Software and Systems Quarterly Market Update
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Transcript of Software and Systems Quarterly Market Update
Software and SystemsQuarterly Market Update
Strictly Private and Confidential
June 2011
1
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1995 2000 2005 2010Y/Ye
ar C
hang
e, b
y Q
uarte
r
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
Macroeconomic Conditions – Effect on Technology Markets
Changes in Real GDP and IT Investment(1)
Unemployment(3)
Recessions
IT spending remains highly correlated to economic growth
On average from 1989 through 2010, changes in IT spending outpaced changes in GDP growth – and were generally a leading indicator of economic improvement
U.S. Real GDP is forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 3.0% in 2011 and 3.6% in 2012(2)…but economists remain skeptical
Record cash balances and access to robust capital markets should continue to foster growth in productivity-enhancing corporate IT investments
(1) US Department of Commerce, Forrester Research, and CapitalIQ(2) RBC Economic Research, as of 6/2/11(3) US Bureau of Labor Statistics and National Bureau of Economic Research
The severity and duration of the most recent recession left unemployment higher than either of the two prior downturns
Unemployment hit a high of 10.1% in October 2009 and has since mildly abated, to 9.1% in May 2011
Recent concerns pertaining to a potential double-dip recession are centered on the stubbornly high unemployment rate
Recession Length Unemployment RateBeginning (months) Beginning End
Jul '90 8 5.5% 7.8%
Mar '01 8 4.3% 6.3%
Dec '07 19 4.9% 9.6%
% Change in Real GDP % Change in IT Investment
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
2
$8,150$17,250
$25,300 $23,350 $24,700 $22,400$15,336
$5,920
$14,132$8,637
$17,773$9,162
$40,604$33,397
$15,454
$5,407
$23,861
$17,584
$13,963$18,153
$2,636
$5,150
$7,143
$3,894
$53,040
$73,476
$42,544
$78,053$74,719
$57,522
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Jan-00 Apr-01 Jul-02 Oct-03 Jan-05 Apr-06 Jul-07 Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11
Yiel
d
Favorable interest rates will likely lead to record corporate debt issuance in 2011
Debt Capital Markets Conditions
Source: ML Index System, Bloomberg, S&P Leveraged Commentary & Data, and CapitalIQ(1) Debt issuance through 4/30/11
IG Secondary Spread Performance Annual Technology Debt Issuance by Type($ in millions)
Investment Grade LoansHigh Yield Convertible Notes
(1)
BBB Index (%) BB Index (%) 3-Month LIBOR (%) 10 Year Treasury Rate
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Spre
ad (b
ps)
IG Technology
IG Corporates
Historically Low Interest RatesDebt Market Commentary
The investment grade market is off to a robust start in 2011 with over $400bn in supply priced across the corporate, financial, and SSAsectors in Q1’2011
Similarly, a strong pace of issuance in the leveraged finance and high yield markets has continued from 2010 to 2011 YTD given strong M&A activity and the refinancing of debt issued before the crisis
Convertible bond issuance is on track to surpass 2010 levels, asissuers opportunistically issue equity at premiums to improved stock market values
In general, historically low interest rates continue to power the debt markets
33
Recent Technology Stock Price Performance
Source: Factset as of 05/31/2011Note: Based on RBC’s total universe of 90 public software & systems companies
Since the March 2009 market trough, technology stocks have outperformed the broader market
Performances since March 2009
Enterprise Applications 172%Infrastructure / Storage 155%SaaS 141%NASDAQ 95%S&P 500 75%Large Cap / Platform 71%IT Security 63%
Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 May-1150
100
150
200
250
300
350 Performance Since: March 2009 YTDEnterprise Applications 203% 13%SaaS 182% 11%Infrastructure / Storage 163% 15%NASDAQ 106% 7%S&P 500 83% 7%Large Cap / Platform 69% 2%IT Security 40% 11%
44
Valuation Matrix: Revenue Growth vs. EBITDA Margin
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research and other Wall Street sources. Companies based on consensus estimates from FactSet. Updated 06/04/2011.
Higher growth companies continue to receive richer multiples
Revenue Growth CY'10 – CY'11E<5% 5% - 10% 10% - 20% >20% Median
>25%
3 companies
MCRO-GB, SGE-GB, TrendMicro
Median EV/Revenue: 2.5xMedian EV/EBITDA: 8.1x
11 companies
BMC, CA, PRGS, ADBE, SOW-DE, MSFT, SYMC, WBSN, VRNT, SNPS,
CSCO
Median EV/Revenue: 2.6xMedian EV/EBITDA: 8.2x
21 companies
CTXS, NTCT, RHT, TIBX, AU-GB, OTEX, INFA, TDC, INTU, JDAS,
ORCL, CHKP, ZIXI, VRSN, CNQR, LOGM, IL, DSY-FR, ADSK, AVV-GB,
EMC
Median EV/Revenue: 5.2xMedian EV/EBITDA: 14.8x
8 companies
VMW, SWI, SAP, JCOM, LPSN, AAPL, GOOG, OPEN
Median EV/Revenue: 4.7xMedian EV/EBITDA: 14.1x
EV/Revenue: 3.7xEV/EBITDA: 11.1x
15%
- 25
%
1 companies
BCSI
Median EV/Revenue: 2.2xMedian EV/EBITDA: 11.2x
4 companies
CPWR, MANH, IBM, MENT
Median EV/Revenue: 2.2xMedian EV/EBITDA: 9.5x
14 companies
CVLT, QSFT, BLKB, CSU, MCRS, RADS, FIRE, ULTI, CKSW, ARBA,
BBBB, VOCS, PMTC, CDNS
Median EV/Revenue: 3.0xMedian EV/EBITDA: 13.4x
13 companies
PRO, PROJ, CRM, FTNT, KNXA, TLEO, RP, ATHN, CTCT, TRAK, SQI,
NTAP, MKTG
Median EV/Revenue: 4.7xMedian EV/EBITDA: 22.6x
EV/Revenue: 2.6xEV/EBITDA: 12.3x
<15%
5 companies
PVSW, QTM, CDCS, DELL, HPQ
Median EV/Revenue: 0.7xMedian EV/EBITDA: 4.6x
5 companies
FALC, AMSWA, SAAS, RTLX-IL, SABA
Median EV/Revenue: 1.7xMedian EV/EBITDA: 73.3x
8 companies
