Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility; The case of Saudi Arabia.
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Transcript of Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility; The case of Saudi Arabia.
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Socioeconomic theory and differential fertility;
The case of Saudi Arabia.
Submitted by:Azizah Linjawi
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Saudi Arabia
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Aim of the paper
Socioeconomic changes
Differential fertility
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Questions of the study
• Does Saudi Arabia follow the development countries in fertility decline?
• Does the importance of economic and social development affect fertility patterns in Saudi?
• Are there any other cultural factors that may let Saudi follow another path in fertility changes?
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My theoretical model
Structural changes
Individual modernity(change in values and norms)
differential fertility
macro
micro
Socioeconomic changes
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Socioeconomic Structural changes
• Population growth.
• Urbanization.
• Education.
• Growth and per-capita income.
• Women status. (female participating in labor force , female education).
• Demographic transition.
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Population growth
• population growth
• Total population reached 21.4 million.
• 15.7 million Saudis and 5.7 million non-Saudis.
• population increase 17.4% between 1992-1999.
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Population growth
• Saudi Arabia, with one of the world's highest population growth rates at 3.2 % (estimated by the Saudi Central Department of Statistic Estimation), was for the first time seeking assistance from the UNFPA for health care management and health education programs
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Urbanization
• roughly 49% of the total population was urbanized as early as 1970.
• 12% of the population was living in cities with populations of one million or more.
• The percentage of the population living in cities reached 79% by 1995.
• Urbanization reached 86% in 2000, with 25% of the population living in cities of over one million people
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Jeddah city
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Education
• The CIA estimated in 2002 that Saudi Arabia had reached an overall literacy rate of 84.2% for males and 69.5% for females.
• female graduates rose from 13 to 21,721, ending in a total that slightly exceeded the number of male graduates.
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Female enrollment by thousands
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Pre-school
Elementary
Intermediate
Secondary
Higher
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Women status
• The number of women graduating from universities has grown at an average rate of 2.5 times that of male graduates during the last decade .
• the labor force of native Saudi workers will increase from 3.17 million to 8.26 million between 1999 and 2020 .
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Women participating in labor force
numbers of female particpating in labor force
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000
19-15
24-20
29-25
34-30
39-35
44-40
49-45
54-50
59-55
64-60
65+
age group
nu
mb
ers
of
fem
ale
2001
2000
1999
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Proportion of Women participating in labor force
labor force in 2002
0200000400000600000800000
19-15
24-20
29-25
34-30
39-35
44-40
49-45
54-50
59-55
64-60
65+
age group
Female
Male
Total
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Growth in per-capita income.
• Recently World Bank estimates show an average annual growth in GNP of only 2.3 during 1998-1999 despite rising oil revenues .
• CSIS report, population growth will be a critical threat to the Gulf countries of Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Yemen in the year’s between1990-2030. Oil wealth cannot offset a steady drop in per-capita income unless far more serious cuts in demographic growth take place.
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Population and per-capita income
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Demographic transition in Saudi Arabia
• 1980 the crude death rates dropped from 9 in 1000 people
• 4 in 1000 people in 1998, which is a decline of greater than half.
• Also the crude birth rates changed from 43 in 1000 people to 34 in1000 people.
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Death in Saudi in 1999
Total death
0100020003000400050006000
Age Groups
Num
bers
by
Thou
sand
s
female
male
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Differences in ASFR between 1991- 1999
Diffrences in Saudi Arabia ASFR
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
15 -19
20 -24
25 -29
30 -34
35 -39
40 -44
45 -49
Age group
AS
FR
TFR 1996
TFR 1999
TFR1991"
Source: Demographic survey 1999. Ministry of planning. Saudi Arabia.
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Differences n Saudi TFR
Diffrences in Saudi Arabia TFR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1991 1992-1996
1994-1996
1996 1999
Health
survey
Healthsurvey
Healthsurvey
healthsurvey
healthsurvey
DVsurvey
YEARS
TFR
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Conclusion
• All recent statistical data as indicated before demonstrated that there is an ongoing demographic transition, but with a slower rate of change between vital events (especially fertility) and the rate of growth.
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future question
• Can socioeconomic changes in Saudi Arabia aid in the changing of norms and values that are conducive to fertility decline?
?
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My Future question
•
differential fertility
?
Seriocomic change
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Answer
• Smile