Socio-economy of Indian States · INDIA TOMORROW Where are the ... 9 Jharkhand 19 Uttaranchal 9...
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Socio-economy of Indian States
Bibek DebroyLaveesh Bhandari
Indicus Analytics
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This Presentation
INDIA TODAYRating and Ranking StatesWhat is happening within the statesINDIA TOMORROWWhere are the states going towards?
Socio-economic progressEconomic growth
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Classification of States
Large-Small States: Large states have population of greater than 5 million and area greater than 35000 sq km
Example: Arunachal area similar to West Bengal’s area, population similar to Pondicherry’s populationExample: Delhi population similar to J&K’spopulation, similar to Goa’s area
Delhi and Pondicherry considered statesChief MinistersElected Assemblies
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States & UTs
1 A&N Islands1 Arunachal11 Kerala1 Andhra2 Chandigarh2 Delhi12 Madhya2 Assam3 D&N Haveli3 Goa13 Maharashtra3 Bihar4 Daman Diu4 Manipur14 Orissa4Chhattisgarh5 Lakshadweep5 Meghalaya15 Punjab5 Gujarat
6 Mizoram16 Rajasthan6 Haryana7 Nagaland17 TN7 Himachal8 Pondicherry18 UP8 J & K9 Sikkim19 Uttaranchal9 Jharkhand10 Tripura20 WB10 Karnataka
UTsSmallerLarger States
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CategoriesAgriculture: Cash crops, Productivity, IrrigationConsumer Market: TV, 2-wheeler, ExpenditureEducation: Literacy, primary school completion, states’ expenditureHealth: IMR, doctors, tap water, gender biasLaw & Order: Police, pending cases, violenceInfrastructure: Electricity, roads, telephone, LPGInvestment Environment: disputes, SSI sickness, commercial bank credit, public investmentBudget & Prosperity: Poverty, SGDP, State debt
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Ranking of States
All states are differentThey have to be made comparableLarger States, Smaller States, UTsNormalization
Ratios and percentages Per capita
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Infrastructure
Access to ElectricityRoad lengthBank branchesLPG connectionsPost officesTelephone density
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Consumer Markets
TV ownershipRural households spending > Rs 615 per person per monthUrban households spending > Rs1120 per person per monthBank depositsTwo wheelers
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Education
Literacy rate10 plus children completed primaryGirls to boys enrolled in elementary schoolTeacher student ratioExpenditure on elementary education
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Law & Order, Justice
Police strengthPending to total cases in courtsIncidence of murderIncidence of kidnappingIncidence of rape & molestations
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Health
IMRMale to female IMRBirths assisted Access to tap waterDoctorsSex ratioExpenditure on health and family welfare
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Investment Attractiveness
Public administration GSDPState’s capital expenditureBank creditIndustrial disputesGross capital formationIndustrial workersSick SSIs
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Agriculture
Cash cropsAgriculture GSDPElectricity consumptionFood grain yieldLoans to agricultureIrrigated to sown area
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Budget & Prosperity
State’s capital expenditureTotal debtSales revenue ofSEBsPer capita GSDP UrbanizationInflationPoverty
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Overall Performance
AgricultureConsumer marketsEducationLaw & order, justiceHealthInfrastructureInvestment attractivenessBudget & prosperity
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How rapidly are regions growing
Motor SpiritDieselCreditDepositsCereals
R-Square of 93% with GSDP
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Breadth of Social Progress
1. Demography: 0-6 sex ratio2. Education: Literacy, female to male literacy,
gross enrollment ratio in elementary school3. Health: IMR, fully immunized children4. Prosperity: Poverty, Hunger
An equal weighted index constructed for all 593 districts
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Socio-economic status
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States in 2020
1. Prosperity: SGDP, Poverty2. Health: Life expectancy, IMR3. Education: Literacy4. Demography: Age wise population5. Projections based on trends since
nineties
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2000
Andh
ra P
rade
sh
Assa
m
Bih
ar
Chh
attis
garh
Guj
arat
Har
yana
Jhar
khan
d
Kar
nata
ka
Ker
ala
Mad
hya
Prad
esh
Mah
aras
htra
Oris
sa
Punj
ab
Raj
asth
an
Tam
il N
adu
Utt
ar P
rade
sh
Wes
t Ben
gal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
What will happen to the statesPoverty
2020
Andh
ra P
rade
sh
Assa
m
Bih
ar
Chh
attis
garh
Guj
arat
Har
yana
Jhar
khan
d
Kar
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ka
Ker
ala
Mad
hya
Prad
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Mah
aras
htra
Oris
sa
Punj
ab
Raj
asth
an
Tam
il N
adu
Utt
ar P
rade
sh
Wes
t Ben
gal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
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What will happen to the statesStandard of Living
20002020
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What will happen to the states
Inequality between states will be higher MigrationThis internal migration will be affected by Economic freedom
States that provide greater levels of freedom to carry out economic activities will attract
and retain human resources
Inequality, Migration & Freedom
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Economic Freedom and Migration
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50Economic Freedom Index
Out
mig
ratio
n as
% o
f Hom
e Pop
.
.
BiharUP
MP
WB Assam
Orissa
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What will the states be like in 2020
International ComparisonBased on Standard of Living (Purchasing Power Parity, US dollars today)
How will the standard of living in the states in 2020 be like, in terms of other countries
today
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= Bulgaria,Turkey
Andhra= Angola,
IndonesiaChhattisgarh
= Russia,Saudi Arabia
Gujarat
= Brazil,Mauritius
Haryana
= Pakistan, Zimbabwe
Assam
=Uganda, Bangladesh
Bihar
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= Turkey,South Africa
Himachal
= Indonesia,Lebanon
J & K
= Zimbabwe,Sri Lanka
Jharkhand
= South Africa/ChilHungary
Karnataka
= Iran ,Russia
Kerala
=Angola,Indonesia
MP
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= Mexico,Argentina
Maharashtra
= Ghana , Zimbabwe
Orissa
= Brazil,Mauritius
Punjab
=Lebanon,Iran
Rajasthan
= Russia,Saudi Arabia
TN
=Vietnam, Indonesia
UP
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= Romania,Russia
WB
=New Zealand,Japan
Delhi
= Spain,Switzerland
Goa
= France,USA
Pondicherry
= Japan,USA
Chandigarh
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Thank You