GUID, MSTR, AZPN, QADB, CALD, N, DMAN, CNVO
Median EV/Revenue: 2.4xMedian EV/EBITDA: 19.4x
8 companies
PEGA, QLIK, RNOW, VDSI, CYDE, SFSF, CSOD, SPSC
Median EV/Revenue: 6.8xMedian EV/EBITDA: 35.4x
EV/Revenue: 2.0xEV/EBITDA: 27.4x
Median EV/Revenue: 2.2xEV/EBITDA: 8.1x
EV/Revenue: 2.2xEV/EBITDA: 9.5x
EV/Revenue: 3.0xEV/EBITDA: 14.8x
EV/Revenue: 4.7xEV/EBITDA: 22.6x
CY'
11E
EB
ITD
A M
argi
n
5
Valuation Metrics, by Business Model and by Company Size
3.7x
3.0x2.7x
3.3x
< $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $999 $1,000+
21.2x
13.6x
11.2x9.8x
< $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $999 $1,000+
11.2x
24.6x
License / Up Front Models SaaS / Subscription Models
By Business Model
By Company Size (LTM Revenue)
EV / ’11E Revenue EV / ’11E EBITDA
($ in millions)
Source: CapitalIQ and Company filings as of 05/31/2011. Please see Appendix for companies included in the calculations
EV / ’11E Revenue EV / ’11E EBITDA
The market continues to favor high-growth SaaS and recurring
revenue subscription models
Larger companies are not necessarily rewarded with higher valuation multiples
2.7x
5.0x
License / Up Front Models SaaS / Subscription Models
6
19.8x 22.3x
12.8x
20.6x
32.2x
IT Security Infrastructure / Storage Large-Cap / Platform Enterprise Applications SaaS
Valuation Metrics, by Sub-Segment
Source: FactSet and Company filings as of 05/31/2011. Please see Appendix for companies included in the calculations (1) Reflects Price/Free Cash Flow for SaaS companies, where Free Cash Flow is defined as cash flow from operations less capital expenditures
EV / ’11E Revenue
2011E Median: 2.5x
EV / ’11E EBITDA
2011E Median: 13.2x
Price / ’11E Earnings or Price / ’11E FCF(1)
2011E Median: 20.2x
(1)
2.5x 3.0x 2.5x 2.3x
5.0x
IT Security Infrastructure / Storage Large-Cap / Platform Enterprise Applications SaaS
19.5x
13.2x
8.7x11.5x
24.6x
IT Security Infrastructure / Storage Large-Cap / Platform Enterprise Applications SaaS
7
18.2%15.5%
12.9% 12.0%
< $250 $250 - $500 $500 - $999 $1,000+
12.9%
21.6%
License / Up Front Models SaaS / Subscription Models
2010 – 2011E Revenue Growth by Company Size
2011E Median: 14.2%
Revenue Growth, by Business Model and by Company Size
13.4%15.2%
8.0%
12.3%
21.6%
IT Security Infrastructure / Storage Large-Cap / Platform Enterprise Applications SaaS
2010 – 2011E Revenue Growth by Sub-Segment
2011E Median: 13.4%
(1)
Increasing adoption rates of SaaS-based
solutions, particularly by small- and medium-sized businesses, continue to
drive higher growth estimates for SaaS
companies than other segments
As expected, larger companies with greater scale generally grow at
lower rates
Source: FactSet and Company filings as of 05/31/2011. Please see Appendix for companies included in the calculations
2010 – 2011E Revenue Growth by Business Model
8
20.5x
23.0x23.8x 23.9x 23.4x 23.2x 22.7x
25.7x27.0x 26.9x 26.8x
28.8x 28.5x29.2x
33.0x
27.0x
31.2x
24.8x
20.0x
22.7x21.4x
24.4x23.7x
26.6x26.0x
May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11
Historic SaaS Valuation Multiples
(1) Based on forward twelve months Wall Street consensus estimates. Free cash flow defined as cash flow from operations less capital expendituresSource: Company filings, press releases, and other Wall Street research. Please see Appendix for companies included in the calculationsEnterprise Value (EV) = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
Median EV / FTM Rev. Multiples (1)
Market Cap / FCF Multiples (1)
SaaS-based models are trading at or near two-year highs
relative to both revenue and free cash flow
Investors continue to place premium value on SaaS
companies due to higher growth, recurring revenue and
strong operating leverage
Recent SaaS IPOs such as Responsys and Cornerstone
OnDemand have performed well
2.4x2.6x
2.7x
3.2x 3.1x2.9x
3.0x 3.1x3.3x
3.4x
4.0x 3.9x
4.3x 4.4x
4.1x
4.7x 4.7x
3.1x2.9x
3.9x
3.5x
2.7x2.8x2.8x2.8x
May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 Nov-10 Feb-11 May-11
9
P&L Metrics, by Revenue Size
4.2%
14.5%
22.2%
< $250 million $250 - $999 million $1 billion +
14.3% 13.7%
11.5%
< $250 million $250 - $999 million $1 billion +
31.7%28.1%
21.5%
< $250 million $250 - $999 million $1 billion +
Source: CapitalIQ and company filings as of 05/31/2011. Please see Appendix for companies included in the calculations
LTM Operating Margin LTM Research & Development(% of Revenue)
LTM Sales & Marketing(% of Revenue)
LTM G&A(% of Revenue)
As expected, larger companies enjoy economies of scale,
resulting in operating margins correlated with company size
Economies of scale exist throughout the income statement but are most
apparent in sales & marketing and general & administrative
expenses, and less in research and development spend
14.6%
10.8%
5.2%
< $250 million $250 - $999 million $1 billion +
10
Technology M&A Trends
Technology M&A – Transactions Since 2006
Source: CapitalIQ1 2011 YTD is annualized as of 05/31/112 Ernst & Young, “Global technology M&A update,” 2011
$100.6B $50.0B$68.9B$76.1B$175.5B$140.4BVolume
MicrosoftIntelXeroxHPKKRAlcatelBuyer
SkypeMcAfeeACSEDSFirst DataLucentTarget
$8.5B$7.7B$8.8B$17.0B$28.7B$18.9BValue
Largest Transactions:
M&A activity accelerated in 2010– Technology shifts (sector convergence, cloud /
virtualization, mobility, social media)– Unprecedented cash balances, need for growth – Volatile IPO market for smaller tech companies– Representative 2010 transactions included:
• Intel entered security software market via purchase of McAfee ($7.7B )
