Societal Impacts, Social Science, and Weather: Making Good Decisions

Heather Lazrus1

1Social Science Woven into Meteorology (SSWIM), NOAA and the University of Oklahoma

With special thanks toEve Gruntfest1,

Julie Demuth2 , Jeff Lazo2 & Melissa Tuttle Carr3

2National Center for Atmospheric Research3Independent Consultant CNN

Decision Support SymposiumAmarillo, TX - 26 Oct 2010

Integrating meteorology, emergency response and the social sciences can promote a safer and more informed

society

• Introduce and illustrate the connection between operational meteorology and hydrology and social sciences

• Facilitate a dialogue for future efforts• Think specifically decision support

Today I’ll…

Symposium themes – how do societal impacts and social sciences fit in?

• Emergency Response • Preparedness • Relationships • Societal Impacts • Big Impacts In Small

Places

Decisions – behavior, culture,risk, priorities, expectations,technologies, communication, goals … CONTEXT

Managing ExpectationsI’m not here to…• Say social sciences have all the answers• To make you social scientists • To add to your workload

I am here to…• Provide some answers, information, and ideas• Offer ideas for collaboration between meteorology and

social sciences • Answer your questions about social science!

Today’s outline

1. Social science 2. Societal impacts3. Research examples and initial lessons4. Collaborations: enhancing decisions5. How to get engaged?

Vision SSWIM envisions collaborative research & partnerships

between the social sciences & meteorology, climatology, & hydrology to enhance societal relevance of research & practice & reduce risks from atmospheric & other hazards

Mission SSWIM creatively & sustainably weaves social science

concepts & methodologies into the fabric of weather & climate research & practice through academic & professional activities locally, nationally & globally

SSWIM www.sswim.orgSocial Science Woven into Meteorology

Social science is different than societal impacts

Societal impacts can be examined scientifically

AND societal impacts can be addressed using forecasters’ expertise

BUT using the word “social” does not count as doing social science

Societal impacts• Societal – of or pertaining to the life, welfare, and

relations of human beings• Impact – the effect of one thing on another• Societal impacts – the effect of weather and forecasts

on human life, welfare, and relations– E.g., impacts – economic impact (crop loss), health impacts

(heat stroke), emotional impact (property damage)

We want to respond to societal impacts to reduce loss of life and property

Ask – the questions coming up today• Who will be impacted?• Are people…

awake/sleeping/driving/harvesting/fishing/ constructing/graduating/getting married?

• What has happened to this point?– Have there been fatalities?– What are the TV stations saying?

• Have earlier events been “missed”?(Courtesy of Daniel Nietfeld, SOO, WFO OAX)

Specific ways forecasters can consider societal impacts in forecasts

Societal impacts

Societal impacts of Weather ForecastSnow accumulation Roads impassable Schools close earlyHeavy rainfall Flash floods Roads closedHail Car dealership damage Car dealerships move

inventory

Tornado Mobile home park destroyed

Mobile home park residents take shelter

Lightning Grass fires ignite Anticipate fire & strategically move equipment & fire fighters

Weather & forecasts have impacts on society Forecasts mitigate the impacts to society from weather

Ex societal impact - Rush hour tornado (OR – Kevin Starbuck’s Winter Storm Example)• Environmental conditions – favorable to produce a

tornado• Societal impact – urban area with three interstate

highways at rush hour• Action – a well warned event that conveyed a message to

stay off of the roads • Effect – highways empty at rush hour

No research went into this, but the societal impact was addressed beneficially based on forecasters’ understanding of local area and population

What is social science?

Social scientists study aspects of human society – Beliefs & values– Ways of knowing– Ways of communicating– Behavior

Physical & social

scientific processes

Social science includes diverse disciplinesSocial science is an umbrella term commonly used to refer to many fields that have different approaches and topics• Anthropology• Geography• Communication• Psychology• Political Science• Economics• Education• Sociology

Diverse methodologiesQualitative & quantitative approaches• Interviews

– Structured– Semi-structured– Open interviews

• Surveys• Direct observations• Participatory activities• Focus groups

Some social science questions

• Who uses watches & outlooks?• When is watch & outlook information used?• How is the information best communicated?

• i.e., twitter, radio, sirens, environmental cues• How is watch information & uncertainty understood

• i.e., linguistic and cultural differences• How do people respond according to professional &

personal responsibilities?• What are the economic, cultural, social values of

watches & outlooks?

Ex of social science research – tornado• What vulnerability characteristics

influence people’s ability to take shelter?

• How does one’s perception of place influence how they perceive a tornado threat?

• How does one’s mental model of a tornado influence how they perceive a threat?

Ex of social science research – tornado• How do people use social media to get

information during a tornado event?• How do people perceive how an

automated weather call will alert them … and how does this influence how they respond?

• How do forecasters’ knowledge and perceptions of their audiences influence the content of their warnings?

Remember, meteorologists are humans too!

SSWIM researchPhased Array Radar Innovative Sensing Experiment PARISE (w. P. Heinselman & D. Ladue)

• Examines the influence of high temporal resolution radar data on forecaster’s decision making & warning lead time

• Observed 12 forecasters with 2 different storm scenarios & radar update speeds

• Analysis of forecasters' actions, timing, reflections on the process

Initial findings presented at National Weather Association Tucson 2010

SSWIM researchWarn on Forecast (National Severe Storms Laboratory)

• Warn-on-Forecast will extend convective scale hazard warning lead times with numerical model forecasts

• What is the utility of extended warning lead times, for whom and when?

