Natural

Resources– Department of Transportation– State Police– Department of History, Arts and

Libraries

• Federal Agencies– US Department of Agriculture

• Farm Service Agency• Natural Resources Conservation

Service

– Army Corps of Engineers– Environmental Protection Agency– US Forest Service– US Fisheries and Wildlife– US Geologic Survey

• Other Organizations– Great Lakes Commission– Ducks Unlimited– Michigan Farmland and

Community Trust

We can design the next aerial imagery flyover to position Michigan for fundamental land use innovation through current information and data

LPP and RS&GIS Foundation Activities

• National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) Aerial Imagery Partnership Meeting:– USDA Farm Service Agency.– Establish Michigan’s role in the 2005 Aerial Photography flight.– Identify partners.– Plan for comprehensive initiative.

• Land Use/Land Cover Modeling workshop:– Provide a forum for sharing current modeling efforts in Michigan.– Identify gaps in current modeling efforts.– Facilitate collaboration between the modeling communities.

• Handbook for Land Use/Land Cover data update methodology:– Develop standards for imagery sources, classification schemes, and

polygon digitization for land use/land cover data updating.– Define protocols with respect to 1978 MIRIS land use/land cover data.

Initiative Goal:

Development of an integrated set of decision support tools including comprehensive data, spatial analysis, and predictive models to help communities.

A Framework for Delivery

Aerial Imagery Acquisition

Land Use/Land CoverData Update & Analysis

Predictive State Model

CommunityDeliverables

DirectedResearch

Driven by community and policy needs

Designed to position partners for optimal impact on stakeholders

Designed to meet information needs of partners and state

Aerial Imagery Acquisition

• High resolution, statewide imagery:– National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP).– Digital imagery.– Ortho-rectified. – 1 meter resolution.– Color (CIR/Natural).– Non-exclusive rights.

Land Use/ Land Cover Data

• Planning-scale land use/land cover data update for the approximately 37 million acres of Michigan’s diverse landscape:– Michigan is the 3rd most agriculturally diverse state in the nation.– Michigan’s Upper and Lower Peninsulas are comprised of

abundant deciduous and coniferous forests.– Michigan’s glacial history provides a unique topography that offers

numerous water, wetland, and dune features.– Michigan’s core cities, suburban communities and rural residences

support the growing population.– Overlay of municipal, government, socio-economic, demographic,

fiscal, and other variables.

Land Use/Land Cover Data – A Methodology for Updating

• Correction of gross classification errors (1978 data).• Interpretation of current imagery to present land

classification.• Fieldwork to ensure interpretation accuracy.• Quality Assurance/Quality Control Protocol to certify

National Map Accuracy Standards.• Partner and vision driven protocols.

Imagery and Data - A Foundation for Deliverables

Lake

Single FamilyResidential

Central Hardwoods

Central HardwoodsCropland

Institutional(Education)

Road Transportation

Resource AtlasDigital Data

PredictiveModel

Online GISDecision Support

SummaryStatistics

Impervious Surface WatershedQuality Assessment

SpeciesPreservation

Fiscal ImpactAnalysis

Web AccessibleDigital Imagery

ComprehensiveCommunitySimulation

MunicipalConsolidation Analysis

Community Deliverables

• County Resource Atlas, for each county, illustrating patterns of land use/land cover, natural resources, demographics, etc.:– Large format maps.– Summary statistics depicting change characteristics.– Fact Sheets.

• Digital Data for use in county GIS programs:– Land Use/Land Cover polygon data.– Statewide digital imagery sets (NAIP).

• Web accessible products:– Online GIS decision support and planning tools.

Predictive Model for Michigan

• Dynamic model based upon several sub-models that “talk to each other”:– Demographic trends.– Community characteristics.– Economic impacts.– Land demand and consumption forecast.– Infrastructure planning requirements.– Fiscal impacts.– Ecological impacts.– Consolidation implications.

Directed Research

• Fiscal Impact Analysis.• Impervious surfaces in watersheds -assessment of

water quality impacts.• Unique and endangered species preservation.• Brownfield redevelopment.• Commerce Center impacts.• Cool Cities impacts.• Impacts of farmland preservation.• Growth corridors.

Products and Timelines

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4

Aerial Imagery Acquisition

Land Use/Land CoverData Update & Development

Community Deliverables

State Model and Relational Database

Directed Research

Empower Michigan decision-makers

with critical land use information

Mission

Next Steps

• Need strong partnership

• Need to refine activities and goals

• Need to identify funding sources

• Need advisory committee

• Need to formalize partnership structure