• HP – Significant M&A activity, including storage (3PAR), smart phones (Palm), security (ArcSight)
• Oracle’s aim for CRM, retail and e-commerce unity with the purchase of Art Technology ($1.0B)
• SAP’s acquisition of Sybase ($5.8B)• Carlyle’s acquisition of CommScope ($3.9B)• Consolidation in the marketing analytics sector,
including IBM’s acquisition of Unica ($450M) and Teradata’s acquisition of Aprimo ($525M)
Trend continues in 2011– Tech Top 25 began the year with $530B in cash2
– Firms looking to expand into adjacent segments to supplement product portfolios
– Rising market valuations: stock valuable as currency, more expensive for buybacks – but rising valuation environment also gives smaller tech companies an exit opportunity through IPO
– PE firms have significant capital to deploy– Recent transactions (announced or closed) include:
• Attachmate’s acquisition of Novell ($2.2B)• Microsoft’s acquisition of Skype ($8.5B)• Apax Partners’ acquisitions of ERP players
Activant and Epicor (combined $2.0B)
Key M&A Themes
Number of transactions Median deal size ($M)
595619
473
343
472
404
167
$42$40$25$27$36$35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD
(1)
11
Technology M&A Consolidators
Source: Capital IQ, current as of 5/31/11
The desire for forward growth continues to be a key driver of M&A activity
Number of Acquisitions Since 2007 Selected Recent Transactions
14
13
17
16
12
14
11
3
10
7
8
4
3
2
3
11
17
12
6
5
5
2
6
2
3
6
5
3
3
7
9
8
8
6
7
5
7
1
3
5
1
2
3
3
30
15
3
8
11
7
4
9
5
7
3
7
4
6
2
14
1
3
1
2
3
7
4
3
3
2
3
1
2
1
68
49
48
45
37
36
32
25
25
22
21
21
15
11
14
0 20 40 60 80
IBM
Microsoft
Oracle
HP
Cisco
EMC
Intel
Sungard
Dell
SAP
VMWare
Symantec
CA
McAfee
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
GoogleSparkbuy, TalkBin, PushLife, Beatthatquote.com, Next New Networks, BeatThatQuote.com,
Widevine Technologies, ITA Software, Global IP Solutions, AdMob, reCAPTCHA, On2 IBM
Netezza, Blade Network, Unica, CastIron, Cognos, DataMirror, Exeros, ILOG, Lombardi, Ounce Labs, OpenPages, Platform Solutions, SPSS, Telelogic, Transitive Corp,
MicrosoftSkype, InterGrid, Canesta, AVIcode, 90 Degree Software, Danger, DATAllegro, FAST,
Greenfield Online, Komoku, Powerset, Zoomix Data MasteringOracle
Art Technology, Datanomic, BEA, GoldenGate Software, mValent, Primavera, Relsys International, Skywire, Sun Microsystems, Virtual Iron, Phase Forward, Amberpoint
HPPrintelligence, Vertica, 3Com, 3Par, ArcSight, Colubris, EDS, Exstream Software, IBRIX,
LeftHand, Neoware, Opsware, SPI Dynamics, TOWER, Palm, MelodeoCisco Systems
Newscale, Arch Rock, Jabber, Latigent, PostPath, Pure Digital, Pure Networks, Richard-Zeta Building Intelligence, Securent, Starent Networks, Tandberg, Tidal
EMCEvent Robot, Shavlik Tech, SlideRocket, Isilon Systems, Art Technology Group, Archer, Conchango, Configuresoft, Data Domain, Document Sciences, FastScale Technology,
IntelSySDSoft, Infineon (Wireless Solutions Business), McAfee, Wind River Systems, Freescale
Semiconductor (French Division), Virtutech, RapidMindSungard
Stratix Consulting, Valuelink, PredictiveMetrics, GL TRADE, Fox River Execution Technology, Inmatrix Technology, Genix Systems, Delphi Technologies, Advanced Portfolio Technologies
DellComepellent Technologies, ASAP, EqualLogic, Everdream, MessageOne, Silverback
Technologies, Zing Systems, Perot, KACE Networks, ExanetSAP
Analysis and Forecasting AG, Business Objects, Outlooksoft, SAF Simulation, Sybase, Triversity, TechniDATA
VMWarePropero, B-Hive, Blue Lane, Trango Virtual Processors, Tungsten Graphics, SpringSource,
Zimbra, RTO, IT Management of EMCSymantec
Clearwell Systems,Altiris, Vontu, AppStream, SwapDrive, nSuite, MessageLabs, Mi5, GuardianEdge, PGP, VeriSign
CABase Technologies, Optinuity, ID Focus, Eurekify, Orchestria, Cassatt, NetQoS, Oblicore,
3tera, Nimsoft, 4Base Technology, Arcot SystemsMcAfee
Sentrigo, tenCube, TD Securities, MX Logic, Solidcore Systems, Endeavor Security, Secure Computing, Lockdown Networks, Reconnex
12
$56
$82 $79 $73
$189$209
$153
$94
$7 $13 $10 $7 $5
$38$26 $18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
108 6
2 31
7
1619
22
1215
5
11
5 10
4
73
4
1
2
32
4
1
2
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
Q22010
Q32010
Q42010
Q12011
Q22011
YTD 2011 Median LTM Revenue & EBITDA at Time of IPO
Technology IPO Market
The technology sector is leading a rebounding IPO market, with 2011 issuance outpacing 2010
Median company size and profitability levels remain high relative to historical levels
IPO activity continued to rebound in 2010 as investors deployed previously-sidelined capital – and the momentum has continued in 2011
SaaS and social median / internet businesses dominate the IPO backlog
$1,834
$5,946$4,703
$3,952
$10,139
$5,074
$7,570
$3,655
$797
14
36
28
33
57
4
45
2112
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: DealogicExcluding IPOs less than $15.0 million(1) YTD figure, through May 2011
YTD 2011 Technology IPO Volume
Median LTM Revenue ($M) Median LTM EBITDA ($M)
# of DealsDeal Value
($ in millions)
($ in millions)
Momentum in the equity capital markets has continued in 2011, with twenty-one IPOs raising more than $3.6 billion YTD through May
(1)
Key Trends
(1)
Technology IPO Filings & Withdrawals
Filed Deals Withdrawn Deals
(1)
Appendix
14
IT Security Public Comparables
US$Price % of 52 Market Ent. EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / EPS
Company Ticker 2011/05/31 Week High Cap. (1) Debt Cash Value (2) 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E