• A new warning response paradigm?

• Success of WOF requires that it is developed in socially relevant ways that address informational needs and provide appropriate decision-support

WOF - Concept

Stensrud, D. et al. 2009. “Convective Scale Warn-on-Forecast System: A Vision for 2020” BAMS

SSWIM research – Partnership with HWT & Global Systems Division NOAA 2009-2010

Integrated Hazard Information Services (IHIS)SSWIM is involved in developing IHIS to integrate partner & user needs1. Interviews (September - October 2009)2. Workshop Boulder, CO (October 2009)3. Ethnographic field research: In-depth interviews & field

research with emergency managers & broadcasters (2010-11)

Jen Spinney, anthropologist, joins SSWIM for one year project

ConceptualDevelopment

Prototyping Implementation Testing & Evaluation

OperationalUse

Roles

Physical scientists

Developers

Forecasters

Social scientists

Research-to-Operations – IHIS and beyond

Partners and users including emergency managers, broadcast meteorologists, others

Baseline data collectione.g. surveys, interviews

Testbed Observations,experiments

Demos,scenarios

Success metrics

Observations, ethnography

Qualitative &

quantitative activities

Adapted from Global Systems Division 2009

Evaluation at every stage

SSWIM - part of the IHIS Team An inclusive Research-to-Operations conceptual model

Changing the paradigm of hazardous weather warnings

PublicsPublicsWeather

Forecasters

Private Sector & MediaEmergency Managers & 1st Responders

6Developers

Researchers

Temporal, spatial, & probabilistic information in weather forecasting & warning processes & decision-making

N-S

S

pace

Sca

le

E

-W

Time Scale

0 km

100 Km

1000 km

100 Km

1000 km

6lead

rea

l

Jan 31

5 4 3 2 1Feb 1 Feb 2 Feb

3Feb 4 Feb 5

First outlook issued

1st watch issued (2pm)

2nd watch issued (3pm)

1st warning issued 9pm

Nashville sirens sounded

13 fatalities44 injuries Near Lafayette, TN

Awareness raised among emergency managers, and other officials

Hospitals, Schools, Events?

26 tornado warnings issued8 severe storm warnings

TIME & SPACE

Are

a (K

m2 )

10 Km

10 Km

Future research is needed to fill in this timeline with a more representative sample of the decisions to be made & by whom

We need more than more accurate information to save lives

We need to understand why people behave as they do

EXAMPLE: Changing “public education” and warning response paradigms

Whose decisions? The “right” message is ONE piece of the puzzle to change behaviors

• Drivers know there are warnings & where hazardous low water crossings are but THEY NEED TO GO to work

• Potential to lose their job is perceived as a greater risk than potentially dying while driving across flooded road

• Better information alone is NOT going to change behavior • Weather warnings are part of complex decision making

with many other considerations – BEHAVIORS must be understood to improve warning responses

Evaluate public education efforts - Before, during, after

Keep in mind…• Social sciences are not about controlling people … they

are about understanding people– E.g., we’ll never be able to keep all meteorologists from going

outside to look at a tornado• There is no “correct” behavior• Decisions are contextual, and weather sometimes isn’t

the main factor (again, the need for understanding)• Social sciences have taught us a lot, but weather-

specific research is still in its infancy

When helping people make the “right” (best, appropriate) decisions, keep in mind… decisions

depend on the context!

Humans are like the atmosphere…

…they’re bothnon-linear, dynamic, and

seemingly chaotic!BUT, there are things we can learn

Collaborations are key to enhance decision making• Social scientists, NWS, and NWS partners

(emergency managers, broadcasters, others) work together– Value and integrate each others’ expertise– Listen to and learn from each other– Co-produce new knowledge

• Understanding context – political, economic, cultural priorities, and goals (e.g., media v forecast)

• Collaborations will promote a safer and more informed society

Some NWS resources & suggestions• WAS*Isers & friends

– NWS participants (including the SOOs!), Broadcasters, Emergency Managers, Researchers, Social scientists

• NWS social science focal point – Jen Sprague• SAFER workshop

– Craig Schmidt & Darone Jones • Water & Society * Integrated Studies

– Wendy Pearson (Central Region)

• Integrated Warning Team (IWT) workshops (just a sample)– Julie Adolphson & Andy Bailey (Kansas City/Pleasant Hill)– Jim Meyer & Dan Nietfeld (Omaha/Valley)– Ray Wolf (Quad Cities)– Mike Coyne & Krissy Scotten (Huntsville)

WAS*IS• WAS*IS is an important capacity-building effort

– Builds an interdisciplinary community of people passionate about social science and meteorology

– Promotes new ways of thinking about issues that fall at the interface of meteorology and society

– Workshops provide a forum to discuss these issues

WAS* I S®

weather & society * integrated studies

www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis/

CULTURE CHANGE

Sponsored by the NCAR Societal Impacts Program

• WAS*IS is not a research program– Can inspire collaborations– Can spur research ideas

Join the societal impacts discussion board!http://www.rap.ucar.edu/forums/phpBB2/

Key take-home points• Ultimate goal of weather forecasting is to create

societal value by providing usable information for decision making

• We’re not trying to add to workloads• Societal impacts and social science are relevant to

NWS’s mission … not just buzzwords!• Social sciences use the scientific process• Societal impacts and social sciences both have a role …

but they’re not the same … and each has its place• Collaborations!

THANK YOU!Heather Lazrus – lazrus@ou.edu

www.sswim.org