IT SecuritySymantec SYMC $19.55 95% $14,936 $2,561 $2,452 $15,045 2.5x 2.3x 2.2x 9.0x 6.8x 6.2x 24.8x 12.6x 11.1xCheck Point CHKP $54.92 98% $12,019 $0 $1,083 $10,936 10.0x 8.9x 8.1x 18.4x 14.9x 13.5x 25.8x 19.8x 17.7xTrend Micro Inc. 4704 $30.40 89% $4,060 $1 $1,439 $2,622 2.4x 2.2x 2.1x 7.6x 6.5x 5.9x 28.1x 21.6x 19.6xFortinet Inc FTNT $24.25 98% $2,172 $0 $302 $1,871 5.8x 4.7x 4.0x 30.6x 20.6x 16.6x NM NM NMBlue Coat Systems BCSI $22.95 71% $1,204 $79 $350 $933 1.9x 1.9x 1.8x 9.9x 10.0x 9.9x 17.5x 19.6x 18.7xWebsense WBSN $24.85 89% $1,009 $63 $79 $993 3.0x 2.7x 2.6x 14.5x 10.4x 10.4x NM 16.1x 14.7xSourcefire FIRE $26.71 81% $795 $0 $54 $740 5.7x 4.8x 4.0x 42.0x 32.0x 21.9x 38.6x NM 38.9xVASCO Data Security VDSI $11.94 81% $462 $0 $86 $376 3.5x 2.6x 2.4x 25.3x 22.3x 18.9x 42.3x 37.1x 29.4xZix ZIXI $3.81 78% $274 $0 $25 $250 7.6x 6.4x 5.4x 38.1x 19.5x 15.6x 29.3x 24.7x 19.4xGuidance Software GUID $8.03 92% $203 $0 $25 $178 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x NM NM 46.6x NM NM 31.9xAbsolute Software *ABT $4.54 98% $202 $0 $31 $171 2.6x 2.2x 2.0x NM 21.7x 22.6x NM NM NMCyberDefender Corporation CYDE $1.84 38% $62 $9 $6 $65 1.4x 0.9x NA NM 33.5x NA NM NM NA
Median: 2.8 x 2.5 x 2.4 x 18.4 x 19.5 x 15.6 x 28.1 x 19.8 x 19.4 xMean: 4.0 x 3.5 x 3.3 x 21.7 x 18.0 x 17.1 x 29.5 x 21.6 x 22.4 x
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
MRQ EBITDARevenue Revenue Growth Gross EBITDA Margin EPS 5yr EPS
Company 2010A 2011E 2012E '10-'11 '11-'12 Margin 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2010A 2011E 2012E Growth
IT SecuritySymantec $6,048 $6,523 $6,926 8% 6% 85% $1,680 $2,215 $2,431 28% $0.79 $1.56 $1.76 9%Check Point $1,098 $1,228 $1,349 12% 10% 89% $594 $736 $809 54% $2.13 $2.78 $3.10 11%Trend Micro Inc. $1,088 $1,204 $1,272 11% 6% 82% $346 $401 $447 32% $1.08 $1.41 $1.55 NAFortinet Inc $325 $399 $463 23% 16% 75% $61 $91 $113 19% $0.13 $0.35 $0.42 18%Blue Coat Systems $500 $480 $506 (4%) 6% 78% $95 $93 $95 19% $1.31 $1.17 $1.23 12%Websense $333 $364 $380 9% 4% 83% $69 $95 $95 21% $0.43 $1.54 $1.69 15%Sourcefire $131 $153 $185 17% 21% 79% $18 $23 $34 13% $0.69 $0.46 $0.69 22%VASCO Data Security $108 $144 $158 33% 10% 62% $15 $17 $20 14% $0.28 $0.32 $0.41 NAZix $33 $39 $46 18% 19% 81% $7 $13 $16 20% $0.13 $0.15 $0.20 23%Guidance Software $92 $101 $111 10% 9% 68% $0 $1 $4 0% ($0.20) $0.15 $0.25 NAAbsolute Software $66 $76 $85 15% 11% 72% $2 $8 $8 3% ($0.14) ($0.04) ($0.02) NACyberDefender Corporation $46 $71 NA 55% NA 54% ($37) $2 NA NM ($1.49) ($0.27) NA NA
Median: 13% 10% 78% 19% 15%Mean: 17% 11% 76% 20% 16%
15
IT Management / Infrastructure / Storage Public Comparables
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
US$Price % of 52 Market Ent. EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / EPS
Company Ticker 2011/05/31 Week High Cap. (1) Debt Cash Value (2) 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E
IT Management / Infrastructure / StorageVMWare VMW $97.32 98% $43,688 $450 $3,662 $40,476 14.2x 11.2x 9.4x NM 30.8x 25.6x NM 49.3x 41.6xCitrix Systems CTXS $87.62 99% $17,059 $8 $930 $16,137 8.6x 7.5x 6.6x 35.1x 23.4x 20.6x NM 36.3x 31.8xCA CA $23.40 91% $11,855 $1,555 $2,589 $10,821 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x 6.8x 6.1x 5.8x 16.0x 11.2x 10.3xBMC Software BMC $55.83 100% $10,201 $352 $1,689 $8,864 4.4x 4.0x 3.7x 12.9x 9.3x 8.5x 22.5x 17.5x 15.8xTeradata Corporation TDC $55.79 99% $9,770 $300 $778 $9,292 4.8x 4.1x 3.8x 19.6x 16.2x 13.7x 31.6x 25.2x 22.0xRed Hat RHT $43.60 89% $8,868 $0 $861 $8,007 9.1x 7.7x 6.7x 43.2x 25.7x 22.3x NM 46.5x 39.7xInformatica INFA $58.66 99% $7,479 $0 $553 $6,927 10.7x 9.0x 7.8x 45.2x 32.6x 27.2x NM 43.2x 36.1xAutonomy AU-GB $29.58 97% $7,303 $771 $1,068 $7,006 8.0x 6.9x 6.0x 17.0x 14.3x 11.9x 33.3x 24.4x 19.9xTibco Software TIBX $28.09 91% $5,162 $41 $262 $4,941 6.5x 5.7x 5.1x 28.8x 19.6x 17.3x NM 30.5x 26.1xSoftware AG SOW-DE $55.75 87% $4,757 $378 $204 $4,931 3.3x 2.9x 2.7x 11.9x 9.8x 9.0x 20.5x 15.3x 13.8xOpen Text OTEX $65.25 97% $3,846 $299 $238 $3,907 4.2x 3.6x 3.2x 12.7x 12.0x 10.2x 30.7x 15.0x 13.0xQlik Technologies QLIK $33.29 100% $3,078 $0 $177 $2,901 12.8x 9.5x 7.6x NM NM 42.6x NM NM NMCompuware Corp. CPWR $10.19 83% $2,282 $0 $82 $2,200 2.4x 2.2x 2.0x 12.1x 9.1x 8.0x 20.9x 17.8x 14.7xCommvault Systems CVLT $41.34 98% $2,070 $0 $194 $1,877 6.3x 5.3x 4.7x 47.1x 29.9x 24.9x NM 49.0x 41.6xQuest Software QSFT $22.70 80% $2,032 $33 $357 $1,708 2.2x 2.0x 1.8x 10.4x 8.8x 7.6x 21.5x 16.6x 13.5xSolarWinds SWI $24.65 99% $2,006 $0 $143 $1,863 12.2x 9.9x 8.2x 27.6x 20.0x 16.7x 40.1x 28.2x 23.8xProgress Software PRGS $27.07 86% $1,908 $1 $371 $1,538 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x 10.0x 7.8x 6.6x 33.2x 15.1x 13.5xMicroStrategy Inc. MSTR $146.19 98% $1,649 $0 $203 $1,446 3.2x 2.7x 2.4x 22.8x 26.3x 19.6x 39.3x NM 32.6xPegasystems PEGA $37.35 90% $1,409 $0 $87 $1,322 3.9x 3.0x 2.6x NM 21.4x 17.2x NM 31.9x 25.6xMicro Focus International plc MCRO-GB $6.17 76% $1,221 $73 $33 $1,261 2.9x 2.9x 2.9x 7.8x 8.0x 7.8x 11.6x 11.7x 11.2xNetscout Systems NTCT $23.20 83% $1,018 $68 $201 $886 3.1x 2.8x 2.5x 13.8x 10.4x 8.7x 29.9x 20.1x 17.6xQuantum Corp. QTM $3.07 69% $751 $280 $91 $940 1.4x 1.4x 1.3x 13.6x NA NA NM 14.6x 12.6xFalconstor Software FALC $4.40 85% $205 $0 $42 $163 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x NM NA NA NM NM NMGuidance Software GUID $8.03 92% $203 $0 $25 $178 1.9x 1.8x 1.6x NM NM 46.6x NM NM 31.9xInfoVista SA IFV-FR $7.04 93% $116 $0 $37 $79 1.3x 1.1x 1.0x 16.3x 8.4x 7.3x 29.9x 19.6x 15.3xPervasive Software PVSW $6.45 88% $109 $0 $37 $71 1.5x 1.4x 1.3x 13.7x 10.4x 7.9x 37.2x 26.9x 20.4xVersant VSNT $12.70 89% $41 $0 $25 $16 1.0x NA NA 5.9x NA NA 26.3x NA NAUnify UNFY $2.50 66% $36 $27 $4 $59 1.4x NA NA 9.6x NA NA NM NA NA
Median: 3.3 x 3.0 x 2.8 x 13.7 x 13.2 x 12.8 x 29.9 x 22.3 x 20.2 xMean: 5.0 x 4.4 x 3.9 x 19.3 x 16.4 x 16.4 x 27.8 x 25.7 x 22.7 x
16
IT Management / Infrastructure / Storage Public Comparables (cont’d)(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
MRQ EBITDARevenue Revenue Growth Gross EBITDA Margin EPS 5yr EPS
Company 2010A 2011E 2012E '10-'11 '11-'12 Margin 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2010A 2011E 2012E Growth
IT Management / Infrastructure / StorageVMWare $2,857 $3,626 $4,322 27% 19% 82% $689 $1,312 $1,579 24% $0.84 $1.97 $2.34 25%Citrix Systems $1,875 $2,165 $2,454 15% 13% 91% $460 $688 $785 25% $1.46 $2.42 $2.76 16%CA $4,469 $4,703 $4,948 5% 5% NA $1,591 $1,767 $1,879 36% $1.46 $2.10 $2.28 11%BMC Software $1,994 $2,204 $2,391 11% 8% 76% $686 $952 $1,047 34% $2.48 $3.20 $3.53 20%Teradata Corporation $1,936 $2,246 $2,473 16% 10% 54% $475 $575 $677 25% $1.77 $2.22 $2.54 13%Red Hat $877 $1,037 $1,193 18% 15% 83% $186 $312 $359 21% $0.51 $0.94 $1.10 20%Informatica $650 $769 $890 18% 16% 83% $153 $212 $254 24% $0.83 $1.36 $1.62 19%Autonomy $870 $1,010 $1,173 16% 16% 88% $413 $490 $589 47% $0.89 $1.21 $1.49 NATibco Software $764 $873 $974 14% 12% 71% $172 $252 $286 22% $0.46 $0.92 $1.07 12%Software AG $1,481 $1,704 $1,811 15% 6% 58% $414 $502 $547 28% $2.71 $3.64 $4.04 NAOpen Text $938 $1,091 $1,211 16% 11% 73% $309 $325 $381 33% $2.12 $4.36 $5.01 15%Qlik Technologies $227 $305 $381 35% 25% 88% $30 $44 $68 13% $0.21 $0.33 $0.51 38%Compuware Corp. $909 $989 $1,079 9% 9% 68% $182 $243 $275 20% $0.49 $0.57 $0.70 8%Commvault Systems $299 $352 $403 18% 15% 87% $40 $63 $75 13% $0.48 $0.84 $0.99 21%Quest Software $767 $866 $962 13% 11% 88% $164 $193 $226 21% $1.06 $1.37 $1.68 NASolarWinds $152 $189 $227 24% 20% 94% $68 $93 $112 44% $0.61 $0.88 $1.04 20%Progress Software $531 $570 $616 7% 8% 85% $153 $197 $232 29% $0.81 $1.80 $2.01 15%MicroStrategy Inc. $455 $536 $604 18% 13% 73% $63 $55 $74 14% $3.72 $2.83 $4.48 21%Pegasystems $337 $440 $514 31% 17% 61% $16 $62 $77 5% ($0.16) $1.17 $1.46 23%Micro Focus International plc $433 $434 $441 0% 2% 86% $162 $158 $161 37% $0.53 $0.53 $0.55 NANetscout Systems $284 $319 $361 12% 13% 79% $64 $86 $102 23% $0.78 $1.15 $1.32 16%Quantum Corp. $672 $685 $725 2% 6% 42% $69 NA NA 10% $0.01 $0.21 $0.24 18%Falconstor Software $83 $91 $100 9% 10% 73% ($12) NA NA NM ($0.78) ($0.18) $0.02 NAGuidance Software $92 $101 $111 10% 9% 68% $0 $1 $4 0% ($0.20) $0.15 $0.25 NAInfoVista SA $60 $71 $78 18% 10% 79% $5 $9 $11 8% $0.24 $0.36 $0.46 NAPervasive Software $46 $49 $54 7% 9% 86% $5 $7 $9 11% $0.17 $0.24 $0.32 NAVersant $16 NA NA NA NA 87% $3 NA NA 17% $0.48 NA NA NAUnify $42 NA NA NA NA 72% $6 NA NA 15% ($0.02) NA NA NA
Median: 15% 11% 79% 22% 18%Mean: 15% 12% 77% 22% 18%
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
17
Large-Cap / Platform Public Comparables
US$Price % of 52 Market Ent. EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / EPS
Company Ticker 2011/05/31 Week High Cap. (1) Debt Cash Value (2) 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E
Large-Cap / PlatformMicrosoft MSFT $25.01 85% $210,965 $13,165 $48,717 $175,413 2.6x 2.4x 2.3x 6.0x 5.6x 5.2x 10.4x 9.4x 8.5xInternational Business Machines IBM $168.93 97% $209,848 $30,383 $13,279 $226,952 2.3x 2.1x 2.1x 9.6x 8.7x 8.7x 14.7x 12.8x 12.8xOracle ORCL $34.22 94% $178,585 $15,153 $24,355 $169,383 5.2x 4.5x 4.2x 12.3x 9.7x 8.8x 24.8x 14.9x 13.5xCisco CSCO $16.80 65% $92,870 $30,383 $13,279 $109,974 2.6x 2.5x 2.5x 10.5x 8.7x 8.7x 12.3x 10.2x 10.2xHewlett Packard HPQ $37.38 76% $83,406 $30,383 $13,279 $100,510 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 5.6x 5.2x 5.2x 9.3x 7.3x 7.3xSAP SAP $62.17 91% $73,895 $5,470 $6,349 $73,016 4.4x 3.6x 3.3x 13.5x 10.5x 9.4x 30.9x 16.4x 14.5xEMC EMC $28.47 99% $60,862 $4,256 $5,594 $59,524 3.5x 3.0x 2.7x 15.1x 11.2x 10.2x 32.2x 19.2x 16.5x
Median: 2.6 x 2.5 x 2.5 x 10.5 x 8.7 x 8.7 x 14.7 x 12.8 x 12.8 xMean: 3.1 x 2.7 x 2.6 x 10.4 x 8.5 x 8.0 x 19.2 x 12.9 x 11.9 x
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
MRQ EBITDARevenue Revenue Growth Gross EBITDA Margin EPS 5yr EPS
Company 2010A 2011E 2012E '10-'11 '11-'12 Margin 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2010A 2011E 2012E Growth
Large-Cap / PlatformMicrosoft $66,690 $72,008 $77,188 8% 7% 76% $29,159 $31,191 $33,765 44% $2.40 $2.67 $2.93 10%International Business Machines $99,870 $105,716 $105,716 6% 0% 44% $23,622 $26,007 $26,007 24% $11.52 $13.18 $13.18 11%Oracle $32,780 $37,525 $40,520 14% 8% 77% $13,817 $17,416 $19,286 42% $1.38 $2.30 $2.53 16%Cisco $42,164 $44,199 $44,199 5% 0% 62% $10,467 $12,642 $12,642 25% $1.37 $1.65 $1.65 9%Hewlett Packard $126,465 $130,418 $130,418 3% 0% 25% $17,830 $19,210 $19,210 14% $4.00 $5.11 $5.11 9%SAP $16,475 $20,134 $22,016 22% 9% 65% $5,405 $6,928 $7,741 33% $2.01 $3.80 $4.30 14%EMC $17,015 $19,810 $22,215 16% 12% 59% $3,935 $5,292 $5,862 23% $0.88 $1.49 $1.73 16%
Median: 8% 7% 62% 25% 11%Mean: 11% 5% 58% 29% 12%
18
Enterprise Applications Public Comparables
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
US$Price % of 52 Market Ent. EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / EPS
Company Ticker 2011/05/31 Week High Cap. (1) Debt Cash Value (2) 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E
Enterprise ApplicationsAutodesk ADSK $42.98 93% $10,020 $0 $1,274 $8,746 4.6x 4.0x 4.0x 25.2x 15.5x 15.5x 48.3x 26.0x 26.0xDassault Systèmes DSY-FR $84.98 98% $10,299 $405 $1,414 $9,290 4.5x 3.7x 3.7x 15.9x 12.0x 12.0x 35.3x 21.0x 21.0xSage Group plc SGE-GB $4.78 97% $6,288 $303 $185 $6,405 2.8x 2.6x 2.5x 10.1x 9.6x 9.0x 17.6x 14.3x 13.2xAnsys ANSS $57.37 100% $5,473 $154 $550 $5,077 8.7x 7.7x 7.7x 18.1x 11.8x 11.8x 34.9x 24.2x 24.2xMICROS Systems, Inc. MCRS $51.06 96% $4,319 $6 $749 $3,576 3.7x 3.4x 3.0x 17.3x 14.2x 12.3x 33.0x 26.0x 22.1xParametric Technology PMTC $23.29 92% $2,806 $0 $260 $2,546 2.5x 2.2x 2.2x 19.6x 10.7x 10.7x NM 18.1x 18.1xAveva Group AVV-GB $27.44 98% $1,873 $0 $227 $1,646 6.4x 5.3x 5.3x 19.5x 16.1x 16.1x 35.3x 26.5x 26.5xConstellation Software Inc. CSU-CA $77.15 100% $1,635 $86 $58 $1,663 2.6x 2.3x 2.1x 10.2x 11.2x 10.2x 39.1x 14.4x 13.3xAspen Technology AZPN $16.55 97% $1,616 $56 $151 $1,521 8.6x 7.1x 5.6x NM NM NM NM NM NMMentor Graphics MENT $13.41 81% $1,471 $281 $190 $1,562 1.8x 1.6x 1.6x 14.7x 7.6x 7.6x NM 13.6x 13.6xJDA Software JDAS $33.03 94% $1,419 $273 $226 $1,466 2.4x 2.2x 2.0x 9.9x 8.1x 7.3x NM 15.5x 13.2xBlackbaud BLKB $28.15 93% $1,226 $0 $24 $1,201 3.7x 3.2x 2.9x 21.4x 13.6x 12.3x 41.4x 26.3x 23.7xRadiant Systems Inc. RADS $21.00 99% $911 $14 $89 $836 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 16.6x 13.6x 11.3x 35.7x 20.6x 17.9xManhattan Associates MANH $35.95 97% $823 $0 $118 $706 2.4x 2.2x 1.9x 13.8x 10.4x 8.6x 28.8x 19.0x 16.9xDeltek PROJ $7.45 86% $486 $197 $70 $613 2.2x 1.7x 1.6x 23.0x 9.8x 7.6x NM 22.9x 14.7xRetalix Ltd. RTLX-IL $14.64 92% $354 $5 $140 $219 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 12.0x NA NA 33.3x 19.1x 15.0xClickSoftware Technologies CKSW $10.66 97% $352 $0 $51 $300 4.2x 3.6x 3.1x 24.5x 16.6x 14.0x 37.8x 22.4x 17.3xSaba SABA $9.89 93% $312 $1 $32 $281 2.5x 2.3x 2.0x NM NM 38.6x NM NM NMCallidus Software CALD $5.89 82% $207 $3 $29 $181 2.5x 2.3x 2.0x NM 35.7x 18.2x NM NM 33.7xAmerican Software AMSWA $7.68 96% $207 $0 $42 $165 2.1x 1.9x 1.7x 12.7x NA NA 33.7x 24.8x 20.2xQAD QADB $10.36 58% $185 $16 $67 $135 0.6x 0.6x 0.5x 10.6x 6.0x NA NM 15.3x 12.5xCDC Software Corporation CDCS $4.83 52% $138 $16 $45 $109 0.5x 0.5x 0.5x 2.6x 3.8x 3.3x 21.4x 6.7x 5.4x
Median: 2.5 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 15.9 x 11.5 x 11.5 x 35.1 x 20.6 x 17.6 xMean: 3.3 x 2.9 x 2.7 x 15.7 x 12.6 x 12.6 x 34.0 x 19.8 x 18.4 x
19
Enterprise Applications Public Comparables (cont’d)(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
MRQ EBITDARevenue Revenue Growth Gross EBITDA Margin EPS 5yr EPS
Company 2010A 2011E 2012E '10-'11 '11-'12 Margin 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2010A 2011E 2012E Growth
Enterprise ApplicationsAutodesk $1,916 $2,171 $2,171 13% 0% 91% $348 $566 $566 18% $0.89 $1.65 $1.65 16%Dassault Systèmes $2,069 $2,498 $2,498 21% 0% 86% $586 $774 $774 28% $2.41 $4.05 $4.05 NASage Group plc $2,253 $2,473 $2,593 10% 5% 93% $636 $669 $715 28% $0.27 $0.33 $0.36 NAAnsys $580 $662 $662 14% 0% 88% $280 $429 $429 48% $1.64 $2.37 $2.37 14%MICROS Systems, Inc. $958 $1,058 $1,183 10% 12% 56% $207 $251 $291 22% $1.55 $1.96 $2.31 18%Parametric Technology $1,018 $1,168 $1,168 15% 0% 70% $130 $237 $237 13% $0.16 $1.29 $1.29 13%Aveva Group $258 $309 $309 20% 0% 80% $85 $102 $102 33% $0.78 $1.04 $1.04 NAConstellation Software Inc. $631 $733 $788 16% 8% 32% $163 $149 $163 26% $1.97 $5.37 $5.78 NAAspen Technology $177 $214 $270 21% 26% 80% ($78) ($32) $15 NM ($0.87) ($0.37) ($0.03) 13%Mentor Graphics $891 $996 $996 12% 0% 86% $106 $207 $207 12% $0.21 $0.99 $0.99 15%JDA Software $617 $681 $747 10% 10% 60% $148 $180 $200 24% $0.42 $2.13 $2.50 NABlackbaud $327 $370 $407 13% 10% 58% $56 $88 $98 17% $0.68 $1.07 $1.19 10%Radiant Systems Inc. $346 $385 $431 11% 12% 48% $50 $61 $74 15% $0.59 $1.02 $1.17 14%Manhattan Associates $297 $325 $362 10% 11% 55% $51 $68 $82 17% $1.25 $1.90 $2.13 NADeltek $280 $356 $395 27% 11% 62% $27 $62 $80 10% ($0.08) $0.33 $0.51 10%Retalix Ltd. $207 $227 $250 9% 10% 42% $18 NA NA 9% $0.44 $0.77 $0.98 NAClickSoftware Technologies $71 $83 $97 18% 16% 61% $12 $18 $21 17% $0.28 $0.48 $0.62 38%Saba $113 $123 $138 9% 12% 64% $5 $3 $7 4% ($0.07) $0.02 $0.07 25%Callidus Software $71 $80 $89 13% 11% 40% ($6) $5 $10 NM ($0.40) $0.07 $0.18 20%American Software $79 $87 $95 10% 9% 51% $13 NA NA 16% $0.23 $0.31 $0.38 NAQAD $217 $242 $263 12% 9% 56% $13 $23 NA 6% $0.19 $0.68 $0.83 NACDC Software Corporation $213 $223 $237 5% 6% 53% $41 $29 $33 19% $0.23 $0.73 $0.90 -14%
Median: 12% 9% 60% 17% 14%Mean: 14% 8% 64% 19% 15%
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
20
SaaS Public Comparables
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents(3) Free Cash Flow = Cash Flow from Operations - Capital Expenditures. Source: FactSet Consensus
(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
US$Price % of 52 Market Ent. EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Price / EPS P / FCF (3)
Company Ticker 05/31/11 Week High Cap. (1) Debt Cash Value (2) 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E
SaaSSalesforce.com CRM $152.26 99% $21,660 $492 $497 $21,655 13.3x 10.2x 8.3x NM NM 39.7x NM NM NM NM NM Ariba ARBA $33.54 94% $3,249 $0 $198 $3,051 8.0x 6.8x 5.9x 37.9x 30.0x 21.9x 43.1x 38.8x 29.9x NM 45.7xSuccessFactors SFSF $35.07 87% $2,950 $0 $367 $2,582 12.5x 9.2x 7.7x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM Concur CNQR $49.97 86% $2,740 $234 $567 $2,407 7.8x 6.5x 5.4x 27.8x 24.1x 18.1x NM NM 43.1x 45.3x 44.2xNetSuite N $37.74 99% $2,672 $0 $112 $2,560 13.3x 11.1x 9.4x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM OpenTable OPEN $88.33 74% $2,246 $0 $55 $2,190 22.1x 14.9x 11.4x NM 39.9x 27.9x NM NM NM NM NM RealPage RP $29.45 86% $2,262 $63 $124 $2,201 11.7x 8.6x 7.0x NM 37.7x 28.1x NM NM NM NM NM Athenahealth ATHN $44.77 89% $1,624 $8 $103 $1,529 6.2x 4.9x 3.9x 30.0x 25.2x 18.8x NM NM 41.0x NM NM Taleo TLEO $37.33 98% $1,572 $0 $146 $1,426 5.9x 4.6x 4.0x 22.5x 22.2x 18.1x 47.9x 40.0x 33.3x NM 33.6xUltimate ULTI $56.38 93% $1,559 $5 $56 $1,507 6.6x 5.6x 4.7x 45.1x 36.1x 21.8x NM NM NM NM NM Blackboard BBBB $43.09 86% $1,555 $165 $53 $1,668 3.7x 3.1x 2.8x 14.8x 12.9x 11.1x 26.9x 23.5x 20.1x 17.3x 16.0xJ2 Global Communications JCOM $28.99 94% $1,387 $0 $124 $1,264 4.9x 3.8x 3.6x 9.4x 7.7x 7.0x 14.8x 12.2x 11.6x 14.6x 11.9xRightnow Technologies RNOW $33.10 90% $1,215 $175 $250 $1,141 6.1x 5.0x 4.3x 41.0x 38.5x 23.4x NM NM 40.8x NM NM IntraLinks IL $20.65 64% $1,143 $126 $51 $1,218 6.6x 5.6x 4.8x 19.5x 16.6x 13.9x NM 39.8x 30.5x NM 26.7xLogMeIn LOGM $43.52 88% $1,120 $0 $176 $944 9.3x 7.9x 6.5x 34.3x 31.3x 22.6x NM NM 47.3x 34.8x 31.2xCornerstone OnDemand CSOD $19.31 82% $1,005 $3 $91 $917 19.7x 12.8x 8.6x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM DealerTrack TRAK $23.17 86% $988 $0 $58 $930 3.8x 2.8x 2.5x 16.3x 13.7x 11.1x 43.7x 28.7x 25.3x NM 37.1xResponsys MKTG $17.19 96% $954 $0 $72 $883 10.4x 7.5x 6.0x 40.5x 41.2x 36.1x NM NM NM NM NM Kenexa KNXA $31.62 95% $806 $37 $20 $828 4.2x 3.1x 2.7x 24.2x 19.1x 14.6x NM 40.2x 30.1x NM 35.9xConstant Contact CTCT $24.05 66% $745 $0 $114 $631 3.6x 2.9x 2.4x 27.5x 18.1x 12.8x NM 38.3x 26.1x NM 34.8xLiveperson LPSN $11.86 88% $678 $0 $67 $611 5.6x 4.6x 3.8x 22.8x 17.5x 14.9x 39.5x 33.6x 28.7x NM 39.9xVocus VOCS $27.24 89% $575 $0 $99 $477 4.9x 4.2x 3.6x 25.6x 25.8x 18.1x 38.4x 35.4x 31.3x 36.9x 33.1xSciQuest SQI $16.48 89% $374 $0 $31 $343 8.1x 6.3x 5.4x 34.3x 33.0x 23.2x 48.5x NM 46.1x 44.0x 28.0xDemandTec DMAN $9.94 71% $346 $0 $67 $278 3.4x 3.0x 2.6x 37.7x 32.0x NM NM NM NM NM NM Zix ZIXI $3.81 78% $253 $0 $22 $231 7.0x 6.0x 5.0x 23.5x 18.1x 14.4x 29.3x 24.7x 19.4x 44.4x 22.4xConvio CNVO $11.42 88% $226 $0 $49 $177 2.5x 2.2x 2.0x 19.2x 15.9x 11.9x 30.1x 28.3x 21.4x 40.3x 30.2xSPS Commerce SPSC $16.70 90% $217 $0 $40 $176 4.0x 3.2x 2.7x 33.2x 35.6x 21.2x NM NM 34.7x NM NM Absolute Software ABT-CA $4.54 98% $214 $0 $30 $184 2.7x 2.4x 2.2x 49.9x 23.4x 24.3x NM NM NM 27.5x 15.5xInContact SAAS $3.97 95% $149 $12 $10 $150 1.8x 1.7x 1.5x 24.5x NM 34.1x NM NM NM NM NM SoundBite SDBT $2.41 73% $40 $0 $34 $6 0.1x 0.1x 0.1x NM NM 20.4x NM NM NM NM NM
Median: 6.2 x 5.0 x 4.1 x 27.5 x 24.6 x 19.6 x 38.9 x 34.5 x 30.3 x 36.9 x 32.2 xMean: 7.3 x 5.7 x 4.7 x 28.8 x 25.6 x 20.4 x 36.2 x 32.0 x 31.1 x 33.9 x 30.4 x
21
SaaS Public Comparables (cont’d)(Figures in Millions, except per share data)
MRQ EBITDARevenue Revenue Growth Gross EBITDA Margin EPS FCF 5yr EPS
Company 2010A 2011E 2012E '10-'11 '11-'12 Margin 2010A 2011E 2012E 2011E 2010A 2011E 2012E 2010A 2011E Growth
SaaSSalesforce.com $1,627 $2,124 $2,621 31% 23% 80% $313 $359 $546 17% $1.20 $1.30 $1.81 $368 $423 30%Ariba $380 $451 $521 19% 15% 63% $81 $102 $139 23% $0.78 $0.86 $1.12 $63 $71 19%SuccessFactors $206 $281 $337 37% 20% 70% $11 $13 $17 4% $0.07 $0.03 $0.11 $37 $51 26%Concur $307 $368 $450 20% 22% 72% $87 $100 $133 27% $0.78 $0.90 $1.16 $61 $62 23%NetSuite $193 $230 $274 19% 19% 70% $18 $21 $32 9% $0.13 $0.14 $0.28 $12 $21 26%OpenTable $99 $147 $192 49% 31% 72% $35 $55 $79 37% $0.87 $1.16 $1.74 $24 $37 39%RealPage $188 $256 $315 36% 23% 57% $35 $58 $78 23% $0.20 $0.35 $0.49 $17 $40 20%Athenahealth $246 $312 $395 27% 27% 61% $51 $61 $81 19% $0.64 $0.81 $1.09 $25 $23 34%Taleo $242 $310 $357 28% 15% 66% $63 $64 $79 21% $0.78 $0.93 $1.12 $23 $47 20%Ultimate $228 $270 $323 19% 20% 55% $33 $42 $69 15% $0.47 $0.73 $1.13 $21 $25 29%Blackboard $447 $532 $602 19% 13% 65% $112 $129 $151 24% $1.60 $1.83 $2.14 $90 $97 19%J2 Global Communications $255 $336 $356 31% 6% 78% $134 $165 $182 49% $1.96 $2.37 $2.50 $95 $116 12%Rightnow Technologies $186 $226 $267 22% 18% 68% $28 $30 $49 13% $0.49 $0.55 $0.81 $8 $13 20%IntraLinks $184 $218 $254 18% 16% 74% $63 $73 $88 34% $0.26 $0.52 $0.68 $11 $43 28%LogMeIn $101 $119 $145 18% 21% 91% $27 $30 $42 25% $0.85 $0.73 $0.92 $32 $36 24%Cornerstone OnDemand $47 $72 $107 54% 49% 71% ($6) ($11) ($2) (15%) ($1.11) ($0.30) ($0.07) ($2) ($4) 43%DealerTrack $244 $327 $368 34% 12% 44% $57 $68 $84 21% $0.53 $0.81 $0.92 ($9) $27 15%Responsys $85 $118 $146 39% 23% 51% $22 $21 $24 18% $0.20 $0.17 $0.20 $11 $8 25%Kenexa $196 $270 $307 38% 14% 61% $34 $43 $57 16% $0.62 $0.79 $1.05 $9 $22 21%Constant Contact $174 $218 $267 25% 23% 71% $23 $35 $49 16% $0.38 $0.63 $0.92 $8 $21 53%Liveperson $110 $133 $160 21% 20% 73% $27 $35 $41 26% $0.30 $0.35 $0.41 $6 $17 23%Vocus $97 $114 $131 18% 15% 80% $19 $18 $26 16% $0.71 $0.77 $0.87 $16 $17 24%SciQuest $42 $54 $63 28% 16% 77% $10 $10 $15 19% $0.34 $0.27 $0.36 $9 $13 NADemandTec $82 $94 $109 15% 16% 66% $7 $9 $4 9% ($0.03) $0.06 $0.16 ($9) $1 17%Zix $33 $39 $46 18% 19% 80% $10 $13 $16 33% $0.13 $0.15 $0.20 $6 $11 23%Convio $70 $79 $91 13% 15% 60% $9 $11 $15 14% $0.38 $0.40 $0.53 $6 $7 16%SPS Commerce $45 $55 $66 24% 20% 74% $5 $5 $8 9% $0.31 $0.26 $0.48 $3 $4 23%Absolute Software $68 $76 $85 12% 11% 73% $4 $8 $8 10% ($0.11) ($0.04) ($0.02) $8 $14 NAInContact $82 $88 $98 7% 12% 41% $6 $2 $4 2% ($0.03) ($0.12) ($0.04) $1 ($2) NASoundBite $39 $38 $38 (4%) (1%) 59% ($0) ($1) $0 (3%) ($0.11) ($0.16) ($0.07) ($2) ($2) NA
Median: 22% 18% 70% 18% 23%Mean: 24% 18% 68% 18% 25%
Source: Company filings, press releases, RBC Capital Markets institutional research, and other Wall Street sources. NM = Not Meaningful. NA = Not Available(1) Based on fully diluted shares outstanding using the Treasury Stock Method (TSM)(2) Enterprise Value = Equity Value + Total Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest – Cash & Cash Equivalents
2222
RBC Capital Markets Technology Group – Notable Recent Transactions
$215,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger & Joint Bookrunner
January 2011
A portfolio company of
Co-ManagerJanuary 2011
In support of the acquisition by:
$400,000,000ABL Facility
$2,500,000,000Sr. Credit Facilities &
Sr. Notes$81,000,000
Follow-on Offering
Co-ManagerJanuary 2011
$225,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger & Joint Bookrunner
December 2010
A portfolio company of
$190,000,000
Senior Secured Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger & Joint Bookrunner
December 2010
In support of the acquisition by:
$91,943,000
Follow-on Offering
Senior Co-ManagerMarch 2011
$2,200,000,000
has acquired
Financial Advisor & Joint Bookrunner on Senior Credit
FacilitiesApril 2011
Undisclosed
Financial Advisor to NewScaleApril 2011
has been acquired by
$770,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner &
Syndication Agent April 2011
In support of the Company’s Refinancing
$850,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger, Joint Bookrunner &
Syndication Agent April 2011
In support of the Company’s recapitalization
$86,250,000
Initial PublicOffering
Co-ManagerIn Registration
$2,250,000,000
5.375% Senior Notes
Co-ManagerJuly 2010
$1,000,000,000
3.875% Senior Notes
$660,100,000
Initial Public Offering
Joint Senior BookrunnerJuly 2010
$324,000,000
Lead Arranger & Sole BookrunnerJuly 2010
In support of the acquisition by:
Sr. Credit Facilities$300,000,000
Senior Secured Notes
Joint BookrunnerJuly 2010
A portfolio company of
$810,000,000
Acquisition Financing
Joint Bookrunner
July 2010
In support of the acquisition by:
$400,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger & BookrunnerDecember 2010
In support of the acquisition of MDA Info Products by:
Senior Co-ManagerDecember 2010 (Follow-On)
/ August 2010 (IPO)
Initial Public Offering
Follow-On Offering$266,500,000
$135,300,000
$72,500,000
has been acquired by
Financial Advisor to Phyworks
September 2010
$135,000,000
Financial Advisor & Bookrunner on FinancingJuly 2010
has acquired
$152,000,000
has been acquired by
Financial Advisor to Phoenix
November 2010
Term Loan / Credit Facility
UnderwriterNovember 2010
$1,370,000,000
A portfolio company of
$745,000,000
has agreed to acquire
Financial Advisor to Apax Partners and Lead Arranger on Financing
Announced March 2011
$1,675,000,000
Acquisition Financing
Joint Lead Arranger & Joint Bookrunner
Announced April 2011
In support of the acquisition of
$783,000,000
Initial Public Offering
Senior Co-ManagerMay 2011
$300,000,000
Initial Public Offering
Co-ManagerIn Registration
$100,000,000
Initial Public Offering
Co-ManagerIn Registration
has agreed to acquire
Financial Advisor to Sophos
Announced May 2011
Undisclosed
$172,750,000
Initial Public Offering
Co-Lead ManagerJanuary 2011
$1,220,000,000
has agreed to acquire
Financial Advisor to iGate and Joint Bookrunner
May 2011
$700,000,000
Senior Notes
Co-ManagerJuly 2010
In support of acquisition by:
$300,000,000
Senior Secured Credit Facilities
Joint Lead Arranger & Joint Bookrunner
November 2010
In support of acquisition of:
$300,000,000
Initial Public Offering
Co-ManagerIn Registration
$83,750,000
Follow-onOffering
Senior Co-ManagerMay 2011
$189,750,000
Initial Public Offering
Co-ManagerMay 2011
Sole BookrunnerPending
Senior Credit FacilitiesIn support of the acquisition by:
$170,000,000
Senior Credit Facilities
Co-Arranger & Syndication AgentOctober 2010
A portfolio company of
$230,000,000
Financial Advisor to Apax / Lead Arranger on Debt Financing
May 2011
$2,000,000,000
has acquired
$50,000,000
Private PlacementSole Placement Agent
February 2011
has received an equity investment from
$25,000,000
Private PlacementSole Placement Agent
May 2011
has received an equity investment from
23
RBC Capital Markets Technology Group – Senior Bankers
Ron EliasekManaging DirectorGroup Head(212) [email protected]
Technology Investment Banking
Product Specialists
Louis DraperManaging Director Software(415) [email protected]
Tim KarmanManaging Director Internet(415) [email protected]
Marc LayneManaging Director Communications Technology(212) [email protected]
P.A. WeinerManaging Director Financial Technology(212) [email protected]
David RamazettiDirector, Software(415) [email protected]
Dean GelsDirector(212) [email protected]
Robert LeeDirector, Semiconductors(415) [email protected]
Sean McCarthyDirector(212) [email protected]
Jevan AndersonManaging DirectorMergers & Acquisitions(415) [email protected]
Peter GantManaging DirectorMergers & Acquisitions(415) [email protected]
Paul NagleManaging DirectorInvestment Grade Debt(212) [email protected]
Michael NoonanManaging DirectorEquity Capital Markets(212) [email protected]
David WirdnamManaging DirectorLeveraged Finance(212) [email protected]
Michael RossoManaging DirectorEquity Private Placements(415) [email protected]
Nicholas DaifotisManaging DirectorHigh Yield Debt(212) [email protected]
Devon RitchDirectorMergers & Acquisitions(212) [email protected]